The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 48.5
Line: DAL by 3.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: It hasn’t been the greatest of starts to the season for the Eagles in any facet of the game, including Wentz, who’s now completed just 61.2 percent of his passes at just 6.8 yards per attempt. Those marks are down significantly from the 64.7 percent completion-rate and 7.6 yards per attempt he averaged the last two years. Will he get DeSean Jackson back this week? That would certainly help, though he’s not a lock to play. The Cowboys were just dissected by Sam Darnold when he threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns on just 32 pass attempts. The Cowboys have had a very soft schedule of quarterbacks to start the year, facing Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, Aaron Rodgers, and Darnold. So, when you see they rank seventh-best against quarterbacks, you understand why. In two games against a similar Cowboys team in 2018, Wentz completed 54-of-76 passes for 588 yards and five touchdowns in the two games combined. He finished as the QB12 in Dallas, while finishing as the QB10 while in Philadelphia. This game should present a high-floor for Wentz and he should be put in lineups safely as a mid-to-back-end QB1.

Dak Prescott: After a massive start to the season where this offense showed all sorts of potential, they’ve slowed down quite a bit over the last three weeks, as Prescott has failed to throw a touchdown in two of them. Part of the issue was losing his stud wide receiver Amari Cooper last week, who may not be available in this contest. Here are the splits when Cooper has been in the lineup vs. when he hasn’t since the start of last year.

As you can see, he hasn’t been great without Cooper in the lineup, so if you’re trusting Prescott, hope that Cooper suits up. The Eagles can be beat relentlessly through the air, as the Vikings run-heavy offense showed last week when Kirk Cousins threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns on just 29 attempts. If you remove the Luke Falk game from existence (we really should), the Eagles have allowed 131-of-201 passing for 1,656 yards and 13 touchdowns through five games. That’s a 65.2 percent completion-rate with 8.24 yards per attempt, while allowing 331.2 yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game. Prescott should be able to deliver low-end QB1 numbers in this matchup regardless, but he could be top-six if Cooper is in the lineup.

RBs
Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard: If you’re a Sanders owner, it’s not a great thing right now. Here are Howard’s snap counts over the first six games: 17-18-24-33-29-40. That’s a clear trend in the right position for him, while Sanders’ snap counts have been trending in the wrong direction (36-34-25-22-28-19). The worst part is that the gamescript should’ve favored Sanders last week, but the 40-19 snap count is ridiculous. Fortunately, Sanders is the trusted passing-down option who will get more work in the passing-game. Outside of the Aaron Jones 107-yard, four-touchdown explosion in Week 5, the Cowboys have done a fine job against the run. The only other team of running backs who finished with more than 93 yards was the Giants, and that’s because Saquon Barkley broke a 59-yard run to get him there (had 61 yards the rest of the game). In the end, it requires a commitment for running backs to produce against the Cowboys run defense, something that’s hard to say about either of these backs. Howard is clearly the No. 1 back right now, but knowing he’s seen zero targets over the last two games is crushing to his floor if the game goes south, which means he’s a low-end RB3 with a lower floor than most starters. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points through the air to running backs, and that’s with no receiving touchdowns, as they’ve allowed 6.8 receptions and 50.3 yards per game. We watched Sanders used down the field in the passing game last week, as his 40 air yards ranked fourth among running backs last week. Knowing the Cowboys haven’t allowed a ton on the ground, Sanders should be viewed as a high-end RB4 who might have more upside than Howard, though he’s gamescript-dependent.

