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Fantasy Football Power Rankings: Week 1

Fantasy Football Power Rankings: Week 1

Everyone loves rankings. With that in mind, these particular power rankings are for fantasy football purposes only. They are not to be confused with standard power rankings, and they do not reflect who I believe is most likely to win the Super Bowl. Furthermore, these rankings will be a snapshot of a given week. Thus, the rankings will be quite fluid week to week depending on matchups, and things such as over/under total and spread will play a substantial role in dictating where teams rank. Also, since it’s a week-to-week ranking, an injury to a key player can result in a team dropping in the rankings a great deal, since their availability after the forthcoming week of games doesn’t mean anything for this particular week’s rankings. The rankings have been crafted with 12-team or larger leagues in mind, thus, depth of fantasy-relevant options plays a more significant role in the rankings than it would if created for a 10-team league where the useful player pool is smaller. Having said that, as long as Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger (for the sake of Brown) are healthy, the former duo will assure the Steelers a favorable ranking even if Martavis Bryant and others fail to provide Pittsburgh a glut of fantasy-relevant options beyond their Big Three. The top-two options have an ADP within the first three picks of drafts, and they’re threats to lead their position in scoring every week while being completely matchup-proof. A deep offense like New England’s is also going to rank well week to week as long as Tom Brady is healthy, despite the fact the scoring leaders on their offense — outside of Brady — are less predictable than the Bell/Brown duo. Now that the thought process has been explained, let’s move on to the rankings working from worst to first.

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21-32

32 Jets (@Bills)
31 Ravens (@Bengals)
30 Bears (vs. Falcons)
29 Colts (@ Rams)
28 Jaguars (@Texans)
27 Browns (vs. Steelers)
26 49ers (vs. Panthers)
25 Eagles (@Redskins)
24 Bills (vs. Jets)
23 Rams (vs. Colts)
22 Texans (vs. Jaguars)
21 Lions (vs. Cardinals)

 
The Jets are in their own class of futility in real-life football and the fantasy realm, too. Bilal Powell is their only fantasy starter in Week 1 in most leagues with Robby Anderson checking in as the next best option. The Ravens have zero star power and a quartet of fringe starters/Flex options in the form of Terrance West, Danny Woodhead, Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Maclin. It’s not hard to envision the owner of any of those four players having better starting options in a 12-team league. Like the Jets, the Bears are essentially a one-man show in Week 1. The difference is that Jordan Howard is a substantially better option at RB than Powell. Behind Howard in the fantasy-usefulness pecking order is Kevin White and Kendall Wright, who both could have Flex value in deep leagues but are bench options in standard leagues for the season’s opening week.

Excluding Andrew Luck, the Colts have four players in the top 120 by ECR, three of them within the top 90, and one, T.Y. Hilton, in the top 25. They rank so low, however, because Luck has all but been ruled out for Week 1, and Scott Tolzien drags down the value of everyone on the offense against a Wade Phillips coached Rams’ defense. Hilton’s the only player who is a clear start, and it’s still not hard to envision him disappointing with Tolzien leading the offense.

Speaking of AFC South quarterbacks dragging down their teammates, Blake Bortles regressed last year and showed zero signs of righting the ship in the preseason. A matchup with the stingy Texans defense results in a game over/under total of just 40 points with the host Texans favored by five, per Pinnacle. That doesn’t leave a lot of projected actual scoring for the duo of Leonard Fournette and Allen Robinson, but both are in line for plenty of volume, which should be enough for them to tally useful fantasy point scoring totals.

