Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Total: 48.0
Line: NE by 7.0
QBs
Ryan Tannehill: Considering how poorly constructed his offensive line is, Tannehill has played extremely well through three games. He’s completed 73 percent of his passes, which ranks fifth among quarterbacks with at least 25 pass attempts. He now heads into a matchup with the Patriots, who have allowed a 69.1 percent completion-rate to Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford the last two weeks, while also allowing six passing scores. It’s clear they’ve been having struggles, but can they turn it around against the 3-0 Dolphins? They were missing multiple starters on defense last week against the Lions, but they’ve had issues at full health. Tannehill typically played decent against the Patriots, but it was also because they struggled to defend Jarvis Landry, who is no longer on the team. Tannehill has still yet to top 28 pass attempts, though I believe that ends in Week 4 where he can be considered a middling QB2 who presents a fantasy floor with his legs (both Bortles and Deshaun Watson rushed for 35-plus yards against the Patriots).
Tom Brady: Is this the beginning of the end? While that story has been played out, you have to wonder if the Patriots simply don’t have the protection to allow Brady to dissect a defense. Through three weeks, Brady is the second-fastest quarterback to scramble (only behind Sam Bradford), meaning he’s not able to set-up the way he would like. The Dolphins pass-rush lost a key member last week when William Hayes went down with a torn ACL while trying to avoid a flag on a sack. Brady has struggled on the road against divisional opponents, including Miami. But not at home. In the home meeting against them last year, he totaled 227 yards and four touchdowns on just 28 attempts. Brady has proven everyone wrong before, and while the time will come for him to retire very soon, I’m starting him as a QB1 in a plus-matchup this week. Before we hear that the Dolphins defense is elite (they’ve played well, not taking that away), you must remember they’ve played against Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr, three of the bottom-10 performing quarterbacks in the league.
RBs
Kenyan Drake: It’s hard to disagree with the logic considering the Dolphins won last week, but why is Drake getting just five carries in any game? The gamescripts have given Frank Gore more carries than expected, but with the Dolphins as seven-point underdogs in this game, Drake should get plenty of work. The Patriots are struggling to defend the run, as they’ve now allowed 358 rushing yards on 74 attempts (4.84 yards per carry) against the Texans, Jaguars (without Leonard Fournette), and Lions. While Drake and the Dolphins wouldn’t be considered a potent rushing attack, it’s clear that non-potent teams can do some damage on the ground, as they’ve allowed four different running backs to finish as top-30 options. This could be one of the weeks where Drake lives up to his RB2 draft value. In fact, it’s possible that he sneaks into RB1 territory, though you can’t trust him as such with the limited usage.
Sony Michel and James White: We’ve now had two weeks of the Patriots with Michel in the lineup and here are the snap counts: White 59, Michel 36, Rex Burkhead 21. Those are the two weeks combined, so it’s clear that Burkhead was the one who was suffering. If you missed it, Burkhead has been placed on injured reserve, making this a two-headed monster. The thing to consider is whether or not they change based on the results, which have been two losses. The one to the Jaguars was somewhat predictable, but losing to the Lions on primetime hurt. You have to wonder if they scale back Michel’s reps due to the lack of points from the offense, as White may turn out to play the Dion Lewis role. There’s definitely a level of risk to all Patriots running backs behind this offensive line, though the Dolphins lost one of their better run-defenders last week in William Hayes. Their linebackers will need to step-up, but they’ve allowed two 100-yard games (Titans, Raiders) with Hayes in the lineup. Michel should be looked at as a RB2/3 who’s been wildly inefficient so far, though he looked to be playing like someone who didn’t want to lose his job, rather than someone looking to win a job. Does the Burkhead injury help? Time will tell. White is clearly needed in the passing-game with the lack of blocking, as he’s up to 20 targets through three games. White should be involved more on the ground, but that’s icing on the cake as the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to rack up five or more receptions in each of the first three games, making White an RB2 in PPR formats, while remaining on the RB3 radar in standard.
WRs
Kenny Stills: He came through on minimal targets once again in Week 3, as he turned his five targets into 3/61/1. You don’t want to continually rely on these big-play touchdowns, but Stills has been doing it since coming to the Dolphins, as he now has 18 touchdowns in his last 35 games with them. The Patriots are likely to bracket him with Jason McCourty, who has been their best cornerback through three weeks. He’s allowed just 52 yards on 12 targets in his coverage, so he’s not to blame for their defensive struggles. This makes Stills a risky WR4 who is hard to trust based on his limited opportunities in the offense.
