Welcome back! Week 6 is in the books, and it’s time to sift through everything we just watched. This article isn’t about charts or graphs anymore — it’s about clear, actionable takeaways. My goal each week is simple: give you the most important moves to make across every game — who to add, drop, buy, sell, start, or stash — based on what actually matters (or what I think does).
I’ve already done the legwork digging into the data and film. You just get the results — no noise, no overthinking. Expect plenty of notes on players coming off big or confusing performances, because that’s where the edge usually is.
Let’s go beyond the box scores, beyond the headlines… and once again, Beyond the Waiver Wire.
LFG.
Beyond the Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football Moves to Make
Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson
We got a report early Sunday morning that Bam Knight would be the Cardinals’ starter instead of Michael Carter.
The backfield touches were essentially a split, with Knight seeing more carries and Carter seeing more targets.
Carter also STARTED the game and saw the majority of work early on. But like last week, Knight scored a touchdown – this time from the one-yard line. However, he also got hurt at the end of the third quarter (but he returned). He seems to have a lock on the red-zone role (2 carries inside the 5-yard line).
Like I said last week when mentioning Carter as a sell: This Arizona backfield is very unpredictable.
Emari Demercado has one touch but got hurt in the second quarter (ankle injury).
According to NFL.com’s Michael Florio:
- Bam Knight: 51% snaps, 11 carries, 14 routes, two targets (54 yds, TD)
- Michael Carter: 44% snaps, nine carries, 20 routes (41%), five targets (64 yds)
- Emari Demercado played three snaps (4%)
This backfield will remain an RBBC.
The Packers and then a bye week next. Sell.
According to the FantasyPros SOS tool, Arizona’s RB schedule ROS is bottom-8.
Both Cardinals’ top two WRs got hurt in this game. The Marvin Harrison Jr. concussion is particularly concerning, as it is his second documented concussion since entering the NFL. I would expect MHJ to miss the next two weeks. Michael Wilson did return to the game.
In their absence, guys like Zay Jones (5-79 on nine targets) and stud TE Trey McBride (8-72-1) stepped up big. No concerns with McBride if Jacoby Brissett is the starter with Kyler Murray hurt. Hell, it might be good. One game with Brissett – already found the end zone. Peppered with end-zone targets. Jacoby knows where the bread is buttered.
Kyler Murray’s injury, a mid-foot sprain, is a version of a Lisfranc injury, source said. There is a possibility Murray is out more than this week, as pushing it can cause an aggravation. https://t.co/VxFq1n4RUm
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 12, 2025
If you are hurting at WR, Jones and/or Wilson are desperation additions to consider.
Wilson saw a 22% air yards share (82 air yards), going 4 for 44 on five targets.
The Packers have a tough run defense, but can be thrown on.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 8 | BYE |
| Week 9 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 10 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 11 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 13 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 14 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 15 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 16 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 17 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 18 | at Los Angeles Rams |
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Drake London & Add Michael Penix Jr.
Both Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud (healthy scratch) missed this game. That set the stage for Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Casey Washington to lead the Falcons’ offense.
And London smashed.
Per Next Gen Stats…London was targeted on nearly half of his routes against the Bills, hauling in 10 of 16 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown across 34 routes.
London accounted for 74.3% of the Falcons’ team air yards on the night. Only four Falcons players caught a pass from Michael Penix on the night. Every one of London’s receptions came either in the short area (6 receptions, 79 yards, TD on 0-9 air yard targets) or intermediate (4 receptions, 79 yards on 10-19 air yard targets).
I knew I was high on this guy during draft season for a reason!
I like the schedule ROS for the Falcons’ bye week (top-10 ROS). Keep in mind that the Falcons fired their previous WR coach before Week 4, in an effort to get more offensive WR production. So far, so good.
Last two weeks, London has averaged 13 targets, nine receptions, and 134 receiving yards per game.
Can’t say the same for Kyle Pitts. He’s had good moments this year…but Monday Night was not one. He tripped on one of his catches and finished with just three grabs for 18 yards on four targets. Prime opportunity for Pitts with Mooney out…and he face planted. He had two RZ targets but only caught one for -2 yards.
Other notes are that the Falcons suffered another blow to their offensive line – Jake Matthews suffered an ankle injury. Atlanta might get OT Storm Norton back after he suffered an injury in the pre-season.
If the OL can get healthy, watch out for this offense to cook.
The Falcons have the No. 1 SOS rest of season for QBs. Let Penix COOK.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 8 | Miami Dolphins |
| Week 9 | at New England Patriots |
| Week 10 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 11 | Carolina Panthers |
| Week 12 | at New Orleans Saints |
| Week 13 | at New York Jets |
| Week 14 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 15 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 16 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 17 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 18 | New Orleans Saints |
Baltimore Ravens
Buy Derrick Henry
Naturally, when I finally generate the courage to take the under on the Big Dog in a brutal matchup, he truck sticks me. Derrick Henry rushed for 122 yards with no TDs in Week 6.
At least the buy-low take from last week aged well!
Zay Flowers entered the game on a pitch count, but you couldn’t tell from his box score. 6-46 on a team-high 10 targets.
good lawd "insider" reporting has been so bad…
Zay Flowers in Week 6: 71 of 78 possible snaps played.
he was supposed to be "limited"…ok.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 13, 2025
And apparently, there was no snap count. I get it’s Halloween szn, but enough of these ghost reports about players’ playing time — 91% snap rate for the Ravens WR1. LOL.
The Ravens are screaming buy-low candidates across the board with the idea that Lamar Jackson comes back after the bye week.
Coach John Harbaugh noted after Sunday’s loss to the Rams that Jackson (hamstring) is expected to return to action in Week 8
If there’s anybody to consider stashing…it’s Isaiah Likely. Mark Andrews has been heavily discussed in trades dating back to the summer.
Likely out-snapped Andrews (81% to 78%) in Week 6, running more routes than the veteran.
Schedule
| Week 7 | BYE |
| Week 8 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 9 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 10 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 11 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 12 | New York Jets |
| Week 13 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 15 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 16 | New England Patriots |
| Week 17 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 18 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
Buffalo Bills
Buy Keon Coleman
Tight end Dalton Kincaid did not play due to an oblique injury. And that was just the first injury Buffalo had to deal with. They lost DT Da’Quan Jones (along with more secondary injuries) and WR Josh Palmer. Palmer looked primed for a big game – broadcast spoke about Joe Brady wanting to get him more involved – but he got hurt after his second catch.
Tyrell Shavers ended up being more involved, which is not a recipe for success.
Keon Coleman led the team with six targets but finished with just three catches for 11 yards.
If Kincaid/Palmer are out long-term, Buffalo needs their second-year WR to step up.
And although the yardage hasn’t been there…Coleman has 6-plus targets in back-to-back games. 23% target share over the last two weeks (against two better man CBs). Leader in air yards.
Trust the process. Add Coleman after he gets dropped this week (the Bills are on a bye week in Week 7).
James Cook played a season-low (not including blow-outs) in snaps versus Atlanta. The Bills took him out in passing downs in favor of Ty Johnson (why tho)…as he saw zero involvement as a receiver (no targets and fewer routes than Johnson). With Cook running the ball effectively and Buffalo down multiple skill players, this made no sense. Buffalo likes Johnson as a pass-catcher, but when push comes to shove, Cook is the guy you paid to be your superstar.
When Sean McDermott was asked about Cook’s usage post-game, he acknowledged that it might change moving forward. What a novel idea. Buy Cook on the bye week.
Schedule
| Week 7 | BYE |
| Week 8 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 9 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 10 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 12 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 13 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 14 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 15 | at New England Patriots |
| Week 16 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 18 | New York Jets |
Carolina Panthers
Add Jalen Coker
Rico Dowdle SZN. Another monster game for the Panthers running back filling in for Chuba Hubbard — 34 touches for over 200 yards from scrimmage.
