Can you feel it? NFL season is upon us. In less than a month, we’ll be hearing feet stomping while pads and helmets collide. We’ll hear more than normal this time around because, well, there will be no fans in the stands. Just you and your buddies corraled on the couch, rooting on while your favorite team lets you down (sorry, I’m a Bears fan).
What better way to deal with the pressures of the world than to bury yourself into a fantasy world? That’s right. Put away Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Turn off your television or iPad for a moment. Put away all the negative energies in your life and focus on your own fantasy. Get you mind right, I’m talking about fantasy football.
This season is going to be different than any other. Sunday morning inactive lists will be longer than ever before. Because of that, the strong will survive. Those who pay attention will be rewarded for thier dedication. To help you prepare, I’ll be doing The Primer every single week. If you don’t know what that is, I did a draft day edition right here. There’s a paragraph on every player from every team. Seriously, soak it in. I’ll also be doing a Sunday morning livestream on our YouTube channel where I let you know of all the latest news and answer your questions (subscribe here).
But to get you started, here are my 2020 fantasy football rankings. You don’t need to draft strictly off them, but you’ll at least get an idea as to what tier players belong in during your drafts. Remember, balance your roster throughout. Sure, upside wins championships, but you can’t have 16 players with boom-or-bust potential every week. Keep in mind this is for half-PPR formats.
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB – Panthers)
Say what you want about just one running back repeating as the No. 1 fantasy option since 2003, but that’s the only argument you can make. If you’re going to use logic, there’s no argument against McCaffrey as the top pick in fantasy drafts. He outscored every other running back by a whopping 122.9 half PPR points. In fact, McCaffrey would’ve finished as the No. 1 running back if he’d stopped playing in Week 12. There is a new head coach and quarterback, which does present some obstacles, but let’s not pretend that Scott Turner is a great offensive mind, or that Kyle Allen was a great quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater actually had the lowest average depth of target (6.2 yards) among any quarterback last year, highlighting his willingness to check the ball down. That’s a good thing for McCaffrey. It’s worth noting that Alvin Kamara‘s best receiving game in 2019 came with Bridgewater under center (9 receptions, 92 yards, touchdown). The Panthers talked about potentially taking some of the load off McCaffrey, but they didn’t add anyone who’ll do that this offseason. He’s the RB1.
2. Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Did you know that Elliott is the only running back over the last five years who has three top-five finishes to his name? Oddly enough, he’s never finished as the No. 1 running back. He’s definitely a candidate to finish there, especially when you consider his increased usage in the passing game the last two seasons. After totaling 78 targets his first two seasons, he’s been boosted to 166 of them the last two years, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys lost Jason Witten and his 83 targets, as well as Randall Cobb and his 83 targets. The only concern you have is the Cowboys wanting to involve Pollard a bit more to keep Elliott fresh as the season goes on. Pollard only totaled 101 touches last year, but he was explosive with them. No matter the case, Elliott is a slam-dunk top-five pick, and I’d likely take him at No. 2 overall, as Saquon Barkley‘s schedule is absolutely brutal to start the year.
3. Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
It was clear that Barkley tried coming back from his high-ankle sprain way too early last year and it impacted his numbers. Still, he posted RB1-type numbers in 46.2 percent of his games, which ranked eighth among running backs. The offensive system is changing and that’s probably a good thing, as Jason Garrett has very much been a one-back system type coach. We’ve watched him give Ezekiel Elliott 399 up to carries/targets and DeMarco Murray 457 carries/targets, so why should he be hesitant with a 23-year-old Barkley? Since 2014, every one of his offenses has finished top-10 in rushing yards and have finished top-five in yards per carry on 5-of-6 of them. I really don’t care too much about strength of schedule when it comes to running backs, but if you’re looking for a tie breaker, Barkley’s first three games are brutal. The Steelers didn’t allow any running back more than 17.5 PPR points last year, and just one to post more than 14.2 PPR points. The Bears are nasty up front when Akiem Hicks is healthy. The 49ers allowed just two running backs to crack 89 yards. Again, I don’t want to put too much stock into schedule because Barkley presents one-play upside every single week, but it’s just those little things that can separate RB1/RB2/RB3 in your rankings. If you want safety Ezekiel Elliott is probably the choice, but if you want upside, well, Barkley has it.
4. Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Apparently, Kamara tore something in his knee back in Week 6 of last year and also suffered a high-ankle sprain that led to him missing two games. So, when you see that he averaged 15 carries over the first five games and then just 10.7 for the remainder of the season (didn’t top 14 in a single game), it makes sense. That also explains why the Saints were a bit more pass-heavy when they were trending in the other direction. Kamara should return to his always efficient ways, though it’s hard to say he stopped while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. One of the craziest stats out there is that Kamara has totaled exactly 81 receptions in each of his three seasons, though his yards per catch has decreased every year. You’re getting at least 250 touches out of him with potential for 275-300, though you can’t say that’s guaranteed. Because of that, he’s just outside of the elite tier, but that doesn’t mean he can’t finish inside that tier if his efficiency gets back to 2017-2018 levels.
5. Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
It appears that Cook is going to play this year despite the threat of holding out without a new contract, though the issue is still lingering without any game action. Stay tuned to the situation. Cook was someone most labeled as “injury prone” over his first two seasons, as he played just 15 games and totaled a combined 969 rushing yards and four touchdowns in them. Insert 2019 and Cook is a surefire top-six pick in fantasy drafts. He exploded for 1,135 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in just 14 games. He also chipped in with another 53 receptions for 519 receiving yards. Some may be concerned about Kevin Stefanski leaving as the coordinator, but Gary Kubiak was the assistant head coach last year, and he’s been known to prop up run games. He’s now coached 14 teams who’ve finished top-eight in the league for rushing attempts. That’s remarkable. The Vikings running backs averaged a league-high 32.5 touches per game last year. Even lowering them to the No. 5-8 range (where Kubiak finishes more often than not), that’d be in the 28-29 touch range. There’s also a route to many more targets for him, as the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and replaced him with a rookie, albeit a first-round one, and I am projecting them to move towards the 500 pass-attempt mark. Knowing Cook is the go-to option in the offense with the majority of touches, he’s someone who can finish as the RB1. He still needs to stay on the field which has been a problem, as he’s missed 19 games over his first three seasons. If you were to assume Cook plays all 16 games, he would be in the top-three conversation with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. If something were to happen to Cook where he missed time, I do believe this team would employ more of a timeshare approach between Mattison, Boone, and Abdullah, though Mattison would still be at least an every-week RB2 start.
6. Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
I’m not sure how many realize how rare Thomas’ season was in 2019. He saw 185 targets on a team that threw the ball just 581 times. That’s a ridiculous 31.8 percent target share. Just so you know, it’s rare for a receiver to see a 25 percent target share. I’ve already stated in the Drew Brees paragraph that I expect this offense to throw just a bit less in 2020. Initial projections have them around 560 pass attempts, so bringing that down to even a 28 percent target share would force Thomas to lose about 28 targets. You can see why a repeat of last year’s numbers are unlikely, especially when you factor in the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders as a rock-solid No. 2 receiver who’ll garner more targets than Ted Ginn and/or Tre’Quan Smith would’ve. Still, Thomas is my WR1 heading into the season, because outside of injury, he’s projected as my top receiver by a full 15 half-PPR points.
7. Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Let the games begin. Despite the best teams in the NFL knowing the run was coming, Henry demolished the NFL playoffs. He racked up 446 yards and two touchdowns on the ground through just three games and added another 21 yards through the air. He finished the season with 103-plus rushing yards in 7-of-9 games, including 149 or more in six of them. What makes Henry even more unbelievable is this: The Titans are the only team in the NFL whose running backs have averaged less than 1.0 yards before contact in each of the last two years. So, losing Jack Conklin at right tackle may not be that big of a loss when you consider that. This team will ride or die with Henry, we know that. If they give him just the slightest of uptick in targets, his floor only goes up, and we already know he has a massive ceiling. I’m taking him as the sixth running back off the board.
8. Davante Adams (WR – GB)
I’m convinced that because Adams missed part of the 2019 season, many don’t realize just how consistent he’s been over the last few years. He’s played 27 games in that span and has scored 16-plus PPR points in 23 of them. The Packers didn’t add a wide receiver in the draft, so it’s not likely his massive target-share is going away. Do you know how many receivers averaged over 10.0 targets per game last year alone? Three. Now how many has Adams averaged over the last two years combined? 11.0 targets per game. That’s ridiculous. He comes with an ultra-high floor, as well as the ceiling to be the WR1. If you wanted to take him over Michael Thomas, I wouldn’t fault you. They’re both in the same tier, except Thomas has had more talent put around him (Emmanuel Sanders) while Adams has actually lost players around him (Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham who accounted for 115 targets last year). He’s a first-round pick.
9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
There may be a lot of names listed here, but make no mistake about it – Edwards-Helaire is the one that matters. The Chiefs selected him in the first round of the NFL Draft after Patrick Mahomes said that’s who he wanted. After that, we heard Andy Reid say that Edwards-Helaire is better than Brian Westbrook on film. After hearing about Damien Williams opting out this season, Edwards-Helaire shot up draft boards, and rightfully so. Andy Reid has now coached for 20 years. Do you know how many times he didn’t have a top-18 fantasy running back? Five times. And keep in mind, injuries can really impact those numbers. Many will talk about “running backs don’t matter” and this and that, and while I don’t fully agree with that sentiment, they don’t matter as much as some think they do. Reid’s offense works, period. Edwards-Helaire was my top running back in this year’s class before he landed with the Chiefs because I thought he was the best fit for today’s NFL. Landing with Reid only heightened my excitement, as he can be 2020’s on-field version of Ray Rice, who was consistently a top-three fantasy running back. We haven’t seen Edwards-Helaire on an NFL field yet, and that has a lot of fantasy owners worried. But what if I told you he’d get 250 touches this year? Over the last seven years, first-round running backs have averaged 251 touches their rookie season with just one falling below 197 touches. The floor is there for Edwards-Helaire, while the ceiling is a top-five running back. I’d feel comfortable taking him with a pick in the right around No. 10 overall.
10. Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
Fade aging wide receivers, they said. Julio laughs as he posted his sixth straight season with more than 1,390 yards. He still has just one season under his belt with double-digit touchdowns, which is quite ridiculous when you consider he’s had three seasons with 1,500-plus yards. He’s as safe as they come at the wide receiver position. Think 31 years old is too old? Check out this piece on what age a wide receiver declines. There are a lot of fantasy owners drafting Tyreek Hill over him, and while I understand the upside Hill presents on a weekly basis, Jones presents stability that Hill can only dream of. Hill has posted WR2 or better numbers in 21-of-43 games (48.8 percent) over his career. Meanwhile, Jones has hit that mark in 64.8 percent of his career games and has posted WR1-type numbers in 42.4 percent of them. Sure, Calvin Ridley is going to ascend, but a lot of his ascension comes from the missing targets from Mohamed Sanu. Jones should be the No. 3 wide receiver off draft boards, at worst.
11. Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
It’s one thing to project a breakout for a player due to an increase in opportunity. It’s another thing to project a breakout due to an increase in offensive production. Mixon got the opportunity last year under Zac Taylor, as he totaled 18-plus touches on 10 different occasions. But he’ll need the offense to take a step forward in 2020 if he wants to ascend into stardom, as he’s been an RB2 or better in just 57 percent of his games over the last two years. It makes sense to expect the offense to be better in 2019, as No. 1 pick Joe Burrow will be under center, and they’ll have last year’s first-round pick Jonah Williams back on the offensive line. Knowing Mixon’s workload and potential of the offense, he has top-three upside. However, for that to happen, he’d need to get more involved in the passing game. Did you know that Ronald Jones had just five fewer targets than Mixon last year? Mixon’s talent is obvious in the passing game, so we can hope for a leap in targets, but it seems unlikely with A.J. Green back, as well as the addition of Tee Higgins in the second round of the draft. Mixon is likely going to be a RB1 this year, but the top-six upside does require a slight change to the way he’s used in the passing game. The talent is certainly there. He belongs in the RB6-RB8 range in drafts.
12. Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI)
The Cardinals put the transition tag on Drake, which puts him in another contract year. From the time he joined the Cardinals last year (Week 9), he was the No. 4 fantasy running back while racking up 18.2 half PPR points per game. If the offense takes a step forward, Drake can finish as a top-three running back in fantasy football. He averaged 18.9 touches per game in that span. Think about it this way: No team can walk into a gameplan and say that Drake is their No. 1 priority with Kyler Murray‘s dual ability and DeAndre Hopkins‘ presence. Not many realize that Drake has just 456 career carries on his frame, which is just six more than Aaron Jones, who’s considered super young. Drake deserves consideration as a first-round pick as there’s no competition for the starting job.
13. Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
There are a lot of people who’ve been using last year’s stats to highlight why Hunt will have a big role in this offense and why Chubb lost a lot of upside because of it. But here’s the thing – it’s a brand-new offense with a brand-new coach. Last year’s splits that highlight Hunt as the No. 19 running back and Chubb as the No. 15 running back from Week 10 forward don’t make sense. With that being said, Hunt is talented enough where they’ll give him more touches than the average backup. The duo combined for 235 touches over the eight games they played together, or 29.4 per game. That’s… a lot. However, the Vikings running backs combined for 32.5 touches per game in 2019, which is all we really have to go off with Kevin Stefanski. If the Browns defense plays up to their talent level, we should see 28-plus touches to the running backs most weeks. Chubb is one of the better 1-2 down running backs in the league and should be getting 14-18 carries per game with a few targets as well. My current projections have him with 262 carries and 42 targets, so combined with his efficiency, he’s my RB9, or low-end RB1. I don’t feel like he gets enough work in the passing game to be considered a first-round pick in 2020, though he has the RB1 talent if Hunt wasn’t around.
14. Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
He’s a very good football player and one who can help you win fantasy weeks… but is he a No. 1 wide receiver on fantasy teams? In my Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, I highlighted the fact that he’s been a WR2 or better in just 44.1 percent of his career games, while someone like Julio Jones has posted WR1 numbers in 42.4 percent of his games. Hill averaged just 7.4 targets per game last year, a number that will need to come up for him to be a more consistent fantasy option. Can it happen? Absolutely. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not help that, nor will the supposed increase in Mecole Hardman offensive snaps. There were just two games in 2019 where Hill saw double-digit targets, which again, limits his consistency. By comparison, Davante Adams has averaged 11.0 targets per game over the last two years while Julio Jones saw 10-plus targets in 7-of-15 games in 2019. If you want to draft Hill as your WR1, I have no issue with it, but understand that you’ll need to balance your roster throughout the remainder of the draft. Robert Woods is someone that immediately comes to mind as consistent and reliable, and would make a perfect complement to someone like Hill.
15. Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
I’ll be honest… I was waiting for the Eagles to sign a running back all offseason. It never happened. Is it possible that Sanders is actually going to get the workhorse role in Doug Pederson’s offense? Many will point to the increased workload down the stretch, though that was by necessity, as Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery were all hurt. So, when you see his increased snaps, you understand where they came from. They needed bodies on the field. Sanders played 39.1 snaps per game in 2019. The previous high was Sproles back in 2016 when he played 34.1 snaps per game. Now go ahead and ask what the best running backs play… Christian McCaffrey 66.0, Ezekiel Elliott 58.9, Saquon Barkley 56.7, etc. You get the picture? But here’s your silver lining: From their bye week forward last year, Sanders played 53.9 snaps per game. They didn’t add anyone, meaning he should retain that role, though he may not be asked to do as much in the passing game with Jalen Reagor and DeSean Jackson healthy. But in Doug Pederson’s four years as the head coach, they’ve ranked top-10 in rushing attempts in three of them. If they don’t sign another running back, Sanders is likely to enter the RB1 conversation behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
16. DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI)
Did you know Hopkins hasn’t seen less than 150 targets since way back in 2014? Now going to a Cardinals team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, it’s unlikely he reaches that mark. The odd offseason also hasn’t given him a lot of time with new quarterback Kyler Murray. From reports, the first time the duo got together was at the end of June. Is that enough time to develop any sort of chemistry? Hopkins has played with a lot of bad quarterbacks in his time, though the only one who held him back from producing was Brock Osweiler, as Hopkins finished as the No. 29 wide receiver in 2016 despite seeing 151 targets. Murray’s rookie season wasn’t particularly efficient (both Fitzgerald and Kirk saw over 105 targets but outside the top-36 wide receivers), but we should expect growth in year two. There is a scenario where Hopkins is a rock-solid player but not a top-five fantasy receiver, however, given his history of producing with guys like Tom Savage, TJ Yates, and Brian Hoyer, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Still, his targets will take a hit, making him a second-round pick rather than the first-round one he’s been.
17. Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
NextGenStats tracks each player’s usage and routes throughout every game, and I wish I could remember who posted it, but Godwin’s routes were essentially the same exact ones that Bruce Arians used for Larry Fitzgerald back in Arizona. That’s a very good thing. I want to do an exercise with you. Close your eyes and imagine Tom Brady dropping back to pass. What do you see? Do you see him muscling a pass towards the sideline? I didn’t think so. I also saw him targeting a receiver over the middle of the field. Godwin played 63.4 percent of his snaps last year in the slot. He was second in the league in slot yards (838) behind only Cooper Kupp, and despite seeing 31 fewer slot targets than Kupp, he only finished with 15 fewer yards and the same number of touchdowns. Godwin’s average depth of target was 10.4 yards last year while Mike Evans‘ was 15.3 yards. The average depth of target for Brady last year was 7.6 yards down the field. It’s clear that Godwin should quickly become a favorite of Brady, who hates to take risks, as Godwin is a better separator than Evans. Believe it or not, there’s a clear path for Godwin to finish as the WR1 in 2020. I don’t say that about many receivers. He’s in the tier immediately after Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, and Julio Jones.
18. Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Talk about the model of consistency. Kelce now has four straight 1,000-yard, 83-plus catch seasons. Since Mahomes has taken control of the offense, Kelce has seen more volume than ever, racking up 286 targets over the last two years. He’s made them count, too. He’s posted TE1-type numbers in 28-of-32 games in that span, including top-five type numbers in 14 of them. George Kittle is the closest to him with 24 TE1-type games, while no other tight end has more than 19 of them. The downside is that the Chiefs have more weapons than ever with the addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the promotion of Mecole Hardman to a bigger role in the offense. Kelce is also going to be 31 years old this year, the age where tight ends typically start to lose that elite upside. Still, there’s no argument against Kelce as a top-two tight end. You can make the case that Kittle is starting to ascend in his career while Kelce will slowly begin a decline, but we haven’t seen it yet, and Kelce is tied to what most consider the best quarterback in the game. Knowing the weekly advantage Kelce/Kittle give you (again, Kelce produces TE1-type numbers 87.5 percent of the time with Mahomes), you should have no qualms about selecting him in the middle of the second round in your fantasy drafts.
19. George Kittle (TE – SF)
He finally got paid! It was only a matter of time. Knowing Kittle has produced literally record-breaking numbers on a team that’s thrown the ball just 31.6 times per game over the last two years, you should understand how good he is. He totaled at least 54 yards in 12-of-14 games despite playing through a torn labrum last year. He’s moving into the prime of his career, while Travis Kelce is hitting an age where we start to see tight ends lose elite upside (here’s the article highlighting at what age tight ends decline). Knowing that Deebo Samuel is likely going to miss a handful of games, we could see higher target totals than normal in 2020. It’s difficult for some to justify spending a second-round pick on a tight end, but when you look at my 2020 projections and see that Kittle would rank as the No. 7 wide receiver, it should help you understand why he’s a great pick at the end of the second round. Not only is that around where the No. 7 wide receiver is coming off the board, but it’s at a position where there are just a couple difference makers. He’s one of them. In fact, it’d be wise to expect him to be the best tight end in 2020.
20. Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
When there were rumors about the Packers drafting a running back, I scoffed at them thinking, “Why would they draft a running back with any equity considering the way Jones and Williams played last year?” The duo combined for 1,544 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground, and then another 727 yards and eight touchdowns through the air. Some are suggesting that Dillon will take the goal-line role, but from a logical standpoint, that doesn’t make sense. I did a study this offseason highlighting who the best running backs were inside the red zone, and Aaron Jones was No. 3 on that list, scoring 32.7 more fantasy points than the average running back would’ve with the same touches. But with Matt LaFleur, he hasn’t done a lot of things that make sense given the set of players he has available to him. Because of that, Jones is falling to the end of the second round/beginning of the third round. There is certainly risk to Jones but knowing he’s one of the most efficient running backs in all of football, the discount is enough to select him in that range. Worst case scenario is that he loses a few touches per game and he drops from high-end RB1 production down to low-end RB1 territory. Think about someone like Alvin Kamara, who continually does more with less. Jones may not be on the Saints offense, but he did just fine in this offense last year. The Packers running backs averaged 28.5 touches per game last year, so even if Jones gets 18 per game, that leaves 10.5 touches for the others.
21. Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)
It was pretty shocking for me to learn that Jacobs is being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. Not because he’s not talented, but rather because nothing has changed for the better. Jacobs wasn’t involved in the passing game last year, and while most are dumbfounded as to why, what makes us assume that he’ll be used in that role this year, especially when the Raiders added Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden, and Jason Witten to the offense, as well as re-signing Jalen Richard? Jacobs is a talented receiver and one of the reasons I liked him coming out of school, but to expect a significant increase in targets while in the same offense, with the same head coach, and having increased competition makes little sense. I know Mike Mayock (the GM) said he’ll be used more in the passing game, but what does that mean? Another 5-10 targets on the season? That’s not enough to boost him into elite territory. On top of that, this offense has ranked 24th and 28th in scoring over the last two years under Jon Gruden/Greg Olson. Did you know that 85.4 percent of top-six running backs come from top-18 scoring offenses? You can learn more about that here. I don’t doubt that Jacobs can finish as an RB1, but by taking him as the 7th-9th running back off the board, you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Instead, I’d rather take a running back you know has a big role in the passing game and attached to a high-scoring offense (ahem, Kenyan Drake).
22. Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
If you invested a first-round pick in Mahomes last year, you weren’t happy with the results. In games he started, he posted QB1-type numbers in just 57.1 percent of them. However, there were some factors to take into consideration. One, he was going to regress. Two, he suffered an injury during the Week 7 game against the Broncos that seemed to affect him throughout the remainder of the regular season. In the seven games following that injury, he threw for three touchdowns just once, while throwing for more than 283 yards just twice. Was that a sign of things to come? Probably not considering he threw for 901 yards and 10 touchdowns in three playoff games. You must ask yourself, “What’s the worst/best-case scenario with Mahomes?” prior to drafting him. Worst case was probably last year, where he was the No. 52 value-based player. That means if we’d drafted 2019 all over again, his value would’ve been correct as the 52nd player selected, so a fifth-round pick. Best case scenario is that he finishes as the No. 5 value-based player like he did in 2018. If you’re somewhere in the middle, he’s still worth a third-round pick with upside for more. Most of the time with Mahomes, it all just depends on your particular draft, as there are some who’ll see him go in the first round of their 1QB league. You’re baking in too much risk there. As a late-second, early-third round pick, you have some room for growth. Anything beyond that is just a steal. With the lack of offseason, it’ll affect defenses more than it will offenses, so we could see a record-breaking year for Mahomes.
23. Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
If we were replaying the 2019 season, Jackson would be the No. 2 pick in fantasy leagues, and it wouldn’t be a reach. He was behind only Christian McCaffrey in value based drafting score. We talk all the time about regression when it comes to quarterbacks with a high touchdown rate, and Jackson is no different after posting a ridiculous 9.0 percent touchdown rate in 2019. That’s going to come down. Lowering that mark to 5.0 percent (which is still above average), he would’ve thrown 20 touchdowns instead of the 36 that he did. However, something to help offset that is his rushing touchdown output. Based on where his carries took place last year, Jackson should’ve scored closer to 12 rushing touchdowns rather than the seven that he did. The downside to Jackson is that he’s a bit thinner than you’d like as a mobile quarterback. While it’s tough to get a clean hit on him, we have a history of mobile quarterbacks not withstanding a lot of hits. When you invest a second- or third-round pick on a quarterback, you need him on the field. If Jackson were a lock to play all 16 games, he’d be my QB1 and well worth a second-round pick. When you add in some of that risk, he’s more of a third-round selection. There were nine separate occasions last year where he delivered 28-plus fantasy points. Those are week-winning performances.
24. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE)
What in the world happened to Beckham in 2019? If we were replaying last season, we wouldn’t be drafting him until the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. But that’s where fantasy players go wrong. That’s a one-year sample size. We had 59 career games prior to that we can look at where he was the best game-by-game fantasy wide receiver of all-time. Which do you trust? Everyone on the Browns struggled last year and knowing that Beckham was playing through a hernia only added to the disappointment. 2019 was the first year he’d posted WR2 or better numbers in less than 66.7 percent of his games (which is ridiculous). We know the offense is changing, but that also comes with some concerns. While in Minnesota last year, Kevin Stefanski’s wide receivers combined for just 201 targets and a 43.1 percent target share, which ranked as the fourth-lowest mark in football. Stefon Diggs, who is also very talented, saw just 94 targets in 15 games last year. While I don’t expect the Browns to be as run-heavy as the Vikings were, it’s an added level of concern. But here’s the thing – it’s not like a lot of the wide receivers in the 10-15 range don’t come with similar issues or question marks. Beckham has done it before and has true No. 1 overall wide receiver upside. He’s in the prime of his career at 27 years old and his only competition for targets (Jarvis Landry) is coming off hip surgery. Getting him as your high-end WR2 is worth it.
25. Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
We saw a 150-plus target season for Robinson in 2019, which was a rarity among wide receivers. Based on where his targets took place, he had the fourth-most expected fantasy points among wide receivers last year. There’s little reason to expect that to change, as the Bears lost Taylor Gabriel and replaced him with an older, slower version in Ted Ginn. There were just two games last season where Robinson finished with fewer than seven targets, making him an easy every-week start. In fact, he posted WR2 or better numbers in 62.5 percent of his games, which ranked fifth behind only Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams. The fact that the Bears snagged Nick Foles only helps the Bears receivers, as they have twice the chance at competent quarterback play. Robinson should be considered a high-floor, low-end WR1, as it’s unlikely he comes with the ceiling of those with better quarterback play.
26. Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
I’m worried about Ekeler. He was awesome in 2019 and that needs to be acknowledged, but we also can’t pretend that we’re replaying the 2019 season again, right? Ekeler averaged 14.0 touches per game last year. Let that sink in for a second. That ranked 30th among running backs. Did you know that 73.5 percent of his production came through the air? No other running back who finished top-20 scored more than 48.5 percent of his production through the air. So, when you are moving from Philip Rivers, who totaled 591 pass attempts last year, to a quarterback that’s never thrown the ball more than 437 times, you’d better be factoring that in, big time. For all the hate on Rivers, he’s thrown at least 26 touchdown passes in 11 of the last 12 years. That’s a big piece of the guaranteed production that is now gone and it must be factored into Ekeler’s price. The good news for Ekeler is that he’s been hitting the weight room during quarantine and has put on a considerable amount of muscle. That could enable him to see an increased workload on the ground, though the Chargers offensive line isn’t what you’d describe as great. Carries are also worth much less than targets, so losing expected fantasy points and building in expected regression, you have to understand the risk associated with him. I’m fine with him as an RB2, but not an RB1.
27. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-PIT)
Did everyone forget just how talented Smith-Schuster is because he had a down year in 2019? He played through multiple injuries and dealt with what was probably the worst quarterback situation in the league. In Week 1 and Week 2, when Ben Roethlisberger was on the field, Smith-Schuster saw 16 targets, catching 11 of them for 162 yards. Not too shabby. Insert bad quarterbacks, paired with Smith-Schuster trying to run routes from the perimeter, and it was a recipe for disaster. The Steelers have vowed to put him back in the slot where he belongs, and he’s getting back Roethlisberger, who’s continually supported fantasy receivers throughout his long career. Going all the way back to 2008, Ben Roethlisberger‘s No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers combined for at least 225 targets on eight different occasions, including 334 times when he had Antonio Brown and Smith-Schuster in 2018. With Roethlisberger on the field, the Steelers haven’t thrown the ball less than 584 times since way back in 2012. It’s hard to see a scenario where Smith-Schuster doesn’t see at least 130 targets if he’s healthy (that would be just a 22.2 percent target share), which is elite volume, so even if he’s average, he’d be a high-end WR2. I’ll leave you with this… Smith-Schuster posted 1,426 yards in his second NFL season at the age of 22. There are just six players who posted more yardage in one of their first two seasons. The list includes Isaac Bruce, Josh Gordon, Torry Holt, Jerry Rice, Victor Cruz, and Odell Beckham Jr. We can’t pretend Smith-Schuster is anywhere close to average. He’s worth a third-round pick in drafts, even though many are getting him in the fourth.
28. Kenny Golladay (WR – DET)
There’s a natural trajectory for a wide receivers career, and that’s why Golladay is being drafted as a top-10 receiver. Many would say that he finished as a top-six receiver last year, but that’s a weak argument because he posted WR3 or better numbers in just 56.3 percent of his games (see all players in Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between). There’s certainly a ceiling with Golladay, but when Marvin Jones is in the lineup, that ceiling is capped. Again, we have natural progression to his career while Jones deals with age, so there should be a shift towards Golladay, but I believe he’s best suited as a WR2 on your fantasy team who may have WR1 upside if a big shift takes place.
29. Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
It’s somewhat maddening that Cooper can’t get the 150-plus targets that some do, as he’s continually one of the most efficient receivers in the league. Did you know Michael Gallup averaged more targets per game than Cooper last year? Cooper’s injury may have played into that but it didn’t stop him from being one of the best in the league. Based on the number of his targets and where they took place on the field, Cooper should’ve finished as the No. 23 wide receiver, and not the No. 9 receiver he did. In fact, he was the only receiver in the league who scored 20-plus more fantasy points than he was expected to in both the red zone and outside the red zone. The addition of CeeDee Lamb isn’t going to make getting targets any easier for Cooper, who’s now seen 195 targets in 25 games with the Cowboys. Because he’s not getting the gaudy numbers that some are, Cooper should be considered a semi-volatile WR2 in fantasy who has more WR1 upside than most on a weekly basis. If Cooper were to get 150 targets, I have zero doubts that he’d finish as a top-three receiver, but as we’ve seen, that just doesn’t happen.
30. James Conner (RB – PIT)
The Steelers are likely to run 120-plus more plays than they did last year with him under center. This is great for all parties involved, even the running backs. The team went from a 67.2 percent pass-rate to just 57.8 last year, which did allow the running backs to get more opportunities in general, but they weren’t as important because they were predictable. Despite totaling 44 more carries than they did in 2018, the running backs totaled 27 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns. Mike Tomlin has already come out and said that Conner will be the workhorse of the team, and while on the field, he’s been an RB1. If he’s on the field, he’s in your lineup no matter what. I’m good taking him at the end of the third if you want him. We know the risk, but the reward is worth it.
31. Mike Evans (WR – TB)
There are a lot of people who’ll point out the fact that Evans finished as a WR1 in 2019 despite missing three games. Well, I hate to break it to you, but he was not a WR1 in terms that actually matter to you, the fantasy player. Despite averaging an elite 9.1 targets per game, Evans posted WR2 or better-type numbers in just 38.5 percent of his games. That ranked 28th among wide receivers. Seriously, guys like Sterling Shepard, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder had higher percentages. Now you take away Jameis Winston, someone who was more than willing to throw the ball into tight coverage all the time, and swap him with one of the most risk averse quarterbacks in football? Evans’ 2.4 yards of separation at target was one of the worst marks among wide receivers, and while it doesn’t tell the full story, those who watch Evans knows he uses his body extremely well to box out defenders rather than gain multiple yards of separation with precision route running. Look, he’s still a good player who’s totaled at least 1,000 yards in each of his first six NFL seasons, so I’m not completely writing him off, though it does help that he’s seen at least 8.7 targets per game over the last five years. I don’t think Brady is as bad as some think at throwing the deep ball anymore, I just don’t think he does it nearly as often as Winston did/was willing to. I’m expecting a slight dip in targets and less air yards, which in turn, equals less production for a player like Evans. It’s not bad if you land him as your WR2, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a WR1.
32. Todd Gurley (RB – ATL)
After being cut by the Rams, the Falcons moved quickly, signing Gurley to a one-year, prove-it deal. The downside is that Dirk Koetter seems to continually destroy the fantasy value of his running backs. Since 2012, Koetter has coordinated or coached eight different teams. Just one of them finished better than No. 24 in rushing yards. Just two of them finished better than No. 22 in rushing attempts. Gurley’s knee is a question mark, though it’s been for years. Many talk about his arthritis, but he’s had that since college when he originally had it surgically repaired. As time goes on, it’ll get worse, which is why he’s falling in drafts. But playing for the Falcons, an offense that is very likely to finish top-12 in scoring (none of Koetter’s teams over the last eight years have finished outside the top-20), Gurley’s chances to be an impact fantasy running back go way up (check out this piece I did on team scoring and what it means). There are a lot of question marks and boring players going in his area of drafts, so give me the upside he presents if he stays healthy.
33. Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Prior to getting hurt and having his season cut short, Ridley was on pace for 1,066 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019, which would have had him as the WR14. Now going into his third NFL season, there’s a real chance for a breakout. Sure, Julio Jones isn’t going away but he doesn’t have to. Not many realize that Mohamed Sanu saw 94 targets in 2018 and was on pace for 96 targets before being traded in 2019. We don’t really expect Russell Gage to fill that role, do we? If you want to know if there’s room for both Ridley and Jones to be WR1s, look no further than the Bucs last year with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, even if it is rare for that to happen. Ridley saw 49 targets in the six games he played without Sanu, which would amount to 131 over an entire 16-game season. Ridley has real top-five breakout potential and is an ideal high-end WR2 on your fantasy team.
34. D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
It really stinks that we may not get to see Moore play with a top-tier quarterback during his early years. He’s an extremely good football player who’s been stuck in a bad situation. He made the most of bad targets last year, finishing as the WR18 and delivering WR2 or better performances 60.0 percent of the time, which ranked eighth among wide receivers. Now another obstacle to cross. He’ll have a new quarterback and a new head coach in 2020. The coach (Matt Rhule) also decided they needed to bring in Robby Anderson, a receiver who previously played under him, which could mean the targets get spread out a bit. The good news is that Bridgewater attempted a deep ball on just 7.1 percent of his pass attempts, which was the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and not an area where Moore operates. The talent is there for Moore to make a jump into WR1 status, but the situation doesn’t seem ideal with virtually no offseason. He’s best suited as a WR2 on fantasy teams, as top-24 should be his absolute floor.
35. Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
Just how many fantasy points should Fournette have scored last year? Based on his touches and where they took place on the field, he should’ve finished as the No. 3 running back. Instead, he finished ninth. Many are using that as a reason to see him as a value in 2020, but you can’t rely on last year’s workload with a new play caller. Jay Gruden has never had a running back finish better than RB13, which doesn’t bode well for the running back who’s averaged 3.95 yards per carry over the course of his career while scoring every 42.1 touches. Then you add in the fact that the defense is surely going to take a step back with the losses of Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, and Marcell Dareus, and it’s very likely we see a lot less rushing attempts. Oh, you want targets? He’s going to lose many of them to Chris Thompson, who Gruden brought with him from Washington.
36. Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
It was a down year for Thielen in 2019, who’s suddenly 30 years old (August 22nd, he will be) with back problems. That’s not a recipe for success for a wide receiver, though it helps that he’s the only steady presence at wide receiver. Most will look at the target totals from last year and wonder where his targets come from, but don’t forget that Thielen saw 298 targets over the previous two seasons. Last year was an incredibly efficient year for the Vikings on the ground, and when you combine the fact that Thielen missed half the season, you can understand why their pass attempts came crashing down to earth. With the defense likely taking a step back after losing many starters, we should expect to see their run-to-pass ratio come back towards the league average, which would help Thielen’s target potential. Knowing that he’s the only receiver in the starting lineup who has any chemistry with Cousins, we should expect at least eight targets per game. That calls for him being a high-end WR2 at the very least when he’s in the lineup, though his injury concerns have to be built into his cost. His current ADP is the WR11, which is too expensive for the risk you’re taking on.
37. Robert Woods (WR – LAR)
I’ve been on record as saying Woods doesn’t have that elite upside to finish as a top-six wide receiver or anything. That’s still true in my mind considering he hasn’t topped six receiving touchdowns in a single season. In fact, he’s scored just 13 receiving touchdowns during his 43 career games with the Rams. Still, that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent receivers in football. There are questions surrounding how the Rams will use Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, but there’s no questions around Woods, who’s cemented in his role. To know that Woods has been this consistent while not scoring a lot of touchdowns speaks volumes. He’s a rock-solid WR2 to have on your team, and even better, you get him at WR3 prices.
38. Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
There are a lot of fantasy owners expecting Marlon Mack to retain a big role in the offense. I don’t think so. The knock on Taylor coming out of college was that he had tons of miles on his tires and that he may be a one-contract player. After 926 carries in just three years at Wisconsin, it’s hard to disagree with the way today’s NFL is moving (running backs don’t typically get big second contracts). You don’t take a player like that at the top of the second round and put him on the bench. Mack has not been a difference-maker. Taylor can and likely will be. He reminds me a lot of Nick Chubb, a player who’s averaged a massive 5.08 yards per carry over the first two years of his career. And that’s not playing behind the top-three offensive line that Taylor will be. There’s a chance that Mack sees 6-10 touches per game, but what’s the difference between him and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland with Chubb? That’s where Hines becomes involved, as some think he’ll be the “new Austin Ekeler” for Philip Rivers. For that to happen, he’d have to actually be on the field. Hines played 21.3 snaps per game last year, and that was with Mack missing two full games. Ekeler averaged 38.1 snaps per game last year. Even if Mack and Hines get 8-12 touches per game, Taylor is going to be the guy in this backfield. He’s a value at his current ADP and comes with top-10 running back upside.
39. Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ)
Le’Veon Bell was legit one of the best running backs in football before Gase. Kenyan Drake went on to be the No. 4 running back in fantasy football without Gase. We can do this all day, but clearly Gase is a real problem. With that being said, Bell can be a value in fantasy drafts this year. Despite the offense crawling at a snail’s pace and Bell scoring just four times all year, he finished as an RB2 or better in 66.7 percent of his games, which ranked 12th among running backs. He’s currently being drafted as the RB21 in the 4th/5th round. Look, he’s not sexy and you’re going to have to surround him with a few upside players in your starting lineup, but he’s stable. Believe me, I didn’t want any part of him last year as a first-round pick and said that you could get similar results by drafting Leonard Fournette in the third round. This year, however, he’s not even close to the same price. The offensive line should be improved, though it may take time, and Gase “reportedly” wants to move at a faster pace (we’ll see). Even if Gore comes in and takes 4-6 touches per game, Bell’s due for some touchdown regression to the mean. If you snag him in the 4th or 5th round, I’m more than okay with that.
40. A.J. Brown (WR – TEN)
Prior to the NFL Draft last year, I had D.K. Metcalf as my 1A receiver and Brown as my 1B. Loved them both, but Metcalf’s landing spot moved him into the driver’s seat. Maybe I underestimated just how much Brown could do without an elite quarterback. Despite not being a full-time player until Week 9 and seeing just 84 targets, Brown finished as the No. 21 wide receiver in his rookie season. There have been just 10 wide receivers over the last 10 years who’ve finished as a top-24 fantasy receiver while seeing fewer than 87 targets. Going back to when Ryan Tannehill started playing, Brown received a very stable 21 percent target share. That’s not elite. Not bad, but not elite. Let’s go from Week 9 through Week 17 when Brown moved to a full-time role. Brown’s target share was 24 percent in that time, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. If we project Tannehill for 480-500 pass attempts, that’d amount to 115-120 targets. It is possible Brown’s target share goes up but staying at 24 percent feels like it’s repeatable. It’s important to note that Brown averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards after the catch last year, a number that isn’t repeatable. You typically won’t see even the best of the best receivers average more than 6.0 yards after the catch. If you move Brown down to the 5.5 range, he would’ve recorded 187 fewer yards and finished as the WR28. Then you must factor in Tannehill’s ridiculous 7.7 percent touchdown rate regressing, so don’t automatically assume that Brown’s efficiency remains the same. He’s still a phenomenal talent, but he needs to get the bump in pass attempts to take the next step. If I were guaranteed 500 pass attempts out of Tannehill, I’d draft him as a low-end WR1. It’s best to be a bit cautious though and have some equity built in, making him a WR2 with serious upside.
41. Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
I won’t pretend that D.K. Metcalf started removing some of his elite target upside, but even Lockett’s efficiency went down the tube. Combining Lockett’s games under Brian Schottenheimer prior to the shin injury, he’s totaled 116 receptions for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns over a span of 25 games. That’s pretty dang good. Knowing that I’m projecting a rise in pass attempts for the Seahawks overall, Lockett should see 110-plus targets as long as he’s healthy, a number that goes very far with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. Seriously, stop talking about regression when it comes to Wilson’s receivers. First it was Doug Baldwin. Regression never really happened. Then there was Lockett. Next, it’ll be Metcalf. Lockett is perfectly fine as your WR2. He’s the safer of the Seahawks receivers because his role is locked in. If the Seahawks were to sign or bring in someone like Josh Gordon/Antonio Brown, that would affect Metcalf a lot more.
42. Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
It was a tale of two seasons for Kupp last year, as he was the No. 2 receiver in fantasy football through eight games, tallying 58 receptions for 792 yards and five touchdowns. He then fell off hard, finishing as the No. 31 receiver over the final eight games, totaling just 36 receptions for 369 yards and five touchdowns. The Rams started moving towards more 12 personnel, which includes two tight ends, which in turn leaves just two wide receivers on the field. Knowing Kupp is a slot receiver by nature, it affects him greatly. He actually played just 61 percent of the team’s snaps in Weeks 16 and 17. But I’d argue that Jared Goff needs him on the field. While targeting Kupp, Goff posted a 117.0 QB Rating. While targeting everyone else, that number is just 78.6. Sean McVay is consistently evolving as a play caller, which bodes well for Kupp, as he’ll likely be expanded to different roles moving forward. There are question marks, that much we know. However, we have still yet to see a “bad” season from Kupp in the NFL. I don’t consider him as safe as his teammate Robert Woods, but Kupp should still be considered a low-end WR2 who has more touchdown upside. I mean, he’s scored 21 receiving touchdowns in 39 career games. Woods has 25 receiving touchdowns in 100 career games. We’ve actually seen Kupp be a top-three wide receiver for half of an NFL season, and it was last year.
43. Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
The signing of Gordon was puzzling to many, as Lindsay has been a rock-solid running back, while Freeman was a third-round pick just two years ago. But still, we must react to what is happening. The last time Shurmur was an offensive coordinator was with the Vikings where Latavius Murray totaled 216 carries while Jerick McKinnon totaled 150 of them. Neither were particularly efficient, as they were both sub-4.0 yards per carry. While I don’t see Lindsay getting as many carries as McKinnon did, he’s likely to put a dent into Gordon’s value this year. Best case for Gordon is that it’s a 65/35 split, which would enable him to get 15-18 touches per game, though I believe it’ll be closer to 60/40. Knowing how talented Lindsay is, you have to err on the side of caution with Gordon, who should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 with limited upside as long as Lindsay is healthy.
44. Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
It was bad enough when we had to worry about Rashaad Penny stealing work from Carson. Now we have to worry about the free agent acquisition Carlos Hyde, as well as the fourth-round rookie DeeJay Dallas. It does help to know that Penny is likely to start the season on the PUP list (out the first six games), but why did they feel the need to snag Hyde when they had Travis Homer and Dallas on the roster? Carson has looked much better than Hyde, but do we have to worry about his hip injury that we thought required surgery? There’s been a lot made of his fumbles (he had seven of them, lost four) but his workload wasn’t affected as much as we thought it would be. There were just two games where Carson didn’t hit 15-plus carries. The only other players who can say that are Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, both players who are being drafted either in the first or second round. The positive here is that the running backs have averaged 31.7 carries/targets per game under Brian Schottenheimer the last two years. That’s a lot of work to go around. My best guess would be that Hyde mixes in and gets 6-8 carries per game, while Carson retains the workhorse role over the first six weeks. Once Penny gets back, though, it’s going to get ugly. Again, you also have to worry about Carson’s hip. It’s clear Carson shouldn’t be drafted as a top-12 running back with all the uncertainty, but what about his price tag at the end of the third round? That’s a bit too pricey for my taste, as I’d be okay pulling the trigger in the latter parts of the fourth round. James Conner is going a full round later but we don’t have to wonder whether or not he’s sharing with someone like Hyde.
45. Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
We’ve now seen the Eagles tight ends rack up a combined 155 receptions in each of the last two years. By comparison, there were just three other teams with more than 141 targets to their tight ends. The duo of Ertz and Goedert combined for a ridiculous 222 targets, which is amazing considering I went back to 2013 and there wasn’t another team who had more than 201 in one season. Now, to be fair, the 2019 season was probably an outlier considering all the injuries they had on the roster. Still, that number was at 198 targets between the two in 2018, and Goedert continues to grow into a bigger role. There are a lot of fantasy players moving Ertz down their boards, but it’s tough to say that’s right considering he had just one game with fewer than six targets in 2019. He totaled at least 54 yards in 12-of-16 games. I don’t think Ertz’s role in the offense changes with everyone healthy. I believe it impacts Goedert more, as you can clearly see his snaps rise as the injuries piled up. When you find a tight end who’s essentially locked into 130 targets if healthy, like Ertz is, you’re getting a top-five tight end, zero questions asked. Efficiency doesn’t even matter. Over the last 10 years, there have been 18 tight ends who’ve seen 128-plus targets, and they all finished top-five at year’s end. Ertz should be the third or fourth tight end off the board, depending on what you want (Andrews may offer more touchdown upside, but less safety).
46. Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
t was remarkable what McLaurin was able to do last year while playing on one of the worst teams in football. The disappointing part was that even though he saw 37.1 percent of his team’s air yards (sixth in the NFL), he finished with just 93 targets. Knowing it’s unlikely we see a big increase in pass attempts, it’s hard for him to see an air yards number that is much higher. The reason we can be semi-optimistic with his targets is due to the lack of options around him. Kelvin Harmon and Paul Richardson are gone, along with the 86 targets they saw last year. In comes rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden, and veteran Dontrelle Inman, who was recently signed off the street. If we look at offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s offense last year, you’ll see it was very top-heavy when it came to the wide receivers, as D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel both hit 106-plus targets. I can’t say there’s anyone else on this Washington receiver depth chart that deserves more than 75 targets. This could be very similar to A.J. Brown, where we’re looking at a player who might get a 25 percent target share in his offense, even if it is a low volume one. The difference is that McLaurin’s quarterback hasn’t ever posted all-time great numbers, and it’s unreasonable to expect that. Still, McLaurin can likely live up to low-end WR2 expectations, though getting him as your WR3 is the ideal scenario.
47. D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
Remember when most people said Metcalf was “raw” and could only run the go-route? Or how about he had no agility because his three-cone drill was bad? Or how about that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, and Andy Isabella went before him? Yeah, me too. Despite having a knee scope done during the last preseason, Metcalf managed to make it back for Week 1 where he racked up 89 yards on six targets. He wound up tallying nine games with more than 60 yards, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. That doesn’t even count his playoff game against the Eagles where he broke the rookie record for receiving yards (160) in a playoff game. There was progression in his routes as the year went on, and he’s been working out with Russell Wilson at his house this offseason. At 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds, the ceiling is endless with Metcalf, who has true WR1 potential as soon as this year. The biggest concern is that the Seahawks were looking into Antonio Brown, which tells me they may add another perimeter wide receiver. It would directly impact his target upside if that were to happen, and not as much Tyler Lockett. Because of that, Lockett is the safer pick this year, though it’s Metcalf who has the higher ceiling.
48. Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
The trio of tight ends in Baltimore accounted for a massive 40.2 percent target share last year, which easily led the league. Just one other team (Eagles) had their tight ends see over a 30.0 percent target share. Hayden Hurst is gone, which shifts those targets to the duo of Andrews and Boyle. While I anticipate some of them moving to the wide receivers, it’s not a bad thing for Andrews supporters. I think many have forgotten just how hard it is for young tight ends to produce elite numbers, yet Andrews posted 852 yards and 10 touchdowns in his sophomore season on a team that threw the ball just 440 times. He’s very good. With a slight bump in pass attempts for the team overall combined with the exit of Hurst, and we could see Andrews reach 120 targets this season. My issue with Andrews is that he’s been a bit more inconsistent than the likes of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, so it takes a bit of projecting to see him reach that tier. Andrews played just 46 snaps per game in 2019, while those two averaged 60 snaps. For me, Andrews is in the tier directly behind them alongside Zach Ertz. If you can get him in the late-fourth or early-fifth round, I’m good with that. If you take him earlier, you’re have to project 120 targets.
49. D.J. Chark (WR – JAC)
There were flashes of what could be an alpha wide receiver in Chark last year, but there were also times where he disappeared. For example, he had six games of 15-plus fantasy points, but he also had eight games with less than nine fantasy points. Is it reasonable for him to grow as a player? Yes. Is there now a bit more competition for targets on the roster? Yes. With the shortened offseason, it will be difficult to learn a new playbook, especially for rookies like second-round pick Laviska Shenault. Because of that, Gardner Minshew will likely be looking Chark’s way a lot. With a schedule that starts with the Colts, Titans, Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, and Lions, Chark should have a monster first half of the fantasy season. There are much tougher matchups as the season goes on, however, but drafting Chark as a low-end WR2 with upside in the fifth round makes sense. But again, you may want to look at the possibility of trading him during his bye in Week 7.
50. David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
I did a study this offseason that went through which players should’ve scored the most fantasy points in 2019 (read it here). Of the 14 running backs who were expected to score the most, 13 of them finished in the top 14. That’s about as predictable as it gets. Montgomery was No. 15 on that list, and keep in mind that he didn’t start right away. The Bears did nothing this offseason that will take away his role in the offense. The offensive line was a problem in 2019 and it’s going to be a problem in 2020, so Montgomery is going to rely on Matt Nagy to create some room for him. There was just one running back in the league who received a higher percentage of his team’s carries inside the five-yard-line last year (Leonard Fournette), so if the offense takes a slight step forward, Montgomery is a candidate for 10 touchdowns. If you want to snag wide receivers early in your draft, Montgomery makes for a sturdy RB2 in fantasy, even if he’s not a sexy pick.
51. Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Prescott never finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks and is about to play in the same system that just netted him the QB2 finish. Did I mention he also had CeeDee Lamb added to his arsenal? And do you remember all those years we drafted Aaron Rodgers as the top quarterback? That was with Mike McCarthy as his head coach (Prescott’s new coach). If you’re on the clock and choosing between Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson, I’m choosing Prescott. There’s the least number of variables with him, though Wilson is close. I’ll leave you with this: Since Amari Cooper joined the team, Prescott has completed 616-of-916 passes (67.2 percent) for 7,369 yards (8.04 yards per attempt), 44 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. That’s over a span of 25 games. He’s also rushed for 346 yards and seven touchdowns.
52. David Johnson (RB – HOU)
When many heard David Johnson was being traded to the Texans, we heard “jokes” that it was for DeAndre Hopkins. Well… you know how that ended. The Texans traded a lot for Johnson, which really doesn’t make much sense to me, and it’s not because I think he’s terrible or anything, but because he doesn’t fit what the Texans do on offense. They have traditionally given their running backs plenty of carries with minimal targets. Johnson hasn’t topped 3.7 yards per carry since back in 2016 and isn’t a great in-between the tackles runner. His best attribute is his receiving, and the Texans have not targeted their running backs more than 89 times in each of the last four years. We still have the same head coach and coordinator, so it’s not a change in offensive philosophy. We haven’t even talked about how Johnson looked towards the end of last year, as he looked like someone who was as stiff as a board and was closer to retirement than he was Pro Bowl. I’m just concerned about how he fits in this offense, but he’s still going to be given 16-plus touches a week, giving him value in fantasy. He’s not a high-upside guy, but if you’re looking for a low-end RB2, Johnson’s a guy who should deliver.
