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Fantasy Football Trade Values: Week 8

by Dan Harris | @danharris80 | Featured Writer
Oct 25, 2017

I wrote last week about my father’s passing several years ago, and how fantasy football helped me through it. I received several emails from people sharing similar stories – how the escape of fantasy football helped them through various difficult times in their lives. It’s a pretty great community we’ve got here – except for those fantasy players who tweet at athletes after bad games. Don’t be that guy (or gal).

But, and I’ve also written about this before, there’s a flip side to that coin. Fantasy football can be a ton of fun, but we can all let it become a little too important some times. I know I, for one, can get incredibly moody when a fantasy football day is going south, or when it looks like my rankings have been way off for the week. I’ve even . . . convinced my kids that they’re crazy and I read them four bedtime stories despite reading them just two so I could rush and make it downstairs to see the end of the 4:00 games to see if I would win a matchup.

So while we should all embrace the greatness of fantasy football, let’s remember that it is just a game, in the end. (Note: this does not apply to survivor pools. You are totally allowed to not play “Fairy Princess” and instead watch an otherwise meaningless overtime game and scream at the Titans for failing to put away the Browns if you chose them in survivor. Those are the rules.)

Anyway, we’ve got some major movement in trade values, so let’s check in and see where things stand as we hit the halfway point of the fantasy season.

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Player Current Value Previous Value +/-
Tom Brady 28 31 -3
Drew Brees 26 26
Dak Prescott 25 19 +6
Deshaun Watson 19 19
Carson Wentz 17 14 +3
Russell Wilson 17 15 +2
Kirk Cousins 14 14
Alex Smith 14 12 +2
Cam Newton 11 15 -4
Marcus Mariota 11 14 -3
Matt Ryan 11 12 -1
Matthew Stafford 11 11
Jameis Winston 11 8 +3
Philip Rivers 8 9 -1

There’s not much to talk about with trade values for our quarterbacks this week, as the values haven’t changed dramatically. But we can at least acknowledge that Dak Prescott is a truly elite fantasy option, and needs to be valued as such. Five straight games with multiple touchdowns, four straight games with at least three touchdowns, and two straight games with four touchdowns. He’s your number one ranked quarterback this year, and he’s earned every bit of it.

Also, let’s not value Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota much more than really low-end starting quarterbacks at this point. Newton had seven touchdowns over a two-game stretch against the Patriots and Lions. In his five other games, he has four touchdowns, along with nine – yes nine – interceptions. He’s running again, which is great, but it’s tough to feel like you’ll get solid weekly production from him. As for Mariota, I’m more optimistic long-term, as his poor performances can be chalked up more to his inability to run right now, which should hopefully be gone after his bye week. But he’s got a brutal schedule out of the bye (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh), so it may be awhile before you feel great about starting him again.

Running Back

Player Current Value Previous Value +/-
Le’Veon Bell 70 70
Kareem Hunt 65 65
Todd Gurley 63 60 +3
Leonard Fournette 60 60
Melvin Gordon 60 60
LeSean McCoy 60 54 +6
Devonta Freeman 56 60 -4
Mark Ingram 40 40
Jordan Howard 40 40
Doug Martin 34 37 -3
Lamar Miller 34 36 -2
Ezekiel Elliott 34 24 +10
Carlos Hyde 34 24 +10
Aaron Jones 25 11 +14
Alvin Kamara 24 19 +5
Jay Ajayi 24 34 -10
C.J. Anderson 21 32 -11
DeMarco Murray 21 25 -4
Chris Thompson 18 15 +3
Jerick McKinnon 17 24 -7
Joe Mixon 17 18 -1
Christian McCaffrey 17 18 -1
Tevin Coleman 17 18 -1
Derrick Henry 17 18 -1
Ameer Abdullah 15 13 +2
Duke Johnson 13 10 +3
Dion Lewis 13 6 +7
Javorius Allen 11 8 +3
LeGarrette Blount 10 10
Latavius Murray 9 3 +6
Frank Gore 7 10 -3
Bilal Powell 7 5 +2
James White 7 7
Marshawn Lynch 7 13 -6
Adrian Peterson 7 18 -11
Orleans Darkwa 7 7
Alex Collins 7 7
Marlon Mack 6 5 +1
Matt Forte 5 4 +1
Wendell Smallwood 5 4 +1
Ty Montgomery 5 11 -6
Robert Kelley 5 3 +2
Tarik Cohen 3 8 -5
Mike Gillislee 3 6 -3
Isaiah Crowell 2 4 -2
Jonathan Stewart 2 3 -1
David Johnson 2 6 -4
Thomas Rawls 2 3 -1
Theo Riddick 2 3 -1
Eddie Lacy 2 N/A +2
Darren McFadden 2 4 -2
Alfred Morris 2 4 -2
Giovani Bernard 2 N/A +2
Andre Ellington 2 4 -2
DeAndre Washington 2 N/A +2
Jalen Richard 2 N/A +2