Now the question becomes…what happens to this backfield after Hubbard returns?
They’re going to use both guys. Unfortunately, that could turn this backfield into something like Seattle’s (gross).
The matchups also won’t be better than they have been over the last two weeks.
Dowdle is a sell in theory, but he is probably closer to a hold in practice because everybody knows that Hubbard will return at some point, and you won’t get much in return versus just holding as a starter the next week or so.
If anything, I’d look to trade him TO the Hubbard manager.
Dowdle and Hubbard rank 3rd and 4th, respectively, in rushing success rate this season.
The broadcast talked about wanting to get rookie WR Jimmy Horn Jr. more involved. Noteworthy, but not super actionable, considering Jalen Coker will be coming back soon.
Tetairoa McMillan finally scored! Twice! And of course, it came on one of his worst receiving outputs of the season. If you missed the buy-low window, fear not. Jets and CB Sauce Garnder are up next – so we could see a meh game from T-Mac. Always buying. The rookie WR is 13th in XPPG this season.
Also, another reason to add Coker off waivers. Targets should flow his way as the Panthers’ slot WR VS Gang Green.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at New York Jets |
| Week 8 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 9 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 10 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 11 | at Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 12 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 13 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 14 | BYE |
| Week 15 | at New Orleans Saints |
| Week 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 17 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 18 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Chicago Bears
Add Luther Burden and Kyle Monangai | Hold D’Andre Swift | Sell D.J. Moore
Did we get a post-rookie bump for our trio of Bears?
Slightly. Olamide Zaccheaus remained the No.3 WR for Chicago – although he had a bad game with multiple drops despite a team-high six targets.
Luther Burden played 23% of the snaps – but he was productive, leading Chicago in receptions (4) for 51 yards (four targets). He also saw a season high in route participation (41%) to go with a high 31% target rate per route run.
Make sure he is not available on waivers. Zacchaeus’s role seems destined to decrease.
Colston Loveland only played 42% of the snaps compared to Cole Kmet‘s 52% – but he ran more routes. The rookie TE lost a catch on a flag – but was otherwise not super involved.
He was questionable entering the game, so it’s not surprising that he was lackluster.
Worth noting that the Bears ran more 11 personnel (89%) in Week 6. Per Next Gen Stats, this was their highest rate in a game since at least 2016 and the highest rate in any game Ben Johnson has coached or coordinated.
As for the backfield – great game for D’Andre Swift.
Per Next Gen Stats…Swift rushed for a season-high 108 yards on 14 carries against the Commanders on Monday night.
Swift gained 87 yards on nine carries against loaded boxes, compared to 21 yards on five carries when the Bears had a numbers advantage in the box. When rushing outside, Swift ran for 91 yards on eight carries, while on inside runs, he earned only 17 yards on six carries. Swift added two receptions for 67 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown catch-and-run that pulled the Bears within two.
The Bears got the elusive back outside in space, and he delivered.
The ground game looked vastly improved out of the bye week – although Swift played his second-lowest snap rate of the season (56%).
I’ve been on the “sell Swift” train basically all year, so I do think this big prime-time game creates a good SELL-HIGH window. However, the upcoming schedule is GREAT, and Swift looked much better post bye week. Probably a better hold than sell – unless you can get someone to overpay.
Swift is a fantasy RB2. Always has been, and likely always will be. No more, no less.
Seventh-round rookie RB Kyle Monangai played 34% of the snaps, which was the second-highest mark of the season. 5 carries for 19 yards and two targets for 25 yards.
It’s still Swift’s job to lose, so Monangai might need an injury to get fully unlocked. Regardless, I like stashing him as an upside play later down the line.
He and Swift both had red-zone carries…
Not to mention, the schedule is great for both of these Bears RBs over the next month.
Rome Odunze also scored, but it was called back on a flag. He was due for an eventual dud as he wasn’t going to score every week, so I wouldn’t worry about the second-year WR.
My major sell for the Bears – DJ Moore – didn’t bounce back like Swift. He had two carries for 10 yards (including from the 7-yard line) but caught just three passes for 42 yards. Mostly more short stuff for Moore.
Remains a sell. DJ Moore’s managers are just keeping their fingers crossed that he gets traded at some point.
Note that Moore was also transported to the hospital following Monday night’s game against the Commanders, and he will be held overnight for precautionary medical evaluation.
Schedule
| Week 7 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 8 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 9 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 10 | New York Giants |
| Week 11 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 13 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 14 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 15 | Cleveland Browns |
| Week 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 17 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 18 | Detroit Lions |
Cincinnati Bengals
Add Noah Fant | Sell Chase Brown
Through one half, it sure looked like the Bengals would have to trade for another QB to start in Week 7. But give credit to Joe Flacco, who found a connection with Ja’Marr Chase in the second half.
Flacco threw for just his age (40 yards) in the first half. Second half, Chase (mostly fourth quarter) caught eight balls for 80 yards and 1 TD.
Chase was my “sell-high” trade last week, so I don’t feel great about how well he played. But for the second straight week, it was driven by fourth-quarter scoring. But it wasn’t garbage time with the game at a 10-point deficit. So far, the Flacco acquisition seems to have been a positive for Chase – although I don’t think this will be his box score every single week.
I also recognized that Chase would still have productive weeks, but there’s still immense risk with a 40-year-old QB behind a patchwork OL.
According to Next Gen Stats, Joe Flacco was pressured on just 26.1% of dropbacks in his first start with the Bengals in Week 6, lower than any mark as the Browns starter this season. Flacco completed 23 of his 34 passes from a clean pocket for 197 yards and both of his touchdowns in his Bengals debut. When pressured, he completed 6 of 11 passes for just 22 yards.
Flacco got the ball out quicker than any other QB in Week 6 (2.35 ATT). We’ll see how defenses adjust to the quick passing game.
In Jake Browning‘s first game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, he was pressured on just 27% of dropbacks. It was north of 38% in the next three games.
Still lean toward sell/hold for Chase – but obviously the return is what matters the most.
Tee Higgins also got banged up a bit in this game (checked for a concussion after being tackled at the one-yard line).
Interestingly enough, the Chase Brown usage TANKED in Week 6. He played just 54% of the snaps compared to Samaje Perine‘s 46%. Perine even got the first carry and was only out-touched 8-11. The last two weeks, this has been closer to a 60/40 split.
Last week I chalked it up to garbage time…but this is a more concerning split. Only two targets, with Flacco under center. He likely would have scored a TD had it not been for a penalty at the goal line, but that would have just salvaged his fantasy outing if anything.
Brown was at least more efficient as a rusher (season-high YPC and success rate), but that doesn’t help us that much for fantasy purposes. He needs volume to thrive in a bad offense. Brown ranks second-to-last in rushing success rate this season. It’s a tough draw next week versus a healthy Steelers defense.
Mike Gesicki is going to be out for a while. Only sickos would stream a tight end for the Bengals on Thursday night, but the matchup is good versus Pittsburgh.
Noah Fant played the most snaps/routes – but it was split between him, Tanner Hudson (scored), and Drew Sample. Hudson is in concussion protocol, though, so that would narrow the tight end passing role to just Fant.
And although it’s hard to believe, Flacco overlapped with Fant during the tight end’s rookie season in Denver back in 2019. Wild times.
