Fantasy Football Trade Values: Week 7

I used to spend a lot more time on the intros to my articles. Back when I first started writing about fantasy sports, I’d spend as much time thinking about a sharp or funny opening as I would analyzing the reasons behind Giancarlo Stanton’s struggles to hit the inside fastball in the early part of the 2016 season (Note: he turned it around). It just felt natural to write some sort of parable about my personal life or just some random silly thoughts in general to ease us all into the analysis.

But over the last year, I’ve been less able to do that. Most of it is simply a lack of time these days, but some of it is that the articles I’m currently writing don’t lend themselves to easy introductions. I mean, trade values? I could talk about the time I chased my college calculus teacher through the gym to argue for a higher grade, but I don’t think that really works, do you?

There’s a story I tell people who occasionally tease me about being a fantasy sports analyst. Fantasy sports are awesome, and they’re a wonderful distraction from our day-to-day lives. But, and I say this without hyperbole, fantasy football saved me once. I wrote about it once before, and no, it doesn’t fit in well with a trade values article. But, frankly, I haven’t written a long-winded opening in awhile, so you guys are stuck with it. Or, you know, just scroll down to the trade values part of it. Our relationship will be irrevocably broken, so, consider that!

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Several years ago in December, my family and I learned that my father didn’t have much longer to live. It was a pretty big shock to both my and my family’s systems. My father was a truly wonderful guy – smart, funny, strong. So, we all had to figure out how to cope. Oh right, and I was also expecting my first child any minute. Stressful times, they were.

I remember also worrying about how to tell my friends. If you’ve read my articles or participated in one of my AMAs on Reddit, you know I joke around quite a bit, so it was going to be a tough conversation. One night, I was sitting in my car, and I called my buddy Fitz. I told him what was happening, and he was completely shocked and didn’t know what to say.

We sat on the phone for a few minutes, just kind of not saying much. And finally, I said, “Man, my fantasy team is gonna be hard to beat in the playoffs, though, right?” There was silence for a few seconds, and then we both burst out laughing.

For the next couple of weeks, Fitz and I had a lot of conversations about fantasy football. Often times, we’d remark how absurd it was that we were talking about fantasy given my situation. But then we’d just laugh at the absurdity of it.

I remember going to the funeral parlor with my mother after my father died, making the arrangements, and then coming home and watching Michael Vick score about 30 points in the last quarter of a game against the Giants to win me my semifinal match (against Fitz, no less). I remember calling Fitz while grocery shopping for my mom, wondering if I should start Joe Webb as a wide receiver, even though he was playing QB for the Vikings (thanks to a glitch in Yahoo!’s position eligibility).

Fantasy football is how I was able to make it through my dad passing away. It’s how I made it through the first few weeks after my daughter was born. And when our family dog died suddenly right at the start of this year’s football season, fantasy sports (and Fitz) provided the distraction.

It’s a silly game we play. But that doesn’t take away how important it can become in many of our lives or how a late Marcus Mariota touchdown pass to Taywan Taylor that wins you a matchup can lead to you screaming so loud that it wakes up your kids and puts your marriage in jeopardy (Note: picked up some flowers on the way home today – marriage saved). So don’t be embarrassed by the significance that fantasy sports has in your life. But trust me, have a local florist you can trust or a box of chocolates hidden away just in case!

And with that, let’s jump into this week’s trade values. Enjoy!

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Quarterbacks

 
So, let’s talk about the elephant in the room which, in addition to the ridiculously oversized stuffed animal in my daughter’s closet, is also the Aaron Rodgers injury. Rodgers will likely miss the rest of the season with a broken collarbone, which is just bad for football, man. But as for trade values, it has the minimal effect of moving many quarterbacks up a tick in value, mainly because there is simply one fewer elite option, making the remaining ones worth slightly more.

Other than that, the main movers are because of injuries. Marcus Mariota was clearly limited on Monday, as he rarely left the pocket and refused to scramble even when he had a lane. But he suffered no setbacks and word is that he should be fully recovered after his bye week in Week 8. So, he returns closer to pre-injury value. As for Jameis Winston, it sounds like he avoided major injury, but it’s still unclear as to whether he will start this week. Winston hasn’t yet shown himself to be special for fantasy purposes this year, so it’s hard to value him as anything more than a borderline QB1 at this stage.

Running Backs

 
My goodness. Well, I think we can officially say that there is no way to appropriately measure Ezekiel Elliott‘s value. All we know is that he will now play this week and it seems, barring some unforeseen rescheduling of a court date, next week, too. After that, it’s anybody’s guess. If I was trading for him today, I’d personally value him as a mid-range RB2. There are question marks surrounding just about everyone in that range, and it seems just as likely that Elliott will give you production for the rest of the season as it is that he will give you only another game or two. But, I think we can all agree, if you trade for Elliott, you have nerves of steel. So, pat yourself on the back.

As for that Adrian Peterson trade, well, everyone came out a winner. Both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (to a lesser extent) rise in value, as it’s clear they’ll both benefit from not having to cede uninspiring touches to Peterson. As for ol’ AP himself, he had quite the debut for Arizona. He spikes in value, but you’ve surely seen his best effort of the season. Buy him as a low-end RB2 going forward, however.

DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry move ever so closer in value, as the situation is moving dramatically toward a true time-share. Yes, that obviously takes away from Murray’s value, but I wouldn’t get all that worried yet. Murray now has four catches in each of his last two games, and he should be able to make up much of the value from his lost carries through the air. As for Henry, he’s quickly reached borderline RB2 status, and should have some staying power.

Mike Gillislee fumbled. That was a bad choice. Gillislee saw carries after that fumble, but ceded significant work to Dion Lewis, who has taken on a bigger role in recent weeks. I can’t say for certain which running back I’d rather have more going forward, but neither one makes a particularly exciting option at this stage.

Wide Receivers

 
Every Green Bay wide receiver takes an unfortunate dip in value with the downgrade from Rodgers to Brett Hundley (Note: I actually think Hundley will be quite good for fantasy, but we can discuss that another time). Randall Cobb was due for a value correction anyway, and so takes a more significant drop, but Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams have to move down somewhat as well.

It’s impossible to deny Michael Crabtree‘s value as one of the top wide receivers in all of fantasy football at this point. Yes, I do believe that Amari Cooper has been Space Jam’d, and there are aliens out there that have come to our planet and stolen his football ability to win an important cartoon football game. But, be that as it may, Crabtree flourished last year with Derek Carr, and he’s even more impressive this year. He deserves to be valued as such.

A few former afterthoughts move into the fringe WR3 range. John Brown looks closer and closer to full strength, as he played roughly 75 percent of the snaps last week and caught his second touchdown in as many games. Nelson Agholor‘s performance has always seemed fluky to me, but he’s averaging 53.5 yards per game and has the second-most receiving yards in the NFL out of the slot (behind only Golden Tate). And Marvin Jones should become even more relevant with Tate’s injury. Jones had already begun seeing an uptick in targets, and that trend should continue going forward.

Tight Ends

 
Zach Ertz nudges ahead of Travis Kelce in value because, well, Zach Ertz is awesome. He’s currently on pace for a 91-catch, 1,080-yard, 11-touchdown season. If you took the best numbers from each of his previous four seasons, you’d have a 78-catch, 853-yard, four-touchdown season. A true superstar at the position.

Evan Engram, Cameron Brate, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins all move into the reliable TE1 category, no matter how much the NFL may want to prevent Seferian-Jenkins from scoring touchdowns. All three of these guys see consistent targets and are threats to score touchdowns in every game.

Until next week, friends!

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.