Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Total: 41.0
Line: PHI by 3.5
QBs
Carson Wentz: It was good to see Wentz back on the field whipping balls around the field, though it was a game that had rain throughout, limiting the potential upside. Even more concerning, however, is the lack of weapons he has to throw to, as Jordan Matthews likely isn’t all he needs. I’ve been saying that Dez Bryant would work well with his willingness to throw into tight windows, so pay attention to him. The Titans secondary is solid, though they’ve definitely had a few hiccups on deep balls with both Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson. They also may be without Adoree Jackson this week, as he suffered a concussion in their Week 3 contest. If he’s out, it would give the entire Eagles passing-game a boost. The Titans did hold Blake Bortles in check last week, but they did the same thing to him last year in both games. The Titans are under new coaching, so it’s possible that they’re just taking a while to adapt to the new system under Mike Vrabel, but the concern for Wentz is the lack of volume due to gamescript. This figures to be a low-scoring game, so considering his lack of weapons, Wentz remains in the high-end QB2 territory.
Marcus Mariota: You really don’t need me to tell you to stay away from Mariota right now, right? Knowing that he’s lacking feeling in parts of his arm/elbow should be enough to keep him out of lineups, especially when they’re projected to score just 19.3 points in this game. He used his legs last week, which is something to expect more of, though that’s not the way to beat the Eagles. They have a strong front-seven but very mediocre secondary. They held Andrew Luck in check last week, though that game was filled with rain and he was missing his go-to target in Jack Doyle. Wait until Mariota shows you he can contribute before trusting him.
RBs
Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement, and Wendell Smallwood: It seemed like both Ajayi and Darren Sproles were set to return to the lineup this week, but we now know that Sproles is out and Ajayi is dealing with a back fracture. The combination of Clement, Smallwood, and Josh Adams filled in admirably in Week 3, totaling 142 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries. Needless to say, it was a timeshare. With Ajayi not guaranteed to be 100 percent, he’s definitely not escaping a timeshare this week, though the matchup isn’t as bad as it’s been in years past. The Titans have been a top-five run-defense for the last two years, but under Mike Vrabel, they’ve allowed 273 rushing yards through three weeks, though they’ve still yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. Part of the lack of overall production is because the Titans milk the clock, as their opponents have averaged just 58.7 plays per game, the sixth-lowest in the NFL. If there’s fewer snaps, it means there’s even less of a timeshare to divide up. Because of that, Ajayi is just a high-end RB3, while Clement and Smallwood are just desperation RB4/5 types.
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: It hasn’t been great under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, as he hasn’t quite brought that Sean McVay magic to Tennessee. Henry and Lewis have combined for just 282 yards and one touchdown on 85 carries (3.32 yards per carry) through the first three games, not quite the rushing attack they’d hoped. Their offensive line has been a bit banged-up, but the offense just isn’t clicking right now. Henry has seen eight or more defenders in the box on 37 percent of his carries, which is in the top-10 among running backs, so they’re going to need to disguise the offense a bit more with him on the field if they want him to succeed. Against the Eagles, they aren’t likely to find that success, as there hasn’t been a single running back who’s rushed for more than 36 yards against them this year. Read that last sentence again. Henry is just a weak RB4 in this matchup and not an appealing one, while Lewis is at least used in the passing-game where the Eagles have allowed 15 receptions for 96 yards over the first three weeks. Still, he’s an uninspiring high-end RB4.
WRs
Nelson Agholor: We were really concerned when we heard that Matthews was re-signed because he’s familiar with the slot position in Doug Pederson’s offense. Fortunately for Agholor, it seems Pederson knows where Agholor’s success came from. Agholor played in the slot on 71 percent of his routes, which was a season-high in Week 3, so he’s set in his role. The Titans weak point in the secondary is the slot, as they have Logan Ryan there, though they may be asking him to do more if Adoree Jackson is out with a concussion. I’m expecting LeShaun Sims to step in and replace Jackson, but it’d be an upgrade either way you look at it. Ryan has seen seven targets in his coverage the last three weeks, allowing all seven to be caught for 80 yards. Since coming to the Titans, he’s allowed a 105.2 QB Rating in his coverage, so it’s safe to say that you shouldn’t ignore Agholor this week, who should be considered a low-end WR2 with Alshon Jeffery still out.