Devante Parker: He returned to the lineup last week and played 33-of-44 snaps, while seeing three targets, catching two of them for 40 yards. He was second in snaps to only Stills, so Parker didn’t lose his spot in the starting lineup. The Patriots are very likely to stick Stephon Gilmore on him in coverage, as he’s typically on the bigger, more physical receiver in man-coverage. This may seem like a bad thing, but Gilmore hasn’t been very good through the first three games, allowing three touchdowns on 19 targets in coverage, including two last week to the Lions receivers. The gamescript should allow for more pass attempts this week and Parker may have the best matchup on the field. He’s not a must-start by any means (has proven nothing yet), but I’d consider him an upside WR4/5 for this matchup where it wouldn’t shock me to see him leave this game with a touchdown. Update: Parker is now apparently dealing with a quad injury and is questionable for this game, so you must pay attention to the Sunday morning inactives.
Danny Amendola/Jakeem Grant: It felt necessary to list Grant here considering he leads the team in targets, but you should also know that he played just nine snaps last week with Parker back in the lineup. Amendola is still the slot receiver and he knows the Patriots defense very well, and he’s going to match-up with either Eric Rowe (missed Week 3) or Jonathan Jones. Through three games, that duo has combined to allow 17/260/3 on 26 targets in coverage. This is a game I’d feel confident saying Amendola should see five-plus targets, making him a high-floor, though low-upside WR4/5 against his former team.
Josh Gordon: It seems likely that Gordon gets onto the field for this game, as he was close last week. The Patriots signed him for a reason, as they desperately need playmakers outside of Rob Gronkowski. Gordon has the ability to win matchups no matter who the cornerback is, though it may be tough for him to grasp the offense in order to get more than a few targets in his first game with the team. Despite their defense not allowing any more than 20 points, the Dolphins have allowed three wide receivers to rack up at least 84 yards over the last two weeks. Xavien Howard is their top cornerback who may not shadow considering the lack of true No. 1, but I’d expect Gordon to see a mixture of him and Bobby McCain. The duo has allowed plenty of yardage, but no touchdowns in coverage just yet. Gordon will be a risky WR4 who comes with plenty of upside in his first game with the Patriots.
Chris Hogan: It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Hogan, who had all the opportunity in the world with Julian Edelman out, but he’s tallied just 84 yards through three games, though his two touchdowns against the Jaguars are keeping his fantasy totals afloat. It’s a bad combination against the Dolphins who have allowed a lot of yardage, but just one touchdown to wide receivers through three games. The competition hasn’t been great, but they did allow Jordy Nelson to go off for 173 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. If Gordon plays, he should be able to stretch the field a bit, which should in-turn open things up for Hogan, who clearly isn’t suited to be the No. 1 option in a passing game. He’s still a WR3 who I’d love to throw in a few tournament lineups if Gordon is active, because Gordon will be the one everyone wants to play.
Phillip Dorsett: He’s under-the-radar, but he’s also the one who has more targets, receptions, and yardage than Hogan. The five targets he received in Week 3 amounted to absolutely nothing, which is never a good sign, though. Adding Gordon to the offense is going to limit Dorsett’s role, as he’s essentially been the deep threat, while Hogan has been asked to play more of an underneath role. Gordon is a much better field stretcher who can do more things than Dorsett, so you’re likely to see his snaps/production start to diminish. If Gordon is inactive, Dorsett is a WR5 with more upside than most in his range. If Gordon plays, Dorsett is likely going to find himself back on the waiver wire after this game.
TEs
Mike Gesicki: We were wondering how long it would take Gesicki pass A.J. Derby on the depth chart, and that answer was Week 3, as he doubled-up the snaps (28-14) and was targeted three times compared to just one for Derby. This is big because they’re going to be playing a Patriots defense who struggles to defend pass-catching tight ends. Some will look at their season-long stats and think they’re good, but when you look at the competition, you’ll understand why. Ryan Griffin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he scored), and Luke Willson might be the most un-impressing list of tight ends faced on the young season. The Patriots did allow eight TE1 performances to tight ends last year, so they aren’t someone you should shy away from. Knowing that the gamescript calls for more pass attempts, Gesicki might just score his first NFL touchdown and see a career-high in targets. He’s on the TE2 streaming radar.
