New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 54.0
Line: LAR by 2.5
QBs
Drew Brees: After three quarters, it was looking like another weak outing for Brees, but he turned on the turbo button in the fourth quarter and finished as the NO. 5 quarterback on the week, showing he’s still got it. The Rams benefitted from a soft schedule early in the season against the pass, but they do have weaknesses that can be exposed in their secondary, but that’s not what you need to worry about with Brees. What you need to worry about is how dominant their running backs have been and the fact that the Rams have been among the league’s worst run-stopping teams. This game has the highest over/under on the slate, so it seems the oddsmakers are expecting some fireworks. There’s been just one quarterback to throw for more than 280 yards against them this year and that was Brian Hoyer of all people. It’s also worth noting that no quarterback has thrown the ball more than 38 times against the Rams, likely because they were able to run the ball extremely well. This game is outdoors, so that moves the needle slightly down for him, though he’s still in the mid-to-low-end QB1 conversation.
Jared Goff: The Saints defense has been much better than anyone expected this year, so when I saw the total for this game sitting at 54, it seemed way too high. Yes, the Rams have been a high-scoring team, but they’ve done a lot of that scoring against bad defenses. Fun fact: The Saints have allowed just 5-of-10 quarterbacks score 10.0 or more fantasy points. Outside of Sam Bradford and Tom Brady in Weeks 1 and 2, the Saints have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than 167 yards. This is not me saying Goff won’t cross that threshold, but it’s a tougher matchup than most think, especially knowing he’s going to be without his No. 1 weapon, Robert Woods. In the six games Goff has totaled more than 10 fantasy points, here are those defenses and their rank against fantasy quarterbacks: IND (25), SF (29), DAL (16), ARI (27), NYG (30), and HOU (32). In the other four games where he scored 10 or less points, the defenses ad their ranks were: WAS (26), SEA (7), JAX (1), and MIN (10). Moral of the story is that he’s struggled against good defenses and dominated bad ones. If Marshon Lattimore is able to suit up, Goff is just a mediocre QB2, but if he’s out, Goff is towards the high-end QB2 conversation. Editor’s note: Marshon Lattimore was declared out on Friday.
RBs
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara: It’s very much possible that we’re witnessing the best duo of running backs in fantasy history. Ingram and Kamara have torn up the NFL from the moment they traded away Adrian Peterson. From Week 6 through Week 11, they rank as the No. 1 and No. 2 fantasy running backs in both standard and PPR, and it’s really not all that close. Coincidentally, the Rams defense has allowed a league-high six 20-point performances to running backs this year. There’s no other team who’s allowed more than four of those games. It’s come both on the ground and through the air, as they’ve allowed 4.51 yards per carry to go along with 11 total touchdowns (9 rush, 2 rec). There’s no reason to hide from Ingram or Kamara as RB1’s in this game.
Todd Gurley: He’s gotten back into the end zone in three of the last four weeks, which should start to boost confidence, though it’s worrisome that we’re starting to see some lower yardage totals. He’s now totaled 68 yards or less on the ground in four of the last six games. There’s not much concern for fantasy production, though, because he’s hauled in 180 yards through the air the last four weeks, boosting his overall numbers. Those receptions should actually see a bump up this week, knowing that Robert Woods, Goff’s safety blanket, will miss this game. I’d be surprised if Gurley didn’t see at least five targets in this game. The Saints haven’t been an elite run defense or anything, allowing three different running backs to eclipse the 100-yard mark on the ground, though they’ve only allowed four rushing touchdowns. Gurley is a must-play RB1 this week.
WRs
Michael Thomas: He’s now seen at least 10 targets in six of the last nine games and at least eight targets in all but one game this season. We know that he’s Brees’ favorite target, so why hasn’t he found the end zone since Week 4? Because of the run game and how dominant they’ve been inside the red zone. He’s going to have a two-touchdown game soon, though it’s fair to wonder if this is the game to expect it. The Rams just allowed their first WR1 performance of the year to Adam Thielen last week, which is impressive considering they’ve played DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefon Diggs. He’s a model of consistency, so you will trot him out there as a high-end WR2, at worst, but don’t expect his breakout game this week.
Ted Ginn: Who would’ve thought we’d say consistency and Ginn in the same sentence, but he’s now totaled at least 59 yards in five of the last six games, making him a relatively safe option in fantasy leagues. Now he’s only seen more than six targets once, which is concerning against the Rams. Of the eight wide receivers who’ve finished as top-36 options against them, all but one had at least eight targets, a number that Ginn hasn’t reached this season. He’s still on the WR3 radar, but he’ll likely need a big play to deliver value.
Brandon Coleman/Willie Snead: These two are alternating with snaps and cancelling each other out, though Coleman played much more in Week 11 after it seemed that Snead was on his way up. Coleman is the only one who’s produced this year, so if you must pick one, it’s him, though I don’t love either in this matchup.
Sammy Watkins: Everything seems to be aligning for Watkins this week. Marshon Lattimore looks doubtful to play and Robert Woods has already been ruled out with a shoulder injury. The reason I say doubtful on Lattimore is because the team signed two cornerbacks on Tuesday, a sign that he may be inactive, though they’ve offered no status update. On the year, Watkins has seen more than five targets just once, and in that game, he totaled 106 yards and two touchdowns. He should see a decent number of targets in this game, as Woods’ departure clears up roughly seven targets per game. You need to pay attention to the status of Lattimore, but if he’s out, consider Watkins a high-upside WR3. If he plays, Watkins is just a risky WR4. Editor’s note: Marshon Lattimore was declared out on Friday.
