Erickson’s Week 7 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 7. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

• Pat Fitzmaurice’s Weekly Rankings
• Matthew Freedman’s Weekly Rankings
• Derek Brown’s Weekly Rankings
• Joe Pisapia’s Weekly Rankings

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings.

Enjoy!

Check out all of our Week 7 fantasy football content

BYE WEEK TEAMS: Bills, Rams, Vikings, Eagles

Thursday Night Football

Saints at Cardinals

• The Cardinals have allowed the league’s lowest air yards (507) and third-lowest depth of target but rank 6th in yards after the catch allowed.
• Factors in well for Alvin Kamara who leads the Saints in yards after the catch this season.
• Kamara posted 99 rushing yards on 19 carries with six catches on 9 targets with 25 yards to boot (29% target share) in Week 6. But no scores for AK41. However, he was targeted 4 times in the red zone. With his usage super encouraging over the last two weeks, it’s just a matter of time till Kamara pops off a multi-TD game.
• Chris Olave looks to make his return from a Week 5 concussion. Friendly reminder that in Weeks 2-5, the rookie commanded a 30% target share and 47% air yards share. Now, it should be noted that Olave’s lack of YAC-ability – 82nd in YAC/reception this season – doesn’t lend itself to him lining up for a smash game against Arizona. But the sheer volume he should see among a depleted Saints receiving corps puts him into WR2 territory.
• DeAndre Hopkins will be making his return to the starting lineup – more specifically the left side of the formation – after serving a 6-game suspension to start the season. With Marquise Brown out, I’d expect Hopkins to see plenty of opportunities in the Cardinals pass-happy offense, and I wouldn’t be hesitant to start him if I held onto him this whole time. Even if he is on a pitch count, he should be relied on heavily in the red zone.
• He led the team in red-zone targets (14) and TDs (7) in 10 games played in 2021.
• Arizona has struggled in the red zone so far this season, scoring TDs on just 33% of their RZ trips in the last 3 weeks.
• It’s also a great matchup for Hopkins against a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the WR position.
• Also bodes well for Rondale Moore, who is also a strong start. Moore commanded 10 targets (28% target share) in Week 6 for 6 catches and 49 yards, while running a route on 98% of Kyler Murray‘s dropbacks. Nobody else ran more routes on the Cardinals.
• However, I am much less bearish on Robbie Anderson. He was just dealt to the team and hardly has the pedigree of a WR you MUST start in a plus matchup. If you added him off waivers, just keep him on your bench. Definitely could be on pitch count on a short week if he even plays at all.
• Tight end Juwan Johnson should be added and started this week versus the Arizona Cardinals. They are one of the worst defenses against TEs this season, and Johnson has routinely seen great deployment in the Saints offense. He ran a route on 81% of dropbacks in Week 6. Also, Adam Trautman got hurt during the game and has already been ruled out, creating more opportunities for Johnson.
• Zach Ertz has a tough matchup this week, as New Orleans has been elite against TEs this season. No.2 in fantasy points and 1st in DVOA against the position this season.
• Cardinals Kicker (possibly Matt Prater or Rodrigo Blankenship) could be a solid streaming option. The Saints rank 3rd in FG attempts faced this season.
• Wil Lutz is in a similar great spot – Arizona ranks 7th in field goals allowed per game (2.2).

Favorite DFS plays:

• WR DeAndre Hopkins ($10,200)
• TE Juwan Johnson ($3,000)
• WR Rondale Moore ($5,800)