Fant has been a floor player in every game he’s played in full this season, with at least 3-plus receptions for 26-plus yards.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers (TNF) |
| Week 8 | New York Jets |
| Week 9 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 10 | BYE |
| Week 11 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 12 | New England Patriots |
| Week 13 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 14 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Week 15 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 16 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 17 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 18 | Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns
Buy Quinshon Judkins | Add Harold Fannin/Jerry Jeudy
Just a tough matchup for the entire Browns offense. We knew this going in, as it was Dillon Gabriel‘s first road start against a well-rested Steelers defense. The expectations should have been low. And of course, Harold Fannin out-produces David Njoku after we got the reverse last week. These guys continue to be so flippy-floppy – which I acknowledged on shows heading into Week 6. Njoku was my highest-ranked Browns TE in Week 6, but I was ready to be wrong. Yup. Wrong. Fannin caught 7 for 81 on 10 targets. Njoku went 3-28 on six targets (although he went 0-2 in the red zone). When Gabriel is under center, the Browns’ tight ends have seen a ton of targets. They’ve combined for 30 targets (36% the last two games).
Each guy will have a floor based on volume. And if Njoku scores/doesn’t get hurt, you aren’t upset. Still, the six-week sample size of Fannin-Njoku has favored the rookie more often than not. In this past game, Fannin played 80% of the snaps to Njoku’s 44%. Now, this was more related to Njoku getting shook up in this game more than once (although he returned both times) before missing most of the fourth quarter. Add Fannin if Njoku is more injured than might be led on. According to Yahoo Sports, head coach Kevin Stefanski clarified that the tight end didn’t suffer a quad injury, but rather a setback to his knee. The rookie TE had five targets in the fourth quarter alone after Njoku left.
Jerry Jeudy just continues to underwhelm. 16 targets (3 RZ targets) but just five catches for 43 yards. Jeudy is just racking up expected fantasy points. In his defense, he did have a 22-yard catch removed on an illegal formation.
And regardless of how bad Jeudy continues to play, the HC continues to pound the table for his No. 1 WR. Post-game…”Ball is gonna keep coming his way.”
Watching this game, I knew Jeudy would POP in XFP. Literally No.1 WR on the week. And naturally, this year, no WR is scoring fewer points versus expectation than Jeudy. Womp.
You could do worse at home versus Miami in Week 7 than using Jeudy. Usage is there, and Njoku might be out.
Quinshon Judkins has been game script proof in past games, but this contest wasn’t close enough to keep him involved. The Browns turned to Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson down so much.
Ford matched Judkins’ snap share (40%), with Sampson also chipping in (18%).
Regardless, the Browns’ defense should keep games closer than in Week 6 (especially when they play at home). This was just a brutal spot for the Browns overall, playing the week after a London game on the road against a healthier Steelers defense.
Process says…buy low on Judkins (while also fully acknowledging the Judkins suspension risk).
Top-10 ROS schedule for RBs.
The Browns still have offensive line issues, as Jack Conklin and Cam Robinson left this game with injuries.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Miami Dolphins |
| Week 8 | at New England Patriots |
| Week 9 | BYE |
| Week 10 | at New York Jets |
| Week 11 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 12 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 13 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 14 | Tennessee Titans |
| Week 15 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 16 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 18 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
Dallas Cowboys
Buy Javonte Williams
FITZ WAS RIGHT. The Panthers’ run defense isn’t as bad as it’s been historically. Back-to-back weeks, they’ve held De’Von Achane and Javonte Williams to less than 2.2 yards per carry.
Still, not worried about Javonte’s first bad game. The Cowboys RB played 85% of the snaps and had plenty of red-zone work (6 RZ opportunities), but didn’t score. Still totaled 18 touches (8 targets), and Jaydon Blue played five offensive snaps after Miles Sanders was placed on IR.
Eventually, some of the Dallas o-line injuries would catch up with them, and that was the case in Week 6.
I like the schedule upcoming for Williams (home vs WAS, @ DEN, and home vs ARI) before a Week 10 bye week.
Williams ranks 7th in rushing success rate this season.
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said Monday that Kavonte Turpin (foot) is among the injured players who “have a chance” to retake the field Sunday versus the Commanders, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Eventually, CeeDee Lamb will also return, and that will impact George Pickens‘ WR1 production.
He is currently 3rd in expected fantasy points scored above expectation
You can try to sell based on Lamb’s return – but that works better in theory than in practice. You probably won’t get enough (although you can always try). Probably a better hold. Same for TE Jake Ferguson, as top tight ends are hard to find.
Still, you should at least put them on the block and entertain some trades.
The one player that benefits from Lamb returning? Javonte Williams.
Tyler Booker, Lamb, and Turpin are expected to practice this week.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Washington Commanders |
| Week 8 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 9 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 10 | BYE |
| Week 11 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 12 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 13 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 14 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 15 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 16 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 17 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 18 | at New York Giants |
Denver Broncos
Buy RJ Harvey | Hold J.K. Dobbins
The Jets made life tough on the Broncos’ offense. Their defense was hardly the reason they lost in London, as their offense could do virtually nothing. They were missing one of their starting offensive line pieces (Ben Powers), who was placed on IR earlier in the week.
J.K. Dobbins was the lead back but was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries.
RJ Harvey played a supporting role with just two carries while chipping in four catches for 21 yards.
In full PPR, Harvey out-scored Dobbins, ironically, (running more routes).
I’ve been on the “sell-high” on Dobbins take for a bit….
We know Dobbins’ injury track record. But if you are cool just riding it out, be my guest. Especially the next two weeks versus NYG/DAL. Hold Dobbins for two more weeks and still add/buy Harvey.
On the live game broadcast, Sean Payton told Kurt Warner that he [Harvey] can be a special type of player with the ball in his hands, and maybe the only thing holding him back is me [Payton] not calling his number enough.
The receiving has been very solid thus far. Suggests he has a high ceiling if something were to happen to Dobbins.
Pat Bryant also played more, splitting time with Troy Franklin as the WR2 in the offense. Marvin Mims? Yeah, that’s right. Still buried. However, Bryant is running fewer routes than both those guys, as he is used more in the blocking game.
It was a good matchup for Franklin in the slot, but he was left with just a 3-19 performance.
Evan Engram‘s role didn’t change (sub-50% snap rate), but he was hyper-targeted with six targets, going 5 for 42.
Not ideal by any means for usage, but he has been part of the passing game the last two weeks.
Schedule
| Week 7 | New York Giants |
| Week 8 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 9 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 11 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 12 | |
| Week 13 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 14 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 15 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 17 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 18 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Detroit Lions
Sell David Montgomery
David Montgomery was my big “sell” after last week’s game. And I hope you did because he laid a dud on Sunday Night. I’ve been talking about this throughout my articles this season, but he is seeing significantly less work under new OC Jon Morton. Just four carries to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 17. Monty played 31% of the snaps (16 snaps). Lowest of the season after playing a season-high last week (54%).
Obviously, if the pass TD to Jared Goff stands, Monty’s final stat line isn’t as bad. But passing TDs (although almost done successfully for two weeks in a row) aren’t reliable fantasy production.
Now Monty won’t be as bad on SNF in future weeks. Lions will be winning, with positive game scripts, etc. But if this defense continues to force shootouts…that’s bad news for Montgomery in a negative game script.
Mongomery is very TD-dependent. And even though next week is a home game…it’s against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.
I called my shot on Jameson Williams, and he delivered big-time. 6-66-1 on seven targets. He is boom-or-bust like most WRs, but Week 6 is the reason why he’s worth starting as a weekly WR3/FLEX play.
At home versus the Buccaneers in Week 7? Buckle up.
Although it doesn’t show up in the box score, Isaac TeSlaa played almost 50% of the snaps. Kalif Raymond was questionable entering the game and barely played on offense.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 8 | |
| Week 9 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 10 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 11 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 12 | New York Giants |
| Week 13 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 14 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 15 | at Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 17 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 18 | at Chicago Bears |
Green Bay Packers
Buy Matthew Golden | Add Christian Watson
The post-rookie usage bump! Matthew Golden came out of the Packers’ week off going 3-86 on five targets. 5 total touches for over 100 yards from scrimmage.
