The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2018 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Total: 44.5
Line: PIT by 4.0

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Many will tell you that if you can’t explain the reasoning behind a stat, it’s not real. Can someone explain the Roethlisberger home/road splits, because they are absolutely a real thing. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, here’s a chart showing the last five years:

There’s obviously something that happens on the road, as he averages nearly nine less fantasy points over a 73-game sample size. That’s big enough to see trends, so there’s cause for concern, especially when you add in the fact that the Browns defense is loaded with talent and have had Roethlisberger’s old offensive coordinator (Todd Haley) coaching against them in practice. In Cleveland in Week 1 last year, Roethlisberger wound up with 263 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. They’ve shifted a lot of players in the secondary, which could open things up for Roethlisberger, who should be considered a low-end QB1 who could let you down. He’s not someone you should consider in cash games, but I’d likely toss him in a tournament lineup or two with Antonio Brown lining up across from rookie Denzel Ward and Terrence Mitchell.

Tyrod Taylor: After seeing what looked like a dislocated wrist, Taylor found his way back into the third preseason game. It’s somewhat shocking to see the hesitance to snag Taylor in fantasy, as he’s been a top-seven fantasy quarterback (points per game) in two of the last three seasons and is now surrounded by the most talent in his career. With Todd Haley as his offensive coordinator, he may be unleashed now more than ever, as Haley didn’t have a single team finish inside the top-15 in rushing attempts during his six years with the Steelers, and that was with Le’Veon Bell as his running back for the majority of time. Taylor should have both Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon at his disposal against the Steelers, who were one of three teams from Week 1 through Week 16 who didn’t allow a single quarterback to reach 23 fantasy points. A big part of that reason was due to them holding all quarterbacks to less than 20 rushing yards. It’s fair to say that they got worse as the year went on, though, as DeShone Kizer tagged them for 314 yards, two touchdowns, and 61 rushing yards in Week 17, which most don’t look at. Taylor should provide a solid floor as a high-end QB2 who can be used to save some money in cash lineups.

RBs
James Conner: It’s now official – Le’Veon Bell is not going to be playing in Week 1. That leaves Conner, who looking extremely impressive in the preseason to be the team’s workhorse, totaling 100 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries, including another seven catches for 61 yards through the air. Many will simply slot Conner in and expect him to do what DeAngelo Williams did in Bell’s absence, but I’d be a bit more hesitant than that. Not only did the Steelers offensive line lose a long-time starter at right tackle (Chris Hubbard) this offseason, but they also lost offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Both of them will be on the opposite sideline this week with the Browns. The worst part, however, is that the Browns run defense is actually good. They allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to running backs last year, which included just 43 yards on 14 carries to Bell and Conner in last year’s season opener, which was also in Cleveland.  The positive news is that the weather is apparently going to be very bad for this game, which could make for sloppy tackling. This plays right into Conner’s game, as he happens to be a pest to bring down to the turf. The Browns defense has so much more talent than most want to give them credit for, so I’m unwilling to put Conner in the RB1 conversation, but he’s going to have enough volume to play as a safe RB2. Feel free to use him in cash lineups knowing he’s extremely cheap, but I expect him to be heavily owned in tournaments, which gives you an opportunity to be contrarian and play others in his range, like the guy on the other sideline (Carlos Hyde).

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: After seeing the way the running backs were used in the preseason, it’s clear that this is a Hyde/Johnson tandem with Nick Chubb clearly in a backup role. Hyde had some juice in his legs that we didn’t see last year, as he bounced multiple runs outside and looked good doing so. Playing alongside Tyrod Taylor will have a great impact on his efficiency, as defenses are forced to keep a spy on him at almost all times. The Steelers defense allowed a robust 4.44 yards per carry last year, including 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs alone (another two to quarterbacks). They added Jon Bostic to the linebacking corps this offseason but losing Ryan Shazier will prove to be a bit much. Knowing that Roethlisberger doesn’t blow-up the scoreboard on the road, Hyde should have a healthy workload in this game and be considered a solid RB2 who can post RB1 numbers. Knowing how cheap he is in DFS, he can be used in both cash and tournament lineups. As for Johnson, he’s going to be involved as well, though it’s unclear if it will be much more than he was in 2017. Now that Jarvis Landry will eat up some of those shorter targets, and that David Njoku is an every-down player, there’s cause for concern. Still, he’s on the RB3/flex radar because he’ll be used more if the Steelers get out to a lead. He shouldn’t be anywhere near a cash game, but he’s an interesting tournament option.

WRs
Antonio Brown: When you drafted Brown, you likely felt like you missed out on one of the top-tier running backs, though you’re likely to feel better after this game. He’s going to match-up with rookie Denzel Ward and recently-acquire Terrance Mitchell, who the Chiefs let walk (which is telling). The Browns eventually want to use Ward in a shadow role, but they aren’t going to at the start of the season. Mitchell allowed six touchdowns on 86 targets in coverage last year and has never been considered starter-worthy, though the Browns are starting him over E.J. Gaines. It’s very possible that Mitchell gets benched in his first game here, though it’ll already be too late. In last year’s meeting Gregg Williams’ defense could only “hold” Brown to 11 catches for 182 yards, though he didn’t score. He’s an elite-level WR1 play and can be used everywhere without hesitation.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: After dominating in the preseason, Smith-Schuster will look to carry his momentum into the regular season, though Antonio Brown being out there will limit his target share. It’s possible that the Browns best cornerback at this time (Denzel Ward is green) is Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who will cover the slot where Smith-Schuster plays the majority of his snaps. When the two teams met in Week 17 last year, he went off for 9/143/1, but don’t forget that Brown was out of the lineup (and Boddy-Calhoun didn’t cover the slot that game). Knowing that Ben Roethlisberger struggles to throw many touchdowns on the road, it’s tough to get behind Smith-Schuster as anything more than a high-end WR3, though his ceiling is higher than most in his range. He’s not a cash-game option, but he’s not the worst tournament option as a contrarian-play to Brown.