Jordan Matthews: We knew that Matthews would play in Week 4, but we didn’t know how much. The final tally of snaps among wide receivers was: Agholor 80, Kamar Aiken 45, Matthews 33. He’s also playing on the perimeter, which is not where he’s had any success throughout his career. I’m expecting him and Agholor to somewhat platoon out of the slot, but Agholor ran 71 percent of his routes from there while Matthews was there just 32 percent of the time. Until we see his snaps (and particularly slot snaps) come up, it’s going to be hard to trust him as anything more than a WR6 who has some past chemistry with Wentz.
Corey Davis: The only Titans wide receiver worth even thinking about right now is Davis, though his owners aren’t very happy right now. To be fair, he’s played against two of the game’s best cornerback through three games, so you don’t want to draw any conclusions. The issue is the quarterback situation, as we need Mariota to at least put the ball in his vicinity. Outside of his matchup with Jalen Ramsey, Davis saw 20 targets in two games, which is one of the appealing factors here. Knowing that the Eagles haven’t allowed a running back to rush for more than 36 yards, the Titans have to move the ball some way, right? Davis is eighth in target share among wide receivers and is sixth in air yards. The production will come, and it might start this week against the Eagles, who have allowed six wide receivers hit double-digit PPR games through three games, including two 120-plus yard games. Davis is most definitely on the WR3 radar this week and a better play than most want to admit.
TEs
Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert: Take a look at the list of tight ends the Titans have played in their last eight games: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Ryan Griffin, A.J. Derby, Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Higbee, Garrett Celek, Jermaine Gresham, and Stephen Anderson. Now tell me that their stats against tight ends matter. They’re No. 1 against tight ends this year, but it’s easy to understand why. The last real tight end they played was Jack Doyle when he caught 7-of-8 targets for 94 yards. Ertz and Goedert are the focal point of this passing game with no primary outside wide receivers. Ertz ran 42 routes last week while Goedert ran 27 routes (just 15 routes the first two weeks). The Titans will have Kenny Vaccaro try to come down and cover them, but he’s someone who was the weak point in the Saints defense last year. He wasn’t supposed to start for the Titans but was forced to after a season-ending injury to Johnathan Cyprien. You aren’t ever sitting Ertz, but it’s very possible that Goedert becomes a weekly streamer. I’d consider streaming him this week while Jeffery remains out.
Jonnu Smith: Now two games into the Smith experiment, he’s totaled just two targets, hauling in one for nine yards. He’s not ready to play a feature role, but more importantly, Mariota isn’t producing enough to support multiple pass-catchers. Outside of a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown to O.J. Howard in Week 2, the Eagles have been pretty solid against tight ends, as they held Austin Hooper and Eric Ebron to a combined 57 yards on 15 targets.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
Total: 45.0
Line: OAK by 3.0
QBs
Baker Mayfield: Whew, what a debut by Mayfield last Thursday night. He completed 17-of-23 pass attempts against the Jets, but when you factor in the three drops and one throw-away, he completed 20-of-22 attempts. His preciseness was on full display, though he didn’t show-off his mobility that he absolutely has. There’s going to be mistakes he makes, as he’s always been able to throw into tight windows, though those windows close much quicker in the NFL. The Raiders have just one interception through three weeks, so it’s not as if they’re one where the windows close that fast. They’re coming off a game in which they allowed 289 yards and three touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill, as there was blown coverage all over the place. This game will be on the road in the hostile Oakland environment which cannot be overlooked, but playing for Oklahoma, that happened to him in plenty of college stadiums. It’s risky for sure, but Mayfield should be on the streaming radar this week as someone who I expect to finish with a top-15 performance.
