Worst Dynasty Value on All 32 Teams (2020 Fantasy Football)
We’re at the point of the offseason where ADP (Average Draft Position) is starting to take shape, as we know where the rookies have landed, whether the biggest free agents have stayed or moved on to another team, and which team has which coach(es).
This also happens to be my favorite time of the year in dynasty, as it’s the time to make trades based on perceived value. In case you missed it, we did an article on the best value trade targets from all 32 teams earlier this week. You can find that article right here.
Today, we’ll be looking at the players whose values are too high. These are the players you may want to investigate trading away before their value takes a fall. It’s not to say they’ll disappear, but they’re likely never going to get a better return than they do right now. This is the time where foreshadowing can pay off in a big way. Let’s take a look at May startup data from our friends at DLF to determine which players are being overvalued.
Chase Edmonds (RB) Overall ADP: 188, Positional ADP: RB60
He’s still being viewed as the backup to Kenyan Drake, though I’m not convinced he’s better than Eno Benjamin, who the Cardinals stole late in this year’s NFL Draft. Outside of one game against the Giants – where David Johnson left with an injury – Edmonds didn’t have a single game with more than eight carries. They don’t view him as an every-down back. Ship him off for someone like Latavius Murray, who’s somehow going 14 picks later (on average).
Ito Smith (RB) Overall ADP: 235, Positional ADP: RB80
Oddly enough, the Falcons don’t have many overvalued players, and putting Smith here makes me feel bad because he’s not likely rostered in some leagues, but his current draft position in startups is ahead of some guys like Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Collin Johnson, and Jakobi Meyers. I’d much rather take a shot on one of those guys. Smith is waiver wire fodder.
JK Dobbins (RB) Overall ADP: 18, Positional ADP: RB12
Let me start by saying that Dobbins is going to require some patience. The most valuable years in a rookie’s career are those on his rookie contract, as that’s the time a team will use and abuse them. The downside for Dobbins is that he has Mark Ingram on the roster for at least one year (maybe two), and we can’t pretend like Lamar Jackson isn’t a threat to his goal-line work. If last year’s offense was any indication of what the Ravens plan on doing, it’s having a two- or three-way timeshare. Did you know Ingram tallied more than 16 carries just one time last season? None of that sounds worthy of a top-20 overall pick in startup drafts.
Zack Moss (RB) Overall ADP: 98, Positional ADP: RB32
Let me start by saying that I really like Moss as a prospect and had him ranked as a top-five running back in this year’s class. However, he’s going to be in a timeshare with Devin Singletary for a long time, and not receive much of the passing-down work. Sure, he’ll get goal-line work when Josh Allen doesn’t, but starting running backs who require touchdowns can be dicey. His draft position suggests he’ll be used as a starter (RB3/flex) in your lineup, rather than a solid RB4 who’d be great if anything were to happen to Singletary. He’s being overvalued right now.
D.J. Moore (WR) Overall ADP: 16, Positional ADP: WR6
Did I miss something? When did Moore become one of the elite fantasy wide receivers? WR6? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid player who was trending in the right direction, but he doesn’t belong in the elite tier. Volume goes a long way with wide receivers and Moore’s 135 targets ranked 10th in the league last year, while he finished as the No. 18 receiver. Sure, his targets weren’t coming from the best of quarterbacks, but he’s going to lose some targets this year now that they signed Robby Anderson to a two-year deal. His price is way overinflated. At best, he’s a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
David Montgomery (RB) Overall ADP: 60, Positional ADP: RB22
I’m reaching here, as I have Montgomery just one spot lower in my rankings than startup ADP has him. It seems everyone is down on the Bears offense, and rightfully so, but that makes for no value in trades. Montgomery feels properly valued right now, though I can see his value rising if the Bears offense gets back on track. It’s a bit worrisome they didn’t really address the offensive line issues, though.
Tee Higgins (WR) Overall ADP: 62, Positional ADP: WR31
Here’s another player I liked in the pre-draft process, but not enough to call him a bonafide WR3 in fantasy football before he even steps on the field. He’s being drafted ahead of some proven veterans, which can lead to disaster for a startup team. Higgins comes into the league as a deep threat without too much speed, and though his ball-tracking is phenomenal, separating will only get harder in the NFL. I like him for his potential upside, but his price is too high.