I went back and forth between where to rank the Browns and 49ers. If you play in leagues larger than a 12-teamer, I’d push the Browns ahead of the 49ers. Isaiah Crowell is the only slam-dunk starter in 12-team leagues, but with strong-armed Deshone Kizer leading the offense, Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman have WR3/Flex appeal, and game script — the Browns are 8-point dogs — could lead to increased usage for pass-catching back Duke Johnson, making him a fringe starter in PPR formats. The 49ers lack the depth of potential contributors in Week 1, but they have twice as many slam-dunk starters as the Browns. Carlos Hyde and Pierre Garcon are the focal points of San Francisco’s offense, and like the duo of Fournette/Robinson, they’ll see a ton of volume. Fortunately for San Francisco’s duo, they’re tied to a better quarterback — Brian Hoyer — than the Jags’ duo. The 49ers are 5.5-point underdogs at home, but the games over/under total of 48 points isn’t too shabby.

I like the Eagles offense this year, and I like the point-scoring potential in Week 1 in a game with an over/under total of 47.5 points and just a one-point spread favoring the visiting Eagles. Having said that, the only players I trust as starters in 12-team leagues this week are Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. Darren Sproles is an option in PPR leagues, too, but backfield mate LeGarrette Blount is an easy sit outside of archaic super-touchdown-heavy scoring leagues.

The Bills have just one must-start option on offense, but LeSean McCoy is a hell of a must-start option. He’ll be force fed the ball in the game in which the Bills are monster 9.5-point favorites against a defense that removed one of their top-two defenders from a season ago by trading Sheldon Richardson last week. Zay Jones is a potential flex option due to the lack of pass-catching options, but it’s the Bills DST that helps push Shady and Co. into the top 25 in the first installment of the Fantasy Football Power Rankings. Buffalo’s defense is in the mix to be the top scoring fantasy defense this week, and going forward, the same can be said for any defense facing the Jets.

Sticking to the theme of strong fantasy defense plays in Week 1, both the Rams and Texans boast elite options this week against the Tolzien-led Colts and Bortles-led Jaguars, respectively. Gurley had a dreadful follow-up season to his electric rookie year in 2015, and he’ll look to kick off his third season on a high note against a soft run defense. He’s one of the few true bell-cow backs in a league that’s moved to more running-back-by-committee situations in a pass-happy game. Sammy Watkins is another solid starter despite a questionable signal caller, Jared Goff, airing out the pigskin to him. The Colts will be without the services of Vontae Davis in Week 1, making life easier for Watkins in his first regular season game with his new club. The Texans offense is headlined by Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins, who are a bit better pairing than the combo of Gurley/Watkins. Even in a matchup with a stronger defense, I opted to give the edge to Houston’s pairing.

The Lions round out the bottom dozen. As is the case with the Eagles, I like Detroit’s offense and Week 1 matchup, but they lack studs and reliable depth. Matthew Stafford is a fringe top-10 QB this week, and Golden Tate is a fantasy starter in all but the shallowest of leagues — even with the potential of butting heads with stud corner Patrick Peterson much of Sunday. Ameer Abdullah and Eric Ebron are also startable options in most leagues, and Theo Riddick is a viable option in PPR formats, too. The quantity is good, and the game’s over/under total of 48 points with the host Lions small underdogs at +1.5 points is as well, but neither are good enough to push them into the top 20 in this week’s Fantasy Football Power Rankings.

11-20

20 Giants (@ Cowboys)
19 Broncos (vs. Chargers)
18 Vikings (vs. Saints)
17 Chiefs (@ Patriots)
16 Panthers (@ 49ers)
15 Bengals (vs. Ravens)
14 Chargers (@ Broncos)
13 Redskins (@ Titans)
12 Dolphins (vs. Buccaneers)
11 Titans (vs. Raiders)

 
The Giants ranking assumes signs point toward Odell Beckham Jr. playing this week. If things trend in the wrong direction and he appears to be out, they topple to behind the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall would get an obvious bump in the absence of OBJ, but he’s a starter even if OBJ plays. Paul Perkins is in the low-end RB2 or Flex mix as the Giants’ feature back. Trevor Semien is a below-average starting quarterback, but Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving with 90 receptions and 79 receptions, respectively, and five touchdown receptions each last year, so they’re still fantasy starters even without an upgrade at QB for Denver. C.J. Anderson is a bounce-back candidate and RB2/Flex option while Jamaal Charles is a middling Flex option in larger leagues or leagues with big-play bonuses (i.e. runs of 20-plus yards, or something of that nature). Their defense remains stocked with elite talent and adds yet another fantasy starter to the mix.