Derek Carr: Here we go again, on the rollercoaster of emotion with Carr. After completing 29-of-32 passes against the Broncos, he went back to bad Carr against the Dolphins, though his final stat-line didn’t look terrible. There were 66 of his yards came from a defensive mishap that left Jordy Nelson uncovered. The Dolphins were also without stud safety Reshad Jones, so it was just a terrible game for Carr and the Raiders offense. Against the Browns, it’s going to be interesting because they’ve relied on pressure from their pass-rush to hide the deficiencies in their secondary, but Carr has only been sacked five times through three games, with two of them coming against the Rams and Broncos. Over his career, Carr has averaged nearly 20 more yards and 0.4 more touchdowns while at home, so there’s reason for hope. But knowing that the Browns have played against Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, yet have allowed just three passing touchdowns on the year isn’t promising. Consider Carr a risky QB2 who can beat this secondary if he’s on his game.
RBs
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: I’ve heard a lot of people talking about how Nick Chubb needs a bigger role and I think to myself… why? He’s looked pretty sluggish while out there and let’s not pretend that Tyrod Taylor was making life easy on Hyde. It was good to see Hyde post 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets last week, as they aren’t a walk-over defense that can be beat by just anyone. The Raiders allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their first two games (Todd Gurley, Phillip Lindsay), but shut down the 11 carries that the Dolphins threw at them in Week 3. The Browns aren’t going to shoulder everything on Mayfield in his first road start, so look for plenty of volume for Hyde once again here. The Raiders front-seven has five new members on it, so there’s bound to be plenty of miscommunication between them for the first half of the season. Hyde needs to be in lineups as an RB2, while Johnson has remained useless in fantasy football. He’s going to be more useful when they’re in a shootout, but it’s unlikely that this game has those fireworks. It’s hard to recommend him as anything more than a RB4/5 option with just 15 total touches on the season.
Marshawn Lynch: If there’s one player who’s shown up each and every week for the Raiders, it’s Lynch. He’s now scored in three straight games and has also chipped in with at least two receptions in every game. The Browns run defense was really good last year, though they’ve had some hiccups in 2018, as they’ve now allowed four rushing touchdowns, including two to Isaiah Crowell last week. We also saw fellow bruiser James Connor truck his way to 135 yards and two touchdowns, even though it was a messy game that week. Knowing Lynch is at home and a favorite this week, it’s hard not to lock him in for at least one score this week. Unless you believe the Browns run away with this game, Lynch should be on the high-end RB2 radar, though his lack of playing time in losing games does affect his ability to be used in cash games.
WRs
Jarvis Landry: There’s likely no one happier than Landry about the switch to Mayfield, as Landry has been able to haul in almost everything to come his way this year, though he was caught off guard by a beautifully thrown deep ball against the Jets that went off his hands. With Landry’s ability to separate, he’ll become a quick favorite of Mayfield, and the Raiders don’t have a cornerback who’s on the same level as him. We saw slot-heavy wide receivers excel in this matchup, as they’ve allowed Cooper Kupp, Emmanuel Sanders, and Albert Wilson/Jakeem Grant post great fantasy days. Landry needs to be in lineups as a WR2 who might start producing like a WR1 with Mayfield.
Antonio Callaway: It wasn’t a great game for Callaway last week, as his route-running allowed him to get free of Morris Claiborne in coverage, but he couldn’t do anything with it, including dropping a dime that Mayfield dropped over Claiborne’s head. He’s going to be much more predictable with Mayfield under center, though he’s still the third option at best behind Landry and Njoku. His matchup against Rashaan Melvin isn’t a good one, though he’ll also see some of Gareon Conley as well. They’ve been much better than most expected and have still yet to allow a receiver hit the 100-yard mark. In fact, they held the Rams and Broncos wide receivers to less than 300 yards combined. Callaway is on the right track, but it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a WR5.
Rashard Higgins: It was Higgins who got the demotion with the promotion to Callaway, but don’t forget about Higgins who plays the slot when Landry doesn’t. He only ran eight fewer routes than Callaway, though everyone is assuming Callaway is the only one who benefits from Mayfield’s presence. He’s not someone you have to play this week, but you should absolutely monitor his usage, because he could be considered a high-priority waiver add next week.
