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    Andrew Erickson | Mon, Jul 13th 2026, 7:06am EDT

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2026)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your league mates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average.

A common theme with “bust” candidates is when players become overvalued based on bulletproof roles/situations that turn out not to be what they thought they would be.

Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players below. And you can check out which experts are higher or lower than our expert consensus rankings using our Fantasy Football Rankings Comparison Tools.

Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

Quarterbacks

There are several factors to consider when identifying the next fantasy football QB busts.

Typically, these signal-callers follow a similar pattern. They overperform (high or career passing TD%, PPG > expected PPG) one year, and their draft price increases as a result.

But then they fail to meet high expectations, leaving fantasy football managers in a tough spot. After all, when you pay up for a premium QB, you’re less likely to invest in a second QB in 1QB formats.

Simply put: Don’t draft last year’s points at this inflated price tag.

In the chart below, you’ll find the comparison between expected PPG (xPPG), PPG, and ADP for the 2026 season. According to Fantasy Points data, PPG/xPPG are the two most strongly correlated fantasy football QB stats for the following season (which makes sense intuitively).

No QB that scored top-5 in xPPG last season is being drafted as a top-5 fantasy football QB this season. And none of those five QBs underperformed or overperformed by more than one fantasy point per game (suggesting stickiness year over year).

Only two QBs being drafted in the top 5 were top-14 scorers last season…

Kyler Murray (−2.7) and Geno Smith (−2.2) actually scored below expectations, so their lower PPG isn’t just bad luck and is probably more tied to variance. Don’t get me wrong – they played poorly last season, but probably not as badly as the final numbers would suggest.

But in better 2026 situations, there’s a case to be made that they might be undervalued – particularly in 2QB/Superflex formats.

You will also see which QBs overperformed the most – and they are going very high in ADP (Josh Allen, Drake Maye, and Lamar Jackson). Not an auto-fade by any means (the best players overperform because they are elite), but noteworthy given their price is reflected by last year’s performance. They don’t look nearly like the top values at the position, even with their “elite upside.”

Maye is my No. 1-ranked QB as I am bullish on him alongside A.J. Brown. With AJB before last season, Jalen Hurts was averaging 23 PPG. Romeo Doubs also added to the fold for New England? Look for the Patriots’ red-zone offense to drastically improve in 2026. Give me all the long-shot TD bets on these Patriots WRs.

ADP Rank QB 2026 ADP 2025 PPG xPPG PPG +/- Games
10 Trevor Lawrence 9.6 20.9 21.1 -0.2 18
13 Patrick Mahomes II 12.8 20.9 20.9 0.0 14
11 Matthew Stafford 12.0 21.3 20.4 +0.9 20
8 Dak Prescott 8.4 18.9 19.9 -0.9 17
6 Caleb Williams 6.2 18.8 19.9 -1.1 19
1 Josh Allen 1.0 23.0 19.8 +3.2 19
9 Justin Herbert 9.2 18.5 19.5 -1.0 17
12 Jaxson Dart 12.2 20.7 19.3 +1.2 14
17 Kyler Murray 17.4 16.6 19.2 -2.7 5
28 Jacoby Brissett 28.4 17.2 19.0 -1.8 14
15 Bo Nix 15.0 18.7 18.9 -0.2 18
14 Brock Purdy 13.2 19.7 18.3 +1.3 11
7 Jalen Hurts 7.4 19.1 18.2 +1.0 17
4 Drake Maye 4.4 20.8 18.1 +2.7 21
3 Joe Burrow 3.0 17.4 17.5 -0.1 8
25 Daniel Jones 24.8 18.3 17.2 +1.1 13
5 Jayden Daniels 4.6 17.0 17.1 0.0 7
18 Baker Mayfield 18.6 16.8 16.5 +0.3 17
19 Jordan Love 18.8 16.9 15.8 +1.1 16
23 C.J. Stroud 23.0 14.9 15.7 -0.7 16
26 Bryce Young 25.8 15.1 15.4 -0.2 17
16 Jared Goff 15.0 18.5 15.3 +3.2 17
2 Lamar Jackson 2.0 17.4 15.2 +2.1 13
20 Tyler Shough 19.2 15.1 15.1 0.0 11
37 J.J. McCarthy 43.0 13.9 15.0 -1.0 10
60 Spencer Rattler 49.0 11.9 15.0 -3.1 9
65 Davis Mills 52.5 11.3 15.0 -3.8 6
30 Geno Smith 29.4 12.7 14.9 -2.2 15
27 Aaron Rodgers 27.6 14.0 14.7 -0.7 17
22 Sam Darnold 23.0 15.3 14.2 +1.1 20
34 Michael Penix Jr. 33.6 13.9 14.2 -0.2 9
24 Cam Ward 23.2 12.2 14.1 -1.9 17
38 Justin Fields 44.0 15.5 14.0 +1.5 9
31 Tua Tagovailoa 31.0 12.5 13.4 -0.8 14
44 Joe Flacco 51.0 12.2 13.3 -1.1 13
63 Marcus Mariota 54.5 12.4 13.0 -0.6 11
49 Tyrod Taylor 42.0 11.1 12.8 -1.7 6
52 Jameis Winston 50.5 12.3 12.3 0.0 3
35 Kirk Cousins 35.0 11.1 11.9 -0.8 10
46 Mac Jones 50.5 11.6 11.6 0.0 12
62 Jake Browning 50.0 11.3 11.6 -0.2 5
32 Shedeur Sanders 33.0 12.1 11.1 +1.0 8

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

Now, Josh Allen is another interesting QB to look at. Considering he is the consensus No. 1 QB across all platforms and the 1.01 in Superflex formats. But last year wasn’t his best.

In 2025, he hit a six-year low in passing yards per game (215.8), TD passes (25), and fantasy points per game (22.0). The rushing production drove his fantasy football production, and that doesn’t seem like it will go away anytime soon.

New Bills HC and former OC Joe Brady commented this offseason that, “There’s gonna come a time in his career where his [Allen] legs aren’t gonna be able to do what he can do, and he’s gonna have to become a true pocket passer — we’re not there yet. We know he’s going to scramble, so you’ve gotta count those scrambles, knowing that those are gonna be some of the runs. The importance of the game and where we are in the season are when some of the truly designed runs come into play.”

Eventually, Allen’s rushing will fall off, but it does not appear that is the plan for Buffalo in 2026. However, I do think it might change sooner rather than later. The Bills’ QB suffered a foot injury toward the end of last season. And Buffalo had the league’s healthiest offense in 2025, according to adjusted games lost (FTN).

Which team was the healthiest in 2024? The Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson was not fun to have in fantasy football last season.

Throw in the fact that Allen also faces the Houston Texans on the road in Week 1, and it could be tough sledding to start the year. He has struggled in the last two matchups against Houston.

So for me, players to avoid among QBs (from a zoomed-out perspective) are just very early-round QBs. Drafting a QB first off the board is not part of my perfect strategy.

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

Jalen Hurts is the one QB being drafted inside the top-7 despite finishing outside the top-12 in xPGG last year. But given the circumstances of last year’s Eagles offense – disgruntled A.J. Brown, OL injuries, and incompetent offensive playcalling – it’s actually impressive that he overperformed and still finished as the QB8 in PPG. Posted a career-high passing TD rate (S/O tight end Dallas Goedert).

I opened the 2026 fantasy football season lower on Hurts for several reasons.

It’s another new offensive coordinator for the Eagles. Sean Mannion, the former GB coach and Packers assistant over the last two seasons. He last played in 2023. Just turned 34 years old in April. He was promoted to quarterbacks coach the following year after Tom Clements retired. And recall that the Eagles’ search for a new OC was very lengthy and exhaustive.

Obviously, getting rid of former OC Kevin Patullo (now the Miami Dolphins’ passing game coordinator) had to happen, given how poor the Eagles’ passing game looked at times. So, theoretically, Mannion (although a first-time play-caller) should be an upgrade. The net positive of the overarching plan is to install a McVay/Shanahan-type offense in Philadelphia.

More under-center plays, for example. Run game marrying the play-action game. Full read by Dave Zangaro for a more in-depth projection of this new-look offense.

The Eagles also brought in former Buccaneers OC Josh Grizzard as the new pass game coordinator.

Coaching changes aside, it’s worth noting that Hurts has been a disappointment relative to ADP over the last two seasons. Under his ADP in back-to-back seasons (drafted top-5), he did not return top-5 fantasy football QB production.

He’s been the QB8 overall in back-to-back seasons, finishing as the QB7 in PPG (19.1), scoring under 20 PPG.

The rushing was also down across the board (career lows) in 2025.

However, that might be more tied to the playcalling than to Hurts’ unwillingness to take off and run. But HC Nick Sirianni has echoed that they do want to make sure Hurts is healthy for the long run – so there is some push/pull with his 2026 rushing projection. QBs typically don’t run more as their careers progress, so I do think there is some concern about Hurts getting back to super-elite rushing. That being said, it’s not as if his rushing will be totally evaporated. He is also still only 27 years old (turning 28 in August).

The Eagles’ offensive line is mostly intact from last season, but the unit still seems very fragile, given Lane Johnson‘s age (36).

OG Landon Dickerson was mulling retirement but has decided to return for the 2026 season (signed a new two-year deal). Center Cam Jurgens has been seeking and receiving stem cell treatment to deal with his several injuries.

Eagles long-time OL coach Jeff Stoutland is gone. No. 1 WR A.J. Brown is gone. The Eagles drafted two pass-catchers in the first two rounds, but they are still rookies. How quickly they will impact the offense remains to be seen.

Hurts is being drafted in the middle of the top-12 QBs, and basically where he has been finishing the last two seasons.

Being drafted outside the elite tier. In the middle, where you typically don’t want to draft QBs. It’s not to say he can’t be another mid-range fantasy football QB1, but the risk might outweigh the reward.

The Eagles were also the 2nd-healthiest offense in the NFC last year (second-healthiest team overall). I think that the general offensive concerns are somewhat warranted. It might take some time for the offense to gel. They lost an elite OL coach. And that shouldn’t be understated, given the importance of coaching’s impact on OLs. Going from AJB to rookie WR Makai Lemon in 2026 is a downgrade.

So I’m still hesitant to be super bullish on Hurts, just given the factors I’ve laid out. I’ll admit that his draft price has fallen since earlier this offseason, making him feel much less like a bust risk. However, I just find myself gravitating toward other QBs later in drafts, such as Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, or Trevor Lawrence.

Have to also keep in mind that despite all the turmoil this Eagles’ passing game endured last season, Hurts posted the highest passing TD rate of his career (a number that typically regresses after a career year).

