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Erickson’s Week 6 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Erickson’s Week 6 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 6. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings.

Enjoy!

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Washington at Chicago

  • Washington ranks dead last in yards per completion allowed this season (13.3)
  • Justin Fields ranks 9th in yards per attempt and 7th in aDOT. Good chance that the Bears QB rips off some chunk plays downfield. Considering his rushing production so far this season – 38.6 rushing yards per game, 47 rushing yards over last three games – Fields is a sneaky streaming candidate in a plus-matchup versus a poor pass defense.
  • He has attempted at least 21 passes and averaged 191 passing yards over the last two weeks. Also had a 50-yard TD run wiped off the board due to a penalty.
  • This bodes well for Bears WR Darnell Mooney to have his most productive game to date. He saw three deep targets from Fields in Week 5, but was only able to haul in one for a huge gain. It was a beautiful one-handed grab. With Mooney’s alpha role – 100% route participation, top-5 air yards share – I don’t mind taking a stab at him as a fantasy WR3 with bye weeks ongoing.
  • The Commanders defense is also a tough bunch to run on. No.2 overall in run defense EPA. Doesn’t bode well for David Montgomery to be uber-productive, but his volume as the Bears RB1 will help him as a fantasy RB2. 80% opportunity share in his first game back in Week 6.
  • Washington has one of the worst implied team totals on the slate at 18.75 points. And the Bears pass defense (13th pass defense EPA) is much better than their run defense (29th run defense EPA). Doesn’t necessarily mean Washington will limit passing altogether – top-10 in pass rate on early downs and pass rate over expectation – but it lends itself to a more balanced approach.
  • Potential reason to not go all-in with Wentz as a streaming option for Week 6. The Titans defense has given up big plays all year, which is why Wentz was productive in Week 5. Bears…not so much. They rank 3rd in the fewest air yards faced this season.
  • Chicago’s porous run defense bodes well for projected starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. The Bears defense leads the league in rushing TD percentage allowed and second in rushing yards allowed this season.
  • Start Curtis Samuel. The dude has a super-high floor every single week based on his team-leading 22% target share. But the Bears are also a slot-funnel defense. Starting rookie slot cornerback Kyler Gordon is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per coverage snap this season.
  • The return of Bears stud cornerback Jaylon Johnson also figures to pose problems for Terry McLaurin on the perimeter, making Samuel > McLaurin my stance on the Washington WRs sans Jahan Dotson for Week 6.
  • Terry McLaurin should have been a major benefactor of injuries to Dotson and Logan Thomas, but he finished with 5 catches for 76 scoreless yards on a meager 16% target share in Week 5 – which is his season-long average. Same as Marvin Jones, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool and Russell Gage.

Favorite Props:

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

  • It’s a rematch of a Week 2 contest that saw the Jaguars come away victorious 24-0.
  • Trevor Lawrence completed 25-30 passes for 235 passing yards and two TDs. QB12 on the week.
  • James Robinson was productive – 64 rushing yards and 1 TD – but it came on poor efficiency (sub 3 yards per carry). It will again be a tough matchup on the ground versus a Colts defense that ranks third in run defense EPA. However, Indy ranks third in most yards, 5th in targets and 8th in targets to RB this season. That plays more favorably into Travis Etienne‘s skill set. The 2nd-year back was the more involved receiver in Week 5, seeing 5 targets versus Robinson’s 2. He played a higher snap share (53% vs 40%), ran more routes (54% versus 32%) and played nearly all the downs during the 2-minute drill. 
  • Evan Engram led the team in targets (8) and catches (7). He had 10 targets last week, putting him firmly in the TE streaming conversation. The Colts have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to the TE position this season.
  • Christian Kirk is in a nice bounce-back spot ahead of Week 6 versus the Colts. In their first matchup, Kirk caught 6 passes for 78 yards and 2 TDs.
  • Matt Ryan was abysmal versus the Jaguars in Week 2 – 0 TDs, 3 INTs – but Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both did not play. Pittman still owns an alpha role in the Colts offense – 100% routes run in Week 5, 23% season-long target share – and the matchup is better in Week 6 than last week.
  • But be warned that Pittman is much more in the WR2 territory against the Jaguars, who have clamped down on opposing WR1s this season, allowing the fewest yards per game to their opponent’s No. 1 targets.
  • Colts rookie WR Alec Pierce‘s route participation increased to 75% in Week 5. He’s led the team in targets (21% target share), air yards (33% air yards share), catches (12) and yards (161) in the last two weeks. His snaps should continue to increase at the expense of Parris Campbell.
  • The Jaguars run defense isn’t the same horrible defense it has been in years past, but they have definitely been exposed during the team’s two-game losing streak allowing massive games to Miles Sanders (27-134-2) and Dameon Pierce (26-99-1). The Jags have allowed 3.7 yards per carry ranks 4th-best in the league, but it’s clear that volume backs can overcome Duval’s defensive line.
  • Jonathan Taylor returned to practice on Thursday, so safe to say he needs to be in all starting lineups. He only rushed for 54 yards the last time Indy played Jacksonville, but it came on 6.0 yards per carry.