Amari Cooper: You were warned last week that Cooper was not to be fully trusted because of one week where he was targeted 10 times and here we are… The Dolphins used Xavien Howard to shadow him in coverage and it led to just five targets for the talented wide receiver. Howard is good, but there’s still never a game where Cooper should see fewer than eight targets with the wide receiver corps they field every week. The Browns haven’t been using Denzel Ward in shadow coverage just yet, but he’s still the one Cooper will see most of the game. On 21 targets in coverage, he’s allowed just 130 yards, though two catches have been for touchdowns. While those touchdowns were to Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown, that’s who he’s got to defend as their top guy. Cooper is that guy for the Raiders, though his quarterback doesn’t know it. Consider Cooper a risk/reward WR3 this week who’ll likely bounce-back, but then again, that’s assuming competent quarterback play.
Jordy Nelson: After being targeted four times in each of the first two games, Nelson shot up to eight targets in Week 3 and for good cause. It seemed like the Dolphins said, “we’ll let Nelson beat us,” and even chose not to cover him on a 66-yard reception where he was caught from behind by a linebacker. While it was a step in the right direction, it’s hard to trust the No. 2 option in the offense when the No. 1 option doesn’t even get consistent targets. They increased Nelson’s slot usage last week where he ran 53 percent of his routes in the slot, which could be a really good thing for him going forward. On five targets in the slot, he’s produced four catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. The matchup against T.J. Carrie (the former Raider) in the slot isn’t a bad one, either. Nelson could turn into a possession slot receiver for this team, so he’s on the radar as a WR4/5, but he’s far from a sure thing.
Martavis Bryant: Since coming back with the team in Week 2, Bryant has nine targets in two games, so he’s definitely involved. His matchup will be against Terrance Mitchell the majority of time, a cast-off by the cornerback-needy Chiefs this offseason. He hasn’t been bad in coverage through three weeks, though he had stints where he looked decent in Kansas City as well, but came to a crashing halt. He’s one of the slowest cornerbacks in the league, as he ran a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, while Bryant is one of the fastest players in the NFL. This should be a matchup the Raiders exploit, though this coaching staff hasn’t done many things right to this point. Bryant makes for a boom/bust WR5 in season-long leagues if you’re looking for some upside, but makes for a better tournament play in DFS.
TEs
David Njoku: One of the players who should see a big rise in production under Mayfield is Njoku, as Mayfield made his living off throws to Mark Andrews at Oklahoma. He loves the big, athletic tight ends who give him a bigger target to throw to. Most will look at the 69 yards on the season and think he’s not worth a pickup, but I’d argue that he’s a top-eight tight end going forward. The Raiders were the team who allowed the most yardage to tight ends last year (1,038 yards), and though they’ve been competent through three games, they’ve played against Tyler Higbee, Jake Butt, and A.J. Derby. Their safety duo of Reggie Nelson and Marcus Gilchrist is one of the weakest in the NFL, and the two have already allowed two touchdowns in their coverage this year. Gilchrist is the one they primarily use in coverage and he’s just 5-foot-10 against the 6-foot-4 Njoku. He should be played as a low-end TE1 this week who has plenty of upside.
Jared Cook: Are we back down to earth yet? Cook should’ve been able to post TE1 numbers in each of the last two games, but we’ve seen a steady decline in production since Week 1. With Nelson playing more slot, it’s likely that Cook starts losing more targets to him than he did to the underwhelming Seth Roberts. The Browns have done a great job keeping tight ends in check this year, though the competition has been relatively weak to this point. Between Jesse James, Ben Watson (who should’ve had a touchdown, but Brees overthrew him), and Eric Tomlinson, there’s not a whole lot of worry there. Cook isn’t elite himself, making him a shaky play. While we used to be able to stream any tight end we wanted against the Browns, it seems those days may be gone. Cook is still a high-end TE2 due to the number of targets he’s seen (22), but he’s lacking consistency.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38.5
Line: SEA by 3.0
QBs
Russell Wilson: It’s been a rough start to the season for Wilson, who sits as the QB16 after three games. Part of his struggles could come from the fact that he played the Broncos and the Bears in the first two weeks, while without his best receiver, but the biggest issue to me is that he’s not using his legs to move the ball. He has just 21 rushing yards on the season, which is behind guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Matt Ryan. If this is a product of Brian Schottenheimer, he should be fired on the spot. Going into Arizona, you have to wonder if much changes as they’ve held Alex Smith to 14 yards on the ground, and Mitch Trubisky to just 8 yards on the ground. They play a zone defense where they’ve obviously used some sort of spy to hold those quarterbacks in check. His wide receivers are veteran enough where they should know where to sit down in the zone, making Wilson a solid floor play this week, though he’s lacking the upside we’d hoped he’d have this year. He’s just a high-end QB2 until further notice.