The Vikings are a slightly higher-class version of the Lions in a better matchup against the soft Saints’ defense. Dalvin Cook is an RB2 this week, Stefon Diggs is a WR2/WR3, Kyle Rudolph is a starter at TE, and with news of Adam Thielen getting more work from the slot with risk-averse, dink-and-dunker Sam Bradford leading the offense, that’s a great spot to be, making him a WR3/Flex in a game with an over/under total of 48 points in which the Vikings are -3.5 favorites.

The Chiefs are getting eight points on the road against the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots. The game script doesn’t bode well for rookie Kareem Hunt running much late in the game, but he’ll get ample carries as a whole and is an every-down back who caught 41 passes for 403 yards and a touchdown in his Senior season with Toledo last year, per Sports-Reference. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be busy if the game goes according to the oddsmaker’s projection and the Chiefs are playing catch up.

I’m not a Cam Newton believer this year, but most gamers who drafted him did so as a starter, and he has a good matchup in Week 1 against the rebuilding 49ers. Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin are fantasy starters at their positions and also benefit from the soft matchup, and do-it-all rookie running back Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers DST brings the fantasy starter total to five for Week 1. In larger leagues, Jonathan Stewart is a touchdown-vulture option as well with a little more rushing yardage upside than he’ll have most weeks.

A.J. Green is one of the top fantasy wide outs, and Tyler Eifert is just outside the top five at tight end. Beyond them, rookie Joe Mixon is a boom-or-bust option at the Flex until the backfield situation becomes less murky, and Jeremy Hill is a touchdown-dependent Flex option in larger leagues. The Bengals DST is starting caliber this week in a good matchup with some of the top defenses (such as the Chiefs and Seahawks) stuck in tough matchups. I’m a believer in Andy Dalton returning to 2015 form — or perhaps performing even better than that — and have him just outside the top-10 signal callers this week, putting him in startable territory.

The Chargers have a tough matchup with Denver’s stout defense, and they’re getting 3.5 points in a game with a low over/under total of 43 points. Having said that, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are easy starter selections week in and week out. Tyrell Williams is a Flex option in a tough matchup, and sophomore tight end Hunter Henry gets the nod from me as a fantasy starter at his position. If you’re weak at tight end, Antonio Gates is a pray-for-a-touchdown play. The Chargers DST is also a stream option for gamers who drafted the Chiefs or Seahawks and wish to sit them in their games against high-powered offenses.

The Redskins overhauled their receiving corps in the offseason, but Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed return and are joined by high-upside free-agent signing Terrell Pryor. Kirk Cousins is coming off of back-to-back 4,000-plus yard passing campaigns with 54 touchdown passes in the last two years, and he came up just short of reaching the 5,000-yard plateau last year. He’s a top-5 QB this week and joins his previously mentioned triplet of pass-catchers as excellent options this week. Rob Kelley joins the mix as a low-end RB2 or Flex play.

The Dolphins have a workhorse RB1 in Jay Ajayi, and receivers DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry are low-end WR2s or high-end WR3s. That’s a talented trio, and Julius Thomas is a touchdown dart throw for gamers weak at TE. The Titans are the last of the teams on the outside of the top 10. They host the Raiders and are two-point favorites in the game with the highest over/under total of the week at 51 points. DeMarco Murray bounced back from his forgettable season in Philadelphia and is an RB1. Marcus Mariota is a top-10 QB this week, and Delanie Walker is a top-10 tight end. What held the Titans back from ranking in the top 10 is some murkiness at wide receiver. Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker are my favorite options from the Titans receivers at Flex, but the fifth pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Corey Davis, is expected to be ready to play after missing the entire preseason. The uncertainty of who will emerge as Mariota’s top receivers makes each a risky play, but all have upside.

