Going back about 10 years ago, I remember what used to be my favorite day of the week. Each Thursday, my local radio station 670 The Score would do a segment with Paul Charchian talking fantasy football for an hour. Sports radio was always among my favorite things to listen to, as the music on the radio gets stale rather quickly, but the fantasy football talk on that show was the highlight of my week.
Fast-forward a few years and I discovered podcasts, which essentially changed my daily routine. I no longer needed to listen to the radio and all the commercials that were required. With podcasts, you listen on-demand, whenever you want, with no commercials.
Why am I telling you this story? Well, it has been brought to my attention a few times in the last year that not everyone knows about podcasts, how they work, and how you get them. I have a friend who knew I did podcasts but had no clue how to access them and if they cost anything.
One, they’re free. Two, you can access them in multiple ways. If you want to listen in your car, you can do that through your mobile device. Most phones nowadays have apps built into them with podcasts, but here are the links for those who can’t find them:
Apple
Google Play
Tune-In Radio
Stitcher
Those are the ways to listen on your phone. If you want to listen on your computer, that’s no problem. You can listen to our podcasts right through the website, right here. For the FantasyPros podcast, we have four episodes a week where we deliver as much information we can in each hour-long show. When it comes to fantasy football, knowledge is a way to reduce variance. I’m on every show, trying to guide you through the fantasy season, while my co-hosts Bobby Sylvester and Dan Harris try to keep me from going on tangents too often. We also bring in some of the most respected analysts in the industry to keep things fresh. Listen to podcasts, profit.
Matchup Links:
NYG at PHI | JAC at BUF | SEA at CAR | OAK at BAL | SF at TB | CLE at CIN | NE at NYJ | ARI at LAC | PIT at DEN | MIA at IND | GB at MIN | TEN at HOU | CHI at DET | WAS at DAL | ATL at NO
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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.
If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?
And before I forget, us here at FantasyPros hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving with your families!
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 46.0
Line: PHI by 6.0
QBs
Eli Manning: Fresh off his bye, Manning has now completed 36-of-49 passes for 419 yards and five touchdowns, all but locking him in as the starter for the foreseeable future. His completion percentage (69.0) is easily the best of his career (closest is 63.1 percent), while his 7.7 yards per attempt is his highest mark since way back in 2011. If you’re paying attention to QB Rating, his 96.6 is the best of his career. Now a matchup on the road against the Eagles whose secondary is ailing? Can he be trusted? Over the last five times he’s played on the road against them, here are his stat lines (most recent first): 366/3/2, 356/1/3, 189/1/2, 151/0/0, 246/0/0. So, he’s thrown for at least 350 yards in each of the last two games against them, but you’d hardly call his past a success against them in Philadelphia. On top of that, the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints in New Orleans, and we should know better than to expect back-to-back horrid performances from the Super Bowl champs. They’ve played five home games this year, and of them, they’ve allowed two of those quarterbacks to finish top-10. Cam Newton and Dak Prescott, who both totaled at least 4.9 fantasy points on the ground. Neither of them threw for more than 270 yards or two touchdowns, which kind of shows the ceiling they’ve allowed through the air. The lack of talent/injuries in the secondary is tempting and it puts Manning in the middling to high-end QB2 territory, but he’s far from a sure thing on the road as a six-point underdog.
Carson Wentz: What in the world happened to Wentz last week? The process for those who started him was right, though the results were not kind. After not having a multi-interception game since Week 13 of 2016, he threw three of them against an improving Saints defense. After throwing for at least 278 yards and two touchdowns in each of the previous six games, we’ll have to shake it off as a bad game. The Giants aren’t a defense that many have had success against, despite the perception that they’ve been bad. They’ve yet to allow a quarterback finish better than the QB8 this season and have played against Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton. Wentz completed 72 percent of his passes against them in Week 6 while throwing three touchdowns, so it’s clear he had no issues moving the ball. He also played against them in Week 3 of last year but finished with a measly 176 yards and one touchdown, and that game was in Philadelphia. The Giants have really struggled against the run without Damon Harrison and have allowed three straight 100-yard rushers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles lean on their run-game a bit more this week. Wentz is the only one to throw more than two touchdowns against the Giants, so it’s tempting to expect more, but he’s teetering on the QB1/QB2 radar with so many variables and limited upside in the matchup.
RBs
Saquon Barkley: The Eagles have been known as a brutal matchup for running backs, though Barkley started the movement that you don’t need to be scared of them, as they’ve now allowed three 100-yard rushers in their last five games. He posted a season-high 229 total yards against them in Week 6 while ripping off quite a few highlight-reel plays. Running backs are averaging just 22.4 touches per game (16.2 carries, 6.2 receptions) against the Eagles, which is the second-fewest in the league, and the Eagles figure to slow down their pace this week which could create even less plays for the slow-paced Giants, who averaged just 60.4 plays per game (sixth-fewest). We did find out that linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely to miss some time with a calf injury, which does upgrade Barkley’s matchup. He’s totaled at least 94 yards in every game this year and has scored at least one touchdown in 7-of-10 games, so he’s an every-week RB1, though the only concern is that he’s on the road against a desperate Eagles team. The oddsmakers have also projected the Giants for just 20 points, which is never a good thing. Barkley should be played as an RB1 in season-long leagues but approach with some caution in DFS.
Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement: I’ve stayed far away from this backfield all season, but I’m buying into Adams as a legitimate play in Week 12. In a week that was filled with disappointments, Adams was the lone bright spot for the Eagles totaling 72 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches against one of the league’s best run defenses. The part that makes me feel comfortable is that he saw six targets, which would signify he’s somewhat gamescript-proof. Of the 18 total possible carries/targets, he totaled 13 of them while Clement saw just four, and Smallwood has just one lone carry. The Giants traded defensive tackle prior to Week 8, which hasn’t worked out too well for them, as they’ve allowed back-to-back-to-back 100-yard rushers against them, and it’s not as if Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida, and Peyton Barber were the stiffest competition. Since losing Harrison, they’ve allowed 406 yards on 77 carries (5.27 yards per carry) and five total touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 receiving) to running backs over the last three weeks. Look, I understand that it’s worrisome playing a running back from the Eagles, but if you’re not going to use Adams here, you might as well drop him. He’s got the looks of a solid RB2 who has RB1 upside in this matchup. Smallwood can safely be dropped, while Clement is teetering on that point as well, though he’s one injury away from a bigger role (he can still be dropped in most 12-team leagues).
WRs
Odell Beckham: It was a low-volume game for the entire passing offense, so seeing Beckham walk away with 85 total yards and a touchdown should be considered a success. He’ll likely see a bit more volume this week against an Eagles secondary that’s been left starting Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox at cornerback. Maddox is now expected to miss this game with a knee injury, while Douglas also exited the game against the Saints with a knee injury and is considered day-to-day. Meanwhile, they also lost their starting slot cornerback Sidney Jones for multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This may sound odd, but the Eagles really need Jalen Mills back. One thing is certain… Beckham can go bananas on this secondary if they let him. They may have undrafted free agent rookie Chandon Sullivan and 2015 undrafted free agent De’Vante Bausby as their starters this week. No matter who is out there, Beckham is an elite WR1 play who would only struggle if Manning lost some of his sight and part of his arm during the six days in between games.
Sterling Shepard: Similar to Beckham, Shepard suffered from lack of volume last week. He saw just two targets against the Bucs, but that won’t be the case against the Eagles. With Sidney Jones out a few weeks, the Eagles have turned to Cre’Von LeBlanc in the slot, who allowed two catches for 24 yards and a touchdown on three targets in his coverage last week. While with the Bears the last two seasons, LeBlanc played rather well in a backup role, allowing just an 83.9 QB Rating in his coverage on 72 targets. It’s a matchup that isn’t as good as Beckham’s on the perimeter, but Shepard is talented enough where he’ll get his own consideration. The silver-lining of hope with him is that the Eagles double-teamed Michael Thomas last week and forced the Saints to go to someone else in the offense, which the Saints had no trouble doing. If the Eagles give Beckham the same treatment, it’d be Shepard who goes off. Consider him an upside WR3/4 option this week.
Alshon Jeffery: He saw just five targets against Marshon Lattimore last week, so totaling four catches for 33 yards isn’t too shocking, especially when we know that Wentz struggled. The last time these teams met, we saw Jeffery destroy them for 8/74/2 when the Giants chose to not shadow him with Janoris Jenkins. Not that Jenkins is a shutdown cornerback this year, but it was odd to say the least. Again, even if they choose to put Jenkins on him, he’s now allowed seven touchdowns on just 63 targets in coverage this year, including a 73 percent completion-rate and 13.6 yards per reception. His seven touchdowns in coverage are tied with Malcolm Butler for the worst in the NFL. There have been just four wide receivers who’ve totaled at least eight targets against the Giants, and each of them totaled at least six catches for 74 yards, including two 100-yard games. Prior to Week 11, Jeffery had seen at least eight targets in 5-of-6 games. He should be plugged back in as a solid WR2 this week.
Golden Tate: Doug Pederson did say that Tate would be much more involved against the Saints, and while that was true, his five-catch, 48-yard performance was very Agholor-esque. Still, he’s a full-time wide receiver in the offense, so we have to consider him as a legitimate fantasy option. The Giants have had rookie free agent Grant Haley covering the slot the last three weeks, and in that time he’s allowed 7-of-9 passing for 76 yards and a touchdown (Adam Humphries last week). Tate should be able to take advantage of the matchup with the inexperienced cornerback, and knowing he saw a team-high eight targets last week bodes well for his fantasy floor. He still ranked third in snaps behind both Jeffery and Agholor, but he played double the snaps (18 to 36) from Week 10 to Week 11, so that shouldn’t last much longer, if at all. If the Eagles exploit matchups like they should, Tate should be a WR3 at minimum this week.
Nelson Agholor: We knew it was going to be tough for him with Tate on the roster, but zero catches against the Saints and Eli Apple? He saw just two targets in the game, but with Tate playing double the snaps than his first game with the team meant Agholor was almost exclusively a perimeter wide receiver, which is where he’s really struggled over his career. After that performance, we cannot put him into lineups with any confidence. He totaled 91 yards in their first meeting, but that was while playing most of his snaps in the slot, and a lot of that came on one 58-yard catch, as he had just two catches for 33 yards the rest of the game. Agholor is not worth considering in season-long leagues and isn’t even worth a dart throw in tournaments.
TEs
Evan Engram: We knew it was a good matchup against the Bucs and we also knew that there was target risk with Engram in a game where the Giants had so many viable options, so walking away with two catches for 66 yards makes plenty of sense. The Eagles aren’t a team many have attacked with tight ends, as they’ve been the third-toughest matchup for tight ends this year. They’ve allowed just a 61.8 percent completion rate (24th), 6.73 yards per target (26th), and two touchdowns (28th) to the position. The only tight end who finished top-12 against them was O.J. Howard who caught just three passes, though one of them was a 75-yard touchdown. In the end, it’s just not a week you should feel pressured to play Engram, as he’s just a high-end TE2 in a bad matchup.
Zach Ertz: He came into the game against the Saints with no games that netted less than six targets, so when you see he saw just three targets, it’s a shocker, especially when you figure the gamescript would’ve helped. The time of possession in that game was ridiculous, as the Saints had the ball for 62.6 percent of the game. The Giants average just 47.8 percent time of possession, so that’s not going to happen this week. The Giants have done a solid job with tight ends this year, as there’ve been just three tight ends who’ve finished top-12 against them all season, though Ertz was one of them when he totaled 7/43/1 on nine targets. In fact, all three tight ends who finished top-12 required at least nine targets to get there. From an efficiency standpoint, the Giants allow the fifth-fewest points per target (1.51) to tight ends, so Ertz will need the targets to come back this week. You shouldn’t overreact to one bad week against what might be the best defense in the league against tight ends, so trot Ertz back out there as a high-end TE1. You don’t need to spend up for him in DFS cash lineups, but he’s always worth a shot in tournaments.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Total: 37.5
Line: JAX by 3.0
QBs
Blake Bortles: The Jaguars have done their best to hide Bortles behind their run-game, but they just couldn’t do it long enough against the Steelers, as Bortles couldn’t complete a pass when they needed him to. He dropped back to pass just 26 times against the Steelers, his second-lowest total of the season, though he still managed to fumble twice, losing one of them. Against the Bills, the Jaguars are likely to do the same exact thing, though the Bills don’t offer the firepower on offense to come back that the Steelers do. Since the start of Week 3, there’s been just one quarterback who’s finished as a top-18 quarterback against the Bills, and that was Andrew Luck who is on a historic streak right now. Including Luck’s four-touchdown game against them, the Bills have allowed just eight passing touchdowns over their last eight games while intercepting eight passes. Due to the lack of dropping back to pass, Bortles has also lost his luster to run the ball the last two weeks, as he’s totaled just 25 yards on four carries. He’s likely on a very short leash as the starting quarterback, so he’s nowhere near the streaming radar this week.
Josh Allen: We’re likely to get Allen this week, as he’s been practicing, and Sean McDermott has said he expects Allen to be under center against the Jaguars. The bad news is that you want nothing to do with him. Sure, the Jaguars have allowed three straight 20-point performances to quarterbacks, but they’ve also played Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger. Their defense played a great game against the Steelers, but were worn out by the end, as the offense went three-and-out on each of their last four possessions. We know better than to trust Allen throwing the ball, as he’s completed just 54 percent of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and five interceptions. Allen can likely deliver a floor with his rushing totals, as the Jaguars run a ton of man-coverage, which should allow him to take advantage of empty spaces on the field. The 206 rushing yards they’ve allowed to quarterbacks ranks as the fourth-most in the NFL, and they’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns to them as well, which ranks as the second-most. Because of that, he might make his way into the low-end QB2 conversation, but that’s about it.
RBs
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: Since returning to the lineup, Fournette has totaled a massive 52 carries and seven receptions. For those counting at home, that’s nearly 30 touches per game. The Bills have improved against the run this year, but they’re far from an elite unit that you need to stay away from. They’ve allowed 4.20 yards per carry on the year and have allowed a touchdown every 19.8 carries, which ranks as the third-most often in the league, behind only the Bucs and Falcons. The crazy part is that the Bills have allowed those numbers without allowing a single run of more than 40 yards this year. They’ve allowed five rushing touchdowns over the last four weeks, though the bye week should’ve allowed them to get a bit healthier. With the game highly unlikely to get away from the Jaguars, there’s not much risk with Fournette this week. You should lock him in as an elite RB1 who should post at least 100 total yards and a touchdown in this game. Yeldon shouldn’t be needed very much, as he’s someone who benefits from negative gamescript. Both him and Carlos Hyde are there to give Fournette breathers, though Yeldon gets more work in the passing-game. Consider Yeldon just a lackluster RB4 who might see just 5-8 touches this game.
LeSean McCoy: What in the world got into the Bills offense before their bye week? After totaling just 24 yards on 24 carries over the previous three games combined, McCoy tagged the Jets for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. It was just the second time all season he’s totaled more than 100 total yards, but it’s a step in the right direction. The fact that Allen is returning should help, as his splits with and without Allen in the lineup are notable. He’s totaled 221 yards on 54 carries (4.09 yards per carry) with Allen as the starter and 159 yards on 57 carries (2.79 yards per carry) without him, and that includes the Jets game. Unfortunately, the Jaguars matchup is a bad one for him, as they’ve allowed just 3.90 yards per carry and 1.33 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-lowest in the league. Despite their defense somewhat falling apart, they’ve still held Marlon Mack and James Conner to just 87 total yards with no touchdowns combined. McCoy is nothing more than a high-end RB3 in this game and not one you should feel the absolute need to play, though he’s locked into 15-plus touches.
WRs
Donte Moncrief: We knew that Moncrief would have his hands full against the Steelers and Joe Haden, but his one-catch, 11-yard performance should remind you why we really don’t want to trust Jaguars receivers. He’s going to see a lot of Tre’Davious White in this matchup, a cornerback who has allowed just a 53 percent completion rate and 10.6 yards per reception in his coverage. A lot of his targets in coverage are against the opponent’s top receiver, which makes his numbers even more impressive. If last week told us anything, it’s that the Jaguars are trying to hide Bortles, which could limit him to 20-25 attempts in this game. This isn’t a week where you should expect big volume from Bortles, so despite Moncrief’s No. 1 role on the team, he’s nothing more than a low-end, unattractive WR4 option in this game.
Dede Westbrook: He’s quietly seen 62 targets this season (30th among wide receivers), though his average depth of target is so small (7.4 yards) that it’s relying on him to do a lot after the catch. His 6.4 yards after the catch ranks 12th among receivers who’ve seen at least 30 targets. The Bills slot cornerback has been Taron Johnson, though he left the game against the Jets with a shoulder injury, so he’s likely going to be questionable for this game. If he’s out, that would leave Rafael Bush to fill his spot, which would be a big upgrade for Westbrook. Bush has allowed an 80 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year with 77 of his 144 yards allowed coming after the catch. If Bortles is throwing the ball, Westbrook is likely the one who should see the most targets, as the Bills have been beat deep (20-plus yards) just 25 times this year, which is the lowest mark in the league. Westbrook should be considered a mediocre WR4/5 if Johnson plays, but can be moved into the upside WR4 range if he sits. He’d be the Jaguars wide receiver I’d prefer in this matchup if you want to play one.
Kelvin Benjamin: This might be the worst part about The Primer, as Benjamin shouldn’t receive any consideration, but he continually sees 5-9 targets, so there’s bound to be someone who asks about him. Benjamin ranks as the second-worst receiver in fantasy with 1.00 fantasy points per target (him and Jermaine Kearse are the only receivers under 1.23), while the Jaguars allow the fourth-fewest points per target (1.53) in the NFL. This is not a good marriage. He’s not playable.
Zay Jones: He’s been the one stepping-up as of late, though going back to Allen likely won’t help his production. During the Week 2-6 time that Allen started, Jones didn’t top four catches in any game and failed to record more than 38 yards in 4-of-5 games. If there’s one thing the Jaguars struggle with, it’s slot receivers, which is where Jones plays most of the time. The Jags did get D.J. Hayden back the last two weeks, as he’d been out since Week 2, so they’re likely to improve in that area of the field as he gets reacclimated. The biggest issue with trusting Jones is more on Allen than anything, so he’s just a low-upside WR6-type option.
