Welcome to Air Yard Analysis! Each week, I’ll break down the trends in air yards across the NFL. In case you haven’t used air yards for fantasy analysis before, here’s the rundown on what the advanced stat means:

Fantasy football is a game of volume. Snaps, carries, targets, receptions, yards, red-zone looks — all of these reflect the opportunities a player receives in a game. While it’s up to the player to capitalize on their chances, a player’s efficiency tends to vary more than their opportunities.

Air yards are another volume stat that’s crucial to understanding a player’s value. Air yards measure the total distance that a thrown ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the player in question, and they help us to understand which targets are worth more than others.

For example, a wide receiver who earned six targets and eight air yards is far less valuable than one who earned four targets and 92 air yards, even if the second player failed to catch all of their looks. That’s because a best-possible six receptions for eight yards gives you only 6.8 PPR points, while four catches for 92 yards would let you 13.2 PPR points. That’s a higher ceiling, and the second player could even drop a pass and still out-perform the first player.

One of the best ways to gauge how an offense uses a receiver is to look at his average depth of target (aDOT). By dividing a player’s air yards by their total targets, we get a sense of how far beyond the line of scrimmage a player is usually targeted. The metric helps us to distinguish between high-volume players and low-volume deep threats.

Each week, I’ll read through and analyze every team’s air yards to give you my take. I’ll include every player with a target in my charts, and I’ll highlight which players are leading the league in each stat. All stats are from airyards.com.

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Arizona Cardinals

 
Takeaways: With Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury (specifically, an AC joint sprain), the Cardinals’ passing offense has regressed a little bit … that’s not a big deal for DeAndre Hopkins, as he ranks fourth in targets (103) and third in receptions (77) … but it’s had a marked impact on both Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella, who depend on longer-range targets to post fantasy-relevant numbers … Chase Edmonds remains one of the league’s premier receiving backs, and his usage beyond the line of scrimmage bolsters his value.

Atlanta Falcons

 
Takeaways: The Falcons didn’t have Julio Jones last week, which would usually mean lots of volume for Calvin Ridley … except the Falcons got out to a big lead early and didn’t need to pass much … Olamide Zaccheaus draws a healthy number of longer-range looks when Jones misses time, and if he can’t play this week, he won’t be a bad high-upside option against the Saints … both Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst pretty much only get short-range targets, and that means they’ll depend on volume to hit value … that’s not a concern while Jones is out, but they may get less usage once he returns.

Buffalo Bills

 
Takeaways: John Brown is now on injured reserve, and that will give Gabriel Davis a chance to break out for Buffalo … he may not get a ton of targets, but they’ll come far enough downfield for him to be a candidate to hit value … despite a down week, Stefon Diggs remains a rock-solid WR1 — not only does he rank seventh in air yards, but he also ranks second in targets (110) and receptions (80) … Cole Beasley works exclusively out of the slot (and, last week, as a quarterback), as he’s logged 85.1% of his snaps there, so he’s mostly relevant in PPR formats because he won’t get you many yards.

Carolina Panthers

 
Takeaways: A week after returning from injury, Teddy Bridgewater boosted two receivers into the top-10 in weekly air yards … Moore now ranks as one of the league’s best deep threats, but we’ll need to see if he practices next week following Carolina’s bye … Anderson is a higher-volume, shorter-yardage option, and while he lacks Moore’s upside, he could enter low-end WR1 territory if Moore can’t play … likewise, deep threat-turned-slot receiver Curtis Samuel would get a boost as well — especially if the Panthers start using him downfield more often.

Chicago Bears

 
Takeaways: Allen Robinson had the best fantasy numbers for Chicago last week, but Darnell Mooney led the team in total air yards … while he only hauled in three of his nine targets, he’s a good high-upside, boom-or-bust option if you need some pop to win your matchup … Allen Robinson remains a shakier WR1 option that many would like due to poor quarterback play, but his three scores last week could’ve won you a matchup … Anthony Miller has seen longer-range targets than most slot receivers get … that said, I wouldn’t trust him to start outside of very deep leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals

 
Takeaways: In Brandon Allen‘s first start for Cincinnati, we didn’t see much to indicate that these receivers would retain their fantasy value … yes, Higgins got a touchdown, but he didn’t see the downfield targets that propelled him into WR3/FLEX status before this week … while Green remained a long-range threat, he didn’t reel in any of Allen’s three passes to him … Boyd had an especially down performance — although he earned a team-best six targets, he only caught three of them for 15 yards … he remains a fantasy option in PPR formats, but Allen won’t make him the high-floor option he was with Joe Burrow,