James Washington: I’ve been a huge fan of telling everyone to add Washington in deep leagues, as he’s going to be a player in this league. He is arguably a better version of Martavis Bryant, a guy who saw 84 targets while trying to get off the team. The fact that Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster both had extremely successful rookie seasons with the Steelers tells us that they’re not afraid to get the young guns on the field. While I wouldn’t want to play him in his first NFL game, Washington is likely to be a less than one percent owned player in tournaments, so he’s appealing to those looking for a contrarian play who’s cheap. Just know that it’s possible he splits snaps with Justin Hunter, though I really hope not.

Josh Gordon: So, apparently Hue Jackson is saying that Gordon “will not start” for the Browns, but in my mind that means he’ll be out there after the first snap, or at worst, the first series. Side note: Jackson is still clueless. We saw Gordon take the field after a multi-year absence last year and post 85 yards in his first game back against one of the best cornerbacks in football, so why should we be concerned now? The Steelers have Joe Haden and Artie Burns covering the perimeter, two average NFL cornerbacks, though Haden used to be elite and Burns has high expectations entering his third season. Bottom line, these aren’t cornerbacks you run from when it comes to fantasy lineups. They only allowed five WR1 performances last year, but they did allow 13 top-24 performances, which ranked as the ninth-most in the league. They also have a new duo at safety, so there may be some communication issues to start the season. Gordon is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward WR2-play this week, meaning he’s not the ideal cash-game play. If Hue Jackson gets his mind right and involves Gordon heavily, he can absolutely beat this defense, making him a great tournament option.

Jarvis Landry: After moving up draft boards considerably with the Josh Gordon departure, Landry has found himself as the WR2 on most fantasy teams. It definitely helps that he had more time to learn Todd Haley’s offense and develop chemistry with Tyrod Taylor, which should give him a leg-up early in the season. The issue with loving him too much in Week 1 is that he’ll match-up with last year’s rising star Mike Hilton, who covers the slot for the Steelers. When targeted last year, Hilton allowed just a 69.8 QB rating, largely in-part because he didn’t allow a single touchdown on 41 targets. Landry isn’t a touchdown-scorer anyway, but it’s not a great matchup. The Browns have said they’ll use Landry on the perimeter as well, but I’m expecting him to play 60-70 percent of his snaps out of the slot. He should be considered more of a WR3 this week who has a solid floor, though may not have the ceiling most thought. Knowing the matchup with Hilton isn’t a great one, I’d avoid in cash-games, and he likely doesn’t have the upside for tournaments.

TEs
Vance McDonald/Jesse James: McDonald suffered an injury early in training camp, though we never heard much about his recovery. It’s a foot injury, which is never a good thing for a pass-catcher, especially one who struggled with injuries for the majority of 2017. If McDonald is held out for this game, James becomes an intriguing DFS option against a Browns team who allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2016 and then the fourth-most points to them in 2017. James actually caught both of the touchdowns Ben Roethlisberger threw against them in Week 1 last year, finishing with six catches for 41 yards and two touchdowns. On top of the McDonald question marks, backup tight end Xavier Grimble might not even be active as he’s recovering from hand surgery. There’re points to be had here, but the only way I feel comfortable is if McDonald is out, as I’d then say James is a high-end TE2 streaming option. It’s difficult to recommend McDonald at all after all the missed time/lack of clarity on the injury.

David Njoku: After having him split time with Seth DeValve last year, the Browns appear to be putting Njoku in a full-time role, which could give some fantasy fireworks. The fact that Josh Gordon “isn’t starting” can also bode well for the big-bodied tight end who is likely to be the favorite red zone target of Tyrod Taylor. The issue with loving him too much, however, is that the Steelers were the third-best team in the NFL at defending the tight end position last year, allowing just two tight ends to top 58 yards all season and allowing just two touchdowns to the position. It’s a new offense for the Browns, so the Steelers could get taken off-guard, but don’t forget that the Browns new offense is led by Todd Haley, their former coach. I don’t consider Njoku a terrible play because he’s more of a wide receiver, but it’s not a great matchup, leaving him as a touchdown-or-bust TE2. I do like him in tournament lineups because of the touchdown upside he presents, especially with Gordon potentially limited in his role this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 48.0
Line: LAC by 3.5

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: It’s going to be a completely different scenario for Mahomes when he walks into Week 1 as the starter, as Week 17 games are played a lot differently. He flashed his tremendous arm strength this preseason, but also showed his gunslinger mentality, as he threw an ugly interception which came almost immediately after he threw a should-be interception in the end zone. When playing Mahomes, you’ll have to understand that there’s going to be growing pains. The Chargers will not make life easy on him, either. They racked up 43 sacks last year, which ranked as the fifth-most in the NFL and then added safety Derwin James in the first-round of the draft. They also allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL (yes, lower than the Jaguars). This is a divisional game between two teams that are familiar with one another, which typically lowers the ceiling of the fantasy players. There were just four times last year where the Chargers gave up more than one passing touchdown, and two of those games were to Alex Smith. The touchdowns are important because the yardage is extremely unlikely, as there was just one quarterback (Tom Brady) who threw for more than 273 yards against them. If you have the option, sit Mahomes this week as he’s likely just a mid-tier QB2 who’ll make mistakes on the road.

