Fantasy Football Expert Mock Draft (July 2019)

by Mike Tagliere | @MikeTagliereNFL | Featured Writer
Jul 15, 2019

David Montgomery went well above his ADP in Mike Tagliere’s July Mock Draft

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

One of the ways to get a head start on your leaguemates is to find the trends before they take place. What better way to do that than get the guys who start those trends together a month before draft season?

To do that, I brought in some heavy hitters from around the industry to take part in a 12-team mock draft with deep starting rosters. It’s half-PPR scoring, as that’s the norm nowadays, while starting 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 3 flex spots (running back, wide receiver, tight end). We aren’t picking defenses or kickers in this league.

Instead of just going round by round and giving my thoughts on each pick, I’ll highlight the players who were taken well ahead of their current draft position, as well as those who were taken considerably later than expected. I’ll also try to give reasoning as to why that player might move as your draft approaches.

Here’s the list of analysts that took part in this mock draft with links to their Twitter accounts:

Justin Boone – The Score
Andrew Erickson – Fantasy Data
Brad Evans – Yahoo
Michael Fabiano – NFL
Pat Fitzmaurice – The Football Girl
Nate Hamilton – Fantrax
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo
Joe Pisapia – Fantrax
Jody Smith – Fantasy Data
Mike Tagliere – FantasyPros
Mike Wright- Fantasy Footballers
Kyle Yates – Fantasy Footballers

ROUNDS 1-2

PICK FRANCHISE SELECTION ADP DIFF
1 Kyle Yates Saquon Barkley 1 0
2 Joe Pisapia Ezekiel Elliott 2 0
3 Michael Fabiano Christian McCaffrey 3 0
4 Nate Hamilton Alvin Kamara 4 0
5 Justin Boone Melvin Gordon 5 0
6 Mike Wright David Johnson 6 0
7 Pat Fitzmaurice Davante Adams 9 2
8 Scott Pianowski DeAndre Hopkins 7 -1
9 Andrew Erickson Travis Kelce 16 7
10 Jody Smith Julio Jones 11 1
11 Brad Evans Le’Veon Bell 8 -3
12 Mike Tagliere Michael Thomas 13 1
13 Mike Tagliere Todd Gurley 14 1
14 Brad Evans Odell Beckham 15 1
15 Jody Smith James Conner 10 -5
16 Andrew Erickson Joe Mixon 12 -4
17 Scott Pianowski JuJu Smith-Schuster 17 0
18 Pat Fitzmaurice Dalvin Cook 19 1
19 Mike Wright Damien Williams 22 3
20 Justin Boone Nick Chubb 21 1
21 Nate Hamilton Mike Evans 18 -3
22 Michael Fabiano Antonio Brown 20 -2
23 Joe Pisapia Adam Thielen 26 3
24 Kyle Yates T.Y. Hilton 24 0

 

There’s not going to be much variation inside the top two rounds, as that’s where the studs are taken. There were two picks that stood out, however. We’ve heard the arguments for Travis Kelce as a first-round pick, and it’s likely that he finishes with a top-12 VBD (value-based drafting) score. The issue for me is that it requires you to absolutely nail your picks at running back and wide receiver in the middle rounds in order for this strategy to work. If you feel confident in certain wide receivers and running backs in the middle of your draft, taking Kelce at the end of the first round isn’t a bad idea, which Erickson feels he can do. The other pick was Smith taking James Conner, as he fell five spots further than his current draft position. There’s been plenty of whispers out of Pittsburgh that they’ll have a much more balanced rushing attack in 2019 and their pick of Benny Snell in the fourth-round may have solidified that. He’s a better pick in the second round due to the concerns.