As always, running back values shift more dramatically than the other positions, so let’s discuss some of the big movers.

Three running backs in succession – Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde, and Aaron Jones, take pretty big leaps in value. You don’t need me to explain the Elliott situation to you, and you don’t want me to predict what’s going to happen because, being honest, I’ve been wrong at every turn. I never thought he’d get an injunction in the first place, never thought the Court of Appeals would overturn it once he did get one, and never thought he’d get another temporary restraining order. I know only two things about Zeke at this point: he’s awesome and we have no idea if he’ll have any fantasy relevance after this coming week. His value is basically just the price where I felt I could stomach losing out on him for the rest of the season versus the certainty of not worrying about losing my star player. But his value to you is mostly about your comfort level.

As for Hyde, it’s pretty clear that we don’t need to worry much about Matt Breida absent an injury, and Hyde totaled 88 yards in a game that was over after the first few minutes. He’s safe, absent injury. And it’s difficult to see Ty Montgomery impacting Aaron Jones very much going forward. Those that were brave enough to buy in – well done.

C.J. Anderson and Jay Ajayi take major drops in value. As for the former, he just isn’t getting enough work (averaging 13.5 touches over the previous four games), and the Denver offense looks kind of like what I expected the Jets offense to look like before the season. As for Ajayi, I mean, he’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry and has yet to score a touchdown. But I want to be clear – I think the best is yet to come for both backs, and I’d be trying to acquire them, as long as I could do so at the values I have listed.

If you listened to this week’s waiver wire episode FantasyPros Football Podcast, you heard Tags declare that he’d prefer Alvin Kamara to DeMarco Murray rest of season (to Bobby’s chagrin). You can see I’m with team Tags on this one, as I think Kamara is moving closer to stud value (you can check out the three of our rest of season rankings here). Invest with confidence.

The Patriots back you want to own going forward is Dion Lewis, though White is certainly an option, especially in PPR leagues. The thing with Lewis is that he’s figured out how to win Bill Belichick’s heart – gain positive yards and don’t fumble. Gillislee is still working on the equation. Trusting a Patriots running back is always dicey, but I’m investing in Lewis where I can.

