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Air Yard Analysis: Week 7 (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Oct 29, 2020

Welcome to Air Yard Analysis! Each week, I’ll break down the trends in air yards across the NFL. In case you haven’t used air yards for fantasy analysis before, here’s the rundown on what the advanced stat means:

Fantasy football is a game of volume. Snaps, carries, targets, receptions, yards, red-zone looks — all of these reflect the opportunities a player receives in a game. While it’s up to the player to capitalize on their chances, a player’s efficiency tends to vary more than their opportunities.

Air yards are another volume stat that’s crucial to understanding a player’s value. Air yards measure the total distance that a thrown ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the player in question, and they help us to understand which targets are worth more than others.

For example, a wide receiver who earned six targets and eight air yards is far less valuable than one who earned four targets and 92 air yards, even if the second player failed to catch all of their looks. That’s because a best-possible six receptions for eight yards gives you only 6.8 PPR points, while four catches for 92 yards would let you 13.2 PPR points. That’s a higher ceiling, and the second player could even drop a pass and still out-perform the first player.

Each week, I’ll read through and analyze every team’s air yards to give you my take. I’ll include every player with a target in my charts, and I’ll highlight which players are leading the league in each stat.

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Arizona Cardinals

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
DeAndre Hopkins 160 (#4) 14.5 654 (#9) 9.1
Christian Kirk 70 8.8 448 14.5
Dan Arnold 59 19.7 145 10.4
Larry Fitzgerald 38 4.8 182 5.1
Andy Isabella 36 12 280 15.6
Darrell Daniels 15 15 43 6.1
Chase Edmonds 7 1 68 2.2
Kenyan Drake -2 -1 -12 -1.2


Takeaways
: Hopkins is the alpha receiver in this offense, so expect to see him lead the team in air yards more often than not … Kirk and Isabella saw targets closer to the line of scrimmage than they usually get … there’s not a lot of data from which to draw conclusions here, but it seems like the Cardinals will feature further downfield when he has easier competition, and they’ll pivot to their ancillary weapons (Kirk, Isabella) when draws better coverage … I say this every week, but Edmonds’ usage beyond the line of scrimmage adds to his value in PPR formats.


Atlanta Falcons

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Calvin Ridley 95 13.6 931 (#1) 14.8
Julio Jones 75 8.3 434 11.1
Hayden Hurst 49 7 387 9.7
Russell Gage 45 6.4 333 8.1
Brandon Powell 10 5 57 8.1
Todd Gurley 8 2.7 8 0.4
Brian Hill 2 0.7 15 0.9
Ito Smith 2 2 3 0.3
Luke Stocker 1 1 10 2.5


Takeaways
: Despite missing a good chunk of the season, Jones ranks second on this team in air yards — that’s a testament to his high-volume role in this offense … Ridley continues to lead the league in air yards, and he’s getting the perfect combination of mid-range looks and tons of targets to post WR1 numbers … Hurst and Gage are fringe starters; they haven’t gotten enough volume in regular game scripts to be worth consistently starting … interestingly, every single Atlanta running back has positive air yards — Gurley is the only fantasy-relevant one, but his passing-down usage makes him an even safer start in PPR.


Buffalo Bills

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Stefon Diggs 124 10.3 761 (#4) 10.9
Cole Beasley 69 5.8 372 7.6
Gabriel Davis 43 14.3 276 13.1
Tyler Kroft 39 9.8 112 8
Reggie Gilliam 7 7 8 4
Zack Moss 4 1.3 12 1.7
Isaiah McKenzie 0 0 -8 -0.5
Devin Singletary -8 -1.6 29 1


Takeaways
: The Bills were without John Brown again this week, and though Gabriel Davis was penciled in for a bigger role by some, it didn’t really come to fruition … Diggs drew mot of the volume, as per usual, and he’ll get even more of it until Brown is fully recovered — he’s a locked-in WR1 almost every game, although the matchup against Stephon Gilmore this week could cause some problems … Cole Beasley has tons of value as a volume-dependent WR3/flex option in PPR formats, but he needs lots of looks to return value given his short-range usage … Moss saw three targets and averaged a positive aDOT, while Singletary was only used behind the line — that said, Singletary’s season-long aDOT suggests regression is on the horizon.


