Cincinnati Bengals

QB
Joe Burrow: Trusting a rookie quarterback in fantasy? Nonsense. Now? After we practically had no offseason? It sounds crazy, and it probably is. However, I don’t know if I’ve seen a quarterback with Burrow’s confidence and swag come into the league in a long time. He’s also walking into a situation where he has one of the best wide receiver depth charts in the league (when healthy). The offense that Zac Taylor ran last year presented plenty of opportunity, as Andy Dalton finished with the 12th most expected fantasy points despite missing three full games. He threw the ball at least 36 times in 11-of-13 games, including three games with 50-plus attempts. The offensive line is a problem, though it helps he’ll get last year’s first-round pick Jonah Williams back at left tackle. While the pass attempts and talent at wide receiver are great, what should attract you to Burrow is his willingness to run with the ball. Sure, he broke records as a passer at LSU, but he also rushed for nearly 800 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two years. That adds breakout potential to a quarterback, so when you combine that with his arm talent, he makes for an ideal QB2 in fantasy. The Bengals defense is in a complete rebuild mode, and while they’ve added talent this offseason, it’ll take time for them to come together. They allowed 26.2 points per game last year (8th most), so if they continue to struggle, Burrow could become 2020’s version of Jameis Winston.

RBs
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: It’s one thing to project a breakout for a player due to an increase in opportunity. It’s another thing to project a breakout due to an increase in offensive production. Mixon got the opportunity last year under Zac Taylor, as he totaled 18-plus touches on 10 different occasions. But he’ll need the offense to take a step forward in 2020 if he wants to ascend into stardom, as he’s been an RB2 or better in just 57 percent of his games over the last two years. It makes sense to expect the offense to be better in 2019, as No. 1 pick Joe Burrow will be under center, and they’ll have last year’s first-round pick Jonah Williams back on the offensive line. Knowing Mixon’s workload and potential of the offense, he has top-three upside. However, for that to happen, he’d need to get more involved in the passing game. Did you know that Ronald Jones had just five fewer targets than Mixon last year? Mixon’s talent is obvious in the passing game, so we can hope for a leap in targets, but it seems unlikely with A.J. Green back, as well as the addition of Tee Higgins in the second round of the draft. Mixon is likely going to be a RB1 this year, but the top-six upside does require a slight change to the way he’s used in the passing game. The talent is certainly there. He belongs in the RB6-RB8 range in drafts. Despite the Bengals drafting both Trayveon Williams and Rodney Anderson in 2018, the Bengals used just two running backs last year (Mixon and Bernard). Anderson was on IR, but Williams never got a single touch despite being active most weeks. That tells us that Bernard is the clear handcuff to Mixon. Knowing how much opportunity Mixon gets as the lead back, it’s surprising how devalued Bernard is in fantasy. He’s someone to keep on the end of rosters, should Mixon be a late scratch. He’d be an every-week RB2 at worst if Mixon were to miss time. *Update* Mixon has been in and out of Bengals training camp with some whispers that it could be due to his contract situation, while others are reporting it’s migraines or “minor” injuries. Whatever the case, this is the type of thing you use as a tiebreaker when choosing between two players. 

WRs
A.J. Green: I get it, he hasn’t been healthy the last two years. However, when he’s been on the field, Green has been a legitimate superstar. Since 2000, here’s the list of wide receivers who’ve posted WR2 or better type numbers at a higher percentage than Green: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham. That’s the end of the list. He’s played his entire career with Andy Dalton. Now moving to Joe Burrow, the quality of the targets should improve. You could argue that Green didn’t have a chance to work with Burrow this offseason, but that’s the case with all of Burrow’s new group of pass catchers. There is legitimate top-10 upside with Green, which is extremely hard to find where he’s being drafted. There’s risk, but with where he’s being drafted, it’s worth it.

Tyler Boyd: After finishing as the WR17 in 2018 and then the WR23 in 2019, Boyd’s being disrespected in fantasy drafts, coming off the board outside the top 30 wide receivers. Sure, A.J. Green is back in the lineup, but drafters aren’t high on him, either. Oddly enough, Boyd was a better fantasy asset with Green in the lineup in 2018. Boyd is 25 years old, it’s surely not his age. Do people really think that Joe Burrow will be a downgrade from Andy Dalton? That can’t be it. Looking at Burrow at LSU, his top receiver (stat-wise) was Justin Jefferson, who put up a stupid 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jefferson was his slot receiver. While it’s a different offense, we know Boyd saw 147 targets in the first year of Zac Taylor’s offense. He’s the ideal WR3 who’s already proven to be better than that, and if the public is right on Green being “done”, then Boyd would be a mega-hit in fantasy.