ROUNDS 3-4

PICK FRANCHISE SELECTION ADP DIFF
25 Kyle Yates Keenan Allen 28 3
26 Joe Pisapia Aaron Jones 30 4
27 Michael Fabiano Amari Cooper 34 7
28 Nate Hamilton David Montgomery 50 22
29 Justin Boone George Kittle 35 6
30 Mike Wright Stefon Diggs 36 6
31 Pat Fitzmaurice A.J. Green 33 2
32 Scott Pianowski Marlon Mack 32 0
33 Andrew Erickson Kerryon Johnson 38 5
34 Jody Smith Leonard Fournette 25 -9
35 Brad Evans Julian Edelman 40 5
36 Mike Tagliere Zach Ertz 27 -9
37 Mike Tagliere Devonta Freeman 29 -8
38 Brad Evans Josh Jacobs 37 -1
39 Jody Smith Tyler Lockett 52 13
40 Andrew Erickson Robert Woods 45 5
41 Scott Pianowski Derrick Henry 31 -10
42 Pat Fitzmaurice Brandin Cooks 43 1
43 Mike Wright Sammy Watkins 63 20
44 Justin Boone Kenny Golladay 44 0
45 Nate Hamilton Mike Williams 59 14
46 Michael Fabiano Tyreek Hill 54 8
47 Joe Pisapia Calvin Ridley 55 8
48 Kyle Yates Mark Ingram 41 -7

 

This is where some of the shenanigans begin, as Hamilton reached quite a bit to ensure he landed David Montgomery at 3.04, which is the highest I’ve seen him go this offseason. While I like Montgomery, this is too high. But here’s the thing: if you want a player in a snake draft, sometimes you have to reach. There’s a chance Montgomery would’ve been off the board by the time Hamilton came back on the clock in the fourth round.

The other big reach in this round was Sammy Watkins, though it’s easy to understand why there’s a big divide on his current draft position. It’s clear that Wright believes Tyreek Hill is going to miss some time, which opens the door for more targets to Watkins. Depending on what we hear about the Hill situation, we could see Watkins’ ADP rise into this area of drafts.

We see some analysts reaching for their guys, but even more importantly, you need to pay attention to who is falling in drafts. Why? Because it takes just one analyst to reach for a player but it takes a lot of analysts for a player to fall more than a few spots. That’s why it’s notable that Leonard Fournette, Zach Ertz, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, and Mark Ingram all fell at least seven spots below their current draft position.

Fournette is on what’s expected to be a bad offense, but he’s a rare case of a running back who’s going to see 20-plus touches per game when healthy. He has an injury history that’s concerning, but he’s a steal in the third round (not the second). It was shocking that Ertz fell to me at the end of the third-round, as he’s typically a second-round pick. Count me as someone who believes this is the correct area he should go in. Freeman is a solid RB2 with upside for more in his offense, so it was surprising to see him fall this far. Henry and Ingram aren’t the best pass-catchers on their team and most analysts are looking for true three-down backs through the first three rounds, so it makes sense to see them fall a tad.

ROUNDS 5-6

PICK FRANCHISE SELECTION ADP DIFF
49 Kyle Yates Chris Godwin 51 2
50 Joe Pisapia James White 61 11
51 Michael Fabiano Phillip Lindsay 42 -9
52 Nate Hamilton Kenyan Drake 53 1
53 Justin Boone D.J. Moore 67 14
54 Mike Wright Patrick Mahomes 23 -31
55 Pat Fitzmaurice Sony Michel 39 -16
56 Scott Pianowski Cooper Kupp 48 -8
57 Andrew Erickson O.J. Howard 56 -1
58 Jody Smith Jarvis Landry 65 7
59 Brad Evans Tyler Boyd 66 7
60 Mike Tagliere Chris Carson 47 -13
61 Mike Tagliere Allen Robinson 79 18
62 Brad Evans Tarik Cohen 60 -2
63 Jody Smith Derrius Guice 64 1
64 Andrew Erickson Evan Engram 58 -6
65 Scott Pianowski Deshaun Watson 49 -16
66 Pat Fitzmaurice Lamar Miller 71 5
67 Mike Wright Robby Anderson 80 13
68 Justin Boone Alshon Jeffery 74 6
69 Nate Hamilton Andrew Luck 46 -23
70 Michael Fabiano Miles Sanders 75 5
71 Joe Pisapia Tevin Coleman 69 -2
72 Kyle Yates Rashaad Penny 78 6

 

The further you get from the top of the draft, the more separation you’ll start to see in ADP versus mock draft position. This is where you’ll typically find the players who’ll move up boards in the coming weeks, as well as those who are likely to fall. Let me start by saying that there is no value to be had with drafting a quarterback inside the top four rounds, as every analyst here agrees. In fact, there was not one single quarterback in the entire draft who was drafted prior to their average draft position. This is the area of the draft where you can make the case for the top-end options.