Carolina Panthers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Robby Anderson 106 13.2 609 10.3
D.J. Moore 68 13.6 627 12.1
Curtis Samuel 17 2.8 159 5.5
Ian Thomas 7 7 73 6.1
Brandon Zylstra -1 -1 -1 -1
Mike Davis -9 -1.8 -37 -0.9


Takeaways
: Although D.J. Moore has posted some strong fantasy numbers of late, Robby Anderson runs this offense … Moore’s big-play ability gives him tons of upside, but he hasn’t seen the volume to be the consistent low-end WR1 that some managers drafted him to be … Curtis Samuel has broken into a larger role of late, but his plays force him to gain yards after the catch, not before, which caps his fantasy value.


Chicago Bears

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Darnell Mooney 153 (#5) 21.9 (#10) 561 15.2
Allen Robinson 65 16.2 730 (#5) 10.6
Anthony Miller 61 12.2 351 11.3
Javon Wims 48 24 (#8) 87 12.4
Cole Kmet 32 16 80 11.4
Jimmy Graham 25 4.2 272 6.5
Demetrius Harris 9 3 94 7.2
Cordarrelle Patterson 8 2 52 4
David Montgomery -6 -1.2 32 1


Takeaways
: It’s Mooney time — with Allen Robison in the concussion protocol, Mooney should see even more volume than normal … with his long-range aDOT, he’ll only need to make a few big plays to pay off big-time for your fantasy roster … that said, the fact that Robinson ranks fifth in air yards thus far is commendable given his poor quarterback play — the dude may not be able to catch every pass, but he finds ways to get open downfield … Kmet and Harris aren’t going away, and their presence limits Jimmy Graham’s floor.


Cincinnati Bengals

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
A.J. Green 183 (#2) 14.1 842 (#2) 14.5
Tee Higgins 107 17.8 574 13.7
Tyler Boyd 72 5.5 520 8.5
Mike Thomas 52 17.3 143 8.4
Drew Sample 22 3.7 112 4.5
Samaje Perine -5 -5 -5 -5
Giovani Bernard -13 -2.6 -6 -0.2


Takeaways
: A.J. Green has started to right the ship, finally … after weeks of inefficient play, he’s begun to capitalize on the opportunities given to him by Joe Burrow — he had 119 total receiving yards after Week 5, but he’s now up to 297 (+178) … Higgins is the alternate downfield threat, and as long as the Bengals continue to pass at league-high rates, he’ll retain value alongside Green … while Boyd only has a short-yardage role, he earns so much volume as the team’s slot receiver that he’s a must-start every week.


Cleveland Browns

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Rashard Higgins 101 16.8 167 13.9
Donovan Peoples-Jones 51 17 55 13.8
Harrison Bryant 47 9.4 135 7.5
David Njoku 43 14.3 98 9.8
Odell Beckham Jr. 35 35 (#4) 566 13.8
Jarvis Landry 22 3.7 341 9
Kareem Hunt -14 -3.5 48 2.1


Takeaways
: Since Beckham went down early, we got a taste of this offense without him, so these numbers are pretty significant … Higgins led the team in air yards, and both he and Peoples-Jones had significant downfield roles … you can read more about Higgins here … Bryant and Njoku placed third and fourth, respectively, but their fantasy value won’t last, as Austin Hooper should be recovered from appendicitis soon … here’s the most important takeaway: Jarvis Landry still got lots of targets, but his short-yardage role meant that he finished with fewer air yards than Beckham! Landry needs lots of volume to be relevant, and in a run-heavy offense, he doesn’t have much upside.