* All DFS prices via DraftKings

Sunday Early Afternoon Slate

Browns at Ravens

• Lamar Jackson posted his 3rd straight poor game passing (almost all without Rashod Bateman, who still had 7-77-0 rushing). I’d buy low with Bateman making his potential return vs a Browns defense that just got shredded by Bailey Zappe.
• Kenyan Drake – not J.K. Dobbins – led the Ravens backfield in touches (11 to 7) and snap share (58% vs 27%) in Week 6. Drake went over 100 rushing yards (119) and scored. Dobbins hit just 15 yards on 7 carries with zero targets. Dobbins’ knee tightened up, per John Harbaugh. Hence, his quiet second half.
• Drake has started twice this season – Weeks 1 and 5 – and totaled 15 carries for 57 yards with next-to-zero receiving usage. So don’t get carried away if he looks like the “starter.” The Ravens RBs as a group have totaled under 20 opportunities nearly every week, which makes it tougher to trust them. Although, the matchup against a horrible Browns run defense in Week 7 warrants a start if Dobbins can’t go at all (DNPs Wednesday and Thursday). Be mindful that Gus Edwards is also getting closer to his return. Justice Hill is also on track to return Sunday.
• The Browns offensive line is banged up. Pro Bowl RG Wyatt Teller has already said he won’t play. Meanwhile, right tackle Jack Conklin (ankle, limited Thursday) and tackle Joe Haeg (concussion, missed Thursday practice) have missed practice time this week. Slightly concerning for Nick Chubb‘s upside especially with Cleveland entering the game as 6.5-road dogs. Chubb struggled as a rusher in two games versus the Ravens in 2021, combining for just 75 yards on 25 carries and no rushing scores.
• Amari Cooper owns three top-11 finishes this season and two outside the top 80. Woof. Talk about boom or bust. It’s worth noting that his roller-coaster production is tied to his target volume. 7 or more targets in all his home games, and he’s smashed. 6 or fewer on the road, and he busts. That’s why I am slightly concerned about him on the road versus Baltimore despite how great his target share is in the Browns offense (28%).
• He displayed inefficient production last week – 4 catches for 44 yards on 12 targets – but salvaged his day with a score. Baltimore’s secondary has also been playing better as of late
• Conversely, if Cooper does have an off-game, it means that targets are likely flowing toward David Njoku. He has a 20% target share since Week 2, and the Ravens have allowed the third-highest TD rate to TEs this season.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones is also interesting as a deeper play. In his two road games played this season, he has averaged 12 PPR points and 10 targets per game. DPJ ran more routes than Cooper in Week 5. He also saw two deep targets and one red-zone target.
• David Bell could be extremely sneaky in DFS. He saw his route participation increase to 67% in Week 6 (season-high) and the Ravens have been atrocious guarding the slot this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points thanks to slot cornerback Damarion Williams.
• Rashod Bateman returned to practice Wednesday, so I like his chances of returning the week. It’s a much-needed boost for Lamar Jackson in a matchup that Bateman can take advantage of. The Browns are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to outside WRs this season.  Bateman said his foot is getting better every day. Asked whether he’d play Sunday, Bateman said that’s up to head coach John Harbaugh.

Favorite DFS plays:

• QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
• WR Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,100)
• WR David Bell ($3,200)
• TE Mark Andrews ($7,400)
• RB Justice Hill ($4,200)

Buccaneers at Panthers

• Don’t avoid Tom Brady amid his recent struggles. This game is a major get-right spot and one that fantasy managers should be targeting.
• Tied with LAC-SEA for the highest projected pace of play. And the Panthers strengths on defense are in the run game. No.1 in run defense EPA. But 10th-worst in pass defense EPA.
• Chris Godwin led the Buccaneers in targets (12, 32% target share), going for 95 yards in Week 6. It was encouraging to see his snap share rise (89%) and route participation (93%) increase after he sat out the second half of Week 5. Mike Evans with just 4-42 on 4 targets. He was targeted on just 10% of his routes. It’s a reminder that Evans isn’t a target hog like Godwin, and thrives off TDs scores for his fantasy production.
• But for this matchup against Carolina specifically, we could see the typical Evans boom game. The Panthers secondary is banged up and could be without stud CB Jaycee Horn.
• Start tight end Cade Otton. He is slated to start this week with Cameron Brate out. Friendly reminder that when Otton started in Week 5, he ran a route on 92% of dropbacks. He also had 7 targets and six catches for 43 yards, with two red-zone targets.
• Christian McCaffery was traded to 49ers which will create more opportunities for running backs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman played his largest snap share last week (23%) in the post Matt Rhule era. I’d imagine Foreman has the leg up in terms of carries and goal-line work, while Hubbard remains the favorite to see the majority of touches in the passing game. That might be the most advantageous role rest of season and for Week 7 considering projected starting QB Philip Walker threw for -1 air yards last week.
• Eitherway, the matchup in Week 7 versus the Buccaneers is s horrible for both backs. Tampa Bay versus RBs this season: 1st in fewest receiving yards allowed (10.8), 2nd in fewest targets allowed (4.0), 4th in fewest receptions allowed (3.2), 4th in fewest rushing yards allowed (83) and 1st in fewest fantasy points allowed (15.9, PPR, 14.4 HPPR).
• In less than one week, the Panthers have lost 40% of their team’s targets between McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. I guess it means that we could see D.J. Moore flirt with a 30-plus target share which bumps him into WR3 territory despite how bad the QB play.