Cooper Kupp: He hasn’t had the problem Watkins has had, as he’s totaled at least five targets in 8-of-10 games this year. He’s been the Frank Gore of wide receivers, consistently finishing in between 5.5 and 10.7 PPR points, occasionally throwing in a 15-point game from time to time. This matchup is a good one, as the Saints were down two starting cornerbacks by the end of last week’s game, including Kenny Vaccaro, who missed the game entirely. He’s recovering from a groin injury that’s held him out multiple weeks, so even if he does return, he may be at less than 100 percent. If he can’t go, the Saints will use De’Vante Harris in coverage, a second-year player who has allowed 14-of-18 targets that’ve come his way to be completed, including two for touchdowns. Kupp is in the WR3 conversation this week, though he lacks the upside that Watkins has.
TEs
Coby Fleener: After seeing just eight targets in his last five games, the Saints decided to throw the ball to Fleener five times in Week 11, netting five catches for 91 yards. He hadn’t played more than 22 snaps since way back in Week 4, but suddenly was on the field for 36 of them on Sunday. I cannot recommend him knowing what his floor is, especially against a Rams team that’s allowed just three top-12 performances all season.
Tyler Higbee: We have to figure the targets from Robert Woods go somewhere, though I’m doubtful that Higbee sees a big bump. He’s already been seeing a consistent 3-6 targets per week, though they haven’t amounted to anything. The Saints have allowed just two tight ends to haul in more than 29 yards against them this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38.0
Line: JAX by 4.5
QBs
Blake Bortles: We have to give Bortles somewhat of a pass for struggling against the Browns last week, as the weather conditions were far from ideal. This week he won’t have that problem, as he’ll be playing in the Cardinals’ dome. Most don’t realize it, but the Cardinals have been among the league’s worst pass defenses, allowing multiple touchdown passes to 6-of-10 quarterbacks, including Tom Savage last week. They do stop the run extremely well, so this may be a week they ask him to do more than they’d prefer. It’s why 9-of-10 quarterbacks have thrown the ball at least 32 times against them. In the games that Bortles has surpassed 30 attempts this season, he averages 230 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns, so he’s definitely on the QB2 radar, and arguably one who should finish inside the top-18 quarterbacks on the week. I will note that the Cardinals have played better defense at home over the last two years.
Blaine Gabbert: All aboard the Gabbert express! After throwing three touchdowns against the hopeless Texans last week, Gabbert was named the starter against his former team, though you do not want to play him, even in 2QB leagues. This is going to be a massacre, as the Cardinals offensive line is not equipped to handle the Jaguars defense. In fact, it’s also Calais Campbell’s return to Arizona, and he will make more of an impact than Gabbert.
RBs
Leonard Fournette: As it turns out, Fournette was just fine for Week 11, as he totaled a season-high 28 carries against the tough Browns defense. It’s now been over a month since Fournette scored his last touchdown, though the game-script in this one sets up well for him. The Cardinals offense is likely to put the Jaguars offense in plenty of good spots, if you know what I mean. The Cardinals have allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season, including two last week to D’Onta Foreman. There’s not much risk here with Fournette, he’s an RB1.
Adrian Peterson: He’s now finished with less than 30 rushing yards in three of the last four games, despite averaging almost 21 carries per game in that span. This is the end, guys. Outside of the first game he played with the Cardinals where he rushed for two touchdowns, everything has gone downhill and he hasn’t scored again. Knowing that he’s about to go against the best defense in the league, it’s safe to say you want to avoid him in fantasy leagues if possible. I’d consider him an RB4 who could get a goal-line plunge, but if he doesn’t score, he busts, big time.
WRs
Marqise Lee: Unfortunately, Lee is going to go up against Patrick Peterson this week, one of the league’s top cornerbacks who is coming off a game where he held DeAndre Hopkins to just four catches for 76 yards, though he did score a touchdown. That’s a great game against Peterson, though Lee isn’t on the level of Hopkins. The reason Lee doesn’t completely fall off the map is because he’s now seen 48 targets over his last five games, which is volume reserved for the league’s best wide receivers. He’s still yet to top 83 yards in any game, showing his limited ceiling, so even with the volume, he’s just a WR4 this week.
Dede Westbrook: So, it wasn’t a John Ross scenario where the Jaguars just put him on the field to look good… Yes, this is a jab at the Bengals for poorly handling Ross. He jumped into his first NFL game and saw six targets, which was the same amount as Keelan Cole, who has been on the field with Bortles all season. That’s a great sign, as is the indoor game for Westbrook’s speed. The Cardinals did bench Justin Bethel and Tramon Williams has come on to play much better, but he’s not a shutdown corner by any means. You shouldn’t need to trust Westbrook without seeing him post results first, but if you’re looking for a high-upside play to stick in your lineup, he’s your guy.
Keelan Cole: In what looked like a solid spot for Cole to make his mark, he left with a taste of disappointment after totaling just three catches for 24 yards against the Browns last week. He has seen 19 targets over the last three weeks, so he’s on fantasy radars, and has arguably the best matchup with Tyrann Mathieu this week. It’s still hard to trust him as anything more than a WR5 considering his lowly performance last week.
Larry Fitzgerald: He’s the only Cardinals wide receiver you should even give a single thought about, as he’ll avoid Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye a majority of the time. Still, Aaron Colvin has played well out of the slot for them. He’s allowing a decent 67 percent of passes to be completed, but he’s giving up just dump-off passes, because he’s allowing just 7.5 yards per reception, one of the lower marks in all of football. Fitz has seen at least nine targets in each of the last three games, even though the Cardinals have tried to commit to the run, so feel confident starting him as a WR3, though he’s likely to finish with a very boring fantasy total.