Dallas Cowboys

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Amari Cooper 59 8.4 628 (#10) 8.7
CeeDee Lamb 43 8.6 514 9.5
Michael Gallup 35 11.7 563 15.6
Dalton Schultz 13 4.3 248 6.4
Ezekiel Elliott 1 0.5 -29 -0.6
Tony Pollard 0 0 -24 -1.6


Takeaways
: The Dallas Cowboys are a mess without Dak Prescott … we still don’t know who will start this weekend, but none of Dallas’ backups will be able to bring this offense back to the level it was once at … Cooper is the safest of the bunch, as he’s lucky enough to be in a high-volume role … Lamb is a close second, although he’ll need to do a better job of catching passes if he wants to remain on fantasy rosters … neither Gallup nor Schultz are worth holding on to at this point.


Denver Broncos

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Noah Fant 67 9.6 231 7
Jerry Jeudy 57 14.2 486 13.9
Tim Patrick 46 11.5 520 15.8
Tyrie Cleveland 26 26 (#7) 24 12
Nick Vannett 20 6.7 62 6.2
Albert Okwuegbunam 19 2.7 104 8
K.J. Hamler 17 5.7 182 12.1
DaeSean Hamilton 15 5 254 16.9
Melvin Gordon 0 0 18 0.9
Royce Freeman -4 -2 12 1.5


Takeaways
: A week after Tim Patrick was hyped as the next big thing, Noah Fant returned and led this team in air yards … while his season-long aDOT suggests that this game was an outlier, it’s troubling that Patrick got such a low percentage of the team’s air yards … Jeudy is the highest-upside receiver in this offense due to his downfield role … Hamler will need to see a lot more targets if he’s going to return value on his short-yardage role.


Detroit Lions

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Kenny Golladay 123 17.6 405 14.5
Marvin Jones 73 12.2 326 10.9
T.J. Hockenson 54 9 224 7.2
Marvin Hall 45 45 (#1) 221 31.6 (#2)
Danny Amendola 42 10.5 271 10
Isaac Nauta 3 3 3 3
D’Andre Swift 1 0.2 57 2.3
Adrian Peterson 0 0 6 0.8
Jamal Agnew -2 -2 31 3.4


Takeaways
: I could remind you that Golladay is the alpha receiver in this offense, but you already know that … instead, let’s talk about Marvin Jones, who is struggling through a pretty miserable season … I can identify at least two causes of his regression: first, his 2019 catch rate was much higher than the norm, and he’s fallen back to the mean in 2020; second, the emergence of Marvin Hall … Hall doesn’t get many targets, but his 221 air yards may have gone in Jones’ direction if Hall were not in an expanded role …  Amendola doesn’t have enough floor with Golladay active to warrant a roster spot.


Green Bay Packers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Davante Adams 136 (#8) 8.5 388 8.4
Marcedes Lewis 32 10.7 80 10
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 29 9.7 585 17.7 (#9)
Robert Tonyan 27 13.5 178 8.9
Darrius Shepherd 14 14 111 18.5 (#8)
Jace Sternberger 0 0 43 6.1
Malik Taylor -3 -1.5 19 4.8
Jamaal Williams -4 -0.8 18 0.9


Takeaways
: I don’t want to talk about Davante Adams, and if you frequent Reddit, you know why … I’ll admit that my model was too low on him last week, especially because I didn’t find a good way for it to quantify Aaron Jones’ absence, but Adams is more target-dependent than most fantasy WR1s … of course, he’ll see plenty of looks now since he’s Aaron Rodgers’ number-one weapon (and especially while Allen Lazard is sidelined), but his short-range aDOT means that a run-heavy game script would hit him harder than other elite receivers … none of the other receiving weapons on this roster are worth considering except Tonyan, who is a solid streamer at tight end, and MVS, who offers upside that depends on his ability to make a long-range catch.


