Ja’Marr Chase had two catches for 26 yards in Week 1.
Chase, the nearly unanimous WR1 in this year’s fantasy drafts, produced 3.6 half-PPR fantasy points in his first game of the season.
As far as I’m aware, no one has dropped Ja’Marr Chase.
Which is good, because a lot of people either made or contemplated some truly dubious roster moves based on Week 1 results. That no one has dropped Chase yet proves sanity still prevails in the fantasy football realm, though the zombies are out there, shambling about in the wilderness, threatening to drop Isiah Pacheco because he only had five carries against the Chargers.
The fantasy football offseason is long — eight months, give or take. It’s so long that we tend to forget about the volatility of weekly results. Devoted fantasy gamers spend the offseason staring at season-long numbers, and season-long numbers lure us into believing that fantasy production is more predictable than it really is.
Maybe season-long production is somewhat predictable. But the road to those final numbers is winding and bumpy. A 1,000-yard receiver isn’t producing around 60 yards every week. He’s giving you a few big games where he surpasses 100 yards, and he’s laying a few eggs where he has 30 yards or fewer.
You know all of this, of course. But you’re still freaking out over some of your players’ Week 1 results, aren’t you?
Totally understandable. Freaking out about disappointing results is human nature.
But freaking out about bad surface stats can be counterproductive. Early in the season, pay less attention to the surface stats and more attention to usage stats.
Snap share, route participation, target share, average depth of target (aDOT), air yards, red-zone and green-zone carries — these are important harbingers of future production. If a player’s single-game usage numbers are encouraging but his surface stats are bad, don’t panic. If a player’s usage numbers are trending down or suddenly crash, a freakout might be justified.
It’s only one week. The worst you can be is 0-1 (well, 0-2, if you play in a league where you also go against the league median).
It’s a long season, friends. Practice patience.
Feel free to use these tiered half-PPR rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline fantasy football start sit options and some other interesting cases.
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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Lineup Advice
Quarterbacks Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Patrick Mahomes
- Drake Maye
- Baker Mayfield
- Bo Nix
- Jared Goff
- Dak Prescott
- Trevor Lawrence
- J.J. McCarthy
- Jordan Love
- C.J. Stroud
- Caleb Williams
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Bryce Young
- Mac Jones
- Aaron Rodgers
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Sam Darnold
- Daniel Jones
- Cam Ward
- Russell Wilson
- Spencer Rattler
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
Drake Maye‘s Week 1 performance was a mixed bag. He completed 30-of-46 passes for 287 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a loss to the Raiders. He also ran four times for 11 yards. Maye had some terrific throws and some poor decisions. New England’s second-year quarterback has a wide range of possible outcomes against a Miami defense that blitzed at the highest rate in the league in Week 1. If the Dolphins’ blitz doesn’t get home, Maye could rip the Dolphins apart. But if the Patriots’ refurbished offensive line can’t handle the heat, Maye could struggle. I’m hoping the blitzes cause Maye to run a little more proactively than he did last Sunday. I’m ranking Maye as a low-end QB1.
Dak Prescott‘s Week 1 numbers were pretty bad: 188 passing yards on 34 attempts, with zero touchdowns. He had one run for three yards. Prescott didn’t actually play poorly against a tough Eagles defense, and his numbers might have looked better had CeeDee Lamb not dropped a couple of catchable throws. But Prescott might not have a much easier matchup this week against the Giants, who can send the fearsome foursome of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter after opposing quarterbacks. Prescott checks in at QB15 this week.
I have C.J. Stroud ranked as a mid-range QB2, but he could be a sneaky Week 2 start. He’ll face Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers, who typically blitz heavily. Maybe Houston’s leaky offensive line will melt under the heat. But it should be noted that the last time Stroud faced a Todd Bowles defense — in Week 9 of his 2023 rookie season — he completed 30-of-42 passes for a career-high 470 yards and five touchdowns.
Running Backs Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- James Cook
- Travis Etienne
- Breece Hall
- Omarion Hampton
- Tony Pollard
- Chuba Hubbard
- Alvin Kamara
- David Montgomery
Tier 5
- Kenneth Walker III
- D’Andre Swift
- Javonte Williams
- Isiah Pacheco
- Jaylen Warren
- J.K. Dobbins
- TreVeyon Henderson
- Aaron Jones Sr.
- Zach Charbonnet
- Jordan Mason
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Tier 6
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.
- Dylan Sampson
- Austin Ekeler
- Nick Chubb
- Trey Benson
- RJ Harvey
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Jerome Ford
- Braelon Allen
- Kareem Hunt
Tier 7
- Miles Sanders
- Tyler Allgeier
- Ollie Gordon
- Rachaad White
- Najee Harris
- Rico Dowdle
- Ray Davis
- Justice Hill
- Isaiah Davis
- Bhayshul Tuten
- Cam Skattebo
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard tied for RB7 in half-PPR fantasy scoring last week, finishing with 16-57-0 rushing and 3-32-1 receiving on five targets. The passing game usage was good to see, but I don’t know how much receiving production we can count on from Hubbard going forward. There was only one game last season in which he had more than 17 receiving yards. Hubbard had a career-high 43 receptions last year but averaged a paltry 0.51 yards per route run. Despite the encouraging Week 1 performance, I’m regarding Hubbard as more of a mid-range RB2 than a true must-start this week against the Cardinals.