TEs
James O’Shaughnessy: After seeing a season-high six targets in Week 10, we saw O’Shaughnessy suffer to a lack of pass attempts against the Steelers, as he totaled just two targets. He ran 19 pass routes in the game while no other tight end totaled more than five routes, so it’s his job, though this isn’t a week to attack him as a streamer. The Bills have allowed a league-low 56 percent completion rate to tight ends, so when you combine that with Bortles’ inaccuracy, it’s not a great marriage. There’s been no tight end to post more than 55 yards against them this season and it’s the reason we’ve seen just one top-10 performance against them all season. He’d need a touchdown not to completely bust and it’s not as if you want to bet on that considering the Bills have allowed just eight passing touchdowns in their last eight games. He’s not a streamer this week.
Jason Croom: It appears that Charles Clay is still nursing a hamstring injury, so it’d be unwise to rely on his services this week. That leaves the combination of Croom and Logan Thomas to run the routes for Josh Allen. Despite Thomas’ breakout performance against the Bears where he totaled seven catches for 40 yards, he ran just six routes against the Jets and saw one target while Croom ran 12 routes but saw no targets. It’s clearly a situation to avoid, as even Clay hadn’t topped 40 yards with Allen under center. There’s been just two tight ends who’s caught more than three passes against the Jaguars and they were Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. Clearly, you’re not interested in starting any Bills tight end this weekend.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Total: 47.0
Line: CAR by 3.5
QBs
Russell Wilson: Despite throwing for less than 250 yards in each of the last nine games they’ve played, Wilson has now thrown 16 touchdowns over the last six games. His touchdowns cannot continue at this rate, though the matchup with the Panthers kind of suits his recent production rather well. They’ve allowed a 6.1 percent touchdown rate to opposing quarterbacks this year, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league. Matthew Stafford was just the third quarterback who’s failed to throw at least two touchdowns against them this year, so the fantasy floor has been rather high for quarterbacks against the Panthers. They’ve also allowed 7-of-10 quarterbacks to rush for at least 13 yards, which may not sound like much, but it shows a consistency that we like for our quarterbacks. Wilson has ramped up his rushing over the last three games, rushing the ball 19 times for 150 yards. The passing yardage is an issue, as is his ultra-high touchdown rate, but knowing how well Wilson has played in the second-half of the season over his career, he should be locked-in as a middling to low-end QB1 this week.
Cam Newton: His stat line from last week looks mighty good, but Newton missed when it counted most as his coach relied on him to convert a two-point conversion with no time left. He dropped back and stood flat-footed for a good five seconds before completely missing Jarius Wright (two yards to high, two yards behind him), who was wide open in the middle of the end zone. Newton got his ankle rolled-up on during the game, though it was in the fourth quarter, so it’s puzzling why he ran the ball just twice. Over the last two weeks, he’s run the ball just four times for 12 yards, which is odd considering his first eight games netted at least five attempts and 29 yards in every game. Newton has now thrown multiple touchdowns in nine straight games, which is easily the longest streak of his career. The Seahawks haven’t been a great matchup for quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just one top-10 performance all season, and that was to Aaron Rodgers last week. They’ve still yet to allow more than 21.6 fantasy points to any quarterback, which no other team can say. We saw a similar quarterback in Mitch Trubisky total 200 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and 24 rushing yards against them, so there’s not an elite performance on the surface. I’d be curious to find out why Newton isn’t running the ball much the last two weeks, as he’ll likely want to in this matchup. Consider him a low-end QB1 who should at least offer a stable floor.
RBs
Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Mike Davis: With Carson back in the lineup, it was clearly his show against the Packers as he racked up 17 touches compared to eight for Penny and six for Davis. It’s hard to blame the Seahawks, as Carson looks fantastic in the lead role, averaging a rock-solid 4.5 yards per carry on the year. During the weeks he’s played the whole game, he’s totaled at least 14 touches in each of his last five games, while Davis and Penny fight for the scraps. The Panthers haven’t been the elite run-defense that we’ve come to know under Ron Rivera, as they’ve now allowed 4.31 yards per carry on the season, though they have allowed just five rushing scores, which is tied for the eighth-fewest in the league. The odd part is that there’s been no running back to total more than 17 carries against them this year, and that’s likely because they’re facing an average of just 18.6 carries per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. With Carson playing just 42.9 percent of the snaps last week, this is cause for concern, as they’re going to involve the other running backs, even if it’s just 4-8 carries, it all matters in a matchup with limited volume. Knowing that Carson hasn’t seen a target since back in Week 8, he’s not the safest option, making him a high-end RB3 who’s far from a sure thing. Penny and Davis are nothing more than hail-mary options, though Davis is the one who plays the bigger part in the passing-game, so he’d be the one I’d play of the two, if forced.
Christian McCaffrey: It’s rare in today’s NFL to find a running back who averages 19.6 touches per game, but that’s precisely where we are with McCaffrey, who has totaled 196 of the 248 running back touches (79 percent) in this offense. Running backs are averaging just 23.5 touches per game against the Seahawks, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the league, but when you’re getting near 80 percent of the workload, that still amounts to almost 19 touches. When it comes to efficiency, the Seahawks aren’t a bad matchup for McCaffrey, as they allow 4.50 yards per carry and 7.09 yards per target to running backs, which are both below-average for a defense in today’s game. There’ve been eight running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 yards through the air against them, including 63 yards and a touchdown to Aaron Jones last week. Prior to that game, Jones hadn’t totaled more than 27 yards through the air this season. The area of concern is one where we always have concern with McCaffrey, as running backs have totaled a league-low 26 red zone touches against the Seahawks. He should be in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 this week with all the touches he’s getting.
WRs
Doug Baldwin: We knew the variance would start going to Baldwin at some point, right? He’s been seeing just as many targets as Lockett and Moore, but the lack of touchdowns were killing the perception, and rightfully so considering the lack of yardage out of Wilson this year. The slot matchup against the Panthers is the best one on the field, as Captain Munnerlyn has been consistently mediocre while the other cornerbacks have flashed at times. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen Bruce Ellington post 6/52/0, JuJu Smith-Schuster post 3/90/1, and Adam Humphries post 8/82/2 against the Panthers. As a team, they’ve allowed 11 top-40 performances against them with six of them being primarily slot receivers. Baldwin is not the lock-and-load WR2 he’s been in years past, as he’s seen more than five targets just once in the last four games, but he’s trending in the right direction, as he said he’s fully healthy again. Baldwin should be considered a high-end WR3 who has the best matchup among the Seahawks wide receivers. Update: Baldwin is considered a true game-time decision for this matchup with a groin injury, which is far from ideal. This game does take place during the noon set of games, so at least we’ll know early. Even if he does play, you have to downgrade him to a risky WR4 who may not finish the game.
Tyler Lockett: He’s been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football this year, as his 77.6 percent catch-rate ranks behind only Michael Thomas of wide receivers with at least 30 targets. He’s also caught a touchdown every 7.0 targets, which was always going to regress. His 2.87 PPR points per target is the most in the NFL (min. 30 targets). He’ll see a lot of Donte Jackson this week, the rookie cornerback who has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed this year. He’s definitely had some hiccups, as he’s allowed an ultra-high 69.8 percent completion rate in his coverage, but doesn’t get burned down the field very often, as evidenced by his 12.0 yards per reception allowed. Yes, Antonio Brown burned him down the sideline, but there was some amazing technique on Brown’s part in that route. Knowing that Lockett has seen just 21 targets over the last five games is concerning because he’ll need to rely on crazy efficiency to live up to the WR3 status that most expect. No wide receiver has finished top-40 against them with less than five targets, so Lockett owners had better hope for an increase in pass attempts here. Lockett is on the high-end WR4 radar in this matchup, but not one you should feel like you absolutely must play. Update: With Baldwin very questionable for this game, it moves Lockett up into WR3 territory, as there should be more targets coming his way.
David Moore: Knowing that Baldwin will see Captain Munnerlyn and that Lockett will likely see speedster Donte Jackson, that would leave James Bradberry for Moore. It’d be the toughest matchup he’s had all year, though Bradberry has allowed a touchdown in five of the last seven games. The 107.2 QB Rating in his coverage is easily a career-worst, as his first two years netted ratings of 85.5 and 81.6 in his coverage. He’s had some matchups with Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay in that stretch, so maybe we shouldn’t be too tough on him. Moore is a solid and competent receiver, but he’s not someone who you need to force targets to, even though he saw a season-high eight targets against the Packers last week. He should be considered a WR4/5-type option who might have the toughest matchup on the field.
Devin Funchess (Doubtful): He’s quickly losing the grip one the No. 1 receiver in the offense, as Moore has taken full advantage of his opportunity. Funchess let an end zone target go right off his chest last week and caught just 2-of-8 targets for 39 yards in a plus-matchup against the Lions. He’s now gone four straight weeks without eclipsing 44 yards despite matchups against the Bucs, Steelers, and Lions in that span. Newton’s completion rate to Funchess is 60.3 percent, while it’s 74.7 percent to the combination of Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Jarius Wright. His matchup for 55-60 percent of the game this week will be against Tre Flowers, the fifth-round rookie who’s struggled at times. He’s 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, so he’s got plenty of size to hang with Funchess, but he’s also allowed over 14 yards per catch, and has allowed three touchdowns on 46 targets in coverage this year. It’s tough to know if Funchess will break out of his funk, but the matchup against the Seahawks is the most favorable among the receivers. Consider him a WR4 who should provide a decent floor in this matchup. Update: Funchess has been downgraded to doubtful for this game, which means Curtis Samuel is likely going to start in his place and get more snaps. If you were relying on Funchess, it’d be wise to grab Samuel now.
D.J. Moore: It was only a matter of time before Moore had a game like the one he did in Week 11, as he’s been schemed into the offense in a lot of different ways and has phenomenal ability after the catch. The issue with relying on startable performances every week is that this offense has a lot of different options who can contribute every week. That’s why we saw Moore total just 36 yards over the previous two weeks combined, including just one catch for 16 yards against the Bucs. Keep in mind that he’s been a full-time player since Week 8, so it’s not as if he saw a big snap increase that led to his breakout performance. He’ll match-up with Shaquill Griffin for most of the day, who was supposed to be their replacement for Richard Sherman. While he hasn’t lived up to that billing, he’s allowed just an 86.4 QB Rating in his coverage this year, which is the lowest among the three starting cornerbacks. He’s also allowing just 3.9 yards after the catch, so it’s not as good of a matchup as last week’s against the Lions. He’s likely surpassed Funchess on the pecking order, though his matchup isn’t as good this week. Moore is still in the WR4 conversation due to his rise up the depth chart. Update: With Funchess looking unlikely to suit up, Moore should be in line for more targets than initial expected, nudging him into WR3 territory.
TEs
Nick Vannett: Even though Ed Dickson got the touchdown last week, it was his only target in the game. Since Dickson returned to the lineup, he’s totaled just five targets in four games, while Vannett has seen 15 in that time. This is important because the matchup against the Panthers is a great one. They’ve allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team in the league through 11 weeks and it’s not all that close anymore. They’ve allowed 182.8 PPR points to the position (18.3 per game) while the next closest team has allowed 162.9 points (Bucs). There have been eight different tight ends who’ve posted a top-12 performance against them, and a big reason for that is due to the touchdown every 9.1 targets they’ve allowed. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends while no other team has allowed more than seven of them. Knowing that these two tight ends have combined for just 20 targets over the last four games is worrisome, but the matchup says that one of them should perform like a TE1. While it’s tough to rank either of them as a bonafide top-10 option, Vannett is on the high-end TE2 radar and a decent streamer.
Greg Olsen: He’s now scored in four of the last five games, though he’s seen declining yardage in each of the last few games, bottoming out at just two catches for nine yards last week (though it somehow still netted a top-10 fantasy performance). With the lack of surefire starters at tight end, you’ll have to accept the good with the bad from Olsen and the Panthers offense. The Seahawks defense has been really good against tight ends this year, holding every single one of them to 12 or less PPR points, which means none of them have finished as a top-six option, which is where Olsen is ranked nearly every week. Bradley McDougald has been phenomenal stepping in for Kam Chancellor and has held every tight end to 52 yards or less, while intercepting two passes in the process. They have allowed a rather-high 72.9 percent completion rate to tight ends but have also held them to just 10.0 yards per reception, which is one of the lower marks in the league. Olsen should still be considered a TE1 this week, but it’s not a week to expect a massive performance or one to play him heavily in DFS.
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 42.5
Line: BAL by 11.0
QBs
Derek Carr: After not turning in a single touchdown as an offense in three of the last four games, Carr threw two touchdowns against a Cardinals defense that had allowed a league-low 10 passing touchdowns coming into the game. Did I mention he did that without his top two wide receivers and on the road? Not only was he down Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant for that game, but he also lost Brandon LaFell to an Achilles injury during the game. Carr only threw for 192 yards, but it just goes to show how inconsistent he’s been regardless of matchup. Now he’ll go against the Ravens, a team that’s allowed just 14 passing touchdowns on the season (fourth-fewest) and 223.5 passing yards per game (second-fewest) while in Baltimore. They’ve allowed just one quarterback to eclipse 274 yards against them this season and that’s despite four quarterbacks throwing 42 or more pass attempts. The 6.24 yards per attempt that they allow ranks as the best in football, while the closest team (Bills) sits at 6.50 yards per attempt. You really never know with Carr, but he’s outside QB2 range this week from a logical standpoint.
Lamar Jackson: It appears that Jackson will be asked to start again this week, as Joe Flacco‘s hip injury is rumored to be a multi-week issue. Jackson filled in against the weak front-seven of the Bengals last week and it allowed him to rush for 117 yards on a remarkable 27 carries. By comparison, there’s been no other quarterback who’s totaled more than 13 carries in a game this year. In 2017, there was no quarterback who totaled more than 14 carries in a game. In 2016, there was none who totaled more than 12 carries. Do you get my point? While Jackson is a difference-maker running the ball, this cannot continue, as they nearly lost the game to a hopeless Bengals team that recently hired Hue Jackson ( I wish I were making this up). Now, the Raiders aren’t much better, as they’ve allowed 29.3 points per game this year, which is third-most right behind… you guessed it, the Bengals and the Bucs. Oddly enough, the Raiders have allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (2.32) to running backs this year and just one rushing touchdown, which was to Case Keenum back in Week 2. The Raiders are a team that’s continually exploited through the air, as they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 9-of-10 games this year, including three to Josh Rosen last week. The way to beat the Raiders is through the air, but judging by Jackson’s passing performance in Week 11, it may not be wise for the Ravens to throw the ball all that much. One note that I’ll throw in is that the Raiders have generated just a 3.09 sack percentage, which ranks second-worst in the league, and Jackson was 10-of-12 for 110 yards against the Bengals when kept clean in the pocket. His rushing floor has to be somewhere in the range of 60 yards, which essentially gives him 1.5 passing touchdowns to start the game. He should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week in a plus-matchup, though he’s going to have to do something through the air to really hit big value.
RBs
Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: It’s unlikely that when this article is published on Wednesday night that we’ll know much about Martin’s ankle injury, though Jon Gruden apparently expects him to be okay for the game against the Ravens. Not that it matters much, as you don’t want to start Martin if you can help it. He’s still yet to score a touchdown this season, has yet to eclipse 15 carries, and will be going against a Ravens defense who has allowed just 3.47 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns all season. They’re fresh off a game against Joe Mixon where they held him to just 14 yards on 12 carries. He did score, but you should know that there hasn’t been one single running back who’s totaled at least 64 rushing yards AND a touchdown against them through 11 weeks. Martin is non-existent in the passing-game, so he can be safely benched in this matchup as he’s just a low-upside RB4. Richard is a better option, though not much better. The Ravens have also held all but three running backs to 20 yards or less through the air. The 8.08 PPR points per game they allow through the air is the second-lowest mark in the league to the Titans. Heck, even Christian McCaffrey totaled just four catches for 11 yards against them. Richard is just a low-end RB3 who does at least offer you a decent floor with how many pass-catchers are out.
Gus Edwards and Alex Collins: Well, ladies and gents… the process was right, the result was (somewhat) right, but the player was wrong. After Collins scored a touchdown on the opening drive, I thought to myself, “here we go.” After that, I was sad. For those who said anyone should’ve seen this coming, I present to you Edwards’ snap counts in the previous three games: 7, 8, 2. Yeah, nobody saw that coming. But it just teaches me a very valuable lesson – that Ravens running backs are never a sure thing. Some will want to know whether Edwards is the one moving forward. Well, it’s hard to say he’s not. The Ravens had their bye week to prepare for the Bengals in a must-win game, and they implemented a plan where Edwards was the go-to guy. He played extremely well racking up eight broken tackles and 115 yards on 17 carries. His 49 snaps were much higher than Collins’ 17 snaps, so it wasn’t just luck of the draw. The Raiders have now allowed five straight teams to rack up 112-plus rushing yards against them (with just running backs alone) and have allowed an average of 131.0 rushing yards per game, which is the highest mark in the NFL. It’s possible that they like Edwards more with Jackson under center in the type of offense they’re running, so we have to anoint him as the one to play in fantasy leagues. Even if it’s somewhat of a timeshare, the Raiders have faced 25 or more running back carries in seven of the last nine games, so it could be something similar to last week. Edwards should be played as a solid RB2, though as we’ve discussed, he’s far from a sure thing. As for Collins, he’s nothing more than an upside RB4 who’s more talented than most in his range. Update: Collins missed some practice this week with a foot injury, which only furthers the Edwards hype train. Collins is listed as questionable, though his practice participation trended upward as the week went on.
WRs
Seth Roberts: The Ravens are a brutal matchup for most wide receivers, let alone a team full of backups. Roberts did see seven targets with Nelson and Bryant out last week, which is solid volume for someone available in 99 percent of leagues. His matchup with Tavon Young is the best on the field, as he’s allowed a 68.6 percent catch-rate in his coverage, along with three touchdowns on 35 targets. This isn’t anything new, either, as he allowed a 68.7 percent catch-rate and five touchdowns on 83 targets as a rookie. The Ravens apparently don’t feel very comfortable with Marlon Humphrey or Jimmy Smith in the slot, which is why Young is there. If you’re looking for someone on the waiver wire who should see six-plus targets, Roberts is that guy, though his upside is the WR4 range. The Ravens have still yet to allow a receiver total more than 91 yards against them.
