Week 2 delivered a stern warning against always trusting your studs.

I went against the grain by ranking Russell Wilson as my QB6 against the Bears. Making matters worst, he slotted behind Aaron Rodgers (vs. Minnesota) and Tom Brady (at Jacksonville) and ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Could I really trust a Week 1 star over a future Hall of Famer? Yes, I certainly should have.

The benchmark for an acceptable fantasy quarterback continues to climb. Wilson, Rodgers, and Brady all delivered double-digit points, but they also all finished outside the demanding position’s top 15. The experts were right to doubt Wilson’s ability to circumvent a burgeoning defense and woeful supporting cast. Yet aside from that flop, I fared better than Week 1. James White and Evan Engram had strong showings, and my skepticism regarding Deshaun Watson, LeSean McCoy, and Robby Anderson was well-founded. (Let’s not talk about Ryan Grant.) Here’s another round of discrepancies between my Week 3 rankings and the standard (non-PPR) ECR.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF at KC) – ECR: QB11; My Rank: QB7
I’m a bit surprised to see Jimmy Garoppolo outside the top 10. He’s perched behind Sam Darnold as the season’s QB22, but let’s look at both outings. Struggling at Minnesota is certainly understandable. While he produced a boring 206 passing yards for two touchdowns against Detroit, this was a pure volume problem. A 30-27 win would suggest aerial fireworks, but he completed 18 of just 26 pass attempts on 60 plays. They started two drives near the red zone on a fumble recovery and long kickoff return. Matt Breida also stole his thunder with a Week-high 138 rushing yards. Don’t expect a similar outcome against the Chiefs, who capitulated 860 passing yards and six touchdowns to Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. They respectively finished those weeks as the QB3 and 1. This showdown brandishes Week 3’s highest over-under line (55.5), and the 49ers are 6.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead. That sounds like the perfect game script for Garoppolo to assume more responsibility and chase 400 yards in a shootout. I also have Pierre Garcon six spots (WR36) ahead of the consensus, and I’ll elevate my WR34 rank for Marquise Goodwin if he’s cleared to return.

Overvalued: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT at TB) – ECR: QB7; My Rank: QB10
Like most experts, I was all in on Ben Roethlisberger at home against the Chiefs. I ranked him as my No. 2 quarterback, which proved one spot too low. Perhaps now I’m giving too much weight to the road factor. The weather contributed to a sloppy Week 1 at Cleveland, and Monday night’s matchup against the red-hot Buccaneers looks like another shootout in the making. Only Kansas City has relinquished more passing yards than Tampa Bay’s 887, and only the Eagles have allowed fewer yards on the ground. Just to be clear, I’m not saying to sit Roethlisberger. There are simply other matchups I like more. Garoppolo should follow his lead and pile up yards against the Chiefs. Matthew Stafford looks poised to throw another 40-50 times in a high-scoring loss to the Patriots, who were just embarrassed by Blake Bortles. Deshaun Watson occupied this space in Weeks 1 and 2, but he should have more time than usual to find DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller if Olivier Vernon (ankle) sits out again for the Giants. I have him a spot lower, but it wouldn’t be crazy to prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick in the same contest.

Running Back

Undervalued: Latavius Murray (MIN vs. BUF) – ECR: RB34; My Rank: RB28
Earlier in the week, this section may have gone to Dalvin Cook. He claimed to have merely left Sunday’s tie early because of cramps, but it’s now clear he’s dealing with a more significant hamstring injury. Why would a Super Bowl contender rush back their 23-year-old running back returning from a torn ACL for a Week 3 contest they’re favored to win by 16.5 points? The ECR seems to already take those concerns into account, as the RB10 would easily merit top-five status if healthy against the Bills. Latavius Murray, however, has yet to receive an accompanying boost. Buffalo has relinquished four rushing touchdowns to four different running backs. That doesn’t include Austin Ekeler, who etched out 98 total yards in Week 2’s 31-20 win. Even if Cook starts, Murray should receive more work than usual before taking over as the featured back once the game gets out of hand. Last year he handled 48 red-zone rushes, the NFL’s fourth-highest mark behind Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Melvin Gordon. He’s an RB1 if Cook sits, but still a flex play if opening in a supporting role.

