The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Total: 44.5
Line: LAC by 16.5

QBs
Philip Rivers: We don’t often see the Chargers favored by 16.5 but when a team plays the Dolphins, we’re going to see these things. They’ve now allowed an average of 125.0 fantasy points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, which is obviously the highest mark in the NFL. Their secondary got worse after trading Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers last week, so there’s little reason to expect a turnaround. Despite facing an average of just 28.7 pass attempts per game (third-fewest), they’ve allowed quarterbacks a ridiculous 29.3 fantasy points per game, the second-most in the league. When you hear fantasy players saying they’re worried about gamescript getting out of control, it hasn’t been an issue due to the efficiency numbers quarterbacks have been able to post. Rivers is a QB1 this week and there’s very little reason to doubt him against this incompetent defense, especially when the Chargers are projected for 30.5 points.

Josh Rosen: He’ll retain the starting job after last week, where the offense did move the ball, just failed when it came to actually put points on the board. The Chargers defense is a shell of what it used to be after losing three starters in the secondary, and it’s led to them allowing a rather high 8.64 yards per attempt and a 74.7 percent completion-rate, both near the highest marks in the league. The Chargers did step up the pressure last week, though, pressuring Deshaun Watson on 46.3 percent of his dropbacks. Rosen himself has been pressured on 44.3 percent of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest mark in the league. The matchup isn’t good enough to consider Rosen, and considering the state of his offensive line, it may never be. Do the Dolphins play the Giants this year? Yes, they do, in Week 15. That’ll be fun.

RBs
Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson: Running backs have combined to average 33.7 carries and 3.7 receptions per game against the Dolphins, so it’s likely going to be a week where there’s value to be found in both Chargers running backs. It’s not just volume, either, as they’ve allowed extreme efficiency on those touches. The 5.30 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks third-most, while the 8.15 yards per target they’ve allowed also ranks as the third-most. The Chargers aren’t likely going to be checking down to Ekeler as much as they have in the first three weeks where he’s averaged 6.7 targets per game. One important note about this backfield timeshare in Week 4 is that no Chargers running back (including Melvin Gordon) has topped 19 carries in a game since the start of the 2018 season. That means Justin Jackson is likely set up for around 15 carries in this game, which is more than enough to do damage, especially against this Dolphins defense. We just watched backup Tony Pollard toast the Dolphins for 103 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. Prior to that game, he had totaled just 46 yards on 17 carries. Meanwhile Jackson has crushed opponents, totaling 142 yards on 18 carries. Ekeler is an elite play, though his ceiling may be capped with Jackson’s involvement. Ah, who am I kidding, the ceiling on 19 carries against the Dolphins is the RB1 for the week. Jackson can be played as an upside RB2/3, too. *Update* Jackson has been ruled OUT for this game, which means we’ll likely see Ekeler with a bigger ceiling than initially thought. If you’re looking for Jackson’s replacement, it’s Troymaine Pope, who isn’t of Jackson’s caliber. Still, he can likely give flex/RB4-type numbers in a pinch.

Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage: We’re now three weeks into the season and the Dolphins backfield has combined for 34.6 PPR points. I cannot begin to express how bad that is. There have been four running back performances that have topped that in one game this year. They’re averaging a combined 19.0 touches per game, which makes it somewhat impossible to find value, especially when Ballage is taking up 6.7 of those touches per game, averaging just 2.55 yards per touch, including three straight carries inside the five-yard-line last week where he continually ran into a wall. Meanwhile, Drake played better last week, but lost a fumble in Cowboys territory. He’s now seen 18 carries and 12 targets over the last two weeks, so maybe there’s value to be had? Ceding goal-line carries to Ballage is a problem, though. The Chargers have allowed just 102 yards on 36 carries (2.83 yards per carry) over the last two weeks, as their front-seven is the strength of the team after all the injuries in the secondary. Knowing the gamescript will be in favor of Drake again, he’s on the radar as a mediocre RB3/4 option in PPR formats, though his upside is extremely limited. Ballage shouldn’t be owned in fantasy leagues.

WRs
Keenan Allen: Through three weeks, Allen sits atop the wide receiver board with 18.2 more PPR points than the closest wide receiver (Julio Jones). How do we celebrate? Against the Dolphins, the team that’s allowed the ninth most points to the wide receiver position. Even better, they traded away their best nickel cornerback, who happened to be their best safety as well, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their backup who’s now required to start? Jomal Wiltz, who has now allowed six catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns on just eight targets in coverage. It’s impossible to not like Allen this week as a WR1, if not the WR1. There’s nothing anyone could say about this matchup that would be a negative, so feel free to plug him in to cash-game lineups, as well as tournament ones.