John Brown: You had to know that going with Lamar Jackson, it was going to limit the passing volume in the offense, but we couldn’t have predicted just four combined targets for Brown and Crabtree. Brown saw just one target which totaled 23 yards, but it’s now an issue for us moving forward. It really stinks, too, because the Raiders have allowed a league-high 11 plays of 40-plus yards this season. It’s not to say that Brown can’t catch a bomb from Jackson, but there’s going to be limited opportunity. Most would be shocked to hear that the Raiders have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver this season, but it’s true. They’ve allowed an NFL-low 106 receptions to them, though the touchdown every 11.7 targets they allow to receivers is pretty remarkable (3rd-most often). We know they allow the big-play, so it’s not shocking to hear that allow the second-highest yards per reception (14.7) to the position. This matchup actually suits Brown well, but we just need Jackson to give him more than one opportunity. Consider Brown a high-end WR4 who comes with a very low floor, though it takes just one play for him to reach WR3 heights.
Michael Crabtree: It’s now been three straight weeks where Crabtree has totaled three or less catches with 32 or less yards. He saw three targets from Jackson last week, though they netted just one catch for seven yards. Crabtree is a guy who’s not going to rack up yardage at this point in his career and has been living off touchdowns the last four years. The issue is that Joe Flacco and Jackson aren’t quarterbacks who will throw for multiple touchdowns very often. He’s going to match-up with Gareon Conley most of the day, who is likely the best cornerback on the Raiders roster, as he’s allowed just a 53 percent catch-rate in his coverage this season, while allowing just one touchdown on 32 targets. While Brown has the ability to change his fantasy outlook on one single play, Crabtree is not as fortunate, making him just a low-end WR4 and not one who needs to be played, though I’m sure he’d love to stick it to his former team.
Willie Snead: It was odd to see Snead see 8-of-13 wide receiver targets last week, as he performed nearly identical to the way he has been with Flacco under center. It made some sense given the matchups for Brown and Crabtree, but it could be a trend in Jackson’s progressions and that he will often check down to the underneath receiver if he’s not scrambling. The Raiders have rookie Nick Nelson covering the slot as of late, though he’s likely going to move to the bench after his 83-yard, two-touchdown performance he allowed in his coverage against the Cardinals. It’s likely they put Daryl Worley in the slot considering Rashaan Melvin is back in Jon Gruden’s good graces. Worley isn’t a terrible matchup, either, as he’s allowed 244 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage this year on just 26 targets. It’s difficult to say that Snead is anything more that a WR4/5 option due to his lack of ceiling, though.
TEs
Jared Cook: The pass-catchers continue to drop like flies around him, which means Cook will not go away no matter how much you thought he would. He’s totaled 15 targets over the last two weeks, so he’s squarely on the TE1 radar when they head out to Baltimore. The Ravens have been so good against wide receivers that we’ve seen tight ends perform out of necessity against them. They’ve only allowed three touchdowns to the position, but they allow an average of 5.4 receptions for 63.8 yards per game to opponents. There’s been just three tight ends who’ve seen at least five targets against them, and the lines of those tight ends were: Ben Watson 6/43/1, David Njoku 6/69/0, and Vance McDonald 5/62/0. Nothing too out of this world, but good enough for TE1 production. His volume should carry him into the top-12 this week.
Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst: The offense changed quite a bit last week, enough to the point where you don’t even want to consider either of these tight ends this week. With Jackson under center, the Ravens had Nick Boyle out there for the most snaps (by far) and it led to Andrews running just nine routes, and Hurst running just six routes. The Raiders are a terrible at defending the tight end position across the board, but none of it matters if these tight ends aren’t on the field getting opportunities. Unless something drastically changes, the process to play one of these tight ends outside of a tournament is wrong.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 55.0
Line: TB by 3.5
QBs
Nick Mullens: Streaming this week isn’t pretty, but Mullens can potentially save the day with a matchup against the Bucs. They’ve have been the most generous defense to opposing quarterbacks while allowing a 74.7 percent completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 7.44 percent touchdown rate. With numbers like that, you wonder how they haven’t allowed the most points to quarterbacks. It took Alex Smith down three offensive linemen, two starting wide receivers, and his best pass-catching back to hold a quarterback below 17 fantasy points. We saw Eli Manning complete 17-of-18 passes against them last week for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterbacks are only averaging 33.6 pass attempts per game against them, but knowing it’s been enough to produce fantasy points, that’s all we care about. I’m not bold enough to say he’s a low-end QB1, but you should know that 8-of-10 quarterbacks have finished as top-12 options against the Bucs. Consider him a middling QB2 with QB1 upside and someone who should be considered a high-floor streamer.
Jameis Winston: He’s back. In his offseason profile, I talked about combining his and Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s numbers from 2017 and that they would’ve led the NFL in passing yards. Combining their numbers in 2018 would be even bigger, as the two have combined for 3,746 yards, 25 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 277 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns. Together, that would be 247.5 fantasy points, which would rank behind only Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff. Knowing that they’ve gone back-and-forth with the two, Winston will have a much longer leash in his first few games. The 49ers might be the perfect defense for him, too, as they’ve allowed 21 passing touchdowns, but have intercepted just two passes all year, which is the second-fewest, only to the other sideline (the Bucs). They lack depth in their secondary and that’ll hurt against the Bucs and their four starting wide receivers. There have been just three quarterbacks all year to not finish top-15 against the 49ers and each of them threw the ball 25 times or less. I don’t think we need to worry about that with Winston, as the Bucs are averaging 41.1 attempts per game. He’s a rock-solid QB1 this week and one you should be willing to trust.
RBs
Matt Breida and Alfred Morris: The last time we saw Breida, he looked like an All-Pro against the Giants defense, destroying them for 132 total yards and two touchdowns. He out-touched Morris 20-9, so it’s still somewhat of a timeshare, but Breida is earning more trust by the week. To keep up with the Bucs offense, they’ll want him on the field against a Bucs defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to running backs over their last six games. Their defense is ailing and have trended way down since losing Kwon Alexander a month back. They were also without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Justin Evans last week, so it just continues to get worse. The 17 total touchdowns they’ve allowed to running backs this year is the worst in the NFL, as no other team has allowed more than 15. For those doing the math at home, that’s 1.7 touchdowns per game to running backs. Breida has five touchdowns this year to just one for Morris, so fire him up as a rock-solid RB2 this week who shouldn’t let you down. As for Morris, he’s someone who could fall into the end zone in this game, but knowing the potential gamescript, he could be phased out, making him a touchdown-dependent RB4.
Peyton Barber: We did like Barber last week, but had I known he’d go over 100 yards, I would’ve played him in DFS. He’s now totaled at least 61 rushing yards in three of his last four games, with touchdowns in two of them, so maybe the offensive line is starting to show some continuity? The 49ers haven’t been a matchup to target on the ground this year, though, as they’ve allowed just 3.94 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns through 10 games. Over the last three weeks, they’ve held the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants entire teams of running backs to 80 yards or less on the ground. They have allowed 151 receiving yards in those three games combined, but Barber isn’t utilized in the passing-game, as he’s caught just five passes for 18 yards over the last five games. He’s still a starting running back who’s going to get 12-15 touches, so he doesn’t fall outside the RB3 range, but he’s not nearly as attractive this week.
WRs
Marquise Goodwin: The Goodwin/Mullens connection was much better in the second game, as Goodwin saw five targets and turned them into 4/69/0 against the Giants secondary. The bye week also likely allowed this team to get healthy enough to take part in a shootout against the Bucs. They’ve allowed 2.21 PPR points per target to wide receivers this year, which is the second-highest number in the league (behind the Lions) and that’s despite allowing just 12.0 yards per reception. How is that possible? Well, they allow a 76.8 percent completion rate to wide receivers, while no other team in the NFL has allowed higher than 70.4 percent. Their cornerbacks and safeties have combined to allow 142-of-185 passes directed at wide receivers to be completed. They’ve also allowed 42 pass plays to go for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the second-most to only the Rams. Goodwin has proven he’s not a consistent play, but this matchup should give him an opportunity to have one of his better games, making him a solid WR4-type play with upside.
Pierre Garcon: After missing their Week 10 game, Garcon is expected to return to the lineup, which is good news for Mullens, who targeted him five times in the Week 9 game. His knee injury is worth monitoring throughout the week, but the matchup is a solid one. He’s likely to see Brent Grimes most of the day, who has been the best of the Bucs cornerbacks, though that’s not saying much. He’s still allowed a 68 percent catch-rate in his coverage and 15.0 yards per reception, but just one touchdown. We all know Garcon doesn’t score touchdowns, right? I mean, he scored one in Week 9, but it was his first touchdown since Week 14 of 2016. The matchup seems to add up to a game where I’d project Garcon for six targets, four receptions, and 50 yards. While that’s not going to win you the week, he does provide a somewhat stable floor, provided he practices all week. He’s a low-upside WR4/5 option.
Mike Evans: It was good to see Evans get back into the WR1 conversation in a good matchup last week, and it only took seven targets for him to net 120 yards and a touchdown. Hopefully his injury woes are behind him. With Winston back under center, some may expect Evans to regress, but I’m not one of them. I believe the splits with Fitzpatrick were more variance than anything. Evans lines up at LWR and in the slot about 65 percent of the time, which means he’ll be away from Richard Sherman most of the day. He’ll see a lot of Ahkello Witherspoon in coverage, which is a really good thing for Evans’ owners. He’s been benched before, but the 49ers have had to go back to him with all the injuries they’ve dealt with in the secondary. He’s allowed a touchdown once every 10 targets in his coverage and quarterbacks have been rocking a 113.7 QB Rating when throwing at him this year. He’s got solid size at 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, but Evans’ athleticism should shine against the big cornerback. There have been five wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 100 yards against them this year. Evans is a stud WR1 for this game.
DeSean Jackson: As it turns out, Godwin’s missed practice time last week did net more snaps for Jackson, as he played a season-high 53 snaps against the Giants. After popping off for 110-plus yards in three of the first four games, Jackson has now gone six straight games with less than 80 yards. He gets the opportunities with Winston under center, though they have been off in their connection by inches it seems. He’ll see the most of Richard Sherman in coverage, which is the toughest matchup on the field, as Sherman has allowed just 11-of-24 passing in his coverage and a piddly 5.6 yards per target. He’s not quite the elite cornerback he once was, and Jackson is a veteran who should know how to expose his weaknesses, but it’s also not a matchup you should expect to be targeted very much. Jackson has also struggled against zone coverage this year, as his quarterbacks have a 78.5 QB Rating when targeting him in zone, while they’ve posted a much-higher 116.0 QB Rating when targeting him in man coverage. He should be considered a boom-or-bust WR4 in this matchup.
Chris Godwin: After missing some practice time last week, Godwin found himself down as the No. 4 wide receiver on the pecking order, as he played a season-low 23 snaps, 30 behind Jackson. Pay attention to his participation, as that’ll likely affect his involvement in the offense. Godwin has been used all over the formation, so he doesn’t have a specific cornerback matchup, though his slot usage is encouraging. He’s run 30 percent of his snaps in the slot, and he’s been targeted on 18.2 percent of those routes. This is big because of the five receivers who’ve totaled 100-plus yards against the 49ers, four of them have been slot-heavy receivers. He’s risky for sure, but Godwin has flashed before and should be on the upside WR4 radar this week, provided he practices all week.
Adam Humphries: This is kind of nuts, but since the start of Week 6, Humphries is the No. 13 wide receiver in PPR formats, ahead of guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Alshon Jeffery. No, I’m not kidding. He’s totaled at least 53 yards in 5-of-6 games, including each of his last four games. And now, he’s heading into a matchup with the 49ers, who have allowed four 100-yard games to slot-heavy wide receivers. Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling all posted at least 100 yards through the air against them. While K’Waun Williams isn’t a terrible cornerback, he’s stuck in zone coverage half the time, and it’s led to some big games. He’s not a lock into lineups no matter what type of guy, but he’s obviously a big part of this offense regardless what’s going on with Godwin/Jackson. With a game that’s got a 55-point over/under, Humphries can be played as a solid WR4 who is approaching WR3 territory in PPR formats.
TEs
George Kittle: Fantasy owners can breathe, as Kittle is returning from his bye week. He’s joined the elite tier of tight ends that must be started every week and nothing about this matchup worries you. The Bucs have been what might be the worst defense in the league against tight ends, even if they rank as the second-worst in fantasy points allowed. Why? Well, the consistency of great performances against them. There have been six tight ends who’ve posted 15 or more PPR points against them, while no other team has allowed more than four such performances. You want a floor? They’ve allowed at least 8.4 PPR points to 9-of-10 tight ends, which is pretty much TE1 territory this year. In two games with Mullens under center, Kittle has seen 14 targets, which netted 13 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown. He’s an elite must-play TE1.
Cameron Brate: Now that we know O.J. Howard will miss the remainder of the season, we’ve got Brate full-time. He should be able to step in and be just fine, as he’s got plenty of rapport with Winston. The 49ers have been a middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to defending tight ends, as they’ve allowed both Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham to top 100 yards, but they’ve held all other tight ends under 50 yards. It should be noted that just one of those tight ends who were held under 50 yards saw more than five targets, so with limited opportunity comes limited results. Between Brate and Howard this year, they’ve combined to average 7.4 targets per game. While it’s not certain that Brate sees all that volume, he should be locked into five-plus targets and considered a solid middling TE1.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 47.5
Line: CIN by 3.0
QBs
Baker Mayfield: It was a tease to see Mayfield have the best game of his young career and then go on bye the following week. Here’s a game where there should be plenty of scoring opportunities, as the Bengals opponents average 71.9 plays per game, while the Browns opponents average 72.3 plays per game. The Bengals defense has been a mess with all the injuries they’ve dealt with, which led them to fire their defensive coordinator (and bring in Hue Jackson as a special assistant). There’s been just two games this year where the Bengals have held the opposing quarterback(s) less than 18.7 points, and they were to Ryan Tannehill, who was way back in Week 5 before the injuries started to pile up, and then last week to Lamar Jackson, who scored 15.7 points, though he should be considered more of a running back than anything. Mayfield has now thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games, so he can be trusted. The Bengals also lack much of a pass-rush, as their 5.61 percent sack-rate is seventh-lowest in the league. Their linebackers are dinged-up and couldn’t contain Jackson, but it’s been a problem all year, as they’ve allowed a league-leading 300 rushing yards to quarterbacks and three rushing touchdowns to them. Mayfield is in the low-end QB1 conversation this week and makes for a solid streamer.
Andy Dalton: He played a very respectable game last week against the Ravens, especially when you consider he was without A.J. Green, but we must remember it was a divisional game and was the second time the two teams played this year. Here’s another divisional game, but unlike the Ravens, the Bengals haven’t seen the Browns at all this year. Their pass-rush had slowed down over their last five games, as the team just seemed burnt out from all the time they were spending on the field. They averaged 2.8 sacks per game in Weeks 1-5, but then averaged just 2.0 sacks from Weeks 6-10. The Bengals protection has been okay with Dalton, but my guess is that he’ll be under a bit more pressure this week. There’s apparently hope that Green will play this week, though it’s far from guaranteed. There have been four quarterbacks who’ve posted top-12 numbers against the Browns, and three of them threw the ball 52-plus times, with the only one who didn’t being Patrick Mahomes. Dalton has averaged just 34.8 attempts per game this year while the Browns face 41.5 attempts per game, so something has to give here. The volume has been vital to success against the Browns, as they’ve allowed just a 3.86 percent touchdown rate, the second-lowest mark in the league. Dalton should be considered a high-end QB2 if Green plays but should be considered a middling to low-end QB2 if he sits.
RBs
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: Since trading away Carlos Hyde, the Browns have given Chubb at least 18 carries per game and he’s delivered time-and-time again. Since he took the starting job in Week 7, he’s the No. 13 running back in PPR formats and the No. 10 running back in standard formats. Now going against the Bengals run-defense that’s allowed 1,095 yards on 200 carries (5.48 yards per carry) with nine touchdowns over their last eight games to running backs alone, he’s set to take the leap into the elite conversation. Keep in mind that those numbers aren’t even including the 117 rushing yards that Lamar Jackson posted on them last week. The Bengals opponents average 71.9 plays per game and 23.5 rushing attempts per game, so feel free to play Chubb as an elite RB1 in this game. The only concern you have is that he’s not heavily utilized in the passing-game, though the Browns have shown a willingness to run even when losing, as evidenced by his 22 carries against the Chiefs in Week 9. As for Johnson, he appears to be in a similar role to the one he was under Hue Jackson, as he’s played just 52-of-128 snaps over the two games under Freddie Kitchens, totaling four carries and 13 targets in the two games combined. His production has been good in those games, but it’s clear he’s in a Chris Thompson-type role where he’s almost strictly passing-down role with 1-3 carries per game. The matchup is a great one and the Bengals have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs (2nd in NFL), so he should be considered a low-end RB3 this week who’s a bit more appealing in PPR formats.
Joe Mixon: Some will say that Mixon’s knee injury was the reason for his lackluster performance against the Ravens, but that’s not it. The matchup was brutal and when you don’t have A.J. Green on the field, everyone will suffer as a result. Fortunately, Mixon has a much better matchup this weekend against the Browns, who have allowed a robust 4.62 yards per carry and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs, which ranks second-most in the NFL. Volume has been an issue for Mixon, as he’s totaled 13 or less carries in four of his last five games, though the Browns should be able to help with that, too. Through 10 games, opposing backs average 23.9 carries per game against them, as well as 5.2 receptions. That amounts to 29.1 touches per game to running backs, so considering Mixon typically receives 75-plus percent of the touches, this should be a great week to play him. He should be locked into 18-plus touches this week and produce low-end RB1 numbers because of it. The Browns have allowed a top-three RB performance in three of their last five games.
