Beyond the Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football Moves to Make (Week 17)

FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIPS ARE HERE.

You’ve put in the work. You grinded for 16 long weeks. And if you have made it this far…pat yourself on the back. Getting to your fantasy football championship is no easy feat.

Let’s finish the job.

Focus moves to the finals.

This means we’re zeroing in on what really matters: playoff stashes, injury fallout, drop candidates, player usage shifts, and schedule advantages — plus the key questions that were answered this week and the new ones we still need to figure out.

And I’m holding myself accountable to the name of this column — to truly go beyond the box score. No regurgitated stat dumps here (aside from the advanced ones provided by Next Gen Stats). Just the signal, not the noise.

I want to save time. You want to save time. Win-win, baby. Less is more.

Here goes nothing. Beyond the Waiver Wire. We are OFF.

Strength of Schedule for Week 17:

• QBs:
  • Best: Cowboys, 49ers, Patriots
  • Worst: Chiefs, Texans, Chargers
• RBs
  • Best: Raiders, Eagles, Bengals
  • Worst: Panthers, Jets, Steelers
• WRs
  • Best: Commanders, 49ers
  • Worst: Bills, Texans, Colts
• TEs
  • Best: Dolphins, Cardinals
  • Worst: Bills, Rams, Packers
• DST
  • Best: Saints, Lions, Giants, Steelers, Cardinals, Texans, Patriots
  • Worst: Falcons, Vikings, Jaguars, Ravens, 49ers
• Kickers
  • Best: Packers, Patriots, Bengals
  • Worst: Chargers, Bears

Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts recorded seven catches for 57 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets against the Cardinals, with all of his receptions coming between the numbers. Pitts was particularly effective on in-breaking routes, securing six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.

Bijan Robinson totaled 79 yards on 16 carries against the Cardinals, with 77 yards coming on 14 carries outside the tackles (Next Gen Stats).

Robinson was particularly effective against light boxes, gaining 61 yards on eight carries (7.6 yards per carry) when facing six or fewer defenders in the box. He also made a significant impact in the passing game, converting 7 of 11 targets into 92 receiving yards and a touchdown. Robinson’s 112 yards after catch in this game ranks as the 4th-most by any receiver this season and the 2nd-most in his career.

Tyler Allgeier also drew 16 carries, going for 79 yards.

Drake London returned to the lineup and saw great volume (9 targets). But he was inefficient, catching just three balls for 27 yards. Knocking off the rust (80 incomplete air yards) as he played just 69% of the snaps.

CB AJ Terrell also got banged up in this game.

Schedule

Arizona Cardinals

Add Michael Carter & Elijah Higgins

Elijah Higgins caught 7 of 8 targets for 91 yards against the Falcons, including 68 yards after catch, which ranks 8th-most for a tight end this season and doubles his previous career-high. All of Higgins’ targets came against zone coverage, with his most significant production coming against Cover 3, where he secured four catches for 82 yards on five targets (Next Gen Stats).

Bizarre that Higgins has this kind of game as the TE2 – with Trey McBride just catching four balls for 27 yards (8 targets, four in the red zone).

Still, the Bengals get destroyed by inline TEs…and Higgins plays more in-line than McBride does. You could do worse in a deeper format.

Michael Wilson also saw his targets get nuked with Marvin Harrison Jr. back. However, he bailed out fantasy managers with a TD and 52 yards on two catches (four targets).

Harrison also only had three targets (all deep targets with 73 incomplete air yards) on 51% of the snaps. Also targeted twice in the end zone.

The Cardinals have nothing to play for, so there’s no reason to limit Harrison in his second game back from injury. So clear that he is the preferred target over Wilson when both guys are healthy. Coaches have already said he’s ready for another game, free of the heel injury.

Note that the Week 17 matchup – as the Bengals allow the fewest PPG to WRs this season.

Per Next Gen Stats: He ran a route on 20 of Jacoby Brissett‘s 33 dropbacks (60.6%) and saw just three targets, catching one for 14 yards. It was a low-volume day for the entire Cardinals offense, as Arizona ran 56 plays, their fewest in a game since Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 6 after not running fewer than 60 plays in any prior start. Brissett also dropped back just 33 times, his fewest in any start in 2025.

Michael Carter led the backfield with 11 carries for 65 yards, but he was a non-factor in the passing game (0 catches on two targets). He played 53% of the snaps to Emari Demercado‘s 32% (mostly on third downs). Worth noting that Corey Kiner saw the two carries in the red zone (totaling six carries for 32 yards at 5.3 YPC). Played nine offensive snaps.

The Cardinals’ defense got hit by more injuries – losing DT Walter Nolen, LB Josh Sweat, and CB Garrett Williams. S Budda Baker also got nicked up.

Schedule

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson suffered a back injury and did not return in the Ravens’ loss to the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Jackson is considered day-to-day with a back bruise, though he said he hopes to play Saturday on the road against Green Bay.

Obviously, we have seen Tyler Huntley in this offense before, so you aren’t downgrading anybody you were already starting too substantially.

Zay Flowers only had three targets in the second half from Huntley. 7-63 on nine targets in the other start this season with Huntley as the QB (WR28 on the week).

Ravens coaches also confirmed that they were rotating backs, which is why Derrick Herny was not on the field during the penultimate drive.

Henry rushed 18 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns, including three explosive runs (10+ yards).

He recorded a season-high 66.7% success rate and totaled 52 rushing yards over expected. Henry reached an average rushing speed of 13.81 mph in the game, his fastest of the season and the second-fastest mark since joining the Ravens last year (Next Gen Stats).

Keaton Mitchell totaled nine carries for 13 yards.

Team has talked about getting DeAndre Hopkins more involved – and he was on SNF. 4-41 on five targets.

He has contract incentives FWIW (611 yards, 6 TDs, and 48% snap share), currently at 22-330-2.

Charlie Kolar led the Ravens in TE snaps (49%). All three TEs played within the 49%-40% snap range. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely tied with 12 routes each.

OG Andrew Vorhees got hurt for the Ravens. Coach John Harbaugh said Monday that Vorhees is day-to-day with a foot injury.

Teams have been throwing on the Ravens as of late – OVER 40 pass attempts per game – with their run defense not being nearly as much of a sieve as it was to start the season.

Schedule

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen hurt his leg at the end of the first half and received a lot of medical attention on the sideline before the half (entered the locker room early). Zero carries in the second half (four in the first half) until the fourth quarter (three carries). Said post-game he tweaked his ankle and it flared up, but later subsided. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the injury report this week.

Wasn’t asked to do a lot in the passing game with James Cook ripping off a ton of big rushing plays.

Cook rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries in a Week 16 win over the Browns.

The Bills are 11-1 in games when Cook has 100+ scrimmage yards this season, compared to 0-3 when he has fewer than 100 yards (NGS).

Cook generated 87 yards after contact, his 4th-most in a game this season. He was particularly effective on inside runs, gaining 78 yards and both his touchdowns on 11 such carries while producing +25 rushing yards over expected on those attempts.

Khalil Shakir was the leading receiver, catching four balls for 34 yards (five targets).

The Bills’ No. 1 WR has incentives that hit at 80 catches, 900 yards, and with every TD he catches from here on out. If we see Shakir go on a TD streak…that’s why.

Currently sitting on 66 catches for 684 yards and 4 TDs.

Nobody else saw more than two targets. Brandin Cooks had a monster drop (although the coaches talked about getting him more involved post-game?). I’d imagine they look to get Keon Coleman back in the lineup next week.

Dawson Knox also dropped a TD. Dalton Kincaid stayed in a limited role as he played through a knee injury.

Knox had been playing well as of late – Allen trusts him, and he has a bunch of contract incentives within range – 30 catches, 400 yards, 4-plus TDs.

One catch away and 37 yards from his next bonus hit.

Shaq Thompson also got hurt (neck).

Eagles next week, with Jalen Carter returning to the lineup.

Schedule

Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan recorded six catches for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers’ defense (31% target share).

McMillan was particularly effective outside the numbers, where he hauled in 3 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. The rookie receiver also found success against off coverage, registering three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.

In Week 16 against the Buccaneers, Bryce Young completed 21 of 32 passes (65.6%) for 191 yards and two touchdowns.

Young was particularly effective when targeting the outside numbers, connecting on 10 of 16 attempts (62.5%) for 116 yards and both of his touchdown passes. While he completed 17 of 21 attempts (81.0%) against zone coverage for 118 yards, his two touchdown passes came against man coverage.

Jaycee Horn was not targeted on 29 coverage snaps in Week 16, marking the first game of his career with at least 15 coverage snaps and zero targets.

Horn primarily matched up with Mike Evans (7 matchups), Chris Godwin (5 matchups), and Jalen McMillan (3 matchups).

CB Robert Rochell also got hurt.

Predictably so…the Panthers couldn’t run on the Bucs. Rico Dowdle and Chubba Hubbard both were held under 30 yards.

Dowdle salvaged some production with four catches for 14 yards (six targets). Led the backfield with a 57% snap share.

And Dowdle did out-touch Hubbard by a sizeable amount (more than three touches) for the second straight game (13 vs 7 in Week 16).

Even so, in the last six weeks, Dowdle has not finished higher than RB14 on the week. In fact, Dowdle only has one RB1 finish since Hubbard returned to the lineup in Week 7.

The Panthers RB does have some noteworthy contract incentives: 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs are what remain (sitting at 1270 yards and 6 TDs).

OT Ickey Ekwonu should also return next week.

Schedule

Chicago Bears

DJ Moore caught five of seven targets for a season-high 97 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 against the Packers (21% target share). On targets downfield (over 10+ air yards), he caught 3 of 4 targets for 88 yards and a TD, including the 46-yard game-winning touchdown catch in overtime.