Ezekiel Elliott: It’s odd to see Elliott as the RB8 through six weeks despite the fact that he’s healthy. Did the time away from the team this preseason hurt that much, or does the new scheme not fit his skill-set as well? It surely doesn’t help that he was without his starting right and left tackle last week, though he did post his best fantasy game of the year. The best part about the last three games is that he’s been used in the passing game again, seeing 16 targets over that span. The Eagles are not a team you run the ball against with any consistency, as they’ve yet to allow more than 63 yards to a running back on the ground this year and that’s despite playing against Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones, Le’Veon Bell, and Dalvin Cook. In fact, none of those running backs topped 44 yards on the ground (Alexander Mattison is the one who totaled 63 yards). The Eagles just did release starting linebacker Zach Brown this week, though, so that definitely won’t help a team who doesn’t have much depth at the position. This compounds the injury to linebacker Nigel Bradham, who left with an ankle injury during their Week 6 game. The Eagles were good against the run for a majority of 2018, but Elliott did very well against them, totaling 187 yards and two touchdowns in one game, and then 192 total yards with no touchdowns in the other. Even going back to their matchup in 2017, Elliott finished with 141 total yards with no touchdowns. It’s obvious Pederson hasn’t put an emphasis on stopping Elliott, so feel free to start him as a high-end RB1.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: The Eagles changed up the way they used Jeffery in Week 6, using him in a role that was much closer to the line of scrimmage. On the year, he’s averaged a very-low 7.4-yard average depth of target, but it was dropped to just 5.0 yards in Week 6 against the Vikings where he caught 10-of-12 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. His owners will not complain about manufactured touches. The Cowboys will allow plenty of that underneath production to him in their zone-heavy scheme if the Eagles go that route again. Jeffery tallied 6/50/1 and 4/48/0 against them last year, so it’s clear they did a solid job keeping the play in front of them. He’ll see a lot of Chidobe Awuzie and Byron Jones in coverage, a duo that’s allowed 34-of-56 passing for 520 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage this year. The Cowboys have allowed four wide receivers to reach 15-plus PPR points against them this year, and it’s important to know that all of them saw at least eight targets, a number Jeffery has hit in each of the last three games. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 this week.

DeSean Jackson: We don’t know if he’ll be able to go in this game, but it’s not looking great after he didn’t participate in the early-week practices. With the game being Sunday night, it’s difficult to rely on him unless you have someone to fill his spot on your bench. If he practices on Thursday or Friday, I’ll come back and update, but for now, let’s assume you’ll be without him. *Update* He’s been ruled out.

Nelson Agholor: You’re better off trying to guess what the weather’s going to be like than guessing what Agholor’s target share will be. Through six games, it’s been 13-23-33-4-10-17. That’s a 29 percent range of outcomes. With DeSean Jackson out, you must at least consider what the possibilities are, but the Cowboys best cornerback (Anthony Brown) covers the slot. He’s allowed just 12 catches for 136 scoreless yards in his coverage this year, which is over a span of 20 targets in coverage. He was one of the better slot cornerbacks in football last year, too. Agholor was Jekyll and Hyde against them last year, posting 5/83/0 on seven targets one game, then just 2/49/0 on three targets in the other. He’s too inconsistent to trust in fantasy football right now and the matchup isn’t appealing enough where he’s attractive.

Amari Cooper: We don’t know if Cooper will be able to suit up for this game considering he had to leave early in the Jets contest, and they’re being non-committal about his availability. They’re describing it as a quad bruise, the injury that kept Todd Gurley out for the Rams last week. If Cooper does play, he’s obviously going to be in lineups as a smash WR1 against the Eagles. They’ve already allowed six 20-point performances to wide receviers, the most in the NFL. They’re playing backups all over the field and it has shown. The Vikings just got Stefon Diggs going last week with a 7/167/3 performance, and a few weeks ago, it was Davante Adams going for 10/180/0 before leaving with turf toe. This all comes down to whether Cooper plays or not, that’s it. If you have him on your roster and don’t want to miss out on him if he plays, here’s the order of waiver wire pickups who are available in most leagues to snag (in order to have a replacement): Phillip Dorsett (provided he’s good to go), Jakobi Meyers, Tavon Austin (if Cobb is held out again), Demaryius Thomas, and Nelson Agholor. *Update* Cooper appears to be on track to play after practicing on Friday. 

Michael Gallup: No matter what happens with Cooper, Gallup is going to be a phenomenal play this week. In the games they’ve played, Gallup actually has a higher target share and air yards, though the Week 6 game where Cooper left does skew that a bit. Still, it highlights the opportunity Gallup has in a prime matchup with a team that’s already allowed six wide receivers to top 100 yards against them. They’ve allowed an average of 46.6 PPR points per game to wide receivers, so there’s plenty of room for multiple top-20 performances out of this wide receiver corps. Knowing that Cooper may not even be 100 percent if he does play, you have to like Gallup as a WR2 in this game with WR1 upside. Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones were the starting cornerbacks last week, though that’s pending a change with the way they’ve played, as they’ve combined to allowed 468 yards and five touchdowns on 57 targets in their combined coverage.

