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ADP Values, Busts, & Sleepers for Every Division (2022 Fantasy Football)

Sep 2, 2022
Tee Higgins

The 2022 NFL season is less than a week away, and fantasy football players are drafting by the hour. The FantasyPros mock draft simulator is the best tool for any last-minute help.

Over the past month, I wrote an eight-part series, identifying two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers in every division. You can read all eight in-depth articles below.

However, this article will give you a quick recap of each player in that series using my favorite stats or notes. Good luck with your fantasy drafts this year.

ADP via FantasyPros

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

AFC East ADP Values

Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): ADP 69.6 | WR28

Despite playing only 49.3% of the snaps and a 46.8% route participation rate, Davis had a 10.9% target share and averaged two fantasy points per target last year. Furthermore, he had a 17.1% touchdown rate and accounted for 10.7% of the team’s total touchdowns.

Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): ADP 83.8 | WR34

Over the last five games of the year, Moore averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, scoring 20.5 or more three times. Furthermore, he had an 18.6% target share, a 20% target share in the red zone, and three top-12 weekly finishes last season.

AFC East Bust Candidates

Dawson Knox (TE – BUF): ADP 97.8 | TE10

In the seven games he found the end zone, Knox averaged 16 fantasy points per game and 3.21 fantasy points per target last season. However, he averaged only 6.5 fantasy points per game and 1.44 fantasy points per target in the eight games he failed to score a touchdown. His fantasy PPG average dropped by nearly 60% when he failed to score a touchdown.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): ADP 123.2 | TE12

Despite a lack of weapons in Miami, Gesicki was the TE8, averaging only 9.7 fantasy points per game last season. He had only two receiving touchdowns, ranking 34th among tight ends. Furthermore, Gesicki’s two receiving touchdowns were the fourth most on the Dolphins and accounted for only 6.1% of their offensive scores. With the additions of Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, how many touchdowns will Gesicki score this year?

AFC East Sleepers to Target

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): ADP 102.1 | RB35

Last season, Stevenson had the same number of weekly top-12 finishes as Damien Harris (two) despite seeing only 38.9% of the backfield workload. More importantly, he has impressed the coaching staff in training camp and reportedly will take on the James White pass-catching role. Furthermore, Stevenson averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in the two games without Harris last season.

Isaiah McKenzie (WR – BUF): ADP 187.1 | WR72

Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders combined for 184 targets last season. Davis will see a bunch of those targets, but McKenzie will earn a fair chunk too. Despite adding Jameson Crowder in free agency, McKenzie has been the talk of training camp and won the starting slot receiver role, replacing Beasley and his 112 targets.

AFC North ADP Values

Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): ADP 32.6 | WR12

The former Clemson star was a top-13 wide receiver on a fantasy PPG basis last season, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, he had a team-high 7.9 targets per game. Higgins also had a slightly higher target share than Ja’Marr Chase (23.9% to 23.7%) despite playing 7.1% fewer snaps.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): ADP 87.2 | WR37

Bateman started the year strong, seeing six or more targets in his first five career games. Despite not finding the end zone, he averaged 1.41 fantasy points per target in those contests. Bateman averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game and 1.59 fantasy points per target in the eight games with more than four targets as a rookie.

AFC North Bust Candidates

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT): ADP 114.6 | TE11

In the six games he scored a touchdown, Freiermuth averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game and 2.6 fantasy points per target last year. However, he averaged only 6.9 fantasy points per game and 1.46 fantasy points per target when he failed to score a touchdown. Over a 17-game pace, Freiermuth would have been the TE3 in the games he scored a touchdown, while he would have been the TE23 when he failed to find the end zone.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): ADP 132.8 | WR49

Last year, Boyd was the WR31, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, it was the fourth year in a row where his fantasy PPG average dropped by at least one fantasy point from the previous year. Additionally, he had only 94 targets last year, his lowest total since 2017.

AFC North Sleepers to Target

Chase Claypool (WR – PIT): ADP 110.8 | WR44

Claypool had an impressive rookie year in 2020. He was the WR19, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Claypool’s aDOT dropped from 13.3 as a rookie to 11.5 last season. He saw a massive dip in deep targets. Last year, 19.3% of his targets were deep targets, while that number was 29.5% as a rookie. His numbers should improve with the change at quarterback.