Josh Rosen: After shoving him into the game with five minutes left against the insane pass-rush of the Bears, Steve Wilks essentially set Rosen up to fail in his first game. Rosen didn’t seem to mind all that much on the sideline, though. He’s now been named the starter against the Seahawks, which is not as easy of a task that everyone thought. Through three weeks, they’ve now sacked the quarterback eight times and have intercepted seven passes, which leads the NFL. With the Cardinals offensive line struggling to block anyone, this is another tough spot for the rookie. He’s got limited weapons and the Seahawks have held young quarterbacks (Trubisky, Prescott) to just 5.4 yards per attempt the last two weeks. Rosen should be left on benches for this matchup.
RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: While watching a little bit of every game on Sunday, I didn’t realize that Carson got up to 32 carries until Dan Harris brought it up to me on the Sunday night podcast (if you’ve missed that, it’s such a great listen for your Monday commute). After the Monday night debacle against the Bears where he saw fewer touches than Penny, it’s nice to see a clear-cut starter workload. He also scored just the second rushing touchdown by a Seahawks running back in their last 19 games. The Cardinals run defense hasn’t been great under Steve Wilks, allowing 370 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns through three weeks. They’ve had tough competition in all three games, but it’s clear that the new scheme they’re running can be exposed on the ground. It’s tough to fully trust Carson after just one game, but it was such a drastic difference that it seems here to stay. He should be considered a low-end RB2 who comes with some risk, though who doesn’t in that range? Penny is strictly a last-ditch effort option who may be relegated to 5-8 touches per week, which puts him in RB5 territory.
David Johnson: It’s tough to say that Week 3 was a step in the right direction for Johnson, as he totaled just 16 combined carries/targets in what was a very close game throughout. The fact that he’s seen just six targets the last two weeks is the most dumbfounding thing, especially when you consider their lack of true threats at wide receiver. While Ezekiel Elliott had a good game against them last week, Johnson doesn’t have the luxury of a good offensive line, and it’s the reason he’s averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the year. If Rosen doesn’t target him in the passing-game, it’s not going to be pretty for him. The Seahawks aren’t as stiff as they once were, but with Bobby Wagner a bit healthier and K.J. Wright potentially coming back this week, Johnson is just an RB2 who needs to score to even sniff RB1 territory.
WRs
Tyler Lockett: Similar to Chris Godwin, Lockett has salvaged his fantasy days with a touchdown in each of the three games. If you were to remove them, his 196 yards would rank 28th among receivers. Lockett has scored more than anyone him expected to, but I’m still screaming regression for a guy who scored nine touchdowns in his first three seasons. With Baldwin back in the lineup, it hurts Lockett more than anyone, as he was running the majority of snaps in the slot, which created mismatches for defenses. He’ll now see a lot of Patrick Peterson in coverage, which is bad for many reasons. He’ll likely see some Jamar Taylor as well, but downgrade Lockett to WR4 territory.
Doug Baldwin: We found out on Friday that Baldwin will play against the Cardinals this week. While there’s always risk to playing someone coming off a multi-week injury, but the fact that he’s practiced this week added in with the “will play” designation on Friday says that there’s little doubt. Still, it’s a soft tissue injury so play at your own risk. The matchup is a great one, as he’ll match-up with Budda Baker, the converted safety trying to play cornerback, and it hasn’t worked. He’s been terrible in coverage, allowing 15-of-17 targets to be completed for 134 yards. If Baldwin is in fact healthy, this should net a top-36 performance.