Had it not been for the onside kick recovery… Moore would have finished with a much more modest four catches for 51 yards on six targets.

Even though he has been a top-8 WR in back-to-back games, he has averaged just a 19% target share (six targets/game).

No Luther Burden or Rome Odunze in this game. Neither was at practice on Tuesday.

Bears deployed a split backfield per usual – with Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift both averaging north of 4.5 YPC. Swift spearheaded the backfield with 58 yards on 13 carries. Monangai hit 50 yards on nine carries (adding three for 43 yards as a receiver).

Olamide Zaccheaus had more drops (get this man off the field) while Colston Loveland was non-existent. One of my bigger misses in Week 16 – Loveland was a major disappointment.

3 for 30 yards on four targets. And that was despite an 84% snap share and 91% route participation – both season-highs.

The matchup wasn’t great…so I think there’s a chance we were just one week early on Loveland.

Schedule

Cincinnati Bengals

Add Samaje Perine

With 309 passing yards and four touchdown passes in a win over the Dolphins, Joe Burrow became the 5th player in NFL history to record 20,000 pass yards in their first 75 career games (20,269), joining Patrick Mahomes (22,799), Matthew Stafford (21,254), Andrew Luck (20,569), and Dan Marino (20,293).

He excelled from a clean pocket, throwing all four touchdowns on such dropbacks while completing 20 of 24 passes for 202 yards. Burrow entered the game with just three total touchdowns from clean pockets this season (he had thrown five against pressure entering Sunday).

Chase Brown totaled 109 scrimmage yards in Week 16 against the Dolphins, rushing for 66 yards and adding 43 yards as a receiver.

He accounted for three touchdowns, two receiving and one rushing. Brown generated 5.1 EPA on his receptions, the highest single-game mark of his career, after entering the game with -23.8 receiving EPA on the season (Next Gen Stats).

Samaje Perine continued to rear his ugly head (7-25-1 on the ground with two catches on 39% of the snaps). Perine has contract incentives that hit at 500 rushing yards (currently at 335 rushing yards).

Tee Higgins scored, but was not back to his full-time role. Season-low in snaps.

Mike Gesicki also scored, running a route on just north of 70% of the dropbacks.

Keep tabs on CB DJ Turner, who left Sunday’s game with an illness (battling the flu).

Schedule

Cleveland Browns

Add Dylan Sampson & Raheim Sanders

Quinshon Judkins was carted off the field at the end of the first half after taking a gruesome hit to the knee. He broke his leg and will be out for the rest of the season.

Without him, the Browns turned to Trayveon Williams and Raheim Sanders. Classic case of Sanders operating as the early down/goal-line rusher with Williams playing on pass downs.

In the second half without Judkins, Sanders out-touched Williams 11-6. Williams is a journeyman player, whereas Sanders is a rookie with unknown upside (also the best bet to seize goal-line touches). Also, his role won’t overlap with Dylan Sampson, should Sampson return next week. The team has said that he continues to get better after not practicing at all last week.

The pass-catching role is robust in the Browns’ offense for RBs. Judkins was pacing for season highs in targets (6) and catches (5) before his injury. Williams also totaled four receptions of his own.

Harold Fannin overcame a tough matchup versus Buffalo with two TDs – 4 catches for 34 yards on six targets – with one scored at the goal line.

Fannin’s deployment and focal point in the Browns’ offense make him matchup-proof. Fannin is the clear-cut target leader with Sanders in the last six games, and injuries are concentrating the targets around him.

Rematch with the Steelers in Week 17:

BWW from that game in Week 6:

Just a tough matchup for the entire Browns offense. We knew this going in, as it was Dillon Gabriel‘s first road start against a well-rested Steelers defense. The expectations should have been low. And of course, Harold Fannin out-produces David Njoku after we got the reverse last week. These guys continue to be so flippy-floppy – which I acknowledged on shows heading into Week 6. Njoku was my highest-ranked Browns TE in Week 6, but I was ready to be wrong. Yup. Wrong. Fannin caught 7 for 81 on 10 targets. Njoku went 3-28 on six targets (although he went 0-2 in the red zone). When Gabriel is under center, the Browns’ tight ends have seen a ton of targets. They’ve combined for 30 targets (36% the last two games).

Each guy will have a floor based on volume. And if Njoku scores/doesn’t get hurt, you aren’t upset. Still, the six-week sample size of Fannin-Njoku has favored the rookie more often than not. In this past game, Fannin played 80% of the snaps to Njoku’s 44%. Now, this was more related to Njoku getting shook up in this game more than once (although he returned both times) before missing most of the fourth quarter. Add Fannin if Njoku is more injured than might be led on. According to Yahoo Sports, head coach Kevin Stefanski clarified that the tight end didn’t suffer a quad injury, but rather a setback to his knee. The rookie TE had five targets in the fourth quarter alone after Njoku left.

Jerry Jeudy just continues to underwhelm. 16 targets (3 RZ targets) but just five catches for 43 yards. Jeudy is just racking up expected fantasy points. In his defense, he did have a 22-yard catch removed on an illegal formation.

And regardless of how bad Jeudy continues to play, the HC continues to pound the table for his No. 1 WR. Post-game…”Ball is gonna keep coming his way.”

Quinshon Judkins has been game script proof in past games, but this contest wasn’t close enough to keep him involved. The Browns turned to Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson down so much.

Ford matched Judkins’ snap share (40%), with Sampson also chipping in (18%).

Regardless, the Browns’ defense should keep games closer than in Week 6 (especially when they play at home). This was just a brutal spot for the Browns overall, playing the week after a London game on the road against a healthier Steelers defense.

Schedule

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss against the Chargers.

Prescott was excellent under pressure, completing 8 of 9 passes for 77 yards and just one sack. He recorded a 70.0% success rate under pressure, his 2nd-highest in a game since 2018.

The Cowboys lost offensive linemen Cooper Beebe early in the game, but he returned.

WR Ryan Flournoy did not return after suffering an injury.

Dallas also lost more defensive players, with Donovan Wilson and DeMarvion Overshown getting hurt.

Malik Davis got more work for the second straight week. Eight carries to Javonte Williams‘ 9 carries. Williams played just 57% of the snaps.

Williams’ last touch came mid-3rd quarter. He got hurt last week, and the Cowboys are eliminated from postseason contention. Listed on the injury report this week with a neck injury.

As an impending free agent…curious to see how Williams’ workload is the next two weeks. He has already hit all of his contract incentives.

George Pickens fantasy managers rejoice! 7-130-1 on nine targets.

According to Next Gen Stats, his 130 yards from out wide were the most the Chargers allowed to a single receiver in a game this season and marked the first time they surrendered 100+ yards to an outside receiver. Pickens now has 1,246 receiving yards from out wide in 2025, tied for the most in the league with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Pickens has five top 5 finishes…three with Lamb and two without Lamb in the lineup. Lamb has just one this season after his eruption on Thanksgiving.

In the last eight games, Jake Ferguson has averaged under a 14% target share. Still, it’s a good matchup in Week 17.

Rematch from earlier this season:

BWW from Week 8 (Jayden Daniels got hurt mid-way through the game).

Javonte Williams rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.

Specifically, he gained 75 yards and two explosive runs on eight carries to the left (9.4 YPC), compared to just 41 yards with a touchdown on 11 carries to the right (3.7 YPC). Additionally, Williams tied his career-high with seven forced missed tackles in the game, while gaining 45 yards after those missed tackles, the 4th-most in a single game in his career (via Next Gen Stats).

CeeDee Lamb caught 5 of 8 targets for a team-high 100 yards and a touchdown, while playing on 77.4% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps (48 of 62) in his first game back from an ankle injury suffered in Week 3 (Next Gen Stats).

He was most efficient operating out of the slot, as he was targeted on 4 of 11 routes and totaled three receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. He also caught a 74-yard touchdown on his lone deep target, his first deep touchdown reception since Week 8, 2024, against the 49ers (via Next Gen Stats).

George Pickens was still very productive in Lamb’s return (4-82) on seven targets…with more highlight-reel plays.

Dallas also took another hit to their run defense…with NT Kenny Clark suffering an elbow injury.

Schedule

Denver Broncos

Bo Nix completed 28 of 47 passes for 352 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the Broncos’ Week 16 loss to the Jaguars.

Nix finished 7 of 8 for a career-high 180 yards on play action passes, his first time this season with over 100 yards off play action – he averaged 22.5 yards per attempt on play action compared to just 4.4 on all other attempts. After Nix completed his first two passes targeting go routes for 29 yards and a touchdown, the Jaguars held him to 0/4 on go routes the rest of the afternoon.

Rookie RB RJ Harvey was bottled up for most of the afternoon, but he ripped off a 38-yard TD. Always bet on explosive running backs who can catch passes. Only 11 touches on the day, but 121 yards from scrimmage (added four catches on five targets).

Jaleel McLaughlin got more involved – with five carries for 37 yards.

Courtland Sutton balled out again. 12 more targets and 6-86-1 (Nearly 140 incomplete air yards)

Sutton has reclaimed his rightful spot atop the Broncos’ WR depth chart. 10-plus targets in three straight games.

Troy Franklin is also back on the fantasy radar. 4-66 with a beautiful 48-yard catch on six targets.

Franklin was back to relevance without Bryant in Week 15, going six for 85 and 1 TD on six targets.

Pat Bryant took a brutal hit late in the fourth quarter that forced him to be carted off the field on a stretcher.

If Bryant misses another week, Franklin can be a WR3/FLEX play.