TEs
Marcedes Lewis: Some mocked me when I added Lewis to stream at tight end last week, but who’s laughing now? Okay, he totaled just two catches for 26 yards, but his touchdown put him into the TE1 range, making it all worthwhile. He’s seen 13 targets in the last three games, though his two targets in Week 11 is the one that remains in our minds. The Cardinals were a team that dominated the tight end position in 2016, but it’s been a complete 180 in 2017, as they’ve allowed four 15-point PPR games, the second-most of any team in the league. With that being said, those tight ends were Jimmy Graham, Cameron Brate, Zach Ertz, and Jack Doyle, who all saw at least eight targets. Lewis isn’t an awful play, but he’s just a middling-TE2.
Jermaine Gresham and Ricky Seals-Jones: Before you run to your waiver wire to snag Seals-Jones, you must know that he played just eight snaps in Week 11. Sure, he scored two touchdowns and was targeted five times on those snaps, but trusting someone like that is going to end badly a majority of the time. Fortunately, he’s not even a tempting play against the Jaguars, who have allowed just one top-10 performance all season. Gresham may lose his job, so he’s definitely not in play here.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 41.5
Line: PIT by 14.0
QBs
Brett Hundley: Wait, so Hundley isn’t a great quarterback who can nail 20-yard back shoulder throws? Got it. When watching Hundley, you can tell that he’s been trying to learn from Rodgers in some of the mechanics that he displays, but he simply doesn’t have the talent to pull them off. Don’t worry, though, nobody does. While the Ravens game was a defensive battle, this game in Pittsburgh will feature plenty of passing for the underwhelming Hundley. I still believe this Steelers defense has holes in it, as shown by them allowing 951 yards through the air over the last three weeks to Matthew Stafford, Jacoby Brissett, and Marcus Mariota. Each of them were able to post at least 14.7 fantasy points and Hundley’s legs should allow him to creep into that category, making him a middle-of-the-pack QB2.
Ben Roethlisberger: Last week was a good one for the Steelers offense, as Roethlisberger posted his first game with more than two touchdowns all year. The Packers have been much better than last year when it comes to fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but they aren’t a good secondary by any means. They’re allowing a rather-high 68.1 percent of passes to be completed, the second-highest mark in the league. They’re also allowing 7.75 yards per attempt, the fifth-highest mark. Touchdowns will follow those numbers, so while I believe this is a big Bell game, Roethlisberger is a solid high-floor QB1 who also possesses a high ceiling. He will be without his starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert, though the Packers will be without their top defensive lineman Kenny Clark, evening things out a bit.
RBs
Jamaal Williams: At this point, I wouldn’t be counting on Ty Montgomery contributing to fantasy lineups, even if he does play, though it would limit Williams’ ceiling if he does suit up. This is a Sunday night game, so it’s very likely we don’t know if he’ll play by noon on Sunday. The Steelers have been great against running backs as of late, and haven’t allowed an entire team of running backs to total more than 63 rushing yards over the last five games, which included Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs. Williams was used heavily in the passing game last week, hauling in 4-of-6 targets for 38 yards. With that usage, it’s hard to not use him as an RB3 in this game, but understand that his ceiling is capped with Hundley under center.
Le’Veon Bell: He’s been catching some flack lately for his underwhelming performances, as he’s totaled just 202 rushing yards and one touchdown over the last three games. Some just have too high of expectations, as Bell is still the most consistent running back in football, and there isn’t a single running back you’d rather have for the remainder of the season. This week should be a good one for him, too, as the Packers will be without defensive lineman Frank Clark, who has been one of the most dominant players against the run this year. His absence will be felt and knowing the Packers were bottom-10 against fantasy running backs before that should have you salivating if you’re a Bell owner. He’s likely the top player on my board this week.
WRs
Davante Adams: We talked about it here last week, that Adams is clearly the No. 1 target for Hundley, and it continued last week. He’s now seen at least eight targets in four of the five games that Hundley has played, while Nelson has faded into fantasy oblivion. It should give you more confidence starting Adams knowing that the Ravens had allowed just three top-20 performances coming into that game. He’s playing great football despite the lackluster play from Hundley, so plugging him in as a low-end WR2 against the Steelers feels right. After not allowing a single wide receiver eclipse 61 yards through their first seven games, they’ve now allowed five wide receivers to do that in their last three games, and another one to hit 60 yards. They’ve lost Joe Haden for a few weeks as well, so Adams’ matchup doesn’t look as bad as it did a few weeks back.
Jordy Nelson: It’s just sad at this point, as Nelson was the No. 1 wide receiver in points per game when Aaron Rodgers went down, but has now totaled just 92 scoreless yards in the last four games combined. Since that game Rodgers got hurt, Nelson is the No. 59 wide receiver in standard leagues, behind names like De’Anthony Thomas, Roger Lewis, and Ryan Grant. Mike Hilton has covered the slot for the Steelers, so it’s not like his slot involvement is going to help him in this game, either. It’s hard to completely move on from one of the best fantasy wide receivers from the past decade, but he’s just a risky WR4 at this point.
Antonio Brown: As it turned out, my bold prediction of 100 yards and two touchdowns for Brown wasn’t enough, as he destroyed the Titans secondary for over 150 yards and three touchdowns for the performance of the year. His matchup this week is phenomenal once again, as the Packers have rookie cornerback Kevin King (missed last week with a shoulder injury) and free agent acquisition Davon House patrolling the perimeter. Should King miss this week, they’ll trot Josh Hawkins out there, who has played just 224 career snaps. There’ve been five wide receivers who’ve hit the 100-yard bonus against them and another four wide receivers who were able to top 80 yards. This is another dream matchup for the WR1.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster was declared OUT for this game on Friday due to a hamstring injury.