Favorite Props:

  • Christian Kirk – OVER 55.5 receiving yards
  • Alec Pierce – OVER 48.5 receiving yards (74/game average over last three)
  • Marvin Jones – UNDER 39.5 receiving yards
  • Michael Pittman – UNDER 68.5 receiving yards

San Francisco at Atlanta

  • You could do worse than Jimmy Garoppolo as a streaming quarterback in Week 6. The 8th-highest implied team total on the slate. The Falcons have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Fourth in passing yards allowed (290.2). And Brady ripped them to shreds passing over the middle of the field, which is Garoppolo’s bread and butter. 125.1 passer rating over the middle of the field between 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Much better than the league average. 
  • Jimmy G hit season-highs in passing yards (253) and passing TDs (2) in Week 5.
  • Marcus Mariota adds value with his legs, but he’s still too risky to play against the league’s No. 1-ranked defense against fantasy QBs.
  • San Francisco is also allowing the fewest rushing yards per game this season (71.4 per game). No RB they have faced has surpassed 58 rushing yards this season.
  • Likely going to be tough sledding for Tyler Allgeier, even after he received the majority of touches in the Falcons backfield in Week 5. He’s still a decent RB3 or FLEX option because he could see more work as a receiver, after running a route on 56% of the Falcons’ dropbacks. He caught a screen pass for a solid gain last week, that was taken back due to a penalty. 
  • Atlanta owns the 3rd-worst run defense based on EPA this season. So keep starting Jeff Wilson Jr. as he continues to post numbers as the 49ers RB1. 17 Carries for 120 yards and 1 score in Week 5. 63% opportunity share.
  • But make note of Tevin Coleman‘s role as the RB2 in this offense. Coleman was sprinkled in more with 8 carries for 23 yards. Totaled 11 opportunities with 3 targets (including wheel routes downfield) for a 37% opportunity share. And also earned two carries inside the 10-yard line, one of which he scored on.
  • Deebo Samuel led the team with a 30% target share in Week 5 – but he caught two passes for 20 yards. He also saw three targets inside the 10-yard line. I’d imagine his efficiency bumps back up against the Falcons, who rank 5th in completion rate allowed this season.
  • Brandon Aiyuk actually led the team with 58 receiving yards on just four targets. His role in the offense is great, but his target share over the last two weeks (15%) since George Kittle‘s return has been less than ideal. Aiyuk’s a fringe WR3 play in a plus-matchup.
  • Kittle boasts top-tier route participation – 84% routes run rate in Week 5 – and owns top-tier YAC-ability. Simply too good of a player to consider benching despite his meh production. Since Week 3, Kittle ranks 9th in target share (18%) among TEs. This seems like a probable blow-up spot for Kittle against a Falcons defense that ranks second in targets and fourth in yards to TEs this season. The 49ers were feeding him extremely early against the Panthers, so I’d expect nothing less in an ever better matchup versus the Dirty Birds. 
  • Kyle Pitts has been disappointing this season, but he still owns the second-highest target share among TEs (25%) and air yards share (31%). His limited route participation in Week 4 (60%) could have also been related to his hamstring injury that kept him out of Week 5.
  • Drake London ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only CeeDee Lamb in target share at 34%. Buy low after his back-to-back poor performances. Don’t sit him even amid the brutal matchup.