Austin Hooper (TE) Overall ADP: 97, Positional ADP: TE9
I thought dynasty owners would wake up to the fact that there simply aren’t enough targets to go around for Hooper to be a fantasy stud in Cleveland, but his price has remained in the same vicinity. The Browns picked up the fifth-year option on David Njoku, so he’ll be there for two more seasons, and they drafted Harrison Bryant in the fourth round. They’re going to be using plenty of 2TE sets, like Kevin Stefanski did in Minnesota, where Kyle Rudolph got 48 targets, while Irv Smith Jr. got 47 of them. I’d be shocked if Hooper eclipses 80 targets on that team. Trade him away for Hayden Hurst (who’s going four rounds later) and a few draft picks.
Michael Gallup (WR) Overall ADP: 80, Positional ADP: WR40
When the Cowboys selected CeeDee Lamb, it hurt Gallup’s value more than anyone seems to realize. If you think he’ll remain the No. 2, it doesn’t explain why Lamb’s ADP is sitting at 35 overall and the No. 15 wide receiver. And truth be told, Lamb is being a bit overvalued right now as well. They’re going to cap each other’s upside in this offense, as you simply don’t see three top-40 wide receivers (two top-15) on one team very often, especially when you have a running back like Ezekiel Elliott. The hope for Gallup is that he moves on from the Cowboys once his rookie deal is up.
Courtland Sutton (WR) Overall ADP: 37, Positional ADP: WR17
The NFL Draft wasn’t the best thing for Sutton’s dynasty value, as the Broncos added three playmakers in the passing game, as Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam are all going to get some of the limited targets available in the Broncos offense. I’m still keeping Sutton in low-end WR2 territory, but paying a borderline third-round price for him in a startup is paying for his ceiling with Jeudy in the mix.
T.J. Hockenson (TE) Overall ADP: 96, Positional ADP: TE8
There was a lot of hype surrounding Hockenson coming into the NFL, though he did not live up to it. After an explosion in Week 1, he fell flat on his face. His 54.2 percent catch-rate ranked 331st out of 357 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets over the last 10 years. He was the only tight end who saw 30-plus targets in 2019 and failed to average at least 1.40 PPR points per target. I do believe he’ll bounce back in a lot of ways, but his price hasn’t moved from the time he was drafted. He should come at a discount after that rookie season.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
A.J. Dillon (RB) Overall ADP: 110, Positional ADP: RB36
This was somewhat laughable to me, as I didn’t realize anyone was getting aboard the Dillon bandwagon. It’s close to his actual draft position, too, as there was one draft he went 80th overall, while the lowest he dropped was 122nd overall. With Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in the picture, he’s not going to be seeing more than 6-10 touches per game for quite some time, yet there are some out there who are drafting him as a low-end RB3. This is an easy sell. Jordan Love is another overvalued prospect on the Packers, being drafted as the No. 25 quarterback (who won’t play for a few years).
Kenny Stills (WR) Overall ADP: 195, Positional ADP: WR80
He’s done in the slot, that much we know. The Texans now have Randall Cobb, Stills, and Keke Coutee for that role, and it’s been where Stills has done damage throughout his years. In a recent study I did, Stills ranks as the third-most dependent on slot targets for increased fantasy production. With Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller on the perimeter, Stills is on the outside looking in. You should take a shot on a younger receiver with more upside than Stills. For instance, John Ross and Quintez Cephus are going after him in startups.
Michael Pittman (WR) Overall ADP: 71, Positional ADP: WR36
The Colts were a team that had a lot of value and not many who should be considered sell-highs, though Pittman is being overvalued right now. I get it, he offers legitimate top-20 receiver potential, but we’ve said that about a lot of rookies coming into the league. You need to adjust rankings with risk baked in. It’s possible that Pittman just doesn’t last in the NFL. Remember how excited people were about N’Keal Harry last year? How about JJ Arcega-Whiteside? I’m not suggesting Pittman will fall into that category, but you must understand it’s possible. To draft him as a WR3, you’re taking on too much risk.
Laviska Shenault (WR) Overall ADP: 83, Positional ADP: WR42
You aren’t guaranteed anything in the NFL, especially if you fall out of the first round, like Shenault did. The Jaguars have a receiving corps of D.J. Chark, who proved to be a legitimate threat last year, Dede Westbrook, who’s locked into the slot role, and Chris Conley, who’s under contract for one more season. While Shenault should be able to surpass Conley, it’s hard to see a scenario where he’s a factor in fantasy football for at least a year or two, so why pay borderline starter prices to get him? He’s going in front of Brandin Cooks… really?