Houston Texans

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Randall Cobb 85 8.5 272 7.2
Brandin Cooks 61 6.8 517 10.6
Will Fuller 53 8.8 663 (#8) 13.5
Kenny Stills 49 12.2 232 12.9
David Johnson 10 2.5 103 4.3
Duke Johnson 1 0.2 14 1.1


Takeaways
: Hot take: Cobb won’t lead this offense in air yards again … he’s usually a short-range weapon, and he was again this week, but he had the benefit of Cooks and Fuller not getting used past the first-down marker very often … Fuller should bounce-back handily against the Raiders this week … David Johnson’s continued usage beyond the line of scrimmage makes him a valuable fantasy asset.


Jacksonville Jaguars

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
D.J. Chark 118 16.9 549 13.4
Chris Conley 63 31.5 (#6) 365 14.6
James O’Shaughnessy 25 8.3 117 6.5
Keelan Cole 18 9 466 11.9
Laviska Shenault Jr. 13 4.3 215 5.7
Collin Johnson 10 10 96 8.7
James Robinson -2 -0.3 -26 -0.8


Takeaways
: A week after leading the league in air yards and targets (and not posting impressive fantasy numbers while doing so), Chark failed to crack the top-10 in air yards and caught just one of his seven targets … Chark only logged one (limited) practice session before last week’s game, however, so let him get healthy before you get too concerned … after a solid start to the season, some of these weapons have lost their luster … Swiss-Army Knife Laviska Shenault’s aDOT has tumbled, and his fantasy value has fallen along with it … Cole is a short-range weapon who depends on volume to succeed, and in weeks where Gardner Minshew doesn’t frequently throw his way (like last week), he’ll bust.


Kansas City Chiefs

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Tyreek Hill 103 10.3 683 (#6) 14.2
Mecole Hardman 41 20.5 216 10.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 19 4.8 31 0.9
Nick Keizer 12 6 44 8.8
Demarcus Robinson 4 4 187 8.9
Marcus Kemp 2 2 2 2
DeAndre Washington 1 1 1 1
Travis Kelce -1 -0.3 420 7.5


Takeaways
: Hill continues to be a dominant force downfield, but you didn’t need this data to know that … what’s interesting here is that Mecole Hardman’s aDOT has finally moved into the double-digits — after some short-yardage plays to get him in space at the start of the year, his long-range looks have finally pushed his aDOT up … a week after getting all of Sammy Watkins’ volume, Robinson saw his role dry up — he could bounce back against the Jets if Patrick Mahomes looks his way early, but he’ll get phased out of the game script as the Chiefs build their lead … Travis Kelce had an outlier game in terms of his usage, and he should return to being a mid-range weapon next week.


Los Angeles Rams

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Josh Reynolds 139 (#7) 17.4 397 14.2
Robert Woods 44 8.8 387 8.2
Cooper Kupp 26 3.7 342 6.7
Gerald Everett 19 3.8 107 5.9
Van Jefferson 14 14 161 14.6
Johnny Mundt 4 1.3 6 1.5
Malcolm Brown 4 4 -11 -0.6
Darrell Henderson -1 -0.5 16 1.2


Takeaways
: Just as everyone expected, Josh Reynolds paced the Rams in air yards this week … he now leads the team in the statistic, which isn’t a good sign for either Woods or Kupp — no, I’m not saying that Reynolds will replace them; rather, I’m highlighting how little down-field usage Woods and Kupp get in this offense … both are little more than volume-driven options that will depend on touchdowns, trick plays, or the occasional long-range touchdown to hit value.


Los Angeles Chargers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Keenan Allen 116 8.9 526 8.5
Jalen Guyton 54 18 295 22.7 (#4)
Hunter Henry 47 6.7 321 8
Tyron Johnson 44 44 (#2) 93 46.5 (#1)
Virgil Green 43 21.5 60 10
Mike Williams 42 14 421 16.8
Donald Parham 22 22 (#9) 57 19 (#7)
Gabe Nabers 2 2 4 2
Joshua Kelley -6 -1.2 -17 -1.2
Justin Jackson -25 -4.2 -41 -2.9


Takeaways
: Justin Herbert has a cannon for an arm, and it really shows up in this chart — two of his one-target receivers were top-10 in aDOT for the week, while three of them are top-10 in aDOT on the year … while Guyton, Johnson, and Parham don’t get the consistent usage required to be reliable fantasy contributors, they boost Herbert into QB1 territory … Mike Williams had a down week, and the presence of those other deep threats is concerning, but it’s safe to expect a rebound performance from him shortly.