Cleveland Browns

 
Takeaways: The Browns played their first game away from Cleveland’s miserable weather last week, and their passing game reaped the rewards … Jarvis Landry had a dominant fay downfield — he led the team in air yards, targets (11), and receptions (8), and while he’s not a great option in bad-weather matchups, Cleveland only has one home game left before Week 17 … KhaDarel Hodge and Rashard Higgins have been splitting Odell Beckham‘s downfield work … unfortunately, they aren’t fantasy-relevant if they’re splitting Baker Mayfield‘s relatively few deep targets … Kareem Hunt is the clear-cut second read with Beckham sidelined, and the fact that he ranks second on the team in air yards as a running back should be all the proof you need to that end.

Dallas Cowboys

 
Takeaways: The Cowboys offense hasn’t been the same without Dak Prescott, and it’s hard to get excited about their receivers as fantasy options … Andy Dalton had a much better second showing against Washington, but it wasn’t enough to make more than one of these guys fantasy-relevant … Cooper remains the best option in this offense, as indicated by his share of the air yards … Gallup and Lamb had below-average aDOTS, which will be something to monitor as Dalton plays more games — if this turns into a trend, they won’t have as much upside as they did in the past … it’s interesting that both Elliott and Pollard logged positive air yards, and if they keep getting targeted beyond the line of scrimmage, the extra passing-down work will increase their fantasy value.

Denver Broncos

 
Takeaways: The Broncos started practice-squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton under center, and the results weren’t pretty … he attempted a total of nine passes, two of which were picked, and the results weren’t pretty … these numbers don’t mean much, however, as Denver will have a starting-caliber quarterback in their next game.

Detroit Lions

 
Takeaways: With both Danny Amendola and Kenny Golladay sidelined, Marvin Jones dominated the share of Detroit’s Thanksgiving air yards … he only caught six of his 12 targets, however, and totaled just 48 receiving yards … while the peripherals suggest that he’ll be a rock-solid WR3/FLEX option if the two wideouts continue to miss time, he’ll need to be more efficient if he wants to actually produce at that level … Hockenson is a fantastic start at tight end given his share of the air yards, and in a thin market, you’d be lucky to have him right now … Marvin Hall remains a fantastic boom-or-bust deep threat with those two sidelined as well.

Green Bay Packers

 
Takeaways: The Packers don’t have many receiving weapons — less than half of these seven guys are wide receivers, and three of them are tight ends … Davante Adams remains a volume-driven WR1; while he doesn’t have the longest-range aDOT, he gets more than enough targets to lead the Packers in air yards each week … Allen Lazard didn’t do much last week, but he should be a decent WR4/FLEX option given Aaron Rodgers‘ lack of alternatives.

Houston Texans

 
Takeaways: With Will Fuller suspended, we’re going to see a lot of Brandin Cooks over the rest of the season … both Fuller and Cooks have been exceptional deep threats this season, and Cooks will have WR1 upside with Fuller gone … Fuller’s suspension will also mean more targets for Keke Coutee … while he’s usually more of a short-range slot option, he may get some additional perimeter reps, too … David Johnson should be primed for some additional passing-game work once he returns from injury.

Indianapolis Colts

 
Takeaways: Michael Pittman has taken over this passing game … the Colts struggled to keep up with the Titans, so they won’t usually pass downfield this much, but their distribution of the workload suggests that Pittman and Burton are the best options to roster … that’s despite a late-game touchdown for T.Y. Hilton, who only got five targets to Pittman’s nine … I wouldn’t suddenly start to trust the washed-up wideout, as he only saw this degree of usage due to the game script … Burton should be a reliable TE1 moving forward — he got a sizeable share of both the air yards and targets (6) … despite his minimal air yards, Nyheim Hines totaled 66 receiving yards, which demonstrates his exceptional ability to turn short-yardage plays into bigger gains.  

Jacksonville Jaguars

 
Takeaways: Congratulations on the breakout, Collin Johnson! … the rookie out of Texas saw a ton of downfield looks from Mike Glennon with both D.J. Chark and Chris Conley sidelined … I don’t expect him to see a lot of targets once those two get healthy, but he’s someone to keep an eye on heading into next season … and if either Chark or Conley miss time, he could be in line for similar downfield work … Keelan Cole also got a ton of work, and he would benefit the most from a Chark or Conley absence … Laviska Shenault only got work close to the line of scrimmage, and it’s become clear that the Jaguars expect him to generate his yards after the catch.