Mike Williams: There’s not a bad matchup on the field for the Chargers, as they can score in a lot of different ways against the Dolphins. While Xavien Howard was considered a problem for opposing wide receivers until this year, he’s been a slot machine this year, allowing 8/101/2 in his coverage on 11 targets. He legitimately looked like he was playing at half-speed against Amari Cooper last week. Is this his way of asking to be traded as well? If he were his usual self, it’d be a reason to fade Williams, but given his recent play, Williams should be in lineups as a WR3 who is likely to score his first touchdown of the year. His targets have escalated every week and it’s only a matter of time before some of those Allen touchdowns go his way. If the Dolphins don’t shadow with Howard, he’d see Eric Rowe in coverage, who’s also allowed two touchdowns in his coverage on just 16 targets. *Update* Williams has been ruled OUT for Week 4. If you’re looking for his replacement, Dontrelle Inman becomes an emergency WR4/5 this week. 

DeVante Parker: There’s been some solid plays for Parker this year, though they’ll be overshadowed by the bad ones, like the drop he had on a crossing route where the Dolphins were in the red zone and no defender was within five yards of him. It would have been a touchdown. He’s seen at least six targets in every game, though Josh Rosen did appear to favor Preston Williams a bit more, which makes sense considering their work together on the second-team this offseason. We don’t know if the Chargers will even view this as a shadow situation with Casey Hayward knowing that Williams had 12 targets last week. It’s important because Hayward is one to try and avoid in questionable matchups. Just last week, he held Deandre Hopkins to just 6/67/0. You don’t want to attach yourself to Dolphins skill-position players if you can help it, and Hayward is enough of a worry to move Parker down to the WR5 range.

Preston Williams: He saw 12 targets in Rosen’s first start, which is definitely a good sign for future production out of him. Williams also runs most of his routes at LWR, which is where backup cornerbacks Brandon Facyson is located. He’s only playing because of an injury to Trevor Williams, so when you see he’s allowed 12-of-16 passing for 134 yards and a touchdown, you know why. It’s actually possible the Chargers view Williams as the biggest threat and assign Casey Hayward to him, though that would leave Parker against Facyson. One of the Dolphins receivers is likely to have a usable game in fantasy leagues this week and my guess would be on Williams considering the chemistry with Rosen. He can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR4/5 option, but if Hayward gets Parker, Williams could/should post WR3 numbers.

TEs
Virgil Green: You’d think Green would be more involved in the offense with Hunter Henry out, but he’s run just 37 routes over the last two weeks and has caught just one pass. Both Sean Culkin and Lance Kendricks are out there running routes as well. It’s too bad because the Dolphins have been horrendous against tight ends, allowing an 87 percent catch-rate, and 11.52 yards per target, which ranks second to only the Cardinals. Despite allowing just one touchdown, they’ve allowed the third-most points to the tight end position. If you’re looking for a hail-mary in a 2TE league, Green might just work. *Update* Green has been ruled OUT for this game. 

Mike Gesicki: Among tight ends who’ve played at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps, Gesicki’s 0.63 yards per route run ranks dead-last. Even last year that mark was 0.93 yards per route run, so he’s actually regressed. The Chargers missing both of their starting safeties clearly affected their ability to defend the tight end position last week when Jordan Akins went for 73 yards and two touchdowns. That’s quite the departure from the first two weeks when they held Eric Ebron to one catch for eight yards and T.J. Hockenson to one catch for seven yards. Is the starting duo of Rayshawn Jenkins and Roderic Teamer bad enough to allow Gesicki to post more than his career-high of 7.4 PPR points? They might be, but you shouldn’t bank on it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 50.5
Line: LAR by 9.5

QBs
Jameis Winston: Week 3 was more of what we were expecting out of Winston this year, though you shouldn’t be riding that wave into his Week 4 matchup with the Rams. I’m going to do it again, and every week, until the masses understand that the Rams are not a good matchup when Aqib Talib is on the field.

Those are the numbers since the start of the 2018 season, so Baker Mayfield‘s performance last week was practically in line with what they’ve allowed. In those 11 games with Talib, the best quarterback performance against them was QB12 by Nick Mullens in Week 17 last year. The Rams pressured Mayfield on 46 percent of his dropbacks last week, another struggling offensive line. Winston isn’t good when pressured, as his 52.2 QB Rating under pressure ranks 28th among quarterbacks. There are better streaming options available this week than Winston, who should be considered a middling-to-low-end QB2.

Jared Goff: After watching Daniel Jones dice up the Bucs last week, most are getting excited about the prospects of Goff this week. Goff did throw two touchdowns last week, though it doesn’t seem as impressive when you know the Browns were without a starting safety, starting linebacker, and two starting cornerbacks. The Bucs defense has been much better under Todd Bowles, and we must give credit to Jones for his performance last week, because he was under pressure a league-leading 58 percent of the time. He just threw extremely well under pressure (133.1 QB Rating). Goff hasn’t been very good under pressure, ranking outside the top-20 quarterbacks in that category. With that, if the Bucs don’t generate pressure, they don’t have the cornerback talent to hang with Goff’s receivers. Think about it: the 49ers don’t have much at receiver and Jimmy Garoppolo missed plenty of throws in Week 1. Then Cam Newton missed plenty of open receivers in Week 2. Let’s not pretend that Jones’ weapons are great, but he toasted them for 336 yards and two touchdowns. Goff is still struggling more than most realize, but he should be on the low-end QB1 radar this week. I’m just not willing to play him in cash given his one or less touchdowns in nine of the last 11 games.

