Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC-15.5, O/U 42
• Rams vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Matthew Stafford out, the Rams’ passing rate projection is up in the air, but I expect them to move slowly still (27th in neutral pace).
• The Chiefs are a beautiful offense from top to bottom, ranking seventh in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate. Even once they build a lead, they will keep throwing. Kansas City is ninth in positive game script passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sean McVay says "you'll see on Sunday" whether QB Bryce Perkins starts.
However, he also confirms that Perkins has gotten the No. 1 reps this week. John Wolford has been limited this week (neck).

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) November 25, 2022

Bryce Perkins: Perkins has been taking first-team reps all week, while John Wolford has been limited (neck). It doesn’t really matter who is starting for the Rams this week. Matthew Stafford is a superior talent to anyone else on this depth chart, and he’s been a broken QB2 this season. Perkins or Wolford would be nothing more than a low-end QB2 as a desperate start in Superflex. Since Week 6, Kansas City has been giving to quarterbacks ranking 25th in passing yards per game, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 30th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes remains otherworldly. He’s second in PFF passing grade, 12th in big-time throw rate, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and third in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks) as the QB1 in fantasy. Since Week 6, the Rams have been 19th in passing yards per game and 19th in EPA per dropback. Los Angeles is 31st in pressure rate, which should give Mahomes all the time he needs to wind up and go deep. If he does, the Rams are crushed, as they are 11th in deep completion rate and 29th in DVOA against deep passing. Mahomes is seventh in deep ball completion rate.

Running Backs

Week 11

Cam Akers: Last week, Akers played the early down grinder role seeing 14 carries, matching his season-high 61 rushing yards, and playing 39% of the snaps. Akers has shown some life over the last two weeks with 3.07 and 3.67 yards after contact per attempt marks, but his season-long numbers are still dreadful. Akers ranks 52nd in yards after contact per attempt, and he hasn’t recorded a breakaway run this season. Kansas City is a defense that can be run on. Since Week 6, they are fifth in yards per carry (5.0), 20th in EPA per rush, and 24th in rushing success rate allowed. Akers is a low-ceiling RB3/4.

Kyren Williams: If choosing a back from this backfield, it should be Williams. Last week he played 55% of the snaps with eight touches and 44 total yards while operating as the passing down back. His 3.63 yards after contact per attempt is encouraging, but take it with a grain of salt, as it’s only with an eight carry sample size. Kansas City is 27th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards. Williams is a viable PPR flex/RB4.

Week 11

Isiah Pacheco: Over the last two weeks, Pacheco has averaged 48% of the snaps with 15.5 rushing attempts and 94.5 rushing yards. The issue so far is he hasn’t scored a touchdown, as McKinnon is seeing more red zone usage, and he has absolutely zero passing game role. Pacheco has been effective with his early down work, ranking 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 26th in breakaway rate (minimum 25 carries). The Rams continue to bottle up running backs ranking fourth in rushing yards per game, sixth in EPA per rush, and third in explosive run rate allowed since Week 6. Pacheco is a touchdown-dependent RB3/4.

Jerick McKinnon: Although McKinnon’s targets dried up after back-to-back games with eight targets, he retains the passing back role. He’s also the team’s trusted red zone back. McKinnon has a 9.0% target share (26th) and ranks 26th in yards per route run. McKinnon is a low-end flex against a team that’s allowed the tenth-highest yards per reception and 14th-most receptions to running backs. The loss of Clyde Edwards-Helaire could slightly bump up the volume for both of these backs as it’s now a two person backfield.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson: Last week, Robinson secured a touchdown to finish as the WR18 for the week. Robinson still hasn’t logged a game of at least 70 receiving yards all season. He has a 15.2% target share and ranks fourth among wide receivers in red zone targets (only three touchdowns). Robinson is on his last leg, ranking 109th in yards after the catch and 87th in yards per route run. Robinson is a WR5 that will run about 72% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (61.5% catch rate, 77.4 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (68.2% catch rate, 130.7 passer rating). Robinson is nursing an ankle injury which has led to limited practices all week and a questionable tag.