Favorite Props:

  • Tyler Allgeier – UNDER 46.5 rushing yards
  • Deebo Samuel – OVER 57.5 receiving yards
  • Marcus Mariota – UNDER 197.5 passing yards
  • George Kittle – OVER 44.5 receiving yards

Baltimore at NY Giants

  • The Giants are tied for 1st in the NFL in passing TD percentage allowed this season. This indicates that TD production the Ravens receive will come off Lamar Jackson‘s arm and not necessarily J.K. Dobbins running between the tackles.
  • Dobbins was used sparingly in Baltimore’s last contest playing fewer snaps than Kenyan Drake (42% vs 40%). He totaled just 8 carries out of 14 total RB opportunities.
  • The Giants run defense isn’t great – bottom-7 in rushing yards per game and attempt allowed this season – but Dobbins’ lack of sheer volume limits him to RB2 territory.
  • Darius Slayton was Giants leading receiver in Week 5 – 6 catches for 79 yards on 7 targets. Nobody else had more than 3 receptions. Marcus Johnson ran the most routes.
  • 26% target share for Devin Duvernay without Rashod Bateman in the Week 5 starting lineup. He also led the Ravens with 111 air yards (44% air yards share). WR3 option if Bateman can’t play again.
  • Mark Andrews ranks third in the NFL in target share this season (33%). Why his receiving prop sits at 5.5 receptions is beyond me.

Favorite Props:

  • Daniel Bellinger – UNDER 22.5 receiving yards
  • Darius Slayton – UNDER 35.5 receiving yards
  • Mark Andrews – OVER 5.5 receptions

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh

  • Is it a George Pickens breakout week? You better believe so. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranks fourth in most receiving yards allowed per game to No. 2 WRs (68.9) but ranks second-best in fewest receiving yards allowed to No. 1 WRs (46.2).
  • With Diontae Johnson viewed as the real-life No. 1 WR, we should expect Pickens to produce as the No. 2 – even though he has been Kenny Pickett‘s most productive pass-catcher over the last two weeks. Pickens has 71-plus receiving yards from Pickett in the last two games (185 total) and a 24% average target share (16 targets).
  • Johnson owns just a 20% target share over the last 2 weeks, a far cry from his 33% target share from Weeks 1-3. He also only has 71 receiving yards on 7 catches.
  • The Steelers rank 24th in both passing TD rate and red-zone TD conversion rate this season. Tom Brady got the yardage last week (351 passing yards) with healthy weapons at his disposal, but he only threw 1 TD. That won’t happen two weeks in a row.
  • Sit Najee Harris. Tampa Bay gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the RB position.
  • And the Steelers RB reached just 20 yards on in Week 5. He earned just four targets on 52 attempts from Kenny Pickett. No. 2 RB Jaylen Warren had more targets (5), ran more routes and compiled more yards from scrimmage (63 versus 36). Now Warren did see the majority of his production in fourth-quarter garbage time, but those garbage points still count. And it matters that Harris isn’t out there when the team is trailing by so much – which is likely the case in Week 6 versus the Buccaneers. Harris’ every-down role from 2021 is long gone with the coaches looking to get Warren more involved.
  • Ready the WR cannons: Pittsburgh gives up the most fantasy points to the WR position.
  • Start Chris Godwin: Godwin played just 52% of the snaps in Week 5 going 6-for-6 for 61 yards – 22% target rate per route run. Bucs beat reporters speculated it was due to the Buccaneers playing with a lead. He caught five passes for 58 yards in the first half alone. And when the Falcons battled back in the fourth quarter, Godwin was re-inserted into the lineup. 
  • Pat Freiermuth suffered his 3rd reported concussion on Sunday. I wouldn’t expect him to play in Week 6.

Favorite Props:

  • Diontae Johnson – UNDER 59.5 receiving yards
  • George Pickens – OVER 46.5 receiving yards
  • Tom Brady – OVER 275.5 passing yards

