The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2018 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Total: 43.0
Line: DEN by 3.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: After losing Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson, and Luke Willson this offseason (they accounted for 20 of his 34 touchdown passes last year), the Seahawks didn’t exactly replace their production. They added 34-year-old Brandon Marshall and Jaron Brown to the wide receiver corps, though most didn’t expect Marshall to be on an NFL roster this year. They also brought in Brian Schottenheimer to run the offense, which is not a good thing. In his nine years of being an OC, the net yards per attempt for the passing-game has been outside the top-20 in 8-of-9 years, with the one “highlight” year finishing 16th. Wilson is going to have to carry this team on his shoulders but doing that against the Broncos may be too much to take with the pass-rush they bring with Von Miller and first-round pick Bradley Chubb on the edges. While I think Doug Baldwin is okay, it’s an added concern to Wilson’s projection. They’re also on the road as an underdog in what’s projected to be a low-scoring affair. It’s safe to say this won’t be Wilson’s best game of the year and he’s just teetering on the QB1 radar due to his rushing totals. You can find a better starter for your DFS squad.

Case Keenum: When most see the Seahawks on the calendar, they immediately think it’s going to be a tough game, though it’s a different team than most realize. Not only did they lose Richard Sherman, but Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas will not be there to back-up the secondary, and then Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett will not be part of the front-seven. They still have a strong linebacker corps, but star linebacker K.J. Wright had to have his knee scoped last week and will miss this game. With it being Keenum’s first game with the team, they may look to play this one conservatively and simply try to walk away with a win. But the truth may be that it’s easier to move the ball on Seattle through the air this year. It should come as no surprise that four of the five biggest games the Seahawks allowed to quarterbacks last year came from Week 10-on. While I’m not willing to go all-in on Keenum in his first start when there’s other solid starters on the waiver wire, but he’s not a bad start when you think about it. Consider him a middle-of-the-pack QB2, though the over/under says that you shouldn’t expect a tournament-winning performance.

RBs
Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and C.J. Prosise: It’s been a nightmare trying to figure out what to do with the Seahawks backfield, but it appears we have clarity for Week 1, as Carson is the starter. Many wondered how/why he’d get the start knowing they drafted a running back in the first-round, but Penny breaking a finger that caused him to miss a few weeks made the choice relatively easy. Still, Carson will be on a short leash all season. The Seahawks offensive line got better from a pass-blocking perspective with the addition of left tackle Duane Brown last year, but they’re still not a good run-blocking team. Despite the issues with the Broncos defense last year, they remained one of the better run-stuffing teams in football, allowing just 3.44 yards per carry and eight touchdowns (two came in Week 17) to running backs. There were just two running backs who topped 77 yards on the ground against them last year, and we haven’t seen much out of the receiving game from Carson. The Seahawks say that both Penny and Prosise will be mixed in, which tells me Carson may wind up in the 12-15 touch range. Against the Broncos, that won’t be enough unless he scores. Consider him an RB3 this week who has what I’d call extra motivation to keep his job, as most running backs don’t have as short of a leash that he does. Penny is just a desperation RB4 option, but one I’d prefer not to use until we see him lead the team in snaps. It’s hard enough to produce with starter snaps behind this offensive line. Prosise is the best receiver they have out of the backfield, but he’s fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. He’s still someone I’ll be paying attention to, as his skill-set could be used.

Royce Freeman, Devontae Booker, and Phillip Lindsay: After saying that Freeman would play in the fourth preseason game and that Booker would start Week 1, the Broncos coaching staff finally heard enough of the complaints and decided to hold Freeman out. Just a few days later, he was listed atop the depth chart as he should’ve been all along. Still, what this experience has told me is that Booker will still be more involved than you’d like him to be, though it shouldn’t last long. The Seahawks front-seven is the strength of the defense when healthy, but missing K.J. Wright at outside linebacker is a big blow. His backup might be fifth-round rookie Shaquem Griffin. The Broncos offensive line hope to have last year’s first-round pick Garrett Bolles take a step forward at left tackle this year, while they added RT Jared Veldheer this offseason, a lineman who helped propel David Johnson while in Arizona. It’s hard to gauge just how much the losses of Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas will have on this defense, but I’d imagine it’s felt quite a bit. So while it’s not a bad matchup, the timeshare is likely going to be ugly. Freeman is the starter and most talented, so he should fall into the low-end RB2 range, while Booker gets 8-10 touches, and rookie Lindsay gets 5-6 touches of his own. If waiting on someone like Mark Ingram to get back from suspension, Booker should be able to get you 30-50 yards, but he’s not exciting. If you want to use one in a tournament, it’s Freeman, but stay far away in cash lineups.

WRs
Doug Baldwin: After missing the entire preseason due to a knee injury, Baldwin is back for Week 1. They said he’d be back weeks ago, which tells me they knew exactly what was going on (likely an MCL sprain of some sort). If there was a procedure that was needed (Sony Michel), they would’ve done it with all the time they had. But here’s the thing – he’s not a great play in Week 1 regardless. He’ll be matched-up with the best slot cornerback in the game, Chris Harris Jr. Over the last four years, he’s allowed just nine touchdowns on 337 targets, or one every 37.4 targets. The catch rate of just 51 percent that he allowed last year was one of the best in the league, which is unheard of for a slot cornerback. I’m not going to sit Baldwin where I have him, but I’m most definitely tempering expectations to the high-end WR3 territory. Needless to say, I’m not using him in DFS this week.

Tyler Lockett: After hearing about how great Lockett looked this offseason, call me skeptical. He’s still yet to top 664 yards in any one season and isn’t what you’d call a big touchdown threat. His game-speed isn’t nearly as fast as some suggest, as he plays well below the average speed of wide receivers. Meanwhile, Paul Richardson played right around the average speed. To think that Lockett is a burner just isn’t true. To know that he played behind Jermaine Kearse and Richardson tells you what you need to know. Now, he is walking into more targets this season, though I don’t want you to believe it automatically means he’s going to be more efficient. The Broncos secondary isn’t as fearful without Aqib Talib, though Bradley Roby has played well opposite him. It seems as if Tramaine Brock will start opposite Roby, and that’s a huge upgrade for an opposing wide receiver. We don’t know how the Seahawks will deploy Lockett this year, but my guess is that he sees both of them an equal amount. He’s a WR4 in Week 1 who is more appealing than usual due to Baldwin’s tough matchup.