Favorite DFS plays:

• QB Tom Brady ($6,300)
• WR Chris Godwin ($6,300)
• WR Mike Evans ($6,900)
• TE Cade Otton ($2,700)

Falcons at Bengals

• The Bengals have the league’s No. 3 red-zone defense this season.
• More split backfield for the Falcons in Week 6. Caleb Huntley (16 for 59, 34% snap share) and Tyler Allgeier (15 for 51, 57% snap share) combined for over 100 rushing yards. Although Huntley got more volume in the first half (9 for 36) and the red-zone usage. Both guys will be in the RB3 conversation next week versus a Bengals run defense that will be without key run defenders such as DJ Reader, Josh Tupou and Logan Wilson. Allgeier will be used more if the Falcons have to throw, based on his 71% route participation.
• Teams are throwing on the Falcons at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (64%).
• Over the last two weeks, the Bengals rank 1st in early-down pass frequency (69%). And 10% pass rate over expectation. Ergo, expect the Bengals to attack the Falcons’ pass defense that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game (281.2).
• They also rank 30th in DVOA versus shotgun formations, which the Bengals ran exclusively in Week 6.
• Tee Higgins saw 10 targets in Week 6 (6-for-47) despite being limited all week with an ankle injury. The results were not great, but his 90% route participation indicates he is healthy. Start him with confidence.
• I’d also feel solid about starting Hayden Hurst. His route participation was strong in Week 6 – 74% – but he fell victim to the Saints’ No.1-ranked defense versus tight ends. The matchup is more favorable in Week 7, as the Falcons have allowed the second-most targets and fourth-most fantasy points to TEs this season. Hurst does not have an injury designation entering this game.
• Kyle Pitts is also in a solid spot should the Falcons be forced into throwing if the Bengals build a lead. The Falcons tight end reclaimed elite usage in Week 6 – 82% route participation. On the season, he owns the second-highest target share (24%) and air yards share (30%) among TEs.
• The Bengals rank fourth in yards, fifth in receptions and fifth in targets faced by TEs this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• QB Joe Burrow ($6,900)
• WR Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200)
• WR Tee Higgins ($6,400)
• TE Hayden Hurst ($3,500)
• TE Kyle Pitts ($4,300)

Lions at Cowboys

• Start Cowboys running backs. Dallas owns the second-highest implied team total, and the Detroit Lions rank dead last in rushing defense EPA.
• Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard split usage 50/50 in Week 6, so I expect both to find success running the ball.
• Additionally, the Lions also own the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense based on EPA. So it’s a no-brainer to play CeeDee Lamb, who leads the NFL in target share (35%) this season.
• But don’t sleep on Michael Gallup. The Cowboys WR posted a team-high 33% air yards share (nearly 100 air yards) in Week 6 while playing a season-high 76% snap share but he caught just two passes on 7 targets. He also owns a 23% target share over the last two weeks. I’d expect a blow-up game to be on deck for Gallup versus the lowly Lions. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA against No. 2 WRs this season.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown was on a pitch count (32% snap share) which resulted in just four catches for 18 yards in 6 targets in Week 5. But it shouldn’t be ignored that when ASB was running routes, Jared Goff was peppering his No. 1 wideout. 38% target rate per route run, 6% percentage points higher than his target rate entering Week 5 (32%). Start him while he’s coming off the bye week. He’ll be healthy and help you toward your playoff run. 28% target share for ASB this season – a top-10 mark at the position. Both D.J. Chark Jr. (out) and Josh Reynolds (questionable) are hurt, which further bolsters the case for ASB.
• T.J. Hockenson has finished as a top-12 fantasy TE twice this season. One in the game that St. Brown got hurt in and the other that ASB missed entirely. He’s been a total zero when St. Brown has been active, so I’d be wary of Hockenson delivering a massive game against Dallas. The Cowboys have been great at defending the position this season. Despite ranking 3rd in targets allowed to TEs, they rank 7th in the fewest yards allowed. Also just one of 6 teams to not allow a tight end touchdown this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• QB Dak Prescott ($6,700)
• RB Tony Pollard ($5,700)
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100)
• WR Michael Gallup ($5,100)