The biggest reaches in this round included Allen Robinson, who I snagged with the 61st overall pick, while his ADP sits at 79th overall. Knowing he was the 29th receiver off the board, I’m lucky to land him where I did. After going with Ertz in the third-round, I needed to secure my second receiver before things got too dire. Picking on the turn will force you to reach, though I don’t view this as much of one. Boone snagged D.J. Moore as the 53rd player off the board, while his ADP is 14 spots lower. Many in the industry like Moore as a potential breakout receiver, though I’m concerned about his consistency with Cam Newton under center. Two other players who went more than 10 spots earlier than their ADP included James White and Robby Anderson. If there’s one I completely agree with, it’s Pisapia who snagged White as the 23rd running back off the board.

The non-quarterbacks who fell at least eight spots in this range include: Sony Michel, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay, and Cooper Kupp. It’s odd to see running backs fall in industry drafts, so these names are notable. They all have one thing in common, though. Competition for carries on the roster. Michel is dealing with Damien Harris, Carson is dealing with Rashaad Penny, and Lindsay is dealing with Royce Freeman. As for Kupp, this has to be concern about his availability coming off the torn ACL, as he’s one of the safer bets at wide receiver when healthy.

ROUNDS 7-10

PICK FRANCHISE SELECTION ADP DIFF
73 Kyle Yates Larry Fitzgerald 100 27
74 Joe Pisapia Corey Davis 92 18
75 Michael Fabiano Hunter Henry 62 -13
76 Nate Hamilton Dante Pettis 86 10
77 Justin Boone Christian Kirk 87 10
78 Mike Wright Darrell Henderson 81 3
79 Pat Fitzmaurice Aaron Rodgers 57 -22
80 Scott Pianowski Marvin Jones 97 17
81 Andrew Erickson Will Fuller 82 1
82 Jody Smith Jared Cook 73 -9
83 Brad Evans Royce Freeman 93 10
84 Mike Tagliere Sterling Shepard 94 10
85 Mike Tagliere Ronald Jones 102 17
86 Brad Evans Eric Ebron 72 -14
87 Jody Smith Latavius Murray 84 -3
88 Andrew Erickson Baker Mayfield 68 -20
89 Scott Pianowski David Njoku 88 -1
90 Pat Fitzmaurice Courtland Sutton 103 13
91 Mike Wright Dede Westbrook 108 17
92 Justin Boone Jordan Howard 83 -9
93 Nate Hamilton Austin Hooper 119 26
94 Michael Fabiano James Washington 123 29
95 Joe Pisapia N’Keal Harry 98 3
96 Kyle Yates Mecole Hardman 113 17
97 Kyle Yates Jerick McKinnon 104 7
98 Joe Pisapia Matt Ryan 70 -28
99 Michael Fabiano LeSean McCoy 91 -8
100 Nate Hamilton Curtis Samuel 126 26
101 Justin Boone Carson Wentz 96 -5
102 Mike Wright Austin Ekeler 120 18
103 Pat Fitzmaurice Vance McDonald 85 -18
104 Scott Pianowski Peyton Barber 107 3
105 Andrew Erickson Keke Coutee 135 30
106 Jody Smith Russell Wilson 76 -30
107 Brad Evans Kyler Murray 101 -6
108 Mike Tagliere Golden Tate 106 -2
109 Mike Tagliere Geronimo Allison 118 9
110 Brad Evans Marquez Valdes-Scantling 128 18
111 Jody Smith DeSean Jackson 130 19
112 Andrew Erickson Damien Harris 143 31
113 Scott Pianowski Matt Breida 151 38
114 Pat Fitzmaurice Jaylen Samuels 114 0
115 Mike Wright D’Onta Foreman 121 6
116 Justin Boone Donte Moncrief 161 45
117 Nate Hamilton Carlos Hyde 110 -7
118 Michael Fabiano Emmanuel Sanders 112 -6
119 Joe Pisapia T.J. Hockenson 139 20
120 Kyle Yates Noah Fant 165 45

 

There are going to be plenty of reaches in this area, so there’s no point in talking about the players who went higher than their ADP, as it’s simply analysts reaching for “their guys.” The most notable reaches in this range were Donte Moncrief, Matt Breida, Damien Harris, and Keke Coutee, as they all went nearly essentially three-plus rounds before their current draft position.