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Demarcus Robinson (WR) Overall ADP: 233, Positional ADP: WR101
There are a lot of Chiefs properly valued right now, and those who are overvalued, it’s not by much. I mean, who wants to let go of components from the best offense in the NFL? It doesn’t make sense. I had to pick someone, so I took the easy way out with Robinson, who’s waiver wire material. According to my rankings, Mecole Hardman is overvalued as the No. 46 wide receiver off boards, but I understand the risk/reward factor there, as that’s WR4 pricing, which means he won’t be starting for you.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Bryan Edwards (WR) Overall ADP: 98, Positional ADP: WR52
Here’s another instance of a rookie wide receiver being overvalued. While scouting Edwards, my final words were “he could be a player in this league.” Being drafted in the third round has increased the probability of that happening, but let’s not pretend he’s a sure thing. There are proven producers like Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and others doesn’t make much sense. By drafting Edwards, you’re hoping he sees 6-7 targets per game. With other proven veterans, you have that available. I’m not opposed to drafting or owning Edwards, but just not at that cost.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Justin Herbert (QB) Overall ADP: 168, Positional ADP: QB19
He’s going to get opportunity for a few years after being the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, but I don’t see Herbert as a long-term fantasy solution. He doesn’t offer much mobility and he doesn’t have a starting left tackle after they traded away Russell Okung this offseason. Seeing him drafted ahead of guys like Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill makes little sense.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Cam Akers (RB) Overall ADP: 29, Positional ADP: RB16
There are many things I understand when looking at ADP, but there are things like this that make me confused. This is one of them. I get wanting to like Akers and believing he’ll be the top dog in Los Angeles, but spending a top-30 startup pick to find out? He’s going ahead of Kenny Golladay, Julio Jones, Aaron Jones, Allen Robinson, and Travis Kelce right now. I’m sorry, what?? If you own Akers and can land any of these players for him, you should be jumping at the chance.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Overall ADP: 126, Positional ADP: QB11
We all know the reason Tagovailoa fell in the draft, right? Injury concerns. Those aren’t going away. Do you know what those injuries will take away? Rushing upside. That means you need Tagovailoa to become a top-12 quarterback with his arm. Taking him over someone like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan seems like it’s on the risky side, and those are two quarterbacks going rounds later.
Alexander Mattison (RB) Overall ADP: 109, Positional ADP: RB35
I actually like Mattison as a sturdy handcuff, but he’s being drafted ahead of some running backs who have an actual shot at earning the starting job. As long as Dalvin Cook is around, there’s no possibility for Mattison to take over as the starter. I’d rather have someone like Ronald Jones, who’s being drafted later.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
N’Keal Harry (WR) Overall ADP: 83, Positional ADP: WR43
This one was puzzling to me, as Harry did nothing to justify his draft position during his rookie year. The Patriots are now choosing between Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer to start under center, which will surely cut back the number of pass attempts. Still, Harry is being drafted as a middling WR4 in front of guys like Brandin Cooks (who’s been a top-24 receiver in all but one season), Will Fuller, and A.J. Green. I figured he’d be a buy in dynasty leagues, but after looking at his current ADP, he’s still overvalued.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Adam Trautman (TE) Overall ADP: 177, Positional ADP: TE23
Does anyone realize that Drew Brees won’t be the quarterback throwing to Trautman once he’s finally ready to contribute. It might be Taysom Hill, it might be Jameis Winston. The truth is that we don’t know. Trautman is a developmental tight end who just started playing tight end a few years ago after being recruited as a quarterback. His value will likely dip down further than this before it moves in the right direction (if it ever does).
NEW YORK GIANTS
Darius Slayton (WR) Overall ADP: 94, Positional ADP: WR48
The rise of Slayton in dynasty formats has been meteoric, as he went from being the 235th overall player to the 94th overall seemingly overnight. The issue with thinking his 2019 production continues is due to the surrounding talent on the roster. He’ll compete with Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Saquon Barkley, and Evan Engram for targets. While Shepard didn’t have a single game with less than six targets, Slayton had less than six in 8-of-14 games. You can’t forget that the Giants never had all of their skill-position players on the field at once. There’s just so many mouths to feed, it’s tough to draft any of them with any degree of certainty.