Jaron Brown: It’s not a certain thing that Brown starts for the Seahawks, but I’m assuming he does over Brandon Marshall, who was reportedly on the roster bubble. Brown played pretty well when thrust into a larger role last year, though his role didn’t last long. He totaled 311 yards and a touchdown during a six-week stretch from Week 2 through Week 7, so there’s ability there. His downturn in stats came around the time the Cardinals went to Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert, so the move to Russell Wilson should be massive, especially if Lockett can’t gain the separation most believe he can. He’s just a WR5 flier, but one who I believe is better than most think. If you’re looking for an off-the-wall tournament play, Brown isn’t the worst option.

Demaryius Thomas: Are we nearing the end of Thomas’ WR2 run in Denver? He’s finished as a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last three years without Peyton Manning, though most have pinned his lack of elite status on the quarterbacks he played with. While Case Keenum is an improvement, so is the surrounding cast. The Broncos went out and drafted Courtland Sutton in the second-round and word around the team is that he’s ready to start in 3WR sets from the get-go. He’s a big-bodied wide receiver (6-foot-3, 216 pounds) who will play on the perimeter alongside Thomas, meaning he may take some of the large target share Thomas has had over the last few years. The Seahawks starting cornerbacks will be Shaquill Griffin and Donte Johnson in Week 1. While Griffin is rock-solid, the Seahawks don’t play shadow coverage. But he’s still the cornerback that Thomas will see most of, as Thomas plays about 55 percent of his snaps against the RCB, which is where Griffin was stationed last year. I’d still expect Thomas to get at least 6-8 targets, making him a WR3-type play in Week 1, though I think you can do better in DFS lineups.

Emmanuel Sanders: After seeing Courtland Sutton, the Broncos felt the need to involve him in the offense, meaning they’re moving Sanders into the slot in 3WR sets, which is massive for his expected production. If you missed it in my article this offseason, slot targets were worth 1.79 PPR points last year, while perimeter targets were worth 1.62 PPR points. When looking for an edge, this is the stuff that helps find it. Sanders will see Justin Coleman the majority of time, who’s not bad, but also not elite. Since coming into the league in 2015, he’s allowed just a 57.1 percent catch-rate, but has also been surrounding by a bunch of elite options. Sanders appeared to be a favorite of Case Keenum in the preseason, which I’m expecting to roll into the start of the season. It’s not a matchup I’d run from as a Sanders owner, making him a decent WR3 play, especially in PPR formats. He’s not a bad DFS option considering his reasonable salary, but he’s not one of my favorites, either.

Courtland Sutton: Once he started lighting-up training camp, the Broncos said they needed to get Sutton involved in the offense immediately. That meant moving Sanders into the slot for 3WR sets, as Sutton isn’t a guy who should be playing there just yet. He’s a big-bodied wide receiver (6-foot-3, 216 pounds) who made a living at SMU bullying smaller cornerbacks. In this matchup, he’ll see Dontae Johnson the majority of time, a cornerback who played for the 49ers last year, but didn’t do it very well. He allowed a 109.1 QB Rating when targeted, which included five touchdowns in his coverage. He really struggled down the field, so if the Broncos want to take their shots to the rookie, this is the matchup to do so. Sutton isn’t someone I’d want to play in season-long leagues just yet, but he makes for a very interesting tournament play.

TEs
Nick Vannett: It’s time, Vannett truthers. If you’ve followed my work throughout the offseason, you know that I’ve been saying to add him in dynasty formats. He was drafted by the team as a third-round pick back in 2016, but played behind both Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson, who are now gone. The Seahawks signed Ed Dickson, but he remains off the active roster. Vannett has looked good in his opportunities, though it’s a small sample size. He’s built well at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, and knowing that the Seahawks are lacking pass-catchers, it shouldn’t surprise you if Vannett breaks out. On top of that, the Broncos allowed 10 TE1 performances last year, which ranked third to only the Giants and Browns. It’s likely due to the fact that they allowed touchdowns to them in 9-of-16 games, but that’s where we expect Vannett to shine (Graham and Willson combined for 14 touchdowns last year). He’s most definitely on the low-end TE1 streaming radar when we consider how tough Baldwin’s matchup is. Vannett may not be the safest cash-game option, but he’s most definitely in-play for tournaments.

Jeff Heuerman: I’m not sure you want to even contemplate starting any of the Broncos tight ends, as it appears that Heuerman will start, but that they’re still trying to get Jake Butt on the field. Heuerman has just 35 career targets but has turned them into a large 283 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the Broncos have been extremely hesitant to give him a large role despite lacking talent at the position the last two years. That’s why I’m hesitant to trust him now. If he goes out and is essentially an every-down player, we’ll strongly consider him in the future, but there’s plenty more options who have a sure role going into Week 1, like the tight end on the other side of the field.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Total: 47.5
Line: GB by 7.5

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: It’s a whole new year for the Bears No. 2 overall pick and I’m sure nobody wants to wash the taste out of their mouth more than Trubisky. After playing in an offense with Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, and Dion Sims as his primary pass-catchers, Trubisky now gets Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton. But even more importantly, Matt Nagy is his play-caller and head coach, and as we saw with Jared Goff in 2017, things can change quickly when you have a good play-caller. The Packers have been among the league’s worst pass defenses over the last two years, allowing the eighth-most points to quarterbacks in 2017 and had allowed the 10th-most points in 2016. They have now replaced Morgan Burnett with Kentrell Brice, a former undrafted free agent, and Davon House with Tramon Williams. Needless to say, their secondary is going to look different, though it may not be for the better just yet (though they have two young cornerbacks they drafted waiting in the wings). With little offensive tape to go off, the Bears have a leg-up on the Packers in their first game under the Nagy regime. While I won’t say Trubisky is a sure thing, his situation looks very good on Sunday night. Consider him a semi high-floor QB2 who could wind-up with QB1 numbers. He’s not someone you’d likely want to use in cash lineups, but he’s got tournament appeal with low ownership.

Aaron Rodgers: He’s back into the fantasy scene, though Rodgers will be missing his go-to target in Jordy Nelson for the first time since 2015 when Nelson tore his ACL. That also happened to be the year Rodgers posted the worst QB Rating of his career, though 92.7 is better than almost every quarterback who’s ever played the game. It’s a different look now with Davante Adams as his No. 1 target and Jimmy Graham as the primary red zone threat, though we’re positive he’ll make it work – he always does. While the Bears offense has a leg-up on the Packers with little game tape, Rodgers and the offense may luck out as well, as it’s no sure thing that newly-acquired Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith are every-down players after having minimal time to work with the defense. The Bears front-seven is now the strength of the team, while the secondary, particularly on the perimeter can be attacked to some extent. When playing the same cornerbacks in last year’s meeting (which was in Green Bay), Rodgers threw four touchdowns on just 26 pass attempts. He’s a QB1 this week and one who may do better than some think against the Bears defense.