In his post-game presser, HC Matt LaFleur spoke about finding ways to get Golden the ball…with the caveat that they won’t “force feed” anybody despite what everybody desires.
Golden recorded a career-high 86 receiving yards on three receptions (5 targets) in a Week 6 victory over the Bengals.
The Packers rookie hauled in 2 catches on three downfield targets (10+ air yards), including two receptions on passes traveling 20+ air yards. Golden has accumulated four receptions on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, matching the combined total of all other Packers players (4). 39% air yards share (86 air yards) in Week 6 – same as Romeo Doubs.
Romeo Doubs led the team with nine targets, going 5-55. Solid.
Note that Dontayvion Wicks also got hurt in this game.
Tucker Kraft didn’t go wild in the yardage department, but was very efficient, averaging 24 yards per catch with a TD grab.
Buy Josh Jacobs. One of the easiest schedules for ROS. Add Emanuel Wilson as his handcuff in deeper formats.
I should note that the Packers’ defense suffered more injuries versus Cincy.
Lukas Van Ness and Javon Bullard both got hurt.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 8 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 9 | Carolina Panthers |
| Week 10 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 11 | at New York Giants |
| Week 12 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 13 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 14 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 15 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 16 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 17 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 18 | at Minnesota Vikings |
Houston Texans
Add Jayden Higgins
The Woody Marks breakout did not continue into Week 5…
Even though the rookie out-snapped Nick Chubb (39% versus 34%), the veteran RB out-carried Marks (11 vs 7) and was more efficient. Mr. 5-yards-per-carry is back (well, at least he was vs the Ravens).
Each RB saw one target apiece. I think this game is just a reminder that Chubb isn’t going away completely. Even when it looked like Marks was taking over the last few weeks, Chubb was still involved. And I think he’s been running fine despite the circumstances (Texans OL). Chubb owns a higher YPC and success rate than Marks this season. Marks has the worst rushing success rate (25%) this season.
But keep in mind that overall snap counts are a bit skewed, given Dameon Pierce got some run at the end of the game. And Marks still has had a role in the red zone…with two more red-zone carries versus the Ravens (including at the 4-yard line). Chubb scored on a 27-yard run.
C.J. Stroud won’t toss 4 TDs every week. And definitely not in Week 7 against a furious Seahawks pass rush. The Seahawks pressured Trevor Lawrence on 25 of his 50 dropbacks in Week 6 (50% pressure rate). Yikes.
With Houston coming off the bye in Week 7, it’s a reminder to buy into rookies seeing larger roles (including this team’s rookies). Marks might be a nice buy-low after he failed to live up to the hype in a juicy matchup. As alluded to, Houston has a brutal schedule after the bye week…Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, before things get lighter. The QB schedule is tied with the Raiders for the toughest ROS.
Best to leave the Texans’ offense on other teams for now. But for those who have Texans hold them and hope that they can build off this performance versus the Ravens.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 8 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 9 | Denver Broncos |
| Week 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 11 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 12 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 13 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 14 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 15 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 16 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 17 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 18 | Indianapolis Colts |
Indianapolis Colts
Add Josh Downs
Jonathan Taylor is inevitable. DO NOT trade him away.
Can’t say the same for Michael Pittman Jr. After defending his honor on the Week 6 Rankings Show, he completely duds out. 2-20 on three targets.
Meanwhile, another strong showing from Josh Downs. Downs is a very good player and has been turning it on in the last couple of games. 6-42-1 on seven targets (4 RZ targets, 23% target share).
Super high grade per PFF. Back-to-back weeks leading WRs in targets. Add him if he was dropped.
Adonai Mitchell was a healthy scratch. Woof.
Also, the Colts lost another CB in pre-game warm-ups (Charvarius Ward) due to a concussion. They have a very thin secondary.
Also note that the Colts have a tough schedule for QBs – No. 32 per FP SOS tool.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 8 | Tennessee Titans |
| Week 9 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 10 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 11 | Bye |
| Week 12 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 13 | Houston Texans |
| Week 14 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 15 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 16 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 18 | at Houston Texans |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sell Travis Etienne | Hold/Sell Travis Hunter
YHTSI – Brian Thomas Jr. has a 54-yard TD wiped out on an offensive offsides penalty….on Travis Hunter. Woof.
Even so, BTJ was BACK in Week 6. 8-90-1 on a team-high 11 targets (24% target share). Again, another guy I thought was trending in the right direction, and he delivered against an injury-depleted Seahawks secondary.
15th in XPPG this season. Trending up!
Hunter also saw seven targets – but finished 4 for 15. He ran a route on 86% of the dropbacks (season-high) with 22 snaps on defense (40%). Still, it’s really hard to start Hunter with any semblance of confidence when his focus is split on two sides of the ball.
Hunter is WR63 in XPPG. WR79 in PPG. PFF’s 18th-lowest graded WR through 6 weeks.
And after he had a week of strong usage downfield in Week 5, he saw his ADOT plummet to four yards in Week 5. Hence, the low yardage totals.
Eighteen of his 20 catches have been under 10 air yards.
If I can hold him through the bye week, I’d like to. But if somebody wants to go after him aggressively, I think I am okay to part ways.
Dyami Brown saw several deep targets (82 air yards).
Travis Etienne was bottled up for the second straight game. 12 for 27 yards. Starting center Robert Hainsey did not play.
Bhayshul Tuten had a 2-point attempt as well to go with two carries for 14 yards.
I’ve talked about Etienne as a sell…and the tougher matchups he has had are hurting his production.
Etienne is still averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season, but his success rate ranks 16th-worst (39%). Tuten’s is nearly 9% points higher.
Schedule doesn’t get much easier with the Rams, BYE, Raiders, and Texans in the next month.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams (London) |
| Week 8 | BYE |
| Week 9 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 10 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 11 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 12 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 13 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 14 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 15 | New York Jets |
| Week 16 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 17 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 18 | Tennessee Titans |
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Isiah Pacheco
Alright, I think I FINALLY know what I want to do with Isiah Pacheco. And that’s buy.
No doubt it’s been tough sledding for the Chiefs’ backfield. But Pacheco has looked good the last few weeks.
The snap share also continues to climb. 77% in Week 6 (season-high in carries at 12), after a season-high number in Week 5.
It’s trending all the way up for Pacheco. Per Next Gen Stats, he had four rushes of 15-plus yards vs Detroit. He had four combined leading up to Week 6.
Pacheco also had three targets to Hunt’s one (Brashard Smith drew 4). More importantly, the Chiefs RB had four red-zone carries to Hunt’s one. Hunt had just five routes to Pacheco’s 19 (50%).
PACHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU WRECK YOURSELF.
If the Chiefs offense turns back into a fantasy wagon…I think dumpster diving for Pacheco is a sharp move to make. Top-10 ROS schedule for RBs.
Rashee Rice will return to the Chiefs starting in Week 7. He was a fantasy WR1 last season before his injury. Obviously, the WR room is different from last season with Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, and Tyquan Thornton healthy and more involved. That being said, Rice still has the chance to be a force down the stretch for KC….and he is worth kicking the tires on – especially if the Rice manager in your league has a losing record.
Rice’s impending return is also your last chance to trade away Travis Kelce (6-78-0 on seven targets). Kelce only ran a route on 58% of the dropbacks on Sunday Night.
I’d presume JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s playing time takes the biggest hit with the return of Rice (same with Tyquan Thornton).
Schedule
| Week 7 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 8 | Washington Commanders |
| Week 9 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Week 10 | BYE |
| Week 11 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 12 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 13 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 14 | Houston Texans |
| Week 15 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 16 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 17 | Denver Broncos |
| Week 18 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers | Add Tre Tucker/Michael Mayer
Ashton Jeanty is a bell cow. And with Dylan Laube potentially hurt…that creates a window for him to see more work as a receiver (four targets in Week 6). The Raiders RB ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks – almost doubled from last week (34%).