RBs
Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones: Your guess is as good as mine. The Bucs backfield is going to be a nightmare to predict if the touches continue to be shifted on a weekly basis. After Jones looked great in Week 1, they gave Barber the most touches in Week 2, where he performed very well. Then, in Week 3, they give Jones the most touches. There’s no common denominator; believe me, I’ve looked. The Rams are likely to lead in this game, so negative gamescript is a possibility. Dare Ogunbowale has run 42 routes, while Barber has run 28 routes, with Jones bringing up the rear with just 14 routes. The Rams run defense has been middle of the pack in nearly everything to running backs, but knowing they’ve played against Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Nick Chubb over the first three weeks, that’s quite the accomplishment. This does not have the looks of a good matchup for any of the Bucs running backs, though Jones has the most breakaway speed. But if he’s not out there running routes when they fall behind, it won’t matter. Barber is likely the best play but he’s just a low-ceiling RB3/4 type option. Jones should be owned in case Bruce Arians decides to see what he can do in a workhorse role, but he can’t be started just yet.

Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown: It’s hard to explain, but the best way for me to put it is that Gurley isn’t running with a sense of urgency. He was always somewhat of a glider but it’s different this year, as evidenced by his 3.5 yards per carry over the last two weeks in what were two plus matchups. The Bucs were without their first-round pick Devin White last week, who has already been ruled out for this game. That’ll help, though the Browns were extremely shorthanded on defense last week and Gurley turned in a 43-yard performance. He’s still getting 16.0 touches per game, but efficiency needs to improve. In each of the first three games under Todd Bowles, the Bucs defense has allowed sub-3.4 yards per carry, which included matchups with Matt Breida, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. They just might be the real deal, though we can’t proclaim them as great just yet. The Rams present tons of problems on the perimeter, which means the Bucs can’t load the box like they did against McCaffrey and force Goff to beat them, because his receivers will beat them. You have to keep plugging Gurley in as an RB2 and hope things turn around when he’s getting this many touches on an offense that’s projected for 30 points. Brown has been getting work, though his seven touches per game likely isn’t enough against a Bucs defense that’s allowed 2.71 yards per carry and no touchdowns through three weeks.

WRs
Mike Evans: If you were here last week, you knew Evans was a good play. Unfortunately, we might be back to the Week 1 and 2 version of him in Week 4. The Rams have now played 11 games with Aqib Talib on the field since the start of 2018, and in those games, they’ve allowed just two wide receivers to post more than 18 PPR points. To this point, they’ve held receivers to just 1.37 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and let’s not pretend they didn’t play top-notch competition against D.J. Moore, Michael Thomas, and Odell Beckham. The duo of Talib and Marcus Peters is among the better 1-2 punches in football and both can play physically with Evans. The gamescript should favor the passing game, so we should see some volume, though the efficiency will be down. Evans should be considered a mediocre WR2 this week and a candidate to sell-high after his big performance in Week 3.

Chris Godwin: My mentions on Twitter were blowing up last week with many asking if Godwin was hurt, but it was simply the Bucs chance to get Evans going. Godwin is fine and he’s a really good buy-low target if his owner is panicking. The good news for him this week is that he will avoid Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters in coverage 60 percent of the time because that’s how often he plays in the slot. Unfortunately, the Rams slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman is pretty dang good, too, though he’s not quite on the Peters/Talib level. During his three years with the Rams, he’s allowed a 62.8 percent catch rate, though those receptions have gone for an average of just 9.1 yards per reception. He keeps the play in front of him, though Godwin may be able to find some soft spots in the zone. It’s not a great matchup for the Bucs receivers in general, so don’t expect a big game from Godwin, though he’s still on the WR2 radar. *Update* Godwin (hip) missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, though did return for a limited session on Friday. Bruce Arians has called him a game-time decision, so we must lower expectations a bit more. 

Brandin Cooks: Upon finding out the Browns were without their top two cornerbacks last week, Cooks made plenty of sense to start as a high-end WR2, and though he didn’t get in the end zone, his 12 targets tied his highest mark with the Rams. It was good to see after they targeted him just four times in Week 3. The Bucs cornerback situation is another one for them to take advantage of, as Cooks will see Carlton Davis more than anyone else. Davis is a 6-foot-1, 210-pound cornerback who ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at his Combine last year. He’s been beaten in coverage quite a few times but has solid overall numbers because Garoppolo and Newton couldn’t hit their targets. He simply doesn’t have the ability or agility to handle someone like Cooks. Knowing Cooks plays 65 percent of his snaps on Davis’ side of the field is big. Put him in lineups as a high-end WR2 and expect results.