Giants at Jaguars

• The Giants rank 5th in rushing yards allowed per game (144.8), but they have allowed just 2 rushing TDs on the season. Every other team inside the bottom 5 in terms of rushing yards allowed has given up at least 5 TDs…with 3 of the 4 giving up 9 rushing scores.
• Eventually, regression will catch up to the Giants run defense and they will allow a multi-touchdown game on the ground. And I bet that blow-up game comes from Travis Etienne Jr.
• He is the leader of the backfield in snaps, yards, targets and routes run over the last 3 weeks. ETN is also PFF’s fifth-highest-graded rusher this season.
• Saquon Barkley‘s 18% (4th) target share should only grow against the Jaguars. Their defense ranks 31st in receiving yards and targets to RBs this season. RB1 overall potential this week for Big Blue’s RB1.
• Christian Kirk ran a route on 100% of dropbacks in Week 6 and commanded a respectable 23% target share (5 targets). The usage resulted in under 30 receiving yards, but he did score. Kirk has just 5 catches for 35 yards in the last two weeks on a 16% target share. It’s a far cry from his fast start, and it doesn’t seem likely it will improve drastically in Week 7. The Giants rank second in the fewest fantasy points allowed to the slot this season and No. 1 in the fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs overall.
• Giants safety Julian Love is being targeted on just 10% of his routes covered this season – tied for second-best in the NFL. He often plays in the slot. New York’s true slot CB Darnay Holmes, has allowed the league’s sixth-lowest passer rating from the slot this season.
• Evan Engram led the team with 6 targets for 40 yards on 5 catches while maintaining his top-tier route participation. Fine streamer versus the Giants (revenge game) in Week 7.
• Tight end Daniel Bellinger played on 94% of the Giants offensive snaps and led the team with 5 targets (20% target share). He caught all five for 38 yards and one TD while running a route on 81% of dropbacks. The rookie owns a 17% target share and has at least 2 catches in every single game since Week 3.
• Wan’Dale Robinson posted a 3-37-1 stat line back from injury but played on just 23% of the snaps. However, he was hyper-targeted, earning a target on 36% of his routes run. With no answers at WR for the Giants, you can play Robinson if you added him off waivers this week. Playing time should increase, while his target rate remains high.
• Jaguars slot cornerback Darious Williams is also horrible. He ranks fourth in targets and fifth in allowed receiving yards defending inside this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• RB Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,400)
• WR Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,500)

Colts at Titans

• Matt Ryan is more than serviceable as a streaming fantasy QB in Week 7. The Titans are allowing a league-high 6.6 TD passing percentage. He finished with 356 passing yards and 2 TDs back in Week 4 versus the Titans.
• Rookie Alec Pierce was super productive in this matchup when Indy played the Titans in Week 4, catching four of six targets for 80 yards. Worthy of a FLEX spot. Pierce is averaging 68 receiving yards and a 24% target rate per route run over the last four weeks.
• The Titans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season.
• Michael Pittman Jr. ranks 5th in receptions per game (7.6) this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• WR Alec Pierce($4,600)
• WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,400)
• QB Matt Ryan ($5,400)