David Njoku (TE – CLE): ADP 163.8 | TE15

While Amari Cooper is the top pass catcher on the team, Njoku has a clear pathway to the No. 2 role. The Browns have several young pass catchers, including Donovan Peoples-Jones, Harrison Bryant, Anthony Schwartz, and David Bell. However, those four players have a combined 103 receptions in their NFL careers. With Austin Hooper gone and a massive new deal, Njoku is primed to break out.

AFC South ADP Values

Michael Pittman (WR – IND): ADP 35.2 | WR13

Last year, Pittman was the WR17, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. He had a route participation rate of 98.1%, one of the highest in the NFL. More importantly, Pittman was the focal point of the Indianapolis passing attack, seeing 17 red-zone targets, 42 third-down targets, and 16 deep targets. Most of all, the Colts did very little to threaten his 25.7% target share from last season.

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC): ADP 101.1 | WR41

Kirk averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game in the seven contests without DeAndre Hopkins, scoring over 16.4 fantasy points in two of those games last year. Jacksonville will be in negative game script a big chunk of the year, giving Kirk plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. While he is currently getting drafted as a WR4, a top-20 finish isn’t out of the question.

AFC South Bust Candidates

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): ADP 5.1 | RB4

Henry’s yards per rushing attempt average dropped from 5.4 in 2020 to 4.3 last season. It was his lowest yards per rushing attempt average since his second year in the NFL. Coming off of the first severe injury in his career, fantasy players should wonder if Henry can play all 17 games with his high workload.

Evan Engram (TE – JAC): ADP 186.8 | TE21

After scoring six touchdowns as a rookie, Engram has scored 11 total touchdowns over the past four years. Despite averaging 6.6 targets per game in his career, Engram has averaged only 10.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he has averaged only 1.52 fantasy points per target in his career while repeatedly struggling with drops.

AFC South Sleepers to Target

Robert Woods (WR – TEN): ADP 102.4 | WR42

It’s easy to forget Woods was the WR12 in the nine games he played in 2021. He had three top-12 weekly finishes and accounted for nearly 10% of the team’s total touchdowns scored for the season. More importantly, Woods is 100% after suffering a torn ACL last season and will be the No. 1 receiver for the Titans.

Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU): ADP 252.7 | TE31

Jordan is my favorite deep sleeper this year. He finished the week as a top-12 tight end in 50% of his games, including two top-six weekly finishes as a rookie. Jordan had a higher top-12 finish rate than Dallas Goedert (46.7%) and Kyle Pitts (43.8%). More importantly, despite seeing only 28 targets last year, 14.3% of them came in the red zone, resulting in three touchdowns.

AFC West ADP Values

Mike Williams (WR – LAC): ADP 48.2 | WR19

Last year, Williams had four top-12 weekly finishes, matching Keenan Allen. However, Williams accomplished that feat despite playing 7% fewer snaps and seeing a 4.3% smaller target share. He also averaged more fantasy points per route run (0.46 vs. 0.44) and more fantasy points per target (1.91 vs. 1.64) than Allen.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): ADP 60.6 | WR21

In 2019, Sutton was the WR19, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game and 1.8 fantasy points per target. He had an 8.3% touchdown rate that year. By comparison, Sutton has a 5.8% touchdown rate for the rest of his career. Now that he has Russell Wilson and not Teddy Bridgewater, Sutton has top-12 upside.

AFC West Bust Candidates

Darren Waller (TE – LV): ADP 45.4 | TE5

Over the past three years, Waller has only a 5.6% touchdown rate despite finishing third among tight ends with nine touchdowns in 2020. Hunter Renfrow is coming off of a career year. While he had a slight bump in targets, Renfrow averaged only 2.4 more fantasy points per game without Waller in the lineup. More importantly, Davante Adams is one of the best red-zone weapons in the NFL and will further limit Waller’s touchdown upside.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): ADP 64.1 | RB24

After a solid rookie season, Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production fell off a cliff last season. His fantasy points per game dropped by 12.6%, and his yards per touch dropped by 7.8%. Additionally, Edwards-Helaire has struggled with injuries in his career, missing 30.3% of the games. Rookie Isiah Pacheco has also earned first-team reps in training camp and more work in the passing game.

AFC West Sleepers to Target

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): ADP 78.1 | WR31

Smith-Schuster is not your typical sleeper candidate, as he has produced three top-20 finishes in his five-year career. However, he is criminally undervalued at his current ADP. In the other two years of his career, he was held back by injury or incompetent quarterback play. When Ben Roethlisberger was healthy, JuJu had a 10.3 aDOT.