New England at Cleveland

  • Rhamondre Stevenson RB1 szn with Damien Harris out
  • Week 5 usage: 25 carries for 161 yards, 90% snap share, 64% route participation, 100% RB touches in 2nd half
  • Top-5 fantasy RB. The Browns have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs this season. 2nd-worst in run defense EPA.
  • The Patriots have gone super run-heavy over the last two weeks with backup QBs. 60% run rate on early downs for the 3rd-best rush EPA.
  • In Week 5, the Chargers posted the second-highest rush EPA on early downs vs the Browns.
  • In Week 4, the Falcons posted the third-highest rush EPA on early downs vs the Browns. They ran the ball on 70% of their early downs.
  • Amari Cooper owns three top-11 finishes this season and two outside the top 80. Woof. Talk about boom or bust. It’s worth noting that his roller-coaster production is tied to his target volume. 7 or more targets in home games, and he’s smashed. 6 or fewer on the road and he busts. He’s back at home in Week 6, so I think this is a spot you want to play him. The Patriots play a ton of man coverage and that’s when Cooper has been heavily targeted so far this season per Dwain McFarland on Twitter.
  • Cooper faced the Patriots last season and caught five of eight targets for 88 yards on the road.
  • Hunter Henry was decent without Jonnu Smith (4-54 on 5 targets, 24% target share) in Week 5. Played nearly every down (98% snap share) and ran a route on 82% of dropbacks. Good enough by tight end standards to start him in Week 6.
  • Jakobi Meyers picked up where he left off in Week 5 after missing the last two games. 38% target share and 100-plus air yards in a full-time role. Super safe PPR floor every single week.

Cincinnati at New Orleans

  • No team has allowed more targets to No. 1 WRs than the Bengals defense. Bodes well for Michael Thomas and/or Chris Olave, depending on who is able to suit up for Week 6. However, neither guy practiced on Wednesday. Nor did Jarvis Landry or WR/KR Deonte Harty.
  • But be aware that the target volume has not always translated to fantasy success – Cincy ranks No. 1 in allowing the lowest completion rate (57.4%) this season.
  • Ja’Marr Chase saw 3 red-zone targets and ran a route on 100% of Joe Burrow‘s dropbacks on Sunday night football. He also earned a 35% target share with Tee Higgins sidelined early on with an injury. Higgins did not practice on Wednesday due to his ankle injury.
  • Don’t lose faith in Chase after he posted just 50 receiving yards in Week 5 despite the high-end usage. He owns a 28% target share this season and ranks third in the NFL in red-zone targets. He also has three favorable matchups upcoming versus the Saints, Falcons and Browns. New Orleans gives up the 10th most fantasy points to the WR position. They also rank bottom-5 in yards per completion. 
  • Joe Mixon is a volume monster leading the NFL in touches through 5 games (23.2/game). That alone puts him in RB1 territory even against a tough Saints defensive front that ranks No. 1 in run defense EPA. Keep in mind Mixon has not been efficient as a rusher against anyone this season, but still has posted modest production based on his massive workload.
  • Tyler Boyd ran a route in 100% of dropbacks in Week 5 but drew just 4 targets. He might be the perfect sell-high candidate for fantasy managers thinking he will replace an injured Tee Higgins 1-for-1 should Higgins miss Week 6.

Favorite Props:

  • Samaje Perine – UNDER 8.5 receiving yards
  • Ja’Marr Chase – OVER 72.5 receiving yards
  • Taysom Hill – OVER 3 fantasy points 
  • Joe Mixon – UNDER 59.5 rushing yards