Rob Gronkowski: It was almost comical to see a team use two resources all game to cover a tight end, but it worked. Matt Patricia has said they’ll attempt to take away the opponent’s top threat each week and they basically said Gronkowski is not going to beat us. Not everyone knows how to do that, and the Dolphins aren’t one of them if we look at their matchup last year. Gronkowski totaled five catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns in that game and knowing they’ll be without William Hayes, Gronkowski may not be held in to block very much in this game. If Brady gets back on track, Gronk gets back on track. He’s the TE1 this week who can score multiple touchdowns, especially if safety Reshad Jones is forced to miss another game for the Dolphins. You aren’t ever going to sit Gronkowski.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 43.5
Line: DAL by 3.0
QBs
Matthew Stafford: After everyone freaked out (we didn’t) over the Week 1 performance, are we all good with Stafford moving forward? He’s never had three legitimate wide receivers at once before, but you can make the argument that all three of these guys are Pro Bowl-caliber. The Cowboys secondary has been better than most expected, as they’ve allowed just 210.7 passing yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game to the combination of Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson. The fact that the Lions run-game got going last week is massive for Stafford’s potential going forward, though it may hurt him this week because the run-game should do exceptionally well now that linebacker Sean Lee has been ruled out for a few weeks. The Cowboys cornerbacks should have issues defending the Lions trio, but I do believe Stafford’s attempts come down a bit this week making him a low-end QB1 rather than the must-play QB1 he was the last two weeks.
Dak Prescott: It’s been a nightmare start to the season for Prescott, as he’s yet to throw for more than 170 yards and he’s got just two touchdowns and as many interceptions through three games. His receivers are still in flux and he doesn’t have a go-to target he can throw to when in trouble. The Lions secondary has vowed to take away the No. 1 option for their opponent, but the Cowboys don’t have that. Combining Prescott’s lack of yardage with the Lions defense that’s yet to allow more than 206 yards through the air isn’t a great combination. Unless Prescott rushes for a touchdown it’s hard seeing him finish inside the top-18 quarterbacks this week, making him unstreamable. He’s just a low-end QB2 who is missing Dez Bryant and Jason Witten more than most thought.
RBs
Kerryon Johnson and Theo Riddick: Can we finally see Johnson unleashed? He looked phenomenal in Week 3, though the Patriots defense was missing a few starters and it showed. Still, Patricia gave LeGarrette Blount the same amount of carries despite looking like the older, bigger, slower back on every single carry. The Cowboys will be without star linebacker Sean Lee and will be forced to go to rookie Leighton Vander Esch who failed to make his way into the starting lineup despite being selected in the first-round. With Lee out of the lineup last year, the Cowboys allowed 4.88 yards per carry, which is massive compared to the 3.52 yards per carry with him in the lineup. It’s likely why they drafted Vander Esch, though he’s an unproven rookie making his first start. After last week, Johnson should see minimum 12-15 touches every week, making him a low-end RB2 who is still part of a timeshare, though he’s the most talented. Riddick will play a bigger part in shootouts, which this game doesn’t figure to be, making him just an RB5.
Ezekiel Elliott: He didn’t score last week, but Elliott had a phenomenal game, running for 127 yards on just 16 carries and adding in another 11 yards with his hands. They must use him more in the passing game, or teams will continually flood the box with eight or more defenders. The Lions may have slowed the Patriots run-game last week, but that offensive line pales in comparison to Dallas’ front-five. Prior to slowing the Patriots, they allowed 363 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Jets and 49ers backfields. Mmhmmm. Elliott should eat in this game on his way to an elite RB1 performance and someone you want in your DFS lineups. There’s nothing else to say here.
WRs
Marvin Jones: He was finally able to connect with Stafford for a long touchdown, as the two had just been a few inches off multiple touchdowns. His touchdowns the last two weeks have pushed him up the fantasy boards, but make no mistake about it, Golladay is a huge threat to his future success. Jones saw just six targets in Week 3, though there weren’t as many pass attempts as usual. Jones will continue to be somewhat of a touchdown-dependent option in the matchup with the Cowboys in Week 4. After playing a phenomenal game against the Giants wide receivers in Week 2, they allowed both Tyler Lockett and Jaron Brown to score in Week 3. Their success comes from keeping everything “in front of them,” which is not where Jones makes his money. He’s going to see Byron Jones about 60 percent of the time and he’s been the best cornerback on the Cowboys roster through three games. The shifting targets and mediocre matchup this week make him more of a WR3 than the WR2 you probably drafted him as.