Brandon Marshall: Most don’t realize that Marshall actually leads the Seahawks in targets (18) through three weeks, though Lockett is right on his heels. Of course it hasn’t turned into fantasy production the way we’d like, but opportunity is the first step to fantasy success. He could have a bigger week against the Cardinals, though, as he’ll see Jamar Taylor in coverage the majority of the day. Taylor has allowed 235 yards in his coverage through three weeks (4th-most in NFL), though he’s yet to allow a touchdown. He’ll struggle with the 6-foot-4 Marshall who should be able to eat up zone coverage. If you were looking for a week to potentially use Marshall, here it is. He’s nothing more than a WR4 due to his lack of production thus far, but the matchup says he should live up to that ranking.
Larry Fitzgerald: After seeing Fitzgerald finish with just two targets against the Bears, most assumed his hamstring acted up and he was forced out of the game. Nope, he played 48-of-50 snaps last week. It’s just a simple case of terrible coaching where they really don’t understand the personnel they have on the field. With Rosen under center, we don’t know who he’ll favor in the passing-game, but his target distribution in relief last week was: Christian Kirk 3, Chad Williams 2, Jermaine Gresham 1, David Johnson 1. The lone time he went to target Fitzgerald, he was intercepted for a pick-six, though it was called back for offsides. Fitzgerald may not be 100 percent from his hamstring injury and was out there as a decoy. Whatever the case, it’s hard to trust him as anything more than a WR3 against a Seahawks defense that’s looked much better than expected. He’ll see Justin Coleman in the slot, who has only seen four targets in coverage, but he’s allowed just 28 yards on them. If his name wasn’t Larry Fitzgerald, he’d be a sit this week.
Christian Kirk: As mentioned in the Fitzgerald paragraph, Kirk saw three of Rosen’s seven targets in Week 3, though he was also the wide receiver who was targeted when Rosen was intercepted. The two roomed together this offseason, so it’s possible that there’s a bond there that’s not with Fitzgerald. The Cardinals have used Kirk on the perimeter for 60 percent of his routes, so he’ll see a lot of Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers in coverage, though Flowers is the one he should see most. He missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury but returned in Week 3. He’s a converted safety who has allowed 11-of-18 targets to be completed for 182 yards and a touchdown. Remember, that’s just two weeks worth of production. It’s risky for sure, but it’s possible that Kirk is the best wide receiver to play on the Cardinals this week. He’s hard to trust as more than a WR4/5 option, but he’s got the best matchup.
TEs
Will Dissly/Nick Vannett: It appears that Dissly isn’t the go-to option after all, though I’m not confident Vannett is the must-play one, either. It’s a timeshare between the two, though it was Vannett who ran three more pass routes in Week 3 and had a 5-1 target advantage. Vannett has now seen five targets in back-to-back weeks, though the results haven’t quite been there. The Cardinals have been the definition of average against tight ends this year, allowing Jordan Reed 4/48/1 and Trey Burton 4/55/0. They have had veteran Antoine Bethea and Tre Boston mixing it up in coverage, and they’ve played competently. It’s definitely a situation to wait to develop, as there should be a clear-cut leader before long.
Ricky Seals-Jones: Now with Jermaine Gresham back in the lineup, Seals-Jones is likely to lose a few targets here and there. His snaps decreased just a small amount last week, though he’s still out there for a majority of the plays. He did have a season-high 35 yards and a touchdown against the Bears last week, but the bad news is that it came on one play where they legitimately left him uncovered. With Rosen coming in, the Cardinals may decide to give Gresham more snaps as he’s a better blocker than Seals-Jones. We also have to keep in mind that Seals-Jones legitimately has more routes run than he does yards (90 snaps, 71 yards), which is not great, Bob. Avoid him wherever possible until we’re given a reason not to.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Total: 50.0
Line: NO by 3.5
QBs
Drew Brees: While there was little doubt in my mind that Brees would bounce back in fantasy this year, even I didn’t expect 129 pass attempts in the first three weeks. If most knew that, he would’ve been drafted as a top-three quarterback. The subtraction of Mark Ingram has increased the passing volume by quite a bit, as Brees is currently on pace for 688 pass attempts. His defense has made this possible, as they continually allow their opponents light up scoreboards. The over/under for this game suggests we should think that’ll be the case again, though are the Giants able to keep pace? Their offense has averaged just 18.3 points per game this year, which is the biggest concern for this game. Most remember the Saints/Giants game from 2015 where Brees threw for a record seven touchdowns, but that was at home. The last time he played them in New York was in 2016 when he threw for just 263 yards and one touchdown. It’s fair to say things have changed since then, though Brees traditionally plays much better at home. It’s really hard to dislike him when Deshaun Watson hung 385 yards and two touchdowns on them last week, but I won’t say he’s my lock of the week like I did last week. He’s still a must-play QB1 who lacks a run-game, meaning his floor is intact.