Minnesota at Miami

  • SLOG game. Lowest projected pace of play of any game on the slate.
  • Third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson will start. And that suggests that the Dolphins will try to play slow – not ideal for either of Miami’s top-tier WRs.
  • Jaylen Waddle led all Dolphins WRs in snaps (76%) and route participation (83%) but he finished with just three targets in Week 5. They all came in the 4th quarter. Tyreek Hill led the squad with 7 targets catching six in the first half alone. Neither guy finished as a top-30 WR on the week with Thompson under center.
  • Miami’s early down pass rate fell to 38.5% in Week 5 with Thompson at QB. During Weeks 1-4, the Dolphins ranked 12th in neutral script early down pass play rate (56%).
  • The Vikings defense ranks bottom-five versus ancillary WRs in yards and targets, but above average against WR1s and WR2s.
  • Their secondary gives up a lot of completions – the 2nd-highest completion percentage allowed (70%).
  • Thompson – 5.0 yards per attempt ranked dead last among all QBs in Week 5.
  • Hard to bench either Dolphins WR with bye weeks, but swapping one out – especially with Hill’s injury – for a different upside WR3/FLEX option could pay off.
  • Add Myles Gaskin. Raheem Mostert popped up on the injury report this week and Gaskin played more snaps than Chase Edmonds did as the No. 2 RB in Week 5.
  • Tougher matchup than the on-paper stats would suggest. Per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Dolphins are at the fourth-biggest disadvantage when they decide to run.
  • Irv Smith Jr. posted a season-high 70% route participation in Week 5. Stock up for the Vikings tight end. He’s a solid option this week versus the Dolphins. Miami ranks 29th in DVOA and 27th in receiving yards allowed per game to TEs this season.
  • Adam Thielen finished 2nd on the Vikings with 7 targets but totaled just 27 yards on 4 catches in Week 5. The Vikings TD-dependent WR is starting to show his age, ranking 3rd-worst in yards per route run among WRs with at least 30 targets this season.
  • K.J. Osborn could actually be a sneaky option this week. Miami’s defense is allowing more yards per game to WR3s (57.2) than both WR1s and WR2s this season.
  • Dalvin Cook finally didn’t get vultured at the goal line! The Vikings RB compiled 20 touches for 96 yards including 2 rushing TDs in Week 5! But all that glitters is not gold. Alexander Mattison was the more involved receiver (four vs 2 targets) ran as many routes and totaled 12 touches of his own. Cook played just 57% of the snaps while Mattison played 43%. It’s a two-back deployment that we have not ever seen with Cook at any point this season, so it suggests a more committee approach might be brewing in the Vikings backfield. He’s still an RB1, but maybe not a top-5 option like how he is usually viewed.

Favorite Props:

  • Raheem Mostert – UNDER 61.5 rushing yards
  • Jaylen Waddle – UNDER 55.5 receiving yards
  • Dalvin Cook – UNDER 2 receptions
  • Irv Smith Jr. – OVER 29.5 receiving yards

NY Jets at Green Bay

  • RIP Tyler Conklin szn. C.J. Uzomah ran more routes straight up, something we have not seen at all in 2022. Conklin’s route participation fell from 79% to 29% in Week 5. Do not start him. Drop him.
  • In fact, you’d be better off starting C.J. Uzomah who ran a route on 54% of dropbacks and out-snapped Conklin in Week 5.
  • Packers are allowing the second-fewest passing yards (177) overall and fewest targets per game to the WR position this season (15.2).
  • Jets -8% in pass rate over expectation with Zach Wilson under center.
  • In a tough road matchup, you can’t trust any Jets player not named Breece Hall.
  • GB ranks ninth in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing RBs and are allowing the third-most rushing yards before contact per attempt (1.61)
  • Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson are tied for the team lead with 18% target shares over the last two games.
  • Wilson has just 5 catches for 68 yards over that time and ran fewer routes than both Elijah Moore and Davis in Week 5. He also ranks last amongst the three in air yards.
  • Aaron Jones (13 carries, 3 targets, 73% snap share) dominated the backfield over A.J. Dillon (6 carries, no targets, 32% snap share) in Week 5. The positive game script provided no favors for either Packers RB. However, I don’t think that will happen for the second straight week at home versus the Jets.
  • Packers own the 2nd-highest implied team total.
  • The Jets have also allowed over 93 rushing yards to opposing RB1s (Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert) over the last two weeks.
  • Romeo Doubs leads the Packers in receptions over the last three weeks (16), but Allen Lazard has the slightly higher target share (21% vs 20%).
  • Lazard is also soaking up more high-value targets with a team-leading 39% air yards share and 2 red-zone TDs.
  • Don’t get carried away with Randall Cobb, who still ran fewer routes than both Lazard and rookie Romeo Doubs in Week 5.
  • Robert Tonyan played fewer snaps than Marcedes Lewis and failed to crack 60% route participation. His role needs to grow before he can sniff starting fantasy lineups.