Overvalued: David Johnson (ARI vs. CHI) – ECR: RB10; My Rank: RB14
Four spots isn’t a huge difference, but it’s jarring to see David Johnson slotted outside the top 10 and still think, “That’s not low enough.” Configuring 13 rushes for 48 yards against the Rams was bad but not shocking considering the 34-0 final score. The fact that he caught one of two targets for three yards, however, is a seismic problem. The Bears are favored by 5.5 points-which frankly doesn’t seem high enough — on the road. They have relinquished the fourth-fewest rushing yards (143) through two games, so don’t expect Johnson to enjoy a high volume of efficiency on the ground against Khalil Mack and Co. He needs to pad his stats as a pass-catcher, which is far from a safe bet since the 2016 fantasy MVP is no longer running vertical routes from the slot. To his credit, Cardinals coach Steve Wilks at least addressed the need to deploy him more creatively in open space. Yet Johnson can’t be treated like an RB1 in a brutal matchup until the Cardinals turn those intentions into a reality.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Michael Crabtree (BAL vs. DEN) – ECR: WR38; My Rank: WR30
It’s a bit strange to see the pack sour on Michael Crabtree following a game in which he caught five of 10 targets for 56 yards. I found it assuring to see him deliver a decent return without reaching the end zone. Yet make no mistake, the touchdowns are why he remains a veritable WR3. He deposited eight scores in each of the last three seasons and opened 2018 with another end-zone visit. The 31-year-old logged five more snaps than John Brown in each of Baltimore’s two games, so I’m not ready to flip them in my rankings just yet. (The ECR has Brown one spot behind Crabtree.) A Week 3 tilt against Denver feels tougher than it actually is at first glance. The Broncos have allowed 9.0 yards per pass attempt to Russell Wilson and Derek Carr, the latter of whom completed 29 of 32 pass attempts. Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall, and Seth Roberts all found pay dirt, and Amari Cooper also caught all 10 targets for 116 yards. The secondary could take another hit with cornerback Adam Jones nursing a hamstring injury. Perhaps there’s some bias in play since I liked Crabtree significantly more than Brown entering the season, but I only have the latter two spots below his WR39 ECR.

Overvalued: Brandin Cooks (LAR vs LAC) – ECR: WR15; My Rank: WR21
This difference has caused me to second-guess myself. I thought I was acknowledging Brandin Cooks’s strong start (12 catches for 246 yards) by bumping him up to WR21. Compared to the consensus, I apparently remain a pessimist. He’s clearly playing a meatier role than Sammy Watkins, and only Tyreek Hill has compiled more catches of 20-plus yards than Cooks, who ties Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook with six. He jumped into the top 20 of my rest-of-season rankings, and there’s upside against a Chargers defense that has surrendered 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Yet they have also limited opponents to the second-lowest completion percentage (55.0) and could stick Casey Hayward on the former Saints and Patriots star. Set and forget Cooks in season-long starting lineups, but limit any DFS exposure to tournaments.

Tight End

Undervalued: Jack Doyle (IND at PHI) – ECR: TE12; My Rank: TE9
This could change by Sunday depending on Jack Doyle’s health. He has missed practice with a hip injury after catching just two of five targets for 20 yards in Week 2. If he sits, Colts teammate Eric Ebron takes his spot in the top 10. Only the doctors can deter me from starting Doyle as a high-volume option. While Ebron scored a touchdown in the second straight game, he played just 16 snaps to Doyle’s 59. Only Cook, Zach Ertz, and Travis Kelce have received more targets than Doyle (15), who should still get plenty of check-downs from Andrew Luck despite the disappointing Week 2. This is also a case of the entire position stinking. TE9 isn’t as good as it seems.

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham (GB at WAS) – ECR: TE4; My Rank: TE7
All is forgiven after one great game from Jimmy Graham. I’m not sold. Before amassing six catches for 95 yards in a tie with Minnesota, he recorded a combined 10 receptions for 81 yards in the previous six games. The guy everyone drafted for touchdowns has yet to receive a red-zone target. This could look foolish if that changes at Washington, but I still view Graham as a touchdown-dependent option who can easily get lost in the fold again if Aaron Rodgers instead directs those quick passes to Randall Cobb. I’d rather play a healthy Jordan Reed — who has developed into a safety valve and primary red-zone target for Alex Smith – or George Kittle against the Chiefs. After catching all seven targets, Evan Engram also supplants Graham in hopes of more garbage-time and/or red-zone heroics.

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