WRs
Jarvis Landry: Let’s hope the bye week did wonders for Landry, who’s been among the most inefficient wide receivers in all of football this year. His 5.7 yards per target is worse than any season he had in Miami, and now, the new offensive coordinator has put a dent in his targets. After seeing at least 10 targets in six straight games, he’s seen just 12 targets total in the new offense, so it’s possible he’s no longer going to be the focal point. While I don’t necessarily believe that (because there’s no one else), we have to lower our target expectations moving forward. That’s not very wise going into this matchup, though, as the Bengals one below-average cornerback covers the slot. Fifth-year cornerback Darqueze Dennard returned in Week 11 against the Ravens after being out of the lineup since Week 6 with a collarbone injury. Over the course of his career, he’s allowed a 71 percent completion rate in his coverage, including a 78.4 percent rate this year. There’s been just one season in which he held quarterbacks to less than a 108.1 QB Rating when targeting him, and that was in 2017 when the Bengals had a lot of playmakers around him. They don’t have much to overcome his lackluster play anymore, so Landry should be trusted as a high-end WR3, even with the decreased volume.
Antonio Callaway: Remember when the Browns were going to play Callaway less? Yeah, that never happened, as he’s still the No. 2 receiver behind Landry. After dropping six of his last 43 targets, Callaway had a drop-less game against the Falcons in Week 10, though he only saw two targets. He’s got a much tougher matchup against William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick than Landry does, though those two haven’t even played up to their talent-level this season. They’re allowing just a 49.5 percent catch-rate, but when they do allow a catch, it goes for an average of 14.8 yards. Callaway can get loose down the field and add up to WR4 numbers on one catch but given his lack of production with Mayfield under center, he’s not someone you really need to trust in season-long leagues. Knowing that teams average over 70 plays against the Bengals and that the cornerback duo allows nearly 15 yards per catch, he may be worth a flier in tournaments if you’re putting together a lot of lineups.
Rashard Higgins: During Mayfield’s time starting, Higgins has caught 11-of-14 targets for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Why don’t they get him more involved? Well, he was coming off a multi-week injury the last two weeks, so maybe the bye week allows them to do just that. He’s the type of player who needs to be monitored, as he could post numbers if given the opportunity. You don’t need to play him just yet, but I wanted to put him here to remind you about his potential.
A.J. Green: Knowing that the Bengals are still somehow in the playoff race, Green is trying to come back this week, though nothing is guaranteed at this point. He’d return to play against Denzel Ward, who’s been among the better cornerbacks in football during his rookie season. He’s been asked to shadow No. 1 receivers and has allowed just a 55 percent catch-rate while holding them to just 10.6 yards per reception in his coverage. Ward doesn’t go into the slot, which is where a lot of damage is done, and the Bengals do use Green there about 25-30 percent of the time. The biggest concern for Green, who is typically matchup-proof, is his foot, as these types of injuries to pass-catchers typically don’t end well. Even if he were to make it through the game, what would his efficiency look like in a tough matchup. Even if Green plays, he’s a risky WR2 against Ward, though you’re likely stuck playing him in season-long leagues. I’d definitely fade him in DFS this week. I’ll update this as the week goes on and we learn more about Green’s status. Update: Green refused to comment on when he’ll play next, and though he’s listed as questionable, he didn’t practice all week. He’s not going to play, so get him out of lineups.
Tyler Boyd: He’s obviously someone who would benefit from Green’s presence on the field, as he’s totaled just 136 scoreless yards on 15 targets over the last two weeks with Green out. His matchup is good in this game regardless, as the Browns secondary is ailing a bit and the slot has been the area to attack. E.J. Gaines had been covering the slot, but he went to injured reserve before their Week 10 game which leaves Briean Boddy-Calhoun covering the slot. He was benched earlier in the year, but they need him on the field after Gaines’ injury. Boddy-Calhoun has allowed 26-of-33 passing for 358 yards this year, which is a massive 10.8 yards per target. The Browns have allowed their opponents 72.3 plays per game, which has led to 24.1 targets per game for wide receivers. Even if Green returns, there’s plenty to go around here. If Green plays, Boyd should be locked in as a high-upside WR2. If Green sits this game out, he moves back into low-end WR2 territory, though he’s still startable.
John Ross: He’s another one who would benefit from Green’s presence because if not, he’ll see the most of Denzel Ward. The Browns have allowed seven pass plays of 40-plus yards, which is obviously right down Ross’ alley, though he’s flashing more versatility than everyone realizes. He’s now scored four touchdowns on 29 targets (one every 7.3 targets) with only one of them coming on a pass longer than 22 yards. He’s seen 13 targets in the two games without Green, so the volume has increased, and the Browns opponents average 24.1 targets per game (to wide receivers only). Green may come back as a decoy, which again, would benefit Ross, who would then line-up across from T.J. Carrie in coverage. There’s a lot of moving parts here, but if Green were to be out, Ross would be just a weak WR4 option, though he’d probably see six-plus targets. If Green plays, Ross should be considered a high-upside WR4 even if it meant less targets.
TEs
David Njoku: The bye came at the perfect time for Njoku, who had been battling knee and rib injuries the last few weeks. He’s now seen just six targets over the last three weeks combined, which comes after him seeing six-plus targets in 6-of-7 games to start the season. When targeted, tight ends have success against the Bengals, as they’ve allowed a 75.3 percent completion rate to the position with 8.43 yards per target in the process. Five different tight ends have totaled at least 51 yards against them, though one interesting thing to note is that of the five touchdowns they’ve allowed to tight ends, four of them were to backups. It’s difficult to say that Njoku is a must-start at this point in time, but it’s hard to find a tight end who presents as much upside as he does, especially when Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns in his last four games. Njoku should be considered a risky low-end TE1, but one who comes oozing with upside.
C.J. Uzomah: After looking like he’d be a solid streaming option when Tyler Eifert went down, Uzomah has kind of blended in with a lot of other mediocre options. He’s totaled just six catches for 64 scoreless yards over the last three games combined, which included a catchless performance against the Bucs, who have been a great matchup all season. The Browns defense has struggled with tight ends as of late and a lot of it likely has to do with them having linebackers and safeties in-and-out of the lineup. Over the last two games, they’ve allowed Travis Kelce 7/99/2 on nine targets, and then Austin Hooper followed that up with 10/56/1 on 11 targets. The Browns have allowed the second-most receptions (64) to tight ends but have allowed them just 9.8 yards per reception on them (4th-lowest mark). In two games against a similar defense last year, Tyler Kroft (Uzomah’s teammate who’s on injured reserve) totaled 6/68/2 in the first meeting and then 3/14/1 in the second one, so the Bengals clearly see something against this Gregg Williams defense. Uzomah should be considered a high-end TE2 despite his struggles lately.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 9.5
QBs
Tom Brady: There’s been two games this year where Brady has finished with less than 13.7 fantasy points and both games were against his former coaches, Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel. You have to approach Brady differently this year anyway, as he’s lacking the upside he’s shown in years past. I’ve mentioned this stat before, but here’s an updated version: There have been 86 different occasions where a quarterback has posted 21.9 or more fantasy points this season (average of 8.6 per week). Brady has just one of those games. Getting Gronkowski back healthy will most definitely help, though it may not help him get into elite territory against the Jets this week. Brady has played in New York five times over the last five years and has posted these lines (most recent first): 257/2/1, 286/2/0, 231/1/1, 182/1/1, and 228/0/1. While teams change, and players change, the Jets defense has taken strides in the right direction while Brady has trended down, naturally. The Jets may have allowed 41 points to the Bills, but their defense has been solid this year, holding quarterbacks to 7.1 yards per attempt (8th-lowest) and a 62.2 percent completion-rate (4th-lowest). Andrew Luck was the only one who threw for more than two touchdowns against them, and even he threw three interceptions. Brady is still in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 conversation, but he should no longer be considered a must-play. Update: Brady is listed as questionable for the game with a knee injury and illness that caused him to miss practice on Friday. They’re expecting him to play, but it’s an added level of risk to the quarterback.
Josh McCown/Sam Darnold: We don’t know who will start for the Jets in Week 12 but knowing that Darnold was still held out of practice on Monday, we’ll assume it’s McCown, though it’s not as if it matters much. McCown was terrible against the Bills completing just 50 percent of his passes while throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. The Patriots have allowed four different quarterbacks throw for 300-plus yards against them and have also allowed 7-of-10 quarterbacks throw for multiple touchdowns. A large part of that is due to the 39.3 pass attempts they see per game, which ranks as the third-most in the league. They’ve allowed just a 60.8 percent completion-rate (third-lowest in the league) to opponents, which doesn’t bode well for McCown/Darnold, who have combined to complete just 54.5 percent of their attempts. The Patriots are likely to win the game (as evidenced by the spread), so we may see plenty of pass attempts out of McCown, but judging by his surrounding cast and Week 10 performance, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a low-end QB2. Update: McCown is starting for the Jets with Darnold out.
RBs
Sony Michel and James White: Even though Michel was back on the field against the Titans, the bye week likely came at the perfect time with his knee injury still healing. The matchup doesn’t get much better, either, as the Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns to running backs in three of their last four games, including the first two of LeSean McCoy‘s season in Week 10. Some may wonder if the Jets spent the bye week working on and game-planning against the run, but that would mean they’re overlooking Brady, so unlikely. Running backs have totaled 286 touches against the Jets, which ranks as the ninth-most in the league and the Patriots are favored by nearly 10 points. Michel should be played as a low-end RB1 who should have a big game. White went back to his pass-catching role with Michel back, though the matchup against the Titans just wasn’t clicking for the Patriots offense. The Jets have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs, but they’ve also faced the ninth-fewest targets. Because of that, no running back has totaled more than five catches, so while White is still a must-play, he’s more in the middling RB2 conversation this week.
Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire: It’s difficult to take too much from the Jets blowout in Week 10, but we’ve now seen McGuire on the field for two weeks and he’s out-snapped Crowell 68-42, though Crowell has still out-touched him 23-19. The gap is certainly small, though, so don’t be surprised if McGuire is the back to own moving forward. Against the Patriots, he should be the preferred option, as they’ve been a bit more susceptible to pass-catching backs than early-down workhorses. Their opponents average a rather-high 66.1 plays per game which has led to 27.4 touches per game to the running back position, including 6.0 receptions per game, which is where McGuire has the clear edge, as he’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, while Crowell saw just four of them. Another reason to dislike Crowell is that a lot of his yardage this year has come on big plays, as 51.3 percent of his yardage has come on just seven carries. The Patriots have allowed just six carries that have gone for 20-plus yards (9th-fewest) and no carries that have gone for 40-plus yards. Crowell does get goal-line opportunities, so he’s still on the low-end RB3 radar, but McGuire is the slightly safer play this week, especially in PPR formats.
WRs
Josh Gordon: Coming off the Titans game where he was limited to just four catches for 81 yards on 12 targets, the Gordon/Brady connection will try to get back on track against the Jets this week. Fortunately, Gordon will match-up against Morris Claiborne most of the game, and that’s not what we’d consider a brutal matchup. Claiborne has allowed just a 48 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, but he’s also allowed 14.2 yards per reception. Over the course of Claiborne’s seven-year career, there’s been plenty of ups and downs, as the QB Rating when targeting him has ranged from 63.0 to 121.5. He’s unpredictable week-over-week, though he’s definitely flashed at times. Teams have had so much success attacking the slot that Claiborne hasn’t been challenged a ton, but knowing Gordon has seen 21 targets over the last two games tells us that he’ll be tested here. You should put Gordon into your lineup as a low-end WR2 who comes with some upside if Claiborne has an off-day and Brady gets over his struggles in New York.
Julian Edelman: After tweaking his ankle in the Week 10 loss to the Titans, it appears that Edelman will be back in the lineup against the Jets. That’s great for his owners, as the Jets have been continually destroyed by slot receivers this year. The combination of Buster Skrine and Perry Nickerson has allowed 56-of-73 passing for 640 yards and five touchdowns in their coverage alone. Here’s a list of slot-heavy receivers by week against the Jets:
| Player | Targets | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR Pts | |
| Week 1 | Golden Tate | 15 | 7 | 79 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Week 2 | Danny Amendola | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Week 3 | Jarvis Landry | 15 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 18.3 |
| Week 4 | Dede Westbrook | 13 | 9 | 130 | 0 | 22.0 |
| Week 5 | Emmanuel Sanders | 14 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Week 6 | Chester Rogers | 10 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 15.5 |
| Week 7 | Adam Thielen | 10 | 9 | 110 | 1 | 26.0 |
| Week 8 | Anthony Miller | 7 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 12.7 |
| Week 9 | Danny Amendola | 7 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Week 10 | Zay Jones | 11 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 23.3 |
It’s been a matchup to exploit, to say the least. I’ll come back and update his notes if he misses practice, but as of now, Edelman needs to be started as a high-end WR2.
Robby Anderson: He should be back this week after missing two of the last three games, though he’ll be returning to a matchup with Stephon Gilmore. That’s been extremely bad for most players, though Corey Davis played well against him in Week 10. Anderson has seen more than six targets just once all year and has topped 44 yards just once all year, so knowing that he’ll match-up with Gilmore is bad news. On the year, he’s allowed just a 46 percent catch-rate in his coverage and just 5.91 yards per target. We do know that Anderson and McCown have a connection, but the matchup just doesn’t add up here. Of the 14 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-40 options against the Patriots, every one of them totaled at least five targets and 12 of them saw at least seven targets. Anderson should be considered a boom-or-bust WR5 who does benefit from McCown under center. Update: Anderson practiced just once this week and may have a limited role in the offense this week even if he does play.
Jermaine Kearse/Quincy Enunwa: Despite his lackluster performances week-over-week, the Jets have continued to put Kearse in the slot, as he ran 78 percent of his routes there in Week 10 while Enunwa was there on just 29.7 percent of his routes. He’s got the best matchup on the field against Jonathan Jones this week, as he’s allowed 396 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets in coverage this year with 226 of the yards coming after the catch, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. The issue? Kearse averages just 2.9 yards after the catch, which is in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Only if the Jets had someone who was good in the slot and a monster after the catch… Oh yeah, Enunwa has averaged 8.7 yards after the catch and has dominated when he’s played in the slot. If the Jets offensive coordinator woke up during the bye week, Enunwa would be in the slot. Kearse is a weak WR5 no matter what, but Enunwa is a dark-horse sleeper this week who you may want to throw in a few tournament lineups.
TEs
Rob Gronkowski: It appears as if Gronkowski will play in Week 12, though the matchup doesn’t get much worse against the Jets. They’ve trusted Jamal Adams in coverage and he’s been every bit worth of the top-10 draft pick the Jets used on him. There’s been just one tight end who’s totaled more than three catches or 36 yards against him this year and it was Eric Ebron who posted four catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. As you can probably imagine, the Jets have allowed the fewest yards (309) to the tight end position this year, though their schedule has been relatively easy, and they’ve faced a league-low 45 targets. While everyone wants to pretend that Gronkowski is useless now, he’s still totaled at least 43 yards in each of his last five games, including 75 or more in two of them. There have been just 40 games this year where a tight end has totaled 75 or more yards and Gronkowski has three of them. If he’s on my team, I’m going to play him as a TE1 and have no regrets, even in a bad matchup on paper.
Chris Herndon: If there’s someone on the Jets who has a very enticing matchup, it’s Herndon. He’s now seen 19 targets over the last five weeks, and though that’s not a crazy amount, his efficiency cannot be denied. He’s turned those targets into 14 receptions for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Now he goes into a matchup with the Patriots, who have faced an average of 8.2 targets per game to tight ends, allowing 62.1 yards per game with seven touchdowns (second-most) in the process. They’ve now allowed 7-of-10 tight ends to finish as top-15 options, including two actual TE1 performances to Eric Ebron (9/105/2) and Trey Burton (9/126/1). The lack of competency out of his quarterbacks is worrisome, but he’s overcome that in worse matchups than this. He’s a high-end TE2 and someone who should be considered a decent streamer this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 45.0
Line: LAC by 12.0
QBs
Josh Rosen: He completed just nine passes against the Raiders, though three of them were for touchdowns. He’s been a mixed-bag as a rookie, flashing at times, while looking lost at others. He’s completed just 54.8 percent of his passes, including less than 58 percent in each of his last four games. He’s also thrown nine interceptions in his last five games, and that’s despite throwing the ball just 33.8 times per game. The Chargers aren’t going to be a cakewalk, either, as they’ve been one of the best defenses against the pass since Week 4, and they welcomed defensive end Joey Bosa back last week. Since allowing three touchdowns to Jared Goff in Week 3, they’ve allowed just seven passing touchdowns in the following seven games. They also haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer in that time, which is why we’ve seen just one quarterback finish as a top-18 option against them in that time. It was Russell Wilson, who rushed for 41 yards, which is essentially an extra passing touchdown. Rosen shouldn’t be considered in any format you can help it, as his team is projected for just 16.5 points in this game.
Philip Rivers: He just continues posting multiple touchdowns, as he just did it for the 10th straight time this season against the Broncos last week. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since way back in Week 4, but something needs to be said for his consistency. The Cardinals are going to put him to the test, though, as they’ve allowed a league-low 12 passing touchdowns this season and an average of just 237.6 passing yards per game. Their opponents have averaged 67.7 plays per game, so it’s not as if they’re lacking opportunity. It helps that they’ve generated a 9.35 sack percentage, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. Heck, they even held Patrick Mahomes to just 249 yards and two touchdowns while at home. No quarterback has finished better than the QB10 against them, eliminating tournament-winning upside for Rivers. He’s just a middling QB2 and not one you must play.
RBs
David Johnson: We’re now three weeks into the Byron Leftwich play-calling regime and it’s been massive for Johnson’s fantasy value. He’s now totaled 74 touches over the last three weeks (24.7 per game) compared to 126 touches over the first seven games (18.0 per game). He only saw three targets in Week 11, but having known Rosen threw the ball just 20 times, it’s actually a good amount. The Chargers are coming off a game in which they allowed the Broncos to rush for 102 yards and three touchdowns, which matched what they’d allowed over the first nine games combined. It doesn’t help that they lost defensive tackle Corey Liuget early in the game, as he’s one of the better interior defenders against the run. After losing linebacker Denzel Perryman the prior week, the Chargers are likely going to be an easier matchup going forward. They’ve already allowed 4.48 yards per carry and 7.86 yards per target to running backs, but the issue is that teams haven’t had much of an opportunity to run against them, as they’ve faced just 19.5 carries per game. There are just two teams who have allowed more fantasy points through the air to running backs, though, and we know Johnson is gamescript-proof, so he should be somewhat immune to the negative gamescript. There have been just four running backs who’ve totaled 18 or more touches against them, and their finishes were RB2, RB8, RB11, and RB22. Johnson should be plugged-in as a middling RB1 this week.