Favorite Props:

  • Aaron Jones – UNDER 3 receptions (Has not gone over this number through 5 games)
  • A.J. Dillon – OVER 12.5 rushing attempts
  • Randall Cobb – UNDER 4 receptions
  • Breece Hall – OVER 57.5 rushing yards, 12.5 rushing attempts
  • Tyler Conklin – UNDER 20.5 receiving yards

Carolina at LA Rams

  • DJ Moore has another great matchup but also has a new quarterback under center in PJ Walker. He’s played in two games with Walker the past two seasons to mixed results. Versus the Lions in 2020, Moore posted 127 receiving yards on 7 catches. More recently in 2021, he caught four passes for 24 yards. He’s a back-end WR3 for Week 6.
  • The matchup is superb versus the Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s (106 yard per game).
  • If you have any struggling Rams players, this is the spot to start them. LA boasts the week’s fourth-highest implied team total as 10.5-point favorites versus a Carolina team fresh off firing their head coach.
  • It’s a situation you should have felt better about starting Cam Akers in. Carolina gives up the 7th most fantasy points to the RB position, and Akers continues to get fed touches regardless of how ineffective he has been this season. He saw 100% of the carries in Week 5. But he has been ruled out due to personal reasons. 
  • Darrel Henderson saw more targets (5 vs 1), played more snaps for a second straight week and ran more routes in Week 5. I’d imagine he works on a nearly every-down basis – similar to Week 1 – with Akers inactive. 
  • Christian McCaffrey also has played in one game that Walker has started. He caught 10 passes on 10 targets. 
  • Allen Robinson – 3 catches for 12 yards on 5 targets, can be dropped in shallow leagues. He can’t even out-produce Ben Skowronek, who he is now running fewer routes than.

Favorite Props:

  • Christian McCaffrey – OVER 38.5 receiving yards
  • Matthew Stafford – UNDER 2 passing TDs
  • Darrell Henderson – OVER 11.5 receiving yards
  • Allen Robinson – UNDER 3 receptions

Arizona at Seattle

  • Second-highest projected pace of play on the slate between two teams that rank inside the top-6 in pace. You want to start basically everybody in this game
  • That includes Eno Benjamin, who looks slated for the RB1 role with James Conner banged up.
  • Benjamin totaled 11 touches for 53 yards with Conner (rib) and Darrel Williams also banged up in Week 5. His 56% route participation is encouraging that he will stay involved in the passing game if Conner misses.
  • Benjamin is PFF’s 7th-highest graded rusher this season.
  • And Seattle’s atrocious defense has allowed the most rushing yards per game (170.2).
  • After Rashaad Penny exited Week 5, rookie Ken Walker got the rushing workload including a 69-yard TD run. Finished with 88 rushing yards on just 8 carries. He was not-targeted, but he still ran a route on 43% of dropbacks on a 58% snap share. Traditional pass-catching RB DeeJay Dallas ran a route on just 30% of dropbacks.
  • He’ll be a bellcow with Penny out for the rest of the season.
  • In Rondale Moore’s second game back from injury he ran a route on 91% of dropbacks operating as the team’s true slot receiver. A.J. Green’s active status pushed Moore back inside. Moore earned 8 targets and is WR3/FLEX worthy because of the projected volume he should see in a Cardinals offense that leads the NFL in attempts. Seahawks rookie CB Coby Bryant mans the slot for Seattle and has allowed the league’s highest passer rating when targeted (151.2) this season.
  • Will Dissly out-snapped Noah Fant in Week 5, but Fant ran more routes (18 vs 13). Their usage has flipped-flopped back and forth the past two weeks, making neither a clear-cut standout. But the Cardinals matchup is worth the dice roll; they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Favorite Props:

  • Noah Fant – UNDER 3 receptions

Buffalo at Kansas City

  • Buffalo gives up the 5th fewest fantasy points to the WR position.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has 1 target inside the 10-yard line this season and a 19% target share. He has 8 targets in four of his five games played and is currently the WR50 on the year. Worse than D.J. Moore. Don’t start JuJu.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied Travis Kelce and Smith-Schuster with a team-high 21% target share (8 targets) on Monday Night Football, leading the team with 90 receiving yards (30% air yards share). Kelce caught 4 TDs, but JuJu finished with just three catches for 33 yards across the flat target share.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s horrible usage to start the season finally reared it’s ugly head. He totaled just 12 touches for 35 yards versus the Raiders, seizing an abysmal 52% opportunity share and 43% snap share. He was out-snapped by Jerick McKinnon (53% vs 43%) and rushed for fewer yards (53 vs 15) despite one more carry. He nearly salvaged his day with two TDs, but he fell just short at the 1-yard line twice. His constant involvement near the goal-line keeps him in the RB2 conversation, but I wouldn’t anticipate any huge yardage totals. Buffalo has allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game this season.
  • Devin Singletary only totaled 6 carries in Week 5, with the team winning in blowout fashion. However, his status as the bell-cow in the backfield did not change. 56% route participation (9th) and 62% opportunity share.
  • His constant usage in the passing game figures to be a major part of his fantasy appeal versus the Chiefs defense that bleeds production to RBs through the air. KC has allowed the most catches, targets and yards to RBs this season.
  • Isaiah McKenzie is going to play this week and should be viewed as a WR3 with upside. In his last two healthy games played, McKenzie caught 11 passes for 97 receiving yards on 17% target share.