Robert Woods: Is it time to panic on Woods, who’s now had consecutive games with 40 yards or less? Knowing that we have a 31-game sample size with him performing like a WR2 more often than not, he definitely gets a pass. The Bucs defense has played much better than anyone expected them to, as they’ve been the No. 1 defense against running backs while being the No. 10 defense against wide receivers. A lot of the passing totals would look a lot different if Garoppolo and Newton had hit their targets in the games against them. Woods will primarily see Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, a cornerback who has been labeled as a bust by many, and his numbers this season wouldn’t suggest anything different, as he’s allowed 13-of-18 passing for 200 yards and a touchdown. This is another matchup where the Rams kind of get to pick their flavor against a weak cornerback unit, and I wouldn’t expect them to leave Woods out of that. Despite his recent struggles, he should be in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Cooper Kupp: Just 10 months removed from a torn ACL, Kupp sits as the No. 6 wide receiver in PPR formats after three weeks. Maybe Sean McVay wasn’t lying when he said Kupp is actually faster after the injury (I’m kidding). The Bucs still have M.J. Stewart covering the slot, which means you cannot ignore Kupp’s plus-matchup once again. Through 19 games in his NFL career, Stewart has allowed 44-of-56 passing for 522 yards and six touchdowns, which is bad on every level, no matter where on the field you’re playing. For a slot cornerback to allow 11.9 yards per reception and a touchdown every 9.3 targets, it’s a matchup that you want to target rather often. The only issue is that both Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods should be able to win their matchups, but knowing Kupp has a team-high 31 targets through three games, he gets the nod as the best play. You’re playing him as a borderline WR1 with that combined volume/ matchup.

TEs
O.J. Howard: The gap continues to shrink between Cameron Brate and Howard, as the split in Week 3 was 28 routes run for Howard, while Brate ran 22 of them. Fortunately, Howard had double the targets (4) and produced 66 yards on three receptions. He’s not out of the dark yet, but it’s promising to see him actually get targeted. The Rams have been one of the better teams against tight ends through three weeks, allowing just a 38.1 percent completion-rate to them, which in turn has funneled down the yards per target to just 3.67, which are both the lowest marks in the league. But here’s the catch – they allowed four different top-three performances to the position last year, and they were all to highly-athletic tight ends, as George Kittle (twice), Travis Kelce, and Jared Cook all totaled at least 20 PPR points. If there’s one of those on the Bucs, it’s Howard, though he’s still just a low-end TE1 considering his lack of targets and timeshare with Brate. Each of those tight ends listed saw at least eight targets, an area Howard hasn’t even come close to.

Gerald Everett: The bad news is that Everett totaled just 15 yards without Tyler Higbee in the lineup, but the good news is that he was the only tight end who ran a route for the Rams last week. The fact that he’s playing the Bucs this week is more good news. They allowed 11 top-12 performances to tight ends last year, which included 9.15 yards per target, the fourth-most in the league. Fast-forward to 2019 and they’ve allowed a massive 10.0 yards per target to the position. The 87 percent completion-rate is the second-highest mark in football, and though they’ve allowed just one touchdown to tight ends, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to them. George Kittle, Greg Olsen, and Evan Engram all totaled at least six receptions, with both Olsen and Engram topping 110 yards the last two weeks. No, Everett isn’t those guys, but McVay likely knows the Bucs have a soft spot. If you want to fade the receivers of the Rams, it’d be wise to use Everett in a tournament lineup as a contrarian play. In season-long leagues, he should be considered a middling TE2 who has upside, though his floor is quite low, as seen last week. *Update* Higbee appears to be on track to play this week, limiting the appeal with Everett. 

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 47.5
Line: SEA by 5.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: Remember when everyone was worried about Wilson’s weapons that limited his upside? Or how about the fact that his offensive coordinator doesn’t want to pass? He’s currently the No. 4 quarterback in fantasy football and just 4.7 points short of what Patrick Mahomes has done. He’s also on pace for 560 pass attempts, a far cry from the 427 he had last year. It’s also good to see him run a bit, as he’s totaled 81 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. This week should be an interesting one, as Wilson struggled a bit against the Cardinals last year. In the two games, he threw for just 172 yards and no touchdowns, then 152 yards and one touchdown. What a difference a year and a coaching staff make, right? The Cardinals are one of just five teams who have still yet to intercept a pass. They’ve already allowed nine passing scores to the combination of Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and Kyle Allen. Not just the touchdowns, either, as they’ve allowed 8.50 yards per attempt. It may rank as the eighth highest number this year, but that number would’ve led the league last year. They also allowed Lamar Jackson to rush for 120 yards against them two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the addition of D.K. Metcalf has propped Wilson’s yards per attempt to a career-high of 8.6 yards through three games. There’s very little reason to fade Wilson this week, as he should contend for the top quarterback score in Week 4. The Cardinals have allowed 112.6 fantasy points per game to opponents, the third-highest mark in the league. Knowing Chris Carson has some fumbling issues, we could see more of the passing game than usual.

