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Target Share Leaders & What It Means for 2023 (Fantasy Football)

Target Share Leaders & What It Means for 2023 (Fantasy Football)

Everything we look at for fantasy purposes deals with volume. Running backs often pop from out of nowhere because they inherit a 15+ touch role. The same goes for receivers, as targets equal production and we want to look for condensed offenses. Teams like Miami and Philadelphia had such a narrow distribution of targets that they each had two players account for a great than 50% share of the target market. We also saw some new names pop up as target hogs this year, as Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Christian Kirk all had at least a 25% target share for their respective teams.

As the NFL moves towards a more pass-heavy league, there were only five teams this season that didn’t have a receiver who had at least 100 targets: Chicago, Houston, New England, New York Giants and Tennessee. Of those four, New England is the biggest disappointment offensively as they never did get untracked this season, which cause Jakobi Meyers to flop.

One other theme of this article is that there are a number of teams who are in need of a better alternative at quarterback heading into 2023. Over 1/3 of the league (11 teams) have legitimate question marks at the position, so this will be a busy offseason where the demand is likely to be greater than the supply.

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2023 Fantasy Football Advice: 2022 Target Share Leaders

The Cardinals went to great lengths to help Kyler Murray this year and still managed to underachieve. They traded for Marquise Brown on draft day, bringing in a solid WR2 to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. Then Hopkins missed six games due to suspension for steroids, which forced Brown to step into an alpha receiver role. From Weeks 2-4, Brown was putting up WR1 numbers with a whopping 48 targets for a 34/344/2 line. Brown got injured, which derailed his season more than the return of Hopkins because I don’t get the sense Brown was ever “right” after he got hurt. Brown and the slot receiver combination of Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore (combined 116 targets) should be useful in spots.

With Kliff Kingsbury getting fired and Hopkins likely to be traded, this offense will have a different look next year and Murray will likely get a late start coming off his ACL injury. That said, the discount here could be profitable, especially in best ball leagues where we won’t need Murray to be in peak form right away. If he and Brown can click, both of them could outperform their ADP.

It should hardly come as a surprise that the Falcons ranked 31st in the NFL with just 24.4 pass attempts per game. Neither Marcus Mariota nor Desmond Ridder is a prolific passer (Ridder does have potential) and Arthur Smith prefers to lean on the run. Despite that, Drake London finished the season with 117 targets which tied for 22nd among receivers. London finished with a 27% target share and was particularly strong down the stretch. He averaged 16.7 PPR points per game from Week 12 on, and that was without scoring a single touchdown. He should be set for liftoff next season. Hopefully, we finally get a healthy Kyle Pitts (15% target share) in 2023 as he is just a year removed from a 110 target, 68 catch season.

Baltimore’s target analysis for 2022 is probably best described as being incomplete. Lamar Jackson‘s season ended after 12 games, which left a void that Tyler Huntley simply couldn’t fill. The Ravens dropped three of their last five games, failing to score over 20 points in a single one. Baltimore surpassed more than 200 passing yards in just one of those five games as well, and that was a Week 18 blowout loss to the Bengals where Anthony Brown passed for 276 yards with mostly backups.

As you might imagine, the Ravens had one of the worst PROEs in the league and finished 28th in attempts per game. Mark Andrews lead Baltimore in targets with 113 (24.3% share), but after his monster 2021 campaign and early third-round ADP, he disappointed this season. Andrews is still one of the top tight ends in the NFL, but he will need a more significant volume share to get back in the same stratosphere as Travis Kelce. This is a big offseason for Baltimore, as they have to determine what to do with Jackson and his pending contract dispute. Assuming he is back (no sure thing), the Ravens should once again skew more run-heavy. This leaves Andrews and promising rookie Rashod Bateman (28 targets in six games) as the primary pass catchers here. Bateman’s emergence was cut short by injury this year, making him a viable sleeper candidate heading into 2023.