6-10

10 Seahawks (@ Packers)
9 Buccaneers (@ Dolphins)
8 Cardinals (@ Lions)
7 Saints (@ Vikings)
6 Cowboys (vs. Giants)

 
We kick off the top 10 with the Seahawks. Their messy backfield holds them back from ranking higher, but the trio of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Jimmy Graham is elite in a game that projects to be a shootout with an over/under total of 50.5 points and the Seahawks getting three points. The Bucs are an offense that’s generating a ton of buzz this offseason, and added weapons make Jameis Winston a top-10 QB. His top receiver, Mike Evans, is a stud, and DeSean Jackson joins him as a big-play option for the strong-armed quarterback. The Buccaneers are -2.5 favorites on the road, and with Doug Martin suspended, Jacquizz Rodgers is a solid RB2 who will cede some passing-down work to Charles Sims but should be in line for a minimum of 15 touches and possibly upwards of 20 or more.

David Johnson has an ADP and ECR of number one, and he’s the focal point of Arizona’s offense as a legitimate threat to break 1,000 yards rushing and receiving this year. The Cardinals are -1.5 favorites in a game with a high-ish over/under total of 48 points, though, Johnson is game-script proof due to his wide receiver-like pass-catching and route-running ability. Larry Fitzgerald is in the WR2 discussion, and a healthy — for now — John Brown is a WR3 or Flex with big upside. Carson Palmer‘s just outside the top-12 QBs this week, but he’s a fine starter for gamers who waited at QB and watched others double dip in the top 10 or for those who selected him to bridge the gap to a healthy return from Luck.

A three-game suspension for Willie Snead knocked the Saints out of the top five, and a road tilt — Drew Brees is much better at home, but he’s still very good on the road — further reinforced the move down. Having said that, I obviously expect big things this week ranking them seventh. Brees and Michael Thomas are top-flight options at their positions, the duo of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson are RB2/Flex plays, Ted Ginn Jr. is a WR3/Flex option, and the absence of Snead even pushes Coby Fleener into fringe starter territory at tight end.

I’m of the belief that Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension will be overturned or a temporary injunction will allow him to play in Week 1, and I think that’s the growing consensus as we await official word. He is behind only David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell at running back, and Dez Bryant is a WR1. Dak Prescott is a fantasy starter at QB in Week 1, and Jason Witten is a low-upside, boring option at TE capable of consistently scoring 8-10 fantasy points in PPR formats. If Elliott is out for Week 1, Darren McFadden is a rock solid RB2, but the Cowboys would slip behind the Vikings in the rankings.

5 – Raiders (@ Titans)
We’ve reached the elite of the elite fantasy squads for Week 1. The Raiders are small underdogs, but as I noted in the Titans’ blurb, the game’s over/under total of 51 is the highest this week. The Raiders rank higher than their opponent largely due to more clarity regarding who’s going to get the ball. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are the unquestioned top-two pass-catchers for the Raiders, and both bested 130 targets, 80 receptions, and 1,000 yards receiving last year while Cooper reeled in five touchdown grabs and Crabtree led the team with eight. Both are top-20 receivers this week. Jared Cook was added as a free agent to bring another dimension to the passing game, and he’s a high-risk, high-reward option for gamers who didn’t draft a top-10 tight end. The addition of Cook adds another weapon for Week 1 top-10 QB Derek Carr, and Marshawn Lynch was acquired via trade after sitting out last year. Lynch is a clear-cut RB2.