Kyler Murray: Thank goodness for Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo offense that has Murray averaging 45.7 pass attempts per game. His 6.1 yards per attempt is worse than Eli Manning, Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk, and Cam Newton. There’s been some bright spots for sure, but volume has been the key contributor for Murray. The Seahawks are not the fearsome defense most remember them as, and you can see that when they rank as the No. 16 defense against fantasy quarterbacks despite playing at home for 2-of-3 games and against Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, and Teddy Bridgewater. Those quarterbacks have put up average numbers on the Seahawks defense. The Seahawks are also playing at a fast pace, averaging 65.7 plays per game, while the Cardinals rank third at 69.7 plays per game. From a pace perspective, this game should offer a lot of fantasy upside. Their biggest struggles have also been in the slot, where both Fitzgerald and Kirk roam. Provided Murray doesn’t get crushed by the Seahawks defensive line, he should be able to make plays against the Seahawks. It appears that Bradley McDougald (ankle) may not play, either, which happens to be the Seahawks best cover safety. Murray is likely going to stay in the streaming conversation every week with the amount of volume he’s throwing, and this matchup is far from one to avoid. He should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for this divisional showdown.

RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: We don’t know if Penny will play this week but given the fact that he strained his hamstring late last week in a walkthrough, it’s unlikely. That’s good news for Carson, who fumbled the ball for the fourth time in three games. If Penny were healthy, Carson would’ve been on the bench by now, but Pete Carroll has stood by Carson, saying they need to have a short memory. Against the Cardinals, Carson should resume workhorse carries if Penny is out. After shutting down both the Lions and Ravens run games, the Cardinals allowed Christian McCaffrey to run all over them for 153 yards and a touchdown. He’s a different back than Carson, who’s more of a Mark Ingram power-type. Ingram totaled just 47 yards on 13 carries in Week 2 against the Cardinals, while Lamar Jackson rushed for 120 of them. We can’t pretend like Carson’s been great, either, as touchdowns have saved him from his 3.5 yards per carry average thus far. The Cardinals biggest strength is their front-four, so from a rational coaching perspective, why not move the ball through the air, right? We can’t always assume rational coaching is a foolproof plan, but given the nature of the matchup combined with Carson’s fumbling issues, we need to lean that way. Carson should still be plugged in as a middling RB2, but one who may lose some work to C.J. Prosise (oddly enough, Prosise played 45 snaps in Week 3 to Carson’s 37). If Penny is able to practice and play, things get a bit dicier. *Update* Penny did participate in a limited practice on Thursday and Friday, though he’s no sure thing to suit up.

David Johnson: For a team that’s running as many plays as the Cardinals are, it’s odd to see Johnson average 16.3 touches when we know Todd Gurley is averaging 16.0 touches per game, right? Johnson has made his count a bit more, as he’s scored three touchdowns through three games, and currently sits as the RB8 in fantasy. The Seahawks have one of the better front-sevens in football with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney and have limited Joe Mixon and James Conner to 43 yards on 17 carries. We saw Alvin Kamara come in and bounce of every tackler than came his way, but even he totaled just 69 yards on 16 carries, though he added 92 yards and a touchdown through the air. The Seahawks have now allowed 39.6 PPR points through the air alone, which ranks as the sixth-most in football, and that’s promising to Johnson, who cannot rely on his offensive line to open holes in the run-game. The personnel is so much different from last year that you cannot draw conclusions from those matchups anymore. This is the first time Kingsbury’s offense will meet Carroll’s defense in the NFL. With the pressure the Seahawks generate up front, expect the Cardinals to work the screen-game with Johnson. He should be in lineups as a middling RB1 who can get it done no matter the gamescript.

WRs
Tyler Lockett: We’ve now watched him get targeted 26 times over the last two weeks and there’s been nothing but money falling from the sky. He’s caught 21 balls for 233 yards and a touchdown on them. Now playing against a Cardinals secondary that was just tagged for 5/53/1 by Curtis Samuel, you should get excited. Yes, the Cardinals have also been demolished by tight ends, but it’s all relative over the middle of the field, which is where Lockett lives most of the time. The Cardinals as a defensive unit have already allowed 15 passing plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Tramaine Brock is the one who’ll be asked to cover Lockett most of the time. He’s a journeyman who’s played for four teams over the last four years, which tells you all you need to know (that’s worse than Donte Moncrief‘s three teams in three years). Lockett should be in lineups as a WR1 with no regrets.

