The Primer: Week 7 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Total: 47.0
Line: DET by 3.0

QBs
Matthew Stafford: It was a tough time for the Lions to have a bye week, as they’d seemingly found their groove on offense, and Stafford had thrown at least two touchdowns in four straight games. The reason he hasn’t put up massive fantasy performances, however, is due to the lack of competition, which has led to fewer pass attempts. After throwing the ball 99 times over the first two games, Stafford totaled just 92 pass attempts over his last three games. Because of that, his best fantasy finish was QB9 against the 49ers. Do the Dolphins present so much of a threat that we’ll see him throw more? They’ve scored at least 27 points in three of their six games, so it’s possible. The issue is that their pass defense is much better than most expected. The addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick and return of Reshad Jones combined with Xavien Howard makes for one heck of a secondary. Their run defense has been the area to attack, and it’s the reason they’ve allowed just one top-15 quarterback on the season (Mitch Trubisky last week). Both Tom Brady and Andy Dalton were among those who didn’t, so it’s not just a walk all over them type of matchup. Stafford should be considered a low-end QB1 in this matchup whose ceiling isn’t as high as some might think.

Brock Osweiler or Ryan Tannehill: It’s unlikely we know about which quarterback will start until later in the week, but we’re going to approach it as if Osweiler will because Tannehill wouldn’t be able to be trusted even if he did suit up. The Lions have been a matchup to target in fantasy, as they’ve allowed a 6.6 percent touchdown rate to quarterbacks this year, which ranks as the fourth-highest behind only the Bucs, Falcons, and Raiders. We’ve only seen one quarterback throw the ball more than 27 times against them, though, so it’s not going to be a high-volume game for Osweiler. A lot of the damage done against the Bears came after the catch, as just 26.3 percent of his yards came through the air, which was the second-lowest in the NFL for Week 6. It’s not a terrible matchup, but I’m not going to bank on Osweiler to have back-to-back usable fantasy performances. He’s on the low-end QB2 radar, though.

RBs
Kerryon Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, and Theo Riddick: Did the bye week change anything for the Lions backfield? Likely not considering Blount is coming off a two-touchdown game before their bye week. Nevermind those 2.5 yards per carry on the season (eye roll). Johnson also rolled his ankle towards the end of the game, but he did say he could’ve gone back if needed. This is an important backfield to get right, as the Dolphins have now allowed at least 22.8 PPR points to every backfield they’ve played, including 32.8 or more points in three of their last four games. That’s a lot of production, though it’s not likely we see one running back get the majority of it. Even Johnson himself has said that he’s best-suited for a timeshare the other week, which will obviously limit his ceiling. Looking at the snaps of their last game, Johnson played 29, Riddick 19, and Blount 18. The Dolphins have allowed points in a variety of ways, too, as they’ve allowed five rushing touchdowns, three receiving touchdowns, and there’s been five different running backs who’ve tallied at least 35 receiving yards. Johnson should be in the RB2 conversation, but it’s tough to say he’ll win a tournament with the way they use Blount. Riddick will have more value in games that turn into shootouts, though this shouldn’t be on of them, making him just a weak RB4 in PPR formats. Blount wouldn’t be in any of my lineups as a legitimate touchdown-or-zero option, but the matchup gives him a 50/50 shot to do so. Update: Riddick has been ruled out for this game, giving Johnson even more appeal, particularly in PPR formats. 

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: The timeshare must go on… Gore has played his way into the lineup and he’s looked really good over the last few weeks in tough matchups. The Bears hadn’t allowed a running back more than 47 yards on the ground prior to Gore carving them up for 101 yards on 15 carries. His carries have risen each of the last four games from 6, 11, 12, and 15. Meanwhile, Drake is still playing plenty of snaps, as he’s been on the field for at least 62 percent of the snaps the last two weeks. The Lions run defense hasn’t been a bright spot, either, as they’ve allowed 3-of-5 running backs top 100 rushing yards against them. There’s been just one week where the opposing team of running backs didn’t score at least 24.6 PPR points, and it was a similar backfield to this one (Packers). All five teams have averaged at least 4.83 yards per carry against them, so volume is the only thing that can limit production. Gore should be considered a high-floor RB3 this week, while Drake is also in the RB3 range, though he comes with a bit more volatility.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: We’re about one-third through the Lions season and Golladay has seen eight more targets than Jones, while hauling in 187 more yards than him. He’s the Lions No. 1 receiver until proven otherwise. While Tate has his role, it doesn’t affect Golladay/Jones. The question, however, is whether the Dolphins view Golladay as the No. 1 receiver who deserves Xavien Howard‘s shadow treatment. My guess would be no and that they choose to play sides. That means he’d see Howard about half the time, while he’d match-up with either Bobby McCain or Torry McTyer the others. McCain was apparently close to playing last week, but if he should miss another week, it’d be a big upgrade to both Golladay and Jones. Assuming he plays, Golladay should be considered a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, as the Dolphins have allowed just one top-20 wide receiver this year (Jordy Nelson who was left uncovered on multiple occasions). If McCain is held out, it would most definitely upgrade him into must-play status.