In what has become the standard in Buffalo, Stefon Diggs was the object of Josh Allen‘s passing game affection once again this season. Diggs commanded a 26.5% target share, ranking in the top five in the NFL. He also scored a career-best 11 touchdowns to go along with over 1,400 yards receiving, making him an elite option at receiver. As good as Diggs was, he lost some steam in the preseason to Gabe Davis, who was coming off a historic performance in the AFC Championship last January. Davis finished with career highs in target share (15%), catches (48) and yards (836) but his season-long statistics were a disappointment relative to his ADP. Davis never quite took off the way some predicted him to, making him more of a WR3/WR4 option for fantasy. Finally, Dawson Knox was steady once again but his volume (17th among tight ends in targets) makes him difficult to trust on a weekly basis. He will be a mid-range TE2 next year.

Carolina’s receiving corps was DJ Moore and everyone else in 2022. Moore’s 27% target share was elite but his production was a victim of Carolina’s low-volume passing game. Moore only tallied 63 catches for 888 yards, the lowest totals he has had since his rookie season. The good news is that he finally had some positive touchdown regression, hauling in seven scores. Carolina has a lot of holes on its roster, but they have a legitimate WR1 in Moore. They just need to find someone to get him the ball consistently. Terrace Marshall (11% target share) flashed at times and has plenty of ability, but needs to be more consistent. The Panthers will likely bring in another receiver this offseason to pair with Moore.

While Justin Fields made strides this year, Chicago attempted the fewest passes in the NFL. This made their pass catchers mostly unappealing for fantasy purposes outside of Cole Kmet’s Week 9 performance. Kmet led the team with 69 targets for a 19% target share, which tells you all you need to know here. The loss of Darnell Mooney hurt, but with just over 24 pass attempts per game, there isn’t enough volume for any of them to matter. Just one other note: The Bears traded their second-round pick for Chase Claypool, who had 29 targets over seven games with Chicago. There is a lot of work to be done but the Bears have a lot of cap space so I would expect them to get Fields some help. From a fantasy perspective, however, they will be mostly off my radar.

The Bengals are positioned as well as any team in the NFL offensively. Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback and he has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. Ja’Marr Chase is the alpha receiver here, and despite missing five games, he led Cincinnati with 134 targets (22% share) this year. Chase averaged 10.1 targets per game, which was fifth-best in the league. Without the injury, he was on pace to blow past his rookie numbers and he actually had more catches this season (87) than he did as a rookie in 2021. I think there is a case to be made for him going ahead of Cooper Kupp in drafts next year as he is as close to Justin Jefferson as one can be.

Tee Higgins would be the WR1 on a lot of teams. For Cincinnati, he is Robin to Chase’s Batman. I think the most remarkable thing about Higgins is his consistency, as his target counts through his first three seasons look like this: 108, 110, 109. You can take it to the bank that Higgins is going to get 100+ targets and over 1,000 yards in a given year. He is also able to shoulder the load when Chase is out, which makes him a great real-life asset for the Bengals as well. Finally, Joe Mixon’s 75 targets were a career-high despite him playing in 14 games. If the Bengals continue with that type of target share (12%) for him, he will be a value if he is drafted anywhere outside of the top-five running backs.

Amari Cooper filled a big need for the Browns this year, becoming the first Cleveland receiver to go over 1,000 yards since 2019. Cooper’s 132 targets ranked 16th among receivers, as he had one of his best statistical seasons as a pro. That said, the Deshaun Watson experience didn’t go quite as smoothly as expected so I am betting against Cooper producing significantly better numbers in 2023. He should be priced appropriately relative to ADP this summer.

The Cleveland receiver who broke out this year is Donovan Peoples-Jones. He finished second on the team with 96 targets, a career-high. He also finished with eight games of at least five receptions or 50 yards this year. He and David Njoku (80 targets) team with Cooper to form a fine trio for Watson to work with. Assuming there isn’t a major overhaul of the coaching staff in the offseason, this could be a sneaky good offense to invest in next year.