Packers at Commanders

• This game has the slowest projected pace of play among any on the slate. SLOG.
• Green Bay ranks last in adjusted seconds per play.
• Brian Robinson followed up his seasonal debut in Week 5, with a solid effort on Thursday night football in Week 6. The rookie running back rushed 17 times for 60 yards and one rushing touchdown at the goal line. His 55% opportunity share in just his second NFL game is super encouraging for him ROS. Should be noted that he was not targeted as he only ran 6 routes (24%). Antonio Gibson and Jd Mckissic were both more involved in the passing game, but neither played more than 30% of the snaps.
• B-Rob is going to need to score again to pay off starting him in Week 7, with Taylor Heinicke under center for an injured Carson Wentz. Luckily Green Bay is allowing 53% of their opponent’s TDs on the ground and the 6th-most rushing yards per game (135.2).
• Robert Tonyan had a monster day through the air – 10 catches for 90 yards on 12 targets. It also came when Tonyan’s route participation spiked up to 76%, which is no coincidence. Start Tonyan and trust him as a plugin-play option with him looking fully back from his injury if you are desperate. Just note that Washington’s defense has allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to TEs this season.
• A.J. Dillon out-carried Aaron Jones (10 vs 9), but the former saw more targets (6 vs 4). Both guys have been colossal disappointments in an offense that frankly is just not that good. Washington’s run defense ranks 7th in EPA this season, so I am pessimistic that this is the right spot for the Green Bay run game to generate momentum.
• Sit Terry McLaurin. The Packers defense ranks 5th in fewest fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs and 4th in fewest targets allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs. TMC thrives off big plays and new quarterback Taylor Heinicke ranked 35th out of 37 qualifying QBs in deep-ball passing grade last season. Carson Wentz ranked fourth in that metric this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• WR Allen Lazard ($6,100)
• WR Romeo Doubs ($5,000)
• RB Brian Robinson ($5,500)

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

Sunday Late Afternoon Slate

Jets at Broncos

• Denver has the league’s No. 1 red-zone defense this season.
• Corey Davis has been Zach Wilson‘s favorite and most productive receiver since his return, and it’s taking a toll on the other New York WRs. Garret Wilson led the Jets in targets in Week 6 (5, 29% target share), but caught just one pass on 62% routes run rate. He was targeted at an elite rate of 38%. Elijah Moore was not even targeted despite running a route on 67% of dropbacks. And he has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game due to a personal issue. Woof.
• However, Davis’ status as the team’s No.1 will spell doom for him in Week 7 because that means he will draw coverage from Patrick Surtain. That will make Davis near obsolete, and create more opportunities for Wilson to earn targets. The Broncos defense has allowed the most targets (8.1) to No. 2 WRs this season.
• Melvin Gordon/Mike Boone/Latavius Murray = GROSS
• Broncos backfield managers’ worst fears were realized in Week 6, with Denver blowing up their running back carousel entirely. Latavius Murray led the backfield in snaps (47%) and touches (16) followed by Mike Boone (36%, 2) and then Melvin Gordon III (16%, 2). Murray was the primary ball carrier with 15 carries for 66 yards – 67% opportunity share – while Boone ran the most routes and saw the most RB targets (4). MG3 did enter this game with a questionable tag, which could have influenced his lack of playing time. But reports post-game surfaced that he was indeed benched for the other Broncos RBs. Regardless, this backfield is going to be tough to trust with 3 guys involved.
• And that even considers the “conversation” head coach Nathaniel Hackett had with Gordon following the game. Gordon will now “start” in Week 7, but I hardly think this is a coaching staff you can trust in any capacity. Technically, Gordon started last week too. We all saw how that played out.
• It’s a tough spot for the Denver WRs this week. Obviously, Russell Wilson is dealing with an injury and has been struggling even while healthy. And the Jets perimeter CBs spell trouble for Courtland Sutton. They are one of just two teams that have two CBs rank inside the top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed per coverage snap this season. RCB D.J. Reed (0.12, 4th) and LCB Sauce Gardner (0.15, 10th) have helped New York’s pass defense rank 7th in fewest receiving yards allowed per game to opposing WRs.
• Locking down the perimeter could open up more targets in the middle of the field for rookie tight end Greg Dulcich. He played a featured role on Monday night, running a route on 71% of the Broncos’ dropbacks while commanding 3 targets. One went for a TD and the other was a target in the end zone.
• The Jets rank 3rd in targets to TEs this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