RBs
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: After hearing all the coach-speak about how much of a three-down back Howard is, it’s time to put your money where your mouth is, Mr. Nagy. I’m kidding, he knows that Howard isn’t a great pass-catcher, it was purely coach-speak. However, Howard is a great one-two down back who’ll be playing behind a healthy offensive line, something that didn’t happen all that often last year. Against the Packers, Howard was held in check last year totaling 107 rushing yards in the two games combined, though the Packers didn’t have any concern making him the primary focus. That won’t be the case going forward, and knowing they’re down two starting linebackers, it’s an area the Bears will likely attack. There were six running backs who were able to rack up 84 or more rushing yards against them last year, so it’s not as if they’re an elite run-stopping unit. While Blake Martinez appears to be an up-and-coming linebacker, relying on Antonio Morrison who they just acquired a week ago could be an issue. Howard should be looked at as a high-floor RB2 who should have a good shot to score against a weakened front-seven. Cohen is the wildcard, as he’s been compared to Tyreek Hill in Nagy’s offense, though I don’t believe that. He’s going to be especially useful in games the Bears fall behind, so when you see the point-spread at 7.5, oddsmakers say this is a week to use Cohen as an RB3/flex option who is obviously better in PPR formats. We’ll know more about his role next week.

Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery: After playing alongside Brett Hundley for a majority of his rookie season, you don’t want to limit your expectations based on what you saw out of the vanilla offense with him under center. With Aaron Rodgers, Williams is going to see much lighter defensive fronts and more scoring opportunities. The additions of Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack are most definitely going to make an impact, but they may not be full-time players in Week 1 after having limited time with the team. With Aaron Jones out on suspension, it eliminates any questions about Williams’ workload, which should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 touches. Add in the fact that he’s a big favorite in a home game and you’re looking at a locked-in RB2 with upside. The Bears defense didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher until Week 17 last year, but there were still 10 rushing touchdowns allowed. As for Montgomery, he’s someone like Tarik Cohen where we don’t know what his exact role will be in the offense, though I’m expected a Rex Burkhead-style role where he’ll get 5-8 carries and 4-6 targets per game. If that’s the case, he can be used as a RB4/flex option in PPR formats with upside in high-scoring games. Knowing he used to play receiver (pretty well, at that), he may be asked to step-up if Randall Cobb is less than 100 percent. I’d consider Montgomery an excellent tournament play and someone who’ll likely deliver RB3 numbers this week.

WRs
Allen Robinson: It’ll be his first game since the ACL injury that he suffered Week 1 last season, though he’s had a good recovery with very little practice time missed. It’s not a bad matchup to return to, either, as he’ll often match-up with Kevin King, the Packers second-round pick from last year’s draft who found himself on the I.R. due to a shoulder injury in December. Prior to his injury, King had been okay as a rookie, though not great. Over his final seven games before going to the I.R., he allowed 25-of-39 targets to be caught in his coverage for 373 yards and two touchdowns for a QB Rating of well over 100. It’s hard to say that Robinson is more than a high-end WR3 this week, though, just because of the uncertainty of target distribution in the Bears offense. Because of that, he’s not in play for cash-games, but he’s a great tournament option knowing his talent level.

Anthony Miller: You’ve likely heard all the hype on Miller by now, whether it be by me or someone else who covers sports. Anyone who’s been to Bears camp will talk about Miller like he’s going to be a star. It all starts here, as the Packers will stick rookie Jaire Alexander on him when in the slot. While Alexander is a ballhawk, he gets twisted in coverage quite often (did in college, anyway), so he’ll likely struggle with a route-runner like Miller. The Packers are also missing two of their top three inside linebackers, so that could be an area of the field the Bears choose to attack if they fall into zone coverage. You never want to place expectations too high in a players first game, but it’s the whole offense’s first game, so it’s somewhat of a level playing field. Miller should be looked at as a WR4/5-type option who could surprise.

Taylor Gabriel: The landing spot for Gabriel may have been more appealing when he signed earlier in the offseason, but there’s now a lot of competition for targets. It’s likely back to the way it was in Atlanta for him, as he saw anywhere from 3-6 targets per game. Because of his big-play ability, he’ll always be on the bye week filler list, but he’s not someone you want to count on from week-to-week, as he may be fifth in line for targets. He’s going to match-up with Tramon Williams the majority of time, and he’s someone who defended the deep go-routes pretty well last year, allowing just two receptions on nine targets with no touchdowns. Gabriel is nothing more than a one-percent tournament option who can hit pay-dirt anywhere on the field.

Davante Adams: Welcome to elite status, Mr. Adams. Would you like Aaron Rodgers to throw it to your left or right side? All jokes aside, this is the year Adams should jump into the elite conversation. Some are concerned about top-tier cornerbacks on his schedule, and while we’ll address those at that time, this is not one of those weeks. The Bears don’t have Kyle Fuller run shadow coverage very often, though this may be one of the times they try to do it. Not that it will matter, because while Fuller is an above-average cornerback, he’s far from a shutdown cornerback. He also just played his best year of football in a contract year, which could be something/could be nothing. In the end, he’d allowed five touchdowns in his coverage each of his first two seasons, but just two last year. One of them came against the Packers, when he allowed seven catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Safe to say, play Adams as your WR1 and expect results. He’s safe to use in all DFS lineups as well, as he’s the only surefire thing that Rodgers has.

Randall Cobb: Back in 2015 when Jordy Nelson was hurt, the Packers tried to thrust Cobb into a No. 1 wide receiver and it backfired, as he was not capable of such role. Now that Davante Adams is that guy, Cobb can go back to being the player they once relied upon for solid production. The issue is that Cobb needed ankle surgery this offseason and the after-effects lingered into the preseason forcing him to miss practices/games. Now that he and Adams are the pieces that Rodgers is most familiar with, it’s likely they’re the ones who see the majority of targets. Against the Bears, Cobb will match-up with Bryce Callahan, who has been better than most give credit for the last three years. In that time, he’s allowed a 58.5 percent catch rate and just two touchdowns on 123 targets in coverage. In the two meetings against the Bears last year, Cobb totaled 96 yards and a touchdown, though only one of the games was with Rodgers under center. I’m more concerned about Cobb’s ankle than anything, so consider him a risky WR3 who can pay off if healthy, though he’s the only one who can answer that. Knowing that he’s caught 12 touchdowns in a Rodgers-led offense before, you don’t want to write him off in tournaments.