Van Jefferson: Last week, Jefferson saw a 91% route run rate declaring himself a full-time player in the offense. Since Week 9, he has had a 14.4% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 1.13 yards per route run. Jefferson has only one red zone look over his last three games. Jefferson is a deep league flex who will run about half his routes against McDuffie and Williams.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster practiced in full all week and carries no injury designation into this game. Smith-Schuster finished as a WR1 (WR7, WR8, WR4) in his last three full games tied to Patrick Mahomes. In those contests, he handled a 19.1% target share (8.3 targets per game) with a 20.1% air yard share. He averaged 108.3 receiving yards with 2.54 yards per route run. Smith Schuster is a WR2 that will run about 61% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (70.9% catch rate, 116.5 passer rating) and Troy Hill (71.4% catch rate, 102.5 passer rating).

Kadarius Toney: Toney has been ruled out. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is the WR68 in fantasy points per game. He’s only managed a 12.5% target share (75th) and a 14.7% target per route run rate (90th). He has three weeks this season as a WR2 or better in fantasy and six weeks outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers. Valdes-Scantling is a WR5 that will run about 64% of his routes against Ramsey and Hill.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee is the TE10 in fantasy. He’s a TE1 weekly based on projected volume. He has a 21.3% target share (7.3 targets per game) and 11.4% air yard share (20th). Higbee is 14th in red zone targets, and 17th in yards per route run among tight ends. Kansas City is 17th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the tenth-highest yards per reception. 

Travis Kelce: Kelce doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy with a 25.0% target share (third), 27.6% target per route run rate (third), and 21.9% air yard share (third). Kelce is sixth in deep targets and first in red zone looks. Kelce is first in yards per route run. Los Angeles is 23rd in DVOA against tight ends allowing the eighth-highest yards per reception.

TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -8.5, O/U 43.5
• Saints vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Another slow and rushing-filled game is incoming. New Orleans and San Francisco are 23rd and 30th in neutral pace and ranked 13th and 14th in neutral rushing rates.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton: Dalton is a QB2 in a tough matchup. Dalton is the QB20 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings. He’s played well for the most part, ranking 13th in fantasy points per dropback, ninth in true completion rate, and ninth in yards per attempt. Since Week 6, excluding their shellacking from Patrick Mahomes, the 49ers are eighth in passing yards per game, tenth in EPA per drop back, and ninth in explosive pass rate. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is a borderline QB1. He’s been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in four of his last six games. Garoppolo has been playing point guard well for the 49ers, ranking 11th in fantasy points per dropback, fourth in yards per attempt, and 13th in money throws. Since Week 6, despite their myriad of injuries, the Saints have kept quarterbacks in check. They have held passers to the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, seventh-lowest explosive pass rate, and ninth-lowest yards per attempt. A plus for Garoppolo is that the Saints rank 29th in pressure rate, so he should have plenty of time to get the ball to his playmakers this week.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is averaging 18.6 touches and 99.6 total yards per game as the RB11 in fantasy. After scoring three touchdowns in Week 8, he’s returned to the touchdown dessert with zero six-point dances since. Kamara might not be at his peak anymore, but he’s still playing well. He ranks 14th in yards per touch, sixth in yards per route run, and 28th in evaded tackles. Kamara has commanded a 20.3% target share (third) while ranking third in receptions and receiving yards among running backs. Kamara is an RB1 in a brutal matchup. Since Week 6, San Francisco has been sixth in rushing success rate, fifth in rushing yards per game, and eighth in explosive run rate allowed. They have given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game in that period.

Christian McCaffrey: Since becoming a full-time starter in the 49ers’ offense, McCaffrey has averaged 19.3 touches and 110.7 with RB2, RB11, and RB11 fantasy outings. Since Week 7 (minimum 15 rushing attempts), McCaffrey is 46th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in breakaway rate, and 44th in PFF’s elusive rating. These aren’t exactly pretty numbers. While those metrics aren’t peachy, McCaffrey’s 26.5% target share (since Week 8) and 2.37 yards per route run are still elite marks. The Saints’ defense has faltered this year. Since Week 6, they are 21st in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 22nd in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey is a no-doubt RB1.

Elijah Mitchell: Since his return, Mitchell has averaged 11 rushing attempts and 63 rushing yards. Outside of his insane seven red zone carries in Week 10, he’s only seen one rushing attempt inside the 20-yard line. Mitchell looks explosive, though, ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in PFF’s elusive rating (since Week 7, minimum 15 carries). Mitchell is an RB4.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave got back on track last week with 102 receiving yards as the WR7. Olave remains a rookie sensation deserving of all the hype. He’s 18th in target share (25.8%), 12th in target per route run rate (28.3%), and fourth in air yard share (40.2%). He also leads the NFL in deep targets while ranking 11th in yards per route run. Olave can toast this secondary that’s 31st in DVOA against deep passing giving up the 11th-highest deep completion rate. Olave will run about 71% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (77.3% catch rate, 101.5 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (59.6% catch rate, 82.3 passer rating). Olave is a WR2.