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Whew, Gordon is a man on a mission and is running as well as anyone in the NFL. He’s now totaled at least 15 carries in 8-of-9 games and has seen at least four targets in all nine games. So, that amounts to a 19 carry/target floor, and when you add in a matchup against the Cardinals, he’s obviously a must-play. The Cardinals opponents average a league-high 28.7 carries per game against them, and to explain how insane that volume is, there are just seven teams in the league who allow more touches per game to running backs. It should come as no shock that the Cardinals have also faced the most red zone touches (60) through 10 games. Despite totaling the 21st-most attempts (18) in the red zone, Gordon has totaled the fourth-most points in that area of the field. The odd part is that Gordon has still yet to see 20 carries in a game this year, so we could see more Ekeler than we have in weeks past. Knowing all the volume going around in a matchup against the team who’s allowed the third-most points per game to running backs, and Gordon is an elite RB1. As for Ekeler, he should be playable as a high-end RB4 in this game who could see somewhere in the range of 10-12 touches. Update: This is one we didn’t think we had to worry about, but Gordon is now a legitimate game-time decision after being listed with hamstring/knee injuries. In a game that the Chargers should be able to win rather easily, they could decide to rest him. It’s an afternoon game, which leads to more problems. We’ll hope to get some clarity early on Sunday morning. Should he be ruled out, Ekeler would become a must-play high-end RB2. Even if he’s active, this likely means that Ekeler is in for a bigger role and is in the RB3 conversation.
WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: He scored two touchdowns last week, but all that did was mask what’s a slippery slope while playing in this offense. He’s seen 14 targets the last two weeks, but they’ve netted just eight receptions for 73 yards. Without those touchdowns, we’d be having a different conversation. Still, he’s got four touchdowns in the last four games, so it’s clear that he’s become a favorite of Rosen’s in the red zone. The Chargers have Desmond King covering the slot and he’s been playing a prevent position all season, as he’s allowed a very-high 82.6 percent catch-rate in his coverage but has limited the production to just 8.7 yards per reception and one touchdown on 46 targets. Just last week, we saw veteran slot-man Emmanuel Sanders total just four catches for 56 yards against them. Knowing that this is likely a negative gamescript for the Cardinals, we should see the targets rise for Fitzgerald, so he’s still on the WR3 radar, but the matchup isn’t as good as some think.
Christian Kirk: Here’s my notes on Kirk last week: The Raiders have allowed more big passing plays (40-plus yards) than all but one team (Bucs), so there’s always that possibility that Kirk catches a long touchdown. Still, you really shouldn’t bank on that, making him a middling WR5 this week. Well, everything was right, but apparently I should’ve banked on that long touchdown, as Kirk hauled in a 59-yard touchdown, but had just two catches for 18 yards the rest of the game. His targets have declined due to Fitzgerald, but he’s seen at least six targets in four of his last five games, so he can still be relevant. The issue is that he’ll see a lot of Casey Hayward in this game, who just happens to be a Pro Bowler. He’s allowed just a 56.8 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but has allowed a rather-high 15.0 yards per reception. The matchup is definitely below-average, so Kirk shouldn’t be played as anything more than a WR4/5-type option, though he should present somewhat of a solid floor, as he’s totaled at least three catches and 42 yards in five of the last six games.
Keenan Allen: Go figure, I’ve been the one saying that Allen would have a tremendous second-half of the season, but completely whiffed on his projection last week against the Broncos. He’s now seen 31 targets over the last three weeks and has accumulated 21 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns. It’s happening again. The Cardinals are a team who’ve been demolished by slot wide receivers, as they’ve asked Budda Baker to cover them, though he missed last week with a knee injury. The Cardinals have struggled as a team covering the slot, as they’ve allowed 66-of-79 passing for 668 yards and four touchdowns. This is where I tell you that Allen runs over half his routes from the slot. It’s possible the Chargers run away with this game, but if there’s one receiver you know you can trust, it’s Allen. He should be played as a low-end WR1 this week.
Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams: If you didn’t read the Allen notes, you should, because a lot of the production the Cardinals have allowed to wide receivers has come through the slot. The Williams’ don’t play in the slot very often, which means they’ll each see Patrick Peterson and Bene Benwikere, who have both been phenomenal in coverage this year. When playing either of these receivers, you’re looking for a touchdown, but the Cardinals have allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all year with just eight of them going to wide receivers. They’re one of 13 teams who’s allowed less than 8.0 yards per target to wide receivers, so yardage doesn’t even make sense. There’s a lot of risk in both of them this week, so Tyrell should be considered just a mediocre WR5, while Mike is just an emergency WR6 who can snag a touchdown at any time.
TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: There’s been two times where I’ve relied upon Seals-Jones for a useable fantasy performance. Last year, in Week 16, the fantasy championship of one of my leagues (injury forced it), and last week in most of my DFS lineups. In those games, he totaled just one catch for five yards. Sigh… The matchup was right last week, as was his usage the previous two weeks, but he suddenly went from 68 percent of the snaps the previous two weeks under Leftwich, to just 38.9 percent of the snaps in Week 11. Maybe he was punished for a holding penalty that reversed a long David Johnson touchdown run. He’s now going into a matchup with the Chargers, who have allowed a league-low 5.69 yards per target to the tight end position. Knowing that Jermaine Gresham totaled more snaps than him last week, it’s clear you should stay away until we know if his reduced snap-count is a trend.
Antonio Gates: After playing just 11, 16, and 13 snaps in the previous three games with just three catches for 29 yards in all three games combined, Gates played 25 snaps and racked up five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. As if the tight end position wasn’t hard enough to predict as is, now we have 38-year-old Antonio Gates delivering a top-five performance. It’s hard to say that he’s an option going forward, as 25 snaps aren’t even that many, but getting targeted every 3.6 snaps is ridiculous. The Broncos have been a good matchup for tight ends and it made sense that someone would produce, but Virgil Green would’ve made more sense since he has played many more snaps. The Cardinals have allowed just 10.6 yards per reception to tight ends and have allowed just three touchdowns to the position all year, so it’s not a good time to expect a repeat performance from Gates. He’s someone I’d feel comfortable leaving on waiver wires.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Total: 46.5
Line: PIT by 3.0
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: After looking like complete trash through the first three quarters, Roethlisberger brought the Steelers back in the fourth quarter and managed to deliver a top-eight performance. He’s now scored at least 14.9 fantasy points in each of his last nine games, including six with 20 or more points. The Broncos just played against another aging veteran in Philip Rivers and allowed him to throw for 401 yards and two touchdowns. Their secondary just isn’t playing very well right now while they’ve tried to get their run-defense back intact. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes finish as the QB5, Deshaun Watson as the QB10, and Rivers as the QB8. Each of them was able to throw for at least 8.9 yards per attempt and throw two touchdowns, which bodes well for Roethlisberger who has thrown the ball at least 36 times in 8-of-10 games this year. For whatever reason, the Broncos released starting cornerback Adam Jones this week. It’s also very questionable if starting cornerback Bradley Roby plays, as he suffered a concussion in Week 11. There’s always the risk of ‘Road Roethlisberger’ but he’s been much better this year, so he’s got to be in the low-end QB1 conversation this week with the way the Broncos are struggling and the injuries they’re currently dealing with.
Case Keenum: Remember when the Steelers were considered a matchup to target? Yeah, not anymore. Did you know that no quarterback has finished better than the QB18 against them since Week 4? Over the first four weeks, they allowed 324.3 yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game, but have since allowed just 204.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. That’s more along the lines of Keenum’s typical game, as he’s thrown just 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through 10 games. Losing Demaryius Thomas surely didn’t help, as he’s completed just 60.8 percent of his passes over the last two weeks for just 6.7 yards per attempt and one touchdown. If you’ve debated starting Keenum this week, it’s best to just walk away from the computer for a bit.
RBs
James Conner: So, Conner waited until there was no chance for Le’Veon Bell to return to have his worst game of the season? He totaled just 49 total yards against the Jaguars, but should’ve had much more, as he dropped two passes, one of which would’ve been the game-winning touchdown. Everyone is entitled to a bad game here and there, so we’ll chalk this one up to that, though it’s worrisome that he didn’t have a great game against Panthers the prior week, either. Ever since the Broncos allowed back-to-back 200-yard games in Weeks 5-6, they’ve gotten things together against the run. Over the last four weeks, they’ve held every team of running backs to less than 100 rushing yards and haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown in that time. Keep in mind they played against David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon in that time. They have allowed some production through the air, as the 7.52 yards per target ranks as the fifth-most in the league. Will Conner work his way back into the circle of trust with Roethlisberger? He’ll have to in this matchup in order to live up to his RB1 status most weeks. He’s more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this game until we see him bounce back from his recent struggles.
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: There was a big development last week with the Broncos, as Lindsay and Freeman combined for 23 of the 24 running back touches, as Devontae Booker was the odd man out with one touch. That would seem to indicate they’re moving forward with a two-man rotation, though it could’ve just been a one-off situation. The Steelers have looked like a different team against the run the last two weeks, as they’d allowed just 702 total yards (87.8/game) and six total touchdowns to running backs over the first eight games, but have allowed a massive 357 total yards (178.5/game) and four touchdowns the last two weeks to the Panthers and Jaguars offenses. They didn’t have a major injury in that time, so what gives? Meanwhile, Lindsay and Freeman are running behind an offensive line that’s missing three starters on the offensive line, both guards and the center. The Steelers have still allowed just 3.75 yards per carry on the year, so we shouldn’t overreact to a few bad games, but Lindsay has now scored four touchdowns in the last four games. He should be considered a locked-in RB2 until proven otherwise, though his upside is capped by Freeman who has been money on the goal-line. The Steelers have yet to allow multiple rushing touchdowns in a game, so you’re likely only going to get one usable performance from these two, making Freeman a risky high-end RB4.
WRs
Antonio Brown: Matchup. Proof. He’s now scored a touchdown in eight straight games and is about to go up against a defense that is likely starting Tramaine Brock and Isaac Yiadom on the perimeter in three-wide sets. The Broncos cut Adam Jones for some reason, while Bradley Roby is in the concussion protocol. Even if Roby plays, he’s been one to target in matchups this year as he’s allowed 14.4 yards per reception and a touchdown every 14.0 targets in his coverage. Brock is a nine-year veteran who’s been mediocre his entire career. We’ve seen Sammy Watkins, Robby Anderson, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods go for 100-plus yards against the Broncos, and then there was Keenan Allen‘s nine-catch, 89-yard, one-touchdown performance last week. With the Broncos stopping the run so well as of late, Brown should see eight-plus targets in a plus-matchup. As usual, he’s an elite WR1 who’s in play for cash lineups as well.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Unfortunately, Smith-Schuster is going to see the most of Chris Harris Jr. this week. We saw Keenan Allen win his matchup against him last week, so he’s not untouchable, but prior to that game, he’d yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. In fact, he hadn’t allowed more than 47 yards in a game until then, and that’s despite being targeted 53 times this year. We’ve even seen Harris start moving to the perimeter, which means Smith-Schuster may not get much of a break when they move him around. The Broncos haven’t allowed multiple top-30 receivers in any game this year, and it’s important to note that they’ve played the Chiefs twice and Rams once. Smith-Schuster is just a middling WR2 this week who may let you down.
Emmanuel Sanders: Similar to Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, it’s likely that Sanders benefited from another top receiver on his team. With Demaryius Thomas out of town, Sanders has totaled just 6/47/0 and 4/56/0 in the two games, though they were two semi-tough matchups. He’s still running 58 percent of his snaps from in the slot, which is a good thing against the Steelers, because it means he’ll miss out on Joe Haden‘s shadow coverage. He’ll still have a tough matchup with Mike Hilton in the slot, but it’s not as bad as Sutton’s matchup. Of the slot receivers who’ve played against the Steelers, we haven’t seen any top 74 yards, but we have seen four of them score touchdowns, including two to Boyd back in Week 6. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time a team totaled more than 229 passing yards against the Steelers, so it’s tough to see Sanders as anything more than a high-end WR3.
Courtland Sutton: Through two weeks into the No. 1 role on the team, we’ve seen Sutton catch three passes in each game while totaling 57 and 78 yards. For someone who is recommended as a top-30 receiver by many analysts, it’s odd that he’s yet to haul in more than three receptions or six targets in any one game. He’s caught at least one 20-plus yard pass in 8-of-10 games helping his fantasy floor, but against Joe Haden, it’ll be tough. He’s allowed just a 55 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year for just 10.5 yards per reception, which amounts to just 5.81 yards per target. He’s also allowed just one touchdown on 58 targets, so it’s tough to even rely on Sutton hauling in his third touchdown of the season. Until we see him utilized a bit more in the offense, Sutton should be considered a mediocre WR4.
TEs
Vance McDonald: It’s a really odd season for tight ends, because even though he’s missed a game and topped 68 yards just once this season, he currently sits as the No. 11 tight end in PPR formats. He’s seen less than four targets just twice but has seen more than six targets just once. He’s scored in each of the last two games and now has a matchup with the Broncos, who just got done allowing 38-year-old Antonio Gates five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Outside of Travis Kelce twice, their competition has been really weak, but it hasn’t stopped them from allowing seven tight ends to rack up at least 49 yards against them. The 14.5 yards per reception they allow ranks as the most in the NFL, which bodes well for McDonald, who has averaged at least 12.6 yards per reception in five of his six seasons in the league. With James Conner struggling to do much on the ground the last two weeks and the Broncos recent surge against the run, we could see McDonald finish as a top-10 option this week. Start him as a middling to low-end TE1.
Jeff Heuerman: After many wanted to fully trust Heuerman after his 11-target game against the Texans in Week 9, they came back down to earth in Week 11 after he totaled five targets against the Chargers, which netted four catches for 20 yards. Despite having his bye in Week 10, he’s still seen the seventh-most targets among tight ends over the last four weeks. Knowing he’s seen at least five targets in each of his last three games does make him attractive and though the Steelers overall numbers against tight ends look bad, they’ve really improved throughout the year. After allowing four top-10 tight ends in the first five weeks, they haven’t allowed any since that time. The competition has been relatively weak in that time, but are we at the point where we don’t include Heuerman in that conversation? The 58 receptions they’ve allowed to tight ends ranks seventh in the league, so Heuerman should deliver a decent floor in PPR formats, but it’s tough to say he’s a top-12 option with the way the Steelers have played lately. He’s in the high-end TE2 conversation this week, though his upside is a bit capped.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 51.0
Line: IND by 9.0
QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It’s official, Tannehill is back under center against the Colts this week. After watching Brock Osweiler fail to throw a touchdown for three straight weeks, this was always going to happen provided Tannehill was healthy. The Colts aren’t as good of a matchup that we thought they’d be this year, as they’ve played well as a unit. They’d been struggling to get much of a pass-rush the last few weeks, but they even got that right in Week 11, racking up five sacks against the Titans. They have allowed a 72 percent completion rate to quarterbacks, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league, which should provide Tannehill with some safer short throws to build some confidence. Most forget that he started the season very well, completing 73 percent of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns on just 74 attempts in the first three games. The issue is his lack of pass-catchers, as the receiving corps doesn’t quite look the same. The Colts have had a very light schedule over the last two months, playing Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold, so maybe they’re not as good as we think, but it’s best to give Tannehill a week back before trusting him as a streamer. In 2QB leagues, he’s not the worst low-end QB2.
Andrew Luck: It’s now seven weeks straight where Luck has thrown for three-plus touchdowns, which ranks third all-time behind Peyton Manning (eight games) and Tom Brady (10 games). The crazy part is that he’s done it in each of the last four games despite not throwing the ball more than 31 times. Remember, this is the Dolphins defense that allowed Deshaun Watson five touchdowns on Thursday night football a few weeks back. Since the start of Week 4, they’ve allowed Tom Brady 274/3, Andy Dalton 248/1, Mitch Trubisky 316/3, Matthew Stafford 217/2, Deshaun Watson 239/5, Sam Darnold 229/0, and Aaron Rodgers 199/2. Five of those seven quarterbacks threw the ball 31 times or less (only Brady and Darnold didn’t), so it’s fair to say they’ve been struggling. They’ve only generated a sack on 5.0 percent of dropbacks (5th-lowest), which isn’t good when you realize that Luck has been not been sacked since Week 5. Crazy, right? The Dolphins have 15 interceptions on the year, which ranks as the second-most in the league, but that’s the only real warning sign about this matchup but knowing how well Luck is playing even in tough matchups, you’re definitely not worried about him against the Dolphins at home. He’s a high-end QB1 until he gives up the crown.
RBs
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: Did the bye week change anything with the timeshare between these two? We can only hope so, as Gore totaled 36 touches in the two weeks before the bye, while Drake totaled just 17 touches. The move to Tannehill isn’t a great one for Drake, as he hadn’t seen more than four targets in 4-of-5 games, while he saw six or more targets in 3-of-5 games with Osweiler. It’s impossible to predict this backfield with the way they’ve been used to this point. The Colts have allowed just 3.93 yards per carry on the season and have allowed just six total touchdowns to running backs through 10 games. They’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher against them and that’s despite opponents averaging 22.9 carries per game against them, which shows consistency. They have allowed five RB1 performances this year, but four of those running backs racked up at least five catches and 54 yards through the air. Gore hasn’t totaled more than 19 yards through the air all season, so you’re not likely to see a surprise performance against his old team. If there’s one capable of that, it’s Drake, but he can’t do it with a measly 9.5 touches per game like he saw the last two weeks. Colts opponents do average 65.1 plays per game, so there’s plays to go around, but Drake cannot be considered anything more than a middling RB3. As for Gore, he’s a low-end RB3 who comes with a semi-high floor, but not much upside. Did you know that he still hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this year?
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: We’ve seen Mack settle in right around the 60-62 percent of snaps mark, which is much better than the 35-56 percent one he had in Weeks 6 and 7. He’s had a few brutal matchups the last two weeks, and everyone is jumping ship, but you shouldn’t be one of them. The Jaguars and Titans are both top-five defenses against the run. The Dolphins… well, they’re not. They’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and it’s for a lot of different reasons. They’ve faced the third-most attempts (25.3/game), allowed the seventh-most yards per carry (4.85), and the ninth-most touchdowns (12) to the running back position. But it’s even worse than that, because they allowed just 249 rushing yards on 71 carries (3.51 yards per carry) to start the season, but have allowed 979 yards on 182 carries (5.38 yards per carry) since then, showing they’ve been trending in the wrong direction. They have now allowed a top-15 running back in 9-of-10 games with the only exception being the Jets. In fact, 8-of-10 teams have produced at least one RB1 performance against them. Mack should be played as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this game. Hines has now played 20 or less snaps in 3-of-4 games the last month, so he shouldn’t be played as anything more than a low-end RB4. Jordan Wilkins has been starting to eat into his snaps and has looked good in the process.