The rookie is overcoming OL issues. And I think they continue to lean heavily on him. The Raiders – per the SOS tool – have a top-3 ROS schedule for fantasy RBs.
However, that’s mostly after their bye week. Wait until Jeanty underwhelms on the road vs KC…and then go buy.
Another terrible game for Jakobi Meyers. Not involved whatsoever. Given how involved he usually is (high-floor player), this is concerning with back-to-back dud weeks.
Meanwhile, Tre Tucker led the Raiders in yardage (70) with five catches on five targets (22% target share)
Chip Kelly loves involving Tucker, and Meyers not so much. Tucker had a 1.4 aDOT in Week 6.
I think there’s a chance that Meyers gets traded. Hold for now on fantasy benches.
Meyers did see the majority of air yards (68% but just 34 air yards) in a low passing effort from Geno Smith. Meyers is WR26 in XPPG this season.
Without Brock Bowers…Michael Mayer played 92% of the snaps. 5-50-1 on seven targets (30% target share).
Add if you need a one-week fill-in.
The earliest we could see Brock Bowers is after the bye week.
Gotten a lot of questions regarding Bowers…and I think he is worth kicking the tires on if you are just streaming tight ends.
He can be a difference-maker when healthy. Anybody in fantasy that can be a true difference-maker can be a needle-mover. If he can do his best Puka Nacua impression from last season…make a move. Chances are, the Bowers manager has a losing record and would be willing to sell for pennies on the dollar.
Pete Carroll was less than optimistic about Bowers’ chances to return this week, noting that his long-term health is what is most important.
Note the Raiders have a tough schedule for QBs – No. 32 per FP SOS tool.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 8 | BYE |
| Week 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 10 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 11 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 12 | Cleveland Browns |
| Week 13 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 14 | Denver Broncos |
| Week 15 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 16 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 17 | New York Giants |
| Week 18 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Kimani Vidal
Another fun backfield to break down. First off, it looks like Omarion Hampton is going to be out longer than the 4-week minimum for IR players. And the Chargers are shopping for an RB.
As for Week 6. We’ve received another report that Hasaan Haskins will be the lead back. It wasn’t true at all. Kimani Vidal started and dominated touches from the jump. And like last week – which might have been a precursor to his role in Week 6 – Vidal dominated red-zone touches with 8.
Now, the most likely outcome was that this would be some sort of committee. Matches Greg Roman’s history of RB usage and the coachspeak.
But given the report, the confidence level went heavily toward Haskins – even though it was completely wrong.
Vidal rushed 18 times for 124 yards and caught a TD on 3 of his four targets. Haskin struggled as a rusher (6 for 14), like last week. It was why I was hesitant to go all in on Haskins off waivers – but obviously wasn’t aggressive enough on Vidal.
Haskins felt like the “safer” bet. Hence, his priority on waivers and in the Week 6 rankings. Add the report pre-game, and that’s confirmation bias at its finest.
But Vidal seemed to have the most untapped potential if he were actually to seize the job. The problem was that there wasn’t much sense to believing that (aside from Haskins just being a bad RB). In hindsight, I think shooting for upside with Vidal – even if he was a total zero – might have been the better approach, acknowledging that Haskins might have been the RB1.
Vidal was definitely a sharp play in DFS this past week…the odds of one guy being the guy were probably closer to 50/50 when there ownership %s hardly matched that.
– Kimani Vidal: 67% snaps, 18 carries, 18 routes, four targets (138 yds, TD)
– Hassan Haskins: 31% snaps, five carries, seven routes, one target (23 yds)
“Hampton has one game with more yards than Vidal had today.”
So, moving forward, you obviously want Vidal. But everything regarding Vidal’s performance has to be taken with a bit of context, as the Miami Dolphins’ defense might be the worst, specifically against the run, in the NFL.
Upcoming schedule isn’t terrible – but I’d be looking to sell on Vidal if somebody is very aggressive on him. If not, just hold him.
He’s the guy until Omarion Hampton returns.
Post-game, Jim Harbaugh had this to say regarding Vidal (via the Athletic).
“For days, weeks, months, he’s been screaming, ‘Count on me,'” Harbaugh said. “And the way he played in this game, it was very loud.”
As for the receivers, Ladd McConkey had a monster game. 7-100-1 on nine targets. Monster game for Ladd, who definitely saw his boosted target share with Quentin Johnston out of the lineup.
Talked about this last week…how McConkey would need an injury to either Keenan Allen or QJ to replicate his rookie numbers. Bingo-bango.
Don’t know how long Johnston will be out – hamstring injuries can be tricky – so hold tight onto Ladd. And if you bought low a few weeks ago, you are in good shape.
Allen didn’t have quite the day McConkey did, but still saw seven targets. Solid fantasy WR2/3 while Johnston misses. He’s been a sell for me the last weeks, but I think the shine isn’t as high as it was earlier (one target in the first half). Still saw two more red-zone targets as Hebert loves to pepper him when the Bolts get close to scoring.
Because, funny enough, there still was another receiver that ate here…rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden. 7-68 on eight targets (3 in RZ).
He’s popped in a few other games this season – Week 4 posted a 47% target rate per route run – and the usage was very strong in Week 6. He drew the start but did lose a fumble.
75% snap rate and 69% route participation.
Again, a lot of these Chargers are going to see boosted levels of production with QJ out (crazy, right?). But among the rookies, Gadsden has been head and shoulders above the other rookie WRs. Add TE-eligibility to the mix and bang. Cooking with GAS.
Worth noting that Tre Harris also saw five targets (4-27). He also ran all the routes (85%) with QJ sidelined.
Great matchup for this passing attack versus Indianapolis in Week 7.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 8 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 9 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 11 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 12 | BYE |
| Week 13 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 14 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 15 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 16 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 17 | Houston Texans |
| Week 18 | at Denver Broncos |
Los Angeles Rams
Add Jordan Whittington & Jarquez Hunter
Tough day for injuries. The Rams lost both Puka Nacua and Blake Corum for a portion of the game…although both returned. Situation worth monitoring with the Rams’ Week 8 bye week.
Nacua is expected to miss the next game. Corum has been listed as day-to-day (same designation as Nacua).
Kyren Williams 100% snap share incoming. However, savvy managers should add rookie Jarquez Hunter just in case.
Tyler Higbee returned from injury and went 4-4-40 with a TD while leading the Rams in snaps played (66%).
Davante Adams had 10 targets, but only turned out 4-39 (also picked up a DPI with 3 RZ targets).
Adams has a chance to really explode with Nacua sidelined. Obviously, he and Matthew Stafford have been building chemistry on the fly, as Adams is 5th in points scored BELOW expectation. He and Stafford have not been connecting as much as they should be, considering Adams is second in XPPG. I don’t think Adams is washed…but be open to somebody else in the Rams (more to come), also eating here along with Kyren in the ground attack.
Adams leads the NFL in red-zone targets (13). He has caught two of them.
Expect Jordan Whittington (3-23 on four targets) to see an expanded role if Nacua is out. Note that Tutu Atwell also missed this game (although he is expected to return in Week 7).
Whittington played 92% of the snaps in Week 6.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Jacksonville Jaguars (London) |
| Week 8 | BYE |
| Week 9 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 10 | at the San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 11 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 13 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 14 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 15 | Detroit Lions |
| Week 16 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 17 | at Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 18 | Arizona Cardinals |
Miami Dolphins
Sell Darren Waller
All Darren Waller does is catch TDs. However, the targets changed drastically in this last game. 2-12-1 on just three targets. The Dolphins’ second tight end, Julian Hill, had more receptions than Waller (3).
This was after it was reported that Waller would play more snaps in Week 6. That was true as he ran a route on 75% of dropbacks and played 69% of the snaps.