D.K. Metcalf: Despite a tough matchup in Week 3, Metcalf still managed to snag a 54-yard pass, which propped-up his fantasy numbers a bit. He’s now finished as the WR40, the WR29, and the WR55, highlighting a floor that we didn’t know would exist. He’s about to enter the best matchup of his young career, as the Cardinals will ask one of Byron Murphy or Chris Jones to cover him. You should know that Murphy is 5-foot-11 and Jones is 6-foot, and both have run 40s at 4.55 seconds. Metcalf is 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, and runs a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. He’s a mismatch for a lot of cornerbacks. Despite Lockett leading the team with 28 targets, Metcalf’s 19 targets have equaled more air yards. Murphy and Jones have played a combined 328 snaps in the NFL, so experience isn’t on their side, either. Murphy has already allowed two touchdowns on 17 targets in coverage. Metcalf may not be labeled as an every-week starter just yet in fantasy circles, but he’s getting closer. He’s in the WR3/4 conversation this week with game-breaking upside.

David Moore/Jaron Brown: With Moore back in the lineup last week, he played 20 snaps while Brown played 61 of them. It’s clear they were easing him back into the offense, though Metcalf has stolen a lot of potential some hoped he’d have. Despite Wilson being on pace for 560 pass attempts, Brown saw just six targets through the first three games. It’s best to wait this timeshare out.

Larry Fitzgerald: Another year gone by, another Fitzgerald top-15 season? If the season were to end today, he’d be crowned as the WR13 in PPR formats while at the age of 36 years old. It’s remarkable he’s doing what he is in a new offense, though getting targeted 31 times in three weeks definitely helps. The Cardinals are testing the depth of their opponent’s cornerback/safety unit, as going four-wide requires a lot of bodies near the line of scrimmage, especially when you’re playing a lot of man-coverage. The Seahawks play a lot of zone, which should help, but their depth is a problem. They were so frustrated after Week 1 that they went back and signed Jamar Taylor, a cornerback they cut at the end of preseason. Another knock for their defense would be the safety position, as Tedric Thompson has missed the last two weeks, while Bradley McDougald looks likely to miss this game. That’s a dream scenario for Kingsbury’s offense, so keep trotting Fitzgerald out there as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Christian Kirk: Fitzgerald may be getting all the notoriety right now because he’s scored two touchdowns, but Kirk actually has more targets (32) and receptions (20) through three weeks. He’s clearly a favorite of Murray, though they’ve just failed to connect on a really big play, though with that volume, they’ll come soon. The Seahawks have Jamar Taylor at nickel cornerback, but really don’t have the depth to keep up with the Cardinals four wide receiver sets. We’d typically see a safety come down and help, but the Seahawks may be without both of their starting safeties in this game. Knowing he’s averaging over 10 targets per game, Kirk is an every-week start as your WR3, and this matchup is above average.

KeeSean Johnson/Damiere Byrd: These two have quietly combined for 34 targets over the first three weeks, and the Cardinals felt comfortable enough with them to release Michael Crabtree this week. The downside this week is that Shaquill Griffin will be lined up across from Johnson, and he’s their top cornerback. Not that he can’t be beat, but why target their toughest guy in coverage, especially when your receiver is a rookie with limited experience in the league? Byrd has the better matchup against Tre Flowers, who has been absolutely torched through three games, allowing 15-of-22 passing for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Byrd is one of the fastest players in the league and if the Seahawks are without both Bradley McDougald and Tedric Thompson, we could see fireworks out of him. He’s a sleeper start as a WR4/5 with upside. *Update* Byrd popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury and is looking doubtful for this game. 

TEs
Will Dissly: Death, taxes, and fantasy points to tight ends against the Cardinals. Those are the three things we’re guaranteed in this life. Here’s the finishes for tight ends against them: T.J. Hockenson TE2, Mark Andrews TE1, and Greg Olsen TE2. Those are three of the top-five performances by tight ends all season, and it doesn’t even include one of the tight ends drafted in the top eight rounds of fantasy drafts. Seriously, everything they do versus tight ends is bad. 76.7 percent completion-rate (9th-highest), 11.60 yards per target (most in NFL), and a touchdown every 6.0 targets (most in NFL). All that amounts to a ridiculous 2.93 PPR points per target. That means it’d essentially take three targets to finish as a top-12 tight end against them. Meanwhile, Dissly has done some damage of his own, hauling in 12-of-14 passes for 124 yards and three touchdowns. After seeing just two targets in Week 1, he moved up to five targets in Week 2, then seven targets in Week 3. Knowing how vulnerable the Cardinals are to tight ends, that number should remain high, and Dissly should be started as a TE1 this week.