Jared Goff (QB – DET)

I’d also call out Jared Goff as a potential regression candidate, given how well he performed above expectations, but I did this last year to little success. However, the Lions QB’s 2025 season-long numbers can be a little bit misleading, given he busted in 38% of his games last season. And despite his top-12 finish overall, he only finished as a weekly fantasy football top-12 QB in six of his 17 games played (35%). Better in best ball? Probably. And hence why I am a tad bit lower on him versus consensus ECR and ADP, given that he also offers zero rushing.

The most telling overperformer from last year to avoid is less than very obvious (Daniel Jones is by far the easiest negative QB regression candidate based on the Colts’ historic offensive pace in 2025).

Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)

Note that Jaxson Dart averaged north of 20 PPG in his starts last season (19.3 XPPG). However, he does concern me a bit, given how much of that was related to his rushing production. New OC Matt Nagy does not inspire me with a ton of confidence, and not having WR Malik Nabers at 100% to start the year also concerns me about the Giants’ second-year QB. Still in a 1QB league, he has so much upside. I could see the case where, in a 2QB league, you take a “safer” option such as Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy.

All in all, the PPG/XPPG chart analysis does a better job of finding QB values in the late rounds – and suggesting avoiding the very top of the QB ADP (which I tend to agree with, considering my pseudo late-round QB approach).

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Don’t chase last year’s passing TD efficiency unless we have a large sample size of a player’s career TD rate. If last year was an outlier, it probably isn’t sustainable, and you are buying the quarterback at a peak price in fantasy football.

This is where we can easily identify top-end regression candidates such as Matthew Stafford. He’s coming off a bonkers passing TD season that featured a career-high 7.7% passing TD rate.

And there was a narrative behind this production, as the Rams were desperately trying to get their quarterback the MVP award. Given his age and unlikelihood, LA runs back the same red-zone plan – Stafford is a no-go for me across all formats. Especially considering he offers no rushing to boost his floor.

Player Team TD%
Malik Willis GNB 8.6
Matthew Stafford LAR 7.7 (career-high)
Lamar Jackson BAL 7
Brock Purdy SFO 7
Joe Burrow CIN 6.6
Drake Maye NWE 6.3
Jared Goff DET 5.9
Jalen Hurts PHI 5.5 (career-high)
Josh Allen BUF 5.4
Sam Darnold SEA 5.2
Trevor Lawrence JAX 5.2 (career-high)
Jordan Love GNB 5.2
Tua Tagovailoa MIA 5.2
Justin Herbert LAC 5.1
Joe Flacco CIN 5.1
Dak Prescott DAL 5
Daniel Jones IND 4.9
Caleb Williams CHI 4.8
Baker Mayfield TAM 4.8
Aaron Rodgers PIT 4.8
Bryce Young CAR 4.8 (career-high)
Jake Browning CIN 4.8
Jacoby Brissett ARI 4.7
League Average 4.7

The biggest mistake fantasy football gamers continue to make is overevaluating non-elite rushing QBs. If you aggressively draft a fantasy QB (draft them highly), there should be a case for their rushing upside.

Among the top-10 quarterbacks in total points scored last season, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight rushed for at least 240 yards. In 2024, 10 of the 13 highest-scoring fantasy football quarterbacks rushed for at least 300 yards while attempting 500+ passes.

In 2025, 10 of the top-14 scoring QBs rushed for at least 350 yards. 3 of the ones who didn’t attempt at least 575 pass attempts (all drafted outside the top-10 QBs in ADP).

Call it the 50-30 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 500+ times and/or rush for 300 yards? Those are your top targets.

QBs who hit both 300 rushing yards and 500 passes in 2025 included: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, and Patrick Mahomes. Maye was eight passes short of 500 (492).

Brock Purdy, Shedeur Sanders, and Tyler Shough would also come close to qualifying if they played a full season’s worth of games.

Hitting that 300-yard rushing total (17.6 yards per game) is a sweet spot for QBs. Adds just enough to their bottom line.

In Mike Clay’s 2026 projections, the following QBs hit that 50-30 threshold:

Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Malik Willis.

Purdy, Bryce Young, Tyler Shough, and Kyler Murray are also very close to the 50-30 threshold, FWIW.

That brings me to the last point.

Price sensitivity. Paying up to draft the QBs right after the elite tier does not work. Stay out of the middle. These middle-range QBs are more likely to finish closer to the guys behind them than in front of them.

The QB8-to-QB13 range bombed for a second straight season in 2023. In 2024, the QB5-QB14 range was filled with landmines (7 out of 10 QBs were busts).

In 2025, we had three elite QB busts (Jayden Daniels/Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow) with injuries taking a toll. And they are all being forgiven, as they are currently being drafted as top-5 options in the 2026 ADP despite carrying similar risk in 2026.

Burrow doesn’t add value as a rusher. Daniels had injury concerns coming out of college and has a severe lack of established weapons outside of Terry McLaurin (with a new OC as well). Jackson’s rushing rate fell from 18% to a career-low 9.9% in 2025 (TrueMedia). 27 rushing yards per game were also a career low. Considering QBs don’t tend to run as much as they age, very plausible that Jackson’s rushing will start to taper off in an effort to keep him healthy.

More of the middle-round QBs also weren’t great picks – Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray – even if they weren’t all total busts.

Bo Nix and Jared Goff finished where they were drafted, but hardly provided the massive ROI that several QBs going outside the top-12 did.

Herbert, Williams, Maye, Dart, Lawrence, and Stafford.

Late-round QB DOMINATED in 2025. Again, injuries played a part – but it’s a reminder that when you swing for the fences on an elite signal caller, it needs to hit (Josh Allen).

And that these late-round dual-threat QBs are just the best picks you can make in fantasy football (see anything I wrote about Drake Maye heading into 2025).

Further emphasizing that you should wait on QB in your 2026 fantasy football drafts. Just a plethora of late-round options outside the top-5.

The last thing I want to note is the change to the offensive coordinator/play-caller. Specifically, when it comes to QBs losing OCs or play callers with whom they had success in the past. The examples of QBs in 2026 that fall into that spectrum include Lamar Jackson (Todd Monken departed to become the Browns’ HC), Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix (Davis Webb taking over as play caller), Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold.

Darnold seems like the most logical fade in 2QB formats after losing his OC, Klint Kubiak. He also barely moved the needle in QB fantasy scoring last season. QB23 in PPG last season. Not a rushing threat. Better real-life than fantasy football QB. Seattle’s elite defense doesn’t marry well with fantasy football production.

Running Backs

A few points on projecting RB busts. Fading rushing inefficiency makes sense – as teams are less likely to continue giving volume to RBs who aren’t producing. But as with Kyren Williams last season, he improved his per-touch efficiency after ceding more work to Blake Corum.

The concern is if you have an inefficient running back that also plays in a less-than-ideal offensive environment, where TDs might be tougher to come by. If they aren’t able to create enough on their own, it leaves a lot to be desired.

And please, please, please. Avoid the volume-based RB2 archetypes by chasing that comforting “projected safe volume.” Volume bets in the RB2 range are typically what lead to busted picks at the position.

This was the foundation for finding RBs in the Dead Zone in the last few years. Looks great on paper post-draft. Not so great after a few weeks of lackluster production.

Also, you’ll find a theme with many of the RBs I am shying away from. They are going in the mid-to-back-end fantasy football RB2 range (RB16-RB24). Not going to lie – this range somewhat scares me. I’m lower than the consensus on Jeremiyah Love, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Quinshon Judkins. I see more reasons for concern than for excitement.

Meanwhile, at the back-end of this tier are guys that seem like such locks to offer at worst fantasy RB2 production – such as David Montgomery or D’Andre Swift. If you are really gung-ho on drafting a fantasy football RB, Swift seems like the guy you should just draft. Cheap and always a fantasy RB2.

Not all of these RBs are must-avoids. But rather, they bring red flags or other concerns that might suggest going elsewhere in your drafts.

I also mentioned this in my perfect draft piece. When you are “lower” on consensus on a starting RB, you should be higher on the No. 2 guy. You’ll find that theme in a lot of my RB fades. I love the guys behind them as sleepers in 2026.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in touches in 2025, with 413 (450 including the playoffs).

As I cited heading into the 2025 season regarding the case against drafting Saquon Barkley, chasing these RBs the year after they post monster touch totals is not a good bet. Barkley finished 2025 as the RB13.

In the last 13 years, only one of those RBs was a top-5 fantasy football RB the next year…after seeing 400-plus touches. One. Fade CMC in 2026.

Last 13 RBs with 400+ touches the previous season:

  • RB71
  • RB53
  • 2 DNPs
  • RB17
  • RB6
  • RB17
  • RB2
  • RB13 (Barkley)

The only RB to return to glory after seeing 400+ touches was 24-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson.

Only two RBs finished as fantasy football RB1s (top-12) the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.

The other 10 became busts. Injuries, regression, or volume drop-offs crushed them.

RBs aged 27+ who led the NFL in touches: 6 times and zero top-5 finishes the following year.

McCaffrey is officially 30 years old now. His rushing efficiency declined in 2025 (though he forced a ton of missed tackles).

  • He was PFF’s second-lowest-graded rusher in 2025 among 58 qualifiers.
  • Career-low yards per attempt (3.8).
  • 4th-lowest rush yards over expectation per attempt

Losing George Kittle‘s ability to be an effective blocker also could hurt CMC’s rushing potential.

CMC has led the NFL in touches twice. His fantasy football finishes AFTER those seasons?

Let’s say it was nowhere near No. 3 overall…(53rd and 72nd). Double woof. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…you know the rest.

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

I just want to preface the intro for Quinshon Judkins with some analysis from Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Per Heath:

“The four most recent players to return from fibula fractures — with Cam Skattebo‘s and Quinshon Judkins‘ outlooks in mind — averaged -6.7 fantasy football PPG fewer than they did the year prior upon returning.”

The process says you just blindly fade these RBs.

And given that the Browns open the year on the road against two of the best run defenses in the NFL – at Jacksonville and at Tampa Bay, I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Dylan Sampson straight-up out-scores Judkins through the first two weeks of the season as the Browns’ preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Sampson is a very capable RB in his own right. Todd Monken took Derrick MFN Henry off the field for Justice Hill in Baltimore, so yeah, I think Judkins is very much at risk of being regulated to early downs and TD dependency (in a bad offense, no less).

The Browns RB is facing a MAJOR uphill climb out of the gates behind an overhauled offensive line that might take some time to gel. It’s a brand-new starting five that has never played together – and we know that bad offensive lines don’t travel well. They will improve as the season progresses – but man, I want to fade this offense hard to start the year.

Judkins screams to me as a volume-driven fantasy football RB2. To me, that profiles as replaceable production that isn’t necessarily built to last.

He also wasn’t efficient at all last season.

Last year, Judkins ranked 38th in juke rate, 55th in yards per touch, 52nd in yards created per touch, 27th in breakaway runs, and second-to-last in rushing success rate (33%).