Marvin Jones: As mentioned in the Golladay paragraph, Jones is clearly behind him in the pecking order this year. He’s seen eight fewer targets and has totaled 187 fewer yards than the second-year phenom. They’ve both scored three times, so they’re both fantasy viable, but Jones being third in target distribution is an issue for his consistency. He’s seen six or less targets in each of his last three games and he’s still yet to finish a game with more than 69 yards. The Dolphins cornerbacks have allowed five wide receivers top 80 yards against them, though four of them saw at least eight targets in the game. The only one who didn’t was Taylor Gabriel who caught all five of his targets for 110 yards while Bobby McCain was out of the lineup. He’s on track to return this week, so Jones is going to need some more volume to produce. There’s been just one quarterback who’s hit 40 attempts against the Dolphins, so it’s unlikely we see a dramatic change in Jones’ target output. If the Dolphins decide to shadow Golladay with Xavien Howard, it’d be Jones who’d benefit, though it’s not guarantee they’ll do that. Jones should be considered a low-end WR3 who needs to find the end zone for the fourth time in five games.

Golden Tate: There have been 42 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of their snaps in the slot. The Dolphins slot cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick has ranked as the second-best one, allowing just a 46.8 QB Rating in his coverage. This is really an unsustainable pace, as quarterbacks historically have a much higher QB Rating when targeting the slot, but he’s been phenomenal and well worth the first-round pick the Dolphins spent on him. He’s really been the only one to keep Tyler Boyd in check this year, as Boyd finished with just 4/44/0 on seven targets two weeks ago. The Dolphins getting Reshad Jones back at safety was huge, as Fitzpatrick was helping out at safety for a few weeks, and his backup wasn’t doing a very good job. This is easily the toughest matchup Tate’s had this year, as he’s gone against Buster Skrine (ninth-highest QB Rating allowed in slot), K’Waun Williams (20th), Jonathan Jones (26th), Anthony Brown (27th), and Josh Jackson (15th) in his five games. He’s still averaging over 10 targets per game so you’re starting him as a high-end WR3, but don’t expect a massive performance this week.

Albert Wilson: What in the world got into Wilson last week? If you missed that game, 138 of his 155 yards came after the catch, as he maneuvered his way through the Bears secondary with ease. After playing less than 55 percent of the snaps in each of the first three games, he’s now played at least 63.3 percent of the snaps in each of the last three games, making him the wide receiver to own in Miami. With 21 targets in the last three games, he’s suddenly leading the team in that category and DeVante Parker played just five snaps in their Week 6 win, so he’s a non-factor. The Lions secondary has been decent this year, allowing just one wide receiver to hit the century mark and that was Davante Adams, who essentially does that against everyone, though he also saw 12 targets that game. We can’t forget that Wilson has totaled less than 45 yards in 4-of-6 games this year after one good performance, but we also have to take notice of his increased role in the offense. He moves all over the formation, running 33 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he’ll evade Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson at times, but the odds are against him posting another massive week. He’s on the WR4 radar, though, as the Dolphins best play at wide receiver right now.

Kenny Stills: After his 106-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 1, Stills has compiled just 11 receptions for 170 yards and one touchdown. That’s… not great. He saw a season-low two targets last week with Osweiler under center and it makes sense considering Osweiler isn’t one to take many shots down the field, likely because his accuracy doesn’t allow him to. Stills’ average depth of target on the season is 19.4 yards, second to only John Brown, but Osweiler’s 6.3 intended air yards per pass doesn’t exactly fit that. For those who are wondering, that was the fourth-lowest mark among quarterbacks in Week 6. Stills will see a mix of Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson, who are both solid cornerbacks, as Slay has been a Pro Bowler. The area Stills can exploit is if the Lions safety Quandre Diggs is held out with a broken hand, and even his backup Tavon Wilson is dinged up with a back injury. That would leave this year’s third-round pick Tracy Walker back there and we all know rookie safeties aren’t exactly a sure thing. But even so, Stills is nothing more than a hail mary WR5/6 in this game.

Danny Amendola: With Tannehill out of the lineup, Amendola saw a season-high 11 targets against the Bears, hauling in eight of them for 59 yards. While it’s not great, it’s also not bad for those looking at a bye week filler option in PPR formats. As mentioned in Stills’ paragraph, Osweiler averaged just 6.3 intended air yards per attempt and had 73.7 percent of his yardage come after the catch. The Lions slot cornerback Jamal Agnew hadn’t been very good and is now on injured reserve, leading them to play Cre’von LeBlanc and Teez Tabor before the bye week. They’ll likely go with Tabor, as he’s the home-grown product, and LeBlanc was signed off the practice squad. Because of the uncertainty, Amendola should be considered a high-floor WR4/5 option in PPR leagues.

TEs
Luke Willson: After letting go of Eric Ebron and signing Willson, we figured he would’ve seen somewhere close to the targets Ebron was getting, but no… Through five games he’s seen just seven targets. In fact, the entire team of Lions tight ends has totaled just 65 yards and one touchdown. The Dolphins haven’t been a team to target with tight ends either, as they’ve allowed just one touchdown on the season. Stay away from Lions tight ends unless you’re in a 3TE league.