• WR Garrett Wilson ($4,500)
• RB Breece Hall ($6,200)
• TE Greg Dulcich ($2,500)

Texans at Raiders

• Don’t expect the Texans to just lay down at the hands of the Raiders. Vegas boasts the league’s 32nd-ranked red-zone defense this season.
• They have allowed the league’s 3rd-highest passing TD rate (6.2%)
• That makes WR Nico Collins a very interesting option in deeper formats and daily fantasy.
• In the Texans’ last four games, Collins has more receiving yards than Cooks. 61.5 yards per game versus 38.5 yards per game. Collins is also dominating the high-value targets downfield with a 40% air yards share. And each saw 6 targets in Week 5 while seeing identical route participation (92%).
• Derek Carr may not be in such a smash spot this week versus the Texans. Their defense has been much better versus the pass than the run this year. Overall, they rank 4th in lowest passing TD rate faced and red zone scoring rate.
• Overall, they have allowed the 8th-most passing yards per game (284.4). Carr ranks 5th in passing air yards per game (312.2). Houston ranks bottom-5 in yards per completion.
• Although that doesn’t mean Davante Adams and his 32% target share can’t get there on yardage. As FantasyPros analyst Matthew Freedman pointed out…the Texans have given up major yardage totals to perimeter WRs.
• W1: Michael Pittman, 9-121-1 (13 targets), W2: Courtland Sutton, 7-122-0 (11), W3, Darnell Mooney, 2-23-0 (6), W4: Mike Williams, 7-120-0 (11) and W5: Marvin Jones, 7-104-0 (11)
• Houston’s run defense is where they have struggled immensely on defense, allowing the league’s 4th-highest scoring rate and the third-most rushing yards per game.
• Josh Jacobs totaled an 81% snap share and 84% opportunity share in Week 5, to the tune of 21 carries for 154 rushing yards and 1 TD. Also added 5 catches on 5 targets for 39 yards. He’s a full-on bellcow and locked-and-loaded RB1 for Week 7.
• Dameon Pierce got FED the last time we saw him. 29 TOUCHES. 84% opportunity share. 79% snap share. 26 carries for 99 yards. 5 targets on a 52% route run rate. Rex Burkhead had just three carries. Three targets. Pierce is a no-doubt bellcow and a top-15 fantasy option for the rest of the season.
• Versus the Raiders, I’d expect more of the same. Las Vegas ranks top-5 in run defense EPA but also top-10 in missed tackles.

Favorite DFS plays:

• RB Josh Jacobs ($6,500)
• WR Davante Adams ($8,700)
• WR Nico Collins ($4,200)
• QB Derek Carr ($5,900)
• RB Dameon Pierce ($6,400)