Waller is great when healthy. But at Cleveland this week with a team that looks like it’s on the brink of a coach firing…I’m trying to get off the Waller ride while I can get something strong in return. I think he will be a serviceable fantasy TE until he gets hurt.
Malik Washington saw more low ADOT targets (specifically seeing two more in the red zone). Washington is 6th in points/game scored, BELOW expectation.
Funny enough, Washington saw a target on the play before two Dolphins TDs and a Miami FG. He is going to find the end zone soon enough.
Schedule:
| Week 7 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 8 | at Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 9 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 10 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 11 | Washington Commanders |
| Week 12 | BYE |
| Week 13 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 14 | at New York Jets |
| Week 15 | at Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 16 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 18 | at New England Patriots |
Minnesota Vikings
Sell T.J. Hockenson | Hold Jordan Mason
Jordan Addison sat out the first quarter in Week 5 after missing a team meeting. But he still made an impact in the game. He scored on one of his two red-zone targets.
Justin Jefferson continues to perform at a high level despite inconsistent QB play. 5th in the NFL in target share (29%). 5th in air yards share (45%). 10th in PPG. He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB. I think this kind of makes him a sneaky buy-low candidate with concerns about how his production will be when J.J. McCarthy returns. It’s certainly possible that it gets worse with the young QB back. However, there’s still a real upside case with JJ. Jefferson’s floor is so high that I think it might be worth the risk to see what his asking price is in your league.
The Browns were a tough matchup for Jordan Mason. Luckily, he scored and only fumbled once. Even so…Minnesota is coming off the bye this week. Then it’s the Eagles/Chargers/Lions. By the time the schedule eases up and the offensive line gets healthy, Aaron Jones might also return (eligible for Week 8 return). Put him on the block and see if you can get any decent returns.
But if you must hold, that’s okay. The Vikings will have C Michael Jurgens, LG Donovan Jackson, and RT Brian O’Neill back on the practice field this week in various capacities.
Massive upgrades to the OL. And the Eagles/Chargers matchups might not be as bad as once perceived.
Out of the bye week, Kevin O’Connell isn’t naming his starter at quarterback for Sunday’s game against the Eagles. Both J.J. McCarthy (ankle) and Carson Wentz (shoulder) will practice on Monday and throughout the week. “Want to see how this week plays out first.”
Schedule
| Week 7 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 8 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 9 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 10 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 11 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 12 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 13 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 14 | Washington Commanders |
| Week 15 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 16 | at New York Giants |
| Week 17 | Detroit Lions |
| Week 18 | Green Bay Packers |
New England Patriots
Buy Stefon Diggs | Add Kayshon Boutte | Hold TreyVeon Henderson
Nothing much to add from a backfield perspective. Still a two-man show that cannot get off the ground. The run-blocking for the Patriots is non-existent (6th-worst per PFF), and nobody is ripping off chunk plays.
That was TreyVeon Henderson’s calling card coming out, but it has hardly been the case this season.
His receiving usage has also been middling. Eventually, he will get things going, but the rookie has to ignite the spark first. Just keep him on the bench.
It’s not like Rhamondre Stevenson is running away with this job…but Henderson isn’t doing enough to outright take it.
And it’s not like Henderson seeing 11 touches isn’t enough. For an explosive playmaker…HE needs to do more.
After I was all in on Stefon Diggs…Kayshon Boutte came away with the big game. 5-92-2 on five targets.
Now that’s not to say Diggs was terrible – 3-28 on three targets – because his biggest play of 51 yards was taken off on a BS OPI call. Refs were BAD in this game.
Don’t worry about Diggs. In fact, he is a great BUY LOW after the two other NE WRs popped in the box score this week. After Week 6, Diggs is still PFF’s 6th-highest graded WR – and he’d be averaging over 3 yards per route run had the catch stood.
Also, before Boutte’s TD, there was another TD pass to DeMario Douglas.
Boutee is worth an add as he is a big-time playmaker who has flashed a pretty high weekly ceiling dating back to last season. And if Drake Maye is an MVP-level QB, then surely he can support multiple guys.
Boutte was targeted at an average depth of 16.8 air yards in Week 6 and has now averaged 15.9 air yards per target (4th-most in NFL, min. 20 targets) this season (next Gen Stats).
But don’t chase Douglas. Just 25% of the snaps he played – fewer than Mack Hollins.
Diggs and Boutte were essentially in routes run among the Pats WRs (21 vs 20).
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 8 | Cleveland Browns |
| Week 9 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 10 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 11 | New York Jets |
| Week 12 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 13 | New York Giants |
| Week 14 | BYE |
| Week 15 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 16 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 17 | at New York Jets |
| Week 18 | Miami Dolphins |
New Orleans Saints
Add Kendre Miller, Taysom Hill | Sell Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson
Alvin Kamara spearheaded the backfield with a 62% snap rate to Kendre Miller‘s 39%. It was a tough matchup, so it’s not too surprising that neither guy was super efficient rushing the ball.
Miller had another target wiped away with a flag, but Kamara dominated the targets out of the backfield (5 for 45).
Kamara has been adamant about not being traded…so he’s stuck on the Saints. Remains a sell.
This season, Kamara is PFF’s 10th-lowest graded RB. Miller is PFF’s 10th-highest graded RB.
I’d be adding Miller ahead of a juicy matchup versus the Bears. Very FLEX-worthy this week.
Juwan Johnson‘s snaps also declined as Foster Moreau and Jack Stoll played more TE snaps. RIP Juwan Johnson TE1 szn (Weeks 1-4).
Taysom Hill scored and played 12 snaps on offense. Broadcasters were talking about his red-zone role…which is going to be a thing every week. Most TEs won’t offer NEARLY the same TD odds as Hill…regardless of how else he is used. Kellen Moore said post-game how valuable Hill is in the red zone.
Again, just one carry for a TD here, but he played more snaps than in Week 6.
Chris Olave had another really impressive game, with a boatload of targets (38% target share), air yards (56%), etc. But alas, he failed to put together a strong statistical game with a TD score.
Through six games, Olave is 4th in XPPG. If he got improved QB play. #Kaboom.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 9 | at Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 10 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 11 | BYE |
| Week 12 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 13 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 14 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 15 | Carolina Panthers |
| Week 16 | New York Jets |
| Week 17 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 18 | at Atlanta Falcons |
New York Giants
Hold Cam Skattebo | Add Wan’Dale Robinson & Theo Johnson
No sugarcoating, my sell high on Cam Skattebo take from last week — I leaned too much into the upcoming matchups and not enough into the player (who I do like a lot).
Tyrone Tracy coming back didn’t make a difference (and I never thought it would make-or-break Skattebo).
71% snap share, 21 touches for 110 yards and 3 TDs. WOOF.
If you sold him, I pray you got a really good return. And technically, at DEN/at PHI will be tougher matchups than home against a Jalen Carter-less Eagles defense.
But I don’t want to make excuses. Skattebo looks like a rising star and should still produce in some capacity even in some tougher spots. Maybe we can buy low if he does indeed dud out the next two weeks.
The Giants lost starting center John Michael Schmitz to a concussion on Thursday. TBD on his status for Week 7.
Having him matters. Denver’s run defense blanked the Jets. They are one of the best defenses against mobile QBs.
There are also rumors that the Giants might be in the market for a WR. Chris Olave was mentioned as a possible target.
The WRs on Thursday night were led by Lil ‘Jordan Humphrey (obviously with eight targets) and Wan’Dale Robinson. Robinson should be the WR1 for the rest of the season after going 6-84-1 on seven targets.