Geronimo Allison: After much speculation, it’s Allison who’ll start opposite Davante Adams in Week 1. While Allison is not an elite talent or anything, he’s capable of producing with Aaron Rodgers under center. He’s proved that during his first two seasons, totaling 45 targets, 26 receptions, 381 yards, and two touchdowns in the 15 games he’s played with Rodgers. He’s going to see Prince Amukamara the majority of time in coverage this week, which isn’t a great matchup by any means, as Amukamara is the definition of a solid cornerback, while Allison is quarterback-dependent. There will be better weeks to use Allison who I’d view as a WR5 this week, but one who can score at any time with Rodgers under center, making him a tournament-only contrarian play to Adams.

TEs
Trey Burton: After playing backup to Zach Ertz, the Bears and Matt Nagy felt Burton was ready for a starting role in their tight end-friendly offense. It was a small sample size, but when Nagy was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs from Week 13-16 last year, they targeted the tight ends 36.8 percent of the time. Keep in mind the NFL average is just 20.3 percent. Burton is going to play the “move” TE role in Nagy’s offense, the same role that Travis Kelce and Ertz play in Reid’s and Pederson’s offense. The Packers were a defense who didn’t allow many fantasy points to tight ends last year, as there were just three tight ends to hit double-digit PPR games. But here’s the catch – there were just six tight ends who totaled more than four targets against them all season. With Morgan Burnett gone, they’ll rely on Kentrell Brice, a formerly undrafted free agent, to cover Burton out of the slot. That could cause issues for the Packers, who are also missing two linebackers, and were forced to trade for one the other week. If you drafted Burton, play him in Week 1. I’d consider him a safe option in cash lineups who also comes with tournament upside.

Jimmy Graham: If you would’ve said that Graham would end up with Aaron Rodgers a few years back, you would’ve said to pull out the record books. Unfortunately, Graham isn’t the same player anymore, though it may not matter with the lack of familiarity in the Packers wide receiver corps. He’s still a red zone threat, as evidenced by his 10 touchdowns last season, but he hasn’t topped 72 yards since Week 9 of 2016 and he reached just 60 yards twice last year… with Russell Wilson. Can we stop pretending that Wilson isn’t also good at throwing touchdowns? Similar to the Packers, the Bears weren’t a defense to target with fantasy tight ends, as they allowed just four tight ends to score 10 or more PPR points, and they all needed to score a touchdown. That’s exactly how I view Graham in this matchup, as he’s touchdown or bust. With an over/under of 47.5 points, there’s a good chance we see Graham take the Lambeau leap, making him a TE1. He’s not a cash-game option for me, but he’s still very much in-play for tournaments.

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Total: 45.0
Line:  DET by 6.5

QBs
Sam Darnold: Who would’ve thought that Darnold would be starting with both Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater on the roster a month ago? With Bridgewater gone, Darnold is the guy they’re going to, while on the road against the Lions. It’s not the worst situation, as they’re not elite in any area of the field. Still, starting on the road inside of a dome on primetime television for your first NFL start isn’t the easiest thing to do. The Lions were somewhat of a bend-but-don’t-break defense last year, allowing seven quarterbacks to hit the 16.0 fantasy point mark, though just three of them make it past 18.7 points. It’s a new defense that’s been installed by defensive-minded head coach Matt Patricia where players have said he’ll change the plan every week to take away the best players on the offense. The question is, who are those players on the Jets? Expect a conservative gameplan for the rookie, though it shouldn’t shock you to see the Lions jump out to an early lead. Darnold is a low-end QB2 in his first start and not one you need to use in any format.

Matthew Stafford: The Jets have felt like they’re on the right track with their defense, though some would question that after they allowed multiple touchdown passes in 11-of-16 games last year. They went out and snagged Trumaine Johnson in free agency, which will help for sure, but the Lions do have a variety of different weapons to throw to. There was just one quarterback to throw for 300 yards against them last year (Alex Smith), so Stafford will likely need to find the end zone multiple times to live up to his QB1 reputation. With all three starting wide receivers healthy and a bevy of pass-catching backs, I think Stafford will be just fine, though I cannot see him blow the roof off this defense. He’s a low-end QB1 who should provide a solid floor.

RBs
Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell: With the rookie under center, expect them to take it easy on him out of the gate, running the ball to ease him into game action. By all accounts, it should be Powell as the starter with Crowell mixed in. The Lions were mediocre overall against the run last year, but if you look a bit closer, they struggled without Haloti Ngata in the lineup. With him, they allowed just 3.33 yards per carry, compared to 4.28 yards per carry without him. If you don’t know, Ngata is no longer with the Lions. They replaced him with Sylvester Williams from the Titans, though we don’t know if he’ll have the same impact. The reason to like Powell in this matchup is that he’s a better three-down option for when the Jets fall behind. He’s also looked fantastic during the preseason, giving him the leg-up going into the season. It’s not an ideal situation, but I’d bank on Powell for 12-14 touches while Crowell is mixed in with 8-12 of them. Powell has been much more efficient and has experience behind this line, while Crowell had been playing behind the Browns studly line. Consider Powell an RB3 despite the non-sexy look, while Crowell is just a low-end RB4 who would need to score to be fantasy relevant.

Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, LeGarrette Blount, and Ameer Abdullah: This is a backfield to avoid if possible, as there’s no one who actually knows what’s going on here. The Lions started Abdullah in the preseason, though some thought it was due to them shopping him in a potential trade. Now they’ve listed both Blount and Riddick as starters. The odd part of all this is that Johnson is the one who should be getting the most touches at year’s end, so it’s a shame they’re going to trot Blount out there as the starter. It’s going to hold the offense back, as he makes things a lot more predictable, while Johnson is a true three-down back. The Jets lost Muhammad Wilkerson on the defensive line, though they tried to replace him with Henry Anderson, who they acquired in a trade with the Colts. While that’s a downgrade, they upgraded their linebacker corps when they signed Avery Williamson, who was a vital part of the Titans success against the run the last few years. Blount isn’t on my radar as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB4/5 option who has a very low floor, while Riddick is losing part of his role to No. 3 receiver Kenny Golladay, and Abdullah is just a guy who’s likely hoping to get traded. It’s going to be Johnson in the long-run, but you cannot play him yet with such a crowded RB room.