Eli Manning: It was a great gameplan by the Giants last week, as Manning got the ball out of his hands faster than any other quarterback in Week 3, which was different from the first few games. In Week 1 it was 2.57 seconds from snap to throw, then 2.67 seconds in Week 2, but they got that number all the way down to 2.34 seconds in Week 3. The Saints secondary has been miserable and now must deal with Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. They also just lost their starting slot cornerback Patrick Robinson for the season, which is really going to hurt as he was the only one playing well. Manning is the type of player you want to catch during his hot streaks, though it’s impossible to say that this is one of them after just one good game, though he did complete 25-of-29 passes. Manning is definitely on the streaming radar considering how good the Saints run defense has been and how bad their pass defense has been (allowed 10 passing touchdowns through three games), but he should be a favorite for those who play in tournaments.
RBs
Alvin Kamara: We knew that Kamara would see more work with Mark Ingram out of the lineup, but if you were to say that he’d have just 37 carries through three weeks and be the RB2 in standard leagues, I’d call your bluff. He’s the No. 1 running back in PPR and has more targets than just three wide receivers, and more receptions than just two of them. His 20 targets in Week 3 were a record for running backs and it’s hard to see him falling off at all with that type of volume. The Giants have been extremely solid against the run thus far, allowing just 196 yards on 55 carries (3.56 yards per carry) to the combination of Jaguars, Cowboys, and Texans running backs, which is stiff competition. They’ve allowed 17 receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns through the air to running backs, though, which is where Kamara makes his money. You’re playing him as an RB1 and you aren’t thinking twice about it. He’s likely too expensive for DFS cash lineups, but you don’t want to go without exposure in tournaments.
Saquon Barkley: It seems as if Barkley is going to get it done one way or another every week, as he’s now totaled at least 108 total yards in every game. The fact that he’s gamescript-proof makes him immune to tough matchups on the ground, like this one with the Saints. They’ve held opposing backs to just 163 rushing yards on 60 attempts (2.72 yards per carry) to start the year, and that’s despite their lackluster secondary. While the first game of the year was against the Bucs whose run-game is non-existent, they had to do some work against both Carlos Hyde and Tevin Coleman, who were held to 50 and 51 total yards in their matchups. The Saints have also allowed just nine receptions to running backs through three games, but I believe that’s attributed more to how bad their cornerbacks have been. Barkley is an RB1 every week and might see more work in the passing-game with Evan Engram out.
WRs
Michael Thomas: This seems like a misprint, but Thomas has now caught 38-of-40 passes thrown at him. Seriously, I cannot describe how ridiculous that is. We haven’t even talked about his 398 yards and three touchdowns, which have him up there as the No. 1 receiver in both standard and PPR leagues. The Giants have used Janoris Jenkins in a shadow cornerback role this year, though he hasn’t been quite the same since his ankle surgery last year. He’s now allowed 14 catches for 215 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets in coverage, which is good for a 101.0 QB Rating. Even better for Thomas, though, is that he doesn’t travel into the slot, which is where Thomas has run over 30 percent of his routes. The Giants typically have B.W. Webb there, but with Eli Apple out last week, they were forced to use Donte Deayon, who proceeded to allow three catches for 50 yards on just four targets in coverage. Thomas is a WR1 and one that should be played wherever possible. If you were to host a draft today, he’d be a top-five pick.