Philip Rivers: It’s been a tradition with Rivers to be extremely mediocre against the Chiefs, though we must re-evaluate considering all of the pieces the Chiefs lost on the defensive side of the ball. Don’t believe me? Here’s his game logs against them over the last eight games they’ve played:

As you can see, it hasn’t been pretty for Rivers against his divisional rivals. You’d have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time he scored more than 14.8 points against them. However, losing Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Bennie Logan, and Terrence Mitchell is going to add up. Winning a division game is more important than padding the numbers, so expect the Chargers to go somewhat conservative in this home game and pound the ball on the ground. Rivers should provide a solid QB2 floor against the weakened Chiefs defense, but you don’t want to automatically assume that he hits QB1 numbers like some will suggest this week. He makes for a semi-interesting tournament play, but not one I’d have much exposure to.

RBs
Kareem Hunt: After a great rookie season, Hunt finds himself suddenly surrounded with talent. The addition of Sammy Watkins is surely to up the targets to the wide receiver corps, while the Chiefs also get back Spencer Ware from injury, as well as an upgrade with the passing-down back in Damien Williams. Hunt totaled a ridiculous 90.7 percent of the Chiefs carries last year, which will come down. Why? There have been just four running backs who’ve cracked 79 percent over the last three years. The state of the Chiefs defense will also not allow them to run the ball as much as they have in previous years. As for the Chargers, they were destroyed by Hunt last year, as he totaled 183 total yards and a touchdown in the first game, and then 206 yards and two touchdowns in the second game. They were two of his top three performances on the season, so apparently they know something the Chargers don’t. The Chargers did allow over 4.9 yards per carry to running backs last year, though Hunt accounted for two of the four RB1 performances they allowed all season, meaning the yards per carry may have been misleading due to garbage-time, third-down backs, etc. I’m still playing Hunt as an RB1 this week, as I don’t see the Chargers running away with the divisional game. I wouldn’t attack him in cash-games as a road underdog, but feel free to play him in tournaments.

Melvin Gordon: It’s time for Gordon to shine in 2018, as the offensive line is as good as it’s ever been, the defense should allow him to rack up carries, and the coaching staff said they want to use him more in the passing-game. He’s a true workhorse who’s in a position to succeed here as a home favorite. In the two games against the much-better Chiefs defense in 2017, Gordon racked up 248 total yards and two touchdowns. Even going back to the time he played them in 2016, he scored twice in that game, highlighting that Andy Reid focuses more on stopping Philip Rivers than anything. Even with all their defensive starters last year, the Chiefs allowed 15 running backs to crack double-digit PPR games. I just don’t believe the Chiefs have the talent in their front-seven to stop Gordon and the run-game, making him a must-play RB1 and someone I’ll actively be playing in cash-games, as well as tournaments.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: After saying he’d be someone who’d regress in 2018 due to efficiency, it appears the Chiefs are out to make me look dumb because they’re apparently planning on increasing his volume. While playing just 64 snaps this preseason, Hill walked away with 14 targets, of which he turned into 14 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. That’s a target every four snaps, something that obviously won’t continue, but it’s very telling in how they plan on using him more. Did you know Hill topped eight targets just twice last year? If he’s going to become more of a focal point, I was entirely too low on him because he will be efficient (though as I’ve said, he cannot remain as efficient as he’s been the last two years) with his touches. The Chargers have Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams cover the perimeter, though they’re very likely to stick free safety Jahleel Addae to the side of the field Hill is on. It’s a tough secondary to play against, especially when you factor in the pass-rush that Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa generate. For now, I’m confident playing Hill as a high-upside WR2 who can blow the doors off any cornerback in the league. He’s not a cash-lineup guy in this tough matchup, but there won’t be a single week this season where you should cross him off your tournament sheet.

Sammy Watkins: Now that Tyreek Hill is apparently the new target king in Kansas City, we’re left wondering what this means for Watkins, who signed a three-year, $48 million contract in March. Some beat reporters were saying that Watkins looked more like the prototypical No. 1 receiver in the offense, but when they started playing games in the preseason, Watkins was nowhere to be found. He played 67 snaps and saw seven targets, but could only haul in one of them for 15 yards. Andy Reid had talked about getting him into the slot, which would be very beneficial in this matchup so that he doesn’t have to go against Casey Hayward the majority of time. Desmond King plays the slot for the Chargers and he’s the one who’s most beatable, as he allowed a 78 percent catch-rate in coverage last year. Meanwhile Hayward and Trevor Williams combined to allow a QB Rating under 60.0 in their coverage. Not knowing if him playing the slot a lot was just coach-speak, but Watkins isn’t a recommended play in his first game as a Chiefs player. Consider him a risky WR4 who has a tough matchup after a rough preseason. I’ve always believed in his talent, but now on his third team in as many years is tough for anyone.