Kansas City Chiefs

 
Takeaways: What a phenomenal game from Tyreek Hill … the veteran wideout ended up with the 15th-most receiving yards in a single game, and he’s a fantastic option at WR1 each week … Mecole Hardman had a solid chunk of air yards last week … the Chiefs mainly throw to him on short-range looks or on long-range targets, so his aDOT doesn’t tell you much about his usage … Sammy Watkins didn’t have to do a lot in his return to action, but he gets predictable enough usage to belong on your fantasy radar.

Las Vegas Raiders

 
Takeaways: The Raiders struggled to do anything against the Falcons last week, and the debacle was a worst-case scenario for their offense … after trailing Nelson Agholor for multiple weeks, Henry Ruggs led the team in air yards, although he only caught five of his passes for 54 yards … despite his short-range aDOT, Hunter Renfrow led the Raiders in total receiving yards (73), although I don’t expect him to get this usage moving forward … like I said, Week 12 was a worst-case scenario for Las Vegas … Nelson Agholor remains the safest fantasy option in this receiving corps due to his stable target share … likewise, Darren Waller’s dominant target share makes him a rock-solid start at TE1, although his short-range usage limits his value outside of PPR formats.

Los Angeles Chargers

 
Takeaways: You can always trust Justin Herbert to throw to his receivers deep … the Chargers lead the league with the most receivers in the top-10 for aDOT … while Keenan Allen usually doesn’t get those long-distance looks, he ranks first in the league in targets (122), so he doesn’t need them … that said, Austin Ekeler’s return could reduce his short-yardage target share … Mike Williams is one of the best high-upside receivers to roster, as he is likelier to pop off than both Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton and has a higher floor.

Los Angeles Rams

 
Takeaways: Another Sunday, another bad showing for the Rams’ passing attack … Robert Woods has not lived up to his high-floor reputation this season, as the Rams have pivoted away from the passing game and toward their three-back committee … Cooper Kupp has been the most affected, as he doesn’t get the number of targets to hit value at his short-range aDOT … it’s hard to feel confident about starting either Woods or Kupp as we head into the fantasy playoffs, especially as we’ve seen Josh Reynolds cement his role as the long-distance option.

Miami Dolphins

 
Takeaways: Ryan Fitzpatrick threw to a bunch of different people last week, but none more than DeVante Parker … he logged 14 targets and had a dominant share of the team’s air yards (53%) … with Preston Williams on IR and Isaiah Ford in New England, Parker’s surging performance down the stretch shouldn’t have been unexpected … Gesicki is the clear-cut second option in this offense, and he’s a solid, low-end TE1 with the lack of alternative weapons in this offense.

Minnesota Vikings

 
Takeaways: Adam Thielen missed last week’s game due as he was on the COVID-19/Reserve list, and Justin Jefferson filled in for him excellently … the rookie receiver may have ended up tying with four other players for the team lead in receptions (7), but he led the way in targets (13) … Thielen has since been activated from the reserve list, but Jefferson’s breakout has certainly made him a valuable asset, and he’s in the WR3/FLEX conversation each week … don’t expect Bisi Johnson or Chad Beebe to catch seven passes in a game again this season — or to get this many air yards … Beebe nearly doubled his season total!

New England Patriots

 
Takeaways: New England didn’t need to throw much (or deep) to beat an injured Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals … both Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd will be shaky WR4/FLEX plays at best in this offense due to how little the Patriots pass … I wouldn’t consider rostering N’Keal Harry at this point … James White now controls New England’s receiving game out of the backfield, and he should be a smart floor play at RB2/FLEX moving forward.

New Orleans Saints

 
Takeaways: With Taysom Hill under center, it seems unlikely that any of these pass-catchers will nab a touchdown … the Saints have scored seven times since he took over the offense, and all seven scores came on the ground … Michael Thomas is probably the only receiving weapon worth starting with him, as he’ll get enough mid-range looks to post fantasy-relevant numbers in PPR … the bigger story here is Alvin Kamara’s limited role, as the running back hasn’t been targeted much beyond the line of scrimmage … if you’re a Kamara manager and can still trade him, I would consider doing so unless you aren’t worried about your Week 14 matchup.