He’s scored five TDs in the last nine games—8-plus targets in five of nine, and four games with more than 40 receiving yards.

The Chiefs are also down multiple CBs – Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

Rematch of the Chiefs-Broncos game from Week 11.

BWW Week 12:

Bo Nix completed 24 of 37 passes for 295 yards in the Broncos’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs, completing 6 of 11 passes for a season-high 171 yards on passes over 10 air yards, including a 32-yard pass to Troy Franklin to set up a game-winning field goal (Next Gen Stats). The second-year WR finished with 124 incomplete air yards (58% air yards share).

Franklin was Nix’s go-to guy as he has been most of this season. The former Oregon wideout ranks as WR12 in expected fantasy points per game (XPPG). His growing chemistry with Nix is eating into Courtland Sutton‘s alpha role — Franklin has posted a 20%-plus target share over the past 7 weeks, slightly edging Sutton’s target share in that span. However, despite Franklin’s top-tier usage, he ranks third in the NFL in fantasy points under expectation, signaling possible regression ahead.

Sutton also contributed by moving the chains on a few key third downs in the fourth quarter. 21% target share with four catches for 59 yards on eight targets. Last five games for Sutton – three games with 59-plus receiving yards. Now to be clear, this Franklin sell take isn’t a recommendation to buy Sutton. But more of an acknowledgement that both guys will be involved and keep one from posting top-tier production. Sutton should at least bounce back versus the Commanders in Week 12.

Nix had a clean pocket on 72.5% of his dropbacks and posted 273 of his 295 passing yards when not pressured. The Chiefs blitzed on 24.4% of dropbacks, their 3rd-lowest rate of the season – Nix completed 6 of 8 attempts for 113 yards against the blitz.

RJ Harvey dominated the routes/targets, whereas Jaleel McLaughlin filled in the JK Dobbins role. The rookie played 61% of the snaps, whereas the other two RBs played eight snaps apiece. Harvey’s 14 touches for 50 yards were the second-highest in a game this season. He also had 3 RZ attempts but was vultured at the goal line by McLaughlin. Buy low.

Schedule:

Detroit Lions

The Lions’ OL couldn’t provide any push versus the Steelers.

Jahmyr Gibbs posted a comically low two rushing yards on seven carries (also fumbled). David Montgomery wasn’t much better (4 for 14 yards). Monty played just 13 offensive snaps (19%).

He has not cracked north of 10 opportunities in the last six games. Back-to-back games, Monty has played season lows in snaps.

It’s been trending downward in recent weeks (15-plus opps in just two of last eight games), and the Lions’ slight offensive regression in 2025 is hurting Monty (especially with OL injuries). And like I said before…just a clear RB2 behind Gibbs in the pecking order of who the Lions need to feature on offense. Monty is also still game script-dependent. The Lions’ interior offensive line remains a major weakness.

However, as Pat Fitzmaurice pointed out this week on the Week 17 RB Rankings Show…the Vikings defense is a run-funnel. Monty could see his largest output in a while.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had two TDs nullified on penalties. Also dealing with a knee injury.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) sidelined on estimated injury report Monday https://t.co/FqtQw2CzUX via @Koslow_ari #OnePride

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) December 22, 2025

Safety Avonte Maddox got banged up, along with Marcus Davenport. CB DJ Reed also needed medical attention.

Shane Zylstra was the TE1 for the Lions (1 end-zone target), playing ahead of Anthony Firsker.

Rematch of earlier this season versus the Vikings.

BWW Week 10:

The Detroit Lions fell to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9 — a defeat made even tougher by a slew of injuries to key starters. Guard Christian Mahogany suffered a significant knee injury and is expected to miss time, while veteran left tackle Taylor Decker (knee) and cornerback Terrion Arnold (back) both exited mid-game and were unable to return. OT Penei Sewell also got banged up.

Star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown also briefly left with a knock before returning, but the offense never fully regained its rhythm.

Jared Goff played efficiently despite heavy pressure from Minnesota’s defensive front, completing 25 of 37 passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns with a 108.4 passer rating. However, Detroit’s offense struggled to sustain drives behind a depleted line, especially in the second half when the Vikings’ pass rush took over.

St. Brown remained the focal point, catching nine of 13 targets for 97 yards and moving the chains on several key third downs (57% air yards share). He also had two end-zone targets but didn’t score.

Tight end Sam LaPorta matched him in yardage, hauling in six of eight targets for 97 yards and a 40-yard touchdown early. Jameson Williams added a 37-yard touchdown of his own and totaled four catches for 66 yards (six targets), flashing the downfield explosiveness Detroit has been seeking. Williams was held to -2 yards in the first half. But to the coaches’ credit (as they alluded to leading up to this game), they eventually got Jamo going in the second half. They like getting him in space to create explosives.

The backfield rotation was uncharacteristically uneven. David Montgomery handled 11 carries for 40 yards (3.6 YPC) and scored once while adding two catches for 10 yards (also lost a fumble while playing 37% of the snaps).

Jahmyr Gibbs, on the other hand, was bottled up for most of the game, managing 25 yards on nine carries and three catches for only 3 yards (66% snaps). His pass protection was a major issue — per Next Gen Stats, Gibbs allowed seven pressures on 16 pass-blocking snaps, tied for the most by a running back in a single game since 2018. Those lapses limited his usage on third downs and forced the coaching staff to rely more heavily on Montgomery for protection and clock-control situations.

Defensively, Detroit’s front played aggressively but wore down late. The pass rush produced 18 pressures and five sacks, tied for the second-highest pressure rate (58.1%) in any game this season.

Schedule

Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs was active despite being listed close to doubtful for this matchup. But it was a rough game. He couldn’t score despite five red-zone carries and two goal-line rushes. Jacobs also lost a fumble trying to score a TD. However, he was also not 100% playing, just 39% of the snaps compared to Emanuel Wilson‘s 46%.

Jacobs had 12 carries for just 36 yards, while Wilson had 14 carries for 82 yards.

Coach Matt LaFleur said Sunday that Jacobs ‘ (knee/ankle) lack of usage after his fumble in the third quarter during Saturday’s defeat at Chicago wasn’t a punishment but instead mostly was due to how well No. 2 RB Emanuel Wilson was running, Zach Jacobson of 247Sports.com reports. Jacobs also didn’t injure his knee further in the contest.

In relief of Jordan Love, Malik Willis was efficient through the air (+13.8% CPOE on 9 of 11 passing) and dynamic as a rusher (44 yards on 10 carries) in Week 16 against the Bears.

In windy conditions, Willis completed 4 of 5 pass attempts over 10 air yards for 100 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown to Romeo Doubs. Willis added 28 rushing yards on four scramble runs as well as 17 rushing yards on two designed runs.

Jordan Love was evaluated for a concussion and did not return after leaving at the end of the first half.

Coach Matt LaFleur said Sunday that Willis is dealing with a shoulder injury in the wake of Saturday’s loss in Chicago, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports.

Another significant injury to a Packers TE: John FitzPatrick was ruled out with an Achilles injury. WR Romeo Doubs also suffered a wrist injury. But before his injury, he was the most productive Packers’ WR with a 25% target share (5-84-1).

Two games with more than 55 yards in his last nine played. Zero catches in Week 14 (two targets).

Christian Watson had opportunities – including being wide open for a long TD – but he and Willis could not connect. He had three end-zone targets and 53 incomplete air yards.

Luke Musgrave played a season-high in snaps (77%), catching three balls for 38 yards. Also ran a route on a season-high 92% of the dropbacks.

Jayden Reed led the Packers in routes run (3 catches for 35 yards) and snaps.

If Doubs were to miss, it would be an obvious boost to Reed/Watson, with Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks also chipping in. However, we have also seen GB sans Jordan Love really lean into a rushing attack with Malik Willis under center.

If Willis starts in Week 17, it’s a major downgrade for all Packers WRs.

Schedule

Houston Texans

Add Jawhar Jordan

Jawhar Jordan drew the workload for Houston after news broke that Woody Marks would not play in Week 16. 15 carries for 53 yards and five receptions for 17 yards on five targets (46% snap share).

Marks was close to playing last week – but we can’t trust this coaching staff when it comes to RB health (hey Joe Mixon). Marks returned to practice on Tuesday.

Nick Chubb “started” but saw his second carry in the second half.

Add Jordan.

In the last two games, Jawhar Jordan has had a game with:

– 5 receptions
– 100-plus rushing yards

Woody Marks hasn't done either in any game this season.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 22, 2025

Nico Collins was held to just four for 59 yards on 11 targets, although he did also draw two DPI calls. Should rebound versus a banged-up Chargers’ secondary in Week 17. He has some contract incentives – 95 receptions and 1,460 yards – that would require two monster games for him to hit (200 yards per game).

The Texans also had a few OL injuries, with OT Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery leaving the game.

Schedule

Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception against the 49ers.

He averaged 9.4 air yards per attempt, his 2nd-most with the Colts, after averaging 4.7 (fewest with IND) in his first game in Week 15. Rivers completed 8 of 16 downfield passes for 151 yards, both of his TDs, and no INTs after he was 2 for 8 for 31 yards and an INT on downfield attempts in Week 15 (Next Gen Stats).

There was a clear effort to take more downfield shots – but his real long ones didn’t have high odds of being completed. Rivers will start the Colts’ Week 17 game against the Jaguars, per head coach Shane Steichen.

Jonathan Taylor was bottled up against a healthy 49ers defense – being limited to just 46 yards and 1 TD on 16 carries. Also caught three balls for 33 yards.

Alec Pierce scored twice, going 4-86 on just five targets (two end-zone targets). Feels very boom-or-busty with his high air yards per target (18.1). But this guy has just shown all year that he is just good. Also produced earlier this year versus the Jags with Riley Leonard at QB.