John Ross: We don’t know for certain who the No. 3 wide receiver will be in the offense to start the year, but knowing there’s been limited workouts, my guess would be that Ross is the guy. He compliments A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd well, while Tee Higgins would clash with Green. If you don’t think Ross is a good football player, I urge you to get on NFL Game Pass and watch him. There were a lot of times he was open for what would’ve been a long gain/touchdown, but Andy Dalton simply missed him. Insert Joe Burrow, who completed 76.3 percent of his passes at LSU last year, including feather-like touch on his deep ball. Ross saw five-plus targets in 6-of-8 games last year, so it’s clear that Zac Taylor felt he could make a difference. With both Green and Boyd healthy, Ross won’t be seeing that consistent of targets, but should either of them miss time, Ross would be a plug-and-play upside option. Contrary to belief around the industry, Ross should be selected in one of the final rounds of your draft. *Update* Ross had to leave the team during camp to go and be with his newborn baby and mother, who both tested positive for COVID. Stay tuned for updates.

Tee Higgins: I believe the Bengals selected their eventual A.J. Green replacement in Higgins. He’s not the most physically gifted or athletic receiver, but Higgins continually makes plays look easy. The game simply comes to him naturally. He has a lot of room to grow as a complete receiver, though, so he should be learning and paying attention to Green’s habits throughout the 2020 season. Should Green miss time, Higgins would likely get the nod over the inefficient Auden Tate, who finished 23 spots lower than he should’ve based on his expected fantasy output. Some are expecting Higgins to start as the No. 3 wide receiver over John Ross, but I’m not one of them, especially with the shortened offseason. If any of the starters were to miss time, Higgins would absolutely be worth a pickup.

Auden Tate: The return of A.J. Green pushed Tate down the depth chart. The second-round draft pick of Tee Higgins buried him. Despite playing just 12 games, Tate ranked 51st in targets among wide receivers last year with 80 of them. Despite being 6-foot-5 and 228 pounds, he scored on just one of them. Clearly, the Bengals did not think of him as Green’s successor. It’s possible that he’s the handcuff to Green because he knows the offense and played that role last year, but it’d only be a matter of time before the rookie Higgins took over.

TEs
C.J. Uzomah and Drew Sample: The combination of Uzomah and Tyler Eifert totaled 103 targets last year, which isn’t bad on the surface, but the tight ends amounted for just a 17.4 percent target share despite A.J. Green missing the entire season. It did seem like Uzomah took over as the starter as the year went on, catching 16-of-20 targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns over the final five games of the season. It surely helped that Sample was inactive from Week 11 forward. Knowing that Sample was a second-round pick under this coaching staff, they’re likely going to look for reasons to get him on the field. Sample did grade out as a better blocker than Uzomah in both run and pass blocking, too. They’re both going to get playing time, but they’ll cancel each other out when it comes to upside. Unless one misses time, it’ll be a situation to avoid.

Cleveland Browns

QB
Baker Mayfield: It was a nightmare sophomore season for Mayfield, who regressed rather than progressed. His completion percentage dropped 4.4 points, yards per attempt dropped 0.5 yards, he threw five less touchdowns, and threw seven more interceptions. Wait, I thought Odell Beckham was supposed to help? It’s clear that Freddie Kitchens hurt all players involved, as even Nick Chubb was extremely inefficient in the red zone, totaling negative 16 yards on nine carries inside the five-yard-line. Let’s just erase that season, shall we? Kevin Stefanski will be the new head coach and play caller. Do we have a lot to go off? Not really. What we do know is that they added two offensive linemen who’ll make a difference at the most important positions, as well as add a pass-catching tight end. It seems they would like to replicate what the Vikings did last year under Stefanski, which would be brutal for Mayfield’s outlook, as Kirk Cousins threw the ball just 444 times. Mayfield has some mobility but not enough to overcome that low of volume through the air. But knowing that’s possible, we know Mayfield could have a lower floor than most would like to admit. He should be treated as an excellent QB2 in Superflex/2QB formats, while being looked at as a streamer in standard leagues.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: There are a lot of people who’ve been using last year’s stats to highlight why Hunt will have a big role in this offense and why Chubb lost a lot of upside because of it. But here’s the thing – it’s a brand-new offense with a brand-new coach. Last year’s splits that highlight Hunt as the No. 19 running back and Chubb as the No. 15 running back from Week 10 forward don’t make sense. With that being said, Hunt is talented enough where they’ll give him more touches than the average backup. The duo combined for 235 touches over the eight games they played together, or 29.4 per game. That’s… a lot. However, the Vikings running backs combined for 32.5 touches per game in 2019, which is all we really have to go off with Kevin Stefanski. If the Browns defense plays up to their talent level, we should see 28-plus touches to the running backs most weeks. Chubb is one of the better 1-2 down running backs in the league and should be getting 14-18 carries per game with a few targets as well. My current projections have him with 262 carries and 42 targets, so combined with his efficiency, he’s my RB9, or low-end RB1. I don’t feel like he gets enough work in the passing game to be considered a first-round pick in 2020, though he has the RB1 talent if Hunt wasn’t around. As for Hunt, you’re getting a two-for-one. He’s someone who should offer flex value most weeks with around 6-8 carries and 3-4 targets but would be a plug-and-play RB1 if Chubb missed any time. In a season with so many question marks, that is worth more than most realize. Snagging Hunt as a high-end RB3 makes plenty of sense.