Ted Ginn: It seems that Ginn’s role is going to shrink here soon, as both Cameron Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith are sneaking up there in pass routes. Ginn has still seen 6.3 targets per game, so we don’t want to overreact, but it’s better to be out too early than too soon. Had it not been for his touchdown last week, owners would have likely dropped him. He’s going to see Eli Apple if he’s active for this game (missed Week 3), a younger cornerback who had been playing better after having massive struggles for his first two years in the league. We’ll have to monitor his status, as B.W. Webb would be a much better matchup for him. It seems like Apple is expected back, making Ginn a mediocre WR5.
Cameron Meredith: It was good to see Meredith suit up last week, though you shouldn’t get too excited just yet. He played 34 snaps, while rookie Tre’Quan Smith played 26, and Ginn played 51. The Saints may not run nearly as many 4WR sets when Mark Ingram returns next week, so it’s possible that Smith and Meredith are playing for the same spot in the lineup. Knowing that Meredith had the edge and caught a touchdown, he’s the one you should lean towards in this matchup. The Giants haven’t allowed a big game to a slot receiver up to this point, but they also haven’t played a “big” slot receiver. Typically, it’s B.W. Webb, though he needed to fill in at LCB last week with Eli Apple out of the lineup. Webb has allowed 10 touchdowns in his coverage over his three-year career on just 120 targets in coverage, so if you’re looking for lightning to strike twice in a row, Meredith isn’t the worst WR4/5 dart throw.
Odell Beckham Jr: The Giants executed a perfect gameplan last week, though Beckham has still yet to score a touchdown. He joins Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry as the only receivers with at least 270 yards and no score. It’ll come soon enough for Beckham, and it very well could be this week against a struggling Saints secondary. They’ll have Marshon Lattimore on him, and while that would’ve been considered a problem last year, Lattimore hasn’t been the same in his sophomore season, allowing 10 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets in coverage. The reason you have to love Beckham is because there’s no help provided for Lattimore, as he’s trusted one-on-one. We saw Beckham eat up Jalen Ramsey in Week 1 for 11 catches and 111 yards, so you shouldn’t be too concerned with Beckham this week. He’s a WR1 who makes for a great tournament play. He may seem appealing for cash, but knowing Lattimore has shutdown ability, you don’t need to go there.
Sterling Shepard: He’s now seen seven targets in two of their three games, making him a much better option than fantasy owners give him credit for. He’s not going to be recommended when Manning is in a funk, but hopefully he snapped out of it with his great performance in Week 3. The Saints just lost their starting slot cornerback Patrick Robinson for the year, so Shepard may wind up matching up with a cornerback they sign off the street this week. Either that, or they trust one of Ken Crawley or P.J. Williams, which ended really bad for them last week, as the duo allowed three touchdowns to Calvin Ridley. On the season, the duo of Crawley/Williams has allowed a perfect 158.3 QB Rating in their coverage, so the Giants really want to attack them whenever possible. Shepard should be considered an upside WR3 in this game.
TEs
Ben Watson: We’ve now seen Watson’s targets rise each week, topping out at six last week, which resulted in season-highs in both receptions (5) and yards (71), though he’s still yet to score a touchdown. The Giants were notorious for allowing big games to tight ends last year, as there were a massive 13 touchdowns allowed to them. By comparison, there was no other team who allowed more than 10 touchdowns to the position. They haven’t allowed one yet in 2018, but they’ve also had what may be the lightest tight end schedule between Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Geoff Swaim, and Ryan Griffin. With no Mark Ingram on the field in the red zone, it’s likely that Watson scores his first touchdown this week, making him a low-end TE1 streamer.
Rhett Ellison: In case you haven’t heard, Evan Engram is going to miss a few weeks with a sprained MCL that he suffered early in Week 3. Ellison was the one who stepped into his role against the Texans, catching all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. Going back to last year, the Saints weren’t a defense to target with tight ends (second-lowest points allowed), and it appears they aren’t once again this year, as they’ve held the combination of O.J. Howard, David Njoku, and Austin Hooper to just nine catches for 97 scoreless yards. Manning has always liked his tight ends, but the matchup and Ellison’s limited skill-set make me feel like you can do better. He’s not terrible for those desperate, but he’s not great, either.