Mike Gesicki: It seemed like everything was moving in the right direction for Gesicki who saw a season-high five targets in Week 5, but then he essentially split the snaps 50/50 with Nick O’Leary in Week 6, who scored a touchdown and out-targeted Gesicki four to two. Gesicki has still yet to find the end zone and it’s not going to help that A.J. Derby is due back any week. This is not an offense that will generate a whole lot of points to tight ends, making Gesicki a weak option among streamers. The Lions have yet to allow more than 9.9 standard fantasy points to a tight end, and even when looking at PPR leagues, they’ve yet to allow one more than 13.6 points. Keep in mind they’ve played Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and George Kittle. Gesicki should be on waiver wires right now.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 49.5
Line: BAL by 2.5

QBs
Drew Brees: In my weekly buy/sell/hold piece for the site, I listed Brees as a sell considering the defense has started to come around and the run-game will severely cap his upside the way it did last year. Not to say Brees is unplayable or anything, but rather saying he’s not going to remain the No. 2 quarterback in points per game. He’ll head out on the road this week to play outdoors against the Ravens in Week 7, which has been a task for opposing quarterbacks the last 18 games, as they’ve allowed just 3,611 passing yards in those games, or 200.6 per game. Their secondary has welcomed Jimmy Smith back last week, which adds to an already dangerous group of Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphrey. The 2.80 percent touchdown rate they’ve allowed through six games is the second-lowest in the league, behind only the Jaguars. Last year, that number was just 2.99 percent, so it’s no fluke. Since 2015 (figured three years was a solid sample size and relevant), Brees has averaged 22.1 points on the road while throwing 39.5 attempts, compared to 27.9 points per game while throwing 38.5 attempts at home. It’s not Ben Roethlisberger nightmare-type splits, but it’s not great over a 52-game sample. Outside of the rare Thursday road game against Andy Dalton, the Ravens have allowed two passing touchdowns in the other five games. Brees still remains on the QB1 radar because the run-game isn’t going to pounce on the Ravens run defense, but he’s towards the low-end of the conversation.

Joe Flacco: Now that we’re six games into the season, we’re back to our normally scheduled program with Flacco back as the No. 21 quarterback in fantasy scoring. To be fair, it’s been a very high scoring year for quarterbacks, as his 16.7 points per game would’ve been No. 13 last year. After throwing five touchdowns the first two weeks, he’s simmered down and thrown four of them over the last four weeks despite a somewhat favorable schedule. There are many who will say Flacco is one of the best streamers this week, though I’m not sure I’d subscribe to him as a sure thing. The Saints defense had been brutal through the first three weeks allowing 10 passing scores and 11.2 yards per attempt, to just one passing touchdown and 6.6 yards per attempt the last two weeks. It’s not as if they played Josh Allen, either. They made Alex Smith look as bad as he ever has (bounced back in Week 6 against the Panthers) and Eli Manning was… well… Eli Manning. But still, the defense we saw the first three weeks would’ve allowed 30-plus points to almost anyone, and they’ve now allowed just 37 combined points the last two games. They’re also coming off their bye week which should’ve given them time to regroup and become the defense we expected them to be. They have generated three sacks in each of their last four games, so I don’t think this is a cakewalk for Flacco. He’s a middling QB2 and one who could disappoint if the Saints are the defense we thought they were.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: There are many panicking about Kamara with Ingram back, so I’ll post the same chart I did two weeks ago with them to help ease your nerves…

As you can clearly see, both running backs were able to perform on a weekly basis. Week 5 was the first time Kamara has finished outside the top-22 (outside being hurt) with Ingram on the field. It was likely a combination of Ingram fresh and Kamara coming off a career-high 19 carries the prior week. The two will split the work, though it’ll be Ingram who’s more volatile from week-to-week (as evidence above). The Ravens aren’t a team you can pick on with the run, as they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs through six weeks. They’ve also lacked elite competition, as they’ve played the Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Steelers, Browns, and Titans. Still, to not slip up against anyone is extremely hard to do, as there’s yet to be a running back who’s scored 13 PPR points against them. In fact, they haven’t allowed an entire team more than 24.2 PPR points in a single game. Still, Brees forces defenses to remain honest. It’s hard to see both Kamara and Ingram both posting top-12 numbers this week, but you have to start them. Of the two, I’d prefer Kamara who’ll get more done through the air and has a chance to break a big play at any time. He should be considered a low-end RB1 while Ingram should be in lineups as an RB2. It’s safe to say you’ll only want to use them in tournaments for DFS this week.

Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: It was the Collins and Gus Edwards show against the Titans last week, while Allen totaled just four touches all game. We don’t have an explanation for it, outside the fact that they were in the lead throughout and didn’t need Allen on the field. Collins was able to score two touchdowns against the Titans defense who had yet to allow a rushing touchdown through five games. He’ll have another tough test against the Saints, whose run defense has been phenomenal. There’ve been four running backs who’ve seen double-digit carries against them, though none of them were able to reach 70 yards on the ground. You’d have to go back to Week 11 of last year to find the last running back who reached the century mark against them. Over the last three games, they’ve held the combination of Tevin Coleman, Saquon Barkley, and Adrian Peterson to just 83 yards on 29 carries (2.86 yards per carry), though Barkley did find the end zone. Where they’ve allowed points to running backs is through the air, as four running backs have been able to stack up at least 36 yards through the air. Knowing Collins has been phased out of the passing-game and seen just five targets over the last three games is worrisome for his floor if the gamescript goes south. He should be considered a low-end RB2 who’s no sure thing. Allen has seen 30 targets on the season and has 15 more receptions than Collins, so he could be useful this week in a PPR format, though he’s nothing more than an RB4.

WRs
Michael Thomas: After setting the fantasy world on fire with 38 receptions for 398 yards and three touchdowns, Thomas has cooled off considerably over the last two weeks, totaling just nine catches for 141 scoreless yards. Not that he’s been a complete bust, but knowing the Saints are going to start to lean on their run-game a bit more, it lowers his ceiling. The fact that he’s caught 46-of-49 targets this year (93.8 percent catch rate) says you can pretty much accurately predict his catch total if you can guestimate how many targets he’ll get. The Ravens are a brutal matchup for wide receivers, though Sean Payton is no dummy. They don’t have Brandon Carr travel into the slot in shadow situations, so Thomas might run more than his usual 29 percent of routes in the slot. Thomas led the NFL in yards per route run from the slot last year (by a ton) and ranks third this year behind only A.J. Green and Tyreek Hill. Expect them to move him around to get him mixed up with Tavon Young, who is the weakest link. Thomas might not be an elite WR1 this week, but he’s still in the WR1 conversation because he has an offensive coordinator who understands how to gameplan and a quarterback who can fit the ball in some tight spots.

Tre’Quan Smith: We now know that Ted Ginn is on injured reserve, making Smith a starter for Brees. The issue is that he’s going to see a mixture of Brandon Carr, Jimmy Smith, and Marlon Humphrey all day, and that hasn’t been kind to many wide receivers, let alone rookies who’ve started just one game. There’s been just two non-slot receivers who have posted more than 11 PPR points against the Ravens, and they were A.J. Green and Antonio Brown, who were both targeted at least nine times. Smith is someone who needs to be owned in all formats, but he’s just a hail mary WR4/5 this week in a tough matchup.

Cameron Meredith: If the Saints decide to keep Thomas in the role he typically plays (on the perimeter 70-plus percent of the time), it’s Meredith who would benefit. The Ravens have a unique problem where they have three starting-caliber cornerbacks in Brandon Carr, Jimmy Smith, and Marlon Humphrey, but none of them are really slot cornerbacks, which means Tavon Young continues to play those snaps. On 18 targets in coverage there, he’s allowed 13 receptions for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Meredith has run 80 percent of his routes in the slot, so he’s the one who’s got the best matchup on the field. Again, Thomas could be moved there a bit more this week, but Meredith is most definitely on the WR4 radar this week and one who wouldn’t shock me if he finished as a top-30 option.

John Brown/Michael Crabtree: I’ll be curious to see how the Saints handle the duo of Brown and Crabtree, as they’re essentially the 1A and 1B receivers, with Crabtree leading the charge with 55 targets while Brown has 47 of them. It seems like Crabtree would get the shadow treatment from Marshon Lattimore, who has played much better since allowing Mike Evans a massive game in Week 1. Since that game, he’s yet to allow more than 54 yards or a touchdown in his coverage. That’s why it’s important to combine Brown and Crabtree in the article this week. It’s possible that they believe Ken Crawley would really struggle with Brown’s speed, so they could choose to put Lattimore on him, who ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the Combine. Whoever draws Crawley would benefit greatly, as he’s allowed the highest QB Rating in his coverage this year, as 21-of-28 attempts have been completed for 345 yards and four touchdowns. He was even benched for P.J. Williams at one point, but they had to put him back in after Patrick Robinson suffered an injury. Both Brown and Crabtree come with upside in this game, though they both come with risk, as you can tell. Consider Brown an upside WR3 while Crabtree is in the low-end WR3 conversation, as he requires plays over and over to return value, whereas Brown can get it done on one play.

Willie Snead: Going against his former team should bring out the best in Snead, who is playing much better than anyone expected this year. In fact, there’s been just one game all season where he’s scored less than 10.4 PPR points. Now going against the Saints, who lost nickel cornerback Patrick Robinson to injured reserve earlier this season. Since that time, they’ve allowed 4/36/1 to Mohamed Sanu, 10/77/1 to Sterling Shepard, and 4/55/0 to Jamison Crowder while Alex Smith had the worst game of his life. It’s P.J. Williams who’ll match-up with Snead, and that’s good news for fantasy owners. Snead should be considered a high-floor WR4 this week who might have his best game of the season.