WRs
Odell Beckham Jr: What in the world happened to Beckham in 2019? If we were replaying last season, we wouldn’t be drafting him until the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. But that’s where fantasy players go wrong. That’s a one-year sample size. We had 59 career games prior to that we can look at where he was the best game-by-game fantasy wide receiver of all-time. Which do you trust? Everyone on the Browns struggled last year and knowing that Beckham was playing through a hernia only added to the disappointment. 2019 was the first year he’d posted WR2 or better numbers in less than 66.7 percent of his games (which is ridiculous). We know the offense is changing, but that also comes with some concerns. While in Minnesota last year, Kevin Stefanski’s wide receivers combined for just 201 targets and a 43.1 percent target share, which ranked as the fourth-lowest mark in football. Stefon Diggs, who is also very talented, saw just 94 targets in 15 games last year. While I don’t expect the Browns to be as run-heavy as the Vikings were, it’s an added level of concern. But here’s the thing – it’s not like a lot of the wide receivers in the 10-15 range don’t come with similar issues or question marks. Beckham has done it before and has true No. 1 overall wide receiver upside. He’s in the prime of his career at 27 years old and his only competition for targets (Jarvis Landry) is coming off hip surgery. Getting him as your high-end WR2 is worth it.

Jarvis Landry: Did you know there have been just three wide receivers who’ve finished as a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last five years? Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Landry. The way he got there in 2019 wasn’t ideal (posted WR2 or better numbers just 31.3 percent of the time), but it was a horrendous offense. The issue now is that he’s coming off hip surgery this offseason. While it seems like his recovery has gone well, that could be something to hold him back from being as consistent as he’s been the last few years in Cleveland. Another hurdle is the limited targets that may be available in Stefanski’s offense. The Vikings receivers combined for just 201 targets last year, and it would appear the Browns are trying to recreate that offense with both Austin Hooper and David Njoku in 2TE sets, while using the run game heavily. There’s been just two times in Landry’s career where he’s finished with more than 7.0 yards per target, and he’s scored more than six touchdowns just once. If he’s cut down anywhere close to the 100-110-target mark, which seems very likely, it’s really going to hurt his fantasy impact. Because of that, he’s a WR3, and one who might be a bit dicier than in past years.

Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones: Knowing that Kevin Stefanski wants to run a lot of 2TE sets, there won’t be a lot of 3WR sets, so it makes sense that the Browns didn’t heavily invest in a third wide receiver this offseason. Instead, they re-signed Higgins, and then stole Peoples-Jones in the sixth round of the draft. Higgins has some chemistry with Baker Mayfield, so he’s likely to have the first crack at the job, while Peoples-Jones will be a player in this league at some point. Knowing that Stefanski’s offense is low-volume and that Vikings wide receivers had the fourth-lowest target share in the league last year, it’s tough to say either of them are lottery tickets in 2020 redraft leagues. I will say that you should scoop up Peoples-Jones in dynasty leagues, though.

TEs
Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant: Yes, the Browns just paid Hooper a lot of money. Yes, the Browns also picked up the fifth-year option on Njoku’s contract, and then drafted a tight end in the fourth round. What a mess. This is a lot like the Vikings duo of Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith last year. Don’t forget that the Vikings paid Rudolph a lot of money (4 years, $36 million) just one year ago, after they had already drafted Smith. Do you know how that situation played out? Rudolph got 48 targets while Smith got 47 of them. The Vikings tight ends combined for 105 targets last year when you add in Tyler Conklin. Even if you want to weight them more towards Hooper, what are you looking at? A 55/40/10 between these three tight ends? The magic number for a tight end to be considered a TE1 is right around 80 projected targets. We cannot get there with Hooper. Njoku and his agent know that this is a bad situation and want out, but the Browns have said they’re holding onto him because Stefanski loves to use two tight ends. The best-case scenario with Hooper is that he gets close to the 70-target mark and scores at least six touchdowns, though I don’t see it happening. I’m staying away from this tight end unit unless some injuries arise. If Hooper or Njoku were to get hurt, the other would turn into an attractive option.

Dallas Cowboys

QB
Dak Prescott: We all know that Cam Newton was a pretty dang good fantasy quarterback throughout his career, right? Like, one of the best of this generation. Or how about Drew Brees, he’s been extremely good and consistent throughout his career. What happens when we look at them and Prescott side-by-side?