Keenan Allen: After struggling to start the year, Allen won fantasy titles for his owners in 2017. Most don’t realize that he was the No. 30 wide receiver after 10 weeks of the season and considered a bust. From Week 11 through Week 17, however, he was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver by a whopping 13 fantasy points. With Antonio Gates back, it doesn’t impact his target totals the way that if Hunter Henry were on the field. Allen should be in line for a lot of targets against a Chiefs defense that will trot out Steven Nelson, Kendall Fuller, and Orlando Scandrick at cornerback. Look for the Chargers to play the mismatches here and line up Allen wherever they need to, as he can play any position. Rivers’ struggles against the Chiefs in years past have trickled down to Allen, though he was still usable last year posting 5/61/0 and 5/54/0 in their two games. With all the subtractions on the Chiefs defense, it’s hard not to love Allen as a WR1 this week, though I won’t be as heavy in DFS as I typically would due to Rivers’ history against Reid’s team. From a talent standpoint, the Chiefs don’t have an answer for Allen.

Tyrell Williams: It appeared that there might be enough volume for three Chargers wide receivers before the Antonio Gates signing, but adding him certainly takes some of the icing off the cake. It seems as if the Chiefs are going to use Kendall Fuller on the perimeter, which might turn out to be a mistake, as he started to excel out of the slot for the Redskins. Whatever the case, Williams would likely see the most of Steven Nelson, someone who Andy Reid has benched during his time in Kansas City. He’s not the worst cornerback in the league, but he’s never been tasked with covering a top-tier wide receiver week-in and week-out, either. Not that Williams is a top-tier guy, but he’s capable of beating you deep. Still, he was only able to muster up 46 total yards against the Chiefs last year. That may have had to do with Philip Rivers‘ struggles more than his own, but it’s an added level of risk. Williams needs to hit the big play to live up to a WR4/5-type play, though I’m guessing you can find a better play in Week 1.

Travis Benjamin/Mike Williams: As of this moment, we don’t know which of these two receivers will start in 3WR sets, though I’d assume they want to get Williams on the field sooner rather than later. He was a top-10 pick last year who is supposed to be their solution opposite Keenan Allen in the future. Benjamin is a solid player and played more snaps with the first-team offense in the preseason, so it’s possible that he’s the first man up with Williams rotating. Because of the uncertainty, Williams remains a guy to stash on fantasy benches for when his time comes. I wouldn’t be playing either of these two in Week 1 without knowing their role.

TEs
Travis Kelce: When the Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, I’d said it affected everyone’s upside, including Kelce’s, even though he plays an entirely different position. When breaking down target shares, the volume that Kelce was seeing likely wouldn’t allow for Watkins/Tyreek Hill to combine for 220 targets, so naturally, you have to expect some slight regression. Some increased volume due to the bad defense can definitely help make up for that, but maybe not this week. The Chargers apparently have the answer for Kelce, as he’s totaled just nine catches for 55 yards in the last three games combined against them. We obviously have a new quarterback under center, but Patrick Mahomes isn’t the safe quarterback that Alex Smith was, which may wind up hurting Kelce’s safety week-in, week-out. The addition of Derwin James is a great thing for the Chargers, but if they ask him to cover Kelce in his first NFL game, that could be the wrinkle that allows Kelce to live up to his TE1 status. But in the end, this is not a game to go overweight on Kelce in DFS. You’re always playing him in season-long.

Antonio Gates: I don’t know what I preferred when it came to Gates, as the extra tight end volume left behind seemed like it would be great for someone like Mike Williams, but apparently that was never meant to be. Let’s not pretend that Gates is going to get eight targets a game like he did in his hey-day, but he’s going to likely walk into the 4-6 target range most weeks. Unfortunately for him, the Chiefs will have Eric Berry back at safety, who happens to be one of the best in the game. Even with Berry out last year, Gates was only able to muster up three catches for 40 yards in the two games against them, though he did score on one of them. He’s going to be a streaming option at times, but I wouldn’t want to use him this week. Even if he scores, you could be looking at a stat line of 3/20/1. While that would get him into TE1 territory, there’s no guarantee of that “1” on the end.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Total: 43.0
Line: CAR by 3.0

QBs
Dak Prescott: It seems all but certain that Travis Fredrick, Prescott’s starting center, will miss at least the first week of the season, if not more. He’s a Pro Bowl talent, so his presence will be felt, though the Cowboys do have solid depth behind the starters. But when you add in the fact that he lost Dez Bryant and Jason Witten this offseason, it’s tough to find reliable targets for him to throw to. It also seems as if the Cowboys are dead-set on starting Terrance Williams over Michael Gallup, which further prevents Prescott from posting QB1 numbers. The Panthers defensive front-seven is still a big strength, as Dontari Poe was added to replace Star Lotulelei on the defensive line (which is an upgrade), and they still have Kawaan Short and Julius Peppers playing at a high-level. The secondary is the question mark for them, but again, the Cowboys lack playmakers in the pass-catching department. Because of that, Prescott will need to produce numbers on the ground to get into streaming territory. There were three quarterbacks who rushed for at least 40 yards against the Panthers last year, though they didn’t allow a single rushing touchdown to a quarterback all year. Prescott will have streamable weeks, but this isn’t a game you should be targeting, especially when you consider the low over/under.