Now, a lot of this can be attributed to Judkins’ situation: 62.2% of his rushing yards came after first contact, and he had the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, with only Cam Skattebo, Ashton Jeanty, and Zach Charbonnet seeing less runway with the ball in their hands.

He was averaging nearly 19 touches per game and could barely scratch top-24 fantasy football RB production.

I just don’t see how the situation is so dramatically improved for an RB who is coming off a brutal season-ending injury to thrive. Give me Sampson 100 picks later.

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

Chuba Hubbard followed up an RB15 overall 2024 campaign with a massively disappointing season in 2025. He was the RB40 in fantasy points per game and lost his starting job to Rico Dowdle during the season.

Hubbard was horribly inefficient last year, ranking 40th in yards per touch, 49th in evaded tackles, 55th in juke rate, and 51st in fantasy points per opportunity. Zero explosive runs (15-plus yards) last season. I couldn’t find another RB with at least 140 carries in PFF’s dataset over the last 15 years who didn’t get at least one explosive rush. And the ones who had a few – almost exclusively veteran plodders.

Sixth-worst in rushing yards above expectation per attempt and rushing yards after contact per attempt.

Sixth-worst graded RB per PFF from Weeks 9-18.

Bottom-5 graded rushers per PFF (Weeks 9-18)

Hubbard also broke down in the latter part of the 2024 season. And in 2024, Jonathon Brooks and Miles Sanders both played alongside Hubbard before they got injured. Hubbard’s targets were nuked when Brooks was healthy in 2024. It’s a small sample, but Brooks immediately saw high-value touches when he hit the field (red-zone and receiving).

In his limited NFL playing time, Brooks commanded 3 targets and caught all of them for 23 yards, despite playing only 23 offensive snaps.

The team has since moved on from Uncle Rico – but the offseason hype for third-year RB Brooks has been in full force. The team has been very vocal about Brooks competing for the starting role – health permitting. We’ve already seen Hubbard lose his job once to a veteran, 27-year-old RB journeyman whom they signed for one year ($2.75M contract). The current Carolina Panthers regime drafted Brooks 46th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The team invested significant draft capital into him, so it makes sense that they want to see the 23-year-old in full force if he is healthy. He adds a pass-catching threat that’s missing from this running back room (not a strength of Hubbard).

If Brooks looks better and more explosive than Hubbard throughout the summer/start of the season, I think he starts sooner rather than later.

Keep in mind that Brooks only has 266 total college touches.

We’ve already seen Hubbard lose his job once, and I’m not willing to make that bet two years in a row when the team is heavily incentivized to see what they have in Brooks after spending a Round 2 pick on him.

Panthers HC Dave Canales already said Brooks will have a chance to compete for the starting job.

In drafts this season, I want no part of Hubbard – even if he does provide some value early on. When it’s all said and done, I think Brooks asserts himself as the RB1 in Carolina. He is on my short-list of player targets, whereas Hubbard remains a strong fade.

Chris Rodriguez (RB – JAC)

I understand the general interest in Chris Rodriguez. He can’t simply be brushed off, given his relationship with Jaguars HC Liam Coen from their time together at Kentucky. He loves Rodriguez’s toughness, tackle-breaking, consistency, and finishing ability to get you the yards that are there/blocked for. It’s apparent in a lot of the advanced rushing metrics for Rodriguez (albeit on a small sample size):

  • Eighth in yards after contact per attempt (2025)
  • Eighth in rushing success rate (2025)
  • First in expected points added (EPA)/rush since 2024, per Tej Seth.
  • First in yards after contact per attempt since 2024, per Jared Smola.

C-Rod signed for 2 years, $6.2M guaranteed this offseason, triple what Emanuel Wilson got with Seattle, to put the contract into some perspective.

But for me, that basically ends the pro-argument for Rodriguez.

I feel very strongly that Rodriguez is a total zero in the passing game (three catches last season; six total catches in his three-year NFL career). And the goal-line role? I still think that belongs to second-year RB Bhayshul Tuten, given he was taking Travis Etienne off the field in the red zone during his rookie campaign.

Tuten was also good in a lot of these same metrics as C-Rod

  • 12th in yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating (nearly identical to C-Rod).
  • 58% success rate – same as C-Rod (top-5 in the NFL).
  • But he is way more explosive. And he took Etienne off the field last season (objectively superior RB to C-Rod).

Rodriguez is a significantly worse back than Etienne. I don’t think that’s up for any debate, despite what the advanced metrics might suggest.

And I’m going to be honest. I don’t recall Rodriguez being very effective for the Commanders until the end of the season. His earlier game logs (when he started playing) are pretty eye-opening, especially in the second half:

  • Week 9 versus Seattle was garbage time.
  • Week 11? Miami Dolphins. At the time, a historically poor run defense.
  • Before the Commanders’ Week 12 bye, Rodriguez was a bottom-10-graded rusher, per PFF. That includes the game versus Miami.
  • He forced five missed tackles on 60 carries (second-fewest in the NFL).
  • Ranked dead last in elusive rating (tied with Aaron Jones).
  • The Eagles rested their starters in Week 18.

I talked ad nauseam about how great the Commanders’ rest-of-the-season schedule was for backs in my weekly fantasy football piece during the season. Rodriguez took advantage of defenses rolling over.

Keep in mind that Rodriguez’s career profile looks pretty similar to Gus Edwards. Very strong yards per carry and yards after contact numbers (although Edwards had a much larger sample size).

Rodriguez is a 26-year-old former sixth-round pick who split backfield touches with a rookie seventh-rounder and Jeremy McNichols last season. He wouldn’t have sniffed the field if Brian Robinson Jr. hadn’t been traded. Robinson is the definition of the “just a guy” running back archetype, and Rodriguez was his backup’s backup at the start of the offseason.

Rodriguez also hurt his shoulder and groin last year, which is potentially problematic given his physical style of play. He already missed OTAs after undergoing a foot procedure this offseason.

I think Coen’s love for Rodriguez will be present during the offseason coachspeak, and perhaps he does have an annoying role to open the year. But when push comes to shove, Rodriguez is the quintessential “dead-zone, plodder, empty calorie, early-down grinder” that coaches tend to move on from sooner rather than later. After all, it was reported later during the offseason that the Jaguars were interested in J.K. Dobbins foremost as an FA RB.

Bhayshul Tuten juice all day, every day. The next Chase Brown to Rodriguez’s Zack Moss.

BUYER BEWARE

Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)

Among all the teams that could have landed Jeremiyah Love in this year’s draft, of course, it had to be the Arizona Cardinals.

I think Arizona was the worst landing spot of the bunch.

First off, Tyler Allgeier isn’t just going to disappear. He is an effective power back and carved out a role alongside arguably the best RB in the NFL during his time in Atlanta. And where does he often see the majority of his touches? The red zone.

I’ve always been a strong believer in Allgeier, dating back to his days at BYU. He produced over 1,000 rushing yards as a fifth-round rookie and just fell victim to circumstances with the Falcons taking Bijan Robinson in 2023.

According to the Athletic, Allgeier is sixth in the NFL in rushing success rate (42 percent) and 11th in EPA per rush (0.01) among all running backs, according to TruMedia. He is also one of three running backs with more than 500 carries over the last four seasons who have not fumbled. He has zero career fumbles. In 2025, he made his biggest impact in the red zone with eight rushing TDs. At 221 pounds and just 737 total NFL touches on his resume, the 26-year-old RB still projects for decent volume in 2026.

Allgeier has been the epitome of health throughout his four-year NFL career.

Not good for Love.

Second, Arizona has QB problems. Jacoby Brissett is QB1. Gardner Minshew is the next man up. Ty Simpson is a Ram. Carson Beck is a Round 3 rookie QB whose time could come up sooner rather than later. The offense could struggle with arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL: Brissett and/or Minshew under center, unless they attempt 45-plus passes a game.

Third, the offensive line. They still have a major hole at right tackle. Elijah Wilkinson projects to start after departing Atlanta (who also needs an RT). Wilkinson was PFF’s third-lowest graded offensive tackle to log at least 1,000 snaps last season.

Now it’s not all bad.

Keep in mind that one of Breece Hall‘s best seasons came with new Cardinals OC Nathaniel Hackett as the Jets’ OC in 2023 (Hall was fantasy football’s RB2). But Hackett has hardly established himself as an advanced offensive mind after flaming out with the Broncos/Jets.

Still, I have to at least entertain the idea that a super-talented prospect like Love can rise above his situation.

As I noted in my “How to Value Rookie RBs in Fantasy Football: Pre-NFL Draft (2026)” article, RBs with this elite draft capital possess very high floors.

Seventy-eight percent of RBs drafted inside the top 12 finish as a top 12 fantasy football option in Year 1.

I don’t think Love is in for a colossal bust of a season. But 2026 probably won’t be the ceiling for Love. That, I feel, is certain unless he just posts bonkers receiving numbers.

Because I don’t love his TD upside. And when in doubt? Don’t draft Cardinals in 2026.

I just prefer so many other RBs in the range that Love goes (RB13 ADP). To me, Love feels like he is being drafted close to his fantasy ceiling as a back-end fantasy football RB1.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

So, Josh Jacobs‘ situation is obviously very fluid because of his off-field issues. Still very possible that he gets suspended by the NFL, or he faces zero discipline. I think this makes him a much more palatable pick in redraft formats at a discount compared to best ball, where it is so critical not to take zeros with your higher picks. If he misses some games, you can manage around that in a traditional league. But it’s much tougher in best ball, especially given that there are many other good RBs in Jacobs’ ADP range.

Until we get legal movement, I think a telltale sign for GB would be signing or trading for a veteran at some point.

Off-field antics aside, the Packers RB is hardly without some red flags in his profile.

From Weeks 1-10 in 2025: Jacobs was the RB5 in PPG (18.1) with 11 rushing TDs. Then he suffered a knee injury in Week 11. Once he returned in Week 13, he was clearly not himself. RB23 in PPG (10.5). 12 PPG (RB21) from Week 7 onward after hurting his calf.

Finished the season as RB11 in PPG (14.3).

The Packers RB fell just shy of 1,000 rushing yards despite 254 carries, taking a step back in his second season with Green Bay. If healthy, we know that Jacobs possesses a top-5 fantasy ceiling. But as the 28-year-old continues to pile up volume and small injuries, fantasy football managers should be wary of the production tapering off. Jacobs currently ranks sixth on the career touch list among active players (2,109).

I still think Jacobs should remain the focal point of the Packers’ rushing attack, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a healthy MarShawn Lloyd spell him more often. Lloyd has been devastated by injuries through his first two years in the pros (10 total offensive snaps), but he is seemingly as healthy as ever entering his third season. The Packers desperately need his explosiveness in this offense, because that’s just not something we should expect Jacobs to deliver consistently at this point in his career.