WRs
DeVante Parker: We don’t know if Parker will play this week, as he’s been listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury, so stay tuned for updates to these notes on Sunday morning. An interesting fact I came across with the Colts is that they’ve allowed at least one top-36 receiver in each of their last seven games, and that’s with a weak schedule. It’s also a good thing that Tannehill is returning, as there’ve been 16 games in Parker’s career where he’s played with Tannehill and has totaled at least four targets (if Parker plays, that’s minimal). In those games, he’s averaged 4.1 receptions for 61.5 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. While I’ve moved on from touting Parker as a must-play when on the field, some things do add up to production in this game. The Colts have scored at least 29 points in each of their last five games which should lead to negative gamescript, their opponents average 65.1 plays per game, and they’ve allowed a touchdown every 15.5 targets to wide receivers. Even if Parker plays, he’s a very high risk WR4, though it would help if we see him get in a full practice before the end of the week. Update: Parker practiced this week, though he was in a non-contact jersey. This could be due to the lack of depth on the roster, though. Adam Gase has said he believes Parker will play, so it’s now up to you on whether or not you think he should be in your lineup.
Kenny Stills: The return of Tannehill doesn’t only help Parker, but it helps Stills as well. Over the first five weeks, Stills totaled 24 targets, 14 receptions, 241 yards, and three touchdowns. In the four games with Osweiler, he totaled just 9 targets, 5 receptions, 85 yards, and one touchdown. Tannehill throws into tight windows 14 percent of the time, while Osweiler would do that just eight percent of the time, which explains why Amendola was a favorite of his. The issue is that the Colts have allowed just 28 plays of 20-plus yards through the air (6th-fewest) and one play of 40-plus yards (fewest in NFL). We know Stills relies on the big-play more than anyone else in this offense, though it’s important to know that there’s likely one Dolphins receiver to finish as a top-36 option this week, as the Colts have allowed at least one in each of their last seven games. Stills is just a WR5 this week, but his arrow is pointing in the right direction with Tannehill back.
Danny Amendola: If there’s someone whose projection gets knocked with Tannehill under center, it’s Amendola. Tannehill’s average depth of target isn’t much deeper than that of Osweiler, but Tannehill has shown the willingness to throw into tighter windows. He averaged just 4.0 targets per game with Tannehill and 8.2 targets per game with Osweiler, though it does help that Albert Wilson went to injured reserve. Kenny Moore mans the slot for the Colts and has allowed a 73 percent catch-rate in his coverage but has also held receivers to just 8.8 yards per reception and two touchdowns on 56 targets. Amendola is no longer an ultra-safe streaming option and falls into the WR5 conversation.
T.Y. Hilton: After Adoree Jackson held Josh Gordon in check the week before, they trusted him in coverage with Hilton last week. Let’s just say that didn’t work, as Hilton caught all nine of his targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns. It was good to see, as Hilton hadn’t totaled more than four catches for 77 yards since Week 4. The Dolphins are likely to have Xavien Howard cover him this week, and that’s a good thing for Hilton owners. Howard is a bigger cornerback (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) who ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the Combine a few years ago (you don’t get faster as you age). Howard has been a solid cornerback in coverage, but he’s also allowed at least one 20-yard play in 7-of-10 games this season. The 16.6 yards per reception he’s allowed ranks as the fourth-most among cornerbacks who’ve seen 30-plus targets. The Dolphins may choose not to shadow Hilton, which wouldn’t be bad, either. Consider him a rock-solid WR2 this week.
Ryan Grant/Dontrelle Inman: It’s tough to say what’s happening here, as the Colts paid Grant to come in and be the No. 2 receiver, but Inman has severely outplayed him this year. Over the last three weeks, Inman has seen 17 targets, turning them into 14 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. Inman has taken a lot of Chester Rogers‘ snaps in the slot the last two weeks but has also ran two more routes than Grant as well. It’s likely that these two will alternate, but when they’re three-wide, both are on the field. The issue is that there’s likely limited volume this week, as opposing wide receivers average just 17.7 targets per game against the Dolphins. They’ve allowed 9.0 yards per target on those targets, which is why they’ve allowed 11 top-36 performances against them. This is a battle to watch because if Inman continues to average over five targets per game, he’s going to become a thing in fantasy with the way Luck is playing. As of now, Inman should be considered a WR5 while Grant is down in the WR6 range.
TEs
A.J. Derby: It seems the Dolphins have no clue what to do/how to use Mike Gesicki, so naturally, they’d have Derby run more routes when he returned to the lineup. It’s comical, really. Not that it matters all that much, as Derby saw two targets while Gesicki saw just one against the Packers. As a whole, tight ends for the Dolphins have averaged just 4.0 targets, 2.7 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. The Colts have struggled against tight ends this year, but you cannot play either Derby or Gesicki and feel comfortable with it until we see a steady flow of targets.
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: So, wait, Ebron isn’t guaranteed touchdowns every week? Must’ve been a bad dream I had. He saw zero targets in Week 11, though he did throw a pass on the five-yard-line which would’ve straight-up ended me if he’d thrown a touchdown. The good news? He ran 11 routes compared to 17 for Doyle last week, so the gap shrunk. After playing just 22 and 38 percent of snaps in Week 8 and 10, Ebron was upped to 40 percent of the snaps against the Titans, so they are trying to slowly increase his role, but Doyle’s locked into the lineup full-time, as he’s played at least 82 percent of the snaps in all his games. The Dolphins do allow somewhat high efficiency to tight ends this year, as they’ve totaled a 72.6 percent catch-rate (10th), a touchdown every 12.4 targets (7th), and 2.05 PPR points per target (6th). The fact that they haven’t allowed a tight end more than 62 yards might be worrisome to some, but that’s because tight ends have averaged just 6.2 targets per game against them. Doyle should be played as a middling TE1 who is going to start catching some of these touchdowns before long. Ebron remains one of the most efficient tight ends in fantasy on limited volume, and it’s unlikely you have a sure-thing you can play over him, so he remains on the low-end TE1 radar.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 47.5
Line: MIN by 3.5
QBs
Aaron Rodgers: The season is nearing its end for the Packers if they can’t pull of a win against the Vikings in Minnesota, which has been difficult on many teams. Rodgers has played against the Mike Zimmer defense in Minnesota four times and here’s what the track record shows (most recent first): 18/0/0 (hurt), 213/1/1, 212/2/0, 209/2/0. That’s consistency if we’ve ever seen it, though it’s far from elite QB1 numbers. Outside of the one Thursday night game against the Rams, the Vikings have allowed just one quarterback to post more than one passing touchdown against them. Rodgers actually played them in Green Bay earlier this year and finished that game with 281 yards and one touchdown, though that was while playing on his bad knee that he’d injured the prior week. Still, you’d have to go back to Week 5 to find the last time the Vikings allowed more than 14.0 fantasy points to a quarterback, and keep in mind they’ve played Mitch Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees the last three weeks. Rodgers has still yet to score fewer than 15 fantasy points this year, so he offers a floor higher than most, but he’s just a low-end QB1 this week.
Kirk Cousins: He’s now thrown for less than 265 yards in four of his last five games and hasn’t thrown three touchdowns since back in Week 4. Cousins has been a bit maddening in fantasy this year, as he’s had three games that’ve netted 14 or less points but has also posted 20-plus points in four games, though three of them came in the first four weeks. Fortunately, his biggest game of the year came against the Packers in Week 2 when he threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns on 48 pass attempts. The high attempts would be important to him this week because the Packers have not allowed quarterbacks to be very efficient against them. In fact, Cousins was the only one who’s thrown for more than 295 yards against them. They’ve allowed just a 62.2 percent completion-rate (5th-lowest) and 7.5 yards per attempt (15th-lowest) but have also boasted the highest sack percentage (9.47) in the league. Cousins’ offensive line isn’t playing great, but he’s only been sacked 5.98 percent of the time, which ranks as the 12th-lowest mark in the league. It should be interesting to see how the Packers adapt to what the Vikings showed them in the first meeting, though it appears the rest of the league has adapted rather well. This game is not likely going to turn into a shootout like their Week 2 meeting, so don’t expect another top-tier performance. He should still be able to post top-15 numbers, so consider him a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week. It is an upgrade knowing the Packers are going to be without defensive tackle Mike Daniels.
RBs
Aaron Jones: We have another RB1 on our hands, fantasy community. He plays in a top-10 offense with a solid offensive line and has now totaled 34 touches over the last two weeks compared to just nine touches for Jamaal Williams. He’s the workhorse of this team. The issue is that he’s about to match-up with the Vikings defense who’s allowed just 3.63 yards per carry on the season and a league-low five total touchdowns to running backs. It’s good to see Jones’ usage in the passing-game go up (saw a season-high six targets last week), as the Vikings have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year but have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs. They’ve allowed a rather-high 7.36 yards per target through the air, which is somewhere the Packers should be exploiting. When you have a guy who’s getting 70-plus percent of the work in the Packers offense, including goal-line work, you plug him in your lineup no matter what, but this matchup likely won’t net top-10 numbers for Jones, as the only ones to do that against the Vikings were Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley. He should still be played as an RB2, at worst.
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: There’s now been five games where Cook has played, and in them, he’s totaled more than 40 rushing yards just once. Fortunately, the Packers haven’t been very tough against the run, allowing 4.74 yards per carry, which is much different than the 3.26 yards per carry the Bears have allowed. The downside is that they’ve allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs, which is where 64.2 percent of his PPR production has come from this year. We still don’t really know if Murray is going to get goal-line touches, though my guess would be that it’s mixed between the two. It’s important because there’s been three times this year where the Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns to a running back. Cook played against them back in Week 2 when he was healthy and totaled just 38 yards on 10 carries, while catching three passes for 52 yards. That game went into overtime, too, so there was plenty of time for production. Cook is the one you’d rather play, but nothing about his 2018 performance says that he should be leaned on as any more than a middling RB2 in this game. Murray is more than a handcuff but considering we don’t know if he’ll get goal-line work, he should be considered a risky RB4 for this game.
WRs
Davante Adams: After their Week 9 game, Rodgers said that Adams needed to get the ball more. Well, over the last two weeks, he’s totaled 19 targets, 14 receptions, 223 yards, and two touchdowns. He’ll now go into a matchup with Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings secondary, though it’s worth noting that Rhodes wasn’t shadowing Allen Robinson in Week 11. It’s possible that his foot injury is affecting him, and the Vikings would rather him play sides. It hasn’t mattered much against Adams the last two times they’ve played anyway, as Adams posted 8/64/1 against them earlier this year, and posted 5/54/1 against them last year, which was without Rodgers who was hurt at the start of the game. With that, the Vikings defense has been white-hot as of late, as they haven’t allowed 14 PPR points to a single wide receiver over their last six games, which has included Alshon Jeffery, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, and Allen Robinson. While you wouldn’t ever consider benching Adams, you should lower expectations to the low-end WR1/high-end WR2 range this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: To all those people who dropped Valdes-Scantling after last week’s one-catch, eight-yard performance, you’ll probably regret that soon, though it may not be this week. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time a wide receiver cracked 81 yards or 14 PPR points against the Vikings, and knowing Valdes-Scantling is clearly second in line behind Adams, the odds are stacked against him. His place on the field depends on the availability of Randall Cobb, because that would push him to the perimeter with Cobb being somewhat of a slot-only receiver. Mackensie Alexander has manned the slot for them this year and he’s done a great job for the most part, as he’s allowed just 10.8 yards per reception and no touchdowns on 37 targets in coverage. If he plays on the perimeter, he’d likely see Trae Waynes most of the game, who hasn’t been someone to run away from in matchups. He’s allowed a 70.3 percent catch-rate in coverage with 8.3 yards per target and two touchdowns on 37 targets (both touchdowns came against the Rams). It’s unlikely the Packers put up more than 20-24 points in this game, so the scoring opportunities will be limited. Consider Valdes-Scantling a high-end WR4 this week because of who his quarterback is, though the matchup isn’t great.
Adam Thielen: After posting 100-plus yards in each of the first eight games, Thielen has totaled just 88 yards over the last two weeks combined, which included a great matchup against the Lions. We always knew regression was going to come, but it didn’t seem likely it would come that hard. He’s still seen 19 targets in those two games, so you shouldn’t be too concerned. The Packers have moved their cornerbacks all over the place with the injuries they’ve dealt with, and it was Josh Jackson in the slot last week against Doug Baldwin, which didn’t go too well. If they get safety Kentrell Brice back from his ankle injury, they could move Tramon Williams back to the slot, which wouldn’t be as ideal for Thielen, though Williams is beatable. Thielen already beat this defense for 12 catches, 131 yards, and a touchdown even when they were healthy and with Haha Clinton-Dix on the roster. Since their bye in Week 7, the Packers have allowed multiple top-36 wide receivers in every game. Thielen needs to be in lineups as a solid WR1 this week.
Stefon Diggs: If there’s one player’s matchup who’s been downgraded since the last time these two teams played, it’s Diggs. He crushed the Packers for 9/128/2 back in Week 2, but that was before they shuffled their cornerbacks around and decided to let Jaire Alexander shadow opposing No. 1 receivers. He’s allowed just a 58.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage for just 11.6 yards per catch and one touchdown on 48 targets. But here’s the thing. Diggs is a monster himself and has dominated man-coverage all year. Alexander has been better in man-coverage than he has in zone, too. It’s unlikely this game has shootout potential like their last one, which makes me a bit hesitant on Diggs. Consider him a middling WR2 who has a much worse matchup than Thielen.
TEs
Jimmy Graham: It seems the Packers are going to allow Graham to play his broken thumb injury. Why? We don’t have the answer to that, but we do know that Graham wasn’t producing with two good thumbs, so why would he start producing now? He’s totaled 21 yards or less in three of his last four games and has seen his role diminish in the offense as the season’s gone on. The Vikings haven’t been a matchup you need to attack with tight ends, though it hasn’t been one to run from, either. Graham actually posted 6/95/0 against them back in Week 2, but the Vikings defense has changed over the year. After allowing three of the first five tight ends to total at least 90 yards against them, they haven’t allowed more than 69 yards to any tight end since. Every tight end who finished top-15 against them netted at least six targets, which is something that’ll be hard to rely on from Graham given his broken thumb. He’s just a risky TE2 this week and not one who’s even guaranteed to play. Update: Graham got in practice this week and Mike McCarthy said he didn’t have any issues catching the ball. He’s going to play in this game, but understand that he comes with tons of risk.
Kyle Rudolph: If you’ve been here every week this year, you would’ve known to sell Rudolph way back in the first few weeks, as he’s just not being utilized correctly in this offense. His biggest game of the year did come against the Packers when he totaled 7/72/0 on eight targets, though Cousins threw the ball 48 times that game. Rudolph has always been a big red zone target and even though he ranks eighth among tight ends with 10 red zone targets, he’s not delivering results. The Packers aren’t a team who’s likely to start allowing them either, as they’ve allowed just 44.2 yards per game to tight ends and one touchdown on 54 targets. Tight ends have also seen a league-low four red zone targets against them (no other team less than six targets), so they clearly hone in on the tight end in those situations. One of these weeks we’re going to see Rudolph pop back up on the fantasy radar, but this matchup shouldn’t be it. He’s just a high-end TE2 who doesn’t have to be played if you have a good alternative option.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Total: 41.5
Line: HOU by 6.0
QBs
Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert: Does it even matter which quarterback starts for the Titans this week? Well, it does, but I’m referring to it for fantasy purposes. Yes, Mariota had been playing better the previous two weeks, but was bad against the Colts before he suffered his injury. They’re calling Mariota’s injury last week a ‘stinger’ and that he’s highly questionable for this Monday’s game. The Texans have not allowed a top-15 quarterback performance since way back in Week 4 to Andrew Luck, who has kind of dominated everyone. Since that game, there’s been no quarterback who’s thrown for more than one touchdown against them and knowing Mariota’s lack of pocket awareness will hurt him against the Texans pass-rush. The Titans offensive line has allowed 24 sacks over the last five games, which is more than 12 teams have on the season. Meanwhile, the Texans have at least two sacks in each of their last eight games, including five last week against the Redskins. Even if Mariota or Gabbert is able to get the ball out, the Texans have allowed just 6.64 yards per attempt, third-lowest in the NFL. Don’t start either of these quarterbacks. Update: It appears as if Mariota will start for the Titans, barring a setback.
Deshaun Watson: Did you know that you’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time Watson threw more than 25 pass attempts? That’s why you’ve seen him total less than 240 yards passing in each of his last four games, limiting his upside. The Titans aren’t a team who’s allowed many pass attempts, either, as the 33.0 per game average ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the NFL. They finally allowed a quarterback to throw three touchdown passes against them last week, as Andrew Luck ended a nine-game streak of two or less touchdown passes. This is the second meeting between these two teams this year, and in the first meeting we saw Watson complete 22-of-32 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for another 44 yards. Oddly enough, that was Watson’s highest total of the year on the ground, and he’s totaled just 74 yards over the last five games combined. The Titans have been able to hold their opponents to 21 or less points in 7-of-10 games this year, so it’s not a week to expect a massive performance from Watson, but it’s encouraging to see that he played well against them in Week 2. The biggest reason for our concerns are the chart below, as it shows his career with and without Will Fuller, which makes him just a high-end QB2 this week.
| Games | Yds/gm | YPA | TD/gm | FPts/gm | |
| Without Fuller | 11 | 187.5 | 6.9 | 1.17 | 17.69 |
| With Fuller | 6 | 288.3 | 9.0 | 2.73 | 30.19 |
RBs
Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: Once we finally come to grips that Lewis is the primary running back, he has a terrible performance. His 32 yards on 11 touches won’t do anything for his timeshare with Henry, who has now totaled 131 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries the last three weeks. The quarterback issues will leak into their production, though, make no mistake about it. The Texans have been dominant against the run this year, even if they allowed two easy touchdowns to Adrian Peterson last week. They’ve allowed just 3.50 yards per carry on the year on a large 219-carry sample size. Teams have averaged 66.0 plays per game against the Texans, so that should be considered a positive, but Henry isn’t likely to find much room against this defensive front. They’ve yet to allow a running back more than 82 yards on the ground this year. As for Lewis, there’s a little bit of hope, as they’ve allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs this year, which ranks as the second-most in the league. That’s about it, though, as they’ve allowed just 4.96 yards per target to running backs (7th-lowest), which is why they’ve allowed just 36.2 receiving yards per game to them. Henry should be considered a low-upside touchdown-dependent RB3/4 option while Lewis is just a mediocre RB3 who could be losing his grip on the larger workload.