If this doesn’t get you to understand how good Prescott has been, nothing will. He’s never finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks and is about to play in the same system that just netted him the QB2 finish. Did I mention he also had CeeDee Lamb added to his arsenal? And do you remember all those years we drafted Aaron Rodgers as the top quarterback? That was with Mike McCarthy as his head coach (Prescott’s new coach). If you’re on the clock and choosing between Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson, I’m choosing Prescott. There’s the least number of variables with him, though Wilson is close. I’ll leave you with this: Since Amari Cooper joined the team, Prescott has completed 616-of-916 passes (67.2 percent) for 7,369 yards (8.04 yards per attempt), 44 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. That’s over a span of 25 games. He’s also rushed for 346 yards and seven touchdowns.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: Did you know that Elliott is the only running back over the last five years who has three top-five finishes to his name? Oddly enough, he’s never finished as the No. 1 running back. He’s definitely a candidate to finish there, especially when you consider his increased usage in the passing game the last two seasons. After totaling 78 targets his first two seasons, he’s been boosted to 166 of them the last two years, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys lost Jason Witten and his 83 targets, as well as Randall Cobb and his 83 targets. The only concern you have is the Cowboys wanting to involve Pollard a bit more to keep Elliott fresh as the season goes on. Pollard only totaled 101 touches last year, but he was explosive with them. No matter the case, Elliott is a slam-dunk top-five pick, and I’d likely take him at No. 2 overall, as Saquon Barkley‘s schedule is absolutely brutal to start the year. Drafting Pollard as one of the best backups in the game makes tons of sense, as he’d walk into a league-winning role should Elliott miss time. On top of that, we may get flex viability with McCarthy as the head coach, as he used the combination of Eddie Lacy and James Starks in somewhat of a timeshare. I’m not saying Lacy is close to Elliott, but rather that McCarthy has been known to do a slight split in backfields. There’s a slight possibility that Pollard has a bigger role in 2020.

WRs
Amari Cooper: It’s somewhat maddening that Cooper can’t get the 150-plus targets that some do, as he’s continually one of the most efficient receivers in the league. Did you know Michael Gallup averaged more targets per game than Cooper last year? Cooper’s injury may have played into that but it didn’t stop him from being one of the best in the league. Based on the number of his targets and where they took place on the field, Cooper should’ve finished as the No. 23 wide receiver, and not the No. 9 receiver he did. In fact, he was the only receiver in the league who scored 20-plus more fantasy points than he was expected to in both the red zone and outside the red zone. The addition of CeeDee Lamb isn’t going to make getting targets any easier for Cooper, who’s now seen 195 targets in 25 games with the Cowboys. Because he’s not getting the gaudy numbers that some are, Cooper should be considered a semi-volatile WR2 in fantasy who has more WR1 upside than most on a weekly basis. If Cooper were to get 150 targets, I have zero doubts that he’d finish as a top-three receiver, but as we’ve seen, that just doesn’t happen.

Michael Gallup: It’s funny how I’ve become someone who’s viewed as a “Gallup hater” in some circles. Let it be known that Gallup was one of my favorite receiver prospects in the 2018 draft class (here’s the scouting profile I did). But guys, he’s not better than Amari Cooper. It’s clear that Gallup benefits from Cooper’s presence in the lineup and has fit into his field-stretching role rather nicely. Now, the question becomes: How much does CeeDee Lamb affect Gallup’s target share? When Lamb was first drafted, I was concerned, but after sitting down and going through projections, I was still able to find 100-105 targets for him in the offense, which should net him a WR3 finish in fantasy. There are some risks taking him inside the top-30 because you’re taking on some of the risk that Lamb doesn’t eat into his target share a bit more, though it’s a smaller risk knowing we’ve had a shortened offseason with no preseason action. I have Gallup as a back-end WR3 in fantasy with upside for a bit more if Lamb takes time to develop, which is not out of question. If Cooper missed time, Gallup would be my favorite receiver in the offense and a high-end WR2 start most weeks.

CeeDee Lamb: When the Cowboys drafted Lamb at No. 17 overall, I wondered if he’d immediately take over Michael Gallup‘s No. 2 role in the offense, but cooler heads prevailed. Lamb is coming from the Big-12 where the defenses are pretty horrendous, so the learning curve might be bigger than some expect. On top of that, he’s going to have zero game experience with no preseason. It seems very likely that Lamb will start out as a slot-heavy receiver, which should help his transition into the faster pace of the NFL, and it’s a role that Randall Cobb saw 83 targets in last year. Keep in mind that was Cobb’s first year in the offense, so we should see Lamb reach or exceed that number. But temper expectations in fantasy, as he’s clearly the third option this year behind Cooper and Gallup. He’s someone who belongs in the WR4/5 conversation. If either of Cooper or Gallup were to miss time, Lamb would be a WR3 start with upside for more.