Charles Clay: Not a single tight end on the Cardinals roster is averaging more than 8.7 routes run per game. They have all combined for five catches for 56 yards. That’s through three full games. You aren’t starting any of them, even if the Seahawks are missing both starting safeties for this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Total: 38.5
Line: CHI by 2.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: One of the craziest stats I saw while researching this week was that Cousins actually has a better quarterback rating while under pressure than he does in a clean pocket. That could be attributed to the fact that all three touchdowns he’s thrown have been under pressure. The fact that he’s completed just 13-of-31 attempts under pressure makes sense, though. That ranks 25th among quarterbacks. Why is this important? Well, he’s playing the Bears defense this weekend. He may be catching a break, though, as Akiem Hicks may have to miss the game, and that’s a big loss for that dominant defensive line. Cousins played in Chicago in Week 11 last year and had a game similar to Case Keenum‘s in Week 3. He threw 46 passes, which propped up his passing numbers to 262/2, though he was also intercepted twice. He played them again in Week 17 with the playoffs on the line and mustered up just 132 yards and one touchdown. The Bears defense has now allowed the second-most completions and the third-most pass attempts against them, as teams have been able to run so many plays (67.0, 7th-most in NFL). Despite those marks, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. If Cousins can hit a few touchdowns under pressure, he’ll be just fine, but given his measly 18.3-point implied team total, you shouldn’t bet on it. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2.

Mitch Trubisky: The Bears seemed to simplify the playbook for Trubisky last week, though it sure helped they were playing the Redskins, and the fact that Trubisky had a clean pocket the majority of time. The game surely built some confidence in the young quarterback, though following that up against the Vikings will be tough. They’ve allowed a surprising six passing scores through three games, though four of them have come in garbage time. It also doesn’t help that they’ve had to play Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers in two of those games. Not that you’re thinking about starting Trubisky, but if you were, here’s your reason to avoid him in Week 4: he played the Vikings defense twice last year and totaled 328 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the two games combined. We have only seen Trubisky run the ball five times for 21 yards this year, so we’re not even getting a decent floor from that. You should continue to be in wait-and-see mode with the third-year starter.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: If we were drafting today, would Cook be the No. 1 overall pick? He’d certainly be in the conversation after he’s now posted three straight games with 110 or more rushing yards and at least one touchdown. He’s also caught seven passes over the last two weeks, raising his floor even more. The zone-blocking scheme has worked wonders, but Cook himself looks as elusive as it gets, slicing and dicing through opposing defenses. He’ll have his toughest task yet in Week 4, as the Bears defense has allowed just 195 yards on 61 carries (3.20 yards per carry) and have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. This is on the heels of allowing just four rushing touchdowns the entire 2018 season, so we’re now at four rushing touchdowns over their last 19 games. None of Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, or Adrian Peterson was able to hit even 40 yards on the ground against them through the first three weeks, which is quite remarkable given Trubisky’s struggles that’s allowed opponents to run 67.0 plays per game. Prior to a new scheme, Cook totaled just 51 yards on 20 carries against the Bears in two games last year. Call me crazy, but I think this game will go a bit differently. He may not wind-up with his fourth-straight 110-yard game, but he must be played as a low-end RB1, at worst.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: It’s rather puzzling to watch the Bears backfield “operate” as it seems like Matt Nagy is out-coaching himself by giving Montgomery 13 carries, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen four carries, and then Mike Davis one carry. It should be noted that a lot of Montgomery’s carries took place late in the game, too. Nagy said they’d use everyone, but then why trade up to draft someone like Montgomery in the third-round? Against the Vikings last year, we saw Jordan Howard total 18/63/0 in the first meeting and then absolutely crush them for 21/109/2 in the second meeting. Cohen totaled 12/51/1 on the ground and 5/31/0 through the air in the two games combined. The bottom line about the 2019 timeshare is that it’s not as valuable because the Bears are averaging just 16.7 points per game compared to the 25.6 points per game they did in 2018. If they were scoring more, you wouldn’t mind the fact that Montgomery is actually seeing 68.5 percent of the running back carries. Oddsmakers don’t see this as a game the Bears offense gets back on track, as they’re projected for just 20.3 points while at home. The Vikings run defense has been just okay through three games, as they did allow the RB2 performance to Aaron Jones in Week 2 when he tallied 150 total yards and a touchdown against them. Still, over their last 19 games, they’ve allowed just 13 running backs to finish as top-24 performers at the running back position. It’s tough to say you can trust any of these running backs, but Montgomery did play a season-high 41-of-63 snaps last week, so he’s the best bet, especially knowing he’s seen all six of their goal-line carries. Consider him a high-end RB3 until this offense starts scoring a bit more. Cohen is going to be a big-play or bust most weeks, but will get touches no matter the gamescript, making him an upside flex play but one with a lower floor than most boring options in that area.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: There are many fantasy owners out there dropping Diggs, which is mind-blowing to me. You guys remember he was the No. 10 wide receiver with Cousins last year, right? It surely hasn’t helped that Cousins has thrown 31 passes in Weeks 1 and 3 combined. Diggs also should’ve had a massive game in Week 2 when Cousins just flat-out missed him multiple times. That game could’ve netted 100-plus yards and two touchdowns. Don’t be the guy who drops him. The Bears cornerbacks have been the weak point through three weeks, allowing a 70.1 percent catch-rate to them. Prince Amukamara looks toast, while Kyle Fuller is a turnover machine, but one who can also be beat if forced to stay in coverage for a long time. In two games against the Bears last year (against these same cornerbacks), Diggs posted 13/126/1 in the first meeting and then 8/47/1 in the second one. He has the ability to beat them, just as Terry McLaurin did last week. This may not be a great matchup but it’s not as bad as it looks considering the recent play of the Bears cornerbacks. Diggs should be considered a high-end WR3 who’ll get back on the map soon enough.