Randall Cobb: He didn’t play last week as he dealt with a hip injury, making him no sure thing for this contest with the Eagles. His replacement was Tavon Austin, who ran 26 routes from the slot. Of the seven biggest performances the Eagles have allowed to receivers, none of them have come from slot-heavy receivers. The biggest performance to one was Geronimo Allison, who caught three passes for 52 yards and a touchdown. No primary slot receiver has caught more than four passes, which would make him a touchdown-or-bust type option, which isn’t great when playing someone who’s 5-foot-10 and scored just three touchdowns over his last 14 games. In all honesty, it might be better if he sits, as at least Austin offers big-play potential. *Update* Cobb returned to practice on Friday and is considered questionable. 

TEs
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: It’s pretty crazy to see Ertz not putting up elite numbers with the targets he’s getting, as his 54 targets are the most among tight ends. He’s seen at least seven targets in every game, so you have to assume the numbers will come soon. One issue is Goedert’s involvement in the offense, as he’s played at least 69 percent of the snaps in each of the last three games and seen 14 targets in those games. That ranks as the 13th-most targets among tight ends over the last three weeks. The Cowboys struggled to defend Ertz last year when he tagged them for 14 catches, 145 yards, and two touchdowns in their Week 10 meeting, though he came back down to earth a bit in Week 14 when he tallied just five catches for 38 yards. The Cowboys have been known to give up explosions from time-to-time, just ask Evan Engram owners who got 11/116/1 out of him in Week 1. Ertz needs to remain in lineups and is likely a buy-low target in fantasy leagues. Goedert can be used in a pinch as a high-end TE2, as he did see eight targets last week. The Eagles don’t seem to be happy with the backup receivers, so they’re involving their young tight end.

Jason Witten: With Amari Cooper forced to miss essentially the whole game last week, Witten didn’t see four targets! For those unaware, Witten had seen exactly four targets in each of the first five games. That was upped to seven last week, and he recorded his third 50-plus yard performance in the last four weeks. He hasn’t scored since back in Week 2, but Witten is currently the TE10 in PPR formats and has offered a very stable floor. The Eagles have been one of the better teams at defending tight ends under Doug Pederson/Jim Schwartz, though we’ve seen some solid fantasy performances against them this year. Both Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis were able to post top-six fantasy games against them, while Austin Hooper and Kyle Rudolph were able to finish as top-20 options. When you know the Eagles have allowed 320-plus passing yards in 4-of-6 games, you want to find where the yardage will go. Knowing Witten has a four-target floor with a higher ceiling if Cooper is out, he should be treated as a safe low-end TE/high-end TE2.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Total: 42.5
Line: NE by 9.5

QBs
Tom Brady: He may not have thrown the three touchdowns we thought he would, but he did throw for over 300 yards and rushed for two touchdowns, which is the exact amount of points he would’ve received from three passing touchdowns, anyway. The tally between the Patriots and their opponents now sits at 190-48. Despite that insane gap in points, they’ve averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game. Brady doesn’t have to be massively efficient in order to hit value with that many attempts. The Jets played well against the Cowboys last week, though without Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott hasn’t looked the same. On the whole, the Jets defense hasn’t been the problem for their team. They’ve allowed just a 2.69 percent touchdown-rate, 63.4 percent completion-rate, and 7.34 yards per attempt through five games. Brady was included in that sample back in Week 3 when he threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns while finishing as the QB12. That game was in New England, while this one will be in New York, and on primetime. Brady has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last seven games against the Jets. Yes, it’s a new scheme, but a lot of the personnel remains. The Jets have been able to sack the quarterback just 3.6 percent of the time, which is the third-lowest rate right behind the Falcons and Dolphins. It’s the second divisional game of the year, so we shouldn’t expect massive results, but a mid-to-low-end QB1 performance? Yeah.