The team seems “bullish” on Lloyd, and the healthiest version of himself seems destined for a role in this 2026 offense. Recall that last year, Emanuel Wilson showed out at times… therefore, Jacobs’ reps may be pulled back in an effort to keep him upright. Keep in mind that he also hurt his calf in Week 7, and then we started to see his production fall off.

Last year, after Week 6, Jacobs surpassed 60% of the snaps in only two games.

Hence, Jacobs posted the highest weekly bust rate (20%) among RBs inside the top-15 finishers last season. Guys with the highest bust rates inside the top 15 in 2024? De’Von Achane, James Conner, and Chuba Hubbard.

Now, Jacobs has done this ping-pong most of his career, which is worth highlighting. In any year he has seen 300-plus touches, he has failed to hit that mark the following season (and, subsequently, his fantasy finishes follow a similar pattern). To me, he feels like a small-win-but-big-loss type of player if the wear and tear continues.

Also, the Packers OL ranks in the bottom-6 per consensus.

Jordan Morgan is a brand-new starting left tackle after starting at guard his first two years in the league. GB is banking on development, as most of their O-line is returning from last season (when they were admittedly not great and dealt with injuries). RT Zach Tom is the best guy in the starting five, but he is coming off a torn patellar tendon.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)

Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t going away anytime soon. Actually, the veteran RB averaged more PPG (11.6 vs 11.1) than TreyVeon Henderson did in 2025.

Stevenson returned to full-time action in Week 13 versus the Giants. Henderson missed the game against the Baltimore Ravens (just 19% of snaps).

In the other 4 games they played together, Stevenson out-snapped Henderson in 3 of them. In the last 8 games, Stevenson out-snapped Henderson in 7 of them.

Total opps in final 4 games during the regular season.

  • Henderson: 64 (58%).
  • Stevenson: 46 (42%).

Total opps in the final 8 games of the regular season/postseason.

  • 100 for Henderson (46%)
  • 116 for Stevenson (54%)

    In the 4 postseason games:

    Henderson – 35 touches (36 opps)

    • WC – 41%
    • DIV – 38%
    • CC -6%
    • SB – 39%

    Stevenson – 70 touches (73 opps)

    • WC – 62%
    • DIV – 62%
    • CC – 94%
    • SB – 63%

    Stevenson MORE than doubled the opportunities against Henderson in the playoffs.

    He was also the RB7 in PPG after Week 13 throughout the postseason, averaging 15.4 PPG in half-PPR (RB1 production).

    Now the usage wasn’t amazing – 10.4 XPPG (RB30) – but it remains to be seen how their roles will shift in 2026. Conventional wisdom (and ADP) suggests Henderson will take a step forward in Year 2, but Stevenson figures to be a thorn in his side for a decent chunk of the season. Stevenson had a massive turnaround in the second half of the season and was objectively better than Henderson across the board.

    The rookie RB was bested by Stevenson in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, and pass protection stats (the main driver in the stark snap counts).

    Stevenson was fifth in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He’s a good running back who won’t just be tossed aside (first in rushing yards over expectation per attempt in 2025).

    I’d expect we get closer to a pre-postseason split between these two RBs to start the year, where Henderson has closer to a 60-40 split – baking in a projection as a player entering his second season.

    Hendo was the RB18 in xPPG in his last four games, compared to Stevenson as the RB33 in xPPG.

    Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

    Bucky Irving had a sophomore season to forget. He was limited to 10 games due to injury (also still recovering from a shoulder injury) and ran wildly inefficiently. He posted the 4th-lowest rushing success rate and finished 3rd-worst in YPC (3.4). The second-year RB scored one rushing TD in 2025. Even with Rachaad White gone in free agency, Todd Bowles’ other favorite RB, Sean Tucker, might continue to rear his ugly head near the goal line in 2026. New OC Zac Robinson notoriously used Tyler Allgeier in the red zone with the Atlanta Falcons over Bijan Robinson.

    Kenneth Gainwell will also be vying for targets/opportunities after signing with TB this offseason. In multiple stops over the past several seasons, Gainwell has forced his way onto the field. The Bucs coaching staff is already talking about a hot-hand approach and a three-headed backfield, with Bucky as 1A and Gainwell as 1B. Irving has bust potential without a lock on the Bucs’ high-value backfield touches, and this has caused fear; his price has dropped from RB15 in the ECR earlier this offseason to the RB19-RB23 (current ECR and various 2026 ADP sources). Keep tabs on Irving’s 2026 stock, as there could be a buy-back opportunity given that the Buccaneers’ RB probably wasn’t the same guy returning from injury as in the first four weeks of the season; he was extremely productive, averaging 15.6 PPG. But after his return, he averaged just 10.2 PPG in a broken/injured Bucs offense.

    Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

    How much better do you think Kyren Williams is than Blake Corum (who posted a top-10 explosive run rate last season and finished third in yards per carry at 5.1)?

    We have acknowledged that the split between Corum and Williams was greater in 2025 (particularly in the second half), but, admittedly, it made Williams a more effective rusher that year. True to his word, Sean McVay was keeping Williams fresh for the long run by rotating Corum/Williams every other drive in the second half of last season.

    Therefore, I am very hung up on the Williams/Corum split for 2026. But I do have questions about Williams’s true ceiling with Corum entrenched as the No. 2.

    Does Kyren have more room to grow from outside the back-end fantasy football RB1 territory? He’s been RB10 over the last two seasons in an extremely fruitful role. The Rams RB has yet to crest the top-5 overall in either of the last three seasons (PPG he did in 2023).

    But his PPG in half-PPR formats dropped by almost 1.9 points from his 2024 finish compared to 2025. So even though he was more efficient, the presence of Corum did actually cause a decrease in his overall fantasy production (ever so slightly).

    Williams also scored his fewest rushing TDs (10) in 2025. And the Rams finished LAST in RB target share again (two straight years this has happened).

    Williams needs to gobble up the majority of the volume yet again while also scoring double-digit rushing TDs to pay off his ADP, despite a weak receiving projection.

    Keep in mind that Blake Corum also sees goal-line attempts in this backfield. Kyren only had 54% of the GL carries last year (20th among RBs).

    Although I was a “fader” of Williams last year and was wrong not to draft him, my main takeaway from that analysis was correct.

    Last year’s analysis:

    “I think that Williams could end up being a small-win player at his ADP of RB12. But I just don’t see the case where he completely buries you versus the flip side. If he does lose out on work to the other RBs and lacks the efficiency/upside in the passing game to make up the difference.”

    I feel the same way again this year, although the risk feels compounded by how well Corum also played last year compared to his rookie season. I just feel like, from a value perspective, I’d rather take Corum at a fraction of the cost and bet on the upside chance he can be a top-10 fantasy football RB if Williams misses any time.

    Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)

    I just don’t see any upside attached to Tony Pollard. The 29-year-old has accumulated nearly 300 touches per season over the last 3 years.

    He has over 1500 career touches – guys ahead of him on that list who have fallen off the face of the Earth by fantasy football RB standards: Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, etc. Over the last two years, despite all the volume, Pollard has zero top-20 finishes.

    He could easily be in a committee in 2026 with Tyjae Spears and rookie Nick Singleton under a new OC/HC combination that doesn’t have any allegiance to him. We already have coach quotes suggesting that both Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the bellcows of this football team. Spears out-targeted him last season as well (50 versus 39). New Titans OC Brian Daboll has admittedly used RBs in the past as bell cows, but he has also not been hesitant to throw rookie RBs into the fire (Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary), even as later rookie draft picks (the last two being Day 3 selections).

    Don’t forget that last season, Pollard was the RB39 through 13 weeks. Virtually unplayable.

    Last note: the Titans’ offensive line. A bottom-3 unit across consensus rankings. Doesn’t mean they cannot improve, but expecting the offensive line to create massive lanes for Pollard would be malpractice. Carmen Bricillo is the new offensive line coach, coming over from New York alongside Daboll. His last two Giants offenses ranked in the bottom 10 in PFF run blocking. The two new starters they added this offseason, Austin Schlottmann and Cordell Volson, are major weaknesses across the interior.

    De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

    De’Von Achane has to be one of the most polarizing early-round picks in fantasy football this season. He got a contract extension this offseason from the Dolphins after showcasing his top-5 fantasy RB upside the last two seasons in less-than-ideal conditions. He has averaged five catches per year over the last two seasons while showcasing the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

    However, without Tua Tagovailoa, his receiving numbers declined dramatically.

    Last two years with and without Tua (8 games)

    • 21.5 PPR pts versus 10.5 PPR pts/game
    • Targets? 6 versus 2.5

    Insert Malik Willis as QB1 in Miami, who will definitely rely on his legs a ton in 2026.

    And I’ve researched the impact of mobile QBs on RBs in the passing game. Typically, the receptions and yardage dip when QBs are scrambling and moving the chains.

    Last year, in Malik Willis‘ two starts, he went to RBs on just 12.2% of his attempts (six total). Same percentage in 2024 (12.5%).

    Achane is also an undersized RB, slightly under 190 pounds. So there’s some concern about whether he can carry the load should he see a season-high in carries.

    Mike Clay has him as his RB5 in the projections with a projected 16% target share.

    Knock it down to 13% target share (closer to Willis’ RB target rate the last two seasons) – and Achane just joins a long list of RBs (nine) with projections between 279 and 271 points before the next RB tier drop.

    The concern is that if Miami is run-heavy, Achane won’t see as many targets/touches as a receiver.

    And if this offense is bottom-5 overall, then you probably won’t regret passing on Achane if he doesn’t score a ton of TDs.

    Bobby Slowik is the new offensive coordinator (promoted from the Dolphins’ pass game coordinator job). They want to establish the run, which both the Packers’ and Dolphins’ offenses did at a top-six rate last season.

    However, something that was brought to my attention was how Achane was actually used as a receiver in this offense last season. Achane caught 19 of 26 targets from the slot in 2025. 32 of his targets were screen passes (first among all RBs per PFF). A lot of the designed looks likely had some influence from Slowik, as he was the team’s head coach last season. I’d presume some of those designed-scheme touches for Achane continue in this offense in 2026.

    Here’s a transcript from a Slowik presser earlier this offseason when asked about the topic (via MiamiDolphins.com).

    Running backs were used big time in the pass game last year. You were here. You know what Achane can do. Is there still going to be that heavy emphasis on that, because there’s a tendency with Malik to run instead of check down. You had a tendency in Houston to throw downfield and not utilize the running backs as much. So I’m kind of curious how you balance that?