New York Giants

 
Takeaways: Evan Engram finally lived up to his incredible peripherals on Sunday with a strong showing against the Bengals … he caught six of his team-high nine targets for 129 yards … Sterling Shepard continues to be a shorter-range option than most in this offense, and I suspect that he’ll be in for more targets than usual if Colt McCoy has to start this game … Darius Slayton failed to catch either of his two long-range targets, but he (and the entire Giants passing game) have a fantastic matchup against the Seahawks this week, so he should bounce back from his goose-egg.

New York Jets

 
Takeaways: With their offense weapons and quarterback finally healthy, the Jets scored a whopping three points last week … Adam Gase is on the way out, and while both Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims have a lot of upside as long-range, deep-threat receivers, they’d probably be better off with Joe Flacco … Jamison Crowder has faded from fantasy-relevance now that both Mims and Perriman are healthy, and you can’t consider starting him if he’s only going to get five targets per game — his aDOT just isn’t deep enough for him to hit value.

Philadelphia Eagles

 
Takeaways: Carson Wentz stunk it up for the world to see on Monday Night Football … we can blame some of his struggles on his receivers’ inability to create separation (especially Reagor), but he’s regressed as a passer overall, and that should color our expectations for his pass-catchers … Dallas Goedert should remain a rock-solid TE1 even with Zach Ertz back if he gets this kind of usage … you can probably return Alshon Jeffery and Travis Fulgham to waivers at this point — if you can’t trust them against the Seahawks’ league-worst secondary, when can you?

Seattle Seahawks

 
Takeaways: Metcalf has been one of the best value picks this season … with Seattle’s poor defensive play, Russell Wilson will probably need to keep throwing his way downfield, too … Tyler Lockett hasn’t done much of late, but he’s always a threat to pop off for a multi-touchdown game, so I don’t think you can even think about benching him … with Greg Olsen down, Jacob Hollister, not Will Dissly, led the way among Seattle’s tight ends on Monday … he could be a decent streaming option if you’re truly desperate at the position. 

San Francisco 49ers

 
Takeaways: Who do you think led this team in receiving yards? The correct answer is Deebo Samuel, who logged just seven total air yards — he generated the rest of those yards himself … Nick Mullens frequently looked Jordan Reed’s way, and even though he caught only two passes, he should be a reliable streaming option moving forward … with Brandon Aiyuk activated off the COVID-19/reserve list, Bourne and James should see a downtick in usage moving forward … I usually comment on Jerick McKinnon’s positive air yards to suggest that he’s a valuable fantasy asset, but with both Raheem Mostert and Jeffrey Wilson healthy again, he just doesn’t get enough volume for me to trust.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
Takeaways: Tom Brady may have thrown to Mike Evans a lot, but he only hauled in three of his nine targets, finishing with just 50 receiving yards … in contrast, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski earned more receiving yards than their total air yards, which proves that they’re efficient options … meanwhile, Antonio Brown hasn’t done a whole lot for this offense, and I’d consider moving on from him if he didn’t have some high-value matchups moving forward … all of these receivers should make fantastic starts until the rest of the year, but one or two may bust if the game script doesn’t demand 40-plus passing attempts like it did last week.

Tennessee Titans

 
Takeaways: Derrick Henry did most of the work for Tennessee against Indianapolis, and as a result, Ryan Tannehill didn’t often have to throw far downfield … that said, Brown still posted incredibly strong fantasy numbers due to a big-time touchdown … Brown remains a fantastic high-upside WR1, while Corey Davis looks like a smart upside play at WR3/FLEX … the Titans have a confusing situation at tight end; fourth-stringer Geoff Swaim led the tight end room in air yards and targets (3) last week, while both Anthony Firkser and Jonnu Smith failed to catch a pass.

Washington Football Team

 
Takeaways: Washington put up a ton of points against Dallas, but most of that came via Antonio Gibson’s legs … as a result, Alex Smith only passed for 149 yards, 91 of which went to Terry McLaurin … he’s a rock-solid low-end WR1/high-end WR2 in this offense, as even when they don’t need to do much passing, he still gets a sufficient number of targets to post fantasy-relevant numbers … behind him, only Gibson and J.D. McKissic should be seen as reliable weekly contributors, although Logan Thomas has some value as a streamer.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.