Favorite Props:

  • Josh Allen – OVER 297.5 passing yards
  • Isaiah McKenzie – OVER 35.5 receiving yards
  • Devin Singletary – OVER 20.5 receiving yards
  • Patrick Mahomes – OVER 298.5 passing yards

Dallas at Philadelphia

  • Start A.J. Brown. He was heavily targeted to start the game – 3 catches for 32 yards on the 1st drive – but didn’t catch a pass after that. But even so, AJB still had more air yards than DeVonta Smith and came up empty-handed on his two red-zone targets.
  • Look for AJB to hit paydirt versus a Dallas defense that has allowed 80% of their TDs to be scored through the air.
  • CeeDee Lamb earned an insane 50% target share in Week 5. But Michael Gallup is staking his claim as a serviceable piece moving forward in Dallas’ offense. 31% target share in Week 5 while running a route on 89% of dropbacks.
  • It’s a tough matchup versus the Eagles, but volume should be there for the taking. The Eagles have faced the 5th-most pass attempts this season.
  • Miles Sanders saw top-tier usage in Week 5. 15 carries to Kenneth Gainwell‘s 3. Also added 3 targets for a 86% opportunity share while running a route on 65% of dropbacks.
  • And most importantly, Sanders earned 3 carries inside the 10-yard line. However, he just didn’t score. That won’t happen every week.
  • Ezekiel Elliott got ALL the run for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. 22 carries for an 85% opportunity share and 65% snap share. But with all the volume, he was left with 78 scoreless yards, less than teammate Tony Pollard.
  • Pollard stole the show with his explosive 57-yard score. Finished with 8 carries for 86 yards.
  • The Eagles are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards before contact this season.
  • The volume won’t stop coming for CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles have allowed the second-most targets to No. 1 WRs this season. Lamb owns a 38% target share and 51% air yards share since Week 2.

Favorite Props:

  • Miles Sanders – UNDER 66.5 rushing yards
  • Ezekiel Elliott – UNDER 55.5 rushing yards, UNDER 2 receptions
  • Noah Brown – UNDER 36.5 receiving yards

Denver at LA Chargers

  • The Broncos running backs split work on Thursday night with Melvin Gordon (56% snap share) and Mike Boone (41%) snap share, each seeing a decent chunk of playing time. MG3 totaled 18 touches – 15 carries, three catches – for 103 yards, while Boone hit 10 touches – 7 carries, 3 catches – for 85 yards.
  • Gordon was the lead back undoubtedly to start the game and the “guy” in the red zone, but the team didn’t shy away from using Boone. They split routes nearly 50/50 with Gordon running 21 to Boone’s 19. The team also randomly threw out Devine Ozigbo on two snaps.
  • After a so-so performance in the box score, I’d sell Gordon now before the backfield becomes a total mess. The team lost starting tackle Garrett Bolles, and Latavius Murray figures to throw a wrench into the backfield pecking order.
  • However, if you have him, you need to start him in a revenge game versus the Chargers. Their defense continues to give up massive production to opposing RBs because they cannot generate penetration up front. They rank dead last in yards allowed before contact.
  • The Chargers rank No. 1 in DVOA against No. 2 WRs this season. Starting slot cornerback Bryce Callahan has done a great job locking down the inside. He has been targeted on just 13% of his targeted routes and ranks first among LA cornerbacks in fewest fantasy points allowed, catch rate and yards per coverage snap this season. So do your best to avoid Jerry Jeudy in lineups. 

Favorite Props:

Jerry Jeudy – UNDER 52.5 receiving yards

Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

CTAs

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