TEs
Blake Jarwin: Did you know that Jarwin and Jason Witten combined for 124 targets last year? With Witten gone, a lot of targets are up for the taking in Kellen Moore‘s obviously tight end friendly offense. Over the last two seasons, Jarwin has seen a total of 77 targets, turning them into 58 receptions for 672 yards and six touchdowns. That’s 132.2 half PPR points, which would’ve ranked eight among tight ends. While he may not be as efficient, it’s extremely likely that he sees at least 77 targets this season. Think about it… sure, CeeDee Lamb might see more than the 83 targets than Randall Cobb did last year, but not that many more. Even if Jarwin sees just the 83 targets that Witten left behind, he’ll be a top-12 tight end in 2020. With where he’s going in drafts, it’s a no brainer to take him as a late-round upside pick. With all the mouths they have at wide receiver, it’s tough to see a top-three ceiling, but hey, we aren’t looking for that.

Denver Broncos

QB
Drew Lock: Well, there’s one thing that’s for certain. If Lock can’t get it done with the skill-position players around him now, he never will. The Broncos went out and signed Melvin Gordon in free agency, then drafted top wideout Jerry Jeudy in the first round, speedster KJ Hamler in the second round, then Lock’s former teammate Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. Pair them with Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay, and Noah Fant, and you suddenly have one of the most talented rooms in the league. It’s tough to judge anything we saw from Lock in his rookie season, as he was asked to start late in the season, and it was a different coordinator. What we do know is that Pat Shurmur is his new offensive coordinator, and he’s produced some solid quarterback play in his time. The last time he was a coordinator was 2017 when he coached Case Keenum to a 68 percent completion rate, 22 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. My concern with Lock is that this is still Vic Fangio’s team, and their defense should be very good. If Fangio doesn’t give full reigns to Shurmur, we’re likely to see a defensive-minded, run-heavy offense, which would cripple Lock’s fantasy appeal. The high end for Lock’s pass attempts is likely in the 525-attempt range, which isn’t great for a quarterback with limited mobility. He’s a great target in 2QB leagues, but I wouldn’t trust him as an every-week starter in 1QB formats.

RBs
Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, and Royce Freeman: The signing of Gordon was puzzling to many, as Lindsay has been a rock-solid running back, while Freeman was a third-round pick just two years ago. But still, we must react to what is happening. The last time Shurmur was an offensive coordinator was with the Vikings where Latavius Murray totaled 216 carries while Jerick McKinnon totaled 150 of them. Neither were particularly efficient, as they were both sub-4.0 yards per carry. While I don’t see Lindsay getting as many carries as McKinnon did, he’s likely to put a dent into Gordon’s value this year. Best case for Gordon is that it’s a 65/35 split, which would enable him to get 15-18 touches per game, though I believe it’ll be closer to 60/40. Knowing how talented Lindsay is, you have to err on the side of caution with Gordon, who should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 with limited upside as long as Lindsay is healthy. Lindsay is not someone who’ll offer RB3/flex value every week, but he should be close. It’s clear the Broncos are done with Freeman, so if something were to happen to Gordon and he missed time, Lindsay would be a borderline RB1. Treat him as a high-end RB4 in drafts and you’ll be happy.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: What a year for Sutton in 2019, eh? He didn’t finish as high as some thought (WR19), but it was a miracle he finished there if you were to go back and watch some of the passes he came down with. His 125 targets were the 15th most among wide receivers, though it’s hard to see that continuing. He had zero competition for targets last year, which is why he saw over 50 percent of the ones that went to wide receivers. He’ll now have to contend with first-round pick Jerry Jeudy, who’s the most polished receiver who’s come out in the last five years, and second-round pick KJ Hamler in the starting lineup. That’s not to mention Melvin Gordon, who’s an established pass-catcher out of the backfield. Sutton is clearly a star, but this offense is now littered with talented pass catchers. There were just two games all last year Sutton saw fewer than seven targets, but I think that number goes up this year. He was a middling WR2 last year with those high target totals, yet he’s being drafted essentially where he finished last year, and that’s despite the improved talent around him. If Sutton wants to finish better than a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, he’s going to need double-digit touchdowns, and that’s just not something I can predict given the talent around him.

Jerry Jeudy: Over the last five years, I haven’t scouted a wide receiver who was more pro-ready and well-rounded than Jeudy. With essentially no offseason, it’s going to be difficult for him to walk in and develop instant chemistry with Drew Lock. At the same time, everyone on the team is learning a new offense, as Pat Shurmur has walked in as the offensive coordinator. Still, it’ll be hard for him to overtake Courtland Sutton as the team’s leader in targets. Jeudy can play many roles, including being the deep threat down the field, playing the possession-style role, or moving into the slot, which he did regularly at Alabama. Sutton isn’t someone who’ll move into the slot very often, which is a good thing for Jeudy, as Shurmur’s slot receivers have done damage in the past. Again, the negative is that fellow rookie KJ Hamler is also a slot presence who’s going to get some playing time. There’s a path to Jeudy being a Terry McLaurin-like fantasy option this year, but his path to targets is not as easy. If Sutton stays on the field, Jeudy will be too inconsistent to trust on a weekly basis. He’s still not a bad on to have on your bench as a WR4/5, because the talent is there.