Lamar Miller: It was good to see Miller bounce-back against the Redskins last week and total 86 yards on 20 carries, as the 21-yard rushing performance against the Broncos left a bad taste in owners mouths going into the bye week. The bad news is that the Titans are about as tough as it gets against the run, as they’ve yet to allow more than 85 yards on the ground this year, which includes Miller’s 14-carry, 68-yard performance against them in Week 2. The Titans did allow two touchdowns to the Colts last week but had allowed just three rushing touchdowns through their first nine games, so we don’t want to overreact to a very small sample size. Miller will have to get it done on the ground because not only has his quarterback lacked attempts, but the Titans have allowed just 292 receiving yards to running backs, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Miller shouldn’t be relied upon for anything more than high-end RB3 numbers this week.
WRs
Corey Davis: Here we go again… It’s maddening to watch Davis’ talent go to waste, but it’s how the cards have been dealt. After dominating Stephon Gilmore in Week 10, Davis saw just four targets that netted just two catches for 30 yards against the Colts, which was a good matchup. This matchup with the Texans is not. They’ve allowed just a 60.3 percent completion-rate, 7.27 yards per target, and a touchdown every 34.8 targets to wide receivers. All of that amounts to just 1.50 PPR points per target, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. Oddly enough, they have not allowed a single top-12 performance to a wide receiver all year long. The Texans don’t run shadow coverage on receivers, so he’ll see a mixture of Johnathan Joseph, Shareece Wright, and Kareem Jackson in coverage. While none of them are considered elite, they’ve played great as a unit due to the pressure their front-seven has created. As usual, Davis can win against them, but getting him a catchable ball is a different story. It’s hard to trust him as anything more than a high-end WR4 this week, though Mariota would be better than Gabbert.
DeAndre Hopkins: The lack of volume from Watson has bled into Hopkins’ targets over the last five games, as he has totaled eight or less targets in four of the last five games. While this may not seem significant, you need to know he saw at least 10 targets in each of the first five games. It hasn’t stopped him from performing though, as he’s scored six touchdowns in the last five games. He’s going to see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage this week, who was just roasted by T.Y. Hilton in coverage for 9/155/2. It was bad enough where the Titans may decide to go back to playing sides, but it wouldn’t matter to Hopkins, who straight-up delivers when he’s targeted. The last time these teams met, he posted 6/110/1 on 11 targets. Knowing that the Titans are likely to stuff Lamar Miller up the middle, they’re likely going to throw more than they have the last month and a half. Hopkins needs to be played as an elite WR1 in this game against a Titans secondary who’s allowed five different receivers post top-eight numbers.
Demaryius Thomas: After seeing three targets in his debut with the team, he saw just one in his second game, which has a lot to do with Coutee, who’s going to be the No. 2 target in the passing game. When you do the math, he’s the No. 3 target (at best) in an offense that averages just 31.0 attempts per game (6th-fewest). He’s also not someone who’s been a big red zone threat since his time with Peyton Manning, so you can’t even rely on those. He’s going to see Malcolm Butler in coverage, which is a great matchup, but not when you’re likely capped at 3-5 targets. He’s just a mediocre WR4/5 option until we see the Texans start to throw the ball more. Against the Titans, they really shouldn’t need to.
Keke Coutee: We didn’t know how the Texans would use Coutee with no Fuller, but it appears he’s the possession receiver over the middle of the field considering his 5.2-yard average depth of target in Week 11. It’s just one game, so it’s possible they’ll use him in different ways, but we don’t have any evidence of that just yet. Logan Ryan is the slot cornerback for the Titans and has been the lone consistent option in their secondary, as he’s allowed 22-of-33 passing for 284 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The best performance he allowed was to Julian Edelman, who was a former teammate who likely knew his weaknesses. Him and Keenan Allen were the only slot-heavy receivers who’ve totaled more than 60 yards against the Titans. Coutee should offer a solid floor knowing his role in the offense, so consider him a middling WR4 this week.
TEs
Jonnu Smith: It’s fair to say that the Titans have made Smith a much larger part of their offense since their bye week, as he’s totaled 13 targets over the last three weeks, turning them into 11 catches for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Quite different than his 5 catches for 44 yards and no touchdowns in the first seven weeks, eh? The eight targets in Week 11 was a new career-high for him, and he’ll take the momentum into a plus-matchup with the Texans who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve allowed a 73.6 percent catch-rate for 8.33 yards per target, and a touchdown every 14.4 targets to the position. The 5.3 receptions per game they allow to tight ends ranks as the 11th-most, and that’s despite a lack of competition. Of the noteworthy tight ends they’ve played, here are their totals: Rob Gronkowski 7/123/1, Jeff Heuerman 10/83/1, Eric Ebron 5/40/1, and Jordan Reed 7/71/1 just last week. While I’m not sure we’re ready to say Smith is a noteworthy tight end, he’s trending in that direction. He’s on the high-end TE2 radar, though the quarterback situation does worry me.
Ryan Griffin: I was curious to see how the Texans would handle the tight end snaps out of the bye, but nothing became any clearer. Griffin played 47 snaps, Jordan Thomas 34 snaps, and Jordan Akins 18 snaps. Even worse, Akins saw the most targets (2). Fortunately, it doesn’t matter this week, as the Titans are the best team in the league against the position. They’ve allowed just 3.6 receptions and 33.8 yards per game to tight ends, and are the only team who’s yet to allow a touchdown to them. Don’t stream a tight end from the Texans this week.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Total: 45.0
Line: CHI by 3.5
QBs
Mitch Trubisky (DOUBTFUL – pay attention for updates): It was always going to be a tough spot for Trubisky to perform against the Vikings, so it shouldn’t shock you all that much. For the most part, however, it wasn’t that bad of a game for him. While he was someone I suggested you avoided last week, you need to get over it quickly, as they’re about to play the Lions again, the team he earned NFC Player of the Week honors for in Week 10 when he threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns. There’s still a lot of maturing to do for the Bears starter, but he’s moving in the right direction. The Lions defense was without Darius Slay in Week 10, but he’s been there for most of the year where they allowed 8.96 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, which is the highest in the NFL. When teams throw the ball against them, they have success. There’s been just four quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 30 pass attempts against the Lions and here are their lines: Aaron Rodgers 442/3, Brock Osweiler 239/2, Trubisky 355/3, and Cam Newton 357/3. This game will be taking place on short rest which can affect players more than we know, but everything points to Trubisky jumping back into the QB1 conversation on Thanksgiving. Update: Trubisky is now considered doubtful for this game, as he suffered a shoulder injury late in the game against the Vikings. Because of that, he comes with more risk than most and slides down into the QB2 range even if he does play. If he sits, which seems likely, Chase Daniel would take his place, and he’s a quarterback with more knowledge in this system than most realize. He’s less appealing as they’d likely take a run-heavy approach to the game, but he’d still be on the low-end QB2 radar.
Matthew Stafford: It appears that Stafford will be without both Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson for this game, which is obviously less-than-ideal. Combine that with the fact that the Bears defense was able to maul him for six sacks two weeks ago and the outlook is grim. There were throws that could’ve been made by him against the Bears, though he was off his game while completing just 59.5 percent of his passes. The Bears have faced the sixth-most pass attempts this year but have allowed just the 19th-most yardage to quarterbacks, so Stafford will have to rely on touchdowns to carry him through. 7-of-10 quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against the Bears, but six quarterbacks have also thrown multiple interceptions, as they lead the league with 18 interceptions through 10 games. This may have been a matchup where Stafford could succeed but missing a few of his top options is worrisome. He also hasn’t topped 20 fantasy points since way back in Week 2, so the reward isn’t great enough for the risk you’re taking by starting him against the Bears. He’s just a middling QB2, though knowing that the Bears allow nothing on the ground, we could see him rack up some yardage through the air via the short passing game.
RBs
Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard: Another week goes by and another week where Howard is mediocre. The Bears are sticking with him though, and it’s likely to continue after we saw Cohen fumble the ball on a fourth-quarter carry against the Vikings. Howard has been the clock-killer for them, though all he did against the Lions in Week 10 was kill drives. That may have something to do with Damon Harrison, who has transformed the Lions run-defense up the middle. With him on the field, they allow just 2.74 yards per carry. Without him, they’ve allowed 5.63 yards per carry. He’s done massive things for the run-game, though it’s really hampered them in their pass-rush, as their sack percentage goes from 10.1 percent without him, to 2.5 percent with him. That bodes well for Cohen, who is an extension of the passing-game and doesn’t run it up the gut the way Howard does. Cohen has been somewhat underutilized in the offense as of late, as the Bears haven’t designed many screen plays to him. He’s totaled 16 targets over the last four games, which comes after his 30 targets in a three-week stretch from Week 4-7. There’s been just two running backs who’ve totaled more than 32 receiving yards against the Lions (Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey), so it’s not really a smash spot for either running back. Cohen is the preferred option due to his versatility but is more towards the high-end RB3 conversation, while Howard is a middling RB3 who needs to score in order to hit value.
LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick: Are you ready for an extra helping of Blount on Thanksgiving? He’ll bring his 2.3 yards per carry into a matchup with the Bears, who have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. We did see the Lions total 67 yards and a touchdown against them two weeks ago, but that was thanks to Kerryon Johnson, who won’t play this week. The rushing touchdown that Johnson scored against them two weeks ago was the first and only one they’ve allowed to a running back all season, which makes Blount a very unattractive option, though he could get a goal-line plunge at any point. He’s just a TD-dependent RB4. Riddick is a bit of a different story, as you have to view him as a slot receiver more than a running back. He’s now seen 22 targets over the last three weeks and it’s hard to see that changing this week. He’s one of five running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 yards through the air against the Bears, as he totaled a season-high 60 yards in Week 10 against them. Don’t be shocked to see him get a few carries in this game, too, as he totaled 17 carries for 84 yards in two games against the Bears last year. While they weren’t as dominant, they were still a top-tier run-defense. Riddick should be played as an RB3 in standard formats and as a low-end RB2 in PPR formats. If there’s a wildcard in this game, it could be Zach Zenner, who offers more three-down versatility than Blount. If you’re looking for a last-ditch option because you have no one else, he could see more work than most expect.
WRs
Allen Robinson: After lighting the Lions world on fire in Week 10, Robinson had what was likely his worst game of the season against the Vikings. It’s odd, too, because he wasn’t even shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. He wasn’t running crisp routes, stopped in routes (one that led to an interception), and even had a drop. Everyone is entitled to a bad game from time-to-time, so we’ll just move forward. The Lions got Darius Slay back from injury last week, though it didn’t stop them from allowing Cam Newton to pass for 357 yards and three touchdowns. Slay was in coverage on one of them and has now allowed five touchdowns on 45 targets in his coverage. This comes after allowing just three touchdowns on 106 targets in coverage last year, so it’s possible that he’s still trying to play through a knee injury, but it should be noted that they did remove him from the injury report. Slay is still their best cornerback, so it’s not likely that Robinson sees the eight targets or efficiency that he had against them in their last meeting. Still, the Lions do allow the most yards per target (10.6) and touchdowns per target (one every 10.5 targets) in the NFL, so it’s not a matchup you should exactly run from. Don’t be shocked if Miller and Gabriel are the stars in this one, but Robinson is still the most heavily targeted and talented, so trot him out there as a high-end WR3.
Taylor Gabriel: If you didn’t see the Bears game against the Lions in Week 10, you likely looked at the box score and noticed that Robinson and Miller both had massive games, while Gabriel totaled three targets and no catches. What you didn’t see was Gabriel just missing on a 40-plus yard touchdown. With Darius Slay out for that game, the Lions were not properly equipped to defend Robinson, leading to fewer targets for Gabriel. Slay is back for this game which will lead to more targets for Gabriel, and the Lions defense has allowed a league-high 2.31 PPR points per target to wide receivers. He’s going to match-up with Nevin Lawson, a cornerback who runs near a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has allowed at least a 104.8 QB Rating in his coverage each of the last three years. Gabriel’s speed should flash in the dome and he should be in-play as a high-upside WR4 this week.
Anthony Miller: He continues to find the end zone at an incredible rate, as he’s now scored five touchdowns on 44 targets, or one every 8.8 targets. While Miller was known to be a menace in the red zone during his time in Memphis, as he scored 32 touchdowns over his final 26 games there, he’s not going to keep catching them at this rate. Fortunately for him, the Lions present the best opportunity in the league to have it continue in Week 12. They’ve allowed a touchdown every 10.5 targets to wide receivers, which is beyond ridiculous. No other team has allowed one more than every 11.6 targets (Bucs). Not just that, but he’s got the best matchup on the field. Undrafted rookie Mike Ford and last year’s second-round bust Teez Tabor will be tasked with slowing down Miller. The issue is that they’ve allowed 23-of-26 passing for 461 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. Miller saw just three targets against the Vikings last week but had seen at least six targets in each of the previous four games. He’s on the high-end WR4 radar this week.
Kenny Golladay: With Marvin Jones out of the lineup, Golladay saw all the targets he could handle against the Panthers, as he racked up 14 of them en route to a WR1-type day with eight catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. He made a few grabs in that game that were of the highlight reel variety, and he’s shown to be one of the toughest receivers to defend in single-man coverage, which the Bears do quite often. He totaled 6/78/1 against the Bears two weeks ago, and that was in a game where Stafford was clearly off-target for much of the day. Knowing that Golladay has seen 27 targets over the last two weeks, he’s clearly a must-play. The Bears secondary will see a lot of work because they allow nothing on the ground, and it’s why you saw Stefon Diggs rack-up 13 catches last week against them. Golladay is a different receiver than Diggs, so it’s not likely to be one of those games, but he can still win against Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. Opposing wide receivers average 23.2 targets per game against the Bears, which is the fifth-most in the league. Golladay is a borderline WR1 in this matchup.
Bruce Ellington: In his first game in a Lions uniform, Ellington played 33-of-65 snaps, but more importantly, he saw nine targets. Despite not having much time to learn the offense and develop chemistry with Stafford, he caught six balls for 52 yards against the Panthers, though that matchup was much better than the one he’ll have this week. Bryce Callahan is starting to get recognition for his play, though if you’ve watched him over the last few years, you already knew he was solid. He’s allowed a 74 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year but has limited the productivity against him due to just 7.9 yards per reception and one touchdown on 39 targets in his coverage. There are going to be targets to go around against the Bears, so he should at least deliver a 6-8-point PPR floor in this game, though there’s not much room for upside. He’s someone who you play if you’re in a 14-team PPR league and need one last bye week replacement available on the waiver wire.
TEs
Trey Burton: The questions are bound to flow in this week on whether or not owners should drop Burton, but I repeat, take a look at the tight end position this last week. Anyone who didn’t have Jordan Reed (nobody played Antonio Gates) was likely upset with their tight end’s performance. I won’t say that it’s not worrisome he’s seen just 12 targets over the last four weeks, but the production has been there, and he’s been heavily utilized in the red zone. The Lions have been a tight end-friendly defense this year, allowing 8.84 yards per target (5th-most) and a touchdown every 11.0 targets (5th-most often), though they’ve only faced an average of 5.5 targets per game, which is the fifth-fewest in the league. Burton caught all four of his targets against them in Week 10 for 40 yards, so the efficiency was there, just not the level of targets we’d hoped for. The Lions have allowed seven top-15 performances against them, but no one to finish better than the TE5 in any given week. Burton comes with upside in this offense that has so many different options, but that also leads to a lower floor than we’d like. He should still be in lineups as a low-end TE1 this week who could post top-five numbers.
Luke Willson: Despite not having Marvin Jones in the lineup, having a matchup with the team that allows the most fantasy points to tight ends (Panthers), and in a game where Stafford threw the ball 37 times, no Lions tight end was playable. Willson saw just one target but didn’t catch it, while Levine Toilolo actually played more snaps than him. It’s clear that the tight end position is an afterthought in this offense, so there’s no need to consider any of them. Not to mention the fact that the Bears have allowed just 6.07 yards per target to tight ends, the third-lowest mark in the league. If you’re paying attention, there’s nothing that says you should play a Lions tight end despite the circumstances that should have led to targets.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 40.5
Line: DAL by 7.5
QBs
Colt McCoy: If you saw what happened to Alex Smith last week, you know he’s not playing football for a long time. McCoy stepped-in and played decent enough, completing 6-of-12 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, while adding 35 yards on the ground. He’s only started four games in his Washington stint, though all of them came back in 2014, so it’s difficult to say they’ll be relative to where he is now. The Redskins are likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams once again and we know they’ll be without guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao. That’s a lot to put on McCoy, especially when he’s going against a Cowboys defense that’s still yet to allow more than two passing scores in any one game. They’ve now held 7-of-10 teams to 20 points or less (including the Falcons last week), and the most they allowed to the remaining three teams was 28 points. With limited options to throw to while on the road in a tough matchup, McCoy isn’t streamer material.
Dak Prescott: After posting 20.2 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games, Prescott struggled to get much going against the Falcons in Week 11 and finished with just 208 scoreless yards through the air, though he did run for a touchdown, eliminating a complete bust. The Redskins are a team he played just four weeks ago and finished with 273 yards passing with one touchdown, and then another 33 yards and touchdown on the ground. That was much better than the results against them last year, as he totaled just 143/0 in the first meeting and 102/2 in the second meeting on Thanksgiving. The Redskins are coming off a game in which they held mobile quarterback Deshaun Watson to 208 yards and one touchdown, though they had allowed each of the previous seven quarterbacks to throw for at least 265 yards. The bad news is that all but one of them totaled at least 35 pass attempts, a number that Prescott has hit just twice all season. The Redskins have been just a mediocre pass defense this year, but Prescott and the Cowboys are likely to employ a run-heavy gameplan against the Redskins who will be led by Colt McCoy, meaning Prescott could suffer in the volume department. That keeps him in middling QB2 territory, though he should offer a decent floor.