Seahawks at Chargers

• LA has the highest implied team total on the slate
• This game also has the highest projected pace of play
• Sets up as a nice spot for the Chargers TEs as the Seahawks rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position this season.
• However, be warned that Gerald Everett‘s usage is down over the last two weeks. The Chargers are utilizing a three-way committee at tight end between Everett, Donald Parham and Tre’ McKitty. As a result, Everett’s route participation (61%), snaps (55%) and production decreased in the last two weeks.
• But for those looking to think positively in Everett’s direction, Parham is in the concussion protocol. Under the new procedures, he will miss Week 7, making Everett an auto start.
• I’d go right back to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf without any hesitation after they dudded out last week. Lockett saw multiple deep targets in Week 6, but he and Geno Smith could not connect. Same for Metcalf and his multiple red zone targets he commanded but failed to convert on.
• LA’s defense ranks 28th versus the deep ball this season.
• Prefer Metcalf slightly over Lockett in Week 7, because of the matchup against strong Bolts cornerback Bryce Callahan in the slot. He ranks second in the NFL in the fewest yards allowed per coverage snap (0.35) this season. Lockett is also dealing with a hamstring injury.
• Metcalf also owns a 30% target share over the last three games.
• Kenneth Walker is way too cheap on DraftKings this week based on his usage matchup against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Walker totaled 21 carries for 97 yards and 1 rushing TD. Also caught 2-of-3 targets for 13 yards. A monster 92% opportunity share and more routes run than DeeJay Dallas. Dallas had just 2 carries and zero targets. KW3 is a fantasy RB1 from here on out.
• Seattle’s defense ranks dead last in passing EPA, so you’ll head right back to Mike Williams with confidence this week. No Patrick Surtain coverage this week. And despite Big Mike’s “bleh” production – 2 catches for 17 yards – he still saw over 100 air yards and two red-zone targets.
• HC Brandon Staley said Keenan Allen will be a game-time decision. If he does play, he will be on a pitch count of sorts. Likely this is related to Chargers just not having enough WRs, with Joshua Palmer ruled out with a concussion.

Favorite DFS plays:

• RB Kenneth Walker ($5,800)
• WR Mike Williams ($7,200)
• WR DK Metcalf ($6,600)
• TE Gerald Everett ($4,000)
• QB Justin Herbert ($7,200)
• QB Geno Smith ($5,600)

Chiefs at 49ers

• Jimmy G is one of this week’s top streamers. The 49ers defense is banged up, which will make it tougher for them to keep containment on Patrick Mahomes and company. Last week, the 49ers passed on 60% of their plays (6% over expectation).
• Also, the Chiefs defense just loves to give up receptions and completions underneath. They have allowed the most completions of any defense. As a result, they have allowed the most YAC of any team in the NFL. And we know all too well that this is exactly Jimmy Garoppolo‘s bread and butter.
• Keep tabs on the 49ers injury report. Because their health on defense dramatically changes how we should view the Chiefs skill players.
• Charvarius Ward practiced Friday Arik Armstead (foot) is out, and Drake Jackson also practiced. All in all, the unit looks much healthier than it did to start the week.
• It’s a shame because a depleted defense was needed for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He continues to see horrible usage. Zero targets and just nine carries for 33 yards in Week 6. He’s TD-or-bust. Jerick McKinnon (3 targets) is lapping him as a receiver. And Isiah Pacheco saw more targets than him for the first time all season in Week 6.
• Since George Kittle returned from injury in Week 3, he has earned a 20% target share. Brandon Aiyuk is just ahead of him at 21%, but Deebo Samuel ranks first with a 27% target share.
• Samuel ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch (266). And the Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards per game to No. 1 WRs this season. Along with the league’s 4th-highest passing TD percentage and 4th-worst red zone defense.
• Christian McCaffery was traded to 49ers this week and the word is he will play in Week 7 with a red zone package. Considering the amount of draft capital SF gave up for CMC — 2nd round pick in 2023, a third-rounder in 2023, fourth-round pick in 2023 and a fifth-rounder in 2024 — there’s no time to waste getting him into game action.
• I’d buy that narrative the McCaffrey will see work in the red zone as the 49ers have heavily relied on the run game when they have been close to scoring this season. They rank 3rd in run rate, second in expected run rate and 29th in pass rate over expectation (-12.7%).
• Jeff Wilson Jr. ranks 14th in red-zone carries this season, so his value gets nuked hard not only for the rest of the season with CMC’s addition… but also in Week 7.
• Not to mention, the Chiefs defense ranks last in almost every single category against RBs in the passing game (receptions, targets, receiving yards) cementing the case for keeping McCaffrey firmly in starting lineups if he suits up. According to head coach Kyle Shanahan, it’s still ‘up in the air” whether McCaffrey plays or not. Stay tuned.

