This is the toughest week to properly evaluate any potential deal. And not as in “the last week of July is always tough.” As in the last week of July of 2019 is particularly difficult.
Because of the elimination of the August 31 waiver trade deadline, any trade must be consummated on or before July 31. That means that teams have just a few days to decide if they are going to make trades to try to improve their rosters, build for the future, or neither.
And other than a handful of teams, practically no one is more than seven games out of a Wild Card spot. So, are the Padres or Diamondbacks going to have new closers? Are Zack Wheeler or Noah Syndergaard going to move to the AL East and have a much tougher schedule?
With no precedent as to how teams on the periphery of contention will handle the new trade deadline, fantasy owners are mostly flying blind with some critical changes that could impact fantasy values. Because of that, it probably makes the best sense to hold off on any potential deal until next week.
But, to the extent you’re impatient, that’s exactly why we provide the trade chart below. Simply compare the values on both sides of the deal and see which side of the trade comes out on top.
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I’ve written about Jose Ramirez in this article several times this year, mostly about how I was forced to lower his trade value each week because his performance simply was not rebounding. But finally, there are signs.
- Mar/Apr: .557 OPS, 39.3% hard-hit rate
- May: .725 OPS, 35.8% hard-hit rate
- Jun: .620 OPS, 31.8% hard-hit rate
- Jul: .953 OPS, 49.2% hard-hit rate
He already has five homers in the month, as many as he had in each of the three previous months combined. Given the lengthy slump, we can’t call him “back” to his 2018 level. But he’s certainly moving up.
In March and April of this year, Rafael Devers had a .757 OPS with no home runs. Since then, Devers is batting .332 with 20 home runs and a 1.002 OPS. He’s in the top three percent of the league in average exit velocity and expected batting average with nearly a 50% hard-hit rate. Batting second in a strong Red Sox lineup, he should continue to take full advantage
Here are Sonny Gray’s last five starts:
- 6 1/3 innings, two runs, six strikeouts at home against the Cubs
- 8 innings, no runs, 12 strikeouts at home against the Brewers
- 7 innings, one runs, nine strikeouts in Colorado against the Rockies
- 6 innings, two runs, eight strikeouts in Chicago against the Cubs
- 6 innings, one run, seven strikeouts in Milwaukee against the Brewers.
There are so many wonderful things about this stretch. He’s faced three good offenses (considering the Rockies were in Colorado), and faced two very good teams twice in a short time span. He started integrating a curveball, giving him another strong weapon to complement his devastating slider. And most importantly, he’s finally going six innings or more.
With strong strikeout numbers and the ability to avoid disastrous outings (he’s allowed no more than four earned runs in any start, and only allowed four runs twice), he’s flying up in value and should only continue to rise.
The Gurriel brothers are utterly insane. Seriously. Since being recalled on May 24, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is slashing .312/.353/.654 with 18 homers and four steals. But that pales in comparison to Yuli Gurriel‘s numbers since June 23, during which he has slashed .398/.433/929 with 15 homers.
The statcast data isn’t overly in love with what either player is doing, but there’s no denying the numbers, particularly with Yuli, as they come after a change in stance. Both will continue to rise but, as always, a hot month or two cannot entirely negate everything we’ve seen from both players in their careers.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.