4 – Falcons (@ Bears)
The Falcons have a candidate to lead the wide receiver position in points every week, including this week, in Julio Jones, and ditto at quarterback with Matt Ryan. Running back Devonta Freeman is a do-it-all top-five RB, and with the Falcons favored by seven points in a game with a juicy over/under total of 50.5 points, game script lines up favorably for him getting the ball a ton. Backup running back Tevin Coleman could also benefit if this game turns into a laugher, and he’s squarely in the back end of the RB2 mix or a nifty Flex option. Finally, the Falcons DST is a top-10 option this week that should have a chance to pin their ears back and get after Mike Glennon when the Bears are placed in predictable passing situations to play catch up, assuming the game goes according to the expectations set by the spread favoring the Falcons.

3 – Patriots (vs. Chiefs)
The Patriots lost their No. 1 receiver, Julian Edelman, for the season in their third preseason game, yet here they are third in the power rankings. The addition of Brandin Cooks via trade looks even wiser now than it already looked prior to Edelman’s injury, and he’s a WR1 with Edelman out. Rob Gronkowski is the class of the tight end position, and Tom Brady is, well, he’s the G.O.A.T. and jostling for top QB honors this week with a forthcoming signal caller. The elite top-end talent on the Patriots is backed by some sweet secondary pieces, too. The absence of Edelman pushes big-play wide out Chris Hogan into WR3 territory or Flex play option, and even with plenty of questions surrounding the backfield playing time and usage distribution entering Week 1, Mike Gillislee is in the RB2/Flex range thanks to his goal-line prowess while pass-catching specialist James White is in the Flex mix in PPR formats. The Chiefs do an outstanding job of taking care of the football, so I wouldn’t bank on the Patriots DST forcing many miscues, but with a spread of eight points favoring the host Patriots, they could force one or two while racking up some sacks when Alex Smith is stuck airing it out in predictable passing situations.

2 – Packers (vs. Seahawks)
The forthcoming QB I was alluding to above is Aaron Rodgers. I’m sure you’re shocked. Rodgers returned to superstar form last year with Jordy Nelson coming back from a torn ACL suffered prior to the 2015 season. Nelson is back to being a WR1 after leading the NFL in touchdown receptions with 14 and adding 1,257 yards receiving on 97 receptions, while Rodgers is in the mix for top QB honors on a weekly basis. Tied for second in TD receptions last year was 2016 breakout Davante Adams, who is a strong WR2. Ty Montgomery transitioned to running back last year, and the former receiver is an every-down back who’s comfortably an RB2 in all scoring formats this week. Circling back to pass catchers, Randall Cobb was banged up much of last year and followed up a disappointing 2015 season in which he caught 79 passes for 829 yards and six touchdowns with an even worse 2016 campaign in which he reeled in 60 of 84 targets for 610 yards and four scores. Now healthy, he’s a usable Flex. Replacing departed Jared Cook at tight end is better tight end Martellus Bennett, who is a top-10 TE in fantasy leagues.

1 – Steelers (@ Browns)
I noted in the intro that a healthy trio of Bell, Brown, and Big Ben would net them a favorable ranking weekly in the Fantasy Football Power Rankings, and there isn’t a more favorable ranking than number one. Bell and Brown have an ECR and ADP of two and three. They are top-five fantasy options on the same team, which is insane. Both are among the top candidates to lead their position in scoring every single week, and they both threaten to do so in a soft matchup against the Browns to kick off their 2017 campaign. Sure, Big Ben is much better at home than on the road over the last few years, but he’s also a top-12 option at QB. Martavis Bryant adds an explosive element to the passing game after being fully reinstated from his suspension that cost him the entire 2016 season. Bryant had a brilliant suspension-shortened 2015 season in which he caught 50 passes for 765 yards (15.3 yards per reception) and six touchdowns in 11 games. He’s a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 in the season’s opening week. The Steelers are eight-point favorites, and the game’s over/under total of 47 suggests the Steelers should do plenty of scoring. The sizable spread and presence of a rookie signal caller opposing them makes the defense a decent stream choice this week.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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