KJ Hamler: It’s tough to like a rookie who’s likely the fifth option in the passing game, right? I’ll tell you that Hamler is a baller and can play both in the slot and on the perimeter. He’s likely going to break a few plays this year that have you wondering if he’s worth a pickup, but we must always go back to the fact that he’s the fifth option (Sutton, Jeudy, Fant, Gordon all ahead) on a run-heavy team that will only come on the field in 3WR sets. If there’s an injury to one of Jeudy or Sutton, he’s someone I’d snag off waivers, but you don’t need to draft him.

DaeSean Hamilton: He’s buried with the acquisitions of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. I’d argue that Hamilton had his chance to make a dent in the league last year, as he was the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver behind Courtland Sutton but didn’t really earn much with his role. He saw 52 targets but caught just 53 percent of them for 297 yards and one touchdown. The Broncos said no thanks to his 5.5 yards per target through the first two years of his career. He’s has more talent than what we’ve seen, but he’s not an enticing option in fantasy football.

TEs
Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam: It was a successful rookie year for Fant. So many fantasy players have seemingly forgotten it typically takes a few years for tight ends to become someone you can rely on. He saw 66 targets his rookie year and ranked 15th in expected fantasy points among tight ends. The discerning part is that he didn’t tally more than four targets in any game with Drew Lock. In fact, he averaged just 2.8 targets per game with him, while averaging 4.7 targets per game with the other quarterbacks. We’ve now watched the Broncos add three talented pass-catching options in Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon this offseason, which won’t help his target share go up. On top of that, they selected Okwuegbunam in the fourth round, who happens to be Lock’s old college tight end who he loved targeting in the red zone. Fant is still the top tight end on this team, but I cannot say he’s a lock to see 70-plus targets in 2020. That puts him outside the starting tight end territory, and knowing his ceiling might be around 80-85 targets, I would probably look elsewhere in the TE10-15 range for someone with true breakout potential. Okwuegbunam isn’t someone you should be looking at unless there’s an injury to Fant. Even then, he’d be a touchdown-reliant option.

Detroit Lions

QB
Matthew Stafford: There are a lot of people talking about Stafford as a sleeper this year and that he’s undervalued based on what we saw last year, which was just eight games. Did we forget that Stafford he has 10 other years of sample size to look at? It’s hard to say this is his most talented wide receiver corps, as he played with Calvin Johnson for a long time. Take a look at his Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between numbers since 2012:

It’s clear who Stafford is, right? I mean, he’s a very good, consistent quarterback, but last year was the first time he’s finished as a top-12 quarterback more than half the time. By comparison, Carson Wentz has hit at least 50 percent in each of the last three years. Stafford’s 8.6 yards per attempt was easily the highest mark of his career, as he never topped 7.9 yards per attempt before. In fact, he’d been over 7.6 just once. I like Stafford and think he’s undervalued from a real-life standpoint, but he’s a high-end QB2 in fantasy who’ll give you QB1-type numbers just under half the time. You also can’t forget about his back problems that shut him down last year.

RBs
D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson: This is a tough backfield to crack without a preseason, as the Lions have a solid running back in Johnson, but that didn’t stop them from drafting Swift at the top of the second round. Johnson has had difficulty staying healthy, as he’s played just 18 games over his first two seasons, which is likely the reason they pounced on Swift, who is a true three-down back. This backfield produced 425 total touches last year, which amounts to 26.6 per game. That’s not a great number for a backfield that’s projected to be somewhat of a timeshare. Let’s pretend that Johnson gets 8-10 touches per game, and then the combination of Bo Scarbrough and Ty Johnson get 2-4 touches per game. Suddenly, we’re looking at 12-16 touches per game for Swift, which is a realistic scenario. He’d be leading the timeshare but could be relied upon as no more than an RB2/3. That’s where he’d be without an injury to Johnson. Worst case scenario is that Johnson remains healthy and they’re a hot-hand committee that you’ll have a tough time predicting from week-to-week. If you get Swift as a middling RB3, that’s fine, but his upside in this offense doesn’t justify anything higher. Johnson is a tough one to gauge and will likely turn out to be the better value, but what does that mean without an injury to Swift? Not much. Treat him as a handcuff with upside for more. *Update* This backfield appears headed for a 50/50 split to start the season, as both running backs have dealt with minor injuries through camp. 