Cam Newton: With everyone expecting Christian McCaffrey to be a league-winner, what happens to Newton’s rushing upside? The demise of his impact on the run-game is comical to me, because it’s the one thing he’s constantly dominated. The one time the Panthers tried to take that away, it was very ugly. With Devin Funchess, D.J. Moore, Torrey Smith, Greg Olsen, Curtis Samuel, and McCaffrey available as passing options, Newton has more options than ever. While it’ll be a headache to predict them every week, Newton should provide a bit more stability than his up-and-down 2017 season. The Cowboys have a young cornerback unit, though the linebackers will be the biggest impact in this game. It appears that first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch will not start for them, as Sean Lee, Jaylon Smith, and Damien Wilson are listed as the starters. With them in place last year, the Cowboys allowed at least two touchdown passes in 11-of-16 games. The only quarterbacks who failed to throw at least one touchdown were C.J. Beathard and Eli Manning. The Cowboys did do a decent job of keeping the rushing totals intact, as just one quarterback rushed for more than 32 yards. Still, while missing his starting left tackle and potentially starting right tackle, Newton should run more than usual. Consider him a high-floor low-end QB1 at home this week, though his ceiling might not be as high as usual given his lack of time to throw the ball. He’s in-play for tournaments, but you can find better options in cash lineups.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tavon Austin: Not that the Cowboys didn’t lean on Elliott prior to 2018, but there’s going to be a lot more put on his shoulders this year. The concerning part is that the Cowboys have no other playmakers who force defensive coordinators to use their resources elsewhere. He’ll be seeing 18-plus carries each game and he’s reportedly going to be used in the passing-game a whole lot more. While some will question that as coach-speak, but I believe them as it’s out of necessity. The Panthers were one of the best defenses against the run last year, allowing just 3.87 yards per carry on the year, and not allowing a single running back to rush for more than 85 yards. Three of the top-five performances against them were by Saints running backs, who obviously have other weapons on the team. Elliott will have to get it done through the air, as they allowed nine different running backs to amass at least 30 receiving yards in 2017. Consider Elliott a high-floor RB1/2 option whose ceiling isn’t as high as you’d like in a tough matchup. Austin is an interesting option, as most forget that he was widely considered a top-10 dynasty pick just a handful of years ago. After playing for Jeff Fisher, his stock tumbled, but he’s still a phenomenal athlete who can produce splash plays at times, as he’s had three multi-touchdown games in his career. He’s not someone you play in season-long, but if you’re looking for a long-shot in tournaments, I’d throw him in one or two of them (if you play big volume).

Christian McCaffrey and C.J. Anderson: The hype for McCaffrey has gotten somewhat out of control when you consider the Panthers offensive line wasn’t good before losing Andrew Norwell this offseason. So many people told me/you that McCaffrey did as much as he could with what he had (which was 3.7 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns) last year, but now losing a Pro Bowl offensive guard and potentially two starting tackles is going to make it easier on him? Yes, it appears that Norv Turner wants him to be the bellcow to this offense, but the passing-game is where he’ll make his presence felt. There were nine running backs who totaled at least 30 receiving yards against the Cowboys, including 94 to Todd Gurley and 76 to Chris Thompson. With the limited time Cam Newton will have to throw, expect him to utilize McCaffrey in the passing-game as much as ever, making him a high-end RB2 in standard formats, but a stud RB1 in PPR formats. He’s safe for cash-games this week and you should consider him in tournaments with his receiving potential. Anderson is listed here because there’s likely someone who’ll ask about him, but it appears he’s strictly a handcuff at this point who’ll see 5-8 touches per game, which is not enough to be considered a fantasy option.

WRs
Allen Hurns: So much for Hurns being a complimentary receiver, eh? He’s likely best-suited as a No. 2 or No. 3 in an offense who can step-up in spurts, but the Cowboys will realize in short order that he’s not a guy who should generate 140 targets the way Dez Bryant did. Since breaking onto the NFL scene back in 2014-2015, Hurns has generated just 961 yards and five touchdowns over the last two seasons on 132 targets. While it’s possible that we’re underrating his skill due to playing with Blake Bortles, but the upgrade to Dak Prescott should help increase his efficiency. He’s going to see James Bradberry at times, who had a very strong rookie campaign, though he didn’t improve on what he’d done in his sophomore season. Still, he’s an above-average NFL cornerback, though it’s unlikely he’ll shadow Hurns, meaning he’ll also see rookie Donte Jackson in coverage. Jackson is a fast cornerback who should do well on the deep ball, but he’s just 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds which gives Hurns the two-inch and 15-pound advantage in contested situations. I’d consider Hurns a high-end WR4 this week who could surprise if he sees Jackson more than Bradberry. You should probably wait to play him in DFS (particularly cash) until we know exactly how the Cowboys plan to use him.

Terrance Williams: Here we go again… For whatever reason, the Cowboys are drawn to Williams because he can run-block. No, I’m not kidding. If they use Hurns in the X receiver role that Dez Bryant used to fill, that would mean Williams will be at his RWR post about 50 percent of the time, which is where LCB James Bradberry played almost 80 percent of his snaps. So not only is Allen Hurns more talented than Williams, but he might just have the better cornerback matchup. Williams is nothing more than a bench wide receiver who needs to score to be relevant. Since taking over as quarterback, just four of Dak Prescott‘s 45 touchdowns have gone to Williams, so why bet on him now?

Cole Beasley: I’m not proud of this, but Beasley might be a sneaky-play in PPR formats this week. He’s not a sexy option by any means, but if you go back to the time in 2016 when Dez Bryant was out, Beasley totaled 14 targets in those three games, putting up 13 receptions for 177 yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers have 30-year-old Captain Munnerlyn in the slot, who allowed a 79 percent catch-rate in his coverage last year. It wasn’t just last year, either, as he’s now allowed a 108.5 QB Rating in his coverage over the last two years combined. With Jason Witten and Bryant gone, the familiarity between Beasley and Prescott could equal fantasy points. I’m not going to say he’s a top-36 play or anything, but you can definitely do worse if you’re in a pinch for a flex-play in Week 1.