Kenny Golladay: We have to live-and-learn throughout the football season, and Golladay was a swing-and-miss on my part. He’s playing the alpha role in this offense and now has 256 yards and two touchdowns through three games, which also includes 28 targets, five more than his teammate Jones. The best part is that Golladay has done absolutely nothing to get any less of a role, as he’s been the most efficient wide receiver on the team. The Cowboys have Chidobe Awuzie at left cornerback, which is where Golladay lines up about 60 percent of the time. While there’s been some promising traits of Awuzie’s, he’s also allowed 14-of-16 passes to come his way be completed for 186 yards and a touchdown. Again, the Cowboys want him to play a role where he keeps the play in front of him, and it’s why he’s allowed just 28 yards after the catch the last two weeks (on 10 catches). Golladay isn’t a YAC monster or anything, but he should be able to continue producing as a high-end WR3 in this matchup.
Golden Tate: Despite being the “No. 3 receiver” on the team, Tate leads them in targets through three weeks, averaging a massive 12.0 targets per game. It’s important to note that he’s had phenomenal matchups the first three weeks of the season, which may have played into that just a bit. No wide receiver has totaled more than four catches against the Cowboys through three weeks, which makes Tate a lot riskier than he’s been. He’ll see Anthony Brown in the slot and he’s been much better there than he was on the perimeter over the last two years. Through three games, he’s allowed just 29 yards on seven targets in his coverage. Tate is in the WR3 conversation rather than the WR2 one we’ve had him in the last three weeks.
Cole Beasley: When 16 targets leads the team through three weeks, you know things aren’t great. Beasley not only leads them in targets, but in receptions and yards, too. He wouldn’t brag about it though, seeing as his targets have netted exactly 13.2 standard fantasy points, or 4.4 per week. The Lions have their biggest weakness at slot cornerback with Jamal Agnew, a fifth-round cornerback from 2017 who has played just 131 snaps in the NFL. He’s playing over last year’s second-round pick Teez Tabor, though it’s not because Agnew is special, but because Tabor was playing poorly. There’s nowhere near a big enough sample size to judge Agnew, but it’s hard to say that you want to play Beasley considering how little reward you get for the risk of putting him in a lineup.
Allen Hurns/Deonte Thompson: It’s Hurns who is technically the Cowboys No. 1 wide receiver, as he’s playing more snaps than Thompson, but can you call him a No. 1 when he’s seen just nine targets through three games? He’s not gaining any separation and Prescott has been unwilling to take shots down the field. Thompson has seen 12 targets, though that’s not like it’s something you need to take a chance on, especially when you know that he’s played just 79 snaps through three games. The Lions are likely to just play sides with Darius Slay rather than use him to shadow one of these guys, so it’s not as if one has it better than the other, though Hurns would see the most of Slay. Because of that, this likely isn’t the break out of the slump game for him. Thompson is just a guy who’s a part-time player, so feel free to just sit back and wait until they eventually give Michael Gallup more snaps.
Tavon Austin: Remember when the Cowboys said they wanted to give Austin two dozen touches per week? Yeah, that was fun. He now has eight touches through three games, though he has made them count, totaling 115 yards and two touchdowns. They’d be better off getting him touches than targeting their wide receivers, that’s for sure. It’s hard to trust a player who is getting so little of touches, but if they realize he’s providing a spark while others aren’t, maybe they utilize him a bit more in the dome where his speed is on full-blast. He’s just a dart-throw, but one who might just pay off for those who are desperate.
TEs
Luke Willson: After signing Willson in free agency, everyone assumed that he’d be the go-to tight end, a role that Eric Ebron (who they CUT) saw 86 targets in last year. Well, as it turns out, they liked Ebron more than they let on because Willson has just five targets through three weeks (don’t forget Stafford has thrown the ball a massive 135 times). In fact, there are four Lions tight ends who have played at least 20 snaps. Willson is the only one with more than two targets, but it’s clearly a Rams-type situation where the tight ends are an afterthought. The Cowboys aren’t a team where you really need to target with tight ends, so just sit back and wait until they give you a reason to take notice.