WRs
Kenny Golladay: There’s a natural trajectory for a wide receivers career, and that’s why Golladay is being drafted as a top-10 receiver. Many would say that he finished as a top-six receiver last year, but that’s a weak argument because he posted WR3 or better numbers in just 56.3 percent of his games (see all players in Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between). There’s certainly a ceiling with Golladay, but when Marvin Jones is in the lineup, that ceiling is capped. Here are Golladay’s stats from when both are on the field compared to when Jones is off the field:

You can see his targets take quite the hit with Jones in the lineup, as 6.0 targets per game would amount to just under 100 targets on the season. Again, we have natural progression to his career while Jones deals with age, so there should be a shift towards Golladay, but I believe he’s best suited as a WR2 on your fantasy team who may have WR1 upside if a big shift takes place.

Marvin Jones: Despite playing just 13 games and playing with a few backup quarterbacks, Jones finished as a top-30 wide receiver last year. Not many realize that he gets as many targets as Kenny Golladay when they’re both on the field. Here are the game logs over the last two years where Golladay was a full-time player:

Does that seem like the two players should be 80 picks apart in ADP? I understand saying that Golladay is on the rise, but saying that Jones will fall off completely would be a mistake considering the evidence supporting him the last two seasons. Jones is on the last year of his contract and 30 years old, so he’s playing for one last contract. Jones is someone who you can play as a WR3 roughly half the time, which means he’s more of a WR3/4-type player than he is an every-week WR3, but at his cost, he’s not a bad bet at all.

Danny Amendola: Raise your hand if you knew Amendola had 96 targets last year. Now put your hand down, liar. It was his first year with the team and he clearly had a big role, though he turned those 96 targets into just 678 yards and a touchdown. It does help his projection to know that Geronimo Allison opted out, as he’s someone who could’ve stole slot snaps. Despite being targeted five-plus times in 10-of-15 games last year, Amendola topped 47 yards just four times, and it’s not as if touchdowns will help make up for that, as he’s scored once every 37.9 targets over the course of his 11-year career. He’s a last-ditch bye-week option who’ll likely have somewhat of a stable floor in PPR formats, but that’s about it.

Quintez Cephus: The Lions tried to add depth this offseason, snagging Geronimo Allison in free agency, then snagging Cephus in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. We’ve learned that Allison has opted out of the season, meaning Cephus may be one injury away from starting for the Lions. I’ll be honest… Cephus was a top-10 wide receiver in this draft class and I was really curious where he’d land. Knowing Marvin Jones has dealt with injuries over the last few years and that Danny Amendola will be 35 years old in a few months, there’s a chance we see Cephus on the field sooner than expected. He’s a name to pay attention to should there be an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

TE
T.J. Hockenson: There’s an article I wrote this offseason that was titled, “Which Fantasy Players Should Have Scored the Most Fantasy Points.” In that article, I highlighted that every target/carry/pass attempt has an expected outcome in fantasy points. A target on your own 10-yard line isn’t worth as much as a target on the opponent’s 20-yard line, etc. Each of the tight ends who finished top-12 in opportunity finished top-13 at year’s end, so it’s clearly something to look for. Based on Hockenson’s pace over 16 games, he would’ve been the No. 12 tight end in opportunity. Now going into his second season, we should see his role grow. Hockenson was one of the least efficient players in all of football last year, and even going over the last 10 years, his 54.2 percent catch-rate ranked 331st among 357 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets. There’s only room for improvement, so if you’re looking for a potential late-round tight end, he has more opportunity than most realize.

Green Bay Packers

QB
Aaron Rodgers: How did we get here? Rodgers was the poster child for consistency in fantasy football. He may not have had the Lamar Jackson upside, but you knew he would finish as a top-five quarterback as long as he was healthy. Last year was the first time he finished worse than the No. 7 quarterback while playing at least 10 games. His QB9 finish was worse than it appears at first sight. Rodgers actually finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10-of-16 games. There were four games that essentially carried him through the season, and those games were against the Raiders, Giants, Chiefs, and Eagles. Three of those were among the worst in football. Fortunately, Rodgers has a semi-decent schedule in 2020, as he’ll play the Lions twice, Panthers, Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars defenses during the fantasy season. Was it the new offense he was learning? Was it the lack of weapons to throw to? Neither has changed, so it’s tough to say he’ll return to the Rodgers we all know and love as fantasy players, but his cost doesn’t reflect that it’s even a possibility, as he’s being drafted outside the top-10 quarterbacks. If you’re one of those fantasy owners who refuses to spend up at quarterback, taking a shot on Rodgers in the eighth or ninth round would make plenty of sense. He’s 36 years old and has seven top-two finishes under his belt.