Gerald Everett (TE – LAC): ADP 187.6 | TE22

Last year, Everett averaged a career-high 7.9 fantasy points per game. He scored more than 14 fantasy points in three of the six games with five or more targets. Furthermore, Everett averaged 10 fantasy points per game in the eight games with four or more targets. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the TE8 with that average.

CTAs

NFC East ADP Values

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): ADP 21.1 | RB12

The former No. 2 overall pick had a historic rookie season, averaging 22 touches and 24.1 fantasy points per game. However, health is the key for Barkley. Before suffering a torn ACL in 2020, he scored 14 or more fantasy points in 24-of-30 games.

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): ADP 61.1 | QB6

Many expect Hurts to have a Josh Allen-like third-year breakout after the Eagles added A.J. Brown this offseason. However, he has plenty of upside, even if his passing numbers don’t improve. Last year, Hurts and Allen were the only two quarterbacks to throw for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 750 yards.

NFC East Bust Candidates

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): ADP 64.2 | RB25

After averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game over his final six games last season, Gibson was close to a likely top-10 ranking in 2022. However, the Commanders re-signed J.D. McKissic and used a third-round pick on Brian Robinson. Gibson had a poor preseason, while Robinson was reportedly going to be the starter before getting shot. Even with Robinson out to start the season, Gibson is on my do not draft list.

Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG): ADP 173.2 | WR63

Since they signed Golladay to his massive contract, the Giants have used their 2021 first-round pick on Kadarius Toney. Then the new regime used a second-round pick in 2022 on Wan’Dale Robinson. Furthermore, Golladay has struggled with injuries over the past two years. His lack of effort in the preseason is also a massive red flag.

NFC East Sleepers to Target

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL): ADP 84.1 | RB31

Despite Ezekiel Elliott playing all 17 games and averaging 16.7 touches per contest, Pollard was the RB28 last season. He averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game despite averaging only 11.3 touches per contest. More importantly, there have been reports about the Cowboys playing Pollard in the slot, which will open up new ways for him to score fantasy points.

Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS): ADP 245.7 | WR87

The last time Samuel was healthy was in 2020 when he had a career-high 77 receptions on 97 targets for 851 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He also had 41 rushing attempts for 200 yards and two touchdowns that year. Samuel is worth a late-round pick as a high-upside dart-throw selection in deeper leagues if he can stay healthy.

NFC North ADP Values

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): ADP 7.8 | RB6

Despite unusual touchdown regression, Cook still had nine top-24 weekly finishes in 12 games last season (75%). He was also the RB9 on a PPG basis among running backs with at least nine games played. The touchdowns should bounce back with Kevin O’Connell on the sidelines.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI): ADP 69.8 | WR29

While he scored only one touchdown in the five games without Allen Robinson last season, Mooney still averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game. On a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR17 last season with that average. More importantly, Mooney could lead the league in targets this season, thanks to limited competition in the receiving corps.

NFC North Bust Candidates

T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET): ADP 68.1 | TE7

Last year, Hockenson was a popular breakout candidate given a lack of proven weapons in Detroit. He was the TE6 on a PPG basis, averaging 12.1 fantasy points per contest thanks to a 21% target share and a 23.7% red-zone target share. However, Hockenson won’t see a target share that high this year with Amon-Ra St. Brown heading into his second season and D’Andre Swift healthy.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): ADP 83.6 | QB11

Rodgers had a 7% touchdown rate last year, tossing a touchdown once every 14.4 pass attempts. However, 11 of his touchdown passes went to Adams, accounting for 29.7% of his total. Removing Adams’ 11 touchdowns from Rodgers’ total, he would have slipped from the QB5 to the QB13 last season.

NFC North Sleepers to Target

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): ADP 127.6 | TE13

Last year, Kmet was very productive in Justin Fields‘ final four starts. While Fields left the Week 11 matchup early with an injury, Kmet averaged 7.3 targets and 10.8 fantasy points per game in the other three games. His targets per game were up 25.4% from his season average, while his fantasy points per game were up 34.3% from his season average. More importantly, his 10.8 fantasy PPG average would have made him the TE5 over a 17-game pace, despite not scoring a touchdown.

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): ADP 180.4 | WR64

The duo of Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling combined for 224 targets and a 37.8% target share last year. Instead of adding a top-tier free agent, the Packers used a trio of draft picks at wide receiver. Of the three, Doubs has been the star of training camp, making several impressive plays during the preseason. He could earn a starting role really early in the year.