The players who fell quite a bit in this range included tons of quarterbacks, though we already know they fell throughout the entire draft. It is notable, however, that Evans took Kyler Murray just six spots after his current draft position, the only quarterback in the entire mock who didn’t fall at least 16 spots from their current ADP. The non-quarterback fallers included: Vance McDonald, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Jordan Howard, Jared Cook, and LeSean McCoy. As you can see, analysts are not high on reaching for the second- and third-tier tight ends. As for Howard’s fall, he’s going to be a part of a big timeshare for a team who just spent a second-round pick on a running back.

ROUNDS 10-16

PICK FRANCHISE SELECTION ADP DIFF
121 Kyle Yates Mitchell Trubisky 144 23
122 Joe Pisapia Devin Funchess 122 0
123 Michael Fabiano Cam Newton 89 -34
124 Nate Hamilton Michael Gallup 166 42
125 Justin Boone Justice Hill 169 44
126 Mike Wright Anthony Miller 159 33
127 Pat Fitzmaurice DaeSean Hamilton 205 78
128 Scott Pianowski Delanie Walker 125 -3
129 Andrew Erickson Nyheim Hines 160 31
130 Jody Smith Drew Brees 77 -53
131 Brad Evans Kareem Hunt 95 -36
132 Mike Tagliere Jared Goff 99 -33
133 Mike Tagliere DeVante Parker 191 58
134 Brad Evans Josh Gordon 203 69
135 Jody Smith Kenny Stills 190 55
136 Andrew Erickson D.K. Metcalf 109 -27
137 Scott Pianowski T.J. Yeldon 232 95
138 Pat Fitzmaurice Trey Burton 134 -4
139 Mike Wright Ted Ginn 236 97
140 Justin Boone Dion Lewis 138 -2
141 Nate Hamilton Duke Johnson 198 57
142 Michael Fabiano Ito Smith 133 -9
143 Joe Pisapia Adrian Peterson 117 -26
144 Kyle Yates John Brown 189 45
145 Kyle Yates Marquise Brown 177 32
146 Joe Pisapia Tre’Quan Smith 176 30
147 Michael Fabiano Jack Doyle 208 61
148 Nate Hamilton Dak Prescott 132 -16
149 Justin Boone Parris Campbell 150 1
150 Mike Wright Kalen Ballage 170 20
151 Pat Fitzmaurice Robert Foster 220 69
152 Scott Pianowski Greg Olsen 155 3
153 Andrew Erickson Deebo Samuel 219 66
154 Jody Smith Alexander Mattison 180 26
155 Brad Evans Tyrell Williams 154 -1
156 Mike Tagliere Rex Burkhead 238 82
157 Mike Tagliere Jimmy Graham 147 -10
158 Brad Evans Albert Wilson 224 66
159 Jody Smith Kyle Rudolph 142 -17
160 Andrew Erickson Mike Davis 168 8
161 Scott Pianowski Zay Jones 225 64
162 Pat Fitzmaurice Chase Edmonds 249 87
163 Mike Wright Mark Andrews 186 23
164 Justin Boone C.J. Anderson 175 11
165 Nate Hamilton Nelson Agholor 234 69
166 Michael Fabiano Chris Thompson 215 49
167 Joe Pisapia Jamison Crowder 218 51
168 Kyle Yates Jamaal Williams 167 -1
169 Kyle Yates Andy Isabella 194 25
170 Joe Pisapia Devin Singletary 164 -6
171 Michael Fabiano Jameis Winston 127 -44
172 Nate Hamilton Jordan Reed 163 -9
173 Justin Boone Giovani Bernard 196 23
174 Mike Wright Danny Amendola 266 92
175 Pat Fitzmaurice Trey Quinn 250 75
176 Scott Pianowski Jalen Richard 213 37
177 Andrew Erickson Malcolm Brown 209 32
178 Jody Smith A.J. Brown 222 44
179 Brad Evans Will Dissly 324 145
180 Mike Tagliere Dallas Goedert 183 3
181 Mike Tagliere Mohamed Sanu 212 31
182 Brad Evans Ben Roethlisberger 115 -67
183 Jody Smith Randall Cobb 201 18
184 Andrew Erickson Frank Gore 260 76
185 Scott Pianowski Philip Rivers 111 -74
186 Pat Fitzmaurice Corey Clement 284 98
187 Mike Wright Antonio Callaway 243 56
188 Justin Boone Ryquell Armstead 216 28
189 Nate Hamilton Benny Snell 265 76
190 Michael Fabiano Marqise Lee 235 45
191 Joe Pisapia Jason Witten 231 40
192 Kyle Yates Lamar Jackson 141 -51

 

Here’s the “sleeper” portion of the draft where you’ll find late-round players each expert is attaching their name to as we enter draft season. There were 29 players drafted who are currently going outside the top 200 in ADP, or in other words, not drafted.