Jarvis Landry: In his second game back from injury, Landry only managed a 14.8% target share, 59.4% route run rate, and 21% target per route run rate. Those marks aren’t nearly high enough to consider starting a wide receiver with a 9.2 aDOT. Monitor Landry’s usage this week, but he’s a must-sit for now.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is up to WR20 in fantasy points per game, as he’s having a fantastic season. Aiyuk has a 22.5% target share and 28.5% air yard share with nine red zone targets (22nd). He’s been a top-20 wide receiver with at least 80 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Aiyuk is a WR2.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR17 in fantasy with a 26.6% target share (13th), 30.3% target per route run rate (ninth), and nine red zone targets (22nd). He’s still operating in his short-area role with a 4.6 aDOT (96th) as he ranks fifth in yards after the catch. Samuel is a WR2 that will have some volatility, considering the low aDOT role he’s in and the 49ers limited passing volume.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Johnson is the TE13 in fantasy with top ten tight end weeks in four of his last five games (TE2, TE8, TE4, TE6). This could be another top-ten week against a tough defense against tight ends. Johnson has a 13.3% target share and ranks 23rd in yards per route run. His high-value usage has been nice, with five deep targets (ninth) and seven red zone looks (11th). The 49ers are ninth in DVOA against tight ends, but Johnson’s hybrid role precludes him from usual tight end analysis. Johnson will run nearly half his routes (48%) from the slot where he’ll meet Jimmie Ward. Ward has been dreadful at defending the slot allowing all 23 targets in his coverage to be secured with a 113.2 passer rating. Johnson is a TE1.

George Kittle: Last week Kittle crushed the ultimate matchup for tight ends, but this week won’t be like that. Kittle will need every bit of his 19.4% target share (eighth) and 15.8% air yard share (eighth) to turn in a solid day. Kittle is seventh in yards per route run and sixth in YAC. The Saints are first in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the lowest catch rate, eighth-lowest yards per reception, and only one receiving touchdown. Kittle is a TE1, but don’t expect smash numbers this week.

TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -6.5, O/U 46.5
• Packers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Eagles will push the pace and run the ball heavily. They are eighth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate.
• Green Bay has always been slow (28th in neutral pace), but their neutral passing rate is falling (down to 15th).

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers confirmed today his right thumb has been broken since Week 5, when the injury happened on the last play in London.

Here he is talking about it for a bit. Surgery has never been a thought and it won’t be after the season, either, he said. pic.twitter.com/FbbMOkXYtc

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 23, 2022

Aaron Rodgers: Well, the news of Rodgers’ broken thumb can at least explain his play which, to be honest, has still been good. Rodgers has been a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy asset this year. He’s the QB21 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 performances. Rodgers is ninth in PFF passing grade, fourth in big-time throw rate, and tenth in true passer rating, so the fantasy production and his real-life ability aren’t matching up. This is another week as a QB2 for Rodgers. The Eagles’ pass defense is still elite. Since Week 6, the Eagles are fourth in success rate per dropback, third in EPA per drop back, and allowing the lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB3 in fantasy, ranking third in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate. Last week’s 86 rushing yards was nice to see because he hadn’t surpassed 50 yards on the ground since Week 5. Hurts is fourth in rushing yards, first in red zone carries per game, and first in rushing touchdowns (eight) among quarterbacks. Hurts is a top-five fantasy option weekly. The Packers’ defense isn’t one to fear. Since Week 6, they are 19th in success rate per dropback, 16th in passing yards per game, and 16th in EPA per dropback.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has not played less than 66% of the snaps when healthy since Week 6. In his last four full games, he has averaged 21.2 touches and 112.2 total yards. Jones is the RB12 in fantasy, ranking ninth in weighted opportunities, 18th in fantasy points per opportunity, and 16th in snap share. Jones is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, sitting at 11th in juke rate, fourth in evaded tackles, and fourth in breakaway runs. The Eagles’ run defense additions did little to slow down Jonathan Taylor last week, and Jones should carve them up in Week 12. Since Week 6, they are 25th in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and second in rushing success rate. Jones is an RB1.