Geoff Swaim: The battle of timeshare tight ends, that’s what this game should be titled. I’m being unfair to Swaim though, because he’s played more than triple the snaps of backup Blake Jarwin, including a 55-12 snap advantage in Week 3. After not seeing a single target against the Giants, Swaim saw a career-high seven targets against the Seahawks and turned them into five catches for 47 yards. It was respectable considering how bad the passing yardage output has been for Prescott. The Lions utilized two players to defend Gronkowski last week, something that won’t happen with Swaim. He’s starting to move onto the radar, but it’s difficult to trust with such a small sample size. The Lions did allow eight touchdowns to tight ends last year, but they’re under a new coaching staff. Prior to holding Gronkowski to just 51 yards, they limited George Kittle to just two catches and 22 yards. We’ll pay attention to Swaim going forward, but don’t trust him just yet.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 51.0
Line: ATL by 5.5
QBs
Andy Dalton: It’d been a memorable start to the season for Dalton as he threw for six touchdowns over the first two weeks, but he came back down to earth against the Panthers, throwing for four interceptions. He still posted respectable fantasy numbers, though that’s because he threw the ball 46 times while playing from behind. This week he’ll play another NFC South opponent, though this one is at far less than 100 percent healthy. In fact, the Falcons are a defense to target in fantasy matchups. Ever since they saw Keanu Neal and Deion Jones go down with season-ending injuries, they’ve allowed 731 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns in just two games to the combination of Cam Newton and Drew Brees. They then lost other starting safety Ricardo Allen for the year in Week 3, so this defense is officially off the rails. Provided A.J. Green is okay and able to play, Dalton is on the QB1 streaming radar.
Matt Ryan: With the way the Falcons defense is falling apart, we’re going to get much more usable performances out of Ryan in 2018. Since starting out the season slow on that Thursday night game against the Eagles, Ryan has completed 49-of-63 passes (77.8 percent) for 646 yards and seven touchdowns, while throwing just one interception. He also ran for two touchdowns, though that’s not going to happen, like ever again. The Bengals defense has one more game to go without linebacker Vontaze Burfict, but they may get Preston Brown back this week. Whatever the case, their defense has been tagged for 300-plus yards in two-of-three games and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in all three games. A lot of it has had to do with high pass attempts, as both Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco surpassed 52 pass attempts against them. It’s part of the allure, though, as the Bengals opponents average a league-high 74.7 plays per game. That’s ridiculous. Ryan is back on the map as a QB1 in this game and someone who shouldn’t slow down with the Bengals shorthanded.
RBs
Giovani Bernard: After hearing that the Bengals signed Thomas Rawls and were planning to use rookie Mark Walton in the passing-game, Bernard seemed like he’d be in a light timeshare in Week 3, but that never happened. In fact, he played 57-of-65 snaps, while Walton played just seven of them. If Mixon is out this week, it’s going to be the Bernard show once again. It’s not only the pass defense that has suffered from the injuries, as they allowed just 3.92 yards per carry in the opener but have allowed the Panthers and Saints to trample them for 188 yards on just 35 carries (5.37 yards per carry), as well as allowing the running backs to catch 32 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown. No, that’s not a typo. Keep in mind that there was a team last year (Seahawks) who allowed just 465 receiving yards to running backs ALL SEASON. Bernard should be played as a high-end RB2 now that we know Joe Mixon is out.
Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman: It seems like Freeman is still a little ways away from returning, though head coach Dan Quinn didn’t rule out a return here in Week 4. Even if he returns, I’d expect him to play behind Coleman to knock the rust off. Coleman struggled to get anything going against the Saints, totaling just 47 yards on 17 touches, though he did catch a touchdown. It’ll be much easier sledding against the Bengals who just allowed Christian McCaffrey to play the game of his life behind that weak offensive line, as he racked up 28 carries and 184 yards on the ground. It did help that Burfict and Jones were out, but Burfict will miss this game and there’s no guarantee that Jones or defensive tackles Ryan Glasgow and Andrew Billings plays this week. Knowing how weak the competition was for carries in Weeks 1 and 2, you should expect Coleman to have a bounce-back game in Week 4. He should be played as a borderline RB1 if Freeman is ruled out again, but would still be a preferred RB2 even if Freeman plays in a limited fashion. We’ll update as more news is released. Update: Freeman has been ruled out for Week 4, making Coleman a borderline RB1.