Wide Receiver

Player Current Value Previous Value +/-
Antonio Brown 67 67
A.J. Green 62 62
Mike Evans 62 59 +3
DeAndre Hopkins 55 55
Michael Thomas 55 55
Dez Bryant 53 51 +2
Julio Jones 53 53
Michael Crabtree 45 45
Brandin Cooks 42 39 +3
Tyreek Hill 42 32 +10
Doug Baldwin 42 27 +15
Keenan Allen 32 42 -10
Chris Hogan 32 35 -3
Jarvis Landry 29 22 +7
Amari Cooper 29 19 +10
Stefon Diggs 25 32 -7
Demaryius Thomas 25 25
Alshon Jeffery 24 24
Nelson Agholor 24 15 +9
Jordy Nelson 22 46 -24
Larry Fitzgerald 22 27 -5
DeSean Jackson 22 17 +5
T.Y. Hilton 21 32 -11
Pierre Garcon 20 22 -2
Kelvin Benjamin 20 21 -1
Will Fuller 20 20
Rishard Matthews 19 20 -1
Adam Thielen 19 20 -1
Devin Funchess 18 18
Emmanuel Sanders 17 9 +8
Devante Parker 15 18 -3
Marvin Jones 14 14
Danny Amendola 14 14
Cooper Kupp 14 12 +2
Ted Ginn 14 5 +9
Sterling Shepard 14 12 +2
Golden Tate 12 17 -5
Jermaine Kearse 10 9 +1
Sammy Watkins 9 12 -3
Davante Adams 9 22 -13
Kenny Stills 9 N/A +9
Jordan Matthews 9 N/A +9
Marqise Lee 7 4 +3
Robby Anderson 7 3 +4
Kenny Golladay 5 N/A +5
Allen Hurns 5 3 +2
JuJu Smith-Schuster 5 2 +3
Randall Cobb 5 14 -9
Josh Doctson 4 2 +2
Tyrell Williams 3 7 -4
Martavis Bryant 3 9 -6
Robert Woods 3 2 +1
Corey Davis 3 N/A +3
John Brown 3 16 -13
Paul Richardson 3 3
Mohamed Sanu 3 N/A +3
Willie Snead 2 5 -3
Donte Moncrief 2 5 -3
Tyler Lockett 2 5 -3

So, let us start with the obvious. All Packers and Cardinals receivers take major drops in value. I was willing to give Brett Hundley the benefit of the doubt, but no longer. While he may be able to lead the Packers to some victories and develop into a competent quarterback in time, there’s just no way you can think of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, or Randall Cobb as you once did. As for the Arizona receivers, John Brown loses most of his value while Larry Fitzgerald sees a drop in, but doesn’t completely lose, his value. In the only game Drew Stanton started last season, Fitzgerald caught six of eight targets for 81 yards with two touchdowns. It’s a downgrade, yes, but I’m not dumping Fitzgerald for pennies on the dollar just yet.

I am truly not certain if I’d rather have Alshon Jeffery or Nelson Agholor going forward. Like Sammy Watkins, Jeffery is the most talented receiver on his team. Like Watkins, Jeffery’s quarterback is content to take what the defense gives him and not force the ball to his best receiver unnecessarily. Better things are ahead for Jeffery (and that may be where things differ with Watkins!), but Agholor is here to stay, and he has major value going forward.

A couple of other quick thoughts: Kenny Stills is a viable play so long as DeVante Parker is out, including this week against Baltimore if Parker has to miss the game. Check his numbers last year with Matt Moore – the gunslinger approach works for Stills. Jordan Matthews should get some major work going forward now that he’s back and from injury and Charles Clay is still sidelined. Deonte Thompson is fine, but Matthews should get a lot of work from here on out. I liked Josh Doctson‘s snap count. That’s pretty much all I liked about Doctson on Monday night. Hopefully, better things are to come.

Tight End

Player Current Value Previous Value +/-
Rob Gronkowski 48 48
Zach Ertz 34 28 +6
Travis Kelce 26 26
Evan Engram 15 12 +3
Jordan Reed 14 9 +5
Jimmy Graham 12 12
Hunter Henry 12 5 +7
Cameron Brate 9 12 -3
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 9 9
Delanie Walker 7 12 -5
Kyle Rudolph 5 9 -4
Jason Witten 4 4
Jared Cook 4 3 +1
Jack Doyle 3 3
Tyler Kroft 3 N/A +3
Ed Dickson 3 3
George Kittle 3 N/A +3
Austin Hooper 3 3
O.J. Howard 3 N/A +3

I’m not certain there should be that big a gap between Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski. I think about this constantly. I am not joking.

Over the Chargers’ first four games, Antonio Gates played 147 snaps to Hunter Henry‘s 132.  In the last three games, Gates has played 96 snaps, while Henry has played 160. The Chargers have won their last three games. I think those snap count trends are here to stay, no?

O.J. Howard was awesome on Sunday! He’s not going to be a reliable TE1 going forward. Don’t @ me!

Until next week, friends!

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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