A.J. Dillon: Since Week 8, Dillon has averaged 11 touches and 48.8 total yards. Dillon hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. He’s remained involved in the red zone with four carries inside the 20 over his last four games. His season has been utterly disappointing, as he’s the RB47 in fantasy points per game. He’s 38th in yards created per touch, 44th in breakaway run rate, and 46th in yards per touch. Dillon is an RB4.

Miles Sanders: Sanders has seen his usage dip, with only one game over 13 carries over his last four. Sanders is the RB22 in fantasy averaging 16.8 touches and 80 total yards. Sanders is 11th in red zone touches and due for a score, as he hasn’t gotten into the end zone in the last two games. He’s 22nd in evaded tackles, 26th in breakaway runs, and 18th in true yards per carry. This is the bounceback matchup for Sanders. Since Week 6, the Packers are 27th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 21st in explosive run rate. Sanders is a strong RB2.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Lazard is the WR23 in fantasy with a 21.9% target share from Rodgers and 33.3% of the team’s air yards. He’s fifth in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. Lazard is 27th in PFF receiving grade and 37th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Lazard is a talented wide receiver, but not up to the skill level to overcome top-corner matchups. Trevon Diggs was able to shut him down in Week 10. Lazard’s best hope for a solid day is that 46.2% of his target volume comes via the slot away from Darius Slay (50% catch rate, 51.0 passer rating) and James Bradberry (44.8% catch rate, 43.7 passer rating). Lazard will run about 57% of his routes on the perimeter against this tandem, so he better make the slot targets count. Lazard is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Christian Watson: Since Week 10, Watson has had a 24.6% target share, a 75% end zone target share, a 45.4% air yard share, and 3.1 yards per route run. He’s that dude. This week’s matchup will put him to the test with his releases and using his speed versus this tough corner duo. Watson will run about 65% of his routes against Bradberry and Slay but don’t discount the Packers’ ability to move him around. Watson has three games this season where he’s played at least 40% of his snaps from the slot. Watson is a WR3.

Randall Cobb: The Packers didn’t waste any time tossing Cobb back into the mix last week in his first game action since Week 6. Cobb played 56% of the snaps with a 15.8% target share and a 63% route run rate. Cobb caught all six of his targets for 73 receiving yards. When he’s been on the field this year, he’s looked like the Cobb of old. He’s 11th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Cobb could see a spike in his usage this week to take advantage of Josiah Scott (71.4% catch rate, 120.3 passer rating) in the slot (Cobb 83% slot). Cobb is a WR4/5.

A.J. Brown: Brown didn’t look limited last week, playing 88% of the snaps and snagging five of his seven targets for 60 yards. Brown is the WR11 seeing a 29.3% target share (seventh), 30.8% target per route run rate (seventh), and 39.9% air yard share (fifth). Brown ranks third in yards per route run and eighth in red zone targets. He’ll run about 75% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (58.7% catch rate, 71.1 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (71.8% catch rate, 87.9 passer rating). Brown is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

DeVonta Smith: This could be another week of Smith leading the way against soft zone coverage. Last week Alexander and Douglas operated in zone on 70.6-72.7% of their snaps. Last week against the zone-heavy Colts, Smith led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Smith is a smooth operator against zone with 58.8% of his target volume against zone as he ranks 15th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Smith has a 25.4% target share and a 28.4% air yard share. He’ll run about 78% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is a weekly TE2. Since Week 8, he has had an 11.8% target share and 53.1% route run rate. His usage has been all over the map all season without much rhyme or reason. Tonyan has one red zone target over his last six games. The Eagles are 12th in DVOA against tight ends, limiting them to the third-lowest catch rate and tenth-lowest yards per reception.

TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -2.5, O/U 39
• Steelers vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Steelers continue to surprise, ranking ninth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
• Indy is 16th and 23rd in neutral pace and passing rate over the last two weeks.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is a QB2 against a tough Colts’ pass defense. Pickett is 31st in PFF passing grade and 24th in adjusted completion rate with a 3:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. His only top 12 week came against the Saints because he rushed for 51 yards with a rushing score. Pickett hasn’t crossed the 7.0 yards per attempt threshold since Week 4. Since Week 6, the Colts are fifth in passing yards per game, eighth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in explosive pass rate.