Sam Darnold: After playing well in Week 6 against the Cowboys, many will wonder if Darnold is an option against the Patriots, so let me be clear… No, you shouldn’t. The only quarterback who threw for more than 161 yards against the Patriots was Ben Roethlisberger back in Week 1 when he chucked the ball 47 times. One of the craziest stats you’ll find in matchups through six weeks is that no quarterback has averaged more than 5.87 yards per attempt against the Patriots. The NFL average is 7.39 yards per attempt. They’ve allowed one passing touchdown through six games. I mean, there’s going to be a breakthrough game in there somewhere, but you don’t want to project the Jets as the team to do that. He played against the Patriots in Week 17 last year and threw for just 167 yards with no touchdowns. Darnold is not an option as a streamer and is just a borderline starter in 2QB formats.

RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: Through six full games, Tom Brady has as many carries inside the five-yard line as Michel. I wish I were kidding. While watching the Week 6 game against the Giants, Brandon Bolden looked like the better running back. I was a fan of Michel coming out of college, but for the most part, he’s looked bad this year. He’s only getting what’s blocked and not much more. It shows in his broken tackle stats, as he’s broken just 10 tackles all year, or 18.8 percent, which ranks 44th of 45 qualified running backs. For a gauge, Duke Johnson has broken seven more tackles than Michel on 57 fewer touches. The Jets held him to 11 yards on nine carries in their first meeting, though he scored a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day and finish as the RB41 that week. He’s seen three targets in each of the last two games, which is a great thing for his fantasy floor, though it would take a hit if Burkhead is able to return. As usual, Michel is going to be a touchdown-or-bust play, but knowing he’s not getting all the goal-line touches, it lessens his appeal. If there’s one good thing, it’s that Michel did total 133 yards and a touchdown in New York last year while he struggled at home totaling just 50 scoreless yards. He’s a high-end RB3 who plays in a high-scoring offense. Did you know that in PPR formats, targets are worth 2.3 times more than carries? Knowing that White has seen nine targets in each of the last three games is equal to 20.7 carries to a running back. Over the last five years of White’s career, he’s scored a touchdown once every 16.9 touches. That number sits at one every 49.0 touches in 2019. Knowing we have such a large sample size we’re working with; you know those are coming. He should be in lineups as a low-end RB2. Even if Burkhead returns, he cannot be trusted until we see him get some touches.

Le’Veon Bell: Here we go again with the Patriots defense. The first time he played against them, he netted a rock-solid 22 touches, though it netted just 63 total yards. We cannot forget that it was when Luke Falk was required to start, and the offense had no prayer of moving the ball down the field in New England. It’s not that it’s a good matchup though, as they’ve held 5-of-6 starting running backs to less than 40 yards rushing. There have been five different running backs who’ve racked up at least four receptions, which is the only positive I could come up with. Knowing there hasn’t been a single running back top 10.9 PPR points against them through six weeks, you’re going to want to avoid Bell in tournaments. His touch potential keeps him cash-game viable every week, though you can find better plays on the slate.

WRs
Julian Edelman: The trend continues with the Patriots passing game. No matter what is happening in the game, the Patriots are dropping back to pass a ton. Now seemingly full healthy, Edelman has seen 24 targets over the last two games, racking up 17 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown. Now onto a matchup with the Jets, who racked up seven receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup between these two teams. Knowing that Brady has thrown at least two touchdowns against them in each of their last seven meetings, you want to find where they’re going, and Edelman is the only starting wide receiver not dealing with some sort of ailment. The one issue standing in his way is Brian Poole, who’s been really good for the Jets, allowing just 13-of-21 passing while in the slot for just 90 yards. In fact, the Jets haven’t allowed a touchdown in the slot this year. Edelman runs about 65 percent of his routes in the slot, so there’s opportunities on the perimeter as well. He scored his touchdown against Daryl Roberts back in Week 3. You’re starting a wide receiver who’s locked into seven-plus targets from Brady as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Josh Gordon: Chasing down a defender, Gordon rolled up on his leg awkwardly and missed a lot of last week’s game. He looks unlikely to play in this game, so it’s best to have other plans at wide receiver. If anything changes, I’ll come back and update his notes here. *Update* He hasn’t practiced, so it appears he’s unlikely to play. 