Martavis Bryant: Pay attention to the status of Smith-Schuster, because if he were to miss this game, the Steelers may take it as an opportunity to get Bryant more involved. He’s seen nine targets the last two weeks, including a few deep shots. Knowing that the Packers allow a massive 7.75 yards per attempt, this could be his week. I’ve been able to somewhat move on and not recommend Bryant as a fantasy starter, but I also won’t pretend that he comes with no upside. He does, so if you’re set as a big underdog and are looking to play someone who offers you a 20-point ceiling, Bryant does. If Smith-Schuster plays, he’s nothing more than a big-play-hopeful WR4.
TEs
Lance Kendricks: Since the Packers have been without Martellus Bennett (the last three games), Kendricks has totaled just nine targets that have amounted to four catches for 46 scoreless yards. You aren’t going to trust him against a Steelers defense that’s allowed just two top-12 performances all year.
Jesse James: I mentioned last week that James was an interesting dart-throw because we know how much of an offensive juggernaut the Steelers are at home, but it obviously helped that Vance McDonald was inactive. When both play, they really do cancel each other out. This is not a week to take a chance on either of them, even if just one is active, as the Packers have been dominant against tight ends, allowing just 38.4 yards per game to them and they’ve yet to allow a touchdown.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 38.0
Line: BAL by 7.0
QBs
Tom Savage: In what is likely the worst Monday night game of the year, you don’t want to start Savage against the Ravens. On the year, they’ve allowed just 9.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. By comparison, there are six teams who allow more points per game to opposing tight ends. The Ravens have actually held six quarterbacks to less than 190 yards passing, and this game is in Baltimore on primetime. Just say no.
Joe Flacco: This may sound like it’s coming out of left field, but Flacco is in the streaming conversation this week. If you haven’t realized it, the Texans have what seems to be the worst pass defense in the league. Since losing both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5, they’ve allowed 16 passing touchdowns in six games. If you were to remove the game with Kevin Hogan, they’ve allowed 15 touchdowns in their last five games. I mean, even Blaine Gabbert was able to throw for 257 yards and three touchdowns against them. Hogan was the only one who finished outside the top-10 against them. With Maclin and Woodhead healthy, he’s got a few weapons to throw to, making him a high-floor QB2 who is teetering on the QB1 conversation.
RBs
Lamar Miller: It was starting to look like D’Onta Foreman would eat into his carries down the stretch, but now that he’s out for the year, Miller’s job is safe, though the Texans did sign Andre Ellington off waivers this week. The Ravens aren’t a team to target with running backs, however, as they’ve now allowed just 146 yards on 57 carries (2.56 yards per carry) and one touchdown over the last three weeks. When playing a volume running back, what you often want is a goal-line plunge to prop up his numbers, but Miller hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown with Savage under center. He’s just a volume low-end RB2 play on Monday night.
Alex Collins, Danny Woodhead, and Javorius Allen: If you’re one of the Collins owners out there who seems to have difficulty selecting the games that he’ll do well in, let me help you out – he’s not a great start this week. The Texans are allowing sub-3.5 yards per carry and haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since way back in Week 1 to Leonard Fournette. This game-script should suit him well, but this is a game where Flacco should shine. Still, he’s going to see enough carries to warrant an RB3 start. Woodhead only played on 13 snaps in his return, but it was a game that they didn’t need to throw a whole lot. Knowing that he already out-snapped Allen makes Allen irrelevant in fantasy leagues. The interesting part with Woodhead is that he’s played just 19 snaps this year, but has carried the ball or been targeted on 11 of those plays. He’s got the looks of someone who can be plugged into your flex, though he’s likely still going to be eased in.
WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: After seeing Davante Adams post eight catches for 126 yards against the Ravens, you aren’t so worried about Hopkins’ matchup this week. I mean, if he was able to post 76 yards and a touchdown on Patrick Peterson, you really don’t worry about him in any situation. But this is another matchup that isn’t great, as Adams was the first wide receiver who was able to post more than 95 yards on the year. Outside of their London game that seemed to get them all discombobulated, they’ve allowed just five touchdown passes in their other nine games. He’ll see a lot of Jimmy Smith in this matchup, their No. 1 cornerback who has allowed just 9.0 yards per reception and a 50 percent catch rate with no touchdowns. It’s one of the tougher matchups on the slate, but we already know Hopkins remains in the WR1 conversation due to his consistent targets.
Bruce Ellington: It seems like we’ll go another week without Will Fuller, so Ellington is in the fantasy conversation. He plays out of the slot, which works well for him avoiding Smith and Brandon Carr in coverage. He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of his last three games, a solid floor when searching for a waiver wire addition. This is likely to be a low-scoring game and one that is low volume, so it’s hard to trust him as anything more than a WR4/WR5 in standard leagues, though he comes with a somewhat safe floor in PPR leagues.
Jeremy Maclin: Ugh… the matchup that we loved for him last week out of the slot was exploited, just not by him. Wallace plays a few snaps out of the slot and it just so happens that he scored a touchdown on one of them. That’s going to happen from time to time. Maclin has still seen at least five targets in each of his last seven games, combined with his talent typically means good things for fantasy owners. The Texans have now allowed 16 touchdowns in their last six games, including eight wide receiver touchdowns in their last four games. Slot receiver Larry Fitzgerald dominated them last week for nine catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown with targets coming from Blaine Gabbert. Maclin deserves serious consideration as your WR3 this week.
Mike Wallace: He’s now scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, taking advantage of soft matchups. This is another one, as the Texans have allowed multiple touchdowns to one player in each of their last four games, with three of them being wide receivers. The question comes down to which wide receiver that Flacco goes to, but if the rest of the season has been an indication, it’s that he prefers Maclin, as Wallace has just 39 targets in nine games while Maclin has 47 targets in his eight games. Still, Wallace is worth a look as a high-end WR4 this week.
