Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
One of the ways to get a head start on your leaguemates is to find the trends before they take place. What better way to do that than get the guys who start those trends together a month before draft season?
To do that, I brought in some heavy hitters from around the industry to take part in a 12-team mock draft with deep starting rosters. It’s half-PPR scoring, as that’s the norm nowadays, while starting 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 3 flex spots (running back, wide receiver, tight end). We aren’t picking defenses or kickers in this league.
Instead of just going round by round and giving my thoughts on each pick, I’ll highlight the players who were taken well ahead of their current draft position, as well as those who were taken considerably later than expected. I’ll also try to give reasoning as to why that player might move as your draft approaches.
Here’s the list of analysts that took part in this mock draft with links to their Twitter accounts:
Justin Boone – The Score
Andrew Erickson – Fantasy Data
Brad Evans – Yahoo
Michael Fabiano – NFL
Pat Fitzmaurice – The Football Girl
Nate Hamilton – Fantrax
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo
Joe Pisapia – Fantrax
Jody Smith – Fantasy Data
Mike Tagliere – FantasyPros
Mike Wright- Fantasy Footballers
Kyle Yates – Fantasy Footballers
ROUNDS 1-2
PICK | FRANCHISE | SELECTION | ADP | DIFF |
1 | Kyle Yates | Saquon Barkley | 1 | 0 |
2 | Joe Pisapia | Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 0 |
3 | Michael Fabiano | Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 0 |
4 | Nate Hamilton | Alvin Kamara | 4 | 0 |
5 | Justin Boone | Melvin Gordon | 5 | 0 |
6 | Mike Wright | David Johnson | 6 | 0 |
7 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Davante Adams | 9 | 2 |
8 | Scott Pianowski | DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | -1 |
9 | Andrew Erickson | Travis Kelce | 16 | 7 |
10 | Jody Smith | Julio Jones | 11 | 1 |
11 | Brad Evans | Le’Veon Bell | 8 | -3 |
12 | Mike Tagliere | Michael Thomas | 13 | 1 |
13 | Mike Tagliere | Todd Gurley | 14 | 1 |
14 | Brad Evans | Odell Beckham | 15 | 1 |
15 | Jody Smith | James Conner | 10 | -5 |
16 | Andrew Erickson | Joe Mixon | 12 | -4 |
17 | Scott Pianowski | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 17 | 0 |
18 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Dalvin Cook | 19 | 1 |
19 | Mike Wright | Damien Williams | 22 | 3 |
20 | Justin Boone | Nick Chubb | 21 | 1 |
21 | Nate Hamilton | Mike Evans | 18 | -3 |
22 | Michael Fabiano | Antonio Brown | 20 | -2 |
23 | Joe Pisapia | Adam Thielen | 26 | 3 |
24 | Kyle Yates | T.Y. Hilton | 24 | 0 |
There’s not going to be much variation inside the top two rounds, as that’s where the studs are taken. There were two picks that stood out, however. We’ve heard the arguments for Travis Kelce as a first-round pick, and it’s likely that he finishes with a top-12 VBD (value-based drafting) score. The issue for me is that it requires you to absolutely nail your picks at running back and wide receiver in the middle rounds in order for this strategy to work. If you feel confident in certain wide receivers and running backs in the middle of your draft, taking Kelce at the end of the first round isn’t a bad idea, which Erickson feels he can do. The other pick was Smith taking James Conner, as he fell five spots further than his current draft position. There’s been plenty of whispers out of Pittsburgh that they’ll have a much more balanced rushing attack in 2019 and their pick of Benny Snell in the fourth-round may have solidified that. He’s a better pick in the second round due to the concerns.