Phillip Dorsett: It seems the Patriots are expecting Dorsett back after missing one game with his hamstring injury, so we’ll approach this like he’ll play, though it’s worth monitoring as the week goes on. The matchup is one you ideally have him for, as the Jets have allowed nine different wide receivers to catch five or more passes against them. Dorsett was one of the players on that list when he tallied 6/63/1 on seven targets against them in Week 3. Things had been ramping up for Dorsett throughout the year, as he’d seen seven and nine targets in Weeks 3 and 4, but that’s when the injury struck. We don’t know if they’ll ease him back in, but during bye weeks, you may not have someone who’s a sure thing. Provided he practices in full at least one of the days, Dorsett should be considered a middling WR4 who has a low floor considering the soft-tissue nature of his injury, but he also comes with a WR2 ceiling. *Update* Dorsett has been limited in practice this week, which means he’s not a lock to play with that hamstring injury. If relying on him, snag Jakobi Meyers as a backup plan. 

Jakobi Meyers: In his first NFL start, Meyers saw four targets and caught all of them for 54 yards. It wasn’t a great day, but it also wasn’t a bad day. He did what he was asked. The Patriots seem confident they’ll get Dorsett back this week, but even if he’s back, Gordon may be out, meaning Meyers would remain in the lineup. There’s a lot of ifs going on in this Monday night contest, but if Meyers does get on the field, he’s a stable presence for Brady going back to their time in the preseason. Even on the 10 targets he’s seen in-season, he’s caught eight of them for 120 yards. If you have Gordon or Dorsett and want to wait it out, Meyers is a great backup plan.

Robby Anderson: He’s going to receive the Stephon Gilmore treatment this week, which is not good for anyone involved. Here are his last four matchups with the Patriots (most recent first): 3/11/0, 3/24/0, 2/22/0, 1/2/0. There have been just two wide receivers who’ve finished as top-24 options against the Patriots, and both were slot-heavy receivers (Golden Tate, Cole Beasley). The best perimeter performance against them was John Brown, who finished with 5/69/0 but took 11 targets to get there. Anderson hasn’t seen more than seven targets under Adam Gase. He’s not someone you should aim to play this week and should be considered a mediocre WR4 option.

Demaryius Thomas: With Anderson getting Stephon Gilmore in coverage, it means Thomas will see a lot of Jason McCourty, who’s been just as dominant in coverage. On the year, he’s seen 32 targets and allowed just 17/159/0 on them. That’s less than 5.0 yards per target and he’s yet to allow a touchdown. Yeah, Thomas has practiced against these guys, but that doesn’t mean he’ll produce. You can find better bye week options at wide receiver.

Jamison Crowder: If there’s one player who benefits from the matchup with the Patriots, it’s Crowder. The top three performances against the Patriots this year have been Golden Tate (88 percent slot-rate), Cole Beasley (82 percent slot-rate), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (69 percent slot-rate). Knowing that Crowder has played plays 70 percent of his snaps in the slot is a good thing. Jonathan Jones is the primary slot cornerback for the Patriots, and though he’s still been solid, he’s the weakest link while allowing an 84.5 QB Rating in his coverage. He’s not a sexy play, but he’s the best play among the Jets wide receivers. Consider him a low-upside WR3/4 who should present a decent floor.

TEs
Ryan Izzo (likely out): He was on the field for 79-of-81 snaps in Week 6. That’s elite territory, my friends. If he keeps playing that many snaps, Izzo is going to be fantasy viable. He’s seen just six targets over the last two games, though he’s netted 70 yards and a touchdown on them. If Matt LaCosse is ruled out with knee and/or ankle injuries, Izzo is likely to play a lot of snaps. Unfortunately, the matchup this week is not a great one. They played the Jets back in Week 1 where Brady threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, but Izzo totaled just one catch for 41 yards. It does help that there are so many injuries surrounding him, as it’s possible they feature him a bit more than those missing practice time. Still, the Jets have allowed just 7.27 yards per target to the tight end position, along with a fairly-low 63.3 percent completion-rate. With Matt LaCosse out, Izzo played a massive 97 percent of the snaps last week. They did sign Eric Tomlinson to the roster, but Izzo should be the top guy right now. If you’re looking for an emergency streamer, Izzo may not be a great option with the matchup, but he’s an option, nonetheless. *Update* Izzo is dealing with a concussion and is now likely out for Monday night’s game. 