    Bobby Slowik: I think it goes back to like the initial conversation we had way back when I first got introduced here. Everything I try to do is keep a defense off balance, so there absolutely is going to be part of that and then you’ll see some of it in walkthrough when we’re just trying to get a rep that won’t show up in practice and vice versa. But we want to do it all. Then we’re going to have these core things we want to hang our hat on, but there’s going to be times the back get out and we emphasize the back getting out. We’re going to use De’Von, we’re going to use Ollie, we’re going to use J. Wright (Jaylen Wright) to get out and they’re the primary read. There’s going to be other times they’re out as a checkdown. There’s going to be other times they’re out as window dressing and the other times they’re in in max pro. We’re going to mix it up pretty good.

    Are you emphasizing that to Malik Willis to use those running backs in the passing game even more than he has in the past?

    Bobby Slowik: Yeah, like everything, when it’s part of our progression, part of the play, part of where we want the ball to potentially go. He knows that’s a big part of what we’re doing.

    Before joining Miami, Slowik played for the Texans and 49ers. In 2023, Houston’s offense had the second-lowest RB target share (12.6%). But that number rose to 17.4% in 2024 (probably because Houston acquired a capable pass-catching back in Joe Mixon). That offense also dealt with several WR injuries.

    Across Miami’s offensive line, the guard position needed the most work this offseason. Cole Strange signed with the Chargers in free agency. Center Aaron Brewer and Austin Jackson will hit free agency in 2027. Brewer is an All-Pro center, so he really carries the interior of the OL. LT Patrick Paul is also solid.

    But Jackson is coming off an injury. And according to PFF, rookie guard Jonah Savaiinaea earned a 14.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, which ranked dead last among all guards. Jamaree Salyer signed a one-year deal to compete for the starting guard spot. Miami also drafted Alabama’s Kaydn Proctor in Round 1, intending to play him at guard to start his NFL career. It’s not a great offensive line by any means, which puts a lot on Willis’ mobility to help open rushing lanes for his big-play RB.

    I very much understand the downside/risks of Achane.

    But I wanted to take a deeper dive into the mobile QB’s impact on him in the receiving game before finally reaching my conclusion on whether he truly warrants a full fade, given his ADP of RB9 (15th overall).

    Here’s the main scoop after analyzing the impact of RBs in the passing game when paired with mobile QBs from 2019-2025.

    • QB scramble yards and total QB rush yards have the largest negative correlation to RBs in the passing game (close to -0.4).
    • The baseline tax. The regression says every 100 scramble yards (per 17) costs the RB1 about 4.7 targets. Tua’s scramble pace was 56-106 yards the last four seasons (his 2025 pace was bottom-five in the whole sample — Achane’s 85-target seasons were partly a checkdown-machine/screen-merchant subsidy).
    • A full season of Malik Willis profiles like the Justin Fields/Jayden Daniels/Lamar Jackson tier, call it 450-550 scramble yards. That delta projects roughly a -19 target hit — from Achane’s 85-87 baseline down to the mid-60s. Which, notably, is still top-8 RB receiving volume. That’s the honest pro-case framing: even paying the full mobility tax, the floor is elite.
    • 24% of top-quartile scramble QB seasons still produced a 55+ target RB1, and the beat-the-model cases share one trait — no target competition.
    • Think 2022’s version of Saquon Barkley as Achane’s bull case. Barkley was the RB6 in the year with Daniel Jones at QB. Jones was a top-4 QB rusher across the board (yards, attempts, scrambles, and scramble yards). It was Jones’ best season as a rusher. Barkley led the Giants in regular-season targets.

    This is the ideal scenario for those betting ON Achane at cost.

    Again, the single biggest model-beater in six years of data: an alpha back who was unambiguously the best offensive player on a team with a barren receiver room and a top scrambling QB, and he led the roster in targets anyway.

    Achane 2026 checks nearly every box in that profile.

    Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both gone; Malik Washington (317 career-high yards) tops the depth chart, and Slowik technically comes off the Shanahan tree, where they recently built much of their offense around CMC (129 targets last season). It’s not a coincidence that CMC’s targets skyrocketed when all the other 49ers WRs got hurt.

    Scheme designers who manufacture RB touches have historically overridden the scramble tax (see also: Andy Reid’s Chiefs going 57/57/71 RB1 targets across 2020-22 despite Mahomes scrambling plenty).

    As I wrote in the original article in 2019, if a running back is not in a timeshare, they can overcome the volume concerns that come with a mobile quarterback.

    In layman’s terms: In half-PPR, the QB scramble tax is only about 1 PPG, and 1.5 PPG in full PPR. The projected ~19-target hit works out to roughly -14 receptions? – 19 half-PPR points over a 17-game season. That’s it. One extra rushing TD per month, or +25 carries at Achane’s efficiency, erases it. The tax that looks scary in a target’s column is nearly a rounding error in your scoring format — while the compensating factors (carry volume, box counts, being the only red-zone skill threat besides Willis’s legs) are worth multiples of that.

    The entire scary “mobile QB kills RB targets” narrative, applied to the most extreme QB swap in the league, costs Achane about one point per game — and the market discounted him a full round for it.

    FWIW, Barkley’s 2022 ADP was RB11 (back of Round 2), very close to Achane’s 2026 ADP. He was drafted as a top-5 consensus RB the following season.

    Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

    The Colts RB is RB8 in the overall dynasty rankings entering his age-28 season (RB4 in redraft). He is ranked ahead of both Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall, both of whom signed new multi-year contracts this offseason at 25 years old. Meanwhile, JT is entering the last year of his deal, with question marks surrounding the Colts’ offense given QB Daniel Jones’s Achilles injury. Based on the injury, it’s more likely than not that he will fail to replicate last year’s top-end production. That could negatively impact the Colts’ run game in 2026. With Jones, he was the RB2 in fantasy points per game; without Jones, he fell to RB22.

    Taylor is currently 8th in career touches among active players (1,738), coming off leading the NFL in carries (323) with 369 total touches in 17 games (trailing only CMC in total touches in 2025). JT has played a full season just twice in his six-year NFL career and has struggled to stay healthy since his 2021 season, when he totaled 372 touches. Ultimately, I feel like the Colts’ offense will ride or die with JT, and it was encouraging last year to see his receiving numbers hit career highs. I’d expect him to see plenty of usage as a receiver if Jones is less mobile after his injury. Therefore, I’m generally good with JT’s No. 8 overall ranking and RB4 status – although I do prefer James Cook and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who can go after him in ADP sometimes.

    Wide Receivers

    A change at QB typically influences a WR’s potential bust rate for the following season. Last year, some of the biggest busts among WRs were Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. But just fading WRs with new QBs isn’t an exact science. Because we have examples of guys smashing with new QBs – Jaxon Smith-Njigba and George Pickens. If anything, it just widens the range of outcomes for that wide receiver – for better or for worse. It’s just an additional layer of risk that drafters have to consider.

    Even if it seems like a crystal-clear QB upgrade on paper, the bust probability increases. And when a WR is getting steamed for their improved situation as a selling point, it’s likely another indication that you should proceed with caution.

    An ADP trend that I have identified in finding WR bust candidates is projected breakouts. Specifically, the potential breakout players who are being drafted highly are often presumed to have already broken out (or to be a lock to meet lofty new expectations).

    I’ve hit on this topic in a previous “bust” article, and the hit rate has been pretty spot-on. Drafting the most expensive “breakout” WR tends to result in more shambles than in victory laps. Many of the WR busts are the projected breakouts and bounce-backs that didn’t fire. The backfires.

    Remember, hitting on breakout candidates is twofold. Obviously, the player “hitting” is step 1. But part of a player’s “breaking out” considers the price you paid to get them. Simply put, the higher a potential breakout candidate is drafted, the harder it becomes for them to exceed expectations and actually provide an advantage as a breakout. So when you look at the draft board and identify certain players as “breakouts,” note their price tag.

    Unfortunately, that guy has been Marvin Harrison Jr. for the last two seasons (drafted as WR16 in 2025 after a WR30 finish as a rookie). Xavier Worthy was the other bust here in 2025 as the WR21 in ADP (finished as WR33 as a rookie).

    Several second-year WRs are going in Rounds 3-4 who are popular breakout candidates (Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, etc.). But to me, Egbuka and T-Mac essentially already broke out last season, given their finishes as WR24 and WR16, respectively. Egbuka was the WR15 in xPPG.

    Meanwhile, Burden didn’t do much of anything in his rookie year until much later (finished the season as WR48 with four red-zone targets). So he definitely has not broken out yet. I don’t think that’s subjective or up for debate. If we take his 60-plus-target season and his super-efficient yards-per-route-run metric, here are some potential comparisons for him heading into Year 2.

    A lot of slot WRs. Tank Dell. Jayden Reed. Christian Watson. Gabe Davis. A lot of busts and guys who failed to meet expectations.

    Burden is technically the most expensive WR without a true breakout, followed by Watson (never finished higher than WR35). Watson also scored +2.1 PPG above expectation, which can sometimes be a telltale sign of impending regression. George Pickens finished 3rd in expected points scored above expectation (WR12 in xPPG).

    Rome Odunze is also getting a major boost with no finishes higher than WR40 (WR29 in ADP). He was the fantasy football WR12 in XPPG last year (massively underperformed in the second half of the season).

    I will say that the one player who knocked this trend was Drake London, entering his third season. He showed elite levels of target-earning ability through two seasons and finally got an upgraded QB in 2024. So even though he didn’t produce fantasy stats based on his situation, he showcased elite traits that suggested he was ready to take a massive leap if and when the Atlanta Falcons’ QB play ever improved.

    Also, have highlighted the value proposition of real-life WR2s on NFL offenses. Typically, it’s not a strong investment to chase the steam of last year’s real-life WR2 de jour at an inflated price tag. Expensive WR2s tend to be good fades, as I outlined in my perfect draft strategy piece for 2026.

    Rather, find the undervalued real-life WR2 options at a discount and reap the benefits.

    I should also note that oftentimes the biggest busts at WR one year can result in some of the biggest bounce-backs the following season (see Chris Olave in 2025).

    And sometimes, fantasy football managers cannot be so forgiving of a player coming off a poor season. Talented players find a way to produce even in bad spots. We don’t want excuses. We want results.

    Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)

    Malik Nabers‘ 2025 season was essentially lost to injury — he played just 4 games before tearing his ACL. In that small sample, he averaged 12.0 PPG (WR14 in PPG) on a 24% target share and 68 receiving yards/game. The question with Nabers isn’t about his talent on the field; it’s about his return from a complicated knee injury. He tore his ACL in September and underwent surgery a few weeks later. He then needed a second surgery to remove scar tissue. We’ve seen guys come back quickly from ‘clean’ ACL tears, but that doesn’t seem applicable here. Seems more likely than not that Nabers will be placed on the PUP list and may miss the first few weeks of the 2026 season. The offseason is when every team is optimistic, so any pessimism needs to be taken seriously.

