With the fantasy playoffs just ahead, start/sit decisions become even more fraught than usual. One misstep could knock you out of playoff contention and leave you tormented by regret for months.
So let’s not have any of that, OK? Let’s make this a December to remember.
As always, feel free to use the tiered rankings below as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. Rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice
QUARTERBACKS
Check out Fitz’s quarterback rankings here
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (@ CIN)
Jalen Hurts (vs. TEN)
Josh Allen (@ NE)
Joe Burrow (vs. KC)
Justin Herbert (@ LV)
Lamar Jackson (vs. DEN)
Justin Fields (vs. GB)
Tier 2
Tua Tagovailoa (@ SF)
Dak Prescott (vs. IND)
Trevor Lawrence (@ DET)
Geno Smith (@ LAR)
Deshaun Watson (@ HOU)
Tier 3
Derek Carr (vs. LAC)
Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. MIA)
Aaron Rodgers (@ CHI)
Tom Brady (vs. NO)
Kirk Cousins (vs. NYJ)
Tier 4
Jared Goff (vs. JAC)
Mike White (@ MIN)
Marcus Mariota (vs. PIT)
Daniel Jones (vs. WAS)
Kenny Pickett (@ ATL)
Tier 5
Taylor Heinicke (@ NYG)
Ryan Tannehill (@ PHI)
Mac Jones (vs. BUF)
Russell Wilson (@ BAL)
Kyle Allen (vs. CLE)
Matt Ryan (@ DAL)
Andy Dalton (@ TB)
Bryce Perkins (vs. SEA)
Since Week 6, Trevor Lawrence has been QB9 in fantasy points per game (19.2) among quarterbacks with multiple starts. He gets a plum matchup this week against a Lions defense that has been firebombed in the passing game all year. Detroit is allowing 24.6 fantasy points per game to QBs — 3.3 points more than the next-worst defense against quarterbacks, Las Vegas.
My best guess at what we see from Deshaun Watson in his first game back from suspension: fewer than 30 pass attempts and less-than-stellar passing efficiency, but enough rushing production to provide low-end QB1 value in a matchup against his former team, the Texans. Watson looked rusty when we last saw him in the preseason, and no doubt the rust will still be thick when we see him in Week 13. In every full NFL season Watson has played, he’s finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback. Maybe he’ll get back to that point soon, but probably not right away.
Perhaps you’re aware that Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears. If not, he’ll tell you himself. The Bears have given up 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season, the second-highest total in the league, and they just let Jets backup Mike White throw for 315 yards and three touchdowns against them. As disappointing as this season has been by Aaron Rodgers‘ standards, he’s a very playable fantasy option this week.
Since joining the Buccaneers, Tom Brady has made six starts against the Saints, including one playoff start. He’s thrown for more than 239 yards in only one of those outings — Brady had 375 passing yards against New Orleans in Week 8 of 2021 — and he’s averaged 1.5 TD passes and 1.3 interceptions in those games. Dennis Allen, the Saints’ head coach and former defensive coordinator, seems to have Brady’s number. Brady is QB18 in fantasy scoring this season, and this certainly doesn’t seem like a get-right spot for him, facing a Saints defense that’s getting healthier by the week.
Mike White will try to light up another NFC North defense after topping the 300-yard mark against the Bears this week and throwing for three touchdowns. He’ll face a shoddy Vikings pass defense that had given up a league-high 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has the NFL’s fifth-worst opponent passer rating. White was boom-or-bust in his three starts for the Jets last season, and there’s a wide range of outcomes for him, but the favorable matchup makes White a viable Week 13 streaming option.
RUNNING BACKS
Check out Fitz’s running back rankings here
Tier 1
Austin Ekeler (@ LV)
Nick Chubb (@ HOU)
Josh Jacobs (vs. LAC)
Derrick Henry (@ PHI)
Tier 2
Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF)
Jonathan Taylor (@ DAL)
Christian McCaffrey (vs. MIA)
Kenneth Walker (@ LAR)
Joe Mixon (vs. KC)
Saquon Barkley (vs. WAS)
Dalvin Cook (vs. NYJ)
Aaron Jones (@ CHI)
Travis Etienne (@ DET)
Tier 3
Tony Pollard (vs. IND)
Alvin Kamara (@ TB)
Jamaal Williams (vs. JAC)
Rachaad White (vs. NO)
Miles Sanders (vs. TEN)
Dameon Pierce (vs. CLE)
David Montgomery (vs. GB)
Tier 4
Isiah Pacheco (@ CIN)
Brian Robinson (@ NYG)
Najee Harris (@ATL)
Jeff Wilson (@ SF)
Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. PIT)
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. IND)
Devin Singletary (@ NE)
Zonovan Knight (@ MIN)
Kareem Hunt (@ HOU)
Latavius Murray (@ BAL)
Gus Edwards (vs. DEN)
D’Andre Swift (vs. JAC)
Antonio Gibson (@ NYG)
Tier 5
Leonard Fournette (vs. NO)
Kyren Williams (vs. SEA)
A.J. Dillon (@ CHI)
Tyler Allgeier (vs. PIT)
Jaylen Warren (@ATL)
Samaje Perine (vs. KC)
Tier 6
JaMycal Hasty (@ DET)
Cam Akers (vs. SEA)
Jerick McKinnon (@ CIN)
Raheem Mostert (@SF)
Ty Johnson (@ MIN)
Tevin Coleman (vs. MIA)
Kenyan Drake (vs. DEN)
James Cook (@ NE)
Dontrell Hilliard (@ PHI)
I’m assuming that Joe Mixon is going to clear the concussion protocol this week after missing Week 12. If not, Samaje Perine becomes a must-start. Mixon has gotten workhorse usage all season (15.8 carries and 4.1 catches a game. 91.9 yards from scrimmage per game), and with Mixon out last week, Perine had 17-58-1 rushing and 4-35-0 receiving against the Titans. Chiefs-Bengals has the highest Vegas total on the board at 52.5 points, so Cincinnati’s lead running back could be valuable this week, whichever one it turns out to be.
Even if Leonard Fournette returns from a hip pointer this week, Rachaad White may well remain the Buccaneers’ lead back. White has simply been the better player this season. Buccaneers beat writer Greg Auman of the Athletic has predicted that White will continue to get more snaps and touches than Fournette. I don’t love the matchup against the Saints, whose banged-up defense is starting to get healthy again, but I like that White offers dual-threat value as a runner and pass catcher.
On one hand, Dameon Pierce has carried 15 times for 16 yards over his last two games. On the other hand, Pierce has been terrific for most of the season and gets a juicy Week 13 matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and has yielded 13 TD runs to running backs in 11 games. There’s a wide range of potential outcomes for Pierce this week.
Jeff Wilson investors have enjoyed a windfall ever since the veteran RB landed with the Dolphins, for whom he’s scored a touchdown in each of his first three games. But Wilson is outside the top 20 in this week’s RB rankings, partly due to a tough matchup against his old team, the 49ers, who have allowed a league-low 650 rushing yards to RBs this season, partly due to the possibility of Raheem Mostert‘s return from a knee injury that kept him out of action in Week 12.
One of the worst mistakes you can make in fantasy football is to make assumptions about game script. We can use point spreads and other measures of team strengths to assess probabilities of certain outcomes. But if you’re banking on a backup RB getting heavy garbage-time because you expect a game to be a blowout, you’re probably too far out over your skis. That said, I’m violating this principle with Kareem Hunt this week. I suspect that the Browns are going to be somewhat run-heavy because I don’t think they want a rusty Deshaun Watson throwing 40 times in his first game back from suspension. And while I’m not expecting the Browns to blow out the Texans, they’re 7-point favorites and are probably going to have a run-friendly game script against a Houston defense that has given up the most rushing yards to (1,591) and most TD runs (14) to running backs.
Undrafted rookie Zonovan “Bam” Knight had 14-69-0 rushing and 3-24-0 receiving last week in his first NFL game. Michael Carter left that game with an ankle injury, and his status for Week 13 is unclear. Recently acquired James Robinson was a healthy scratch for the Jets last Sunday. Knight may well have a role in the Jets’ backfield this week even if Carter suits up. If Carter doesn’t play, consider Knight a viable RB3.
Since Week 2, D’Andre Swift has averaged 5.0 carries a game. He’s averaging 4.4 targets a game, but he hasn’t been very efficient as a pass catcher this year. Swift is averaging 5.3 yards per target and hasn’t had more than 40 receiving yards in a game all season. I wouldn’t want to use him in fantasy this week unless backed into a corner.
I’m below consensus on A.J. Dillon this week, mostly because I’m not ready to readmit Dillon into the circle of trust after one decent game. Dillon’s 88 yards from scrimmage last week against the Eagles were the most he’s had since Week 1. Dillon’s touchdown vs. Philly was his first since Week 1. He faces a soft Chicago run defense on Sunday, but Dillon is averaging 10.4 carries and 2.5 targets per game, so I’m not expecting a lights-out performance from Quadzilla.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Check out Fitz’s wide receiver rankings here
Tier 1
Davante Adams (vs. LAC)
Justin Jefferson (vs. NYJ)
Tyreek Hill (@ SF)
Stefon Diggs (@ NE)
CeeDee Lamb (vs. IND)
Tier 2
A.J. Brown (vs. TEN)
Jaylen Waddle (@ SF)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. JAC)
Tee Higgins (vs. KC)
Amari Cooper (@ HOU)
Christian Kirk (@ DET)
Ja’Marr Chase (vs. KC)
Chris Godwin (vs. NO)
Tier 3
D.K. Metcalf (@ LAR)
Tyler Lockett (@ LAR)
Keenan Allen (@ LV)
Garrett Wilson (@ MIN)
Mike Evans (vs. NO)
Terry McLaurin (@ NYG)
Brandon Aiyuk (vs. MIA)
Chris Olave (@ TB)
Christian Watson (@ CHI)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ CIN)
DeVonta Smith (vs. TEN)
Joshua Palmer (@ LV)
Allen Lazard (@ CHI)
Gabe Davis (@ NE)
Michael Pittman (@ DAL)
Tier 4
Jakobi Meyers (vs. BUF)
George Pickens (@ ATL)
Zay Jones (@ DET)
Courtland Sutton (@ BAL)
Deebo Samuel (vs. MIA)
Adam Thielen (vs. NYJ)
Diontae Johnson (@ ATL)
Nico Collins (vs. CLE)
Treylon Burks (@ PHI)
Drake London (vs. PIT)
Tyler Boyd (vs. KC)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (@ HOU)
Tier 5
Michael Gallup (vs. IND)
Curtis Samuel (@ NYG)
Mack Hollins (vs. LAC)
Darius Slayton (vs. WAS)
DeAndre Carter (@ LV)
Parris Campbell (@ DAL)
Corey Davis (@ MIN)
Isaiah McKenzie (@ NE)
Jerry Jeudy (@BAL)
Tier 6
Devin Duvernay (vs. DEN)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ CIN)
Chris Moore (vs. CLE)
Demarcus Robinson (vs. DEN)
Jarvis Landry (@ TB)
Van Jefferson (vs. SEA)
Chase Claypool (vs. GB)
Julio Jones (vs. NO)
Robert Woods (@ PHI)
Richie James (vs. WAS)
Marvin Jones (@ DET)
Olamide Zaccheaus (vs. PIT)
Jahan Dotson (@ NYG)
The Christian Watson breakout has had a deleterious effect on Allen Lazard. Over his last three games, Lazard has had 10 catches for 126 yards and no touchdowns. But Lazard’s Week 13 matchup vs. the Bears is irresistible. Chicago’s defense is 31st in DVOA against the pass, and that was with safety Eddie Jackson, who’s now out for the year with a Lisfranc injury. Safety Jaquan Brisker and CB Kyler Gordon missed Week 12 with concussions, and their status for Week 13 is uncertain. Start Lazard this week.
Michael Pittman investors probably have little choice but to start him. I’m not terribly enthusiastic about his Week 13 prospects in a tricky Week 13 matchup against Dallas. Pittman is averaging just 10 yards per catch this year. His average depth of target is 6.5 yards, down from 9.8 yards last year. The touchdown he scored against the Steelers on Monday night was his first TD since Week 1. There’s just not a lot of sizzle here. Pittman is on pace for 105 catches, but it’s mostly been empty volume.
Over the last two weeks, Zay Jones has had 19 catches for 219 yards on 24 targets. I don’t expect him to keep producing at such a torrid pace — or to pass Christian Kirk in the hierarchy of Jaguars WRs — but I’m willing to ride the wave for another week and play Jones against the Lions, who’ve given up the third-most receiving yards and the fifth-most receptions to WRs.
Theoretically, there should be more target volume for Drake London with TE Kyle Pitts out for the year. That didn’t really happen last week in the Falcons’ first game without Pitts. London was targeted on four of Marcus Mariota‘s 25 pass attempts and finished with 2-29-0. It’s been a frustrating year for London investors, but I still think he’s a viable fantasy option this week. He’s up against a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Steelers have given up 15 TD catches to WRs, tied with the Chiefs for most in the league. We just need Marcus Mariota to look London’s way a little more often.
Mack Hollins isn’t a bad option this week. In the three games that Hunter Renfrow has missed, Hollins has 12-133-1 on 20 targets. He’s the WR37 in half-PPR scoring over that stretch. It’s a skinny target tree for the Raiders — mostly Davante Adams, some Hollins, some Foster Moreau, some Josh Jacobs. Chargers-Raiders has a Vegas total of 50.5 points. We could get a shootout, adding to Hollins’ appeal.
Over the first six weeks of the season, Corey Davis was WR32 in half-point PPR scoring. He was averaging 5.5 catches and 58.5 yards per game before spraining his MCL in Week 7. Last week, in his first game back, Davis had 1-9-0 on three targets even though Jets QB Mike White threw for 315 yards and three TDs. Davis did, however, play 43 snaps, while Elijah Moore played only 22. Davis, not Moore, is the No. 2 receiver for the Jets, and he’s going to play a lot of snaps this week against a bad Minnesota pass defense. The Vikings are 27th in DVOA against the pass and have given up a league-high 2,173 receiving yards to wide receivers. They also have health issues at cornerback. Cam Dantzler is on IR, and rookie Andrew Booth is out for the year with a knee injury.
Has Chase Claypool earned fantasy viability with his new team yet? In his first three games with the Bears, Claypool had snap shares below 50%. Last week, he was up to a 67% snap share. But there’s a good chance Trevor Siemian is the Bears’ starting quarterback once again as Justin Fields recovers from a shoulder injury, and Claypool is going up against a Packers defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. In the four games since the trade, Claypool has 7-83-0. I like big, fast receivers, but we need to see some more signs of life here before we buy in.
TIGHT ENDS
Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ CIN)
Tier 2
Mark Andrews (vs. DEN)
Tier 3
George Kittle (vs. MIA)
Dalton Schultz (vs. IND)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. NYJ)
Pat Freiermuth (@ ATL)
Tier 4
Dawson Knox (@ NE)
Cole Kmet (vs. GB)
Hayden Hurst (vs. KC)
Foster Moreau (vs. LAC)
Gerald Everett (@ LV)
Tyler Conklin (@ MIN)
Tyler Higbee (vs. SEA)
Greg Dulcich (@ BAL)
Taysom Hill (@ TB)
Evan Engram (@ DET)
Robert Tonyan (@ CHI)
Harrison Bryant (@ HOU)
Tier 5
Austin Hooper (@ PHI)
Hunter Henry (vs. BUF)
Noah Fant (@ LAR)
Mike Gesicki (@ SF)
Logan Thomas (@ NYG)
Will Dissly (@ LAR)
Jordan Akins (vs. CLE)
Daniel Bellinger (vs. WAS)
Juwan Johnson (@ TB)
Jelani Woods (@ DAL)
Isaiah Likely (vs. DEN)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (@ PHI)
Cameron Brate (vs. NO)
Noah Gray (@ CIN)
As noted by FantasyPoints.com’s Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB), Dalton Schultz is averaging 15.0 PPR fantasy points over the last 10 games he’s played with Dak Prescott, while Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 13.5 FPPG over his last 10 games with Dak. Now seemingly healthy after trying to play through a PCL injury earlier in the season, Schultz is back inside the circle of trust.
Greg Dulcich had a TD catch nullified by a penalty in Week 12. Without the score, he finished with 2-11-0 on three targets. Over his last three games, the rookie has produced just 7-52-0 on 12 targets. As the Denver offense continues to struggle, Dulcich is no longer a must-start.
When he returned from a high-ankle sprain in Week 11, David Njoku had 2-17-0 against the Bills with a 37% snap share. Against the Buccaneers in Week 12, Njoku had an 81% snap share and was good for 5-29-1, highlighted by an acrobatic TD catch against with under a minute left to force overtime in a game the Browns eventually won. It’s safe to put Njoku back in your lineup.
Seattle’s defense has been getting crushed by TEs all season, giving up 13.0 fantasy points per game to the position. But can we trust Tyler Higbee against the Seahawks this week after he was held without a catch in Week 11? Despite the promising matchup, I’m not inclined to trust Higbee when he’s catching passes from backup QB Bryce Perkins.
Jelani Woods has our attention after an 8-98-0 performance against the Steelers on Monday night. But dare we start him in Week 12? Not against a Dallas defense that has yielded only 392 receiving yards and one TD catch to tight ends this season.
Also on the TE watch list: Daniel Bellinger, who’s been out with an eye injury since Week 8. Bellinger had 16-152-2 in his first seven games, and he could play an even bigger role in the passing game down the stretch since injuries have left the Giants so thin at wide receiver.
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