TEs
Ben Watson: With all of the top-tier cornerbacks the Ravens have, it’s easy to worry about the wide receivers, but what about the tight ends? Well, they’ve been somewhat middle of the pack, allowing decent games to decent players, while holding the weaker options in check. The question is how we view Watson, who has 22 targets on the season, but he’s yet to score, and has topped 44 yards just once. We saw David Njoku and Vance McDonald post double-digit PPR days against them, but those two are great athletes in the prime of their career. You don’t want to write-off Watson as a streaming option against the Ravens, as the Saints are known to attack weaknesses and outside of the slot, there aren’t many. They are one of five teams who’ve still yet to allow a tight end touchdown, but I’m still putting Watson on the mid-to-high-end TE2 radar.

Hayden Hurst: There are many who are saying that Hurst is going to be a thing in fantasy, and I was on board with that prior to his foot injury that required surgery. It put him behind the 8-ball when it comes to competition and he was tied for third among tight ends in pass routes run last week. Yep, both Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle ran more routes than him, while Maxx Williams ran just as many as him. Not that it matters all that much this week, though, as the Saints have been one of the best teams in the league at defending tight ends over the last two years. On the year, they’ve allowed just 18 catches for 188 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends, which included O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Jordan Reed. Last year, they allowed a league-low 457 yards to the position (nobody else allowed less than 535 yards). It’s best to avoid this tight end quartet for the time being.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Total: 41.0
Line: WAS by 1.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: What in the world got into Prescott last week? Maybe Conor McGregor needs to go to every Cowboys game to get them fired up, as it was a performance for the ages against Jacksonville, who seemingly gave up after going down multiple scores. Prescott made the most of it, rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown, which was on top of his two passing scores. It was the first time since 2016 the Jaguars allowed a quarterback more than 22 fantasy points. Apparently oddsmakers weren’t impressed, as this game has the lowest total on the slate with the Cowboys projected to score just under 20 points. The Washington defense has played a bit of Jekyll and Hyde this year, as they looked good early on, only to allow Drew Brees make them look like the worst pass defense in the league. Outside of that game, though, they’ve yet to allow a quarterback more than 6.9 yards per attempt. Prescott himself hasn’t topped that mark in 4-of-6 games and will have to rely on his legs against Washington. The issue is that they’ve held mobile quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck to two rushing yards, Aaron Rodgers to 13 yards, and last week Cam Newton to 43 scoreless yards. They have an athletic front-seven who’s healthy, so it’s not a matchup to target, especially on the road in a divisional game. Prescott may have raised his stock last week, but he’s still finished outside the top-15 quarterbacks in 5-of-6 games. Until we see a trend, look elsewhere for a streamer.

Alex Smith: After what might have been the worst game of his professional career in Week 5, Smith bounced back (kind of) last week, throwing two touchdowns in the first half, though Jay Gruden had them take the air out of the ball in the second half. The concern all along with the him was that his pass-catchers don’t suit his play-style Smith is a very risk-adverse quarterback who doesn’t like to throw into tight windows, though he’s being forced to with the lack of separation his receivers are getting. Of the 135 wide receivers and tight ends who’ve seen at least 15 targets, Josh Doctson ranks 124th, Jamison Crowder ranks 105th, and Paul Richardson ranks 59th. Seriously? The Cowboys secondary has been allowing high-floor performances in their games, as they’ve allowed 4-of-6 quarterbacks to finish as top-18 options against them, with the only exceptions being Blake Bortles and Eli Manning, two quarterbacks who are struggling mightily right now. It’s also worth noting that 4-of-6 quarterbacks have thrown the ball 30 times or less against them, as opponents are averaging just 61.8 plays per game against them. There’re likely better streamers out there for you right now, as Smith is just a low-end QB2 who will get a slight bump if Chris Thompson returns to the lineup.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: We all know that the offense moves through Elliott and it’s been that way for two years now. He’s played the Redskins three times in his career and has posted 87 total yards and a touchdown, 120 total yards and two touchdowns, and then most recently he posted 154 total yards and two touchdowns, so we’re talking about an average of 120.3 total yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. While most will say that the Washington front-seven is better and has allowed the 11th fewest points per game to running backs, I’d point you to their level of competition which has included the Cardinals, Colts, and Packers run games. When they played the Saints, we saw Ingram tally 73 total yards and two touchdowns. Even if they’ve improved a bit, Elliott is being used a ton in the passing-game, as he’s now seen 30 targets through six games, which puts him on pace for 80 targets this season. This game will likely be closely contested throughout, so you should see a good mixture of Elliott in both the run-game and pass-game en route to an RB1 finish. He’s someone you shouldn’t be afraid to play in DFS, either.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: We’ve witnessed a roller coaster with Peterson, as he’s totaled 26 carries, 19 carries, and 17 carries in their odd-numbered games, while totaling just 11 carries and four carries in their even-numbered games. It could be his body failing to hold up in back-to-back weeks, or it could legitimately be nothing and all coincidental. Whatever the case, the Cowboys have stepped-up against the run the last two weeks while playing without Sean Lee, though when you look at the competition, it shouldn’t have been all that hard. Both the Texans and Jaguars offensive lines are trash and they were both starting their backup running backs. Peterson’s offensive line isn’t trash and given him a semi-decent 1.2 yards before contact from the line of scrimmage on average. It’s still going to be a tough contest against a Cowboys defense who’s allowed just one running back more than 55 yards, and it was Chris Carson who tallied 32 carries. If Thompson makes it back into the lineup, they could limit Peterson’s workload, and rightfully so considering the Cowboys have struggled against pass-catching running backs. With the Cowboys opponents averaging just 61.8 plays per game, it may be rough to get Peterson even close to the 20-carry territory, which is what might be needed considering the lack of efficiency of running backs against Dallas. Consider him a high-end RB3 who still gets all the goal-line carries. I’d move him into RB2 territory if Thompson sits, though. With Thompson, he’s more of a middling RB3 who gets a great bump up to RB2 territory in PPR formats considering he’s seen at least seven targets in 3-of-4 games he’s played.