RBs
Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillon: When there were rumors about the Packers drafting a running back, I scoffed at them thinking, “Why would they draft a running back with any equity considering the way Jones and Williams played last year?” The duo combined for 1,544 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground, and then another 727 yards and eight touchdowns through the air. Some are suggesting that Dillon will take the goal-line role, but from a logical standpoint, that doesn’t make sense. I did a study this offseason highlighting who the best running backs were inside the red zone, and Aaron Jones was No. 3 on that list, scoring 32.7 more fantasy points than the average running back would’ve with the same touches. But with Matt LaFleur, he hasn’t done a lot of things that make sense given the set of players he has available to him. Because of that, Jones is falling to the end of the second round/beginning of the third round. There is certainly risk to Jones but knowing he’s one of the most efficient running backs in all of football, the discount is enough to select him in that range. Worst case scenario is that he loses a few touches per game and he drops from high-end RB1 production down to low-end RB1 territory. Think about someone like Alvin Kamara, who continually does more with less. Jones may not be on the Saints offense, but he did just fine in this offense last year. The Packers running backs averaged 28.5 touches per game last year, so even if Jones gets 18 per game, that leaves 10.5 touches for the others. As for Williams and Dillon, it’s tough to say who Jones’ primary handcuff/competition will be. I’d say that Dillon will be used more around the goal-line, while Williams will be there to give Jones breathers. Neither of them would be a 18-touch back if Jones were to miss time, making me hesitant to trust either at the end of my roster.

WRs
Davante Adams: I’m convinced that because Adams missed part of the 2019 season, many don’t realize just how consistent he’s been over the last few years. He’s played 27 games in that span and has scored 16-plus PPR points in 23 of them. The Packers didn’t add a wide receiver in the draft, so it’s not likely his massive target-share is going away. Do you know how many receivers averaged over 10.0 targets per game last year alone? Three. Now how many has Adams averaged over the last two years combined? 11.0 targets per game. That’s ridiculous. He comes with an ultra-high floor, as well as the ceiling to be the WR1. If you wanted to take him over Michael Thomas, I wouldn’t fault you. They’re both in the same tier, except Thomas has had more talent put around him (Emmanuel Sanders) while Adams has actually lost players around him (Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham who accounted for 115 targets last year). He’s a first-round pick.

Allen Lazard: We had to wonder whether it’d be Lazard or Devin Funchess as the starting receiver opposite Davante Adams, but after finding out that Funchess opted out, it should be Lazard’s job. Despite only being a part of the offense in 10 games, Lazard racked up 52 targets last year, including 17 of them in the final two games that he turned into 114 yards and a touchdown. That pace of targets over a 16-game season would add up to 83.2, which is certainly enough to be relevant, and there’s obviously room for growth with the departure of Geronimo Allison. Aaron Rodgers has continually gone to bat for Lazard, and that’s something to latch onto, as Rodgers did the same thing for Davante Adams back when he struggled at the start of his career. Lazard isn’t someone you should rely on for WR3 production right out of the gate, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities knowing that Rodgers trusts him. If you can land him as your WR5/6, there aren’t many in that territory who offer the target upside Lazard does without injury in front of them.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: It seems that Valdes-Scantling got on the bad side of Aaron Rodgers early in his career, and then a move from the slot to the perimeter essentially decimated his fantasy potential. But did something happen this offseason that could get him back on track to the top-40 receiver he was being drafted as in 2019 fantasy drafts? Geronimo Allison was allowed to let walk in free agency, vacating the slot role once again. Valdes-Scantling seems like the natural replacement, as Davante Adams and Allen Lazard aren’t primary slot receivers. That’s great news considering Valdes-Scantling has averaged 1.02 more fantasy points per target in the slot than he has on the perimeter. That’s the second-highest gap in football over the last two years, so you can say he’s slot-dependent. If he can get back on Aaron Rodgers‘ good side, he’ll have some streamer-worthy weeks.

Equanimeous St. Brown: The Packers are apparently “looking forward” to getting St. Brown back in the lineup after an injury-plagued season in 2019. What exactly does that mean? I’m not sure, but it seems he’ll be in the mix now that Devin Funchess has opted out. Knowing the Packers wide receivers totaled just 306 targets last year, it’s hard to say that their No. 4 option should be drafted, especially when Davante Adams averages 11.0 targets per game over the last two years, but he’s a name to keep on waiver wire speed dial in case anything changes. Aaron Rodgers has supported multiple fantasy relevant receivers plenty of times.

TE
Jace Sternberger: He was a popular late-round pick earlier this offseason, but after he was placed on the COVID list and forced to miss out on training camp, he’s falling further down draft boards, and most of the time not being drafted at all. Packers tight ends have failed to eclipse 103 targets combined in six of the last seven years. It typically takes 80-plus targets for a tight end to finish in TE1 territory without tons of touchdowns, and though Rodgers has thrown plenty of those, his tight ends haven’t combined for more than nine touchdowns in each of those seven seasons. This would be Sternberger’s first trip into the starting lineup, so it’s tough to expect much from a young tight end, even though I did like him as a prospect last year. He’s someone that you’ll be able to use as a streamer from time-to-time, but he won’t be your every-week solution at tight end.