There’s panic in the air over Kenneth Walker’s Week 1 usage. Walker was out-snapped 30-21 by Zach Charbonnet, but I don’t think it means a Charbonnet backfield takeover is imminent. Walker dealt with a foot injury last season, and he missed some practice time last month with foot soreness. Charbonnet is one of the better backup running backs in the league, so the Seahawks have the luxury of being cautious with Walker’s workload. Investors should be encouraged that when Walker was on the field, he was busy. On the 21 snaps he played, he either carried the ball or ran a route on 19 of them. Walker had 10 carries and three receptions. I’m ranking Walker as a low-end RB2 against a Pittsburgh run defense that looked shaky last week versus Breece Hall and the Jets.
Speaking of panic, Isiah Pacheco investors are aghast that Pacheco got only five carries against the Chargers in Week 1. But the Chiefs trailed by 7-10 points for much of that game and had to abandon the run. Pacheco got the vast majority of the early-down snaps. Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith played on passing downs. And unfortunately, it was mostly Hunt in short-yardage situations, which is annoying if you’re rostering Pacheco.
I still think Pacheco should be regarded no worse than a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 this week. He looks like the hard-charging 2023 version of Pacheco after looking like a shell of himself upon his return from a broken leg late last season. And without wide receivers Rashee Rice and (presumably) Xavier Worthy this week, the Chiefs have to at least try to achieve some sort of healthy run-pass balance to avoid overreliance on a so-so group of pass-catchers and to avoid overexposing B Patrick Mahomes to a potent Eagles pass rush.
Although Javonte Williams had two touchdown runs against the Eagles in the NFL’s season opener, I’m only ranking him at RB24 and don’t consider him an unconditional Week 2 start. Williams averaged 3.6 yards per carry against an Eagles defense that was missing Jalen Carter after the big defensive tackle was ejected for spitting on Dak Prescott in the opening seconds of the game. Williams had no explosive runs in that game and didn’t force a single missed tackle.
With TreVeyon Henderson‘s speed and elusiveness, he doesn’t have to play a lot of snaps to put up good numbers. But it was still disappointing that Rhamondre Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 46-25 in Week 1. In light of Henderson’s 35% snap share, we should probably be thinking of him as a high-end RB3 or Felex option until his usage ticks upward.
Wide Receivers Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Justin Jefferson
- Puka Nacua
- Nico Collins
- Malik Nabers
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- A.J. Brown
- Drake London
- Ladd McConkey
- Tee Higgins
Tier 3
- Garrett Wilson
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Mike Evans
- Courtland Sutton
- DeVonta Smith
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Zay Flowers
- Davante Adams
- Terry McLaurin
- Emeka Egbuka
- Tyreek Hill
- DK Metcalf
Tier 4
- George Pickens
- Jameson Williams
- Ricky Pearsall
- Jakobi Meyers
- Marquise Brown
- DJ Moore
- Calvin Ridley
- Travis Hunter
Tier 5
- Jaylen Waddle
- Deebo Samuel Sr.
- Jerry Jeudy
- Chris Olave
- Keon Coleman
- Keenan Allen
- Rome Odunze
- Cedric Tillman
- Stefon Diggs
- Khalil Shakir
Tier 6
- Quentin Johnston
- Jayden Reed
- Romeo Doubs
- Darnell Mooney
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Matthew Golden
- Cooper Kupp
- Joshua Palmer
Tier 7
- Tyquan Thornton
- Rashid Shaheed
- Rashod Bateman
- Kayshon Boutte
- Calvin Austin III
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Jauan Jennings
- Adam Thielen
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- DeMario Douglas
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- Josh Downs
- Xavier Legette
- Elic Ayomanor
- Troy Franklin
- Dont’e Thornton Jr.
- Alec Pierce
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw only 19 passes against the Bills in Week 1, and 47% of them went in the direction of Zay Flowers, who finished with 7-143-1 (and also 2-8-0 rushing). Obviously, a 47% target share is a rarity. But Flowers was terrific against the Bills, getting easy separation and making yards after the catch. The low passing volume for the run-heavy Ravens is a concern — especially with the Ravens favored by almost two touchdowns this week against the Browns. But Flowers can do a lot of damage on just a few catches. He’s a must-start this week.
DeVonta Smith has fared well against the Chiefs during his career. In four meetings against Kansas City, including two Super Bowls, Smith has 24 catches for 390 yards and a touchdown. Smith has also historically seen an uptick in productivity in games TE Dallas Goedert missed, and Goedert will miss Week 2 with a knee injury. I’m ranking Smith WR18 this week.
Don’t quit on Tyreek Hill yet. Yes, Hill had only four catches for 40 yards last week in Indianapolis, and the Dolphins’ offense was a dumpster fire in a blowout loss to the Colts. But as my colleague Derek Brown noted in the Week 2 installment of The Primer, Hill had a 27.8% target share, a 48.2% air-yard share and a 30.8% first-read share in the first three quarters of that game before the Dolphins pulled their starters in the fourth quarter.