Devin Funchess: After seeing 111 targets out of necessity last year, Funchess is going to run into a bit more competition for those targets in 2018. Not only is Greg Olsen back at 100 percent, but they Panthers drafted wide receiver D.J. Moore in the first-round and they’ll be getting last year’s second-round pick Curtis Samuel back into the lineup as well. Oh, they also added Torrey Smith, though that’s just depth as far as we’re concerned. Funchess is still going to be the go-to red zone target, however, making him a fantasy relevant player by default. The Cowboys allowed 20 wide receiver touchdowns last year, which was the second-most in the NFL, though their cornerbacks were extremely young. They don’t have that true No. 1 cornerback that most teams covet, so Funchess will see a mixture of both Chidobe Awuzie and Byron Jones (who is moving from safety) this week. Awuzie (2017 second-round pick) was solid in a limited sample size from when he took over in Week 13, while Jones (2015 first-round pick) is taking his shot at cornerback after safety wasn’t the kindest to him. They’re both decent size, too, so there’s no clear advantage to Funchess here. Consider him a WR4 who is likely to disappoint without a touchdown, and that’s going to be how it is most weeks. I don’t see a need to use him in DFS this week.

D.J. Moore: As of now, it’s Torrey Smith who’s listed above Moore on the depth chart, which is somewhat significant because the Panthers aren’t likely to go into 3WR sets very often with the injuries they have on the offensive line. It’s a new offense, but the Panthers only went three-wide 47 percent of the time in 2017, which is concerning for Moore’s potential as the No. 3 option on the depth chart. He’d likely play out of the slot, which is a good thing knowing Anthony Brown is the Cowboys nickel cornerback. He allowed five touchdowns on just 75 targets in coverage last year. Still, it’s tough to recommend Moore who might play just half the snaps in Week 1. Consider him a punt-play in DFS tournaments, but not one who is even close to a sure thing.

Torrey Smith: He’s a starter and if he’s able to get open down the field, Cam Newton has the arm to get him the ball downfield. It’s all too similar to his situation last year with Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, making him a headache to predict. Did you ever feel it necessary to start him last year? I didn’t think so. He’s going to see Chidobe Awuzie in coverage the majority of time, a second-year cornerback who was inconsistent in his abbreviated rookie season. He did allow four touchdowns on just 29 targets but allowed a miniscule 5.8 yards per target in coverage. On go-routes, he was targeted three times where he allowed no catches and intercepted one. Every now and then he’ll catch a long touchdown, but Smith is just a guy at this point in his career and will likely be passed by D.J. Moore relatively soon.

TEs
Geoff Swaim: It appears as-if Swaim will be the starting tight end for the Cowboys, though they’ve said it’ll be a timeshare between him, Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz, and maybe even Rico Gathers. It’s clearly a situation to avoid for the first week or two, as you don’t want a tight end in your lineup who’s playing 30 percent of the snaps. Fortunately, the Panthers aren’t a defense you want to target with tight ends, as they allowed the fewest yards (585) to them last year. They did allow seven touchdowns, but as you all know, touchdowns are extremely hard to predict. Wait this one out and we’ll talk about the snap situation next week.

Greg Olsen: This is going to be interesting to see how the Panthers include both Olsen and Christian McCaffrey when they’re both at full health. I say that because I discovered a stat this offseason that essentially says both of them can’t be studs. Over the last two seasons, there hasn’t been a single tight end/running back duo to finish with more than 185 targets. Just to gauge, McCaffrey saw 113 targets last year, so even if we dial him back to 100, Olsen tops out around 85 targets? He’s caught just 61.5 percent of targets from Newton for his career, so we’re now talking about just 52 receptions for Olsen? Can’t be right, can it? Well, it’s safe to say that he’s not going to be in the 125-target range that he was before McCaffrey arrived. The Cowboys allowed just four tight ends to hit double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues last year (and they all scored), so maybe it’s best to give it a week and see how Norv Turner plans to divvy up the targets in the offense. In season-long, you likely don’t have that luxury if you drafted Olsen, but he’s not a great DFS target for me this week.

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 44.0
Line: ARI by 1.5

QBs
Alex Smith: It’s time to officially see what you’re made of, Mr. Smith. After most designated him with a game-manger tag, he crushed it last year with an MVP-caliber season. While he wasn’t asked to do much for the 49ers and Chiefs, who both had elite defenses up until last year, he’s going to need to lift his team in Washington. It’s very possible that Jay Gruden is a very underrated play-caller, as you think about the names who’ve come out of his system (Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay). If that’s the case, Smith may be able to showcase his talents once again, instilling confidence to fantasy owners. The Cardinals, however, are a team who isn’t lacking talent in the secondary, as they’re led by Patrick Peterson, Budda Baker, and Antoine Bethea. The pass-rush was a bit lesser than expected last year, as they sacked the quarterback just 6.16 percent of the time, which ranked 18th in the NFL. However, they have the talent with Chandler Jones, Markus Golden, and Robert Nkemdiche, if healthy, though Nkemdiche is questionable for this game. The lack of cornerback depth behind Peterson hurt them last year, though it’ll be interesting to see how they change under Steve Wilks. There’s a lot of moving parts in this game, which make it really unpredictable for fantasy. I’d prefer to stream someone like Andy Dalton over Smith in Week 1, because playing on the road in Arizona is never the easiest thing to do.