ROUNDS 3-4
PICK | FRANCHISE | SELECTION | ADP | DIFF |
25 | Kyle Yates | Keenan Allen | 28 | 3 |
26 | Joe Pisapia | Aaron Jones | 30 | 4 |
27 | Michael Fabiano | Amari Cooper | 34 | 7 |
28 | Nate Hamilton | David Montgomery | 50 | 22 |
29 | Justin Boone | George Kittle | 35 | 6 |
30 | Mike Wright | Stefon Diggs | 36 | 6 |
31 | Pat Fitzmaurice | A.J. Green | 33 | 2 |
32 | Scott Pianowski | Marlon Mack | 32 | 0 |
33 | Andrew Erickson | Kerryon Johnson | 38 | 5 |
34 | Jody Smith | Leonard Fournette | 25 | -9 |
35 | Brad Evans | Julian Edelman | 40 | 5 |
36 | Mike Tagliere | Zach Ertz | 27 | -9 |
37 | Mike Tagliere | Devonta Freeman | 29 | -8 |
38 | Brad Evans | Josh Jacobs | 37 | -1 |
39 | Jody Smith | Tyler Lockett | 52 | 13 |
40 | Andrew Erickson | Robert Woods | 45 | 5 |
41 | Scott Pianowski | Derrick Henry | 31 | -10 |
42 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Brandin Cooks | 43 | 1 |
43 | Mike Wright | Sammy Watkins | 63 | 20 |
44 | Justin Boone | Kenny Golladay | 44 | 0 |
45 | Nate Hamilton | Mike Williams | 59 | 14 |
46 | Michael Fabiano | Tyreek Hill | 54 | 8 |
47 | Joe Pisapia | Calvin Ridley | 55 | 8 |
48 | Kyle Yates | Mark Ingram | 41 | -7 |
This is where some of the shenanigans begin, as Hamilton reached quite a bit to ensure he landed David Montgomery at 3.04, which is the highest I’ve seen him go this offseason. While I like Montgomery, this is too high. But here’s the thing: if you want a player in a snake draft, sometimes you have to reach. There’s a chance Montgomery would’ve been off the board by the time Hamilton came back on the clock in the fourth round.
The other big reach in this round was Sammy Watkins, though it’s easy to understand why there’s a big divide on his current draft position. It’s clear that Wright believes Tyreek Hill is going to miss some time, which opens the door for more targets to Watkins. Depending on what we hear about the Hill situation, we could see Watkins’ ADP rise into this area of drafts.
We see some analysts reaching for their guys, but even more importantly, you need to pay attention to who is falling in drafts. Why? Because it takes just one analyst to reach for a player but it takes a lot of analysts for a player to fall more than a few spots. That’s why it’s notable that Leonard Fournette, Zach Ertz, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, and Mark Ingram all fell at least seven spots below their current draft position.
Fournette is on what’s expected to be a bad offense, but he’s a rare case of a running back who’s going to see 20-plus touches per game when healthy. He has an injury history that’s concerning, but he’s a steal in the third round (not the second). It was shocking that Ertz fell to me at the end of the third-round, as he’s typically a second-round pick. Count me as someone who believes this is the correct area he should go in. Freeman is a solid RB2 with upside for more in his offense, so it was surprising to see him fall this far. Henry and Ingram aren’t the best pass-catchers on their team and most analysts are looking for true three-down backs through the first three rounds, so it makes sense to see them fall a tad.
ROUNDS 5-6
PICK | FRANCHISE | SELECTION | ADP | DIFF |
49 | Kyle Yates | Chris Godwin | 51 | 2 |
50 | Joe Pisapia | James White | 61 | 11 |
51 | Michael Fabiano | Phillip Lindsay | 42 | -9 |
52 | Nate Hamilton | Kenyan Drake | 53 | 1 |
53 | Justin Boone | D.J. Moore | 67 | 14 |
54 | Mike Wright | Patrick Mahomes | 23 | -31 |
55 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Sony Michel | 39 | -16 |
56 | Scott Pianowski | Cooper Kupp | 48 | -8 |
57 | Andrew Erickson | O.J. Howard | 56 | -1 |
58 | Jody Smith | Jarvis Landry | 65 | 7 |
59 | Brad Evans | Tyler Boyd | 66 | 7 |
60 | Mike Tagliere | Chris Carson | 47 | -13 |
61 | Mike Tagliere | Allen Robinson | 79 | 18 |
62 | Brad Evans | Tarik Cohen | 60 | -2 |
63 | Jody Smith | Derrius Guice | 64 | 1 |
64 | Andrew Erickson | Evan Engram | 58 | -6 |
65 | Scott Pianowski | Deshaun Watson | 49 | -16 |
66 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Lamar Miller | 71 | 5 |
67 | Mike Wright | Robby Anderson | 80 | 13 |
68 | Justin Boone | Alshon Jeffery | 74 | 6 |
69 | Nate Hamilton | Andrew Luck | 46 | -23 |
70 | Michael Fabiano | Miles Sanders | 75 | 5 |
71 | Joe Pisapia | Tevin Coleman | 69 | -2 |
72 | Kyle Yates | Rashaad Penny | 78 | 6 |
The further you get from the top of the draft, the more separation you’ll start to see in ADP versus mock draft position. This is where you’ll typically find the players who’ll move up boards in the coming weeks, as well as those who are likely to fall. Let me start by saying that there is no value to be had with drafting a quarterback inside the top four rounds, as every analyst here agrees. In fact, there was not one single quarterback in the entire draft who was drafted prior to their average draft position. This is the area of the draft where you can make the case for the top-end options.