Ryan Griffin: It doesn’t seem like Chris Herndon is going to play this week, making Griffin the starter for Darnold. While some, myself included, just want to write off Griffin, he’s seen seven of his 10 targets this season in the two games Darnold has played, so maybe it’s just that Darnold likes his tight ends. The Patriots shut down running backs and wide receivers, so what about tight ends? They’ve allowed the fewest points per game to them as well. To be fair, they’ve only faced 22 targets against the position (2nd-lowest). On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 8.68 yards per target, which is slightly above average. Going back to the same scheme last year, they allowed just 7.17 yards per target, though they did allow a touchdown every 14.5 targets, which was the ninth-most often. Griffin isn’t an ideal streamer with just one target in 3-of-5 games, but with Darnold under center, he’s moving closer to the conversation.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Total: 50.5
Line: KC by 4.5

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Was Mahomes limited by his mobility last week? Yeah, likely. He constantly underthrew balls to his receivers, including the long touchdown to Hill where he needed to sky over a defender. This is all part of the allure with Mahomes, as he’s willing to let his receivers make a play on the ball. Against the Broncos, it’ll be a tougher task, as they’ve held all six quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 260 yards through the air. In fact, there’s been just one game where they’ve allowed more than one passing touchdown. Part of the reason they’ve accomplished those feats, though, is due to very low volume. Of the six games they’ve played, just one quarterback topped 33 pass attempts, with 4-of-6 finishing with less than 30 pass attempts. You do have to look at the quarterbacks they’ve played knowing it’s a small sample size but seeing Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers on that list makes it a tad more impressive. The biggest concern with Mahomes in this game is pace, as the Broncos simply slow down the game to the point it limits their opponent’s plays. He’s also traveling to the west coast on a Thursday night game, which isn’t the greatest of scenarios. You’re going to play Mahomes in season-long leagues every week, though him having just three days of rest on his ankle isn’t going to help him get healthier or produce at an elite level. He’s also going to be without his starting left tackle and left guard for this game. One thing I will say… with the way the ball travels in the Denver air, you might just see Mahomes throw the ball over them mountains.

Joe Flacco: He’s now thrown one or zero touchdowns in 5-of-6 games, so it’s not as if many are considering him in season-long leagues. Some may be wondering if he’s streamer worthy against the high-flying Chiefs offense, though not many have had much success against their new and improved scheme. After watching Gardner Minshew surprise in Week 1, they have allowed just one quarterback (Matthew Stafford) average more than 6.7 yards per attempt. Some will look at the overall results of the quarterbacks against them and see three of the last four quarterbacks have finished with 21-plus fantasy points against them, but you need to understand that Lamar Jackson would’ve had just 10.7 fantasy points without rushing, and Deshaun Watson would’ve had just 11.2 fantasy points without rushing. It’s not a smash matchup for quarterbacks right now, and particularly pocket passers like Flacco. There’s always the chance they fall behind quickly and need to sling the ball around while playing catch-up, but that’s not something Flacco is known for. He’s nothing more than an emergency backend QB2 on Thursday night. It does help that the Chiefs may be without two of their three starting cornerbacks, as Kendall Fuller was ruled out, while Bashaud Breeland is questionable.