Favorite DFS plays:

• WR Deebo Samuel ($7,600)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500)
• TE George Kittle ($5,300)

Sunday Night Football

Steelers at Dolphins

• Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start on Sunday night football, and it’s a great spot for the Miami Dolphins QB. The Steel Curtain has been shredded by opposing pass games this season, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (289.5).
• The Steelers defense is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. Second-highest yards per reception allowed. 4th-worst in pressure generated. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should all SHRED. Hill ranks first in yards (701), second in receptions (8.3) and targets (10.8) per game.
• A healthy scratch for Myles Gaskin in Miami for Week 6 meant Raheem Mostert‘s RB1 season continued on an 80% opportunity share. The ex-49er totaled 14 carries for 49 yards and zero TDs. He was targeted twice and had one catch because he ran a route on fewer than 50% of dropbacks. Chase Edmonds also had two targets, but just one carry.
• Due to his workload, Mostert can be trusted as an RB2 in Week 7 versus the Steelers. Although his true upside might be limited versus a defense that is much more vulnerable versus the pass than the run.
• Same old same old for Najee Harris. His touches and snaps continue to underwhelm – 16 touches on 69% snap share in Week 6 – making him nothing more than an RB2 in the thick of a tough run of matchups for the Steelers. Miami’s defense ranks 3rd in yards per carry (3.7) and rushing yards per game (71) allowed to RBs this season.
• Kenny Pickett left last week with a concussion. I’d expect him to miss next week based on the new protocols. With Mitchell Trubisky in at QB, Chase Claypool led the team with 5 targets and 5 receptions for 76 receiving yards plus one TD (42% target share). Diontae Johnson and George Pickens were only targeted once. Tight end Connor Heyward saw all three of his targets from Trubisky. Claypool is going to be viable next week versus a Miami Dolphins secondary that is dealing with a plethora of injuries in their secondary. Same for Diontae Johnson, who was earning north of a 30% target share during the beginning of the season when Trubisky was the starter.
• Should be noted that I would increase Pickens’ ranking if Pickett does end up clearing the protocol in time for Sunday night football, and will slightly downgrade Johnson and Claypool.
• Mike Gesicki hauled in the two receiving TDs, six receptions, and 69 receiving yards with no Durham Smythe in the lineup. He ran a route on a season-high 76% of dropbacks, which dramatically changes his projection for the remainder of the season. Makes him playable in fantasy football. But be warned that if Smythe returns, there’s a chance Gesicki crashes and burns in his original role. Buyer beware.

Monday Night Football

Bears at Patriots

• Per Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus, the Bears are going to ride the hot hand at the running back position. Translation: Khalil Herbert SZN.
• The Bears No. 2 RB looked explosive after ripping off a 64-yard run in Week 6 and could have scored even more fantasy points had he converted his 4th-down run at the goal line. And his effectiveness week-to-week has opened the door for him to earn more touches, even if it’s still David Montgomery‘s backfield. Monty out-touched Herbert 16-7 and out-snapped him 78% vs 22%. Monty’s 70% opportunity share and 79% route participation didn’t falter in the short week. But based on what has transpired over the last week-plus, I’d figure the gap closes versus the Patriots.
• Rhamondre Stevenson‘s RB1 smash season won’t stop. A league-leading 70% of the Bears’ touchdowns allowed on defense have come through rushing. Wheels up even if Damien Harris returns from hamstring injury. Keep in mind that in that last game these two guys played together each saw 18-plus touches. Rhamondre had also been playing more snaps than Harris before the injury occurred versus the Lions.
• Start Jakobi Meyers. The Patriots slot WR is tied with Hunter Henry with a team-high 23% target share on 11 receptions for 171 receiving yards. Bears rookie slot CB Kyler Gordon is being picked on weekly facing the fifth-highest target rate (22%) while allowing the third-most coverage yards per snap. Meyers is averaging 6 catches per game this season.
• Rookie Tyquan Thornton scored twice on Sunday, with one rushing TD. Can’t imagine Nelson Agholor (who missed this game) has a starting job if Thornton is healthy. Kendrick Bourne also got hurt in this game, which opened up more opportunities for Thornton. His 57% snap share and 72% route participation were season highs, but he was still firmly behind both Meyers and DeVante Parker in playing time.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

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