The biggest reaches in this round included Allen Robinson, who I snagged with the 61st overall pick, while his ADP sits at 79th overall. Knowing he was the 29th receiver off the board, I’m lucky to land him where I did. After going with Ertz in the third-round, I needed to secure my second receiver before things got too dire. Picking on the turn will force you to reach, though I don’t view this as much of one. Boone snagged D.J. Moore as the 53rd player off the board, while his ADP is 14 spots lower. Many in the industry like Moore as a potential breakout receiver, though I’m concerned about his consistency with Cam Newton under center. Two other players who went more than 10 spots earlier than their ADP included James White and Robby Anderson. If there’s one I completely agree with, it’s Pisapia who snagged White as the 23rd running back off the board.
The non-quarterbacks who fell at least eight spots in this range include: Sony Michel, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay, and Cooper Kupp. It’s odd to see running backs fall in industry drafts, so these names are notable. They all have one thing in common, though. Competition for carries on the roster. Michel is dealing with Damien Harris, Carson is dealing with Rashaad Penny, and Lindsay is dealing with Royce Freeman. As for Kupp, this has to be concern about his availability coming off the torn ACL, as he’s one of the safer bets at wide receiver when healthy.
ROUNDS 7-10
PICK | FRANCHISE | SELECTION | ADP | DIFF |
73 | Kyle Yates | Larry Fitzgerald | 100 | 27 |
74 | Joe Pisapia | Corey Davis | 92 | 18 |
75 | Michael Fabiano | Hunter Henry | 62 | -13 |
76 | Nate Hamilton | Dante Pettis | 86 | 10 |
77 | Justin Boone | Christian Kirk | 87 | 10 |
78 | Mike Wright | Darrell Henderson | 81 | 3 |
79 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Aaron Rodgers | 57 | -22 |
80 | Scott Pianowski | Marvin Jones | 97 | 17 |
81 | Andrew Erickson | Will Fuller | 82 | 1 |
82 | Jody Smith | Jared Cook | 73 | -9 |
83 | Brad Evans | Royce Freeman | 93 | 10 |
84 | Mike Tagliere | Sterling Shepard | 94 | 10 |
85 | Mike Tagliere | Ronald Jones | 102 | 17 |
86 | Brad Evans | Eric Ebron | 72 | -14 |
87 | Jody Smith | Latavius Murray | 84 | -3 |
88 | Andrew Erickson | Baker Mayfield | 68 | -20 |
89 | Scott Pianowski | David Njoku | 88 | -1 |
90 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Courtland Sutton | 103 | 13 |
91 | Mike Wright | Dede Westbrook | 108 | 17 |
92 | Justin Boone | Jordan Howard | 83 | -9 |
93 | Nate Hamilton | Austin Hooper | 119 | 26 |
94 | Michael Fabiano | James Washington | 123 | 29 |
95 | Joe Pisapia | N’Keal Harry | 98 | 3 |
96 | Kyle Yates | Mecole Hardman | 113 | 17 |
97 | Kyle Yates | Jerick McKinnon | 104 | 7 |
98 | Joe Pisapia | Matt Ryan | 70 | -28 |
99 | Michael Fabiano | LeSean McCoy | 91 | -8 |
100 | Nate Hamilton | Curtis Samuel | 126 | 26 |
101 | Justin Boone | Carson Wentz | 96 | -5 |
102 | Mike Wright | Austin Ekeler | 120 | 18 |
103 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Vance McDonald | 85 | -18 |
104 | Scott Pianowski | Peyton Barber | 107 | 3 |
105 | Andrew Erickson | Keke Coutee | 135 | 30 |
106 | Jody Smith | Russell Wilson | 76 | -30 |
107 | Brad Evans | Kyler Murray | 101 | -6 |
108 | Mike Tagliere | Golden Tate | 106 | -2 |
109 | Mike Tagliere | Geronimo Allison | 118 | 9 |
110 | Brad Evans | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 128 | 18 |
111 | Jody Smith | DeSean Jackson | 130 | 19 |
112 | Andrew Erickson | Damien Harris | 143 | 31 |
113 | Scott Pianowski | Matt Breida | 151 | 38 |
114 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Jaylen Samuels | 114 | 0 |
115 | Mike Wright | D’Onta Foreman | 121 | 6 |
116 | Justin Boone | Donte Moncrief | 161 | 45 |
117 | Nate Hamilton | Carlos Hyde | 110 | -7 |
118 | Michael Fabiano | Emmanuel Sanders | 112 | -6 |
119 | Joe Pisapia | T.J. Hockenson | 139 | 20 |
120 | Kyle Yates | Noah Fant | 165 | 45 |
There are going to be plenty of reaches in this area, so there’s no point in talking about the players who went higher than their ADP, as it’s simply analysts reaching for “their guys.” The most notable reaches in this range were Donte Moncrief, Matt Breida, Damien Harris, and Keke Coutee, as they all went nearly essentially three-plus rounds before their current draft position.