    Now, this doesn’t mean Nabers is a MUST AVOID AT ALL COSTS, but his draft price needs to come down to consider his missed games and ramp-up period. Keep in mind that your fantasy football roster will be at its healthiest to start the year, so you should be able to find viable replacements until Nabers returns to full strength. But when that actually happens could be as late as 2027. Keep in mind that this will be a new Giants offense (potentially run-first) for Nabers under the uninspiring retread OC Matt Nagy. Doesn’t help Nabers either that he is missing valuable reps with his second-year QB, Jaxson Dart, whom he played one game last year (the game he also got hurt in).

    Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)

    Prepare for all the second-year breakout buzz for Luther Burden III from the Chicago Bears. Burden showed out massively in the second half of his rookie season, and that growth is expected to continue into Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson. The Bears’ wideout finished the season (combined regular and postseason) 7th in yards per route run (2.34) and a 2.83 YPRR according to Fantasy Points data, which ranked 3rd among all WRs. That was due in large part to Burden’s YAC – 4th in YAC/reception (7.2) and 10th in forced missed tackles. With DJ Moore jettisoned to Buffalo, Burden is a potential candidate to lead the Bears in all receiving categories in 2026.

    Chicago enters 2026 top 10 in both vacated air yards and targets (second in vacated WR targets and 5th in targets inside the 10), which is a meaningful opportunity signal — though Burden will need to expand his role considerably to fully capitalize (and meet his lofty ADP expectations) on the Bears’ open target pool. He played over 60% of snaps in only three games last season. He also never hit more than 68% of the routes run in any contest (think Josh Downs usage). But the head coach has been vocal about wanting to get Burden the ball as “often as possible.” Very possible that Johnson builds his passing game around his top two picks from the 2025 NFL Draft.

    Note that, unlike his teammate Rome Odunze, Burden is getting the layup targets in this passing attack. Burden finished first in catchable target rate per PlayerProfiler.com (90%). Perks of being a primary slot option in a Ben Johnson offensive scheme. But note these positives aren’t going unnoticed, as Burden’s price is hefty for Year 2 (back-end fantasy football WR2). Typically, we see this profile (the most expensive WR without a true season-long breakout) fail to meet expectations, as I alluded to in the introduction. Because there’s still a chance he falls to No. 3 in targets behind Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze.

    If the Bears run a lot of 13 personnel and tight-end-heavy sets, it is very possible that Burden is not on the field. I also think Burden might be fighting an uphill battle for TDs, with the Chicago RBs and Loveland/Odunze seeing larger opportunities in that area of the field. Burden can improve in his second season, but it’s hard to justify taking him over some more established WRs in his general draft range (Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, and Emeka Egbuka).

    I fully believe that the Bears’ passing offense is going to run through second-year tight end Colston Loveland, which makes Burden a very overpriced, unproven No.2 WR on his team. The Bears’ offense did so over the team’s last four games when Loveland commanded a whopping 28.5% target share (nearly 12 targets per game). As a rookie, Loveland finished the regular season top-5 among TEs in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (1.97). From Week 7 onward…the Bears TE ranked top-5 in targets, catches, and yards (26% target rate and TE4 in PPG at 11.1). Only Trey McBride had more receiving yards per game (61/game) than the Bears’ TE. The former Michigan product went NUCLEAR in the first round of the playoffs: Loveland recorded 8 receptions for 137 yards on 15 targets against the Packers, with the majority of his production coming when he created separation. Loveland generated 111 yards on 6 receptions (10 targets) when wide open (3+ yards of separation), while adding 94 yards on 4 receptions (6 targets) on vertical routes. The rookie tight end particularly excelled against zone coverage, hauling in all 8 of his receptions for 137 yards on 13 targets, per Next Gen Stats. Nobody wants to be drafted “out” on Burden, but I just can’t justify the acquisition cost. Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.

    Davante Adams (WR – LAR)

    The FantasyPros ECR is pricing Davante Adams as a low-end fantasy football WR2. But last year was actually a red-flag season disguised as an elite one; he posted a career-low catch rate of 53%, his YAC per reception hit a career low, and the bulk of his production was TD-dependent with 15 scores (three coming in a game without Puka Nacua). That kind of touchdown volume is notoriously hard to replicate year over year.

    Even though Matthew Stafford is back under center in LA, he may not force-feed Adams in the end zone as he did in 2025 en route to an MVP award (career-high 7.7% TD rate will almost certainly come down). It was comically obvious that was how the Rams wanted to approach the red zone. But in 2026, they might lean more on their running backs to ensure their QB is healthy for a Super Bowl. Let’s face it: the Rams QB is a major health risk at his age (38) with his history of back injuries. On top of that, Adams is no spring chicken (33) and dealt with a lower-body tissue injury in 2025 that sidelined him; at his age, that’s not something you just brush off.

    When you look at the totality of Adam’s optics, the age, the injury, the TD regression risk, the declining efficiency numbers- it’s easy to recognize that Adams is far more likely to fall off than to replicate what he did last year. Obviously, the pro argument is that he has an elite-level ceiling if Nacua misses time. But the fantasy football ROI has not always been kind to those paying the premium for the more expensive real-life WR2s in the draft room.

    Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

    Jameson Williams was terrible in the first half of last season. So much so that he was getting straight-up dropped in some shallower formats. From Weeks 1-7: Williams was outside the top 50 WRs in PPG. So, what changed for Jamo? It was two-fold: Lions HC Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, and tight end Sam LaPorta was placed on IR around the mid-way point of the season. Then Jamo was off to the races en route to a 1,000-yard campaign and back-end fantasy football WR1 status (WR10 overall and WR18 in PPG). But Campbell is not expected to call offensive plays in 2026 after the team hired former Cardinals OC Drew Petzing in the same position.

    Also, the team expects LaPorta to be fully healthy from his back injury. According to the FantasyPros splits tool, his targets per game fell by 2.5 with the Lions tight end in the lineup. His full PPR points dropped by more than 4 points. Williams’ yards/game plummeted from 80.4 to just 52.7. And it’s a decent sample of the final eight games LaPorta missed.

    And as much as Campbell loves to praise Williams, he has also been very vocal about last year’s WR selection: Isaac TeSlaa. If TeSlaa takes on a larger role, that could make Williams even more boom-or-bust. According to the FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Williams busted in 38% of his games last year. That tied for the highest mark among WRs to finish in the top 20. We know the upside Williams has, especially if targets open in the Lions’ offense. But expecting that, out of the gates under a new OC, might be more of a pipe dream. He had just a 17% target share last season (50th among qualifying WRs in 2025).

    Michael Wilson (WR -ARI)

    There might not be a player with more glaring on-off splits than Michael Wilson. In 2025, when Marvin Harrison Jr. was sidelined, Wilson was a fantasy football monster. He played in nearly seven games without MHJ and posted Puka-Nacua-level numbers at 19.5 PPG. After Week 10, Wilson was the WR4 in PPG (16.5) and ranked as the WR3 overall en route to his first 1,000-yard season.

    But a lot of this came from sheer volume, as no team was as pass-heavy as the Cardinals (No. 1 in the NFL in pass rate over expectation). After Arizona drafted a running back in the top 5 of the 2026 NFL Draft, conventional wisdom suggests they will have a more balanced approach on offense.

    Fantasy football managers also can’t overlook that Harrison is still a major part of this offense and that Wilson was a complete ghost when they played together in 2025. Harrison was gobbling up the targets – not Wilson. The 26-year-old was unplayable when Harrison was just in the lineup, boasting a target rate per route run of just 12%. In the games that MHJ missed? His target rate skyrocketed to 29%.

    Wilson seems drastically overrated based on bloated counting stats from last year. He could be the No. 3 target on his own real-life team, potentially led by rookie third-round QB Carson Beck at some point during the year.

    Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

    Sutton was quietly one of the more productive WRs of 2025, finishing WR11 overall but WR20 in PPG with 10.7 half-PPR PPG across a full 17-game slate. But he commanded a sub-20% target share (36th among WRs in 2025), finished bottom-15 in YAC/reception, and averaged 60 receiving yards/game with seven TDs and 19 red-zone targets (top-5).

    Denver heads into 2026 dead last in both vacated air yards and targets — literally zero open opportunities are projected — meaning the Broncos’ passing attack is fully stocked, and no structural volume expansion is expected around Sutton whatsoever.

    And that’s not even considering that the Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle with a future first-round pick this offseason. Sutton is falling into that fake alpha tier after being outproduced by Troy Franklin at times last season (despite the latter being very inefficient). Before the Week 12 bye, the soon-to-be 31-year-old WR was outside the top-30 WRs in PPG. His yards per route run have dropped for three consecutive seasons. He has 124-plus targets in back-to-back seasons but has not finished higher than WR11. Worth noting that Sutton has a potential out in his contract in 2027.

    DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)

    Metcalf finished WR26 overall and WR24 in PPG in his first year in Pittsburgh, averaging 10.5 half-PPR PPG across 15 games (suspended the last two games of the season). He earned a 21% target share and averaged 56.7 receiving yards/game with 6 TDs on 13 red-zone targets.

    In 2026, Metcalf will face additional competition from Michael Pittman Jr., second-round rookie Germie Bernard, and a flurry of Steelers tight ends. A brand-new coaching staff under HC Mike McCarthy will be implementing a new offense led by either a very old Aaron Rodgers, second-year QB Will Howard, or third-round rookie QB Drew Allar.

    And despite his alpha nature, Metcalf has been a tad overrated in fantasy football the last several seasons. He has been outside the top 15 in WRs for the last four seasons. Outside the last 20 in two straight seasons. Just WR33 in PPG during his final year in Seattle. As much as he looks and feels like a true No.1 WR, he’s always been a 1A. Whether it was in college with A.J. Brown or during his tenure in Seattle alongside Tyler Lockett, his size-speed profile hasn’t prevented others from being productive around him.

    The argument can be made that Metcalf isn’t even a lock to lead Pittsburgh in targets, as he did last season, should Pittman return to his underneath-target-hog status. Last year, Metcalf had just four games with over 55 yards. He also posted a career-low aDOT (11.4), which hindered his downfield usage at times throughout the season. If Metcalf couldn’t crest the top 20 with basically no competition for targets last year, I’d be concerned about his true upside in 2026.

    Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)

    Brian Thomas had a majorly disappointing injury-affected sophomore campaign, finishing as fantasy football WR43 overall and WR47 in PPG across 14 games. He averaged 8.2 half-PPR PPG on an 18% target share with 50.5 receiving yards/game, 3 total TDs, and just 7 red-zone targets. He came nowhere near the bar he set during his electric rookie season, and it seemed like he could never stack enough positive games together before having another setback.