RBs
Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy: What in the world is going on with the Chiefs backfield? When Andy Reid told us it was going to be a timeshare this offseason, we didn’t want to believe him considering we had a 10-plus year sample size about how he’s used his running backs. Well, he wasn’t lying. Over the last two weeks, the touch-count looks like this: Damien Williams 14, McCoy 12, Darrel Williams 1. The snap-counts look like this: Damien Williams 55, McCoy 41, Darrel Williams 20. Because of that, it’s going to be increasingly difficult to project them in fantasy football. Knowing McCoy is the one who most recently received the most touches, we must consider him the starter. He also played more snaps (27) than Williams (21) in Week 6. After allowing Leonard Fournette 245 total yards in Week 4, the Broncos run defense has looked legit the last two weeks, holding Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Derrick Henry to a combined 66 rushing yards on 30 carries the last two weeks. Ekeler did catch 15 balls in his game against them, though that’s when Philip Rivers turned into a check-down machine. Looking back, the Broncos haven’t allowed a team of running backs more than 3.69 yards per carry outside of the Jaguars. With the lack of uncertainty surrounding the touches, McCoy should be considered a risky RB3 but he’s worthy of a start considering the bye week blues many are left with. Williams can also fall into that same category, though he’s just behind McCoy based on last week’s usage.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: Over the last month, Lindsay has continued to make his case to lead this timeshare in touches, and it’s trending further in his direction. Over the last four games, he’s totaled 59 carries to 41 for Freeman, which is essentially a 60/40 split. Contrary to popular belief (because Lindsay is a smaller back), Freeman has more targets (18 to 12) during that time. This is still a timeshare, but one that Lindsay leads what is roughly a 55/45 split. The Chiefs have been a defense to attack with running backs, as they’ve allowed a top-18 running back performance in each of their last four games. At least one running back has totaled 99 or more rushing yards in each of the last five games, which obviously bodes well for Lindsay. The issue with projecting him for a massive workload is due to gamescript, as the Chiefs are favored in this game and are typically playing out front. That would obviously favor Freeman’s potential as the primary pass-catcher, though his edge over Lindsay in pass routes isn’t much. Dating back to last year, the Chiefs have allowed 29 running backs to post 11.0 or more PPR points against them. Keep in mind that’s over a span of just 22 games, meaning there’s a decent chance both Lindsay and Freeman can finish as top-30 options this week. Knowing Lindsay’s role is safe no matter the gamescript, he should remain in lineups as a low-end RB2. Freeman can be used as a middling RB3/flex option though his upside is a bit limited with Lindsay getting almost all goal-line work (has received 6-of-7 carries inside the five-yard line).

WRs
Tyreek Hill: It’ll be interesting to see how the Broncos approach Hill, as they’ve been using Chris Harris Jr. to shadow opposing No. 1 wide receivers, though there’s no way any one cornerback can handle Hill one-on-one in coverage. That’s not a shot at Harris, either, as he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the game. The Broncos as a whole have not been a matchup to attack with wide receivers as a whole, as they’ve allowed just two top-20 wide receivers through six games. Those two wide receivers were Tyrell Williams (6/105/1) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6/99/1), two speedy wide receivers, though it’s important to note that neither of them were shadowed by Harris. It’ll be interested to see how they try to bracket Hill, who does move into the slot almost half the time, only making it more difficult to tilt a coverage a certain way. Hill needs to be in lineups as a WR1 every week. He’s going to have his ups-and-downs, but if the Broncos trust Harris in single-man coverage, the Chiefs will make them pay. The Broncos defensive unit did a good job with Hill last year, but it’s an entirely new scheme with new personnel all over the place.

Demarcus Robinson: With Sammy Watkins out another week, Robinson will be a full-time player once again in Week 7. It hasn’t helped him outside of one game against the Raiders, though. Despite averaging 5.8 targets per game in the four games since then, Robinson has not totaled more than four receptions or 43 yards. In fact, he was held to zeroes across the board last week. The Broncos haven’t been a team to attack with wide receivers to this point, as they’ve allowed just five receivers to top 47 yards through six games. They’ve also allowed just two touchdowns to receivers, so it’s tough seeing Robinson break out of his slump in this game. He has Mahomes throwing to him, so he’s in play for tournaments, but you can find much safer options in redraft leagues.

Mecole Hardman: His target share has actually been quite consistent this year, as he’s seen in-between 4-6 targets since Week 2. That may be tough to rely on for consistent production, but the explosiveness he offers after the catch combined with his manageable 12.1-yard average depth of target typically amounts to production with Mahomes. He’s finished with at least 8.5 PPR points in 4-of-5 games since taking on a bigger role, so his floor has been much better than Demarcus Robinson. They also use Hardman in the slot a lot more than Robinson, which is an area the Broncos have allowed some production. Both Dede Westbrook (5/66/0) and Adam Humphries (6/47/0) were able to post respectable fantasy numbers while seeing six targets in their matchups with the Broncos. He is on the solid WR4 radar this week with byes in full effect.