The players who fell quite a bit in this range included tons of quarterbacks, though we already know they fell throughout the entire draft. It is notable, however, that Evans took Kyler Murray just six spots after his current draft position, the only quarterback in the entire mock who didn’t fall at least 16 spots from their current ADP. The non-quarterback fallers included: Vance McDonald, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Jordan Howard, Jared Cook, and LeSean McCoy. As you can see, analysts are not high on reaching for the second- and third-tier tight ends. As for Howard’s fall, he’s going to be a part of a big timeshare for a team who just spent a second-round pick on a running back.
ROUNDS 10-16
PICK | FRANCHISE | SELECTION | ADP | DIFF |
121 | Kyle Yates | Mitchell Trubisky | 144 | 23 |
122 | Joe Pisapia | Devin Funchess | 122 | 0 |
123 | Michael Fabiano | Cam Newton | 89 | -34 |
124 | Nate Hamilton | Michael Gallup | 166 | 42 |
125 | Justin Boone | Justice Hill | 169 | 44 |
126 | Mike Wright | Anthony Miller | 159 | 33 |
127 | Pat Fitzmaurice | DaeSean Hamilton | 205 | 78 |
128 | Scott Pianowski | Delanie Walker | 125 | -3 |
129 | Andrew Erickson | Nyheim Hines | 160 | 31 |
130 | Jody Smith | Drew Brees | 77 | -53 |
131 | Brad Evans | Kareem Hunt | 95 | -36 |
132 | Mike Tagliere | Jared Goff | 99 | -33 |
133 | Mike Tagliere | DeVante Parker | 191 | 58 |
134 | Brad Evans | Josh Gordon | 203 | 69 |
135 | Jody Smith | Kenny Stills | 190 | 55 |
136 | Andrew Erickson | D.K. Metcalf | 109 | -27 |
137 | Scott Pianowski | T.J. Yeldon | 232 | 95 |
138 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Trey Burton | 134 | -4 |
139 | Mike Wright | Ted Ginn | 236 | 97 |
140 | Justin Boone | Dion Lewis | 138 | -2 |
141 | Nate Hamilton | Duke Johnson | 198 | 57 |
142 | Michael Fabiano | Ito Smith | 133 | -9 |
143 | Joe Pisapia | Adrian Peterson | 117 | -26 |
144 | Kyle Yates | John Brown | 189 | 45 |
145 | Kyle Yates | Marquise Brown | 177 | 32 |
146 | Joe Pisapia | Tre’Quan Smith | 176 | 30 |
147 | Michael Fabiano | Jack Doyle | 208 | 61 |
148 | Nate Hamilton | Dak Prescott | 132 | -16 |
149 | Justin Boone | Parris Campbell | 150 | 1 |
150 | Mike Wright | Kalen Ballage | 170 | 20 |
151 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Robert Foster | 220 | 69 |
152 | Scott Pianowski | Greg Olsen | 155 | 3 |
153 | Andrew Erickson | Deebo Samuel | 219 | 66 |
154 | Jody Smith | Alexander Mattison | 180 | 26 |
155 | Brad Evans | Tyrell Williams | 154 | -1 |
156 | Mike Tagliere | Rex Burkhead | 238 | 82 |
157 | Mike Tagliere | Jimmy Graham | 147 | -10 |
158 | Brad Evans | Albert Wilson | 224 | 66 |
159 | Jody Smith | Kyle Rudolph | 142 | -17 |
160 | Andrew Erickson | Mike Davis | 168 | 8 |
161 | Scott Pianowski | Zay Jones | 225 | 64 |
162 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Chase Edmonds | 249 | 87 |
163 | Mike Wright | Mark Andrews | 186 | 23 |
164 | Justin Boone | C.J. Anderson | 175 | 11 |
165 | Nate Hamilton | Nelson Agholor | 234 | 69 |
166 | Michael Fabiano | Chris Thompson | 215 | 49 |
167 | Joe Pisapia | Jamison Crowder | 218 | 51 |
168 | Kyle Yates | Jamaal Williams | 167 | -1 |
169 | Kyle Yates | Andy Isabella | 194 | 25 |
170 | Joe Pisapia | Devin Singletary | 164 | -6 |
171 | Michael Fabiano | Jameis Winston | 127 | -44 |
172 | Nate Hamilton | Jordan Reed | 163 | -9 |
173 | Justin Boone | Giovani Bernard | 196 | 23 |
174 | Mike Wright | Danny Amendola | 266 | 92 |
175 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Trey Quinn | 250 | 75 |
176 | Scott Pianowski | Jalen Richard | 213 | 37 |
177 | Andrew Erickson | Malcolm Brown | 209 | 32 |
178 | Jody Smith | A.J. Brown | 222 | 44 |
179 | Brad Evans | Will Dissly | 324 | 145 |