Pierce is also 129 yards away from 1,000 yards.

Josh Downs was the target leader at nine and finished with five catches for 65 yards.

Tyler Warren has been the target leader for the Colts with Rivers at QB. But the efficiency has been BUNS–nine more targets (25% target share) in Week 16, but only three catches for 30 yards. 15 targets over the last two games. But only six catches for 49 yards. 4 red-zone targets in the last three weeks.

Michael Pittman Jr. finished just four for 32 yards, but he did have another catch wiped away on a flag (six targets).

Keep in mind that MPJ is within striking distance of 1,000 yards (contract incentive). Hasn’t hit 1K in the last two seasons. And he cooked the Jags earlier this season (see below). Currently 243 yards away from 1K (121.5 receiving yards per game).

Downs scored two weeks ago and benefited from a plus slot matchup versus the Niners. Not the case versus Jacksonville – the Jags have two top-5 slot cornerbacks (Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis) that are allowing bottom-5 rates of yards per coverage snap.

Right now, I think that Warren/Pittman might just be the favorites to produce based on the matchup in Week 17 versus the Jags.

We know that the matchup next week versus the Jaguars is going to create volume for these Colts WRs. Center Tanner Bortolini was knocked out with a concussion. OG Dalton Tucker (shoulder) was also questionable to return to Monday’s game against the 49ers.

Edge rusher J.T. Tuimoloau also got hurt.

Week 15 BWW:

Daniel Jones tore his Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of the season.

Rookie QB Riley Leonard stepped in as Anthony Richardson is still recovering from his eye injury. The Notre Dame product went 18-for-29 for 145 yards and 1 INT, while also adding a rushing TD.

Alec Pierce also got hurt in this contest toward the end. He drew a DPI call and had another 21-yard catch wiped away on a flag. Also, an 18-yard TD catch was overturned upon review as an incomplete pass. Still managed a 5-80 outing.

Pierce has 65 yards or more in eight of his 11 games played this season.

The Colts did, however, lose OT Braden Smith to a concussion. DE JT Tuimoloau was also being evaluated for a possible concussion.

Michael Pittman recorded nine receptions for 79 yards on 12 targets against the Jaguars, being targeted on 35.3% of his routes (12 of 34), his highest target rate in a game this season.

Pittman was particularly effective in the short passing game, catching 8 of 10 targets for 55 yards on passes thrown under 10 air yards (Next Gen Stats). He also caught a 16-yard TD, but it was called back on an OPI call.

Josh Downs had three red-zone targets. Tyler Warren saw a 2-point conversion and three more red-zone targets.

That being said, a young, inexperienced QB is more likely to go right to his first read or tuck-and-run, forecasting high volume for Pittman ROS. 10 of his 12 targets came from Leonard in Week 14. Nobody else had more than five targets from Leonard (Alec Pierce/Tyler Warren).

Schedule

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence completed 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns in the Jaguars’ Week 16 win over the Broncos despite being pressured on 48.8% of his dropbacks, the 4th-highest rate of his career.

Lawrence totaled 234 passing yards and all three touchdowns from clean pockets, recording a career-high +18.3 EPA when not pressured. He turned to quick passes to deal with the Broncos’ pass rush, completing 10 of 14 attempts under 2.5 seconds for 155 yards (career-high 11.1 yards per attempt) and three scores.

Trevor Lawrence – last 11 games, one game outside the top-15 QBs (@ Houston).

QB1 in PPG (23.1) and 1st in XPPG. Top-5 PFF grade.

Fantasy QB1 since Week 5 (PPG)

Josh Allen (23.1)
Trevor Lawrence (23.1)

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 22, 2025

Parker Washington caught 6 of 10 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars’ Week 16 win in Denver. He gained 90 yards after the catch, the 4th-most by a Jaguars player since 2016, and +70 yards after catch over expected, the most by any Jacksonville pass catcher in that span and most by any player in the NFL in 2025. Washington caught five passes outside the numbers for 140 yards, the most by any player in a game this season, and his only touchdown (Next Gen Stats).

He was the hot hand in the receiving game, and Liam Coen was scheming him up targets. Played 75% of his snaps from the slot but finished 4^th in routes run among the Jags WRs/TEs.

The Colts have been tougher on slot WRs since Kenny Moore returned to the lineup.

In Week 14, Jags WR/TEs combined for six catches for 95 yards when aligned in the slot.

Brian Thomas Jr. could have only been so lucky (2-18 on three targets). He did, however, go for 87 yards in the first matchup versus the Colts. 2 TOP-13 finishes since Week 5.

If Sauce Gardner doesn’t return, BTJ is a boom-or-bust WR2 option versus a terrible Colts’ secondary in Week 17.

Jakobi Meyers went four-for-45 yards on eight targets (one end-zone target). Brenton Strange was also efficient, going 5-39-1 on seven targets (thrice in the red zone).

This is a bit of a crowded receiver room, and Washington benefited the most from the inside matchup against Denver. But before this game…he had six targets combined (missed Week 14). And his route participation only increased to 73%.

Travis Etienne was fed the lion’s share of touches without Bhayshul Tuten. 20 touches for 66 yards. Came close to scoring early and then caught another receiving TD from Lawrence. LeQuint Allen came in for a red-zone touch, but it was after a big Etienne play.

Patrick Mekari left the game in the first half and did not return. Robert Hainsey also got banged up briefly.

CB Greg Newsome also got hurt.

Montaric Brown was targeted in coverage just twice against the Broncos in Week 16 and did not allow a single reception.

Brown faced a season-low 5.1% target rate while recording two passes defensed, tied for his most in a game this season. Brown leads his team’s cornerbacks with an 18.2% ball hawk rate this season and has been targeted at a 13.6% rate, the lowest among Jaguars CBs.

Rematch with the Colts is next (who will might be getting back CB Sauce Gardner).

Week 15 BWW:

Travis Etienne ran for 74 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, with 75.0% of his attempts coming outside the tackles, tying a season high. Etienne rushed for 55 yards across 15 outside carries, along with one TD, while his remaining five carries between the tackles produced 19 yards and his second touchdown (Next Gen Stats). Played 72% of the snaps.

Bhayshul Tuten got hurt early in this game on a kickoff return – although he did return. He also fumbled twice – once on the kickoff return and on one of his few carries (recovered by the Colts). Brutal scene for the rookie RB, who struggled with fumbles in college.

Tight end Brenton Strange scored, but it was called back on a Jakobi Meyers OPI call. Still drew six targets (3-27) but busted without the score.

Brian Thomas Jr. totaled 87 yards, catching three balls on six targets, with a long of 39 yards. 43% air yards share but 74 incomplete air yards (24.1 air yards per target). Looked better than in the past weeks, giving fantasy managers some confidence ROS.

Meyers was still the target leader (10) with Parker Washington inactive. Tim Patrick operated as the WR3.

The Jags’ fantasy playoffs feature Denver/Colts, both of whom rank in the top 8 vs. RBs this season. The Jets are a layup after their mass exodus of players before the NFL trade deadline – Travis Etienne could flirt with RB1 overall status in Week 15 – but the other two matchups are more challenging for the Jags RBs. Although being fully transparent, the Colts’ run defense has not fared as well since they lost DeForest Buckner (neck injury). But he should return in the Colts-Jags rematch later this season.

Schedule

Kansas City Chiefs

Gardner Minshew suffered a knee injury versus the Titans. Reported shortly after the game to have torn his ACL. The third-string QB, Chris Oladokun, was thrust into action.

It was not successful. He completed 11/16 for 111 yards. 0 TDs.

Isiah Pacheco was the target leader (8) and rushing leader (8 for 34 yards). Kareem Hunt was tackled in the end zone for a safety. Pacheco took a larger role last week, and that carried over into this game. Played 72% of the snaps.

Travis Kelce had one catch for 6 yards (four targets). Three targets from Gardner Minshew. Zero targets in the second half. If Rashee Rice comes back from his concussion, Kelce might be a flat-out bench in Week 17.

As of Tuesday, Rice is still in the concussion protocol.

I also know that Marquise Brown will try to get back on the field ASAP. He’s very close to several incentives, including TDs (6-plus), playing time, and receiving yards (625). Caught all three of his targets for 22 yards in Week 16.

Xavier Worthy led with a 62% air yard share (2 catches for 41 yards).

Rematch versus the Broncos on deck Christmas Night.

BWW Week 12:

Travis Kelce caught 9 of 13 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, totaling 66 yards after the catch, his most since Week 7, 2023. On his fourth-quarter touchdown reception, Kelce gained 17 yards after forcing a missed tackle, his most such yards on a play since the start of last season (NGS).

Kingsley Suamataia (concussion) was ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s game against the Broncos. However, Josh Simmons allowed just two pressures on 49 pass blocks in Week 11 after missing several weeks (NGS).

Rashee Rice had five catches mid-way through the second quarter, but he tailed off in the second half. Still 10 targets overall for Rice (also had a drop and a short pass that fell short of the end zone, one of his three RZ targets). Buy low.

Rice is first among all WR in XPPG this season. He is the alpha, and Patrick Mahomes is more than capable of supporting multiple fantasy assets. Kelce would be the “sell” just based on the larger sample size of him playing with Rice, as his targets are usually nuked. TDs will always be part of the equation (Kelce scored in Week 11), but the veteran TE consistently ripping off 20-plus yards over the last three games (5) is not sustainable at his age. In the first half (with Rice seeing the majority of targets), Kelce was sitting on two catches for 14 yards on three targets.

Xavier Worthy drew a long DPI but was otherwise not involved.