A look at the Dallas target charts from 2022, there are a few important takeaways. CeeDee Lamb (28% target share) officially ascended into the elite tier as his 154 targets ranked fourth in the league. Lamb finished with a career-best 107 receptions (fourth among receivers) and 1,359 yards and embraced the alpha receiver role after Amari Cooper was shipped off last spring. Lamb is somehow still underrated, which is remarkable considering he plays for Dallas. If he manages to ascend one step further next year, we will be discussing him in the same breath as Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. Speaking of ascension, Noah Brown’s 75 targets are nearly three times as many as he has had in any season prior to 2022. He is set to become a free agent and could cash in somewhere else as the Cowboys will have a tough time resigning him. His pending departure will be softened by Michael Gallup (74 targets) getting to full speed to begin 2023.

The other takeaway for the Cowboys is that Ezekiel Elliott is absent from this chart. Tony Pollard passed him up this year as Dallas made the decision to use Pollard more. While his 39 receptions were identical to what he had in ’21, he did bump his target share (10%) and went over 1,300 total yards, which is a career-best. Dallas can’t get out from under Elliott’s contract next year so I don’t think Pollard is going to make some leap into the tier of elite running backs but he is inching closer. I think Dallas as a whole left some meat on the bone this year offensively and I will gladly take CeeDee anywhere in the late-first/early-second round range next year.

In DFS, we often look for condensed offenses to target. The Broncos, despite all their struggles this year, have a fairly condensed offense. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton combined for an almost 40% target share and 38% of the receptions for Denver, and there wasn’t another player who with 45 targets of either player. This will probably sound crazy but I don’t think I would be all the way out on the Broncos next year. Russell Wilson showed some signs of life after Nathaniel Hackett was fired and if he can build on that heading into next year, I don’t think it is out of the question that he can support Sutton and Jeudy at WR2ish levels. A lot of what happens here will depend on who Denver brings in as their head coach, but if Wilson bounces back at all, this entire group will be underpriced heading into 2023. There is risk here, of course, but Sutton and Jeudy are both legitimately talented players who should bounce back.

Our Lions were a fantasy dream this year, both on offense and in allowing big performances to opposing teams on defense. Detroit’s passing game took a giant step forward this year with Amon-Ra St. Brown being the primary beneficiary. The Sun God bumped his target share up to 25% from a 20% share in 2021, hauling in over 100 passes and going over 1,000 yards for the first time. St. Brown primarily thrives on volume (6.2 aDOT) but in getting peppered with 146 targets, he finished as a WR1 in PPR scoring. The rest of the Detroit receiving corps lagged far behind, making D’Andre Swift the second most-targeted Lion in this offense. I would put Swift in the Tony Pollard category: He is inching towards being a legitimate RB1 in a PPR league, but he needs a full year of good health to do so. Swift will remain heavily involved in Detroit’s passing game next year but the Lions will need Jeff Goff to continue his improved play and D.J. Chark to be more consistent for this offense to keep pace with its 2022 stats.

The Packers are a team with a lot of uncertainty heading into the off-season. Aaron Rodgers is no sure bet to return and it also appears as if Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard may have played their last game in Green Bay. The departure of Lazard (100 targets) would seemingly open the door for Christian Watson to blast off. Watson had quite the stretch in November, scoring seven touchdowns in four games. He will look to bump his 12% target share next year and become a more consistent option here. The same thing applies to Romeo Doubs (67 targets), who showed flashes in limited opportunities. There are a lot of question marks here, however, and we probably won’t have a clear picture until closer to the draft. Cautiously, I am still in on Aaron Jones (72 targets), AJ Dillon and Watson because this could turn into a condensed offense for 2023.

The Texans were dreadful offensively this year, failing to produce a 1,000-yard runner or receiver. Brandin Cooks, who is typically as reliable as they come, suffered through a miserable year. Despite leading the team with 93 targets, Cooks only mustered 699 yards receiving and his 53 yards per game was the second-lowest mark of his career. There will be a lot of turnover in Houston this offseason and I anticipate a new quarterback to be part of the equation. Despite that, 2023 is looking like a year where Houston continues to experience growing pains offensively as they are a couple of years away from being a functionally competitive team.