TEs
C.J. Fiedorowicz: In a good matchup last week against the Cardinals, Fiedorowicz posted just two catches for 18 yards. Since returning from the IR two weeks ago, he’s seen eight targets but has shown no chemistry with Savage, catching just four of them for 28 yards. The Ravens are a team that is weak against the tight end position, allowing 397 yards and six touchdowns on just 53 targets to the position, which amounts to a 121.3 QB Rating when targeting them. Still, Fiedorowicz needs to show signs of life before trusting him.
Ben Watson: Outside of one game against the Browns back in Week 2, Watson has been consistently mediocre, failing to record more than 43 yards in any one game. He’s scored just two touchdowns on the season and one of them came in complete garbage time with Ryan Mallett in at quarterback. But here’s the thing – with the Texans crumbling right before our eyes, he’s an option. They’ve allowed five top-five performances on the season, including one to Ricky Seals-Jones on just eight snaps played. It hurts to know that of 98 tight ends who have seen a target, he ranks 73rd in yards per target and has a low touchdown ceiling, so seeing him as anything more than a high-end TE2 would be a mistake, even in a good matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Total: 44.5
Line: MIN by 1.0
QBs
Case Keenum: Over the last three weeks, Keenum has played like a quarterback who is fighting for his job. In that time, he’s thrown for an average of 290.7 yards per game (at least 280 in each game) with a total of seven touchdowns. Two of those games came against the Browns and Redskins, but it’s still impressive nonetheless. After holding the first four quarterbacks they played to QB23 or worse (really), the Lions have allowed at least 14.5 fantasy points to each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played, including Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer, and Mitch Trubisky. Because of that, you cannot dismiss Keenum as a mid-tier QB2 on Thanksgiving. The issue with expecting too big of a performance is that it’s a divisional game where the two teams know each other extremely well, as the coaching staffs have been in place for some time.
Matthew Stafford: One of the more consistent quarterbacks in fantasy football this year, Stafford has now crossed the 14.9-point barrier in 8-of-10 games, including at least 18.0 points in each of the last four games. The Vikings have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown against them this year, and none have thrown for more than two touchdowns. These two teams played each other back in Week 4 where Stafford completed 19-of-31 passes for 209 yards and no touchdowns in what was his worst performance of the season. That was on the road, so returning home will be inviting on such a short week. Knowing that the run game continues to struggle, they’ll ask Stafford to do plenty against this defense. Consider him a high-end QB2, but not one that I’d play in any DFS tournaments.
RBs
Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray: We knew this was a timeshare way back in Week 5 and 6, but nobody thought Murray would eat into McKinnon’s production like he has the last month. In their last four games, the touches break down like this: Murray 71 (69 rush, 2 rec), McKinnon 68 (52 rush, 16 rec). Do you see where this is going? When the Vikings have positive game-script, Murray figures to see the majority of touches, including goal-line work. McKinnon is still the more explosive player who will come with the higher floor, though he doesn’t offer the ceiling that Murray does without the touchdowns. The Lions have struggled without Haloti Ngata on the defensive line allowing 625 yards on 122 carries (5.12 YPC) and seven touchdowns over the five games without him compared to the 355 yards on 102 carries (3.48 YPC) and three touchdowns in the five games with him. Knowing that makes both McKinnon and Murray legitimate RB2 options in Week 12. The Lions have allowed the ninth-most receiving yardage, which obviously benefits McKinnon. This game should be competitive and the turf should help the agile McKinnon, making me favor him, though they can both be played.
Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick: It’s funny that both McKinnon and Abdullah are playing in this game, as both have had the same issues throughout their careers, though McKinnon finally figured it out while Abdullah really hasn’t. What I’m talking about is their dancing behind the line of scrimmage and how their offensive lines aren’t good enough to do that. McKinnon struggled up until the end of last year when he started getting downhill. Abdullah suffers from the same thing and will likely learn down the road, but expecting things to change this season aren’t likely. There have been just two games all season where Abdullah has totaled more than 54 rushing yards and both games came in the first four weeks. He’s getting goal-line carries which is always helpful, but the Vikings have allowed just three rushing scores all season. They’ve also held running backs to just 3.40 yards per carry Abdullah did have a season-high 94 yards against them in Week 4, but I’m not betting on that happening again. He’s just a low-end RB2 who does come with a semi-decent floor. He’s losing out on more of the passing work, too, as he’s caught just one or less passes in four of the last six games. Riddick is starting to see more work as well, as he’s coming off a season-high nine carries against the Bears in Week 11. He’s moving into the RB3 conversation, especially in PPR formats.
WRs
Adam Thielen: We are entering Week 12 and there’s still yet to be a game where Thielen has finished with fewer than five receptions. He was the first wide receiver to finish top-12 against the Rams this season, showing that he can get it done even in tough matchups. This isn’t really a tough matchup against Quandre Diggs, who hasn’t been tested much this season. He’s only faced 31 targets on the season, which is questionable, because quarterbacks have a 122.9 rating when targeting wide receivers in his coverage. You’re playing Thielen as a borderline WR1 at this point and there’s no reason to be worried about this matchup.
Stefon Diggs: He’s going to see a lot of Darius Slay in coverage on Thanksgiving, which isn’t ideal. Slay has been shadowing No. 1 wide receivers and doing a very good job, allowing just a 54.5 percent catch rate in coverage and just 10.4 yards per reception. Diggs was able to post a solid fantasy game against them in Week 4 when he posted five catches for 98 yards. While I think it’s Thielen’s turn, you can’t bench Diggs, even in tough matchups. His target share is a bit concerning under Keenum, as he’s seen six or fewer targets in 5-of-7 games, including each of the last four games. Because of that, Diggs is more of a high-end WR3 than the high-end WR2 he was shaping up as early in the season.
Marvin Jones: Most wouldn’t expect it, but Jones has just four fewer targets than his teammate Golden Tate through 10 games. Jones is top-20 in targets this season, though his per-target production is off the charts. His 1.38 fantasy points per target in standard leagues ranks 13th among wide receivers with at least 30 targets. Stafford is trusting him in one-on-one situations, making him a desirable fantasy receiver. With that being said, Jones is just a WR4 on Thanksgiving. He’ll match-up against Xavier Rhodes, arguably the NFL’s best cornerback. On 43 targets against legit No. 1 wide receivers, he’s allowed just 248 yards and not a single touchdown. The Vikings aren’t going to use him to cover T.J. Jones or Kenny Golladay.
Golden Tate: He’s got the matchup you want in this game, as he’ll match-up with a mixture of 39-year-old Terence Newman and Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Combined, those two have allowed 42 receptions for 448 yards and two touchdowns on 62 targets in coverage. Don’t worry about Tate disappearing against the Bears last week, as the Bears biggest strength in the secondary is their slot cornerbacks. With Stafford struggling in Minnesota, Tate didn’t do anything in Week 4, but I’m banking on a rebound. Play him as a solid WR2.
Kenny Golladay: His snaps were ramped up last week, as he played 35 of the possible 63 snaps (56 percent). He didn’t have a particularly good game against the Bears as he dropped a big pass late in the game, but knowing that Jones will see a lot of Rhodes, Golladay isn’t the worst flier as a WR5 if you want to play someone from this game.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: With Stefon Diggs back healthy and Adam Thielen crushing it every single week, Rudolph has taken a back seat in this offense as somewhat of a role player. He may be slightly more than that, but his 61 targets through 10 games pale in comparison to his 132 targets from 2016. There’s been just one game this year where he’s totaled more than 8.7 fantasy points. Back in their Week 4 meeting, Rudolph totaled just two catches for 34 yards, though he’s been getting more targets since that time. He’s still on the TE1 radar because he’s seen at least seven targets in each of his last six games, which is hard to find. It’s a shame he’s not producing with all those targets. The Lions have allowed three TE1 performances on the year, though just two tight ends have totaled more than 49 yards. He needs to find the end zone.
Eric Ebron: The opposite of Rudolph, Ebron wishes he could see a consistent seven targets per game. It’s worth noting that Ebron tied a season-high in Week 11 with seven targets, turning them into four catches for 49 yards. He’s back on the radar for you streamers out there, though the Vikings aren’t a defense to target with streamers. There’s been just two tight ends to top 39 yards against them this year. One was Vernon Davis, who saw 11 targets, and the other was Coby Fleener way back in Week 1. They’ve also allowed just three tight end touchdowns, so banking on Ebron isn’t very smart this week. He’s just a middling TE2, though his arrow is trending up.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 47.5
Line: DAL by 2.5
QBs
Philip Rivers: I’d argue that Week 11 was Rivers’ best performance of the season, though we can only take so much away from it because, after all, it was the Bills. Fortunately for him, the Cowboys haven’t been much better, allowing 27 or more points in 5-of-10 games this season. They haven’t allowed a “massive” quarterback performance this year, but they’ve steadily allowed quarterbacks to finish in the QB3-QB14 range. Of the 10 quarterbacks who’ve played against them, seven of them threw for multiple touchdowns. Knowing the Cowboys will be without Sean Lee again this week opens things up for their running game, but Rivers is still a solid low-end QB1 this week who comes with a high floor.
Dak Prescott: As a Prescott supporter, there’s not much I can say to defend him the last two weeks. The loss of left tackle Tyron Smith has been massive, as has the loss of Ezekiel Elliott. I’d argue that it’s a team that’s lost its identity. They were targeting the running backs a lot, setting up the long ball with play-action, and finding ways to get Dez Bryant in favorable one-on-one situations. As of now, it seems they’re just having Prescott drop back and hoping for the best. If Smith isn’t back for this game, Prescott is going to get crushed by a Chargers front-seven that brings the pressure. If Smith plays (expected to), Prescott should have enough time to post middling QB1 numbers against a Chargers defense that has been a bend-but-don’t-break defense against fantasy quarterbacks.
RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: It was good to see Gordon get 20 carries in Week 11 despite the team in blowout win mode. It gives you hope that he’s over his knee and foot injuries that bothered him earlier in the season. The Cowboys have been without Sean Lee for three games this year and in those games, they have allowed 451 yards on 72 carries (6.26 YPC) with three touchdowns. This is great news for Gordon, as he’s in line for an elite RB1 week. While Ekeler got his touchdown last week, it came late in the game on a 21-yard scamper. He’s worth consideration in a matchup this good, but don’t think he overtakes Gordon or anything. Ekeler should be viewed as a flex play who comes with some risk, but also some reward.
Alfred Morris and Rod Smith: Let’s be clear about something here – Morris isn’t a horrible running back when carrying the ball. However, he’s not very good at anything else. He isn’t a great pass-blocker and he can’t catch passes, which allows defenses to use their resources elsewhere. He’s limiting the Cowboys offense, even though he’s run the ball well the last two weeks. Again, this is more to do with his inability to do anything else. Most are pointing to his 91 yards on 17 carries against the Eagles to say that he’s not the problem, but he’s also not the solution… obviously. The Cowboys are going to attempt to pound the ball early in this game and it’s probably a wise thing to do, as the Chargers are allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the season. The Chargers also haven’t blown out many teams this year, so Morris should be in line for at least 15 carries in this game, if not 20 of them. Because of that, he’s in the high-end RB2 conversation for standard leagues, though he takes a dip in PPR formats. Smith didn’t do anything to earn a bigger role in Week 11, so expect him to remain behind Morris. You should know that Smith has out-snapped him each of the last two weeks, though he hasn’t out-touched him. Should the Chargers get up on the Cowboys, you’ll see more of Smith, making him a risk/reward flex option that you likely have better options than.