Kareem Hunt played 80% of the snaps as the featured back with Isiah Pacheco sidelined (knee). If someone wants to give you something of value for Kareem Hunt, ship him off. However, note that Pacheco is still TBD to practice post-bye.

Schedule

Las Vegas Raiders

Once Ashton Jeanty‘s situation improves… the guy is going to be a monster. The tackle-breaking from college has been as advertised in the pros – along with his pass-catching chops. 93% snap share in Week 16.

Jeanty recorded 128 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against the Texans in Week 16 (+39 RYOE), including a career-high 104 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries between the tackles. Jeanty also generated 109 yards after contact, his 2nd-most in a game this season, and turned his lone reception into a 60-yard touchdown in the third quarter (Next Gen Stats).

Giants at home in Week 17. This is what fantasy managers have been waiting for.

Possible that OT Kolton Miller might also come back.

Tre Tucker tied Brock Bowers with a team-high five targets.

Schedule

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert completed 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers’ Week 16 victory over the Cowboys, adding another 42 rushing yards on four scrambles.

Herbert generated +23.9 EPA across his 33 dropbacks, the 2nd-most in a game in his career and 2nd-most by a quarterback in a game this season. The Cowboys’ defense was aggressive without their star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, blitzing Herbert on over half of his dropbacks (54.5%, a season-high). Herbert was unfazed by pressure, completing 9 of his 11 passes under pressure for 108 yards and a touchdown, and was not sacked. He was also able to push the ball downfield with success, going 7 for 10 for 163 yards on passes over 10 air yards, with both of his touchdowns coming on deep passes.

Quinnen Williams was out for Dallas, and I immediately moved Omarion Hampton up my Week 16 rankings (also smashed the over on his rushing props). 16 carries for 85 yards and 1 TD (2 targets).

The rookie has 15-plus touches in three straight games.

Quentin Johnston took advantage of the Dallas secondary – going for 4-104-1 on five targets (long of 50 yards). And with him back…Oronde Gadsden turned back into a pumpkin.

Ladd McConkey led the way with six targets (4-43-1).

Keenan Allen has reception bonuses at 80 (7 away). Has 73 on the season through 16 weeks. Also has escalators for TDs (needs two more) and yards (26 yards) within striking distance. Went 5-44 on five targets in Week 16.

Kimani Vidal also suffered a neck injury. Vidal has been diagnosed with a neck strain and is considered day-to-day. However, based on the Chargers signing multiple RBs from their practice squad…seems more likely Vidal is out this week.

The offensive line also took another blow with Jamaree Salyer getting hurt.

The Bolts lost CB Donte Jackson to an injury. Benjamin St. Juste also got hurt.

Schedule

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford became the fifth player in NFL history with 450-plus passing yards, three-plus touchdown passes, and zero interceptions in a Week 16 loss to the Seahawks.

Stafford was particularly effective against the blitz, going 8 of 13 for 140 yards and two touchdowns. He also showed efficiency when operating from under center, completing 12 of 18 attempts for 177 yards and all three touchdown passes. Stafford’s 457 passing yards are his most in a game in the Next Gen Stats Era (since 2016), but his -9.2% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is his 6th-worst in that same span.

Despite the tough road matchup on a short week and no Davante Adams, Stafford showed why fantasy managers should always “start your studs.” I know I was low on Stafford this week – and in hindsight, fading the MVP frontrunner probably wasn’t the best advice I could give.

His top target, Puka Nacua, recorded a career-high 225 receiving yards on 12 receptions with two touchdowns in the game. Nacua became just the second player in NFL history with 165-plus receiving yards in three straight games, joining former Rams wide receiver and Hall of Famer Isaac Bruce (Weeks 5-8, 1995).

Nacua accumulated a career-high 133 yards after the catch against the Seahawks, 26 more than his prior high (Week 17 vs. Giants, 2023).

Nacua also recorded 68 yards after contact, another season high and his most since that same Week 17 game against the Giants. He was particularly effective on in-breaking routes against Seattle, catching 8 of 10 targets for a career-high 178 yards and both of his touchdowns.

Colby Parkinson could have only been so lucky to sniff part of Nacua’s production. The popular waiver wire tight end bombed hard despite his QB’s historic day—just two catches for 21 yards on four targets (two drops).

He played 86% of the snaps, the most among all Rams skill players. Also ran just one fewer route than Terrance Ferguson (who led the Rams TEs in routes run for the second straight game).

McVay said this in his post-game Friday presser (S/O CoachSpeak Index):

“Terrance Ferguson is continuing to ascend into a complete player. He made some critical plays in some big moments. He’s gonna continue to be a factor, and I think the best is yet to come for him. I think he’s got an incredibly bright future. Love Terrance.”

Best is yet to come… he’s a stud, etc., etc.

And despite all the red-zone trips…Parkinson was targeted zero times in the red zone. Ferguson scored twice (although one was called back on a penalty), finishing with three catches for 33 yards.

Davis Allen actually drew the most TE targets (5).

Even though Davante Adams will likely miss another week, Parkinson will likely remain in the TD-or-bust category in a tougher matchup versus Atlanta. Expect more heavy three TE-sets.

Konata Mumpfield was the true Adams “replacement” playing 46% of the snaps, demanding eight targets (3 for 40 yards). He also drew a red-zone target.

Sean McVay said Friday that Adams is unlikely to return for Week 17 against the Falcons.

Kyren Williams operated with 26 touches for 85 yards, but Blake Corum (14-48-1) scored the rushing TD. Both RBs drew three goal-line carries.

OG Kevin Dotson was spotted on crutches and was wearing a walking boot following Thursday’s loss to the Seahawks. Head coach Sean McVay said Friday that Dotson is nursing a sprained left ankle and is doubtful to play in Week 17 against the Falcons on Monday.

Schedule

Miami Dolphins

Add Darren Waller

Quinn Ewers completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards and two interceptions in his first NFL start in Week 16 against the Bengals.

Ewers was efficient in the first half, going 10-for-12 for 109 yards and generating 6.5 total EPA. In the second half, however, Ewers completed 10 of 18 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions and finished with -7.4 EPA. Ewers leaned heavily on play action, using it on 41.9% of his dropbacks and completing 11 of 12 passes for 177 yards on those throws. Without play action, he completed just 9 of 18 attempts for 83 yards, with both interceptions coming on non-play-action passes (Next Gen Stats).

Mike McDaniel confirmed post-game that Ewers would likely start in Week 17.

Jaylen Waddle was fine in Quinn Ewers‘ first start, although he benefited from CB DJ Turner being less than 100%. The Dolphins WR posted a modest 5-72 on nine targets (67 incomplete air yards and five targets off play action). 30% target share.

Gives us faith that Waddle can be started next week in a plus matchup versus the pass-funnel Buccaneers.

Jaylen Waddle has topped 82 yards in five of his 11 games this season without Hill, averaging OVER seven targets and 68 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (15-game sample size). He should be back on the fantasy WR2 radar versus the Bucs.

The TEs combined for 86 yards, with Darren Waller leading with 3-40 on five targets (all production came in the first half). Greg Dulcich went 3-for-3 for 46 yards. Waller ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks.

De’Von Achane stayed on the tracks with 19 touches for 90 yards and 1 TD (3 targets).

Schedule:

Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson led the Vikings with six receptions and 85 receiving yards in their Week 16 win over the Giants.

This was Jefferson’s most receiving yards in a game since Week 5 at the Browns (123). Jefferson (567) passed Jarvis Landry (564) for the most receptions by any player in their first six seasons in NFL history.

Jefferson has plummeted to the WR2 range in the rankings (if not lower). Zero top-8 finishes this season—zero 20-point games. The “upside” has not been there for Jefferson this season. The hope was that the schedule could boost his production, but that has not been the case despite his QB playing better.

Even with another good matchup coming up, Jefferson seems more like a WR3/FLEX play based on how bad he has performed with his second-year QB (that is essentially playing like a rookie QB).

Both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason got hurt versus the Giants. Mason was quickly ruled out (carted off with an ankle injury), while Jones returned to action.

Jones got FED as the bell cow (64% snap rate). 21 carries for 85 yards, and two catches for 8 yards (four targets).

JJ McCarthy, who left Sunday’s 16-13 win over the Giants, appears to have avoided a broken bone in his hand, according to Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune, with coach Kevin O’Connell having confirmed that the QB’s initial X-rays came up negative. However, he will not play in Week 17.

Center Ryan Kelly (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s game against the Giants. Jordan Addison also briefly dealt with an injury, but he returned. He also had a bad drop in the end zone.

A short week for an undermanned Vikings’ team is not ideal. Max Brosmer was terrible in his first start of the season – and Detroit will be no easy feat. Brosmer played the entire second half in Week 16 – 7/9 for 52 yards. He was confirmed as the starter by Kevin O’Connell on Tuesday.

The Vikings’ offensive line is still a mess, and the Lions can still rush the passer effectively.

Minnesota’s run defense also got exposed versus the Giants, allowing north of 4.3 YPC with several defensive line injuries.

Rematch of earlier this season:

BWW Week 10:

Detroit’s defense overwhelmed Minnesota’s offensive line, generating 18 pressures and five sacks, tied for the second-highest pressure rate in any game this season (58.1%). According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions blitzed on 13 of JJ McCarthy’s dropbacks, producing nine pressures and two sacks. Despite the constant heat, McCarthy showed composure, completing 7 of 11 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown when blitzed. He finished 14 of 25 for 143 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception while adding 9 carries for 12 yards and a rushing score — flashes of resilience in a chaotic pocket.