Michael Pittman deserved better this year. He bumped up his targets to 141 and moved to the borderline elite tier with a 24% target share on the year, amassing 99 receptions along the way. However, he recorded fewer yards and touchdowns which made for a bumpy ride in fantasy. Far too often Pittman was underwhelming due to poor quarterback play and game plan issues that plagued the Colts all year. Pittman should continue to dominate targets in this offense, as he has proven himself to be on the cusp of the WR1 conversation for fantasy purposes. The Colts do have some intriguing pieces outside of Pittman in Parris Campbell (91 targets) and rookie Alec Pierce (78), both of whom had bright spots this year. Campbell, in particular, took a massive leap and finally flashed some of the promise he showed at Ohio State. With a healthy Jonathan Taylor, this offense is a quarterback away from having some intriguing fantasy pieces in 2023.

One of the most pleasant surprises of the 2022 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense made major strides as a unit this year. Trevor Lawrence blossomed under the guidance of Doug Pederson, which raised the level of play of guys like Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Engram (98 targets) bounced back from a horrible 2021 to become a top-10 tight end. He also came up big during the fantasy playoffs, finishing with a 26/337/2 line from Weeks 14-16. Jones had a career season, as his 121 targets were a career-high and he finished with 82 receptions for over 800 yards. Those two were both underrated free agency signings that now team with Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne to give the Jaguars one of the best young cores in football.

Kirk continued his upward trajectory, finishing with 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. His 133 targets and 23% target share are both indicative of the trust he built with Lawrence this year. Etienne (45 targets) is looking like one of the best young running backs in the NFL, as he finished with over 1,400 yards. In theory, we can reasonably project Etienne to see increased usage there next year but the Jaguars could choose to limit his touches in games where they aren’t trailing. Jacksonville will be adding Calvin Ridley to the fold, which further clouds the target outlook here for 2023. Obviously, the biggest winner here will be Lawrence, who appears poised to take another step with an ample number of weapons at his disposal.

Any discussion about who the top quarterback in the NFL is should begin with Patrick Mahomes. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, Mahomes put up his best season and led the Chiefs to the No. 1 Seed in the AFC. Kansas City’s offense is a thing of beauty, mostly because of Andy Reid’s ability to be a chameleon each week. The Chiefs scheme the ball to their playmakers in so many creative ways to get mismatches that guys like Travis Kelce and Jerick McKinnon can consistently win. Kelce had arguably the most dominant fantasy season in history when taken in the context of his position. Kelce was the only tight end to eclipse 1,000 yards this season and his 152 targets ranked sixth in the league regardless of position. There is a legitimate argument one could make for Kelce going No. 1 overall in a redraft league next year. The only downside there is that he turns 34 next October, but he gives you such a positional advantage each week that it is worth considering.

McKinnon’s emergence is a win for anyone who ever looked at his SPARQ score. His 71 targets were a career-high as were his nine receiving touchdowns. McKinnon, like Kadarius Toney, is the type of acquisition the Chiefs make and take advantage of to keep this engine humming. They do a better job of putting these jitterbugs in space and allowing them to make plays than any other team in the NFL. Finally, while JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t come close to replacing Hill’s production, he was solid this year and he looks comfortable with his role in this offense. As long as you draft Smith-Schuster next year knowing he isn’t going to be much more than a WR2 (and probably closer to a WR3), you can be confident drafting him at his ADP.

Justin Herbert had 699 attempts this season, which ranked second in the league. Given that, it makes sense that the Chargers had five players with 87 or more targets. What doesn’t make sense is that the Chargers failed to produce a 1,000-yard receiver in the process. Herbert averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt and he was oddly handcuffed by a conservative passing game this year. While that is good news for Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, it hampered Mike Williams. In fairness, Williams missed four games with an injury and he was on pace to hit the 1,000-yard mark, but hopefully, the Chargers push the ball downfield more often next season.

Ekeler was superb once again this year, hauling in 107 passes and leading the team with 127 targets, making him a cheat code in PPR leagues. To put it in perspective, if you take out Ekeler’s rushing statistics, he would still be an RB2. Injuries to Williams and Allen forced Ekeler to be the focal point of the offense most weeks and he was arguably fantasy’s most valuable running back. In a world where we have to scrape to find true workhorses, Ekeler’s production is elite. I would buy a bounceback for Williams next year but it is getting more difficult to consider Allen truly elite. He is a volume-based option that needs 10+ targets a week and that type of target share isn’t there anymore. He will be someone I avoid in 2023.