NFC South ADP Values

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB): ADP 22.2 | RB14

In 2021, Fournette was the RB6, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game despite missing three games because of injury. Fournette had 11 top-24 weekly finishes while finishing outside the top 36 running backs only once. More importantly, he had a 67% backfield share rate and a 14% target share despite only a 52.9% route participation rate.

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): ADP 43.4 | WR17

Moore is coming off arguably the best year of his career with 93 receptions on 163 targets and 1,157 yards, ending the year as the WR18. Furthermore, he had a 95.5% route participation rate and a 28.4% target share, both ranking among the league leaders. More importantly, Moore had a 30.5% dominator rating, the 12th highest among wide receivers last season.

NFC South Bust Candidates

Mike Evans (WR – TB): ADP 27.1 | WR9

In the 14 games Chris Godwin played, Evans averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. Evans then averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game in the two games Godwin missed with a torn ACL. He was also the WR4 during the playoffs on a PPG basis, averaging 26.3 fantasy points per contest. However, the Buccaneers have too many mouths to feed for Evans to finish top 10 in 2022.

Jarvis Landry (WR – NO): ADP 152.8 | WR55

Landry has finished outside the top 30 wide receivers in back-to-back seasons, including a career-worst WR54 finish last year. He has never had a double-digit touchdown season in his career and he has only one year with more than six touchdowns. How many targets will Landry see with Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas?

NFC South Sleepers to Target

Jameis Winston (QB – NO): ADP 174.2 | QB20

Despite a lack of weapons, Winston had 14 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions in seven games last year before tearing his ACL. He also scored over 25 fantasy points in two of those contests. Furthermore, Winston was the QB14 on a PPG basis throwing to Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty. He has top-10 ability, thanks to the new additions in New Orleans.

Desmond Ridder (QB – ATL): ADP 303.1 | QB43

Typically, rookie quarterbacks fail to turn into productive fantasy players. However, several rookie quarterbacks have finished in the top 10 over the past few years. Even though Marcus Mariota was named the starter to begin the year, it’s only a matter of time before Desmond Ridder takes the job. If he can earn the starting role early enough in the season, Ridder could sneak into the top 15 as a rookie.

NFC West ADP Values

Cam Akers (RB – LAR): ADP 42.4 | RB18

Over the final five games of the 2020 season, Akers averaged 14 fantasy points per game. He scored 16 or more fantasy points twice despite playing under 70% of the snaps in all but one contest. Akers then averaged 23 rushing attempts for 110.5 yards, one touchdown, and 22.1 fantasy points per game while averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt during the two playoff games that year.

Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): ADP 87.8 | TE9

Once he joined the Cardinals, Ertz was the TE4 the rest of the year, averaging 12 fantasy points per game. His 81 targets in 11 games with the Cardinals finished third on the team. Furthermore, Ertz averaged nine targets and 13.8 fantasy points per game in the seven games DeAndre Hopkins missed last season.

NFC West Bust Candidates

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): ADP 16.8 | WR6

After scoring 36.5 fantasy points on the ground in his first two years in the NFL combined, Samuel scored 84.5 fantasy points on the ground last season. 90.3% of those fantasy points came over his final eight games. During those final eight games, Samuel averaged only five targets per game. Unlike the first half of the season, George Kittle was healthy, and Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t in the doghouse. With those two ready to contribute, Deebo’s targets per game dropped by 50.6%.

Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA): ADP 84.8 | RB33

Since he stepped foot in the NFL, Rashaad Penny has dealt with injuries. Over the first three years of his career, Penny played in only 56.3% of his possible games. He also didn’t play in seven of the first 11 games last year and has struggled with injuries during the offseason. On top of that, Penny had under 90 rushing attempts in each of the first three years of his career. By comparison, he had 92 rushing attempts in his famous five-game stretch last season.

NFC West Sleepers to Target

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF): ADP 95.4 | WR39

Last year was a season of two halves for Aiyuk. He started the year in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, averaging only 2.7 targets and 4.3 fantasy points per game over the first six games. However, he averaged 6.2 targets and 13.2 fantasy points per game over the final 11 games, making him the WR16 during that span.

Trey Lance (QB – SF): ADP 103.1 | QB13

Lance started two games last season for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He also played the entire second half of the Week 4 matchup after Garoppolo suffered an injury right before halftime. In those 2.5 games, Lance scored 54 fantasy points. Adjusting for playing only 10 quarters of football instead of 12, Lance averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in a situation where he was the starter. He would have been the QB4 over a 17-game pace with that average last year.


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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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