The Vikings’ backfield rotated between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, but an injury to Jones changed the game’s complexion. Jones played 42% of the offensive snaps before leaving with an AC joint sprain, rushing 9 times for 78 yards (8.7 YPC) and catching both of his targets for 20 yards — 98 total yards on just 11 touches. His explosiveness was on full display, highlighted by a 31-yard burst that set up a score. Mason stepped into the lead role after Jones’ exit, logging 59% of the snaps and finishing with 10 carries for 36 yards (3.6 YPC) and one reception for 1 yard on seven routes (37 total yards). Mason handled the bulk of second-half touches, operating as bellcow once Jones was ruled out.

Team seems optimistic about Jones, but he’s reaching that age/point in his NFL career where his availability will always be in question. Hold Mason till we get more injury news on Jones.

In the passing game, Justin Jefferson remained the focal point, commanding nine targets (36% target share) and catching six passes for 47 yards and a touchdown before briefly exiting with a minor injury.

He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB (something he has always done). Although yardage was down in this contest compared to with Carson Wentz (averaged over 100 yards per game), both his TDs have come with McCarthy as QB1.

T.J. Hockenson continued to be a reliable red-zone option, catching both of his targets for 11 yards and a short score (12% target share). Jordan Addison flashed early with a 31-yard reception — part of his 48-yard day on two catches (16% target share and 41% air yards share with five deep targets) — and also took a jet sweep for 16 yards, while Jalen Nailor added a 16-yard grab on one of his four targets.

Felt like Addison might take the biggest hit with McCarthy, and that was correct in Week 9. However, Addison did have some missed opportunities on some deep balls for additional production.

Hockenson is the one who is seeing his targets evaporate with the second-year QB. Fewer than four targets per game.

Schedule

New England Patriots

Add Mack Hollins

Drake Maye completed 31 of 44 passes for 380 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the Patriots’ Week 16 win over the Ravens that clinched a playoff berth.

He finished strong in the second half, completing 16 of 24 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown while generating 7.0 total EPA, after recording just 1.9 EPA in the first half. Maye also excelled downfield, completing 4 of 5 deep attempts (20+ air yards) for a career-high 111 yards and a touchdown (Next Gen Stats).

Stefon Diggs caught a team-high 9 of his 10 targets for 138 yards.

Diggs was especially productive downfield, catching all 3 of his targets of 10 or more air yards for 81 yards. It is Diggs’ fourth game with at least 100 receiving yards. Additionally, Diggs totaled at least 30 yards against three different defenders (Washington: 44, Humphrey: 42, Wiggins: 39); he had not recorded 30 total receiving yards in each of his last three games (Next Gen Stats).

His route participation grew to 83% potentially related to Kayshon Boutte‘s injury.

With Kayshon Boutte back, Diggs wasn’t running enough routes to be an automatic start.

However, Maye and the Patriots still know he is the No.1 guy. And Diggs wants to get paid. He has contract incentives for 80 catches and 1,000-plus yards (Currently at 76 catches for 869 receiving yards).

Boutte and TreyVeon Henderson both suffered head injuries. Henderson was ruled out with a concussion.

Rhamondre Stevenson (84% snap share) will be a bell cow if Hendo can’t go next week.

The Pats also got hit by a lot of injuries.

If Boutte is also out with a concussion, Mack Hollins becomes a usable piece.

Hollins caught seven balls for 69 yards on nine targets in Week 16.

Weeks 10-11 with Boutte sidelined (including against the Jets), Hollins posted 6-106 on 10 targets and 4-64 on five targets. Also has a contract incentive for 50 catches (currently at 46).

OTs Morgan Moses and Thayer Munford got hurt (as did DeMario Douglas). OG Jared Wilson is also in concussion protocol.

DTs Khyiris Tonga and Joshua Farmer left the game. Tonga will be out a few weeks.

Hunter Henry rebounded in a better matchup. He has contract incentives for 55, 60, and 65 receptions (currently at 52 receptions).

The Patriots will face the Jets in Week 17 – a rematch from an earlier Thursday night game.

BWW Week 12:

Nearly all of Drake Maye‘s production through the air against the Jets came on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds, including 237 of his 281 passing yards and his lone touchdown. Despite Maye holding for longer than 2.5 seconds on a season-high 73.5% of his dropbacks, he was sacked only once on the night. Maye was at his best targeting receivers on in-breaking routes, finishing 12 of 16 for 158 yards (Next Gen Stats).

Stefon Diggs is the alpha. He caught 9 of his 11 targets for 105 yards in the Patriots’ TNF win over the Jets. Against zone coverage, Diggs was targeted nine times, catching eight for 100 yards. Most of Diggs’ production came on passes thrown under 10 air yards, earning seven receptions on eight targets for 62 yards (Next Gen Stats). There was a usage change here with Diggs as well that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Season high snaps (71%) and route participation (88%). If Diggs is truly becoming an every-down WR…he can challenge for fantasy WR1 status ROS. Buy high.

TreVeyon Henderson. HOLD THE LINE. Even if Rhamondre Stevenson does return, I think it’s clear who the No. 1 is. Also, the schedule ROS suggests both guys can still be usable pieces even if it’s not Henderson seeing 90% of the snaps.

Henderson gained more rushing yards after contact (70) than he did total on the ground (62) in a three-touchdown performance against the Jets. Henderson forced a career-high nine missed tackles across 24 touches (19 rushing, five receptions). Henderson, who played on 56 of 62 snaps (90.3%), became the first Patriots running back to play over 90% of snaps in a game since Ezekiel Elliott in Week 18, 2023 (NGS).

Hunter Henry was so close to scoring in the red zone, but Maye’s pass got tipped at the line of scrimmage before the Pats TE could snag it in the end zone. Pain. However, we will not tilt because the Bengals are next.

Kyle Williams is playing ahead of DeMario Douglas.

The biggest injury was to Patriots DT Milton Williams. If he misses games, the Pats’ run defense won’t be nearly as elite as it has been for most of the 2025 season.

New Orleans Saints

Add Taysom Hill

Because, of course, it was Taysom Hill week. After teasing Hill throughout the season, HC Kellen Moore finally committed to the QB/TE/RB in a plus matchup versus the Jets.

Career day for Hill, who played 34 offensive snaps (44%). He carried the ball 12 times (11designed attempts) for 42 yards (long of 8) and lost a fumble. He caught 4 passes for 36 yards (six targets). And he also threw a 38-yard passing TD. He also caught another TD – but it was overturned on a holding penalty.

113 total yards (including a converted fake punt attempt for a first down).

If his usage sticks in Week 17 – hard to imagine as many TEs with this time of weekly upside in their range of outcomes. Great matchup next week versus a beatable Titans’ defense in Week 17.

As for the backfield, Audric Estime was indeed the lead – playing 58% of the snaps to Evan Hull‘s 21%. However, with Hill stealing the show, Estime was left with just eight touches for 36 scoreless yards (played 76% of the third down snaps).

Tyler Shough completed 32 of his 49 attempts for 308 yards and a touchdown in the Saints’ Week 16 win over the Jets.

Shough averaged a time to throw of 2.54 seconds, his third consecutive game under 2.7 seconds after a career-long time to throw in his Week 13 loss to the Dolphins (3.04 seconds). Shough was at his best on quick passes, completing 19 of his 23 attempts under 2.5 seconds for 195 yards and a TD. As a result of his quick passes, Shough was pressured on a career-low 17.0% of his dropbacks (Next Gen Stats).

Chris Olave caught 10 of his 16 targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16 against the Jets, catching 5 of his six targets for 75 yards and a TD when facing man coverage. Olave’s 75 yards against man are a season-high, and his most since Week 12 of the 2023 season, where he totaled 103 yards vs man coverage. Olave also caught all 4 of his targets on out routes for 49 yards (NGS).

Juwan Johnson finished with eight catches for 89 yards. But more importantly, he hit his 70-catch contract bonus incentive. Also has ones for 800 receiving yards (currently at 733 yards).

Foster Moreau also left this game with an injury, along with DT Bryan Bresee. Bresee leads the Saints in snaps and run stops on the Saints’ DL this season.

Schedule

New York Giants

The Giants’ offense recorded just 13 total net pass yards in a Week 16 loss to the Vikings, the fourth-fewest by the franchise in a game in the Super Bowl Era.

Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart was held to 33 pass yards (with sack yardage accounting for the difference in net yards), threw 1 INT, posted a 27.4 passer rating, and was sacked five times in the defeat (Next Gen Stats).

Clearly, there was an effort to keep Dart in bubble wrap as the Giants posted a -23% pass rate over expectation. Woof. Didn’t help that they lost multiple offensive linemen.

Raiders’ matchup is supposed to be good next week (although C.J. Stroud didn’t do much), but fantasy managers’ trust in Dart has definitely faltered in his recent appearances since coming back from his concussion. Just three designed rushing attempts with one top-10 QB finish.

Interim HC Mike Kafka downplayed this narrative, saying, “We’re full throttle ahead, Jaxson’s running the ship. No question about that.”

The Vikings defense (despite multiple injuries) pressured Jaxson Dart on 9 of his 19 dropbacks in their Week 16 win, holding him to 1 of 3 passing for 14 yards under pressure, while sacking him 5 times.

They were just the second team with five or more sacks on fewer than 10 pressures in a game this season. Their coverage unit was even more effective when the pass rush did not generate pressure – Dart finished 6 of 10 for 19 yards and an interception on those dropbacks. The Vikings generated a 90.0% defensive success rate on dropbacks without pressure, the highest by any team in a game this season.

The matchup was brutal versus Minnesota, so consider that when ranking Dart this week on the road versus Las Vegas. However note that the Raiders’ pass rate faced (51.7%) trails only the Vikings, Saints and Jets.