WRs
Michael Gallup: It was going to be Allen Hurns listed here, but he’s now failed to top 30 yards in every game and isn’t gaining any momentum in this offense. Instead, we’ll take the young rookie Gallup, who is now a full-time player as he played 57-of-73 snaps last week. He’s also lining up at LWR the majority of time, which means he’ll see Quinton Dunbar most often while Hurns sees Josh Norman. It’s not that Gallup has done much, either, as he’s failed to top 45 yards, but he’s a rookie who’s been brought on pretty slow. He did have a great touchdown catch last week that was overturned because he couldn’t tap the second toe down, but it was a solid glimpse of what he can do if given the opportunity. Dunbar has now allowed four touchdowns on 30 targets in his coverage, so it’s not a bad matchup, though we can’t confidently say Gallup is anything more than a WR5 knowing he’s still yet to see more than five targets.

Cole Beasley: It seems that when Beasley scores, he really scores. Did you know that he’s scored two touchdowns on three separate occasions the last two years? Those were the only times he’s scored, but in each game, he scored twice. It was extremely matchup dependent last week, as the Jaguars slot cornerback D.J. Hayden was out and the rest of the Jaguars defense simply didn’t show up. Washington has Fabien Moreau covering the slot and he’s done a heck of a job thus far, allowing just a 53 percent completion rate and 7.6 yards per reception in his coverage. Slot-only cornerbacks typically allow a much higher catch-rate, though his is fantastic and one of the lowest in the league. With the lack of talent on the perimeter, Beasley will typically give you a solid floor, but in this matchup there’s not enough reward for the risk you’re taking. He’s seen five or less targets in 4-of-6 games this year.

Paul Richardson: It’s now been four straight weeks where Richardson has posted at least 50 yards or a touchdown, and that’s despite not seeing any more than six targets in any game. He needs to start seeing more, though his health may be holding him back, as he’s been dealing with knee and shoulder injuries the last few weeks. The Dallas secondary is allowing playing pretty well, as they’ve allowed just four wide receivers total more than 56 yards through six games. The most you can hope for out of Richardson is a touchdown, as the targets and yardage aren’t going to be astronomical. The Cowboys have allowed six wide receiver touchdowns to this point, which is not elite, but five of them have gone to slot-heavy receivers, which Richardson is not. He’s in the WR4/5 conversation because he’s the top receiver on his team, but that doesn’t necessarily make him someone you need or want to play.

Josh Doctson: As mentioned in Alex Smith‘s paragraph, Doctson is struggling, period. He ranks 124th out of 135 wide receivers and tight ends in yards of separation at target. Knowing he’s averaging just 2.1 yards of separation means he won’t see many targets from Smith, who doesn’t like to throw into tight coverage. The Cowboys have been allowing the underneath stuff to wide receivers, and particularly Chidobe Awuzie, who’s allowed 25-of-32 passes to be completed, though they’re not allowing pass-catchers to get behind them very often. This may benefit Doctson who did see six targets against the Panthers last week, though it only amounted to 20 yards. With Richardson and Crowder dinged-up, it’s possible that he sees more opportunity, but he’s not to be trusted in lineups right now.

Jamison Crowder: He’s likely not going to play this week, as we heard Jay Gruden say that he won’t practice until Friday “at least.” He’s not been someone who plays well through injury anyway, and it’s showed in his performances this year, as he’s averaging just 2.6 yards of separation (105th) after averaging 3.2 yards in 2017, which was near the top of the league. The slot has been an area of weakness for the Cowboys as five of the six touchdowns they’ve allowed to wide receivers have gone to those who play primarily in the slot, as Crowder does. It’s too bad, though, because there’s no way you can trust him considering we know he’s not 100 percent. Update: He’s been ruled out for this game.

TEs
Geoff Swaim: He’s now seen 21-of-31 targets directed to tight ends in the Cowboys offense, though he’s seen just five targets the last two weeks combined. With Prescott only throwing the ball 27 times last week and in a tough matchup against the Jaguars, don’t hold too much against Swaim, who’d been slowly moving up the tight end rankings. But here’s the thing, Washington isn’t much more tight end friendly, as they’ve still yet to allow one to record more than 45 yards, and that includes Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle, and Jimmy Graham. Keep Swaim in the back of your mind for future matchups, but he’s not on the streaming radar in this one.