The problem was that Tua Tagovailoa played terribly. He isn’t a bad quarterback. He led the league in passing yardage a couple of years ago, after all. The Dolphins are back at home this week, and they’re playing the Patriots, who have been without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez (hamstring). Geno Smith and the Raiders torched the Pats for 362 passing yards last week.
My colleague Andrew Erickson refers to Ford Field as the Coors Field of the NFL — a venue that promotes offensive fireworks. We didn’t get any fireworks from the Detroit offense last week in Green Bay, as the Packers held the Lions to just 3.8 yards per play. But the Lions’ offense is in a get-right spot at home against the Bears this Sunday. Jameson Williams had four catches for 23 yards versus Green Bay. Expect greater involvement for Williams this week against a Bears defense that melted down late in a Monday night loss to the Vikings. The Bears could be getting cornerback Jaylon Johnson back from a groin injury, but Williams torched the Bears for 5-143-1 the last time he saw them in Week 16 of 2024.
Ricky Pearsall may get peppered with targets this week with 49ers George Kittle out with a hamstring injury and Jauan Jennings dealing with a shoulder injury. But with Brock Purdy out with a toe injury and Mac Jones taking over at quarterback, maybe the 49ers give 25 touches to Christian McCaffrey and 10-12 touches to Brian Robinson Jr. in an attempt to grind out a road win against a bad Saints team using a ball-control attack. Some people see this as a smash spot for Pearsall, but I’m conservatively ranking him at WR28.
With Xavier Worthy leaving the Chiefs’ opener with a shoulder injury early on, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown finished with 10-99-0 on 16 targets. Brown’s average depth of target in that game was only 6.3 yards, and that included a 49-yard completion on which the Chargers’ defense simply lost track of Brown. With Worthy unlikely to play and Rashee Rice suspended, Brown figures to be awash in targets again this week. But the dink-and-dunk usage could limit Brown’s yardage and ratchet up his injury risk. I don’t know how long Brown can survive if Patrick Mahomes keeps feeding him short throws and making Brown face tacklers who weigh 50-100 pounds more than he does.
Calvin Ridley had a brutal matchup against the Broncos last week. Denver has the best pass rush in the league and arguably the best cornerback in Patrick Surtain II, who was on Ridley for most of the game. Ridley had 4-27-0 on eight targets. If you started Ridley last week, you’re probably feeling shaken. But you should start him this week in a friendlier (though not easy) matchup against the Rams. The hope is that Ridley will run a good number of his routes against Emmanuel Forbes, a former first-round pick whom the Commanders released last year. Forbes actually held up well against Nico Collins and the other Houston receivers last week, but the Rams are a far better matchup for Ridley than the Broncos were.
In eight career games against the Patriots, Jaylen Waddle has 39 catches for 606 yards and five touchdowns. The last time Waddle faced New England was Week 12 of last season. It was easily Waddle’s best game of the year: 8-144-1.
Tight Ends Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Jonnu Smith
- Chig Okonkwo
- Dalton Schultz
- Pat Freiermuth
- Mason Taylor
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
- Noah Fant
- Noah Gray
- Cade Otton
Tier 6
- Colston Loveland
- Mike Gesicki
- Theo Johnson
- Tyler Conklin
- Cole Kmet
- Jake Tonges
- Tanner Conner
- Tyler Higbee
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
You’d think the Chiefs would have to get Travis Kelce more involved this week. Despite the absence of Rashee Rice and an early injury that knocked out Xavier Worthy — who was accidentally broadsided by Kelce while running a crossing route — Kelce drew only four targets and finished with 2-47-1. Kelce has a tough matchup against a Philadelphia defense that gave up the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season and held Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson to 5-23-0 in Week 1. But Kelce is still a must-start.
I mentioned Brenton Strange as a sneaky tight end start last week. He finished with 4-59-0 on four targets against a Carolina defense that struggled against tight ends last year. Strange has another appealing matchup this week against a Bengals defense that gave up 111 catches, 1,114 yards and 10 TDs to tight ends last season. Consider Strange a low-end TE1 this week.
As excited as I am about Harold Fannin Jr., we should acknowledge that his Week 1 success (7-63-0 on nine targets) was probably somewhat opponent-related. Fannin faced the Bengals, who, as noted above, were smacked around by tight ends in 2024. The good news is that Fannin was heavily involved in the Cleveland offense, playing 72.4% of the snaps and drawing a target on 31% of his routes.
I certainly don’t want to be the one to splash cold water on the Fannin enthusiasts. A tight end who led FBS in receptions (117) and receiving yards (1,555) in his final college season at Bowling Green has my attention. But there will probably be weeks when he takes a back seat to David Njoku, and I hope you didn’t pick up Fannin if you already have Njoku, because that lineup dilemma might have you tearing your hair out every week. I’m cautiously ranking Fannin as a mid-range TE2 versus the Ravens.
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