Tyrone Tracy led the backfield with a 62% snap rate (16 carries for 71 yards) to Devin Singletary‘s 38%.

Solid matchup overall for the run game next week. Tracy has just been very good despite splitting work with Singletary since the Cam Skattebo injury.

Tracy has five games with at least 71 yards from scrimmage. Giants RBs combined have hit 97+ yards in five straight between Tracy and Singletary.

Singletary did get the lone GL carry versus the Commanders in Week 15, but Tracy dominated the red-zone touches in Week 16 (4-1).

Still, GL carries are 10-3 for Singletary since Week 10. Nobody else had more than two.

Wan’Dale Robinson was the target leader (8, 46% target share).

John Michael Schmitz (hand) is questionable to return to Sunday’s matchup versus the Vikings. OT Andrew Thomas also got hurt and didn’t play in the second half.

CB Cor’Dale Flott also got hurt. Safety Tyler Nubin also got nicked up.

Schedule

New York Jets

Hold Breece Hall

Breece Hall rushed for 54 yards on 16 carries while adding two catches for 9 yards (64% snap rate). 18 total touches.

Isaiah Davis led the Jets with four catches for 52 yards.

Beyond that, it’s clear the Jets don’t get Breece more involved as a receiver. And I know fantasy managers are frustrated. But next week against the Pats at home feels very beatable, given how poorly their run defense has performed in recent weeks due to all their injuries.

Adonai Mitchell led the team with six targets, going three for 43 yards.

With Mason Taylor out another week, TE Stone Smartt went a perfect 5-for-5 for 34 yards despite playing fewer snaps than Jeremy Ruckert.

John Metchie had one catch despite five targets. Been out-produced the last few weeks by Isaiah Williams (someone who has been involved in the last three games). Williams caught all four of his targets for 25 yards.

HC Aaron Glenn also confirmed that Garrett Wilson‘s season was over.

BWW Week 12:

Mason Taylor split work with Jeremy Ruckert. The rookie TE’s saving grace was that he would be the clear-cut No. 1 tight end in usage for New York. Not the case in Week 11. Taylor ran a route on just 51% of the dropbacks (season-low). BOO.

Adonai Mitchell was the target share leader at 22% (and was getting open), but my man couldn’t squeeze the football. Instead, John Metchie stole the spotlight as the other WR the Jets traded for. Caught all three of his targets and scored. And more importantly, he caught the attention of his HC, who said post-game that Metchie is a guy they need to get the ball to with Garrett Wilson out for the next several weeks.

Aaron Glenn also pointed out that Breece Hall (72% snap share) was not seeing enough targets, so that should change in the upcoming weeks. High touch floor is there every week with Hall (16 touches in Week 11), but the lack of TDs limits the ceiling unless he rips off an explosive play. The schedule is tough. Weeks 15-16 are both on the road, and Week 17 is the Pats. Love Hall, but there’s a lot of risk being too heavily invested in the Jets in the fantasy postseason – I think you’ve got to sell if you still can to a RB-needy team.

Schedule

Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley rushed for 132 yards on 21 attempts with one touchdown, forcing six missed tackles for a season-high 63 yards after missed tackles. A significant portion of that came on his 48-yard run in the fourth quarter, where he forced three missed tackles and gained 53 yards after those missed tackles. Barkley was particularly effective running to the left side, accumulating a season-high 101 yards (7.8 yards per carry) and a touchdown on 13 carries.

Barkley has been better in recent weeks with some positive matchups. Buffalo represents the same thing, with their run defense atrocious. They have more defensive injuries between Jordan Phillips, DaQuan Jones, Jordan Poyer, and Shaq Thompson.

And with Lane Johnson back, the entire Eagles’ offense should see a massive boost. Barkley is 155 yards away from 1,500 yards from scrimmage (contract bonus)

Tank Bigsby scored later in the game, coming in after a big Barkley run. Broadcast raved about Bigsby at the end of the game—probably a good dynasty target.

A.J. Brown caught nine of 12 targets for 95 yards in the Eagles’ Week 16 victory over the Commanders. Brown has earned double-digit targets in five of his last six games after only doing so once in his first eight games this season. Brown had nearly all of his production come on hitches and slants, catching all eight targets for 71 yards across 15 combined routes. On his other 17 routes, he caught just 1 of 4 targets for 24 yards.

Via Next Gen Stats… the Bills have held the opposing No. 1 wide receiver to fewer than 45 receiving yards in each of their last FIVE games.

Nico Collins had 55 yards in that game versus Buffalo. DK Metcalf had 32 yards in Week 13, Ja’Marr Chase had 44 yards in Week 14, and Stefon Diggs was held to just 26 yards in Week 15.

Fourth-fewest % of WR fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs. Fourth-highest allowed to slot WRs.

DeVonta Smith was efficient – going six for 42 yards and 1 TD (eight targets). Had another end-zone target knocked out of his hands – but he scored a few plays later.

I felt like Smith had the opportunity to finish the year on a high note, given the defenses on the Eagles’ schedule were bad versus slot WRs. That will be true versus Buffalo in Week 17 (top-5 % of fantasy points to slot WRs). Buffalo has also been very good versus No. 1 WRs in the last several weeks, suggesting more targets for the Slim Reaper.

Strong start in Week 17.

Dallas Goedert was quiet until the second half – and he got lucky, he scored despite just three targets. Jahan Dotson scored a few plays earlier, but a penalty wiped it away.

DG might need to be benched next week. The Bills are elite versus fantasy TEs (particularly versus inline ones).

LB Nakobe Dean (hamstring) is questionable to return.

Reinforcements on the way: Eagles DT Jalen Carter (shoulders) and OT Lane Johnson (foot), both are expected back next week in time to play against the Buffalo Bills, per sources.

Eagles OL Tyler Steen was ejected after this brawl broke out late in the fourth quarter.

Schedule

Pittsburgh Steelers

Add Darnell Washington

Per Next Gen Stats, Jaylen Warren dominated against the Lions, piling up a career-high 29.1 PPR points.

Warren and Kenneth Gainwell split the backfield nearly evenly, with Warren playing 34 snaps to Gainwell’s 38, and both were highly effective.

Third week in a row, they split touches close to 50/50.

Warren carried 14 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns, while Gainwell did most of his damage as a receiver, catching 5 of 7 targets for 78 yards and a score (23.8 PPR points). Warren generated +95 rushing yards over expected, the most in a game in his career, and also gained a career-high 52 rushing yards before contact (Next Gen Stats)

Warren recorded 14 carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns, generating 91 yards after contact and forcing 66 yards from missed tackles, both the most allowed by the Lions defense to a running back this season. Kenneth Gainwell led all Steelers receivers with five receptions on seven targets for 78 yards and a touchdown, producing a season-high +37 receiving yards over expected. Overall, the Steelers running backs had their most explosive runs (6) in a game this season and averaged a season-high 3.0 yards before contact per carry.

The Lions missed 11 tackles and allowed a season-high 96 yards after missed tackles in their Week 16 loss to the Steelers.

In Weeks 1-15, the Lions had allowed the 2nd-fewest yards after missed tackles in the NFL (445) and were one of two defenses to have a missed tackle rate under 10%.

WR Calvin Austin got hurt in this game (hamstring), along with CB Brandin Echols.

If and when DK Metcalf gets suspended for punching a fan…the Steelers will be trotting out this WR unit in Week 17:

• Adam Thielen (most snaps behind Metcalf)
• MVS (got banged up and dropped a pass from Aaron Rodgers, saw an end-zone target and two deep targets, 74 incomplete air yards).
• Scotty Miller
• Ben Skowronek
• Roman Wilson (healthy inactive), but Mike Tomlin said he could see more opportunities given the status of their other top 2 WRs.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be the greatest WR of all-time if you didn't need to catch the football. pic.twitter.com/wFsqQhJsN2

— Barry (@BarryOnHere) December 22, 2025

Worth noting that Metcalf caught a TD, but it was called back on a flag. Also drew another OPI call. I’d presume we get more RBs/TEs than WR production if Metcalf gets suspended.

The Browns’ defense has been leaky versus the run in recent weeks after being hit by a ton of injuries.

It was confirmed on Monday that Metcalf will be suspended for the rest of the regular season. He will appeal.

The NFL is suspending Steelers WR DK Metcalf two games without pay for physically confronting a Lions fan during Sunday’s win at Detroit, per sources.

Metcalf, who had reported the same fan to security last season, plans to appeal. pic.twitter.com/c3EisNDHjD

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 22, 2025

Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth split TE1 duties pretty evenly, both in routes and targets (four each).

Rematch versus the Browns this week.

BWW Week 7:

Jaylen Warren was the lead back (53% snap share), but both Kenneth Gainwell (34%) and Kaleb Johnson (19%) chipped in.

The issue for Warren wasn’t the rushing (11 for 52 in a tough matchup), it was his lack of receiving—just two targets compared to Gainwell’s six. Warren still had the red-zone usage, but the Gainwell receiving is going to hurt his bottom line. Gainwell ran more routes than Warren (42% to 36%).

And this was a 3-man RB rotation in the first half. Johnson didn’t just get garbage time.

He had three carries in the first half to Warren’s six and Gainwell’s three.

I listed DK Metcalf as a sell before the bye week. And another week in, the call looks like a miss. 4-96-1 on a team-high nine targets. Now he isn’t going to catch TDs every week…But I do want to highlight the usage change. More targets this week than any up to this point…and he was finally being used downfield (four deep targets, including his TD grab). 70% air yards share.

Although I want to keep tabs on this if/when Calvin Austin returns (not likely this week), in Weeks 1-4, Austin ranked 4th in the NFL in air yards share.