WRs
Keenan Allen: It was the week most who drafted Allen in the third-round were waiting for, as he racked up a ridiculous 12 receptions for 159 yards and two touchdowns. His targets had been good, so it was only a matter of time before he broke through, though I didn’t think he had that game in him with all the targets in Los Angeles. It’s clear the Chargers found a hole in the Bills secondary and exploited it, though the Cowboys don’t have that same hole. Orlando Scandrick has been playing well recently, but he’s not Chris Harris Jr. or anything. Knowing that Allen averages over nine targets per game and that he’s seen at least seven targets in 9-of-10 games, he’s going to be on the WR2 radar every week, and this game is no exception. They have been using him more and more on the perimeter, which is a good thing for his upside.
Tyrell Williams: There is something brewing in the Chargers wide receiver corps and it’s not this Williams. While yes, he’s played over 80 percent of snaps to this point in the season, he’s been a massive disappointment. The Chargers have started to ramp up Mike Williams‘ snaps and it’s only a matter of time before he passes Tyrell. He’ll see a mix of all three Cowboys cornerbacks and while they aren’t anything above average, how much can we trust a player who has seen three or less targets in four of the last six games? He’s just a desperation WR5 at this point.
Mike Williams: While I may not want you to trust him this week, I want you to pay attention, or at least add him in your league. After missing all of training camp and preseason with a back injury, the Chargers No. 7 pick has been seeing increased snaps as of late. Not only did he play a season-high 41 snaps in Week 11, but he also set season-highs in targets (8), receptions (5), and yards (43). He also would have likely scored a touchdown had the sun not been directly in his eyes on an end zone target. His eight targets were more than Tyrell has seen in any one game this season. You can argue that he’s the better play of the two Williams’.
Dez Bryant: After going through a brutal slate of cornerbacks earlier in the year, Bryant gets back on the tough matchup train this week. The Chargers have used Casey Hayward in clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver situations, which Bryant definitely is. Hayward has allowed just a 45 percent catch rate in his coverage, though he’s allowing a rather-high 16.0 yards per reception. Bryant has now seen at least eight targets in 8-of-10 games, making him a must-play regardless of a matchup, though he’s failed to hit the 100-yard mark this season. If Tyron Smith gets back in the lineup, I’ll upgrade Bryant to a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, but if Smith remains out, Bryant is just a shaky WR2 against Hayward.
Terrance Williams: He’s now seen 20 targets over the last three weeks, which is solid volume for someone who is on waiver wires in most leagues. The issue is that Trevor Williams has stepped up as the Chargers No. 2 cornerback and allowed just one touchdown all year. Because of that, Williams isn’t much more than a boring WR5 play.
Cole Beasley: The Cowboys should really try to involve him more in the passing game, as he’s still yet to total more than 33 yards this season, but has two multi-touchdown games. Knowing that Morris doesn’t catch passes and that Prescott is under duress, it’d be wise to check down to Beasley more often. But hey, we’re talking about competent coaching here, something you and I have no control over. Taking the matchups for Bryant/Williams into consideration, it’s not crazy to think Beasley can surprise, though he comes with risk.
TEs
Hunter Henry: Is it possible that Rivers has moved on from his tight-end-targeting ways? After coming around on the idea that Henry was a TE1 after Week 7, Henry has seen just nine targets over the last three weeks and totaled just five catches for 43 yards. He also hasn’t scored since Week 5, making him a low-floor play. Before struggling as of late, he did post at least 7.3 standard fantasy points in 4-of-5 games, so it’s still very possible he turns it around, though the emergence of Mike Williams could derail that from happening. The Cowboys have been really good against tight ends this year in the large picture (season totals), though their competition has been weak. Coming into Week 9, they had yet to allow a TE1 performance, but Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper finished in the top-three over the next two weeks. They limited Zach Ertz last week, but he was also coming off an injury and they didn’t throw the ball very much. Consider Henry a risk/reward high-end TE2 this week, knowing that he comes with a two-point floor, but also a top-three ceiling. It’s unlikely you feel safe with many tight ends, but at least he’s shown you he’s capable.
Jason Witten: He’s been targets just one time in two of the last three games, which goes along with how his season has gone. Once a safe-floor tight end, Witten has now totaled less than 10 yards four times this season. The only tight ends to finish inside the top-15 against the Chargers this year have been Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz, two athletes in their prime. Witten is just a TE2 and not one that’s appealing in this matchup.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Total: 44.0
Line: WAS by 7.0
QBs
Eli Manning: It’s been a year to forget for Manning and the Giants, who are playing for a head coach that’ll no longer be with the team at year’s end. They got a win in Week 11, but it didn’t have anything to do with Manning, who has now finished with 13.0 or less fantasy points in five of the last six games, with the only exception coming against the 49ers. The good news for those of you in 2QB leagues is that this matchup might be just as good as the 49ers game. Here’s a list of the last seven quarterbacks who’ve played the Redskins and their point totals: Alex Smith (27.3), C.J. Beathard (13.2), Carson Wentz (31.0), Dak Prescott (7.3, Ezekiel Elliott went off in this game), Russell Wilson (23.6), Case Keenum (24.2), and Drew Brees (21.6). Seeing that, there’s hope for Manning if he gets Sterling Shepard back. It’s a risky proposition, but Manning has the looks of someone who should be a high-end QB2 this week. I will note that I want no part of him if Sterling Shepard isn’t active.
