Hallelujah, the NFL regular season is finally here.
The offseason always seems to last an eternity. It’s fun to analyze and debate player value in the spring and summer months, but we’re all craving actual football games and new data to gnaw on.
And here’s the really fun part: We’re so close to finding out how wrong we were about a bunch of different things.
Being wrong is fun?
Well, yeah, kind of.
I mean, would the NFL be the greatest sports league in the world if it were predictable? Of course not. The element of surprise is what makes the NFL — and fantasy football — so enjoyable.
Veteran fantasy managers know that things are about to get wild. New stars will emerge from the fog. Heretofore, reliable players will faceplant. One or two previously moribund offenses will spring to life. One or two will unexpectedly flop.
And of course, an unrelenting torrent of injuries will have us tearing our hair out.
The purpose of this weekly article is to try — I repeat: Try — to help bring some order to the chaos. I’ll provide tiered weekly fantasy football rankings and offer a few thoughts on some of the players who figure to be involved in a lot of difficult start/sit decisions. And I’ll try to shine a spotlight on players whose value is shifting one way or the other.
We made it through the long, dry offseason, friends. Break out the beverages and the nachos. The madness of fantasy football is back.
Hallelujah, the NFL regular season is finally here.
The offseason always seems to last an eternity. It’s fun to analyze and debate player value in the spring and summer months, but we’re all craving actual football games and new data to gnaw on.
And here’s the really fun part: We’re so close to finding out how wrong we were about a bunch of different things.
Being wrong is fun?
Well, yeah, kind of.
I mean, would the NFL be the greatest sports league in the world if it were predictable? Of course not. The element of surprise is what makes the NFL — and fantasy football — so enjoyable.
Veteran fantasy managers know that things are about to get wild. New stars will emerge from the fog. Heretofore, reliable players will faceplant. One or two previously moribund offenses will spring to life. One or two will unexpectedly flop.
And of course, an unrelenting torrent of injuries will have us tearing our hair out.
The purpose of this weekly article is to try — I repeat: Try — to help bring some order to the chaos. I’ll provide tiered weekly fantasy football rankings and offer a few thoughts on some of the players who figure to be involved in a lot of difficult start/sit decisions. And I’ll try to shine a spotlight on players whose value is shifting one way or the other.
We made it through the long, dry offseason, friends. Break out the beverages and the nachos. The madness of fantasy football is back.
Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Lineup Advice
Quarterbacks Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
With quarterback whisperer Liam Coen now overseeing the Jaguars’ offense and promising rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter arriving in Jacksonville, there’s reason to be optimistic about Jags QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence opens with a delicious home matchup against the Panthers, who allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, yielding 20.7 QB fantasy points per game. Carolina gave up a league-high 35 touchdown passes last season, and its opponent passer rating of 105.4 was the worst in the league. Lawrence is a top-10 fantasy quarterback for Week 1.
I’m fading Jordan Love this week. The Packers’ WR situation is murky. Rookie WR Matthew Golden is exciting, but he obviously hasn’t tasted NFL regular-season action yet. Wideout Jayden Reed is playing with a Jones fracture in his foot. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks… woof. Love faces a Detroit defense that has a tough secondary, and edge rusher extraordinaire Aidan Hutchinson is back to terrorize quarterbacks after missing most of the 2024 season with a broken leg. Also, Love didn’t play especially well against the Lions last season, scoring 11.9 and 14.5 fantasy points in his two starts against Detroit, with only one touchdown pass.
The FantasyPros expert consensus rankings (ECR) have QB Justin Herbert ranked QB17 this week. But Herbert could be a sneaky start because he always seems to bring his A-game against the Chiefs. In nine career starts against Kansas City, Herbert has averaged 266 passing yards and two touchdown passes per game. He’s also run for three touchdowns against the Chiefs, and he’s averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt against them.
Running Backs Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 5
Tier 6
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Tennessee RB Tony Pollard has a daunting Week 1 road matchup against a Denver defense that allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs last season. But with Titans RB Tyjae Spears out with a high-ankle sprain, Pollard should get a smorgasbord of touches. The promise of heavy touch volume should outweigh the matchup anxiety. Consider Pollard a mid-range RB2.
Chiefs back Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2 of 2024, came back in Week 13, and looked like a shell of himself upon his return. But Pacheco looked like his old self in the preseason, so maybe he’s back to being the clear lead back for the Chiefs. Of course, we may see more of RB Kareem Hunt than Pacheco investors would like, and maybe rookie back Brashard Smith plays on passing downs. Pacheco opens against a Chargers defense that yielded the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last season. With the division of labor in the Kansas City backfield not entirely clear, and with a suboptimal matchup, Pacheco should be considered a low-end RB2.
I wasn’t wildly excited about drafting RB David Montgomery this summer. The departure of former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is concerning, as is the retirement of stalwart center Frank Ragnow. It’s also possible the Lions opt to give more work to the electric back Jahmyr Gibbs and less to Montgomery. But Montgomery looks like an appealing Week 1 option. The Packers are going to have a fearsome pass rush with the addition of LB Micah Parsons. As part of the deal to acquire Parsons, Green Bay traded away its best interior run defender, DT Kenny Clark. Running up the middle is probably the best way to attack the Green Bay defense, so Montgomery should get plenty of work this week. Since joining the Lions, Montgomery has averaged 98 yards from scrimmage and has scored five touchdowns in four games against the Packers.