Tight end Theo Johnson was quiet, albeit in a tough matchup. Still played 90% of the snaps.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 8 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 9 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 10 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 11 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 12 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 13 | at New England Patriots |
| Week 14 | BYE |
| Week 15 | Washington Commanders |
| Week 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 17 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 18 | Dallas Cowboys |
New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall | Add/Hold Mason Taylor
Worst-case scenario for Garrett Wilson managers. He puts up a dud in a tough CB matchup versus Patrick Surtain.
Then he also hurts his knee, putting his status in major question for Week 7. It was reported that he will miss the next few weeks with a hyper-extended knee.
The Jets’ passing game has been anemic WITH Wilson (-10 net pass yards versus Denver).
I can’t imagine how bad things could get without him.
Breece Hall better rest up, because I’d anticipate he gets LOADED with carries – just like in Week 6.
Hall tallied 22 carries for 59 yards, but was unsuccessful in popping off any big runs. This was a very much an outlier defensive performance. According to Next Gen Stats…
The Broncos defense held the Jets to zero explosive plays, the first time an offense has gone without an explosive play in a game since Week 11, 2021 (HOU vs. TEN).
The Jets’ -0.4 yards per pass play was the 2nd-fewest in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016, trailing only NYG vs. NYJ, Week 8, 2023). Breece Hall was held to a career-low -14 rushing yards before contact, ultimately gaining 59 yards on 22 carries.
Ergo, the Jets’ run game should rebound at home versus the Panthers. Carolina has been stifling the run the last two weeks (just 50 rushing yards allowed the last two games).
Defensive end Pat Jones has been back for Carolina the last two weeks, and he has seemingly given Carolina some help on the defensive line.
Hall should reprise another top-tier workload (74% snap rate), making him a buy-low.
As for what’s left of these WRs…I’d just got back to Mason Taylor. Mega bust in Week 6, but Carolina has been terrible versus tight ends. If he gets dropped…scoop him up.
Still ran a route on 86% of dropbacks – elite for a tight end.
And if you are truly dumpster diving….Josh Reynolds should play close to every single snap.
Rookie WR Arian Smith is a downfield speedster, so he is definitely the “prayer shot.”
Schedule
| Week 7 | Carolina Panthers |
| Week 8 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 9 | BYE |
| Week 10 | Cleveland Browns |
| Week 11 | at New England Patriots |
| Week 12 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 13 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 14 | Miami Dolphins |
| Week 15 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 16 | at New Orleans Saints |
| Week 17 | New England Patriots |
| Week 18 | at Buffalo Bills |
Philadelphia Eagles
Moves to Make: Sell Eagles WRs & Saquon Barkley
Put Saquon Barkley on the trade block. He hasn’t been the same guy as last season. Eagles OL has regressed due to some injuries. Barkley is PFF’s 6th-lowest graded RB.
The schedule has been tough, so things should have gotten better… starting with the NYG. But it wasn’t.
I’d entertain selling Barkley after he underwhelmed with 12 carries for 58 yards in a smash spot.
As for the Eagles WRs…it’s good that we are getting volume. Because the Eagles’ run game is struggling…we are seeing more volume for guys like Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown, etc.
DG: 9-110-1 on 11 targets. AJB: 6-80-0 on nine targets.
Those top two guys deliver more often than not, but DeVonta Smith seems like the one who gets left out. Now, if he catches that deep bomb last week, nobody is upset. So he’s a hold till he pops, then you flip him.
Smith is just WR43 in XPPG (WR42 in PPG) this season. And this is nothing out of the ordinary. His numbers drop dramatically when Goedert and AJB are healthy.
I would note that Smith should not be dumped for nothing. AJB has been heavily debated in trade rumors according to the Athletic’s Dianna Russini – and we know the ceiling Smith can offer if Brown were to actually get moved. Either way, I think both Eagles WRs have trade value – and I would explore those options. Whether it’s Smith or AJB. The Eagles inconsistent passing game creates a shaky floor for at least one of these three pass-catchers every week. These dud games are always going to be possible in the current way the Eagles offense is constructed. Once they boom, I think you have to flip.
AJ Brown is WR34 in XPPG this season. And he is scoring BELOW expectation. 7.6 PPG (46th) which is worse than Smith. Career-low 1.32 YPRR for AJB.
The Vikings are also allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs on the outside the this season (11.4).
Smith has an 81% catch rate this season (12th) despite a relatively high aDOT (10.8). Smith has been more efficient than Brown thus far this season (also playing a career-high in snaps from the slot).
CB Quinyon Mitchell also got hurt against the Giants. His status versus Minnesota is TBD.
Schedule:
| Week 7 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 8 | New York Giants |
| Week 9 | BYE |
| Week 10 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 11 | Detroit Lions |
| Week 12 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 13 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 14 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 15 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 16 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 17 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Week 18 | Washington Commanders |
Pittsburgh Steelers
Hold DK Metcalf
I was very curious about the Steelers’ backfield deployment out of the bye week.
Jaylen Warren was the lead back (53% snap share), but both Kenneth Gainwell (34%) and Kaleb Johnson (19%) chipped in.
The issue for Warren wasn’t the rushing (11 for 52 in a tough matchup), it was his lack of receiving—just two targets compared to Gainwell’s six.
Warren still had the red-zone usage, but the Gainwell receiving is going to hurt his bottom line. Gainwell ran more routes than Warren (42% to 36%).
And this was a 3-man RB rotation in the first half. Johnson didn’t just get garbage time.
He had three carries in the first half to Warren’s six and Gainwell’s three.
I’m still a believer in Johnson’s upside in this offense. So, I want him stashed. Mike Tomlin continues to sing his praises. Season-high in carries for KJ in Week 6. Not a massive post-bye rookie bump, but a positive nonetheless.
As for what to do with Warren…hold. Your sell-high window is AFTER they face the Bengals on Thursday night.
I listed DK Metcalf as a sell before the bye week. And another week in, the call looks like a miss. 4-96-1 on a team-high nine targets. Now he isn’t going to catch TDs every week…But I do want to highlight the usage change. More targets this week than any up to this point…and he was finally being used downfield (four deep targets, including his TD grab). 70% air yards share.
Although I want to keep tabs on this if/when Calvin Austin returns (not likely this week). In Weeks 1-4, Austin ranked 4th in the NFL in air yards share.
Metcalf is playing extremely well – PFF’s 6th-highest graded WR – so I’m shifting towards more of a hold stance. He’s already had his bye week and seems destined to be a fantasy WR2 at worst ROS even if his TD streak ends.
Mentioned this in my BP Primer this week regarding the Steelers’ tight ends. They are playing Darnell Washington more against 4-3 defenses (later confirmed in Mike Tomlin’s post-game press conference). It’s why he played 80% of the snaps over Jonnu Smith (69%) and Pat Freiermuth (36%).
The Bengals run a 4-3 defense under Al Golden, so expect the TE usage to favor Washington in Week 7.
So yeah…keep betting the unders on Freiermuth. And if you are hurting at tight end…Washington isn’t the worst TE option considering the elite matchup vs Cincy.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Cincinnati Bengals (TNF) |
| Week 8 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 9 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 10 | at Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 11 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 12 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 13 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 14 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 15 | Miami Dolphins |
| Week 16 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 17 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 18 | Baltimore Ravens |
San Francisco 49ers
Sell Kendrick Bourne & Christian McCaffery | Buy Ricky Pearsall
Christian McCaffery continues to be inefficient as a rusher – 3.2 YPC, 41% success rate – but he scored and ATE as a receiver.
Feel no different than I did last week.
CMC is on pace for 437 touches through 6 weeks. What could go wrong? McCaffery’s receiving usage has been off the charts…but eventually the 49ers will get most of their starting WRs and TEs back. Consider that CMC has been bad as a rusher…right now is the time to flip him for MAX ROI. He is PFF’s 7th-lowest graded RB this season, averaging 3.1 yards per carry with the NFL’s 8th-lowest success rate.