The Rams were derailed by injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp this year, which turned their offense into a shell of itself. Allen Robinson was a massive disappointment as well, so there was a lot that went wrong. Now they head into an uncertain future with Sean McVay and minimal draft capital to put things back together. The good news is that Stafford and Kupp will return next year. Kupp was on pace for over 180 targets and would have been nipping at Justin Jefferson’s heels for the overall WR1 crown. Kupp may come at a discount due to his injury next year and if slips to the second round, he will be a smash value.

Davante Adams had a 32% target share this year and was peppered by both Derek Carr and Jarrett Stidham. I am not going to knock Adams down too much based on the quarterback situation but it is obviously worth monitoring this offseason. There are a lot of questions about the Raiders outside of Adams, however. Besides the departure of Carr, Josh Jacobs (50 targets) and Mack Hollins (94 targets) are both set to be free agents, which would open up roughly 25% of the Raiders’ targets for next year. I think we can expect Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to soak up a lot of that work but neither one of those two played particularly well this year. They both have massive cap numbers for next season, however, so Las Vegas can’t move on from them. Outside of Adams, I won’t have much interest in any Raiders pieces barring them bringing in a better quarterback option than Stidham.

The second most condensed passing game in the NFL, the Dolphins targeted Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on over 51% of their pass attempts. Hill’s volume actually increased this year as his 170 targets, 119 receptions and 1,710 yards were all career highs. There isn’t much else to say about him and he is one of the league’s best receivers. Waddle saw his targets and receptions decrease dramatically from 2021 numbers, no surprise given the addition of the target-hogging Hill. Waddle did go over 1,300 receiving yards (an increase of over 300 yards from his rookie season) and averaged an absurd 18.1 yards per catch. Mike McDaniel did a tremendous job of scheming Hill and Waddle into situations where their yards after the catch prowess would lead to chunk plays. Hill will be a top-10 selection next summer while Waddle should settle somewhere in the third or fourth-round range. Both receivers are good targets at their ADP. The other Miami options are non-entities in the passing game and can largely ignored.

The Vikings’ target chart needs some context but let’s get this out of the way: Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in football. His 184 targets led the league and he was within striking distance of Calvin Johnson’s single-season record for receiving yards. He missed the Triple Crown by one category (touchdowns) and the dud he threw up in Week 17 notwithstanding, Jefferson was a league winner in every sense of the word. The Vikings did well adding TJ Hockenson at the trade deadline, and he finished as the overall TE2. He amassed 86 targets in 10 games with Minnesota, which puts him on pace for 146 on the season. Hockenson is the clear No. 2 option in this passing game and should be in his own tier below Travis Kelce as TE rankings go. Generally speaking, the Vikings are in a good place offensively. If K.J. Osborn (90 targets) continues to ascend, that will make them all the more dangerous next year. They will just need consistent play out of Kirk Cousins to make things go.

New England might have had the most evenly distributed target share in the league. Outside of Jakobi Meyers and Rhamondre Stevenson, no other receiver had greater than an 11% target share. As you can see from the charts above, the Patriots had five receivers that were all within the 45-59 target range as well. This makes for a terrible situation for fantasy and outside of Stevenson (88 targets), there wasn’t a single Patriot who was worth rostering. Meyers took a step back this year and is more of a complimentary piece than an alpha receiver. Trying to pick between the others was an exercise in futility that isn’t worth the headache. Even if New England brings in someone like DeAndre Hopkins, I am skeptical that Mac Jones can support a fantasy-relevant receiver. I’ll be out on most every New England piece next year except for Stevenson.