Although I preferred RJ Harvey to J.K. Dobbins in drafts, Dobbins is probably a better fantasy option than Harvey in Week 1. Dobbins is listed as the starter on the Broncos’ depth chart. He could get a majority of the snaps until Broncos head coach Sean Payton is comfortable with Harvey’s pass protection. And Dobbins will almost surely be Denver’s preferred goal-line back, at least early on. The Broncos are favored over the visiting Titans by more than a touchdown, so their game script should be run-friendly. Dobbins looks like a solid Week 1 option.
The Jaguars are listing Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby as co-starters. They’re both going to get work in Week 1. Jacksonville opens at home against a Carolina defense that gave up a league-worst 27.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game to running backs last year. The Panthers allowed 2,520 rushing yards to running backs, which was almost 500 yards more than the next-worst run defense. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown‘s return from injury will help staunch the bleeding for Carolina, but the Panthers still figure to have a below-average run defense. Etienne and Bigsby are both startable this week, even though they’re sharing work.
Wide Receivers Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 6
Tier 7
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
Understandably, some fantasy managers are skittish about WR Garrett Wilson this week, since Jets-Steelers is a potential rock fight with a Vegas total of 38.5 points. Quarterback Justin Fields has averaged only 25.1 pass attempts over 44 career starts, but Wilson could be among the league leaders in target share. There are no other proven commodities among the Jets’ pass-catchers. And we probably shouldn’t be overly fearful of Wilson matching up against Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had Porter graded 98th out of 118 cornerbacks last season. Not that Porter is a bad cover man, as that grade suggests. But he gave up 48 catches for 619 yards last season, per PFF. It’s not a stay-away matchup.
In the seven games that QB Jameis Winston started for the Browns last season, WR Jerry Jeudy averaged seven catches and 112.3 yards per game. Browns Week 1 starting quarterback Joe Flacco is the same sort of hyperaggressive downfield passer that Winston is. Eventually, the Browns will want to audition rookie signal-callers Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders to see where they stand at quarterback going into 2026, when they’ll have two first-round draft picks. But as long as Flacco is quarterbacking the Browns, Jeudy is a must-start — especially against a team like the Bengals, whose high-flying offense and sieve-like defense can turn any game into a track meet.
The biggest reason WR Chris Olave was being drafted as a low-end WR3 this summer was because of his concussion history. It wasn’t because of any questions about whether Olave is good. Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run over his first three NFL seasons. That’s just a shade below the career yards per route run for receivers CeeDee Lamb (2.28) and Ja’Marr Chase (2.25). Obviously, the Saints’ quarterbacking is a concern. But as long as Olave is healthy, you should play him. One slight concern for this week is that Saints head coach and play-caller Kellen Moore has been using Olave in the slot quite a bit, which means Olave could see a lot of Arizona’s best cover man, slot corner Garrett Williams, in Week 1.
Wideout Stefon Diggs is healthy again after tearing his ACL midway through the 2024 season. He’s expected to play without limitation in the Patriots’ season opener against the Raiders. Diggs is going to be QB Drake Maye‘s top target, and Las Vegas has one of the weaker groups of cornerbacks in the league. Start Diggs with confidence.
The FantasyPros team is very much in on Ricky Pearsall for the 2025 season. But for Week 1, Pearsall is a marginal fantasy starter. With WR Jauan Jennings in the lineup — and with TE George Kittle and RB Christian McCaffrey sure to demand their share of targets — Pearsall’s Week 1 target outlook is tough to pin down. Plus, he has a tricky Week 1 matchup against a Seattle defense that has a good pair of cornerbacks in Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. Ideally, your fantasy team is going into the season healthy, and you can give Pearsall a one-week trial run before throwing him into your lineup.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Matthew Golden, the Packers’ first-round rookie, will make an immediate splash. But I’m being cautious with Golden in Week 1, ranking him as a low-end WR4 against a Detroit defense that boasts one of the better secondaries in the league.
Tight Ends Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 5
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Browns TE David Njoku is a must-start this week. When QB Joe Flacco made five starts for Cleveland late in the 2023 season, Njoku had 30 receptions for 390 yards and four touchdowns in those five contests and led all tight ends in half-PPR scoring over that stretch. Njoku is now reunited with Flacco, and the veteran tight end opens with a terrific matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati allowed 111 catches, 1,114 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends in 2024.
The Ravens are expected to be without TE Isaiah Likely in Week 1 as he recovers from a broken bone in his foot. That brightens the target outlook for TE Mark Andrews, who turns 30 the day before the Ravens’ season opener against the Bills in Buffalo. Andrews started slowly last season but scored 11 touchdowns over his last 12 games. Consider him a mid-range TE1 this week.
Packers TE Tucker Kraft has a difficult Week 1 matchup against a Lions defense that gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last year. Kraft had 34 and 41 yards in his two games against Detroit last season.
You’re probably not looking to stream a tight end in Week 1, but TE Brenton Strange could be a sneaky-good tight end option. He’s now starting for the Jaguars following the offseason departure of TE Evan Engram, and Strange kicks off the season with an attractive matchup against the Panthers, who gave up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends last season. Tight ends scored 11 touchdowns against Carolina in 2024.
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