WRs
Robby Anderson: Many will talk about Anderson’s potential based on last year, but we have no idea how he’s going to gel with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. The veteran Josh McCown was willing to take shots down the field, though Darnold may be a bit skittish in his first NFL start to do that. The good news is that Anderson was creating separation despite being the No. 1 option last year, as his 3.4 yards of separation at target was among the best in the NFL. The issue is that he’ll likely be shadowed by Darius Slay, the Lions top cornerback who went to the Pro Bowl last year. Despite covering most No. 1 wide receivers, Slay allowed just a 56.6 percent catch rate in his coverage last year. There’s no other cornerback on their roster who is even comparable, which is why Darnold may look the other way. Anderson’s talent could carry him through, but he’s a risky WR3 in this game, meaning you keep him away from cash-game lineups.

Quincy Enunwa: After missing the 2017 season with a neck issue, Enunwa is back in the lineup in a much less crowded wide receiver room. Not the bodies, but the name-recognition targets in the locker room, as he played in-between Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in 2016. Most forgot that he outproduced Marshall on significantly less targets. He figures to play out of the slot and will be matched up with either Jamal Agnew or Teez Tabor, who are both second-year players who played very limited snaps in 2017. They combined to allow 17 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown on 24 targets, so there wasn’t anything to indicate they’ll be game-changers. It’s often that the slot receivers gain most separation, so Enunwa could be Darnold’s favorite target early in his career and the cornerback matchup is a good one. Enunwa is someone who you may want to keep on your waiver-wire speed dial. I wouldn’t want to play him as anything more than a WR5 in his first game back, but he’s more talented than most remember.

Terrelle Pryor: With Jermaine Kearse out of the lineup, Pryor is set to start for the Jets in Week 1, though we’ve been down this road before, right? It does help that Robby Anderson is likely to see shadow coverage from Darius Slay, which would put Pryor against Nevin Lawson, who allowed a 104.8 QB Rating in coverage last year. Lawson is also just 5-foot-9, giving Pryor a massive height advantage, as he’s 6-foot-4. Because of that, they may not have Slay shadow, but he surely won’t shadow Pryor. He’s not the worst punt-play in a primetime tournament slate, but you don’t need to play him in redraft, even in a really good matchup, as he’s just not shown us any reason to get excited.

Marvin Jones: Just one year after finishing as the No. 7 wide receiver in fantasy, Jones found himself in the WR3 range. Was it right? Well, here are his splits with and without Kenny Golladay in the lineup last year:

It’s obviously not the largest sample size, but the presence of Golladay clearly affected his target share. The Lions have already said Golladay will start in 2WR sets alongside Jones, so he gets no break. The Jets added Trumaine Johnson in free agency, who will now play opposite Morris Claiborne. They don’t figure to use any shadow situation, so he’ll see a mix of the two, who are both above-average talents. Stafford and Jones connected on four go-routes for touchdowns last year, while Claiborne allowed just 2-of-11 go-routes be completed, though one was for a touchdown. There’s more risk than most would initially think when playing the Jets, but Jones is likely still the favorite to score on the Lions, making him a low-end WR2 with upside.

Golden Tate: While most try to decipher which of Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay will score the touchdowns this week, don’t overlook Tate who has the best matchup of the trio. He’ll match-up against Buster Skrine in the slot, who has continually been one to target in matchups. He’s going into his eighth NFL season, so it’s not as-if he’s going to suddenly get much better. He’s allowed a 66 percent catch rate in coverage over the last three years, while allowing 12 touchdowns in that span. Tate is obviously one of my favorite cash-game plays on the primetime slate and should be considered a rock-solid WR2 who could get into WR1 territory with a touchdown.

Kenny Golladay: It’s really odd that a player with 11 games and three touchdowns under his belt has affected the stock of proven talents like Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, but here we are. Golladay will play opposite Jones in 2WR sets, while Tate comes in for 3WR sets, though it doesn’t matter much because the Lions are among the league-leaders in 3WR sets. Golladay will be tested in this matchup, too, as both Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson are solid NFL cornerbacks, so he doesn’t get the No. 2 cornerback discount he usually does with Jones taking the No. 1 corner. It’s hard to imagine three wide receivers producing in the same game, especially when you consider the Jets allowed more than two passing touchdowns just twice last year, and that was before the arrival of Johnson. Golladay is just a touchdown-dependent WR5 this week.

TEs
Jordan Leggett: Do you know how many targets the Jets tight ends have seen over the last three years? 150 of them. To give you an idea as to how small that is, there were four teams who topped that number in 2017 alone. Leggett is a second-year player who was drafted last year, but is playing his first season due to an injury that had him on I.R. last year. You don’t want to start what is essentially a rookie tight end with a rookie quarterback on primetime television. The Lions defense was one to allow pretty big games to tight ends last year, but this isn’t the week to get cute. There’s much better dart-throws out there.

Luke Willson: We haven’t heard much about Willson in the new offense, but he’s most definitely the starter for Matthew Stafford, which is never a bad thing. He’s also been a good run-blocker throughout his career, so he should be a full-time player for the Lions, something that Eric Ebron struggled with. Some will dismiss Willson, but even a player who they were about to release (Ebron) got 47 targets over the final seven games of the season, so the tight end is a vital one to the offense. There were three games last year where the Jets allowed 20-plus PPR points to tight ends, so they’re also far from a shutdown unit. Knowing the strength of their cornerbacks on the perimeter, I expect the middle of the field to be very attractive to Stafford, which could result in targets for Willson. He’s not a sexy play, but he’s in the TE2 conversation this week.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders

Total: 49.5
Line: LAR by 4.0

QBs
Jared Goff: After what was a very eventful offseason for the Rams, they get to show off their new toys, though most of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Goff wasn’t left unattended to, as they gave him Brandin Cooks to replace Sammy Watkins and then added some depth on the offensive line. The Raiders are lacking what I’d call “above replacement-level talent” at nearly every position. They’re essentially trying to build a fantasy team out of a bunch of 7th through 10th round picks. Make sense? They traded away the one pick who cost them a first-round pick, though they didn’t get anything in return for this year. Even with Khalil Mack, T.J. Carrie, and Navorro Bowman last year, the Raiders allowed three passing touchdowns on five separate occasions, including 300 or more yards to each of those quarterbacks. The over/under of 49.5 points is one of the highest of the week, which is another bonus to liking Goff in Week 1. The only thing to dislike is if Todd Gurley steals all the points. Goff is a low-end QB1 with upside for more in this matchup.