Courtland Sutton: It may not have been a massive game, but Sutton extended his seven-plus target streak to six games with Flacco last week. He’s consistently being targeted, which is ultimately the best-case scenario out of a player you’re relying on for WR3 production most of the time. The Chiefs cornerbacks did a solid job keeping Deandre Hopkins in check last week, though Sutton is used quite a bit differently, as his 11.5 air yards per target easily trumps Hopkins’ measly 9.5 air yards per target. We did see Will Fuller get behind the Chiefs defense on multiple occasions but ultimately dropped three should-be touchdowns. Sutton will see Charvarius Ward much of the game, a cornerback who put his name on the map towards the end of last year and has continued playing well for much of 2019. He’s seen 33 targets in coverage this year, allowing 19 receptions for 253 yards and one touchdown. He allowed 7/123/0 of that in Week 1 against the Jaguars but has been pretty lights out since that time. Sutton is someone you want to keep plugging in as a WR3 with the volume he’s getting, though the matchup isn’t as great as we might’ve hoped.

Emmanuel Sanders: It seems Sanders will be good to go on Thursday night barring a setback. That’s the good news. The bad news is that his targets have been sporadic as of late, going 7-13-5-9-1-3. That’s a wide variety of outcomes for a receiver that seemed like he was going to be dependable for WR3 production. Against the Chiefs, Sanders has the ability to beat any cornerback on their roster. It also helps that they just lost Kendall Fuller for a period of time. Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland (worth noting he’s questionable for this game) have done a great job in coverage this year, as there have been just five wide receivers who’ve been able to top 50 yards against them, and two of them came in Week 1. There were a few Texans who could’ve/should’ve had big games last week, but dropped some surefire touchdowns. The biggest concern with Sanders is his health and target fluctuation, which makes him a risky WR3.

TEs
Travis Kelce: If there is any owner panicking about Kelce in your league, now is the time to buy. They may be having some remorse about spending a first-round pick on a tight end who’s caught just one touchdown, but don’t worry, they’re coming soon. His yardage is right in line with what is was last year, which would rank third all-time at the tight end position. The list of tight ends who’ve played against the Broncos this year has been weak outside of Darren Waller. Here’s the list: Waller (finished as the TE7), Adam Shaheen, Jimmy Graham, James O’Shaughnessy, Virgil Green, and Delanie Walker. Knowing this is a new scheme, it’s tough to make any concrete conclusions about how good or bad they are at defending the tight end position. It doesn’t appear they’re an extremely giving team against tight ends, but as we saw with Waller – who caught 7-of-8 passes for 70 yards – it’s not a matchup that you must avoid, as he was the only one who was heavily targeted. When looking at tight ends, you play those who are locked into targets and think about the matchup afterwards. Kelce has seen at least eight targets in 5-of-6 games and happens to have the best quarterback in the game throwing him the ball. He’s an elite TE1 each and every week.

Noah Fant: There seems to be a big movement of analysts who’ve liked Fant as a DFS play the last few weeks, though I’m not sure why. He’s still yet to see more than four targets in a game and has yet to reach 40 yards in a game. He’s now caught just three balls for 22 scoreless yards over the last two weeks combined. The Chiefs are a matchup to target with tight ends, typically because we see their opponents chucking the ball all over the field, as three quarterbacks have totaled 38 or more attempts against them. We’ve watched three different tight ends see seven targets against them, though none have reached 70 yards, and just two have topped 39 yards. The list of tight ends they’ve played includes Darren Waller, Jack Doyle, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson, so it’s not as if they’ve played a bunch of backup-type options. If Emmanuel Sanders misses this game, it could free up some targets in the offense, though it’s not certain it leads to any more targets for Fant. He’s nothing more than a middling TE2 who hasn’t shown any sort of ceiling in his young NFL career.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.