Las Vegas Raiders

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Nelson Agholor 134 (#9) 14.9 274 13.7
Darren Waller 49 5.4 322 5.9
Henry Ruggs III 44 14.7 277 19.8 (#6)
Rico Gafford 41 41 (#3) 63 31.5 (#3)
Hunter Renfrow 29 4.8 269 9
Devontae Booker 5 2.5 10 1.4
Jason Witten 3 3 26 3.7
Alec Ingold 1 1 54 6
Josh Jacobs -2 -0.5 6 0.2


Takeaways
: Nelson Agholor is turning things around in Las Vegas, and he’s been a reliable deep threat for Derek Carr … speaking of Carr, the veteran quarterback has been taking some more risks downfield this season, as evident in two of his receivers having top-10 aDOTs …Waller’s short-yardage role makes him a volume-based TE1; the fact he leads this team in air yards despite his short-range aDOT is quite remarkable … look for Ruggs to bounce back next week against the Browns — his top-10 aDOT means that he doesn’t need many passes to return fantasy value.


New England Patriots

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Jakobi Meyers 114 19 121 17.3 (#10)
Damiere Byrd 33 11 367 12.7
Julian Edelman 17 5.7 403 10.3
N’Keal Harry 8 4 197 6.2
Dalton Keene 7 7 7 7
James White 2 2 -27 -1.3
Rex Burkhead 1 0.2 -9 -0.4
Ryan Izzo 1 1 113 9.4
Jakob Johnson -2 -2 4 1.3
Damien Harris -3 -3 0 0


Takeaways
: The New England Patriots are a mess … Jakobi Meyers led this team in air yards and targets (6) last week, but given the run-focused nature of this offense, he won’t see those downfield looks unless the Patriots are trailing big … Julian Edelman is a volume-dependent receiver each year, and in a run-heavy offense, he just doesn’t get used enough to warrant fantasy consideration … I know N’Keal Harry is still on a good chunk of fantasy rosters, but he shouldn’t be — he’s getting used closer to the line of scrimmage than Edelman, and he sees even fewer targets.


New Orleans Saints

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Marquez Callaway 75 7.5 135 7.9
Deonte Harris 47 9.4 90 5.6
Tre’Quan Smith 40 10 216 8.6
Jared Cook 30 7.5 253 11.5
Adam Trautman 10 10 43 10.8
Austin Carr 5 5 5 5
Latavius Murray 3 3 20 2.2
Josh Hill -1 -1 21 3.5
Alvin Kamara -18 -2.2 58 1.1


Takeaways
: Who had Marquez Callaway leading the Saints in receiving on their Week 7 bingo card? … the talented but undrafted rookie posted an impressive 10-8-75 stat line, and he had a touchdown nullified by a penalty on Tre’Quan Smith … the imminent return of Emmanuel Sanders (and of Michael Thomas) will send Callaway back to fantasy irrelevance, but if those guys continue to miss time, then he’s not a bad spot starter … Smith and Cook had down weeks usage-wise, but the Bears’ tough defense is not a good one to bounce back against — I’d strongly consider benching both of them as a result.


New York Giants

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Sterling Shepard 57 7.1 132 7.3
Evan Engram 46 5.1 240 5.3
Darius Slayton 37 9.2 596 12.4
Golden Tate 28 14 172 6.6
Devonta Freeman 0 0 -19 -1.7
Wayne Gallman -10 -2 -7 -0.6


Takeaways
: The Giants almost beat the Eagles last week, but drops, fumbles, and stumbles cost them the game … Slayton, usually a surefire downfield target, was used closer to the line of scrimmage than usual, but you can expect him to get back to catching deeper passes soon … Shepard, Engram, and Tate all compete for short-yardage looks, but there’s not enough to go around for all three … Tate is a must-cut, while Engram is a decent hold in case his catch rate regresses toward his career average.