180 | Mike Tagliere | Dallas Goedert | 183 | 3 |
181 | Mike Tagliere | Mohamed Sanu | 212 | 31 |
182 | Brad Evans | Ben Roethlisberger | 115 | -67 |
183 | Jody Smith | Randall Cobb | 201 | 18 |
184 | Andrew Erickson | Frank Gore | 260 | 76 |
185 | Scott Pianowski | Philip Rivers | 111 | -74 |
186 | Pat Fitzmaurice | Corey Clement | 284 | 98 |
187 | Mike Wright | Antonio Callaway | 243 | 56 |
188 | Justin Boone | Ryquell Armstead | 216 | 28 |
189 | Nate Hamilton | Benny Snell | 265 | 76 |
190 | Michael Fabiano | Marqise Lee | 235 | 45 |
191 | Joe Pisapia | Jason Witten | 231 | 40 |
192 | Kyle Yates | Lamar Jackson | 141 | -51 |
Here’s the “sleeper” portion of the draft where you’ll find late-round players each expert is attaching their name to as we enter draft season. There were 29 players drafted who are currently going outside the top 200 in ADP, or in other words, not drafted.
Some of the most interesting names that popped up were Pianowski taking T.J. Yeldon, Fitzmaurice taking DaeSean Hamilton, Evans taking Josh Gordon, and Fabiano taking Jack Doyle. It seems like the Bills backfield is going to be a mess, as they added Frank Gore (not to sit on the bench), Yeldon, and Devin Singletary. That doesn’t even include LeSean McCoy, who the Bills kept on the payroll. There are plenty of sharp people who like Hamilton as a sleeper, but when has Joe Flacco inspired confidence in fantasy owners? They also have a brutal schedule. Evans has been all over Gordon as a late-round pick, but I’m someone who doesn’t believe he plays football in 2019. Doyle out-snapped and out-targeted Eric Ebron in the games they played together, but the fact that Ebron scored nine touchdowns in those games compared to just three for Doyle skews the fantasy outcome. It’s possible Doyle is the top tight end to own in Indianapolis.
The non-quarterback players who fell into the double-digit rounds that may shock some of the public drafters include Kareem Hunt, D.K. Metcalf, Adrian Peterson, and Jimmy Graham. I’ve been on record as saying I wouldn’t draft Hunt because he will not return until Week 10, as he’s suspended for the first eight games, and the Browns have their bye in that time. On top of that, Nick Chubb is their starter. Metcalf could be a steal, but it seems like he’s not currently in the starting lineup, which means he may wind-up on waiver wires very soon. Peterson is likely going to move up lists the more time Derrius Guice misses, but he’s also a boring fantasy option with Guice factored in at all. Graham follows the trend of tight ends being devalued among analysts, though I think he’s an excellent late-round addition.
THE RESULTS
“Mike, how do you win a mock draft?” I’ve been asked this question quite a few times, so I wanted to include this portion of who “won” the draft. We have over 100 analysts as part of our ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings), which is then built into our Draft Wizard. From there, we take those rankings and essentially use them to tell you how good your draft was. Again, this not according to my rankings, but rather a consensus of 100-plus analysts in the industry. Here’s what the experts thought after this mock draft.
1. Michael Fabiano – 1075
2. Justin Boone – 1064
3. Mike Tagliere – 1055
4. Scott Pianowski – 1048
5. Joe Pisapia – 1039
6. Pat Fitzmaurice – 1028
7. Nate Hamilton – 1026
8. Jody Smith – 1021
9. Mike Wright – 1013
10. Kyle Yates – 1001
11. Brad Evans – 990
12. Andrew Erickson – 978
When you have that big of a consensus, it’s definitely a plus when they think highly of your team. In the end, you have to go to war with your roster and you have to like your team. So, go out there, get the players you want, and contend for a title in 2019.