WRs
A.J. Green: If you had watched last week’s game, it may have been early-on where Green actually got injured, though the second awkward fall is what did him in. When diving for a ball in the red zone, his knee got caught in the grass and it caused his hips to pop-up while his head went down. The Bengals are saying he’s fine, though we have to pay attention to his practice participation because Green isn’t someone who has played at less-than-100-percent throughout his career. The Falcons cornerbacks are solid, though the loss of the two safeties has put even more stress on them. Nobody would shadow Green, and he’s been moving all over the formation, so he’d see a mixture of all three cornerbacks (Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford, Brian Poole). The combination allowed Devin Funchess 7/77/0 two weeks ago and then Michael Thomas 10/129/0 last week, so they aren’t shutting down the No. 1 threats, which Green clearly is. Provided he practices and is a full-go, Green should be locked into lineups as a low-end WR1 this week.
Tyler Boyd: If someone has benefited from Ross stretching the field, it’s Boyd who has become Dalton’s safety blanket when under pressure. While Ross deals with confidence issues, Boyd has now racked up 12 catches for 223 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. He’s averaging seven targets per game and that’s with limited plays for the Bengals offense. The Falcons opponents have thrown the ball 94 times over the last two weeks, so it’s possible that the share is even larger for Boyd in Week 4. He’ll see Brian Poole the majority of time, who has allowed a 104.5 QB Rating in his coverage over his three-year career, so he’s hardly someone to avoid in matchups. Since the start of 2017, he’s allowed a 82 percent catch-rate in his coverage, so if Boyd sees eight targets, he might just come down with six or seven of them. He’s worth a play as a low-end WR3 in this game with how much he’s being used. Most don’t realize he has more yardage than Green right now.
John Ross: The miscommunications continued for Ross last week, as he saw a very respectable seven targets, but caught just three of them for 16 yards. Somehow, Ross has just 27 yards on 13 targets this season. Call me crazy, but they’re not using him the way he’s supposed to be used. It’s nice to see the targets, but he’s just a punt-play until we see him and Dalton get on the same page. On one of Dalton’s interceptions last week, Ross had his man beat down the middle of the field, but Dalton threw a go-route, while Ross ran a post. We’ll never know who was wrong on the play, but it certainly doesn’t help Ross’ chances moving forward. He’s nothing more than a tournament punt-play right now.
Julio Jones: He’s now got 20 receptions for 329 yards on the season, but no touchdowns. Only Brandin Cooks has more yardage without a touchdown. Although it’s not ideal, there’s a bright side to all of this. After Ridley burned the Saints No. 2 and 3 cornerbacks, they decided to pull Marshon Lattimore off Jones and put him on Ridley. The very next possession, Jones caught a 58-yard bomb from Ryan that was underthrown. It really should’ve been a 70-plus yard touchdown. Ridley is going to force defenses to remain honest, so Jones will have his days. The Bengals haven’t allowed a blow-up game to a wide receiver just yet, but they have allowed nine different pass-catchers to post double-digit PPR days. The most talented receiver they’ve faced to this point is T.Y. Hilton, so you shouldn’t even think about fading Jones here. Ryan will want to keep his No. 1 target fed, so play him as a high-end WR1 and expect results.
Calvin Ridley: Holy breakout, Mr. Ridley. We talked about the matchup last week right here saying it was a good one, so it’s great to see him take advantage of the weaker competition. He’s going to see that a lot with Jones on the other side of the field, though this week may be a bit tougher for Ridley. The Bengals haven’t used William Jackson in shadow coverage and he lines up on Ridley’s primary side. Jackson hasn’t been lights out through three weeks, allowing 9-of-16 passing for 101 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. He’ll be tested this week, but don’t be the person who forgets that Jones out-targeted Ridley 28-7 over the first two weeks – Julio is still the top dawg on campus. Ridley should be looked at as an upside WR3/4 this week who will get away from Jackson on roughly 40 percent of his snaps. Ridley was easily my favorite rookie wide receiver of the class, so I love the player, but have a hard time putting both him and Jones as weekly top-24 plays.