Tick tock on the sell-high window for CMC. But I get it if you just want to ride it out. I’m just saying that if you can get a really strong return (Jonathan Taylor, etc.) I’d be willing to part ways with CMC.
Kendrick Bourne did it AGAIN. 5-142 on nine targets. Mac Jones….you are a KING maker. But I very much feel this is a flash in the pan. Bourne is Jones’ guy, dating back to their New England days.
Use the Bourne-Jones connection to buy low on Ricky Pearsall. Brock Purdy will be back under center at some point. Jauan Jennings is also no long-term bet to stay healthy, given all the injuries he is playing through. His injuries seemed to hamper his production. Given he caught just one pass for 7 yards on three targets…
If Pearsall starts practicing this week, it’s possible he could return this week. Smash buy. PFF’s 15th-highest graded WR in four games played.
Tight end Jake Tonges has been a great fill-in, but George Kittle has a chance to be back for Week 7 (practicing this week).
More shootouts are coming for SF after they just placed LB Fred Warner on IR.
Brandon Aiyuk is also eyeing a Week 10 return.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 8 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 9 | at New York Giants |
| Week 10 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 11 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 12 | Carolina Panthers |
| Week 13 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 14 | BYE |
| Week 15 | Tennessee Titans |
| Week 16 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 17 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 18 | Seattle Seahawks |
Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet continue their dreaded 50/50 split. Neither scored, and as a result, we are sad fantasy managers. Both only drew one target.
– Zach Charbonnet: 60% snaps, 12 carries, 13 routes, one target (37 yds) – Kenneth Walker: 35% snaps, 10 carries, eight routes, one target (37 yds)
#Seahawks Week 6 RB Usage
– Zach Charbonnet: 61% snaps, 12 carries, 13 routes, 1 target (37 yds)
– Kenneth Walker: 33% snaps, 10 carries, 8 routes, 1 target (37 yds)Both scored 4.7 fantasy pts. In 5 games both played, Walker has scored more than Charbonnet once
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 12, 2025
Charbs had six carries in the red zone but didn’t score. Walker had two.
I get that the usage is frustrating. But Walker remains the best back in this backfield. PFF’s second-highest graded rusher this season. Buy low on the talent.
JSN continues to melt faces (8-162-1). A special year for him is unfolding.
Nobody else had more than three targets. AJ Barner had a long catch for 61 yards.
Schedule
| Week 7 | Houston Texans |
| Week 8 | BYE |
| Week 9 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 10 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 11 | at Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 12 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 13 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 14 | at Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 15 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 16 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 17 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 18 | at San Francisco 49ers |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy Bucs.
No WRs? No problem.
Baker Mayfield finds a way.
Emeka Egbuka suffered a hamstring injury, so his status is TBD. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving will miss another week.
The Buccaneers have a Week 9 bye week, so I think we might see some of these guys return in Week 10 for the stretch run.
Todd Bowles says that Emeka Egbuka is set to get an MRI tomorrow. He says he’d like to see Benjamin Morrison, Zyon McCollum and Mike Evans practice this week.
He says Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are likely not going to practice, and thus play, this week pic.twitter.com/LqBnjM1ptd
— River Wells (@riverhwells) October 13, 2025
Managers with a strong record should be looking to buy Buccaneers on the injury discount. Weeks 16-17: Panthers/Dolphins.
ROS? No. 1 schedule for WRs.
As for the short term, they are headed to a potential shootout in Detroit.
Cade Otton is reliable among TEs (26% target share), whereas the WRs have a more flat target share.
Three different non-Egbuka WRs saw 3-plus targets in Week 6.
Tez Johnson made a great downfield catch and played the most snaps. He’s small but really fast and a great separator. He would be my target off waivers, followed by veteran Sterling Shepard. Kameron Johnson might see the largest boosted playing time role as he saw three targets upon Egbuka’s exit.
Johnson ran a route on 84% of the dropbacks (same as Otton).
Obviously, if Evans plays…the Buccaneers’ ancillary WRs aren’t nearly as useful.
Rachaad White maintained RB1 duties – and he has been balling.
Second among all RBs in success rate (55.6%). Irving, before his injury, was at 28.2% – third-worst. When Bucky returns…I don’t think he will be nearly as much of a bell cow as he was before his injury, based on White’s performance.
Sean Tucker played a similar number of snaps and the same number of opportunities (6) as the week prior.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 8 | at New Orleans Saints |
| Week 9 | BYE |
| Week 10 | New England Patriots |
| Week 11 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Week 12 | at Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 14 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 15 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 16 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 17 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 18 | Carolina Panthers |
Tennessee Titans
Add Elic Ayomanor | Sell Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard‘s trending in the completely wrong direction. Just 10 carries for 34 yards against an underrated Raiders run defense. Tyjae Spears was more effective as a rusher- averaging 6.2 YPC with five carries for 31 yards. 60% success rate to 20% success rate
Spears also took over the pass-catching role…with four targets to Pollard’s two.
And due to the negative game script…Spears out-snapped Pollard (59% vs 43%). Pollard’s routes dipped to 25%.
Pollard has been a priority sell for the last few weeks, so hopefully, he is already off your roster.
Bottom-5 ROS schedule for RBs.
Calvin Ridley suffered a bad hamstring injury, so he will likely be out for a decent chunk of time. Ridley can be dropped in shallower leagues.
In his absence, Van Jefferson led the team with four catches for 75 yards (six targets). His last catch for 23 yards came with less than 90 seconds remaining. We know who Jefferson is. Don’t chase him. Rather have Chimere Dike (3 first-half targets). Dike is 4th in points/game scored BELOW expectation.
Add Elic Ayomanor. He wasn’t involved in this matchup but still drew six targets, while leading all WRs in snaps played (93%).
Chig Okonkwo went a perfect 6-for-6 for 46 yards, but he still split time with Gunnar Helm (2-15 on three targets).
Okonkwo is a desperation tight end addition. Half the battle with TE is just looking for TD upside…which is hardly the case in Tennessee.
The Titans also FINALLY fired their HC Brian Callahan. Mike McCoy will be the interim HC.
end of an era.
4-20-1 ATS (18%) https://t.co/hoXhlbo77r
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 13, 2025
Schedule
| Week 7 | New England Patriots |
| Week 8 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 9 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 10 | BYE |
| Week 11 | Houston Texans |
| Week 12 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 14 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 15 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 16 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 18 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
Washington Commanders
Buy Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Sell Deebo Samuel
Jacory Croskey-Merritt reprised his RB1 role (66% snap share) with 17 carries for 61 yards, although he did lose a second fumble for the second straight game. The team went right back to him, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about his job status.
Always be buying BILL.
No.1 schedule rest of season for RBs? The Washington Commanders.
Jeremy McNichols was second in RB carries with two. Chris Rodriguez played just one snap – although he was questionable to play at all.
Deebo Samuel was a mega bust – 4-15 on five targets – after entering the game with a bruised heel injury. This is what Samuel does. He starts the season great, gets banged up, and then flames out.
With Terry McLauring coming back soon…the time to sell Samuel WAS yesterday!
With TMC out, Chris Moore ran the second-most WR routes.
Per Next Gen Stats…Zach Ertz caught all six of his targets against the Bears for 43 yards and a touchdown.
Ertz caught at least one pass when aligned tight, in the slot, and out wide, catching his touchdown pass as the isolated receiver in the red zone. Ertz’s six catches are tied for his 2nd-most in a game since joining the Commanders, behind only his seven-catch performance against the Bears last season. Ertz’s 23.1% target rate ranks as his highest in a game this season.
Schedule
| Week 7 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 8 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 9 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 10 | Detroit Lions |
| Week 11 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 12 | BYE |
| Week 13 | Denver Broncos |
| Week 14 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 15 | at New York Giants |
| Week 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 18 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
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