Adam Thielen: The Vikings passing attack hasn’t been what they’d hoped through three weeks but knowing that Cook is doing work on the ground, teams are going to respect that, allowing Thielen and Diggs to run through their secondary with a bit less attention. Oddly enough, the Bears best cornerback through three weeks has been Buster Skrine, who has allowed 13-of-19 passing for 101 yards and a touchdown. While that’s nothing to write home about, it’s the best of the bunch. That’s an average of just 7.8 yards per reception, so it should be interesting to see how Thielen’s matchup goes when he moves into the slot. Here’s something many may have missed over the first two weeks. With Chad Beebe being somewhat of a slot-only receiver, Thielen has been running just 30.9 percent of his routes from the slot, a far cry from the 57.1 percent he was at last year. The Vikings re-signed Laquon Treadwell this week, which is great news for Thielen moving forward, as he’ll likely move back to his old role. You should plug in Thielen as a middling WR2 this week who has a tougher matchup than Diggs, but he’s also been getting more consistent targets.

Allen Robinson: He’s now seen at least seven targets in each game but has still yet to find the end zone. Knowing he’s the WR38 in PPR formats without scoring is a good thing, as it highlights his floor. The Bears are moving him all over the formation, which is big because he’ll draw Xavier Rhodes in coverage this week, though the big cornerback doesn’t travel into the slot. Even when on the perimeter against Rhodes, Trubisky shouldn’t avoid throwing Robinson’s way. The veteran cornerback has looked clunky in coverage this year, particularly against top-tier route runners (like Robinson), allowing 12-of-14 passing for 130 yards in his coverage. The injuries have seemingly added up for him the last few years. He won’t be the only one to see Robinson, but you can start Robinson as a WR3 against a Vikings defense that’s now allowed seven wide receivers to score double-digit PPR points, though none of them have cracked 17.6 points.

Taylor Gabriel: After his three-touchdown performance on Monday night football, many will be running to see what the matchup looks like for the speedster. It’s not a good one, unfortunately. The Vikings Trae Waynes has just as much speed to burn and the Vikings backend of their secondary is as good as it gets. Waynes will allow catches underneath all day long, but isn’t someone who’ll get beat over the top, which means Gabriel would have to get his production from the screen game and shorter routes. Don’t forget that he had just two targets the prior week and that he scored two touchdowns all of last season. Gabriel shouldn’t be in lineups against the Vikings. He also suffered a concussion at the end of the Monday night game, so he may not even be available this week. *Update* He’s been ruled out for this game. 

Anthony Miller: It appears the Bears are capping Miller around 50 percent of the snaps, which is just flat-out ridiculous. Why trade up in the second round to draft a part-time wide receiver? He’s seen just five targets through three weeks, which means he can safely be dropped in fantasy leagues despite his talent. The Vikings got last year’s first-round pick Mike Hughes back last week, and he immediately manned the slot for them. He’s an upgrade over Jayron Kearse, who was playing for an injured Mackensie Alexander. Miller shouldn’t be considered until we see a few things, with one being Trubisky playing better, and two being Miller playing more snaps.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: He saw just one target last week, which was inches away from being a touchdown, though they ruled him out at the half-yard-line. Unfortunately, he saw his eventual replacement Irv Smith Jr. get targeted three times and run nearly as many pass routes. This is likely the end of the line for Rudolph, though the Bears aren’t a matchup to target with tight ends, anyway. No tight end has topped 33 yards against them this year, and there was just one tight end who totaled more than 49 yards against them last year (George Kittle). Rudolph can be dropped, and we may be discussing Smith moving forward.

Trey Burton: It seems Burton is back into his normal role, as he ran 23 routes in Week 3 while no other Bears tight end ran more than seven of them. The Vikings have been allowing quite a bit of production to tight ends this year, as Austin Hooper racked up 9/77/0 on nine targets, while Darren Waller amassed 13 receptions for 134 yards on 14 targets last week. They haven’t allowed a touchdown to them yet, but an 82.1 percent completion-rate is attractive. The Vikings didn’t allow a whole lot of fantasy points to tight ends last year, but when tight ends saw good volume, they did produce. There were just six tight ends who saw more than four targets against them last year and they all scored at least 8.3 PPR points, including Burton who tallied five catches for 33 yards. If Taylor Gabriel is forced to miss this game, it’ll free up a few more targets. Burton should be considered a decent TE2 this week who could see an increased role.