Derek Carr: I’m not sure why the Raiders are just four-point underdogs in this game, though oddsmakers often know more than we do. If they have the score that close AND have the game with a 49.5-point over/under, they’re expecting the Raiders offense to somewhat hang with the Rams. A lot of excuses have been made for Carr’s performance last year, but truth be told, he was inconsistent before then. The overall numbers have looked okay, but he’s been a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback the last few years. The Rams have added Ndamukong Suh to the defensive line and then added both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib to the secondary. Adding those pieces along with LaMarcus Joyner and Aaron Donald, and you have what is essentially a Pro Bowl defense. It’s not as if the Rams were a defense to really attack with quarterbacks last year, either, as there were just three quarterbacks who were able to top 18 fantasy points against them. The new offense installed in Oakland may surprise everyone, but it’s just too hard to see it overcoming the talent the Rams have. Consider Carr a back-end QB2 in fantasy this week.

RBs
Todd Gurley: Nobody wants to bet on Gurley repeating as the RB1, but he’s still the most likely when you consider the changes around the Rams team. Seeing the high over/under is nice, but looking at the entirely-new Raiders linebacking corps is even nicer. The Raiders went out and acquired Tahir Whitehead, Derrick Johnson, and Emmanuel Lander in free agency, though they actually downgraded from last year at each position. Again, it’s a different coaching staff, but it’s hard to see them looking any better than the team that allowed 11 top-12 performances to running backs last year, including a 151-yard rushing outburst to LeSean McCoy. You’re playing Gurley everywhere possible, including DFS cash-game lineups.

Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin: Most didn’t talk about it, but the Khalil Mack trade had a negative effect on the run-game for the Raiders. If you’re allowing more points, you’re running the ball less – that’s how this works. When you see those dumb stats on the screen “when Player X hits 20 carries, his team is 20-0,” you should immediately turn off that broadcast. The reason he’s able to hit 20 carries is because his defense has allowed him to do that. They’d be better off listing a stat that says “The team is 20-0 when the defense allows less than 7 points.” Anyway, end of my rant. The Rams front-three is ridiculous with Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, and Aaron Donald, but their linebackers do have some question marks. With the strength of the Raiders team being their offensive line, I’d expect them to try and slow down the pass-rush with their run-game. Lynch looked extremely good in the preseason and likely in better shape than he was all of last year. Because of the high over/under, I’m betting Lynch will find the end zone in this game, even if he can’t get to 15-plus carries like we hope. Consider him a low-end RB2 who is likely better than that, but you never want to “rely” on a touchdown for all your production. Martin is said to have a role in the offense, but it’s not going to be as a passing-down specialist. This tells me that he’s going to mix-in with Lynch from time-to-time, though he’s the direct handcuff more than anything. Keep him out of fantasy lineups until we find a reason to put him in.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: Some are comparing the Cooks situation to that of Sammy Watkins‘ situation last year, though there’s a massive difference. Watkins was traded to the team literally weeks before the season started, while Cooks had the entire offseason to spend with Jared Goff, which he was doing before he was even traded to the Rams. He’s going to be involved much more than Watkins was and has proven that he can be a top-12 receiver in fantasy, something Watkins hasn’t been able to do despite his talent. Cooks will match-up with second-year cornerback Gareon Conley the majority of the time, though he’s going to see everyone at times. Conley played just 92 snaps as a rookie after dealing with injuries to start the year and was only in coverage on five pass attempts that resulted in four catches for 35 yards. It’s a very small sample size to trust someone like that against a veteran like Cooks. Look for Cooks to start the year with a bang and produce WR2 numbers. It’s risky to use a player like him in cash, but his price is well within the range of where I’d feel comfortable.

Cooper Kupp: Many will point to the fact that Kupp led the Rams in red zone targets as a way to say he’ll continue to produce the way he did in 2017, but looking at it a bit closer, just two of his 23 red zone targets came inside the five-yard-line. There were multiple receivers on the team who had more than him in that range, so it has to do with the way Sean McVay opens up his offense, allowing for Kupp to work underneath with less traffic. Whatever the case, the Raiders are going to stick 33-year-old Leon Hall on him and hope for the best. Hall used to be a player in the league, but over the last four years he’s trailed off, allowing a 75 percent completion rate in his coverage. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was also signed to the Raiders roster, but according to their depth chart, Hall is starting over him. I’d say Rodgers-Cromartie starting would downgrade Kupp’s potential. If Hall starts, the young Kupp should be able to work him over in coverage and wind up with a WR3/4-type game, even if he doesn’t score.

Robert Woods: The addition of Brandin Cooks with a full offseason likely has the biggest effect on Woods’ potential from a target share perspective. You don’t want to take significant targets away from Todd Gurley and Cooper Kupp plays an entirely different position than them. On top of him losing targets, he has the toughest matchup of all the receivers, as he’ll see Rashaan Melvin in coverage, the standout cornerback from the Colts last year. When targeted, quarterbacks had just a 56.9 rating and that was over a span of 53 targets (not a small sample size). Not to say that Woods can’t make the most out of some of his opportunities, but this isn’t a week to be particularly excited about him as anything more than a WR4 option.

Amari Cooper: We’ve heard Jon Gruden talk about how they’re going to use Cooper the way the Packers used to use Sterling Sharpe back in the day, but now it’s time to back it up. If you don’t know who Sharpe is, he totaled at least 90 receptions and 1,100 yards in 4-of-6 seasons for the Packers from 1989-1994. The issue is that the NFL has changed and you need to move players around a lot more if you want them to succeed in mismatches. With them saying that Seth Roberts is starting for them in the slot, it’s an issue because he cannot play the perimeter, which gives them no flexibility with Cooper. I’m still not entirely sure that Gruden is trolling us with the whole Roberts thing, though he’s probably not. Cooper will match-up with Marcus Peters the majority of the night if he stays on the left side of the formation, who just happens to be guy covering Cooper last year when he went off for 210 yards and two touchdowns last year. With how much the Raiders are expected to throw, Cooper belongs in the low-end WR2 conversation and should be a fun tournament play.