    And as long as Trevor Lawrence remains the QB in Jacksonville, it’s hard to be overly optimistic about BTJ turning back to his rookie form. Note that Thomas averaged six catches, 9.5 targets, and 76.2 receiving yards per game with Mac Jones as his QB in 2024. In his other 21 games played with Lawrence, those numbers fall to 3.6 catches, 6.1 targets, and 58.4 receiving yards per game. T-Law just works better with TEs and other WRs such as Jakobi Meyers/Parker Washington. That was extremely evident last season in Liam Coen’s offense. And honestly, it’s not too shocking, given how Lawrence was at his best in previous seasons with Evan Engram and Christian Kirk.

    In five games with Washington and Meyers, Thomas averaged just five targets and three catches per game. He was actually 4th in the target pecking order behind the two WRs and TE Brenton Strange (14% target share, 4.4 targets per game).

    Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)

    Jerry Jeudy finished 8th-worst among WRs with at least 50 targets in 2025 in yards per route run. Finished second-to-last in fantasy points scored below expectation (-3.2 per game). It was a frustrating 2025 in Cleveland, with Jeudy finishing WR51 overall but WR70 in PPG despite an 18.6% target share. And it might not get better. The Browns hired a new HC and play caller this offseason and proceeded to draft two WRs with two of their top three draft picks inside the top 40. Second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is poised to continue on his ascension into Year 2. The organization can say whatever they want about Jeudy being their “bell cow,” but the writing is on the wall here that Jeudy’s nowhere near a lock to be this team’s No. 1 WR in 2026 or beyond. Friends don’t let friends draft Jerry Jeudy.

    BUYER BEWARE

    Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

    Godwin’s 2025 was limited to 9 games due to injury, leaving him as the WR79 overall. On a per-game basis, he ranked WR53, averaging 7.4 half-PPR PPG on a 16.5% target share with 40.0 receiving yards/game. Godwin has now finished outside the top-50 WRs in back-to-back seasons (18 missed games) due to injuries (most recently a fibula fracture that sidelined him for a significant portion of the middle of the year). The 30-year-old WR posted his worst yards per route of his career (1.36) in 2025, which begs the question of how much he has left in the tank.

    His deployment was favorable at times last year (running the most routes among Bucs WRs), but he had a very low target rate (20%) and target share (18%) on the season. And even when Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan were out of the lineup (5 games), Godwin averaged just 3.2 receptions for 39 yards/game. But given his large salary cap hit, the Buccaneers’ slot WR will be out there if he is healthy enough. The team is hoping Godwin finally pays off with another 1,000-yard season after they signed him to a big contract. At least he isn’t rehabbing an injury this offseason. And his Week 17 performance (7-108-1 on 8 targets) suggests he won’t be completely cooked.

    Parker Washington (WR – JAC)

    Parker Washington emerged as a legitimate contributor in 2025, finishing WR27 overall and WR38 in PPG with 9.0 half-PPR PPG across 16 games. He earned a 17% target share and averaged 53 receiving yards/game with 5 TDs and 12 red-zone targets. The fourth-year WR blew up the stretch for Jacksonville with over 87 receiving yards in his last four games. However, his eruption down the stretch coincided with the loss of WR/CB Travis Hunter midway through the year. 7 games with Hunter – just 6.4 PPG (Weeks 1-7). Nine games without Hunter: Weeks 9-18 – 14.2 PPG. He was also the team’s air yards leader over this stretch (32% air yards share), averaging 73 yards/game (2.8 yards per route run and 25% target rate) as the team’s primary slot option. The 24-year-old was smashing.

    But the question becomes…. will that carry over into 2026? With Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. both healthy, will Washington be limited to strict 3-WR sets from the slot? And does Hunter’s WR usage trim enough to hurt Washington’s bottom line? These are all legitimate concerns with Washington for 2026. He benefited a ton from the Jaguars’ WRs around him getting banged up. Now he deserves credit for delivering with the additional opportunity, but paying a top 40 WR price tag for a player that might end up being the No. 3 option on his own team feels rich. That being said, the upside case of Washington as Coen’s primary slot receiver is salivating. Washington owned the team’s highest target rate per route run last season (24%) and ranked first in yards per route run (2.22).

    Travis Hunter (WR – JAC)

    The early offseason reports from the Jaguars’ camp indicated that Travis Hunter would be deployed more at CB than at WR in 2026, given the team’s current needs at the position. Recalling that the 2025 Jaguars offense took OFF without Hunter in the second half of the season. Jacksonville’s coaching staff further clarified that they wanted to play Hunter more at CB – and not necessarily dial back his WR snaps. Obviously, Hunter is a unicorn as a two-way player, and this situation is extremely rare. Especially considering the Jaguars really do need Hunter more at CB than at WR, given the current depth at each position. But before his injury, he was still very much involved in the offense with schemed touches. He ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks (55th), commanded a 27% designed target rate (15th), and led the Jaguars in catches (second in routes run) primarily from the slot.

    If the Jaguars don’t commit to Parker Washington or Brian Thomas Jr. as focal points in the passing game, it’s plausible that Hunter retains a WR deployment similar to last season, making him an interesting bench stash given his upside. Or he mostly plays defense and doesn’t see nearly enough offensive action to be fantasy-relevant. He probably needs an injury to make a huge impact, which he did in his last game before his season-ending injury. Hunter caught eight of his 14 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown, all career highs, against the Rams. Hunter is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick because there is so much uncertainty about his role on a game-by-game basis. But those who lean and embrace uncertainty tend to be rewarded more often than not in fantasy football.

    Chris Olave (WR – NO)

    Olave was very productive in 2025, finishing WR6 overall and WR9 in PPG with 13.7 half-PPR PPG across 16 games. He commanded a 27% target share and averaged 73 receiving yards/game with a career-high 9 TDs (nearly matching his previous TD output from his first three NFL seasons). He smashed his 2025 ADP with an NFL-high 1840 air yards.

    A lot of Olave’s high-end production came in the second half of the season. Rashid Shaheed was traded, and rookie Tyler Shough took over as the starting QB. From Week 10 onward, Olave averaged 17 PPG in half-PPR. Note that his volume didn’t change too drastically after Shaheed was dealt – his efficiency just skyrocketed (averaged 86 yards/game and just under 10 targets/contest). His season was capped off by elite fantasy playoff production, as he scored the 2nd-most PPR points by any wide receiver during the playoffs (83.2), trailing only Puka Nacua (90.1) and finishing 15.1 points clear of Ja’Marr Chase in third. Olave’s 156 targets ranked 4th in the NFL, and he has now surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in all three of his full seasons.

    However, Olave’s 2025 season does look a little bit like an outlier, given he has been much closer to a top-24 finisher than a top-5 finisher throughout the first two healthy years of his NFL career. He’s not a YAC threat and has been more of a weekly floor than a ceiling play. Should also be noted that Olave did take full advantage when Devaughn Vele missed the final two games of the year. In the five games with Vele, Olave was under 16 PPG. The Saints’ No. 1 WR profiles more as a 1A than a true alpha, with the addition of 2026 top-10 WR draft pick Jordyn Tyson. Even in Kellen Moore’s fast-paced, up-tempo offense, Olave posted a career-low yards per route run (but the volume and TD totals more than made up for it). If Shough doesn’t take a step forward and instead stagnates, Olave may fail to match last year’s production (which was partially fueled by an outlier TD campaign rather than boosted efficiency). The Saints WR also has five documented concussions dating back to his days at Ohio State.

    Alec Pierce (WR – IND)

    Alec Pierce GOT paid this offseason, after finishing 2025 with career highs in catches (47) and yards (1,003). 28.5M/year – 11th-highest WR value contract (tied with Jaylen Waddle per year) – a little more than Jameson Williams. Fringe top-10 WR money. The Colts WR finished as the fantasy football WR24 overall and WR23 in PPG across 15 games (nearly identical to Jameson Williams). He had 10 games of at least 65 receiving yards (67 receiving yards/game). But this wasn’t the first time Pierce showed out. He was also solid in 2024 (827 yards on 37 receptions).

    The 26-year-old has led the Colts in receiving yards for two straight years (and the NFL in yards/reception). The Colts have made it clear that they want Pierce to be their de facto No. 1 guy in 2026. They traded away Michael Pittman Jr. to make way for their new WR1. Pittman and Pierce were pacing very closely in targets per game, and Pittman was racking up more receptions (4.7 per game). But Pierce was running circles around Pittman in the yardage department. On paper, it looks nice. But Pierce still has a very formidable target competition on the Colts in the form of second-year tight end Tyler Warren and underrated slot WR Josh Downs. And we can’t overlook Colts QB Daniel Jones, who is coming off a season-ending Achilles injury, which could inhibit Pierce’s production early in the 2026 season, especially as a downfield threat. His ceiling will be related to Jones’s health status. Although Pierce showed he could work with less-than-stellar signal-callers, recording two 22-point games over the last three weeks of the season without Jones. He had top-five weekly finishes with Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard.

    To add legitimate insult to injury, Pierce is expected to miss the majority of training camp after undergoing an ankle procedure shortly after signing his new deal in late March (a 4-6-month recovery timeline). Doesn’t give you a warm-and-fuzzy feeling. As Ben Gretch outlined Pierce’s situation on a projection show via Establish The Edge, what if the Colts are just paying Pierce to remain elite at what he already does? When it seems so natural that they have two guys who can operate underneath where Michael Pittman was targeted between Josh Downs and Tyler Warren? Note that last year, even with DJ under center, Pierce earned a 17% target share. There have also been rumors that the Colts are interested in Keenan Allen, which could suggest they don’t envision a major upheaval to Pierce’s route tree.

    Again, he is excellent downfield. He’s great at what the current meta of NFL defenses is trying to take away. And if he moves in more often, then which WR on the Colts is going deep in his place? Not to mention, after he got paid, teams will be throwing even more at him to take him away. I’ll admit that the price of Pierce at least reflects many of these concerns -> currently WR32 in ECR and WR37 in best ball ADP. I actually think he might be a great best-ball pick – given his ability to spike weeks. Especially should his production be more backweighted, given the injuries to both him and his quarterback. But in redraft, I’d much rather wait and see. Again, Pierce has been WR35 in average production over the last two seasons. And that’s considering his role doesn’t change at all. Appears to me he is being drafted much closer to his floor (injuries notwithstanding).

    Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)

    Rome Odunze might end up as the third-best receiving option on the Chicago Bears in 2026. After all, the first two draft picks Bears HC Ben Johnson made after securing the job were offensive pass-catchers: TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden. The former top 10 selection battled through injuries in 2025, and his production absolutely nose-dived in the second half. He played in 12 games overall, dealing with late-season foot limitations. From Weeks 1-8: 9th in PPG among WRs (13.3), scoring five of his six TDs during the early portion of the year. After Week 8, the Bears’ WR was averaging under 50 receiving yards/game. Just six PPG with the second-most points scored UNDER expectation. And his final catch rate on the year was abysmal – 48.5%. Identical to Jerry Jeudy and bottom-5 in the NFL.