New York Jets

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Denzel Mims 53 7.6 53 7.6
Braxton Berrios 50 7.1 262 9.7
Breshad Perriman 31 10.3 197 10.9
La’Mical Perine 8 2.7 1 0.1
Chris Herndon 8 8 128 5.6
Trevon Wesco 2 2 7 3.5


Takeaways
: The Jets didn’t have slot receiver Jamison Crowder last week, and Braxton Berries picked up his short-yardage targets as a result … Mims looked good in his rookie debut, although he wasn’t used as far downfield as he should’ve been — the rookie has 96th-percentile speed … Breshad Perriman disappointed his managers last week, but it’s hard to play well when you’re matched up against Tre’Davious White … for the first time in a while, I don’t need to criticize Adam Gase for giving Frank Gore positive air yards — it looks like La’Mical Perine has inherited Gore’s passing-down role.


Philadelphia Eagles

PLAYER WEEK 67AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Travis Fulgham 128 (#10) 11.6 432 12
Richard Rodgers 70 8.8 154 8.6
John Hightower 66 33 (#5) 466 22.2 (#5)
Greg Ward 47 7.8 243 6.1
DeSean Jackson 45 9 383 15.3
Boston Scott 18 3.6 4 0.3
Hakeem Butler 3 3 3 3
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 3 3 71 14.2
Corey Clement 2 2 -3 -1
Jason Huntley 0 0 0 0


Takeaways
: Fulgham is having an impressive season for Philadelphia … the loss of DeSean Jackson and the unlikely return of Alshon Jeffery make him a strong rest-of-season investment … that said, the return of Jalen Reagor this week or next will increase his competition for targets … Rodgers came in second on this team in air yards, and his strong performance makes him a strong streaming option this week against Dallas … Scott’s usage beyond the line of scrimmage boosts his value in PPR formats, although he won’t have much value once Miles Sanders returns.


Pittsburgh Steelers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
JuJu Smith-Schuster 120 8 254 5.8
Diontae Johnson 95 6.8 339 8.1
Eric Ebron 64 8 285 8.9
James Washington 4 4 239 9.6
James Conner 1 0.2 13 0.7
Vance McDonald 1 0.5 20 2
Anthony McFarland -3 -3 -4 -1
Chase Claypool -4 -4 318 13.2
Ray-Ray McCloud -9 -4.5 -16 -2.7


Takeaways
: Smith-Schuster led this team in air yards because of his massive target share — the short-yardage wideout earned 14 of them from Ben Roethlisberger, more than everyone except Diontae Johnson … speaking of Johnson, he was used closer to the line of scrimmage than he is usually, but I’d look for him to see more downfield targets moving forward … Chase Claypool fell off a cliff, but he drew coverage from Malcolm Butler, so that’s not entirely surprising — the fact that opposing defenses are so willing to respect the rookie should tell you all you need to know about his skill level … Claypool will be a fade in tough matchups, but he is capable of hitting value on a single play, so he’s a must-start when facing a mediocre cornerback.


Seattle Seahawks

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Tyler Lockett 233 (#1) 11.7 578 10
DK Metcalf 59 14.8 776 (#3) 17.2
Greg Olsen 38 12.7 180 8.2
David Moore 30 10 172 10.8
Will Dissly 23 5.8 56 4.7
Jacob Hollister 11 3.7 35 5.8
DeeJay Dallas 10 3.3 13 2.6
Carlos Hyde 6 1.5 -2 -0.3
Freddie Swain 5 5 39 4.3
Chris Carson 2 1 12 0.5


Takeaways
: Despite a disappointing Week 7, D.K. Metcalf remains one of the league’s leaders in air yards … Lockett’s league-leading air yards came on a league-leading 20 targets, so it’s not like the Seahawks are shifting him to more of a downfield role — that’s Metcalf’s job … 40% of Lockett’s air yards from this season came in last week’s game … there are no reliable fantasy options behind the tandem of receivers in this offense, and the air yards should tell you as much … neither Greg Olsen nor David Moore have cracked 200 air yards, and both rank outside the top-90 in the league.