Sam Bradford: We now know for sure that Bradford is the Week 1 starter, as we kind of expected all along after they paid him $20 million in guaranteed money. The issue is that his offensive line is horrendous and looks even worse after center A.J. Shipley was placed on I.R. with a torn ACL. This means rookie third-round pick Mason Cole will start the season. The biggest issue with a bad offensive line is Bradford’s absolute zero mobility, as he won’t be able to escape even the least bit of pressure, so expect plenty of checkdowns. The Redskins have no cornerback depth behind Josh Norman, who doesn’t play the slot, which is where Bradford’s favorite target is. Even with Kendall Fuller on the roster last year (was included in the Alex Smith deal), Washington allowed seven top-12 performances through their first 13 games, though they shut down Blaine Gabbert, Brock Osweiler, and Eli Manning to close out the season. Bradford shouldn’t need to be used in standard 1QB leagues, but he makes for a solid one in 2QB formats. This game isn’t likely to be very high scoring, which means you don’t feel the need to have him in any tournament lineups.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: After being left for dead by the fantasy community, Peterson popped back up on the radar after Derrius Guice went down with a torn ACL. While most thought it would be a competition between him, Robert Kelley, and Samaje Perine, Jay Gruden said they planned on starting him right away. He didn’t disappoint in his lone preseason game totaling 56 yards on just 11 carries, looking like his old self. I’m not going to jump on Peterson and say that he’s back or anything, but he should have a bit more pep in his step over the first few weeks behind what might be the best offensive line of his career. The Cardinals are his “former team,” but there should be no ill-will, as Peterson filled a role while David Johnson was out with injury. The Cardinals have been extremely good against the run the last couple years, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry in 2017 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2016. They’ll be under Steve Wilks this year, so it’s a different defense, but the defense under Wilks in Carolina was great against the run as well. Because of that, Peterson is just a high volume RB3/flex-play in Week 1. Thompson is more of a wildcard, as he’s admitted that he’s not going to be 100 percent until November. While most NFL players are not 100 percent, Thompson is recovering from a broken leg, which is obviously a huge part of what limits what he can/cannot do. The fact that the Cardinals don’t have the most talent at cornerback, it’s unlikely that Thompson will need to be included heavily in the passing-game this week. Most forget that Thompson put up big numbers with Jordan Reed out and Jamison Crowder dinged-up throughout the beginning of the 2017 season. Thompson is a risk/reward RB3/4-option this week, but one I’d lean away from if I have another viable option on my roster, like James White.

David Johnson: Welcome back, D.J. It’s easy to forget how dominant he was prior to getting injured because we’re programmed to have recency bias in this game of fantasy. The Redskins attempted to solidify their defensive line this offseason by drafting Da’Ron Payne in the first-round and then Tim Settle in the fifth-round, giving them new-found depth at the tackle position. Payne is starting for them, but he’s a better pass-rusher than he is a run-stuffer. This plays into Johnson’s role, as his best attribute as a fantasy player is as a receiver. The linebacking corps of Ryan Kerrigan, Zach Brown, Mason Foster, and Preston Smith appears to be healthy heading into the season, which is something they haven’t had much of (health) recently. It’s likely why they allowed five different running backs to eclipse 100 rushing yards last year. In Johnson’s first game back, I’m expecting him to play well in what is still a plus-matchup. He’s a top-five play at the position, though we hope that Sam Bradford targets him as much as Carson Palmer did in order to show-off that ceiling we all know and love. He’s safe for cash games and obviously playable in tournaments.

WRs
Jamison Crowder: After missing much of the preseason with a groin injury, there’s got to be some concern with Crowder. He played through a hamstring injury at the start of last season and it showed in the box scores, as he totaled just 19 receptions for 149 yards in the first six games. He found himself on waiver wires in many leagues. It was a different story in the nine games after that, but is he healthy enough to not go through that funk again? Alex Smith is the perfect quarterback for his skill-set, as he’ll often find the man with the most separation, which tends to be slot receivers who are matched up with nickel cornerbacks. Smith threw into tight coverage (one or less yard of separation) just 12 percent of the time last year, which was the lowest in the NFL. We also have Jordan Reed coming back to the offense, which will impact Crowder’s target share over the middle of the field. It’s unknown what the Cardinals plan to do with their safety combo of Budda Baker, Antoine Bethea, and Tre Boston, but it seems they may give Baker a shot at covering the slot. It could also be Bene Benwikere, who was a former player for Steve Wilks on the Panthers. Whatever the case, Baker wasn’t great in coverage last year, though it could have been a scheme thing, but he’s definitely better against the run. Crowder is an iffy WR3/4-type play this week who I wouldn’t trust in DFS lineups until we see that he’s healthy.

Josh Doctson: We haven’t heard much about Doctson this offseason, which I suppose is a good thing after hearing about constant injuries the last few years. After closing out last season with a brutal schedule, he picks up right where he left off this year when he will match-up against Patrick Peterson the majority of time. There is a positive, however, as the Cardinals have said they won’t use Peterson in shadow coverage this year. If they stick him at LCB, which is where he was when not in shadow coverage last year, it means that he’d see Paul Richardson more than he’d see Doctson who only played on that side 37 percent of the time last year. That means the 6-foot-3 Doctson (who has a 41-inch vertical) would match-up with the 5-foot-11 Jamar Taylor, who has allowed a 111.4 QB Rating in his coverage throughout his five-year career. Doctson isn’t the safest play with a new quarterback, but his matchup isn’t as tough as most think (if the Cardinals stick to sides). Consider him a high-upside WR4 this week and one who could help contribute to a winning tournament lineup if all goes smoothly.