This season was a disaster in New Orleans, but the good news is that they have a potential star in Chris Olave. He finished his rookie season with 119 targets for a borderline elite 24% target share. He had four games with double-digit targets and another two where he was targeted nine times, so I am anticipating that Olave will be drafted in the top 20 of the position next season. The trouble here is the Saints did not have much else in the passing game. After beginning his career with four straight seasons of 80+ receptions, Alvin Kamara failed to top 60 catches for the second straight year. He is being used more in the mold of a classic runner without the touchdown equity inside the 10-yard line, which isn’t what you are drafting Kamara for. If you want one other bright spot, tight end Juwan Johnson (65 targets) had a mini-breakout season in his third year. He finished as the TE15 but if he sees a 15% increase in targets next year, he will be a top-12 option. Johnson could come at a bargain price next season and I’d be inclined to take a flyer late in drafts.

Despite making the playoffs, the Giants have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, which makes what Brian Daboll (and Daniel Jones) did this year all the more impressive. Jones finished as a QB1 throwing to Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins and Daniel Bellinger. Jones is a free agent but his best bet is to resign with the Giants because Daboll will give him the best chance to succeed. While Saquon Barkley (76 targets) was looking like the overall RB1 for large portions of the year, this team needs to bring in some skill-position help this offseason.

Garrett Wilson should enter 2023 with more helium than any other receiver. Wilson finished as the WR21 despite being eighth in targets with 147, so if the Jets bring in a quarterback that is competent, look out. Wilson is a stud who competes on every single play, something the Jets need more of. While Wilson’s emergence was a bright spot, Elijah Moore was a major disappointment this year, finishing with just 65 targets. Moore was involved in a lot of drama early in the season and he finished with fewer catches, yards, and touchdowns than he did as a rookie. New York needs him to be a complimentary piece to Wilson, and Moore has the skill to do that. The question is whether he can put it all together. This offense could use another playmaker in the offseason but addressing the QB position is the biggest need.

The Eagles have the most condensed passing game in the NFL, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith soaking up over 55% of the targets for the year. Brown’s impact on this offense went above and beyond expectations but the inverse of that is true as well. Brown established career highs across the board statistically and he put himself in the elite tier of receivers this year. I don’t think anyone in Philadelphia could have envisioned things going as well as they did but he took this offense to the next level. His arrival was also a big boost to Devonta Smith, who took advantage of the increased attention on Brown, hauling in 95 passes on 136 targets. With Jalen Hurts making strides as a passer, Philadelphia is well-positioned to be an elite offense in 2023. Hurts looked like the fantasy MVP prior to injuring his shoulder and I would be comfortable ranking him as the QB2 behind Patrick Mahomes.

The Steelers finished their 2022 season with a 7-2 run that almost put them in the playoffs. Kenny Pickett improved down the stretch and while he still has a lot of room for improvement, there are positive signs to point toward here. The midseason trade of Chase Claypool netted the Steelers the 32nd overall pick in the draft but also gave George Pickens the opportunity to play on 80% of the snaps. Pickens finished third on the team with 84 targets but he averaged 15.1 yards per catch and made some tremendous plays late in the season. If Pittsburgh can find a way to get him 100 targets next year, he should go over 1,000 yards.

Of course, Diontae Johnson will be back next year and he should be one of the better values in fantasy after a mildly disappointing 2022 season. Johnson failed to catch a touchdown despite getting 147 targets and 86 receptions, the latter of which is an NFL record. Johnson is still one of the best route runners in football and with Pickett’s likely improvement, he should benefit next season as well. The Steelers feel like they could be a sneaky team to target in drafts next year although if Matt Canada is still around as offensive coordinator, this could all prove to be more hope than reality.

After throwing for over 4200 yards and 30 touchdowns, Geno Smith should be among the favorites for Comeback Player of the Year. Smith’s solid play ensured Seattle’s passing game didn’t fall off at all with the trade of Russell Wilson. In fact, DK Metcalf set a career-high with 141 targets and 90 receptions and Tyler Lockett was as steady as ever, going over 1,000 yards for the fourth straight year. The biggest change here is that Metcalf was used more like a possession receiver (he averaged a career-low 11.6 YPC) and only scored six touchdowns. Seattle needs to find a happy medium with Metcalf where he gets 140+ targets but gets some shots downfield and in the red zone. While the ancillary pieces here did not put up mind-blowing stats, Seattle has a young core that can grow together. Kenneth Walker should be more involved in the passing game moving forward, so I would anticipate a slight bump to his 35 targets. If he can settle somewhere in the 48-55 range, that would push him into RB1 territory.