San Francisco 49ers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Brandon Aiyuk 108 15.4 362 11
George Kittle 41 5.9 294 6.5
Kyle Juszczyk 18 9 86 7.2
Kendrick Bourne 4 4 303 10.1
Jeff Wilson -5 -2.5 5 0.8
JaMycal Hasty -6 -6 -6 -2
Deebo Samuel -12 -2.4 58 2.6


Takeaways
: Deebo Samuel parlayed his -12 air yards into 65 receiving yards, and that demonstrates his YAC ability … that said, he’ll be out for next week’s game against Seattle, so Aiyuk should get those opportunities instead … speaking of Aiyuk, he has the talent to make plays after the catch and get open downfield, and he looks like a high-end WR2 against Seattle’s putrid secondary this week … Bourne didn’t see much usage last week, but he’s still second on the team in total air yards, and he should bounce back against a bad defense with Samuel sidelined.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Scott Miller 143 (#6) 15.9 517 16.2
Rob Gronkowski 104 13 369 10
Chris Godwin 57 6.3 199 6.9
Mike Evans 31 15.5 418 10.7
Leonard Fournette 11 1.6 9 0.6
Tanner Hudson 11 11 73 14.6
Cameron Brate 8 8 72 7.2
Ronald Jones -1 -0.5 15 0.6
Tyler Johnson -1 -0.5 49 6.1


Takeaways
: It’s incredibly difficult to figure out what’s going on in Tampa Bay … Miller may lead the team in air yards on the season, but Tampa Bay’s other weapons (Godwin and Evans, to name a few) have frequently missed games with injuries … the addition of Antonio Brown will only complicate this offense further … looking at the splits, Evans struggles to hit value when Godwin is active, but since Godwin won’t play this week, Evans isn’t a bad start … that said, Brown’s presence could end up limiting his usage … while I expect Brown to hurt Miller the most, I don’t know how useful any prognostications about such a chaotic offense would be … just note that all Tampa Bay receivers are bust risks due to the sheer number of mouths to feed.


Tennessee Titans

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Corey Davis 94 9.4 292 9.7
A.J. Brown 94 11.8 329 10.3
Adam Humphries 43 14.3 271 9.3
Jonnu Smith 18 4.5 184 5.9
Anthony Firkser 6 3 168 7.6
Derrick Henry -3 -1.5 5 0.3


Takeaways
: Corey Davis is continuing to have a good season, and he’s retained value alongside Smith, Brown, and Humphries … Brown has the most upside of anyone in this offense due to his team-leading aDOT on the season … Humphries saw more downfield usage than he’ll usually get last week, and you can expect his aDOT to regress some against the Bengals … Smith doesn’t get much volume outside of the red-zone in this offense, but he’s also leading the team in targets inside the 10 and inside the 20, so he’s still a low-end TE1, albeit a touchdown-dependent one.


Washington Football Team

PLAYER WEEK 7 AIR YDS WEEK 7 aDOT YTD AIR YARDS YTD aDOT
Terry McLaurin 109 9.9 671 (#7) 10
Logan Thomas 38 9.5 334 9
Cam Sims 18 18 46 11.5
J.D. McKissic 7 3.5 61 1.7
Jeremy Sprinkle 3 3 6 3
Temarrick Hemingway 3 3 6 3
Antonio Gibson -2 -2 -26 -1.1


Takeaways
: The Football Team played without three of their receiving weapons last week (Antonio Gandy-Golden, Isaiah Wright, and Steven Sims), so take these numbers with a grain of salt … you wouldn’t know it, but Dontrelle Inman was active, yet he failed to log a single target … McLaurin dominated this offense in air yards and targets (11), and he’s the best player to roster on this offense … Thomas has posted consecutive low-end TE1 finishes, and it’s starting to look like he’ll pay off on his peripherals.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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