Mentioned this in my BP Primer this week regarding the Steelers’ tight ends. They are playing Darnell Washington more against 4-3 defenses (later confirmed in Mike Tomlin’s post-game press conference). It’s why he played 80% of the snaps over Jonnu Smith (69%) and Pat Freiermuth (36%).

So yeah…keep betting the unders on Freiermuth. And if you are hurting at tight end…Washington isn’t the worst TE option considering the elite matchup vs Cincy.

Schedule

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy completed 25 of 34 pass attempts for 295 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception in the 49ers’ Week 16 win over the Colts.

He totaled 197 yards when targeting in-breaking routes, the 2nd-most of his career, and threw four touchdown passes targeting out-breaking routes, tied for the most in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen). Purdy completed 11 passes beyond 10 air yards, the 2nd-most of his career, for 202 yards and two scores (Next Gen Stats).

Christian McCaffrey totaled 117 rushing yards against the Colts, gaining 102 of those yards with Kyle Juszczyk on the field.

He averaged 6.8 yards per carry in fullback sets compared to just 2.5 otherwise. McCaffrey also caught two touchdowns on targets beyond the line of scrimmage and has now totaled six on the season, the most by a running back since 2019 (Austin Ekeler, 6). He forced a total of seven missed tackles on the night and leads the NFL with 103 entering Week 17, 18 away from the high-water mark since 2018 (Derrick Henry, 121 in 2020), according to Next Gen Stats.

George Kittle also smashed in a plus matchup versus the Colts defense – going 7-115-1 on a team-high eight targets. However, monitor his injury status as he did seem to tweak something late in the game.

San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan said after Monday’s 48-27 win against the Colts that it’s too early to know the severity of Kittle’s ankle injury

Jauan Jennings stole the show in the box score, catching another TD from Purdy (5-71-1).

Kendrick Bourne played ahead of Demarcus Robinson as the 49ers’ No. 2 WR with Ricky Pearsall sidelined. Bourne hit some of his contract incentives last night…but has more with 45 receptions and 600 yards in striking distance. Currently at 36 catches for 526 yards.

LB Tanner Bethune also got banged up in this game in his first game back from injury.

Schedule

Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker finally delivered. 11 carries for 100 yards and 1 TD while adding three catches for 64 yards. KW3 was dealing, playing 44% of the snaps.

Zach Charbonnet stayed involved, playing 56% of the snaps with his one rushing touchdown on one of his nine carries for 32 yards. Also scored that very bizarre two-point conversion.

Walker looked explosive on Thursday night, rushing 11 times for 100 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown in the third quarter, while also adding three receptions for 64 yards. He generated 91 rushing yards after contact, his 3rd-most in a game in his career, and set a career high with 77 yards after the catch. Despite Walker’s efficiency, he continues to split work with Zach Charbonnet, as the backfield was a near 50-50 split again. Walker played on 27 offensive snaps to Charbonnet’s 35.

Over the last five weeks, touches have been 66-51 in favor of KW3. Walker has 13-plus opportunities in eight of his previous nine games, compared to Charbonnet’s five.

Rashid Shaheed delivered a punt return TD and a 31-yard rush but had no catches (1 target). Cooper Kupp lost a fumble. Usage was down for Shaheed as his routes fell back down to 60% behind Kupp.

AJ Barner scored, going 4-49 on six targets. Has produced in both matchups versus the Rams this season and has back-to-back weeks with six targets.

Sam Darnold is 4 passing TDs and 297 yards away from an extra $1M in contract incentives.

Safety Coby Bryant (knee) is expected to miss “some time” based on initial tests. Tariq Woolen also needed to get an MRI after the Rams’ game. Nick Emmanwori also got banged up. Derick Hall is also facing a suspension.

Schedule

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sell Emeka Egbuka

Baker Mayfield averaged a 2.49-second time to throw in Week 16, his 3rd-quickest mark this season.

When getting the ball out under 2.5 seconds, Mayfield completed 11 of 13 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown. His 84.6% completion percentage is his 3rd-highest rate, while his +10.5% completion percentage over expected on such passes is his 2nd-highest rate in a game this season. On throws over 2.5 seconds, he connected on just 7 of 13 attempts for 79 yards, including a game-sealing interception (-12.8% CPOE).

Mike Evans scored and also drew a DPI on Jaycee Horn in the end zone (resulted in a super tilting Sean Tucker red-zone TD on one of his three GL carries).

Besides that, Bucky Irving was the bell cow with 19 carries for 71 yards (one target wiped away on a penalty). Also got tackled at the one-yard line.

He has hovered in this 60% snap range since returning from injury, seizing 18-19 opportunities per game.

Per Next Gen Stats, since returning from injury in Week 13, Irving has just two carries inside the 10-yard line with no touchdowns, while Tucker has logged seven such carries and scored 3 times

Mike Evans led the Bucs with nine targets (5-31-1).

Emeka Egbuka had just two targets but caught one for 40 yards (lead team). Volume has dipped for Egbuka since Evans’ return, but his efficiency has increased.

However, the routes fell even farther this week compared to Week 15. He finished fourth in routes run behind Jalen McMillan. Season lows across the board for Egbuka between targets, routes, and catches. Just a 54% route participation.

This makes Egbuka a boom-or-bust option versus the Dolphins in Week 17.

Sterling Shepard is one catch away from a $125,000 bonus.

Chris Godwin was second with six targets (led team in routes run for the second straight week).

The Bucs lost LB Anthony Nelson to an injury. Haason Reddick also got shaken up at the end of the game.

The Buccaneers still have a lot to play for with a rematch versus Carolina in Week 18. Their offense should rebound versus Miami. However they might be without OT Tristan Wirfs, who has battled injuries all season. Now has a toe injury.

Schedule

Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard recorded 102 rushing yards on 21 carries against the Chiefs’ defense in Week 16. Pollard generated a season-high 101 yards after contact, the most allowed by the Kansas City defense to any running back this season. He also forced eight missed tackles, resulting in 41 additional yards gained on the ground (Next Gen Stats). Also had a TD that was called back on an illegal penalty play. Also fumbled.

Even so… this man has some contract incentives within reach to round out the season-1,110 yards and 7 TDs are well within reach. Currently at 949 rushing yards and 5 TDs.

Pollard is averaging 20 touches per game over the last three weeks.

Tyjae Spears also chipped in 13 carries for 52 yards and scored (five receptions and 3 GL carries).

Chig Okonkwo led the way with eight targets (6-44) for a 29% target share. Curious as he did it on a season-low snap share (46% snap share).

25% target share in the last two games.

Elic Ayomanor led with 58 yards (3 of 4 targets). Chimere Dike also scored (3-40-1) on five targets.

Titans lost another CB, Marcus Harris, due to an injury.

Schedule

Washington Commanders

QB Marcus Mariota was evaluated for a concussion and cleared. He was still listed as questionable with a hand injury, putting his status for next week in question. Josh Johnson is the backup and will start if Mariota cannot go. That is the direction the team is leaning with Mariota not practicing.

Deebo Samuel is two catches away from a 70-catch season (and contract incentive bonus). Also, 61 yards away from another. I tend to be the lowest guy every week on Samuel – four straight games outside the top-40 WRs – but I think he does have a floor this week based on volume and matchup.

Washington also lost two offensive linemen, Sam Cosmi and Brandon Coleman, to head and shin injuries, respectively.

Chris Rodriguez returned to the lineup – carrying the ball 15 times for 63 yards and 1 TD – he scored late after a pass interference call that put the ball at the 3-yard line.

He started and played 52% of the snaps. Bill played just 11 snaps (20%), but he scored early in the game from the goal line. He also had more carries in the first half (8 vs 6).

This backfield is a three-headed mess with roles overlapping. JCM seeing goal-line opportunities makes C-Rod an even tougher click with his dependence on TDs. Both guys had five red zone carries and two at the goal line.

The final box score doesn’t show this as a 50/50 split… since C-Rod had eight carries in the fourth quarter. JCM had zero second-half touches…(bizarre).

The team is super reluctant to turn the keys back to the rookie RB.

Treylon Burks led the Commanders with six targets (also saw an end-zone target). The passing game overall was kept in check (Eagles’ elite pass defense with backup QB is not a recipe for success).

Dallas up next is a great matchup, presuming Mariota can play. Rematch of a Week 7 game (TNF matchup).

Second-year TE Ben Sinnott played a season-high in snaps (69%).

They also lost rookie WR Jaylin Lane and DT Jer’Zhan Newton (concussion). Lane will miss Week 17.

Da’Ron Payne also got hurt toward the end of the game but returned.

Commanders DT Javon Kinlaw and Commanders DB Quan Martin were both ejected after this brawl broke out late in the fourth quarter. TBD if they might get suspended next week.

BWW from Week 8 (Jayden Daniels got hurt mid-way through the game).

Without Deebo Samuel or Terry McLaurin…Chris Moore led the Commanders in snaps/routes, followed by Jaylin Lane. The rookie saw the majority of downfield targets…38% air yards share. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led with a 49% snap share, followed by Jeremy McNichols (36%) and Chris Rodriguez (13%). All three guys had a red zone touch, with C-Rod scoring on his from the 3-yard line.

Even though Croskey-Merritt struggled versus the Cowboys – 13 for 33 yards – a lot of it stemmed from a few negative runs and runs stuffed for no gain.

Still the best Commanders RB by far. And two of his most efficient rushing games came with Mariota under center – 50% success rate or better in both of Mariota’s starts this season. The Commanders also posted a -3% PROE in those two games.

Deebo Samuel missed this game with a heel injury. This is what Samuel does. He starts the season great, gets banged up, and then flames out.

Schedule

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