Mohamed Sanu: It seems everyone has forgotten about Sanu, who has the same exact number of targets as Ridley, though he doesn’t have 210 yards and four touchdowns to show for them like Ridley does. Just as Ridley benefits from Jones, Sanu will benefit from the both of them drawing safeties into lala land. His matchup with Darqueze Dennard is a good one, as Dennard has allowed a 108.1 or better QB Rating in three of his four NFL seasons. In fact, most though the Bengals would cut him after the 2016 season. Sanu isn’t a sexy start, but he’s also an underrated wide receiver you can snag off the waiver wire and get a WR5 floor for production, especially in PPR formats. His matchup might allow for better numbers in this game, especially if the Falcons get near the 74.7-play mark that the Bengals opponents have thus far.
TEs
Tyler Eifert: It was easily the most productive game of the year for Eifert in Week 3, though he didn’t get the touchdown, his teammate C.J. Uzomah did. He’s now up to 15 targets on the season while Uzomah is sitting at seven targets. The increased volume definitely helped Eifert last week, as would a limited Green. The Falcons defense doesn’t know a life without both starting safeties and starting inside linebacker, so Eifert can benefit if the Bengals choose to attack that area of the field. He ranks top-12 for targets, so it’s realistic to think Eifert is on the TE1 radar in this matchup. Just last week, the Falcons allowed Ben Watson a season-high five catches for 71 yards. He’s worth a play in tournaments knowing the high total in this game.
Austin Hooper: We talked about how Hooper would be a forgotten man in a defensive coordinator’s gameplan, but the Falcons aren’t going to suddenly abandon their three wide receivers who are superior to Hooper. The Bengals have struggled without Burfict out there, as they allowed 17 catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns to the combination of Colts and Ravens tight ends in Weeks 1 and 2 before holding rookie Ian Thomas in check with three catches for 20 yards last week. Hooper is going to be in play as a middling TE2 most weeks because he’ll consistently see 3-5 targets, but don’t expect miracles out of him. Despite seeing 132 combined attempts against them in the first three weeks, the Bengals haven’t allowed a wide receiver trio and tight end more than 250 yards and two touchdowns, which means unless the wide receivers flop, Hooper won’t be winning any tournaments for you.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 38.0
Line: JAX by 7.5
QBs
Sam Darnold: After starting out his career with a big win on Monday night football, Darnold has hit a bit of a wall, throwing four interceptions and just one touchdown the last two weeks. He’s going to have bad games as a rookie, it should be expected, but his offensive line will make his life harder. The Jaguars defense aren’t one to play around with, especially when they’re at home coming off a bad loss to the Titans. There’s been just two quarterbacks who’ve totaled more than 18 fantasy points against them over their last 19 games, so don’t overthink this one. Darnold isn’t even a preferred start in 2QB formats while in Jacksonville.
Blake Bortles: Remember when everyone though Bortles played better because Fournette was out of the lineup? Guys, it was such a small sample size and don’t forget, it’s still Bortles, one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL over the last three years. The Jets defense played really well against Tyrod Taylor last week, though Baker Mayfield brought something they weren’t prepared for. All in all, they’ve allowed just 6.1 yards per attempt on the year, which included making Matthew Stafford look terrible back in Week 1. The Jaguars are going to get back to the run this week in what should be a very low-scoring affair, making Bortles just a back-end QB2.
RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell: Go ahead and do your victory laps, Crowell supporters. Nevermind the fact that he’s totaled 69 rushing yards the last two weeks combined. There are plenty of running backs out there who are touchdown-or-bust, and while Crowell is better than that, he’s far from a must-start player. The Jaguars have allowed a rushing touchdown this year, though it was to Saquon Barkley on a run that went for 68 yards. Outside of that one giant run, they’ve allowed just 195 yards on 67 carries (2.91 yards per carry). With the embarrassing loss to the Titans last week, it’s fair to say the Jaguars defense will be out for blood. Crowell has performed better than I expected behind this offensive line, but I’m not betting on him breaking a long one against them this week, making him a low-upside RB4. The Jets backfield is essentially a 60/40 split on carries to Crowell and a 70/30 split on targets to Powell. The Jaguars did hold Barkley to just two catches for 22 yards and then Dion Lewis to just three catches for 14 yards, so it’s not a week to get excited about him, either.
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: After sitting out two weeks, Fournette will be back on the field this week. The Jets did lose some of the key members on their defensive line over the last few years, though they’ve been respectable against the run over the first three weeks, allowing just 3.75 yards per carry, though the competition has been somewhat weak. The Lions, Dolphins, and Browns were the opponents, so there wasn’t a single top-20 running back on the slate. They’ve still allowed three rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks, and Fournette will be as fresh as anyone. I’m of the mindset that they held him out last week to ensure he was 100 percent, so I’d be confident starting him as an RB1 this week who’ll get 20-plus carries. Even if it’s not a triple-A matchup, when you have someone of his talent level getting that much work, he’s a must play. Yeldon goes back to someone who can give you 4-6 points per week, but is likely just the handcuff.
WRs
Quincy Enunwa: He’s now seen 29-of-93 targets from Darnold through three weeks, which is a ridiculous 31.2 percent target share. The only players higher are Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. When those are the only names above you, you need to be in fantasy lineups every week. His matchup in the slot is also better than everyone else’s this week. D.J. Hayden has been a competent player throughout his career, but he’s nothing to run from. He’s seen just eight targets in coverage this year and has allowed 7/62/1 on them. With Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye stuck on the perimeter, you should probably be starting Enunwa as a WR3 in this game.
Robby Anderson: If there was one receiver the Jaguars would shadow in this matchup, it’s Anderson, though they may choose to simply play sides considering Anderson has seen just 10 targets through three weeks. He’s just not connecting with Darnold and even though Ramsey has been somewhat average in coverage this year, it’s the toughest matchup Anderson has had. You don’t want to believe that Darnold waits for this matchup to start targeting Anderson, making him just a big-play-or-bust WR5 option in season-long leagues this week. It should be noted that Anderson has run 42 percent of his routes from the slot, so he’d evade Ramsey’s coverage there, making him an interesting low-owned tournament option.
Keelan Cole: Whenever you play Cole, you’re subject to Bortles’ struggles and it’s what happened in Week 3 when Bortles completed just 21-of-34 attempts for 155 yards against the Titans. Cole had a tough matchup in that game while seeing Adoree Jackson, but he should find much more room to operate this week against the Jets. Cole plays roughly 75 percent of his snaps at either LWR or in the slot, which would match him up with Morris Claiborne and Buster Skrine most of the day. Those two have not been very good in coverage. In fact, Skrine may not even be available, forcing the Jets to start Parry Nickerson in the slot, which would be even better. While I’m expecting the Jaguars to run the ball a ton in this game, Cole should be the primary threat in the passing game, making him a decent WR3 against the Jets.
Donte Moncrief: He’s going to see Trumaine Johnson most of the day, which is not a good thing. On the season, Johnson has allowed just 99 scoreless yards on 16 targets in coverage, which is similar to the production he allowed while with the Rams the last few years. Moncrief has caught just seven passes through three games and will be a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks, and this matchup has bust written on it.
Dede Westbrook: If you’re looking for a pivot-play off Cole in this matchup, it’s Westbrook who plays roughly 75 percent of his snaps in the slot. Buster Skrine typically covers the slot for the Jets, but he suffered a knee injury in the Week 3 loss to the Browns, which means they may have to turn to Parry Nickerson, the sixth-round rookie. The duo of Skrine/Nickerson has allowed 12/155/1 on 16 targets in coverage this year, making Westbrook an interesting sleeper in Week 4, though the concern is that they only throw the ball 20-25 times in this game. He’s not safe by any means, but the matchup is about as good as they get.
TEs
Chris Herndon: Not that you’re going to play a Jets tight end, but the snap counts among them are: Herndon 112, Eric Tomlinson 90, Neal Sterling 50, Jordan Leggett 34. If there was a mess of tight end timeshares that wins an award, this would be it. Even worse, none of them have more than six targets through three games. It’s clear they’re still figuring things out, making them avoidable against a strong Jaguars defense.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: With Fournette out of the lineup, it was Seferian-Jenkins’ time to make a move, especially in the red zone. Unfortunately, he didn’t do anything to instill confidence in him. He’s seen exactly five targets in each game and caught at least three balls in each game. The issue is that he’s still failed to top 25 yards in a game, making him a touchdown-or-bust option, like many tight ends on the waiver wire. With Fournette coming back, he’s going to get the first shot on the goal-line, so Seferian-Jenkins’ odds of scoring just went down. The Jets haven’t allowed a tight end to top 36 yards this season, so there’s little reason to think Seferian-Jenkins should be on your streaming radar.