Jordan Reed: We’ve talked a lot about yards of separation with the Washington pass-catchers in this one, so how does Reed stack up and should we expect a turnaround here at some point? The answer is yes, as Reed has been rock-solid at creating separation, as he’s top-25 in the league, though his average depth of target is just 6.6 yards down the field. It’s almost as-if Jay Gruden forgot how to use him. That number was up at 8.2 yards the last time Reed was healthy in 2016, so it’s unclear what’s going on here. While it may not seem like much, Reed’s stuck in the territory of someone like Jeff Heuerman and Charles Clay instead of being closer to guys like Trey Burton and Travis Kelce. I’m still buying Reed if possible, as there’s a breakout game coming soon. The Cowboys have allowed at least six catches and 65 yards to both Evan Engram and Ryan Griffin, so this could be the week. Knowing the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, this is a week to trust Reed as a high-end TE1. He’s even someone you should consider in cash given his price-drop.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 52.5
Line: LAR by 10.0

QBs
Jared Goff: It’s been a bit rocky for Goff since he threw those five touchdowns against the Vikings on Thursday night football, as he’s thrown just one touchdown the last two weeks while throwing three interceptions. The touchdowns will come soon, though, as Gurley has just carried the scoring load over the last few weeks. The Rams still average over 32 points per game, so it’ll even out over time. The 49ers defense will be coming off a short week against the Packers where they played fairly well, holding Aaron Rodgers to just a 54.3 percent completion rate, though he was missing two of his top three receivers. Still, the 49ers defense has been much better than expected this year, holding Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Philip Rivers to less than 7.0 yards per attempt. Their competition this year has been out of control, as they’ve played those three, Rodgers, and Mahomes. They have allowed 5-of-6 quarterbacks to finish as top-15 options, and that’s come down to touchdowns because they’ve allowed 14 of them through six games. They’ve also intercepted just one pass all year, tied for the lowest in the league, so it appears they’re just willing to keep the plays in front of them. Missing Cooper Kupp will hurt, as that’s his safety valve in the red zone, but Cooks and Woods are sufficient. While Gurley will get his, Goff remains on the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 radar this week in a game they’re projected for over 30 points.

C.J. Beathard: This may sound odd, but hear me out… both Beathard and Jimmy Garoppolo have each started three games this year. Beathard has averaged 297.3 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 1.7 interceptions, while Garoppolo averaged 239.3 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 1.0 interception. Beathard has also thrown in a rushing touchdown, so he’s scored nearly three more fantasy points per game than Garoppolo. Folks were drafting Garoppolo as a top-10 quarterback, yet Beathard has been started in under 10 percent of leagues. This is more on Garoppolo than Beathard, because Beathard is still just the No. 14 quarterback in his three starts. After shutting down the Raiders and Cardinals offenses over the first two weeks (who hasn’t), the Rams have allowed four straight quarterbacks finish as top-15 options, which includes Case Keenum last week. They’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game, and it’s not even because of high pass attempts. They’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns on the last 142 pass attempts, which would be 7.0 percent (2nd highest in the NFL, higher than the Falcons). They’ve played some good quarterbacks so I don’t think they’re that bad, but they also aren’t the elite defense they were supposed to be. Rams opponents are only averaging 20.7 rushing attempts per game (2nd-lowest in the NFL), so we’ll likely see a high-attempt game from Beathard. He’s a middling QB2 in this game and one you can use in a real emergency.

RBs
Todd Gurley: Considering I gave you a tally of Gurley’s last eight regular season games last week, so I won’t update it after his 208-yard, two-touchdown performance, but know that he was already on pace to outscore LaDanian Tomlinson’s 2006 season. There has yet to be a game this year where Gurley has scored less than 24.6 PPR points. Think about that – he has six of those performances. The rest of the running backs in the NFL have 25 of them. Outside of the Packers last week, every starting running back has totaled at least 15 carries against the 49ers, though Melvin Gordon was the only one to total more than 55 yards. The stats say that they’ve allowed five rushing touchdowns, but in actuality, it’s four because I refuse to count Ty Montgomery‘s catch last week a “run.” All the rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed were to Kareem Hunt and David Johnson, who each scored two touchdowns on goal-line plunges. Some will wonder how that’s a top-12 matchup, but a lot of production has come through the air. They’ve allowed 40 receptions for 305 yards and two touchdowns to running backs this year, which is the fifth-most in the league. Gurley is going to get his production and he might see even more work in the passing-game with Kupp out, so feel free to play him wherever you’d like.

Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert: What in the world happened last week? Not only did Breida play, but Mostert played over Alfred Morris, who most relied on for RB2 production last week. While I don’t personally have Morris in any league, I did start Kyle Juszczyk in one league, thinking I’d get a whole bunch of PPR love, but nah… A lot of people have asked for my take on this backfield going forward and what to do with Mostert. I’m hesitant to trust him, as I’d like to see at least one more week to prove it wasn’t some sort of fluke, though he did look really good. The Rams defense hasn’t been as stout as we thought, though they’ve still yet to allow a top-12 running back this season. While Melvin Gordon has had 22 or more PPR points in every other game, he totaled just 16.4 PPR points against them. It’s not necessarily efficiency either, as they’ve allowed 4.73 yards per carry. The issue is attempts, as they’ve faced the second-lowest attempts in the NFL (just 20.7 per game), and that’s likely due to gamescript. Because of that, Mostert is probably best left on benches to see how the roles shake out, while Breida can be started as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. The concern is that he hasn’t been targeted much in the passing-game, though they’ll likely see a bump in pass attempts this game.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: The conditions in Denver weren’t ideal for Cooks last week, as he’s struggled in cold weather games throughout his career. That won’t be the case in Week 7 at San Francisco and it’s likely he sees more targets than usual with Kupp out of the lineup. Prior to the Denver game, Cooks had seen at least eight targets in all his games (not including Seattle game where he was hurt and knocked out). The 49ers play sides and Cooks will primarily see Jimmie Ward in coverage. This is a good thing. After being bad for four straight years, the 49ers were really hoping that Ahkello Witherspoon would pan out, but he hasn’t, forcing them to go back to Ward. Over his five-year career, he’s allowed 123-of-177 passing for 1,571 yards and 15 touchdowns in his coverage. That’s good for a 120.5 QB Rating. Cooks will also see Richard Sherman at times, but expect McVay to utilize the mismatch with Ward quite often. Cooks should be played as a high-end WR2 this week and one who could explode.

Robert Woods: Some will be wondering what it means for Woods with Kupp out, but we saw a solid sample size the last two weeks, where Woods was the one to step-up and run half of his routes in the slot. So, he’ll see Richard Sherman roughly 30 percent of the time, who has been much better than he looked in the preseason. Teams have simply been avoiding his side of the field because Witherspoon and Ward have been terrible. Going into the slot, he’ll see K’Waun Williams, who has allowed 1.33 yards per covered snap this year, which ranks 15th most of the 42 cornerbacks who’ve played over 25 percent of slot snaps. He’s the definition of an average slot cornerback, though he’s not the biggest weakness on the team. Because of that, Cooks should be the focal point of the passing game, though Woods will get his, too. Over the last five weeks, Woods has totaled at least 81 yards in each game, including at least 19.1 PPR points in each of his last four games. He needs to be in lineups as a middling WR2, even if he does have the tougher matchup.

Pierre Garcon: Since Beathard took over, Garcon has seen a much steadier stream of targets, as he’s seen 25 targets in the three games, even though they’ve amounted to just 136 scoreless yards. It’s now been 129 targets since his last touchdown, which is just maddening considering an average NFL receiver scores once every 22.8 targets. He’ll see a mix of Marcus Peters, Sam Shields, and Troy Hill in coverage this week, which is a good trio to go against at this point in time. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed 688 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 targets in coverage. That’s an astounding 14.0 yards per target with a touchdown every 5.4 targets. The 49ers are likely to try and get Goodwin down the field again, but Garcon should be able to post respectable WR4/5 numbers in a PPR format this week.

Marquise Goodwin: Coming off his biggest game of the year, Goodwin will be a popular waiver wire add who most will ask if he should be started against the Rams. He did only see five targets, but Beathard threw the ball just 23 times, so it’s a solid target share. He’s been working his way back from his quad and hamstring injuries, and he looked really healthy on Monday night. As mentioned in the Garcon paragraph, this is a great time to be running into the Rams cornerback trio of Marcus Peters, Sam Shields, and Troy Hill. I’ll repeat this stat: Over the last four weeks, they have allowed 688 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 targets in coverage. That’s an astounding 14.0 yards per target with a touchdown every 5.4 targets. It’s unlikely the Rams use Peters to shadow Goodwin, as Peters has been bad himself, but he’s been playing LCB since Aqib Talib went down, while Goodwin plays the majority of his snaps on the other side of the field. He doesn’t come without risk, but Goodwin should be on the low-end WR3 radar this week.

TEs
Gerald Everett: Despite Kupp missing most of the last two games and Brandin Cooks missing half of another, the tight ends have seen a total of just 11 targets the last two weeks. While that’s not great, there’s reason for hope with Everett. He surpassed Tyler Higbee in routes run for the first time last week and he’s edged him in targets 7-4 the last two weeks. The 49ers have only faced three tight ends who’ve seen more than three targets and their totals were: Travis Kelce 8/114/0, Antonio Gates 2/27/1, and Jimmy Graham 5/104/0. They’ve allowed four touchdowns to them, which is tied for the league-lead, so it’s not a bad matchup at all. If you’re in a league where tons of tight ends are owned, and you need an emergency bye week option, Everett should be on your radar. He makes for a good DFS tournament option, too.

George Kittle: There will be many who panic about Kittle after seeing him total just 30 yards on primetime, but he saw six of Beathard’s 23 targets, which is a ridiculous 26.1 percent target share. The Rams cornerbacks have really struggled as of late, which has somewhat masked their inefficiencies against tight ends. They’ve yet to allow a tight end touchdown, but they’ve allowed 401 yards through six games, which is the eighth-most in the league, so the touchdowns will follow at some point. When you have a tight end who essentially bottoms out at six targets, you must play him, especially when it’s a plus-matchup.