Jordy Nelson: I mean, if we didn’t see enough of Nelson towards the end of last season where he completely fell off the map without Aaron Rodgers, I’m not sure Derek Carr/Jon Gruden is going to revive him. On top of that, he’s going to match-up with Aqib Talib in coverage this week, who also happens to be a veteran presence, though he hasn’t experienced the dip that Nelson has. If the Raiders were able to get Nelson into the slot, it would make more sense to see him as the slot possession receiver (that Larry Fitzgerald plays) in the offense, though they don’t seem to have the personnel to make it happen. Nelson is going to struggle to gain separation, and therefore struggle to produce fantasy points. He’s just a WR4/5-option who’ll likely see more targets than he should at this point in his career.

TEs
Gerald Everett/Tyler Higbee: Would it shock you if Sean McVay completely re-did his offense this offseason and included the tight end into the gameplan more often? I wouldn’t. I mean, they drafted Everett with a second-round pick just last year with McVay in charge of the roster (you know what I mean). The Raiders linebackers are very suspect and their safety position is far from a sure thing, as they didn’t even know who was starting there until a week ago. In a room full of stars at wide receiver, don’t forget about Everett, who might just be one of the sneakiest tight end tournament plays of the week. The risk is that Higbee is still listed as the starter, though Everett was the one they hand-picked for a role. You likely don’t need to risk one of them in your season-long league, but we need to pay attention to the snap counts this week.

Jared Cook: I’m one who continually says “follow the targets” at tight end, though I never feel great about doing it with Cook. Despite seeing five or more targets in 12-of-16 games last year, Cook finished with 46 yards or less in 11-of-16 games. That’s not good. He also scored just two touchdowns, showing his inability to use his body to box out defenders, as tight ends are supposed to do. This wasn’t a one-year thing, either, as Cook has scored just 19 touchdowns his entire nine-year career. No, that’s not a typo. The Rams have John Johnson coming down from strong safety to take care of Cook, while the linebackers will also play their part. It wasn’t a great matchup for tight ends last year, as there were just three tight ends who eclipsed 58 yards against them all season. We all know that Cook doesn’t score touchdowns, so why should you be betting on him to finish as anything more than a boring low-end TE2?

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44.5
Line: PHI by 1.5

QBs
Matt Ryan: It’s a rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional Playoff game between the two teams, though there are differences all over the place. In that game, Ryan completed 22-of-36 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown, which was lower volume than was expected, but the Eagles controlled the ball for over 32 minutes in that game. Heading into 2018, Ryan now has an additional weapon on the other side of Julio Jones, as first-round pick Calvin Ridley was the most pro-ready wide receiver in the draft. The Eagles were essentially a middle-of-the-pack defense against fantasy quarterbacks last year, allowing six QB1 performances and 10 top-18 finishes. There were just two games the entire season where they held the opposing quarterback touchdown-less, with one coming against Mitch Trubisky and the Bears B-squad under vanilla John Fox. I’m not sure the Eagles have the secondary to hang with Jones, Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu, as they’ll have first-year starter Sidney Jones covering the slot. The Falcons offensive line should also be able to hold up well against a stout Eagles front-seven, though being on the road doesn’t help matters. Consider Ryan a high-end QB2 who is likely to throw for at least 250 yards and a touchdown. Given the game is primetime in Philadelphia after a Super Bowl win, it’s unlikely that Ryan presents enough upside to get it done in full-slate DFS tournaments.

Nick Foles: After looking brutal throughout the preseason, Foles is slated to start against the Falcons while the Eagles take it easy with Carson Wentz. Many remember Foles for his Joe Flacco-type playoff run, but the three games prior to the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, he totaled just 448 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. One of those games was against the Falcons when he completed 23-of-30 attempts for 246 yards with no touchdowns. Truth is, there’s likely a middle ground for Foles, though he appears to be a very streaky quarterback. The Falcons defense did lose Dontari Poe and Adrian Clayborn this offseason, though they have a young nucleus and added Isaiah Oliver to their stable of cornerbacks. The fact that Foles will be without Alshon Jeffery hurts, so it’s tough to see him being fantasy-worthy outside of 2QB leagues this week. There’s likely no tournament appeal, either, as the Falcons allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns last year, and Foles offers nothing with his legs.

RBs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: This turned into more of a timeshare than most realized last year, as Freeman totaled more than 12 carries just two times after Week 4, and one of those games came when Coleman was out of the lineup against the Bucs. In the playoff game that was in Philadelphia, each back got 10 carries, though Coleman was the much more efficient one totaling 79 yards, while Freeman was only able to muster up seven yards. If you were left drafting Freeman as your RB1, you’re likely to be disappointed this week. There were just four times in all of 2017 where the Eagles allowed an RB1 performance, which ranked as the fifth-best in the NFL. It’s likely because they allowed just five rushing touchdowns all year, and four of them came in two games (Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt each scored two). If Freeman’s going to live up to his cost, it’ll be in the passing-game, where the Eagles allowed just as many receiving touchdowns (5) to running backs as they did rushing touchdowns. In fact, Freeman totaled five receptions for 26 yards and a touchdown through the air against them in January. Still, he’s just an RB2 who needs to score in order to live up to his cost. Not that it makes a difference, but his last two season-openers have netted just 57 yards on 23 carries, though he did score one touchdown. Meanwhile, Coleman is just a low-end RB3 who needs to break a big play to be starter-worthy. If you’re left choosing between the two for DFS purposes, I’d take the discount on Coleman.

Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, Corey Clement: Even before you factor in Sproles’ age and Ajayi’s “lower body” injury, this backfield was a mess to predict. Fun fact about Doug Pederson’s running backs over the last two years: There’s been just one running back who has played more than 43 snaps in one game. Sproles has done it four times, but that’s it. Here’s a list of running backs who average more snaps than that (and keep in mind that’s the max under Pederson): Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, and Leonard Fournette. There’s a reason they’re in a tier of their own, while Ajayi is going to be a volatile fantasy option. There were just four games where a running back totaled more than 15 PPR points against the Falcons, and the list has a clear trend: Ty Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Christian McCaffrey, and Jerick McKinnon. Each of those are excellent pass-catchers and fit the mold of Sproles more than Ajayi. The Falcons have allowed the most receptions to running backs three years running. With Sproles out of the lineup in the playoff game, Ajayi totaled 54 yards on 15 carries and another 44 yards on three receptions, though he didn’t score. The Falcons allowed just five rushing touchdowns in the regular season last year, though the loss of defensive tackle Dontari Poe could loom large. The Eagles haven’t played Sproles in the preseason, but Pederson has said that his role will be extensive on both offense and special teams. Still, in his first game back, temper expectations to nothing more than a last-ditch flex option in PPR formats. Not knowing anything about Ajayi’s injury is worrisome, making him a dicey low-end RB2, even with a potentially limited Sproles. Clement is nothing more than a 5-7 touch per game running back at this point who maxed out at 28 snaps, and that was with Sproles out of the lineup. He would become a fantasy option if Sproles were to miss time/not return to form.