Kirk Cousins: If you were here last week, Cousins was mentioned as someone who could surprise against the Saints, and he did, totaling 26.0 fantasy points. The Giants just held Alex Smith to 230 yards and no touchdowns, but if you paid attention to my Twitter account before the games, we found out there was going to be 25-plus MPH winds throughout with 35-plus MPH gusts, making Smith a risky play. That was the first time since Week 3 where the Giants haven’t allowed a top-10 performance. The Giants were one of the best defenses in the league last year when Cousins posted 296 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting, then 287 yards and one touchdown in their second one. Knowing that 7-of-10 quarterbacks have either thrown for 300 yards and/or thrown two or more touchdowns, Cousins is one of the safer plays at the quarterback position. He’s now totaled at least 20.6 fantasy points in six of the last eight games and the Giants have allowed at least 20.8 fantasy points in five of the last seven games. It does sting losing Chris Thompson, which can change the continuity of the offense, and this is a divisional game, but I’d play him as a QB1.
RBs
Orleans Darkwa: He’s the only Giants running back to consider, as he’s the only one who’s scored more than 3.8 standard fantasy points since Week 6. In fact, he’s averaged a massive 18 touches per game over the last five weeks, since McAdoo gave up play-calling duties. He’s also caught at least two balls in each of the last four games, which helps when projecting the Giants to lose. He’s totaled at least 72 total yards in five of the last six games, making him an RB2, at worst. The Redskins haven’t been what you’d call a run-stopping defense, either, allowing 4.24 yards per carry on the year. They have struggled as of late, allowing six rushing scores in their last six games. The issue with counting on a massive performance is that he’s got everything going against him here – bad offense, on the road, and a heavy underdog. Still, I’d put him into lineups as an RB2 with all of the volume he’s been getting.
Samaje Perine: What a time to be alive. Jay Gruden is now forced to trust Perine with everything. With Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson out for the season, Perine is going to see massive touch totals for the remaining five weeks of the fantasy season. As it turns out, Perine easily had his best game of the season in Week 11 as he posted 126 total yards and a touchdown against the Saints. Now it was a good matchup, but he’d struggled in good matchups earlier in the year, so this is huge. He was going to see 16-plus carries per game with Thompson in the lineup, but the question becomes – how much will he be used in the passing game? He’s caught 7-of-8 passes this year for 64 yards and a touchdown, so he’s shown the ability. There have been just three running backs to post more than 12.8 PPR points against the Giants this year and they were Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott, three running backs outside of his range. Still, the volume should be there for him and he should have some scoring opportunities, making him a safe-floor RB2.
WRs
Sterling Shepard: Knowing that it was migraines causing Shepard to miss last week’s game, there’s a chance that he misses this game because that’s a long-term concern. See: Percy Harvin. If there’s one area of the field that the Redskins have struggled, it’s defending opposing slot receivers. They have allowed four top-16 performances this season to wide receivers and all of them are slot receivers. Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, and Nelson Agholor (twice) were the ones who did it against them, making Shepard a very attractive high-end WR2 if he suits up for this game. If he misses, Travis Rudolph is the one who’d occupy the slot, making him a DEEP sleeper.
Roger Lewis: He’s an option if Shepard sits, though not an enticing one because he almost never goes into the slot. That means he’d match-up with Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland 95 percent of the time, two cornerbacks who’ve yet to allow a top-15 wide receiver. If Shepard misses, he falls into the WR5 conversation, though you can likely do better.
Josh Doctson: It was some first half for Doctson, as he was able to post four catches for 81 yards on the Saints, but he went into hibernation at halftime and didn’t record a single catch the rest of the game. Maybe that’s why the Saints were able to come back? Taking their foot off the throttle too soon? His matchup with Janoris Jenkins is another brutal one, though Jenkins has shown weak spots to his game over the last few weeks, almost to the point where the Giants considered benching him (which cornerback haven’t they suspended, let along benched). Doctson showed the ability to overcome a tough matchup last week and he’s now seen seven targets in each of the last two games. He’s become what Marvin Jones is for Matthew Stafford, and that is the safety blanket that he has no problem throwing to if he’s in one-on-one coverage. Because of that, Doctson is on the WR3 radar, even in a tough matchup.
Jamison Crowder: He’s now seen 32 targets over the last three games he’s played and it’s likely to continue, as Chris Thompson getting injured frees up a lot of targets over the middle of the field. The Giants have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie covering the slot, and while he’s been excellent over the last few years, he’s struggled along with the entire Giants secondary, allowing 21 of the last 25 targets to come his way to be caught, though he’s allowing just 8.0 yards per reception on the season. Knowing that Crowder is likely locked into eight targets, he’s should still be started as a WR3. If your trade deadline hasn’t come yet, you may want to trade for him right now.
TEs
Evan Engram: Most thought Engram would have a massive game with Shepard out last week, but he had his second-worst game of the season, catching just 1-of-6 targets for 9 scoreless yards. That won’t continue against the Redskins, who have allowed massive fantasy games to tight ends. On the year, there have been 5-of-10 tight ends to post at least 89 yards against them, including 90 to Coby Fleener, who came back from the dead last week. They have allowed four tight end touchdowns as well, making Engram a must-play elite TE1.
Vernon Davis: As of this moment, why should we think that Jordan Reed plays? If he does, you know he’s playable, but Davis is a must-play regardless. The Giants finally didn’t allow a touchdown to a tight end last week! But, they did allow a massive performance of eight catches for 109 yards to Travis Kelce. Each and every tight end not named Tyler Higbee has posted a double-digit PPR game against them. The floor for expectations should be set at around four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Assuming Reed doesn’t play, Davis is a high-end TE1.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
