We are right at Memorial Day weekend and this is where your focus as a fantasy owner needs to shift. No longer can you write off your team’s slow start to just bad luck, your poor pitching numbers to some unlucky bounces, or your poor offense to the cold weather. At this point, you should have a good idea what your team actually is.
You should also know what your team is not. Chances are, you have some holes to fill, or, at the very least, your team could use a shot in the arm. So, if you’re looking to make a trade, below is our handy trade chart, updated each week, to help you evaluate if any deal is fair.
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The Injury Movers
Jacob deGrom had a bit of a rough first inning after his return from his elbow injury, but followed that up with an utterly dominant performance against the Diamondbacks, striking out 13 over seven innings, and then another gem against the Marlins on Wednesday night. This is the best version of deGrom that we’ve seen in his career – his 34.3% strikeout percentage ranks fourth in the league and his 1.54 ERA ranks second. He immediately vaults right back up to the range of the elite starters.
Dee Gordon surprised fantasy owners when he was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Tuesday with a fractured “great toe.” Out of curiosity, when did the “great toe” replace the “big toe?” I do not like this change, and I do not support it. Anyway, we don’t have a timetable at this point (though there are rumors that Gordon won’t need much more than the minimum stay), but for a guy who relies on his legs, feet, and toes so much, a fracture to any of those areas is cause for alarm. Gordon should retain firm value, but the uncertainty drops him a bit.
Other minor injury movers include Nelson Cruz (so many nicks and bruises), Carlos Martinez (slower than expected recovery), Khris Davis (minor groin strain), Elvis Andrus (return getting closer by the day), Madison Bumgarner (ditto), and Raisel Iglesias (biceps strain). But oddly enough, this is a slow week for injury developments.
The Performance Movers
There’s no way I expect James Paxton to come close to the 214 2/3 innings pitched for which he is currently on pace. But that’s the only reason he’s not valued as a truly elite stud right now. After a rough start, Paxton has everything working, and even if you took away his no-hitter, his numbers over his last four starts would be 28 innings pitched, 27 base-runners, seven earned runs, and 29 strikeouts. Just stay healthy, James.
We could go back further, but just to keep it simple, entering Wednesday’s game, Didi Gregorius is 8-for-64 in the month of May with two RBI (Note: he homered on Wednesday, but given the environment in Texas, it really doesn’t count. It was like hitting on the moon!). That’s a troubling .125 batting average. Now, the good news at least is that Gregorius is not striking out very much (just nine entering Wednesday), but still. What once looked like a true breakout season now looks like . . . well, a 108-36-115-11 pace is still awesome, but a little less awesome than it looked at the end of April.
It’s a small sample size, of course, but Justin Turner has a hard contact rate of 44.4% since his return from the disabled list. That’s hopefully a sign that his wrist injury hasn’t sapped his power and he’ll return to being his old self soon.
Some hitters making some moves up this week include Matt Carpenter, Brandon Belt, and Scooter Gennett. Carpenter is still striking out way too much, but his hard hit rate is an incredible 61% in May! He was due for some natural regression, and it is here. Belt could finally be knocking down the door on his long-awaited breakout, as his huge gain in hard hit rate (48.3%, compared to 35.8% career) and his average launch angle (23.9 degrees, highest in MLB), means that not even AT&T Park can hold him. And once Gennett learned that his shoulder injury wasn’t serious, he took off like a firecracker. He’s rapidly proving that last year was no fluke, and his overall numbers look eerily similar for the last two years. Another week or two longer in his hot streak should mean a bigger rise.
Finally, let’s briefly touch on some pitchers. David Price looks like a completely different pitcher since he received a diagnosis and treatment on his carpal tunnel syndrome. Oddly enough, I did not notice a similar improvement in my fantasy writing when I had my diagnosis and treatment. Weird. And Jack Flaherty is here to stay, as will be his buddy Alex Reyes when he gets the call shortly. Some phantom injury will hit a Cardinals starter, not to worry. And Corey Knebel is back and ready to roll, so he inches closer toward being valued as a top closer.
Until next week!
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