Some of the most interesting names that popped up were Pianowski taking T.J. Yeldon, Fitzmaurice taking DaeSean Hamilton, Evans taking Josh Gordon, and Fabiano taking Jack Doyle. It seems like the Bills backfield is going to be a mess, as they added Frank Gore (not to sit on the bench), Yeldon, and Devin Singletary. That doesn’t even include LeSean McCoy, who the Bills kept on the payroll. There are plenty of sharp people who like Hamilton as a sleeper, but when has Joe Flacco inspired confidence in fantasy owners? They also have a brutal schedule. Evans has been all over Gordon as a late-round pick, but I’m someone who doesn’t believe he plays football in 2019. Doyle out-snapped and out-targeted Eric Ebron in the games they played together, but the fact that Ebron scored nine touchdowns in those games compared to just three for Doyle skews the fantasy outcome. It’s possible Doyle is the top tight end to own in Indianapolis.

The non-quarterback players who fell into the double-digit rounds that may shock some of the public drafters include Kareem Hunt, D.K. Metcalf, Adrian Peterson, and Jimmy Graham. I’ve been on record as saying I wouldn’t draft Hunt because he will not return until Week 10, as he’s suspended for the first eight games, and the Browns have their bye in that time. On top of that, Nick Chubb is their starter. Metcalf could be a steal, but it seems like he’s not currently in the starting lineup, which means he may wind-up on waiver wires very soon. Peterson is likely going to move up lists the more time Derrius Guice misses, but he’s also a boring fantasy option with Guice factored in at all. Graham follows the trend of tight ends being devalued among analysts, though I think he’s an excellent late-round addition.

THE RESULTS

“Mike, how do you win a mock draft?” I’ve been asked this question quite a few times, so I wanted to include this portion of who “won” the draft. We have over 100 analysts as part of our ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings), which is then built into our Draft Wizard. From there, we take those rankings and essentially use them to tell you how good your draft was. Again, this not according to my rankings, but rather a consensus of 100-plus analysts in the industry. Here’s what the experts thought after this mock draft.

1. Michael Fabiano – 1075
2. Justin Boone – 1064
3. Mike Tagliere – 1055
4. Scott Pianowski – 1048
5. Joe Pisapia – 1039
6. Pat Fitzmaurice – 1028
7. Nate Hamilton – 1026
8. Jody Smith – 1021
9. Mike Wright – 1013
10. Kyle Yates – 1001
11. Brad Evans – 990
12. Andrew Erickson – 978

When you have that big of a consensus, it’s definitely a plus when they think highly of your team. In the end, you have to go to war with your roster and you have to like your team. So, go out there, get the players you want, and contend for a title in 2019.

 

 

What's your take? Leave a comment

Fantasy Games
FanDuel photo
Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel
1Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
2Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
3Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5David Johnson (ARI)RB
6DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
7Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
8James Conner (PIT)RB
9Davante Adams (GB)WR
10Julio Jones (ATL)WR
 View All Rankings 
11Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
12Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
13Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
14Travis Kelce (KC)TE
15Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
16Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
17Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
18JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)WR
19Michael Thomas (NO)WR
20Mike Evans (TB)WR
21Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
22T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
23Antonio Brown (OAK)WR
24Marlon Mack (IND)RB
25Kerryon Johnson (DET)RB
26Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
27Aaron Jones (GB)RB
28Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
29George Kittle (SF)TE
30Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF,DH
2Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,CF
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
5Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
6J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
7Trevor Story (COL)SS
8Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
9Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
10Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Trea Turner (WSH)SS
14Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
15Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
16Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
17Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
18Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
19Chris Sale (BOS)SP
20Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
21Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
22Juan Soto (WSH)LF
23Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
24Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
25Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
26Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
27Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
28Starling Marte (PIT)CF
29Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
30Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SG,SF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Follow the Pros!

Follow us on Twitter @FantasyPros for exclusive advice and contests