Matt Ryan: Since returning to the huddle, Ryan has QB5 and QB22 performances. Since Week 10, he’s 16th in PFF passing grade, 17th in yards per attempt, and 13th in adjusted completion rate. This is a matchup for Ryan to post some nice stats if the Colts can keep him clean. Since Week 6, the Steelers are 29th in EPA per dropback, 28th in passing yards per game, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. If you’re looking for a QB to stream with sneaky upside, it’s Ryan.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Last week, Harris played 92% of the snaps with 24 touches, 116 total yards, and two scores. This was arguably Harris’s best game of the season. Since Week 7, he’s started to show some of the form that made fantasy GMs want to draft him early this year. Over his last four games, he’s 24th in yards after contact per attempt, immediately behind Kenneth Walker, 18th in breakaway rate, and 17th in PFF’s elusive rating. Harris could flirt with 25 touches this week. Since Week 6, the Colts are 21st in rushing success rate, 17th in rushing yards per game, and 16th in explosive run rate. Harris is an RB2 with RB1 upside.

Jaylen Warren: Warren didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday. Consider him likely to be out this week.

Jonathan Taylor: After playing 94% of the snaps in Week 10 as a true every-down bell cow, Taylor played 75% of the snaps in Week 11 with 25 touches and 94 total yards. Taylor finally looks healthy. Since Week 7, he’s 19th in yards after contact per attempt, 14th in breakaway rate, and 20th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). His yards after contact per attempt has risen (from 2.56 to 3.18) in each of the last three games. Taylor is a volume-based RB1 this week in a tough spot. Since Week 6, the Steelers are third in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Over the last two games without Chase Claypool, Johnson has seen his target share dip to 15.6%, with a 25% end zone target share, 16.5% air yard share, and 1.05 yards per route run. Johnson has been a floor play all season as the WR45 in fantasy points per game, but the floor has fallen out now. He hasn’t finished as a WR3 or better since Week 5. The Steelers have force-fed him 11 red zone targets since Week 5, and Johnson still doesn’t have a touchdown this season. Johnson is a WR4 that will run about 89% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (59.3% catch rate, 75.6 passer rating) and Brandon Facyson (72.7% catch rate, 110.0 passer rating).

George Pickens: Since Week 10, Pickens has a 15.6% target share averaging 57.5 receiving yards with 1.53 yards per route run. He was the WR26 and WR11 over the last two weeks. Pickens only has two red zone looks over his last four games, and it hasn’t mattered as he’s scored twice in that period. Pickens is a WR3 that will run about 87% of his routes against Gilmore and Facyson. Pickens has outproduced Johnson since taking off in Week 4 with four WR2 or better weeks.

Michael Pittman: With Ryan back under center, Pittman has a 26.7% target share, 33.1% air yard share, and 2.17 yards per route run. The problem for Pittman all season is that it’s all hollow volume. Pittman has only one deep target and six red zone targets all season. Pittman has been targeted once inside the 20-yard line since Week 4. That’s egregious. Pittman is a WR3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (57.5% catch rate, 83.7 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (57.1% catch rate, 76.0 passer rating).

Parris Campbell: In Matt Ryan‘s last four starts, Campbell has a 24.1% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 1.73 yards per route run. Campbell finished as the WR9, WR5, WR11, and WR32 in those games, with at least 57 receiving yards each week. In that four-game span, he has four red zone targets. Campbell is a WR3 with huge upside running 78% of his routes against Arthur Maulet (73.5% catch rate, 119.9 passer rating). Pittsburgh has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.

Alec Pierce: Hello, Mr. Pierce. Last week he saw a 25.8% target share and 47.6% air yard share while seeing an 88.9% route run rate. Pierce only has a 13.8% target share this season, so he’s not someone I’m rushing to jam into lineups, but if you’re in deep leagues, he’s worth flex consideration. He’s been the Colts’ deep weapon with ten deep targets. The Steelers are ninth in deep passing yards, with the most deep passing touchdowns allowed.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Since the departure of Claypool, Freiermuth has been a volume hog with a 29.7% target share (9.5 targets per game), 25% end zone target share, and 32% air yard share. Freiermuth’s breakout has quietly been happening all season. He’s sixth in PFF receiving grade and tenth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Freiermuth is the TE7 with the second-most deep targets among tight ends. Indy is 27th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the third-highest catch rate to the position. Freiermuth is a top-five tight end.

TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN