Maybe you’re swaggering into the fantasy playoffs the way Vince McMahon used to swagger down the ramp during the WWE’s Attitude Era. Your team has been a powerhouse all year, and now you’re favored to win the championship.
Maybe you’re humbly crawling into the playoffs, hat in hand, after sneaking into the final spot by the slimmest of margins. Your odds of advancing past Round 1 seem remote.
Or maybe you’re hobbling into the playoffs, ravaged by injuries and wondering how you’re going to field a competitive lineup.
Regardless of your situation, congratulations on making it to the postseason. Whether your team is a 500-pound gorilla or a 5-pound Chihuahua, you’ve managed to survive the rigors of a 14-game regular season, and that’s cause for celebration, even if you don’t expect a long stay in the playoffs.
But that’s the thing about fantasy football … strange things happen. I mean, we’re coming off a week in which Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito were named Players of the Week in their respective conferences. Kyren Williams, who had a consensus preseason ADP of RB71, has an Expert Consensus Ranking of RB3 this week. Some fantasy managers are contemplating the possibility of benching Patrick Mahomes. (More on that last one later.)
Fantasy football is a funny, wildly unpredictable game with a zillion variables. Weirdness abounds. Some of the 500-pound gorillas will fall on their faces this week, and some of the 5-pound Chihuahuas will yap their way into the second round.
I’m convinced that a team of mine from 2007 was the worst team ever to win a fantasy championship. My best player by far was Wes Welker in his breakout season with the Patriots. And mind you, this was a standard-scoring league, which muted Welker’s impact to some degree. The rest of my roster was patched together with papier-mache and chewing gum.
At one point, my team was 3-6 and I had written off the season. I won my last four games because my opponents kept laying eggs, and I stumbled into the playoffs at 7-6.
Then, my opponents kept collapsing at my feet in the playoffs. Throughout that postseason run, my opponents kept losing players to in-game injuries, and very few of my opponents’ stars turned in performances befitting their star status. My mediocre point totals kept pushing me through into the next round, and then somehow my team was the last one standing.
It was the greasiest championship ever, and yet I cherish that title more than the ones I won with championship teams simply because it was so improbable.
There will be shocking playoff upsets in fantasy leagues across the country this weekend. Some heavy underdogs will have everything go right, and some big favorites will have everything go haywire. Like I said, fantasy football is a funny game.
To the gorillas and Chihuahuas alike, I wish you well in your championship quest. Now, let’s work on setting those lineups.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 15 Tiers & Rankings
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Desmond Ridder
- Will Levis
- Derek Carr
- Zach Wilson
- Mitch Trubisky
- Aidan O’Connell
- Tommy DeVito
- Bryce Young
- Nick Mullens
- Davis Mills
- Bailey Zappe
- Easton Stick
Fantasy seasons take all sort of strange twists and turns, but I couldn’t have imagined that people would be asking me in December whether they should bench Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ passing game has been uncharacteristically disjointed since Late October. Over his last six games, Mahomes is averaging 230.2 passing yards and 1.3 touchdown passes per game, and 6.25 yards per pass attempt. He’s QB22 in fantasy points per game during that stretch among QBs who played at least three games, behind the likes of Baker Mayfield and Joshua Dobbs. Mahomes’ passer rating over that stretch is 83.9. For sake of comparison, Kenny Pickett‘s passer rating this season is 81.4. I’m not part of the “start your studs no matter what” crowd. I am, however, a devout believer in Mahomes’ talent, and I’m not scared of a matchup against a New England defense that ranks 21st in DVOA vs. the pass. My take on the Kansas City offense, for what it’s worth, is that the Chiefs’ passing game is struggling because it has no real wide receivers. That includes Rashee Rice, a gadget-type receiver who needs to be schemed easy targets that let him make yardage after the catch. He hasn’t demonstrated that he can consistently get open downfield on his own. As for Mahomes, I wouldn’t say I’d start him unconditionally this week, but I have him ranked QB6 and would start him under most circumstance.
Jordan Love laid an egg against the Giants on Monday night, but don’t let that deter you from rolling out Love in a home matchup against the Buccaneers. Until his clunker against the Giants, Love had produced multiple touchdown passes and at least 267 passing yards in four consecutive games. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and just gave up 347 passing yards to Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder.
I’m nervous about Tua Tagovailoa this week. He has a hellish matchup against a Jets defense that’s giving up 13.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. WR Tyreek Hill is dealing with an ankle injury, and Miami’s offensive line is banged up. For one of the first times all season, I do not have Tua ranked in QB1 range, slotting him in at QB13.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Zack Moss
- Austin Ekeler
- Raheem Mostert
- Travis Etienne
- Saquon Barkley
- De’Von Achane
- Derrick Henry
- Joe Mixon
- Breece Hall
- Javonte Williams
- David Montgomery
- Ezekiel Elliott
- James Cook
Tier 4
- D’Andre Swift
- Chuba Hubbard
- Jerome Ford
- Ty Chandler
- Jaylen Warren
- Kenneth Walker
- Najee Harris
- James Conner
Tier 5
- Antonio Gibson
- Zamir White
- Keaton Mitchell
- Gus Edwards
- A.J. Dillon
- D’Onta Foreman
- Devin Singletary
- Jerick McKinnon
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Aaron Jones
Tier 6
- Tyjae Spears
- Zach Charbonnet
- Kareem Hunt
- Jamaal Williams
- Tyler Allgeier
- Miles Sanders
- Rico Dowdle
- Chase Brown
- Dameon Pierce
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Khalil Herbert
- Roschon Johnson
- Latavius Murray
With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) sidelined last week, Ezekiel Elliott had a 91% snap share, 29 touches, 140 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown vs. the Steelers. I don’t know how long he’ll survive if he keeps getting such heavy workloads, but his investors had to be delighted with his Week 14 usage. Zeke is a midrange RB2 this week for an appealing matchup with the Chiefs, whose defense is tough against the pass but ranks 30th in DVOA against the run.
Jerome Ford was a tricky player to rank this week, and I suspect he’ll pose a start/sit dilemma for many fantasy managers. Ford has logged 12 or fewer carries in four consecutive games. Granted, the Browns had a pair of 17-point losses during that stretch, and Ford had nine carries in each of those games. You would expect fewer-than-normal carries in a three-score loss. But the Browns had one-score wins over the Steelers in Week 11 and Jaguars on Week 14, and Ford still had only 12 carries in each of those games. Kareem Hunt poaches short-range touchdowns, which Ford investors are never happy to see. But Ford does get pretty steady usage on the passing game. Since the beginning of November, he’s averaging 4.8 targets, 3.3 receptions and 20.2 receiving yards per game. That could definitely help him this week. Ford is going up against a very good Bears run defense that has given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards to RBs. But Chicago has allowed a league-high 748 receiving yards to RBs this season, which helps make Ford at least flex-worthy.
Kenneth Walker is sharing work with rookie Zach Charbonnet, but Walker had a 56% snap share last week, and it seems as if he still outranks Charbonnet in the Seattle backfield. Walker had only eight carries for 21 yards against a tough San Francisco run defense last week, but he salvaged an otherwise disappointing fantasy day by catching four passes for 33 yards — including a memorable catch-and-run where he reversed field and seemingly broke two dozen tackles in the process. I don’t want to make the assessment of Walker’s fantasy outlook all about his situation; we also need to factor in skill level, and Walker is a terrific player. He faces an Eagles defense that might not be as good as some of the numbers suggest. The Eagles are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs, but the Philly run D has slipped of late. In the Eagles’ first nine games of the season, only one of their opponents had 100 rushing yards as a team. The Eagles were giving up 66.3 rushing yards per game before their Week 10 bye. Since coming out of the bye, the Eagles have given up more than 100 rushing yards in all four of their games, and opponents are averaging 156.3 rushing yards per game. I do not fear this matchup for Walker, ranking him as a high-end RB3.
James Conner is coming off a 100-yard, two-touchdown rushing day against the Steelers back in Week 13, before the Cardinals went on bye. Conner had a season-high 25 carries in that game. But Conner has played nine games this season, and he’s had 20 or more carries twice. In the other seven games, he’s had 16 or fewer carries, and in six of those games he’s had 14 or fewer carries. It averages out to 14.3 carries a game for Conner this season. That’s solid usage, but it falls below the threshold for the definition of “workhorse.” What worries me is that Conner is a zero in the passing game: He has 14 catches for 36 yards and no touchdowns this season. So whatever Conner is going to do for you this week, he’ll have to do it on the ground, and he’ll be going up against a San Francisco defense that has allowed a league-low 743 rushing yards and only five TD runs to running backs. The Cardinals are nearly two-touchdown underdogs to the 49ers, so Conner probably isn’t getting a very run-friendly game script. I’m more than a little concerned about his fantasy outlook for Week 15.
Keaton Mitchell simply isn’t a comfortable fantasy play this week — or any week, really. Since Week 9, when the Ravens started using him every week, Mitchell is RB30 in fantasy points per game. Mitchell still hasn’t had double-digit carries in a game this season, and last week against the Rams, Mitchell only played about a third of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. There’s certainly big-play upside with Mitchell, but if he doesn’t connect for any big plays this week against a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in DVOA against the run, you could get a very disappointing fantasy day, because the touch volume just isn’t there.
The Bears have been deploying their top three running backs in unpredictable ways, but I’m now working under the assumption that D’Onta Foreman is Chicago’s lead back, and that Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson aren’t viable fantasy options. Last week against the Lions, Foreman had a 54.9% snap share, 11 carries and three targets. Herbert and Johnson had four carries between them, and Foreman played seven more snaps than Roschon and Herbert combined. And this was with Foreman coming back from an injury. Foreman’s Week 15 matchup against the Browns is a tricky one, but Foreman might still have flex-worthiness in deeper leagues.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Michael Pittman
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Stefon Diggs
- Mike Evans
- Deebo Samuel
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Justin Jefferson
- D.J. Moore
- Puka Nacua
- Brandon Aiyuk
- D.K. Metcalf
- Cooper Kupp
Tier 3
- Davante Adams
- DeVonta Smith
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Courtland Sutton
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
- Jaylen Waddle
- Rashee Rice
- Amari Cooper
- Zay Flowers
Tier 4
- Drake London
- Calvin Ridley
- Jayden Reed
- Terry McLaurin
- Tyler Lockett
- Adam Thielen
- Diontae Johnson
- Odell Beckham Jr.
Tier 5
- Jakobi Meyers
- Tee Higgins
- Chris Godwin
- Brandin Cooks
- Zay Jones
- Elijah Moore
- Romeo Doubs
- Jordan Addison
- Josh Downs
- Marquise Brown
Tier 6
- Curtis Samuel
- George Pickens
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Noah Brown
- Gabe Davis
- Jerry Jeudy
- Demario Douglas
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Rashid Shaheed
- Joshua Palmer
Tier 7
- Jonathan Mingo
- Jahan Dotson
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Khalil Shakir
- Jameson Williams
- Justin Watson
- Tyler Boyd
- Jalin Hyatt
- Xavier Hutchinson
- Alec Pierce
- Robert Woods
- K.J. Osborn
- Nelson Agholor
- Quentin Johnston
- Demarcus Robinson
- Rashod Bateman
- Darius Slayton
- Darnell Mooney
It was just a week ago that people were wondering if Cooper Kupp was dust. He’d had six straight games with fewer than 50 receiving yards. Then, last week, in a seemingly bad matchup against the Ravens in rainy weather, Kupp had eight catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. Now, he gets a plum of a matchup against a dreadful Washington pass defense. The Commanders have given up 9.8 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. The Commanders’ cornerbacks can’t cover, and Washington no longer has a pass rush after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline. The current FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking for Kupp is WR5. That seems like an overly aggressive ranking for a player who’s gone through some uncharacteristic struggles of late, but I still have Kupp ranked as a high-end WR2, and it’s a pretty easy call to start him this week.
If someone had told you before the season that Sam Howell would lead the NFL in pass attempts and completions through 14 weeks, where would you have drafted Terry McLaurin? Probably pretty early, right? It’s wild that the Commanders have been so pass-heavy and yet McLaurin is still only WR37 in PPR fantasy scoring despite missing no games due to injury. McLaurin hasn’t had double-digit PPR points in a game since Week 9. His matchup against the Rams this week is neutral at best. Start McLaurin if you must, but hopefully you have better options.
A recent uptick in Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s usage has drained a little bit of fantasy value from Tyler Lockett, but Lockett’s floor is still relatively stable. The 31-year-old Lockett hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in a game since Week 2, and he’s averaging 7.2 targets, 5.4 catches and 61.8 yards over his last five games. Those are WR3 numbers to begin with, and Lockett gets a great matchup against a flammable Eagles pass defense that’s giving up a league-high 39.1 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Lockett is a solid fantasy play this week.
It’s December 2023, and we can once again feel good about having Odell Beckham Jr. in our fantasy lineups. Huzzah! Remember OBJ’s run with the Rams in 2021 that ended with him tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl? Beckham averaged 11.3 yards per catch and only 38.1 receiving yards in eight regular-season games with the Rams. He was extremely TD-dependent, with five touchdowns in eight games. But this year, Beckham is hitting on some big plays. He’s averaging 16.3 yards per catch and has an average depth of target of 13.6 yards.OBJ had a season-high 10 targets vs. the Rams last week and finished with 97 yards and a touchdown. Beckham had 218 air yards in that game. Now, he gets a nice Week 15 matchup against a struggling Jacksonville pass defense that has been torched by QBs Jake Browning and Joe Flacco the last two weeks.
I’m way above consensus on Elijah Moore, who has an Expert Consensus ranking of WR50 but checks in at WR39 in my rankings. In two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback, Elijah Moore has 18 targets and 334 air yards. Granted, 255 of those air yards came in Week 14, when Amari Cooper got hurt in the first half. But it’s encouraging that the Browns are letting Flacco air it out. He’s had 44 and 45 pass attempts in his two starts for Cleveland. It’s hard to run on the Chicago Bears, so the Browns might be pass-heavy again this week. I think Elijah Moore is a sneaky-good fantasy play for Week 15.
Tee Higgins has a reasonably good matchup against the Vikings, and Bengals QB Jake Browning has proven to be a competent replacement for the injured Joe Burrow, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting Higgins in my lineup this week. Since coming back from a hamstring injury, Higgins has drawn seven targets in two targets — which works out to an 11.5% target share. In nine games this season, Higgins has scored double-digit fantasy points three times, and he’s scored 7 or fewer PPR points five times. There’s no denying that Higgins is a talented receiver, but he has a wide range of outcomes, and that range includes an uncomfortably low floor.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Evan Engram
- Dalton Kincaid
- Jake Ferguson
- David Njoku
- Isaiah Likely
- Dallas Goedert
- Taysom Hill
- Cole Kmet
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Hunter Henry
- Darren Waller
- Tyler Higbee
- Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Tyler Conklin
- Dalton Schultz
- Gerald Everett
- Michael Mayer
Tier 6
- Jonnu Smith
- Tanner Hudson
- Noah Fant
- Dawson Knox
- Juwan Johnson
- Brevin Jordan
- Donald Parham Jr.
- Kylen Granson
In the Jaguars’ first game since losing WR Christian Kirk to a core injury, Evan Engram drew a season-high 12 targets and had 11 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns — good for 32.5 PPR points and TE1 status for the week. Engram has a tricky Week 15 matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the eight-fewest receiving yards and eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but Kirk’s injury should continue to funnel extra targets in Engram’s direction and inflate his fantasy value.
David Njoku has become something close to a must-start. The seventh-year veteran has seen 38 targets over his last four games and is the TE4 in PPR scoring over that stretch. He hung 91 yards and two touchdowns on the Jaguars last week. Now, he gets a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has become increasingly tough against wide receivers but has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. You can feel good about penciling Njoku into your playoff lineup.
Taysom Hill is expected to be back in action for the Saints after missing Week 14 with foot and hand injuries. Hill isn’t a bad option this week against the Giants. We know that Hill is a pseudo-TE who does most of his damage as a runner, and he’ll be facing a Giants defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run.
Hunter Henry had two TD catches in Week 14, but don’t bother chasing last week’s points. Henry hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game since Week 4. Over his last nine outings, Henry is averaging 3.2 targets, 2.0 receptions and 19.7 yards per game. No thanks.
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