    But it’s worth mentioning that even when DJ Moore was on this team, Odunze was still averaging 7.5 targets per game (37th) as the WR27 in PPG – the majority of which came in the form of high-value opportunities. He led all Bears WRs in overall targets and red-zone targets and finished top 15 in air yards share (top 10 in deep targets). Injuries aside, it wasn’t a lack of opportunities that caused Odunze to disappoint down the stretch. It’s very possible he could run hot with TDs and experience positive regression in an up-and-coming offense led by third-year QB Caleb Williams. Moore’s team-leading 8 receiving TDs are gone. The Bears, overall, are seventh in vacated air yards and target share (second in vacated WR targets and 5th in targets inside the 10). Even with Loveland and Burden set for second-year breakouts, it seems likely Odunze won’t be left too far behind as the third pass-catcher – even if he was not hand-picked by the Bears’ HC.

    That’s more than reflected in his price because the top-end ceiling might not be there for Odunze attached to Williams. Their connection hasn’t been good for two years. Odunze had a brutal uncatchable rate as a rookie (61%), and that trend continued in 2025 (59% per PFF) even under a new coaching staff. Part of that is the way Odunze is targeted – downfield. His average depth of target has surpassed 14 yards over the last two years. If this usage continues, this could make Odunze extremely boom-or-bust and potentially more of a sacrificial X WR than a true alpha. Still, any growth by Williams will benefit Odunze, who has been a positive regression candidate for the last two years. Eventually, the chickens come home to roost. FWIW, Mike Clay’s 2026 fantasy football season-long projections have Odunze five spots AHEAD of Burden (separated by just a few points). Odunze is the cheapest of the Bears’ top three pass-catchers, but he is also the most expensive projected No. 3 pass-catcher on his team’s NFL offense.

    Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)

    Quentin Johnston‘s 2025 was cut short at 14 games, but he showed real growth. The Chargers WR finished as the WR30 overall and WR25 in PPG, averaging 10.5 half-PPR PPG on a 17% target share with 52.5 receiving yards/game and 14 red-zone targets. But man, his season was a roller coaster ride. He had a red-hot start that fizzled out dramatically as the season progressed. QJ’s production came crashing back to Earth when Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden took on a larger role in the offense starting in Week 3. He was WR49 in expected points per game and WR76 in yards per route run (1.37) on a lowly 16% target rate per route run.

    Even so, Johnston projects to have a full-time role in an exciting Chargers offense in 2026. And although his up-and-down play can be beyond frustrating, he has big weekly upside, presuming he can hold off second-year Bolts WR Tre’ Harris. However, you still need to acknowledge that, three years into Johnston’s NFL career, he has not put together an official top-30 season despite scoring 8 TDs in back-to-back seasons. His ADP has also surged inside the top-40 WRs after strong coachspeak this offseason, which also warrants some concern for a player as inconsistent as QJ. The fact that Johnston overperformed by so much despite not posting strong efficiency numbers is a red flag that regression could crash down on him hard in 2026. Half of his TDs have come on plays on 20-plus air yard throws – further cementing his boom-or-bust profile.

    Tight Ends

    Long story short: It’s not hard to find tight ends who bust in fantasy football. Most of them do, especially in the middle range of the position.

    And that’s why going late-round tight end remains a viable strategy, especially in redraft formats. You avoid all costs associated with high-priced tight ends and avoid the bust potential altogether. You might miss the early-drafted tight ends that do hit (a small number, no doubt), but your roster is taking on much less risk.

    Drafting an elite tight end is a boom-or-bust strategy (also comes with a high injury risk). As I wrote last season, among the elite tier of Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Trey McBride, chances are one will bust (injury or not).

    For every early-round tight end who hits, there’s a late-round tight end who dramatically surpasses their average draft position (ADP) every year. And while you wait for the production that never comes from some early-round tight ends, you miss out on the players breaking out on the waiver wire. The “sunk cost” fallacy.

    Stay out of the middle at tight end as much as you can, unless you think the player can make the jump into the elite tier. If you’re hoping a tight end can just “hold on” to reach their draft cost, you are approaching the position the wrong way.

    Focus your strategy on finding tight ends later to avoid this unfortunate outcome, and build a potential super team in the early rounds spearheaded by top-tier running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks.

    And really focus on tight ends who can either be the No. 1 or No. 2 receiver on their offense, and fade the expensive ones who could fall to No. 3 in their team’s target pecking order.

    Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

    Last year felt like the perfect storm for Trey McBride. Doesn’t feel sustainable.

    The Cardinals threw at the highest rate in the NFL last season. McBride ran a historic number of routes. Coming off 11 TDs (a very much outlier number given McBride’s body of work).

    That’s not likely to repeat after the team drafted a running back, Jeremiyah Love, No. 3 overall. The Cardinals are also looking to get Marvin Harrison Jr. more involved after two disappointing seasons. Michael Wilson posted his first 1,000-yard season in 2025.

    With a new OC/HC combination coming in for the Cardinals, I expect a more balanced run-pass attack. And more competition that could hinder McBride’s production.

    In the five games with Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride’s yardage dropped from 90 yards per game to 65.7 yards per game.

    Now he was still averaging 14 PPG in half-PPR (still TE1) in those contests. But that number was up to nearly 17 PPG when one missed time.

    At his Round 2 cost, there seem to be so many better TE targets to make than McBride. You have to pass on some very strong RB/WR profiles to take McBride that early, and that concerns me if/when we see rookie Carson Beck under center for this Arizona Cardinals offense.

    When in doubt, fade the Arizona Cardinals in 2026.

    Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

    Is this upside really there for Kyle Pitts? The end-of-season performance would strongly suggest so…but his 2026 body of work didn’t necessarily suggest a super-high weekly ceiling. He finished as a top-3 weekly TE twice last season. Only four times did he finish a week as a top-6 fantasy football tight end.

    Per ESPN’s receiver score, Pitts also finished 2025 with the fourth-worst YAC. Despite a career-low average depth of target.

    The Falcons’ tight end had a late-season surge due to Drake London missing time. The splits are GLARING.

    In a 29-game sample with London over the last 2 seasons, Pitts has averaged just 8.5 PPR points per game. That per-game number would have ranked outside the top-20 TEs last season. Pitts was also better with Kirk Cousins than he was with Michael Penix (10.5 PPR/game vs 8.3 PPR/game, averaging under 40 receiving yards per contest).

    TE6 is way too rich for my blood, given the potential for shoddy QB play in Atlanta with Tua Tagovailoa and/or Penix (coming off another season-ending knee injury). Even with Kevin Stefanski bringing a tight end-friendly scheme to the Falcons, Pitts is still the clear No. 2 behind London.

    Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

    Travis Kelce finished as the TE3 in fantasy football scoring last season (TE7 in PPG), but his 76 receptions were his lowest since 2015. Kelce totaled 851 receiving yards, marking his third straight season with fewer than 1,000 yards. He’s also finished with five or fewer TD catches in each of the last three years. Kelce also averaged 1.47 yards per route run last year – the lowest mark of his 13-year career. The soon-to-be 37-year-old tight end is approaching his age cliff, and that very much concerns me for his fantasy football value. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is coming off a major knee injury, and the Chiefs are expected to have WR1 Rashee Rice (tentatively) available for the full 2026 season. Rice has been Mahomes’ go-to guy in the red zone, further limiting Kelce’s scoring appeal.

    In the last 11 games with Rice, Kelce has averaged 6 targets per game. 3 TDs. He’s been closer to 8 targets per game without Rice in the lineup. And when Kelce had the green light to smash to open last season (Xavier Worthy injured, Rice suspended), he was still just TE9 through six games (9.7 PPG).

    Although Kelce’s mid-range TE ranking seems appealing given his top-3 finish last season, he is much more likely to continue declining with more competition for targets. We always harp on staying out of the middle at tight end for fear that these players finish closer to the ones going after them than to the ones going ahead of them.

    And a lot of Kelce’s big-yardage games last season came on broken, unsustainable big plays. Wrote about it all last year in Beyond The Waiver Wire every single week when I listed the Chiefs TE as a consistent sell.

    He totaled 463 yards after the catch in 2025 (3rd-most among tight ends), including +32.5 YAC over expected. Kelce also gained more YAC than expected on 44.6% of his receptions this season, the 5th-highest rate among tight ends with at least 40 receptions. Why might that not be sticky? Well, it comes after a 2024 season in which he recorded his fewest YAC per reception since at least 2016 (Next Gen Stats).

    Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

    Jake Ferguson averaged just 7.3 PPG when George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were both healthy (> 50% snap share) in the lineup during the 2025 season (11 games). Five games without Lamb playing at least 50% of the snaps -> 13.5 PPG. Still, the overall production and career-high 8 TDs resulted in TE13 finishing in half-PPR scoring (per game). Top-5 in cumulative scoring in full PPR formats. With George Pickens returning to Dallas….Ferguson is facing a major uphill battle to rise above TD-or-bust TE territory. He’s being overvalued as a fringe TE1 because of his teammates’ missed games in 2025.

    Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

    Mark Andrews was a flat-out bust in 75% of his games played last season. He finished as a weekly fantasy football TE1 (top-12) in under 20% of his games (3 of 17). He was the TE16 last season (TE23 in PPG), and he’s not getting any younger. I’m very concerned that he might just be closer to being cooked. Posted a career low in yards (422). His yards per route run TANKED at 1.22. His YAC tanked. Dead last in YAC/reception among 49 qualifying tight ends. Zach “never forced a missed tackle in his life” Ertz had more YAC than Andrews did last season. And Andrews was bad with and without Lamar Jackson last season. There’s a path for volume in the Ravens’ offense, which is why Andrews is being ranked/drafted as a top-15 consensus tight end. But I’m afraid his decline will continue after he has failed to command the same type of volume over the last two seasons.

    Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)

    Juwan Johnson finished 5th in catches (77) and third in yards (889) among TEs in 2025, but he only scored three TDs (TE15 in PPG). It wasn’t always pretty (tied for league-high 7 drops per PFF), but the WR-TE convert made the most of his sheer volume. The Saints already paid him a decent chunk of change, and there’s currently little competition in the receiver room outside of Chris Olave and former 7th-round pick Devaughn Vele. Johnson was the TE9 in PPG after the team traded Rashid Shaheed (9.1) before the deadline (with Tyler Shough making all but one of those starts). With Shough from Week 10 onward, Johnson averaged over 61 receiving yards per game. However, they did also add Noah Fant in free agency, and they drafted WR Jordyn Tyson and TE Oscar Delp in the first two rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft.

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