Paul Richardson: It was a weird landing spot for Richardson, as they apparently casted him for the DeSean Jackson field-stretching role in the offense, though I’m not sure that’s who he is. Sure, he ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, but he’s never been that guy in the NFL. He’s reportedly been struggling to gain separation throughout camp, which is never a good thing when playing with Alex Smith, as he’s the most risk adverse quarterback in the league. On top of that, Richardson is going to be matched-up with Patrick Peterson for much of the day, which is never a good thing. People can call Peterson overrated all they want, but he’s a top-three cornerback in the game. While shadowing legit No. 1 receivers last year, he allowed just a 46.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage, one of the best in the NFL. It hasn’t been an offseason that’s been too positive for Richardson, so make him prove it before trusting him in lineups, though you should take this matchup with a grain of salt because it’d be hard on anyone.

Larry Fitzgerald: Guess who’s back, back again… Larry’s back, tell a friend. Now 35 years old, Fitzgerald is aiming for a fourth-straight season with 1,000-plus yards, though he’ll be attempting that in a new offense. Most dubbed Bruce Arians as an offensive-mind, though nobody will say that about the combination of Steve Wilks/Mike McCoy. The Cardinals drafted Christian Kirk in the second-round this year, which was odd because he’s been a slot receiver throughout his college career, the position Fitzgerald has played the last few years. They’ve continually said that they’re going to start Kirk somehow, so I’m unsure what their plans are with Fitzgerald. Move him back to the perimeter? Or try and play Kirk on the outside? Why would they mess with what’s worked over the last few years? I’m expecting Fitzgerald to stay in the slot the majority of time, though he’ll move around more than in years past. If he stays in the slot, he should abuse Fabian Moreau, the Redskins nickel cornerback who played just 59 snaps as a rookie last year and didn’t look great. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but the veteran should get the best of him in his first start. With questions on how the Redskins are going to use their wide receivers, he comes with a tad more risk than usual, but I’m still playing him as a WR2 in a good matchup. I believe there are safer options in cash lineups, though he’s not a terrible option.

Christian Kirk: As mentioned in the Fitzgerald paragraph above this, Kirk has played the slot throughout his collegiate career, so when the Cardinals drafted him, it was widely accepted that he’d eventually be Fitzgerald’s replacement next year. The Cardinals have thrown a wrench in the plans and said he’ll be starting day one, though we don’t know where. If they try to start the 5-foot-11 rookie on the perimeter against Josh Norman, it won’t work, but why move Fitzgerald out of the slot where he’s dominated the last few years? It’s a slippery slope if you’re planning on playing Kirk, though I’m guessing you have alternatives to start the season. He’s probably best left on waivers right now.

J.J. Nelson: It’s an unknown situation on which wide receiver will start in three wide receiver sets, but Nelson appears to be the front-runner, as he’s least like Fitzgerald/Kirk, who are the possession-style receivers. Nelson makes sense as the one who would stretch the field, as his 17.1 yards per reception ranks sixth over the last two years. Oddly enough, the recently-cut Brice Butler was at No. 5 on the list. Nelson will see a mix of Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar, though it’s unlikely Sam Bradford will have time to stretch the field. Still, Nelson is an intriguing tournament option if he’s an every-down player. Ideally, you wait a week to plug him in just to be sure.

TEs
Jordan Reed: When he’s on the field, you absolutely must consider him, especially when the word out of Washington is that he looks as good as he has in a long time. After dealing with foot injuries last year, Reed has ramped up his workload appears to be ready. Fun fact about Reed: Since 2011, there’ve been just five tight ends who’ve turned in TE1 performances more than half the time. Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, and Reed. That’s elite territory. Going against the Cardinals was brutal on tight ends in 2016, as they allowed just 3.5 fantasy points per game to them, but the tides turned in 2017 as they allowed 6.8 points per game, which ranked 19th. If the Cardinals try to bring Budda Baker down to cover him, it’ll be a mismatch as Reed would have over a four-inch reach on him. You’ll have to pay attention to his status, but this personnel group allowed four different tight ends to rack up 15 or more PPR points last year. If he’s starting, I’m playing him as a solid TE1 in season-long and playing him in DFS due to his low salary. If Reed were to sit for whatever reason, I’d be interested in Vernon Davis as a streaming option, as he and Alex Smith have a great history together.

Ricky Seals-Jones: With Jermaine Gresham coming off the PUP list on Monday, it’s unlikely that he’s ready to play in Week 1. Even if active, the Cardinals have said that Seals-Jones is going to have the bigger role going forward, particularly in the passing game. The issue I have with this statement is that David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk all operate primarily over the middle of the field, which happens to be the area tight ends usually work. It’s also the reason there’s been no running back/tight end duo to total more than 185 targets over the last two years. The Redskins had D.J. Swearinger doing most tight end coverage last year and although he allowed four touchdowns in his coverage, he allowed just 0.78 yards per route covered, which was one of the lowest marks in the NFL. It’s best to see how much of a target share he has before trusting him in lineups, because I’m not expecting as much as some.