RBs
Adrian Peterson: The two plays that Peterson scored on last week looked nearly identical, where the Texans flooded the middle of the field, Peterson went up the gut, stuck his foot in the ground, bounced outside and walked into the end zone. The Cowboys will be without linebacker Sean Lee once again in this game, though their first-round draft pick Leighton Vander Esch has stepped-in and played well. As a unit, they’ve allowed just 3.65 yards per carry on the year, though they did allow Peterson 99 yards on 24 carries earlier this year, but it’s important to note that he didn’t score. The Cowboys have allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year, but we can’t automatically cross Peterson off because the Texans (the team he just scored twice on) had allowed just three rushing touchdowns before Peterson played them. It’s hard to imagine the Redskins a more efficient offense under McCoy and knowing the Cowboys have not allowed any running back to finish top-20 without at least 22 yards receiving, Peterson is tough to recommend as anything more than a middling to low-end RB2 this week, as he’s failed to record more than 16 receiving yards since way back in Week 5.
Ezekiel Elliott: As expected, Elliott demolished the Falcons defense for over 200 yards and a touchdown. It’ll be a much tougher matchup this week, as the Redskins are the team who held him to a season-low 33 yards on the ground back in Week 7. Not just that, but they also held him to a season-low nine yards through the air. That’s the bad news, but the good news is that the Redskins seemed to have cooled off when it comes to their tough run defense. They allowed just 417 yards on 111 carries (3.76 yards per carry) with four total touchdowns the first eight weeks but have allowed 348 yards on 67 carries (5.19 yards per carry) with three total touchdowns over the last three weeks that included just Tevin Coleman, Peyton Barber, and Lamar Miller. Now, Elliott did tag them for 150 yards and two touchdowns last year, though the Redskins front-seven wasn’t playing nearly as well at that time, but it is the same scheme on defense. One red-flag about this matchup is that they’ve allowed just one run-play to go for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the best in the NFL. This is bound to be a low-scoring affair with McCoy under center and knowing that each team allows just 61 plays per game to their opponent, it’s not a week to be too excited about many fantasy options. Elliott is likely the only one you can play and feel great about, as he’s an RB1 every week. The recent trends for the Redskins on defense make me a bit more optimistic about playing him in DFS, but you don’t have to force the issue.
WRs
Josh Doctson: He’s still stuck in that 4-7 target range, but he’s also stuck in the 31-49-yard range over the last five weeks and has still yet to reach 50 yards this season. Now going against a Cowboys defense that’s allowed just seven wide receivers to get into top-36 territory this season, it’s not a matchup to exploit. He’s also going to match-up with Byron Jones the majority of time, who has been their best cover cornerback and one who’s yet to allow a touchdown on 43 targets in coverage. Doctson could always sneak in a jump-ball touchdown, but even if he did, he’d likely wind-up with 30 yards and a score. He’s not worth the risk in your lineups as anything more than a WR5/6-type option, though you have to wonder if McCoy will throw it into tight coverage a bit more often than Smith did.
Jamison Crowder/Maurice Harris: It seems like Crowder is still a ways away from playing and it’s unlikely that four days in between games will change his status, so we have to assume Harris will take his spot in the slot once again. Harris came back down to earth this past week totaling just one catch for 13 yards on four targets. It seemed like he and Smith had a connection, though it seems unlikely to be the same with McCoy under center. The slot position is covered by Anthony Brown, who has been consistently average this year. He’s not a shut-down guy that you need to avoid, while he’s also not someone you need to target. The options are limited for McCoy, so we could see 4-6 targets, though it’s not an attractive matchup against a Cowboys team who’s allowed just seven top-36 performances all year to wide receivers. He’s just a weak WR5 option and not one who comes with much upside.
Amari Cooper: It was definitely a letdown performance against the Falcons, as Cooper saw just five targets that netted three catches for 36 yards. It was an Elliott-heavy game, which will happen to Cooper from time-to-time in this offense. Fortunately, the Redskins biggest weakness is through the air, as they’ve allowed multiple pass-catchers to rack up double-digit PPR days in each of their last nine games. Josh Norman is likely to be the one to shadow Cooper, and though he was really good at one point in his career, he’s not the guy you avoid anymore. He’s allowing a 68 percent catch-rate in his coverage, along with five touchdowns on 47 targets. Over the last month, he’s had his hands full, facing Odell Beckham (8/136/0), Julio Jones (7/121/1), Mike Evans (3/51/0), and DeAndre Hopkins (5/56/1), so Cooper isn’t anything new. The five-target game was showing he’s not automatic in the Cowboys offense, but he’s still going to be in the WR2/3 conversation more weeks than he won’t. This is likely to be a slow-paced game, making Cooper a middling WR3, though he should provide a solid floor.
Michael Gallup: Having a down week is understandable after hearing about Gallup’s situation in Week 11, and we wish nothing but the best for him and his family. He’ll be playing with a heavy heart in this game, but that will sometimes bring out the best in someone. The Redskins will almost certainly have Josh Norman following Cooper around, which would leave Gallup with Fabien Moreau, provided Quinton Dunbar doesn’t return to the lineup (been out since Week 9). Moreau was covering the slot for much of the year and doing very well but struggled a bit when asked to move to the perimeter, allowing 5-for-5 passing for 109 yards in his first game there. The Texans targeted him just once last week, so he wasn’t really tested, while Gallup has now seen at least five targets in three of his last four games. There have been 17 wide receivers who’ve posted top-36 numbers against the Redskins, so while Gallup is not a sure thing, the matchup isn’t one to run from. Put him in the low-end WR4 conversation this week.
Cole Beasley: He’s the guy you never want to completely forget about because we’ve seen him pop-up with three multi-touchdown games in the last two years. In fact, he hasn’t scored outside of those games, so it’s feast or famine with him. He’s seeing a somewhat steady flow of targets in the offense, including 35 of them over the last five games. The last time these two teams met, he was covered by Fabien Moreau, who has since had to move to the outside because of the injury to Quinton Dunbar. That means Beasley will see Greg Stroman, a seventh-round rookie who’s allowed 17-of-27 passing for 303 yards and two touchdowns this year. We have a very small sample size of what he can do, but it appears to be a matchup that Beasley can win if they choose to attack that area of the field. He totaled 7/56/0 the last time they played, so he can be kept on the radar as a high-floor WR5 option who’s worth more in PPR formats.
TEs
Jordan Reed: You would think that a starting quarterback going down would hurt the value of a tight end, but that may not be the case with Reed, who was seemingly never on the same page with Alex Smith. Ironically, he had his biggest game of the year and caught his first touchdown pass since Week 1 from McCoy. It came out prior to the game that Reed is still dealing with pain in his feet, which is never something you want to hear from a pass-catcher. Whatever the case, he said he’s learning to play through it, and his 11-target, seven-catch performance matches up with that. The Cowboys have been one to target tight ends with in PPR formats, as they’ve allowed a 75.6 percent catch-rate to them, which ranks second-highest in the NFL. Reed saw just four targets in their first meeting, hauling in two of them for 43 scoreless yards, so they weren’t tested. The completion percentage ties in to what they’ve done all year, as keep the play in front of them, and it’s also the reason they allow a league-low 9.4 yards per reception to tight ends. Consider Reed a low-end TE1 who should have a solid PPR day, though he may not provide a massive ceiling.
Blake Jarwin: The Cowboys are going to be going with a tight end by committee situation once again this week, as Geoff Swaim broke his wrist in Week 11 and will be out for multiple weeks. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter all that much because the Redskins have had D.J. Swearinger essentially removing the tight end position for opponents. They’ve still yet to allow a tight end more than 48 yards in a game and they’ve played Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Austin Hooper, Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron, and others. The 6.1 yards per target they’re allowing to the position doesn’t inspire any confidence in any of the Cowboys tight ends this week, so feel free to avoid them.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Total: 59.0
Line: NO by 13.0
QBs
Matt Ryan: Coming off his worst game since Week 1, Ryan and the Falcons will head to New Orleans to play a Saints team that just held Carson Wentz and the Eagles to just seven points in Week 11. That’s not going to happen in a divisional matchup, as these teams know each other far too well. Ryan didn’t fare too well in New Orleans last year, totaling just 288 yards and one touchdown, but he seemed to adjust well in their first meeting this year, posting 374 yards and five touchdowns. While the Saints may not be the dominant defense they were in 2017, they’ve taken strides to get back to that level in 2018, holding Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz to just 31-of-53 passing (58.4 percent) for 309 yards (5.83 yards per attempt) and one touchdown while intercepting five passes. Those teams have struggled a bit as of late, while the Falcons have been a top-10 scoring team all season. Prior to Dalton and Wentz, they had allowed 343.0 yards per game and 2.3 touchdowns per game to the combination of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco, so we can’t automatically assume the Saints defense is completely fixed. The concern is that the Saints opponents average just 58.2 plays per game, the second-lowest in the NFL, so the game may not provide the volume that some think. Ryan is still in play as a high-end QB1 this week in a game with a 59-point total.
Drew Brees: He now has 25 touchdowns to just one interception on the season, which comes just one year after he tallied 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions over an entire 16-game season. The crazy part is that he’s thrown 36 or less passes in every game since Mark Ingram returned to the lineup, but has thrown 17 touchdowns in those six games, propping-up his fantasy totals. He’s now thrown 11 touchdowns on his last 91 passes (12.1 percent). The Falcons defense played well against the pass last week but were absolutely gashed by Ezekiel Elliott as he totaled over 200 total yards. The Saints didn’t have Ingram the last time they met when Brees tagged them for 396 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran in two touchdowns in that game, but don’t expect that to happen ever again. The Week 3 performance against the Falcons was his best fantasy games since Week 8 of 2015. They’re still allowing over a 70 percent completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt, so the matchup is just as good now as it was back then. Brees will be missing his starting left tackle once again, but the Falcons have a sack rate of just 4.8 percent, which is the fourth-lowest in the league, so it’s tough to think that’ll affect him much. Brees is an elite QB1 at home and there’s nothing about the Falcons defense that should scare you.
RBs
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: It’s now been six weeks since Coleman tallied more than 13 carries in a game and it’s not likely going to change against the Saints, who’ve allowed just 548 yards on the ground (next closest is the Bears who’ve allowed 632 yards). The 3.45 yards per carry is among the best, but it also helps that opponents average just 58.2 plays per game and 15.9 carries per game against them. That’s why we’ve yet to see a running back reach 70 yards on the ground against them, which includes Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley. Those two make up 50 percent of the running backs who’ve finished as top-20 options against them, with the other two being Latavius Murray who totaled 18 touches and scored a touchdown back in Week 8, and then Josh Adams last week. The Falcons offensive line missing multiple starters doesn’t help, but it didn’t even matter when they were healthy as Coleman totaled just 33 yards on 15 carries against them. It’s promising that he’s seen 15 targets over the last three weeks, which should keep him afloat in the low-end RB2 conversation. Smith has been tagging along but we always knew that when his touchdowns stopped, he’d be a weak option. In a game that’s projected to have plenty of scoring, it keeps him on the RB4 radar, but it’s not a matchup where many running backs have been able to succeed, let alone two of them.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: Has everyone learned to chill out with the Ingram hate by now? After everyone thought Kamara would get all the red zone touches, Ingram has out-carried Kamara in the red zone over the last two weeks (7 to 6). Last week was a blowout, but that’s what we’ve come to expect from the Saints, and even oddsmakers have taken notice, making them 13-point favorites in a divisional game against the Falcons. Here’s the stat I used on the Falcons last week (updated after Ezekiel Elliott‘s game last week): Of the eight running backs who’ve seen at least 13 touches against them, they’ve all totaled at least 18.2 PPR points and finished as a top-12 running back. They’ve allowed 4.89 yards per carry (sixth-highest), 14 total touchdowns (fourth-most), and 17.6 PPR points per week through the air to running backs (2nd-most). As you can see, they don’t have much of a strength against the Saints running backs and it’s why we saw Kamara set a record against them back in Week 3 with 20 receptions (most ever by a running back). Coming off a week where his usage was limited, Kamara should be in-line for a massive workload and is a top-three play this week. Ingram has a bit more wear on his tires over the last two weeks, so the Saints could go back to using Kamara a bit more with them playing on a short week. Ingram still needs to be played as a borderline RB1 due to the way this offense is moving right now. Some will be concerned about linebacker Deion Jones potentially returning, and while that would help, it’s not enough to scare you off this dynamic duo.
WRs
Julio Jones: He’s now posted at least 104 yards in five straight games and six of his last seven. Did you hear that he’s scored in three straight games? So much for the whole “Julio doesn’t score touchdowns,” eh? He’ll likely be matched-up with Marshon Lattimore this week, who held him to a 5/96/0 line in Week 3, though it was actually a little bit worse than that, as Jones caught a 58-yard bomb late in the game when the Saints moved Lattimore over to cover Ridley due to him going off for three touchdowns in that game. In two matchups against Lattimore last year, Jones totaled 5/98/0 and 7/149/0, so it’s fair to say that Jones can still put up elite numbers in a tough spot. Lattimore hasn’t been immune to giving up big games, either, as we’ve seen Stefon Diggs post 10/119/1 and Mike Evans post 7/147/1 against him this year. Jones needs to be plugged-in as a middling WR1 who may not extend his touchdown streak, but he offers a fantasy floor that other receivers drool over.
Calvin Ridley: Remember when Ridley had his breakout 146-yard, three-touchdown game? Well, that was against the Saints. The secondary has changed since then, as they added Eli Apple to the secondary to replace Ken Crawley, the guy Ridley burned over and over. Since coming to the Saints, Apple has allowed 18-of-26 passing for 251 yards and two touchdowns. He’s played much better the last two weeks, but it’s important to note that he saw a lot of Alex Erickson and Nelson Agholor, so it’s not as if he’s been tested. The Falcons are likely to attack this matchup once again, making Ridley an upside WR3 who has disappointed as of late, but touchdown regression was always going to happen. If you’re stuck deciding between Ridley and another wide receiver in the low-end WR3 range, he should probably be your choice.
Mohamed Sanu: It’s been a good couple of weeks for P.J. Williams, the cornerback who’ll be tasked with covering Sanu this week. He’s held Tyler Boyd to 3/65/0 and Golden Tate to 5/48/0 the last two weeks, though they were targeted just eight times against Williams. The Saints treated Boyd like he was A.J. Green, bracketing coverage and bringing a safety down to help at times. With the Falcons, they cannot do that with Jones and Ridley out on the perimeter. Sanu totaled four catches for 36 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting, though that was when they still had Patrick Robinson covering the slot for them and were mixing Williams in with Ken Crawley on the perimeter. Bottom line, it’s a plus-matchup for Sanu who appears to be over his hip injury, as he’s now seen 14 targets over the last two weeks. He’s posted at least 45 yards in six of the last seven games, so trot him out there as a relatively safe WR4 against the Saints.
Michael Thomas: Another week goes by and another week where Thomas is over a 90 percent catch-rate. The fact that he would catch 9-of-10 targets on average is simply insane. Just as a gauge, the average catch-rate for wide receivers last year was 58.7 percent. The highest catch-rate of someone with at least 30 targets in 2017 was Golden Tate at 76.7 percent. Now going against a team who has no clear-cut No. 1 cornerback, and as a team has allowed a 64.2 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, it’s not likely to drop very significantly, if at all. In their Week 3 meeting he caught all 10 of his targets for 129 yards, though he didn’t score. There have been five wide receivers who have posted top-eight numbers against them, including six receivers to hit the 100-yard mark, and five receivers who totaled at least eight receptions. Thomas is an elite WR1 play every week and this game is no different.
Tre’Quan Smith: After many moved on, Smith erupted against the Eagles totaling 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. We talked about him a lot here last week and how he had been playing as many snaps as Thomas, but that he just wasn’t being targeted in those gameplans for whatever reason. With Thomas seeing just four targets and Kamara seeing just one target, it obviously opened up a lot of opportunity for him in a plus-matchup. Those games will happen from time-to-time, but don’t get comfortable with him as an every-week start knowing that he’s third (at best) in the pecking order for a team that’s passing the ball just 28.8 times per game with Ingram in the lineup. That’s why he saw just seven targets in the previous three games. The Falcons secondary isn’t one where they’ll need to target Smith heavily, as Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram all have plus-matchups. The Eagles legitimately doubled Thomas last week on most plays, which is why Smith went off the way he did. The Falcons don’t do this with opponents. Of the six receivers who’ve gone for 100-plus yards against the Falcons, three were clear-cut No. 1 receivers while the other three were slot receivers. Smith isn’t either of those, making him just a high-risk/high-reward WR4-type option this week.
TEs
Austin Hooper: His game last week fit in with what the Falcons have done all season. Exploit bad matchups all over the field, and despite Zach Ertz destroying the Cowboys, they’d been great against tight ends. The Saints are another team you want to avoid with tight ends, as they’ve been straight-up dominant against them. There’s still yet to be a tight end who’s scored 8.0 PPR points against them this year, which includes Ertz, who they just held to just two catches for 15 yards. Hooper shouldn’t be on your streaming radar as anything more than an emergency TE2 in Week 12 and shouldn’t even be used in tournaments.
Ben Watson: What in the world happened to Watson last week? He didn’t see a single target while backup Josh Hill saw a season-high four targets. If we look closer, Watson’s snap counts have been dropping rather quickly, as he played 50-80 percent of the snaps in Weeks 1-7 but has dropped down to 26-46 percent over the last four weeks. This is an issue in an offense that’s got limited attempts to go around. He’s totaled just four targets over those last four weeks, making him almost unplayable. The fact that Brees is throwing touchdowns at such an incredible rate makes him somewhat of an option, but you have to understand the risk you’re taking. If you think you’re being swift by playing Hill, he’s played similar snaps all year (55-70 percent) and has not popped in fantasy. It’s best to avoid this situation outside of tournaments where either of them can catch two touchdowns at any time. Just know that the Falcons have allowed just three tight end touchdowns all season and rank as a bottom-12 matchup for tight ends.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