NEW YORK JETS
Denzel Mims (WR) Overall ADP: 72, Positional ADP: WR37
Let me be clear: There will be a few of these rookies listed in here who break out and have a fantastic career. Those players will be called outliers. While playing dynasty, you want to play the odds, which has been figured out with a measurement of risk/reward. When you take part in a startup and draft a player to start as a borderline WR3, you’d better be sure he’s going to produce. Sam Darnold has yet to create a usable weekly fantasy asset in each of his first two years, so taking the risk of drafting Mims at 72 overall seems too risky.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside (WR) Overall ADP: 200, Positional ADP: WR83
Sure, the Eagles used a second-round pick on Arcega-Whiteside, but after losing Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson in 2019, they decided to pick up Jordan Matthews off the street to use him rather than use Arcega-Whiteside in a bigger role. After they cut Matthews, they then went to Greg Ward, a player almost no one had heard of, and he doubled the targets that Arcega-Whiteside got on the year despite playing in just six games. Oh, then the Eagles went out and drafted three wide receivers in the top six rounds of the draft, and also traded for Marquise Goodwin.
James Washington (WR) Overall ADP: 157, Positional ADP: WR69
He’s someone I was high on coming into the league, but it just hasn’t clicked with him to this point. There were flashes in 2019 but not enough for the Steelers to avoid drafting Chase Claypool in the second round. We know JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson are playing in 2WR sets, so it’ll be Claypool and Washington battling for the No. 3 duties. His ADP is correct if you assume he’s the starter, though that doesn’t bake in any risk.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) Overall ADP: 83, Positional ADP: WR41
Many were shocked when the 49ers traded up to draft Aiyuk in the first round, myself included. Receivers who are drafted in the first three rounds will typically get tons of opportunity, but the concern with Aiyuk is that Deebo Samuel‘s the go-to-guy for Jimmy Garoppolo in a run-first offense. Aiyuk was considered a deep threat coming into the league, while Garoppolo only threw the ball deep on just 6.5 percent of his pass attempts, easily the lowest mark in the league. I raised Aiyuk up my draft board after he was drafted in the first round, but nowhere near the No. 41 receiver.
Greg Olsen (TE) Overall ADP: 236, Positional ADP: TE38
I’m not usually looking to sell pieces off one of the best offenses in the league, especially when we hear they’re going to throw a bit more moving forward. Because of that, Olsen’s the only player with no appeal to me. He’s moving to a new offense, is 35 years old, and has topped 50 yards just eight times in the last three years. The injuries have piled up and he was even going to retire, so this move for the Seahawks was puzzling, though he’s likely just insurance for Will Dissly.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Rob Gronkowski (TE) Overall ADP: 131, Positional ADP: TE14
I’m convinced that those drafting Gronkowski as a top 15 tight end in dynasty don’t remember his last season in New England. He scored in just 3-of-13 games and topped 56 yards just four times. Keep in mind that the Patriots receiving corps was nothing impressive. Now in Tampa Bay, targets will be much harder to come by with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard on the roster. You “might” get TE14 value out of Gronkowski for one more season if he stays healthy, but that’s clearly not worth the price tag.
A.J. Brown (WR) Overall ADP: 26, Positional ADP: WR9
There should be an asterisk next to Brown’s name here because it depends on what draft you’re taking part in. I say that because I was able to land Brown as the WR17 in a startup dynasty draft recently. However, this article is based on his “average” draft position, which is currently WR9. That’s too high for a player with just 84 targets under his belt. Not just that, but we also have a small sample size of Ryan Tannehill being great with the Titans. While it’s possible that the duo is really all that, you shouldn’t pay for it without getting any discount. The Titans wide receivers combined for just 254 targets last year (ranked 25th), which leaves little room for error.
Antonio Gibson (WR/RB) Overall ADP: 125, Positional ADP: W57/RB42
There are a lot of fantasy analysts excited about Gibson’s potential in the NFL, but I’m not so sure why. The Redskins offense isn’t what you’d call high-powered, and before you start working up gadget plays for Gibson, you have to get through the dozen running backs that are on the roster. This is a team that ran just 55.3 plays per game in 2019, which is why there wasn’t room for much production, and why Terry McLaurin was the only option that could be relied upon. You shouldn’t overpay for a player who had a grand total of just 77 touches in college and plays on a bottom-tier offense in the NFL.