The 49ers were ravaged by injuries this year for what seems like the hundredth time. They lost Trey Lance in Week 2 and then Jimmy Garoppolo in their 11th game. Enter rookie Brock Purdy, the 262nd pick of the 2022 Draft, to keep the 49ers moving. Purdy was outstanding down the stretch, throwing for at least two touchdowns in each of his last six games. His steady play, combined with the newly acquired Christian McCaffery being his dominant self, helped the 49ers to a 13-4 record and an NFC West title. Of course, having a weapon like McCaffery can be a great equalizer, and Kyle Shanahan used McCaffery in the best way possible. McCaffery averaged over six targets per game with San Francisco but he was also removed from games late once the 49ers had things wrapped up.

At receiver, Brandon Aiyuk continues to be an underrated asset who is one of the best route runners in the business. He had his first 1,000-yard season as a pro as he was forced into an alpha role with Deebo Samuel being banged up and defenses focusing extra attention on George Kittle. Now all of those weapons are healthy and San Francisco enters the playoffs with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. If they manage to make it to Glendale with Purdy running the show, they will have an interesting offseason to determine what to do with Lance. No matter who is under center to begin 2023, San Francisco has the nucleus of this offense back next year. I anticipate McCaffery being the consensus No. 1 overall pick but that the other pieces here won’t be as highly touted.

Tom Brady once again led the league in attempts, throwing a whopping 733 passes. Given that, it is no surprise that both Chris Godwin (142) and Mike Evans (127) went over 100 targets. Godwin set a career-high with 104 receptions but it came at a cost as his 9.8 yards per catch were a career low. Given the questions surrounding Brady’s return to Tampa Bay in 2023, I have some concerns with Godwin. It is unlikely the Buccaneers would want a lesser quarterback to drop back over 700 times, so Godwin’s volume could take a hit. If that happens, he may struggle to get to 1,000 yards (think Diontae Johnson in 2022) and disappoint next year. For Evans, he registered his ninth straight 1,000-yard season as he continues to ball out.

A couple of other takeaways here to note include the volume of which the running backs were targeted. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White combined for 121 targets, which made both of them options in PPR leagues. White had some big weeks when he had the backfield to himself and he is a legitimate talent who can produce no matter who is taking snaps next year. I anticipate Fournette moving on this offseason and his landing spot will determine his fantasy worth in 2023.

Tennessee’s low-volume passing game is what we’ve come to expect with Mike Vrabel but they sunk to new lows this year. Their leading receiver was Robert Woods, who finished with just 53 catches for 527 yards on 91 targets. Tennessee finished the year with Joshua Dobbs starting at quarterback, making the selection of Malik Willis as their potential quarterback of the future look shaky. It does appear that Treylon Burks has the potential to be an above-average receiver while Chigoziem Okonkwo played well down the stretch at tight end. Tennessee will probably look to ride Derrick Henry for one more season, but the winds of change will need to blow here at some point. Finding a competent quarterback should be the priority here.

Considering the Commanders had to suffer through seven Carson Wentz starts this year, there are some bright spots. Terry McLaurin saw fewer targets (120) this year but still managed to have more receiving yards than he did in 2021. McLaurin really clicked with Taylor Heinicke, who gave a big boost to McLaurin’s fantasy outlook for the nine weeks that he was named the starter. Why or how Wentz never locked on McLaurin is a mystery but that is part of why he will be out of a job this offseason. Curtis Samuel had a big bounce back from a forgettable 2021 season, finishing second on the team with 92 targets and 64 receptions. He will ultimately be passed by Jahan Dotson, who led the team with seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions. Dotson should slide into the WR2 role next year and could be primed for a big season if the Commanders can find a quarterback (sense a theme there?).

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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.

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