WRs
Julio Jones: Does the redemption season begin with a big Week 1 performance? While seeing a mixture of Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby in last year’s playoff game, he totaled nine receptions for 101 yards on a whopping 16 targets. It could have been even bigger had he come down with that touchdown on the final play of the game. The question becomes, which Mills do we see in 2018? He was one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL in 2016, but bounced back and played pretty well in 2017. Jones will see a mixture of all three cornerbacks, as he’s moved around the formation as much as any wide receiver in the league. If Steve Sarkisian has learned anything this offseason, it’s that they should match Jones up with Sidney Jones in the slot as much as possible, as he’s a first-year starter. There was just one team who allowed more WR1 performances than the Eagles last year and losing Patrick Robinson doesn’t make them better. Jones is playable in both cash and tournament lineups this week, and should be played as a WR1 in season-long.

Mohamed Sanu: If Steve Sarkisian doesn’t move Julio Jones into the slot to match-up with first-year starter Sidney Jones, it’ll be Sanu who benefits the most. Since coming to the Falcons, Sanu has played in the slot more than half the time and Calvin Ridley shouldn’t drastically alter that. Sanu had a 3/50/0 line against the Eagles in the playoffs, but remember that was with Patrick Robinson covering him the majority of time, and he’s now in New Orleans. Sanu is a sneaky WR4 this week and he’s someone you should stick in a tournament lineup or two while everyone else plays Jones or Ridley.

Calvin Ridley: It’s his first NFL game so you don’t want to set the expectations too high, but Ridley is a pro-ready wide receiver who’ll often see second-tier cornerbacks due to Julio Jones‘ presence on the other side of the field. With that being said, the Eagles don’t play any shadow cornerbacks in coverage, so it’s not a factor in this game. If he’s taking the old Taylor Gabriel role, he should see a lot of Jalen Mills at RWR. The reason to like Ridley for a big play or two is because Mills is one of the slower cornerbacks in the league who ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Ridley is a big play waiting to happen and could make for a great tournament play in DFS, though you should likely avoid in cash. He’s a boom-or-bust WR5 in season-long leagues but presents more upside than most in his range.

Nelson Agholor: Many will say that Agholor becomes the No. 1 option in the Eagles passing-game with Alshon Jeffery out, but we don’t know how Doug Pederson will deploy the wide receivers without his alpha-dog. Agholor played 86 percent of his snaps out of the slot, so it makes little sense to move him to the perimeter. Mike Wallace and Mack Hollins/Shelton Gibson should occupy those spots, but it could lead to a slightly bigger target share. With Foles last year, Agholor saw a much higher target share, as he saw nine or more targets on four separate occasions, something that didn’t happen with Wentz all season. He also happens to have the best matchup on the field, as he’ll match-up with Brian Poole in the slot, while Wallace gets Desmond Trufant. The fact that he didn’t post big numbers in the last game against the Falcons shouldn’t shock you, as he saw just three targets in a low passing-volume game. I’d feel confident starting Agholor as a WR3 in this matchup. He’s part of a one-game DFS slate on Thursday night, so feel free to use him in both cash and tournament lineups.

Mike Wallace: He’s going to be asked to play a much bigger role than initially anticipated, but it’s hard to love Wallace in his first game with his new team. He’s going to match-up with Desmond Trufant for much of the game, who is the Falcons top cornerback. He’s not a shutdown cornerback or anything, as he allowed six touchdowns in his coverage last year, but he’s an above-average player while Wallace is now 32 years old and clearly out of his prime. With Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup and no clear-cut No. 3 option at wide receiver, Wallace could see five-plus targets in this game, making him a WR4 with minimal upside in a semi-tough matchup. It also doesn’t help that Foles has looked out-of-sync throughout the preseason.

Shelton Gibson: It was unclear who the Eagles will trot out as the No. 3 receiver with Alshon Jeffery out, but after hearing Mack Hollins being announced as out, it’s Gibson’s job. He had a really strong preseason with Hollins out, totaling nine catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Whatever the case, it’s a risky proposition to start him, as he’ll see a mixture of both Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant in coverage, two above-average cornerbacks. Knowing he’s just 5-foot-11 and will play on the perimeter, it’s difficult to bet on him for a touchdown, especially with the way Foles has been throwing the ball lately. Gibson is simply a boom-or-bust deep threat this week, though when playing in a one-game tournament, maybe that’s what you want.

TEs
Austin Hooper: After struggling to do much in his second-year, the Falcons decided they needed to add another pass-catcher in the first-round of the draft. Hooper is still the starting tight end, but he’s unlikely to return to even the 65 targets he saw last year. In fact, he saw just one target in the game against the Eagles in the playoffs, while backup tight end Levine Toilolo saw two of them. Hooper is an athlete, but that doesn’t always translate to success, especially now that he’s crunched for targets. There were just two tight ends who posted more than 11.6 PPR points against the Eagles last year and they were Travis Kelce and Jordan Reed, players much different than Hooper. He’s not a fantasy option outside of those who are looking to be extremely contrarian, though I would look elsewhere.

Zach Ertz: It seems like a dream scenario for Ertz owners, as he’ll see a larger target share with Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup, right? You should know that he totaled just three catches for 32 yards in the last meeting against the Falcons, and it was par for the course when you consider the Falcons allowed just four tight ends to score more than 10 PPR points against them last year. Three of those four tight ends had to score in order to get there, too, making it somewhat worrisome. In fact, the Falcons allowed just one tight end to hit 60 yards against them last year, and it was to Charles Clay near the start of the season in Week 4. Still, it’s hard to find the targets that Ertz will get in this game, even in a tough matchup. He’s still a top-six play at the position, though he’s going to need to score in order to help you win a tournament.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.