53. A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
I get it, he hasn’t been healthy the last two years. However, when he’s been on the field, Green has been a legitimate superstar. Since 2000, here’s the list of wide receivers who’ve posted WR2 or better type numbers at a higher percentage than Green: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham. That’s the end of the list. He’s played his entire career with Andy Dalton. Now moving to Joe Burrow, the quality of the targets should improve. You could argue that Green didn’t have a chance to work with Burrow this offseason, but that’s the case with all of Burrow’s new group of pass catchers. There is legitimate top-10 upside with Green, which is extremely hard to find where he’s being drafted. There’s risk, but with where he’s being drafted, it’s worth it.
54. DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
It’s about time, right? I remember last year on the podcast talking about Parker, saying there’s a clear avenue for him to see 100-plus targets and that if Fitzpatrick was starting, I wanted him on my roster. Here we are 128 targets and a No. 7 wide receiver finish later. Fun fact: Parker and Michael Thomas were the only two receivers who posted at least 55 yards in 13 games last year. You were able to get Parker outside the top 60 wide receivers last year, something that isn’t happening this time around. His current draft position is right around WR20-22, so you’re receiving a discount from last year’s production, and rightfully so. Preston Williams is back from his ACL injury, which isn’t great news for Parker, who was the No. 34 wide receiver through nine weeks with Williams in the lineup. That was really solid for him considering where he was drafted, but once Williams left, Parker exploded and finished as the No. 2 wide receiver the remainder of the season. Part of the reason that happened was due to Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s willingness to target him relentlessly, as he averaged 9.5 targets per game over that span. To be fair, Williams is coming back, but both Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out of the season, clearing up 110 targets from last year. Knowing Fitzpatrick is starting the season under center helps me feel more confident in Parker, but there’s certainly hesitation in drafting him this year as the Dolphins defense is going to be much better, which will result in fewer pass attempts, and that they’ll be moving to a rookie quarterback at some point. I think he’s best viewed as a stable WR3 who comes with top-12 upside. If I knew Fitzpatrick would start all year, he’d be a WR2.
55. Darren Waller (TE – LV)
I really didn’t want to put Witten’s name in this paragraph but did for those who didn’t know he was on the team. This is Waller’s role, and apparently Witten was brought on to be a “leader” in the locker room, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him have a Frank Gore-like effect and take away a few targets from Waller. The last three teams that Gruden has coached, each one has watched the tight ends accumulate at least 118 targets, with a massive total of 142 targets last year. I’d say it’s unlikely Waller sees the 117 targets he did in 2019, especially with the additions they’ve made at wide receiver, as well as the supposed increase in targets for Josh Jacobs. Still, we know after seeing Jared Cook see 101 targets in 2018 and Waller 117 targets in 2019 that this offense moves through the tight end quite a bit. Even lowering Waller to the 100-target mark, he’s worthy of a top-five tight end selection, as his touchdown total of three last year was somewhat fluky when you compare it to his 1,145 yards. Just so you know, his teammate Foster Moreau scored five touchdowns last year on just 25 targets and 174 yards, so the regression in targets can be made up in touchdowns. Waller is likely to lose some of his weekly floor, which was arguably the best among tight ends (only tight end who didn’t have a single game with less than 7.0 PPR points), he’s still a solid pick in the late-fifth, early-sixth round.
56. Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
What a year for Sutton in 2019, eh? He didn’t finish as high as some thought (WR19), but it was a miracle he finished there if you were to go back and watch some of the passes he came down with. His 125 targets were the 15th most among wide receivers, though it’s hard to see that continuing. He had zero competition for targets last year, which is why he saw over 50 percent of the ones that went to wide receivers. He’ll now have to contend with first-round pick Jerry Jeudy, who’s the most polished receiver who’s come out in the last five years, and second-round pick KJ Hamler in the starting lineup. That’s not to mention Melvin Gordon, who’s an established pass-catcher out of the backfield. Sutton is clearly a star, but this offense is now littered with talented pass catchers. There were just two games all last year Sutton saw fewer than seven targets, but I think that number goes up this year. He was a middling WR2 last year with those high target totals, yet he’s being drafted essentially where he finished last year, and that’s despite the improved talent around him. If Sutton wants to finish better than a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, he’s going to need double-digit touchdowns, and that’s just not something I can predict given the talent around him.
57. Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
Did you know Allen hasn’t topped six touchdowns in any of the last six seasons? That’s despite Philip Rivers throwing at least 28 touchdowns in five of them. He’s a phenomenal route runner, but not the go-up-and-get-it receiver you’ll fall in love with in the red zone. The move to Tyrod Taylor is likely going to be a tough one for Allen, as Taylor will lack pass attempts in comparison to Rivers. Even if we were to say the Chargers threw the ball 500 times (Taylor’s career-high is 437 attempts), that’s still a massive decrease from the 597 times they threw the ball in 2019. Taking away 97-plus targets will be felt throughout the depth chart, especially when you don’t score a lot of touchdowns. It does help that the Chargers receiving corps is very top heavy with Allen and Mike Williams, though. Still, it’s likely there’ll be less than 250 targets between the Chargers receivers, so Allen isn’t getting close to the 149 targets he got in 2019. Realistically, he’s likely to be in the 110-120 target range. That’s still enough for low-end WR2/high-end WR3 numbers, but don’t expect the same Allen whose been relied upon as a borderline WR1 anymore.
58. Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
After finishing as the WR17 in 2018 and then the WR23 in 2019, Boyd’s being disrespected in fantasy drafts, coming off the board outside the top 30 wide receivers. Sure, A.J. Green is back in the lineup, but drafters aren’t high on him, either. Oddly enough, Boyd was a better fantasy asset with Green in the lineup in 2018. Boyd is 25 years old, it’s surely not his age. Do people really think that Joe Burrow will be a downgrade from Andy Dalton? That can’t be it. Looking at Burrow at LSU, his top receiver (stat-wise) was Justin Jefferson, who put up a stupid 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jefferson was his slot receiver. While it’s a different offense, we know Boyd saw 147 targets in the first year of Zac Taylor’s offense. He’s the ideal WR3 who’s already proven to be better than that, and if the public is right on Green being “done”, then Boyd would be a mega-hit in fantasy.
59. Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
The knock on Wilson has forever been “he doesn’t throw the ball enough!” That argument only holds so much water, as Wilson has now finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in four of the last six seasons. Let me tell you… if Wilson attempted 600 pass attempts, he’d under consideration as the first quarterback off the board. Despite topping out at 553 attempts, Wilson has thrown at least 31 touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. There’s been just one season he’s averaged less than 7.7 yards per attempt. He’s hit a 6.0 percent touchdown percentage in 6-of-8 career seasons. He’s the good stuff. Can we anticipate more pass attempts? Sure we can. The first year under Brian Schottenheimer they threw the ball just 427 times. The second year (2019), that number went up to 516 attempts. Why did that happen? Not because the run game wasn’t effective. It certainly was. It’s because the Seahawks defense has trended in the wrong direction, which bodes well for Wilson’s pass attempts. They did just trade for Jamal Adams, which will certainly help matters, but their front seven doesn’t generate a whole lot of pressure. If they lose Jadeveon Clowney, it only gets worse, but I’d consider 516 attempts the floor for Wilson in 2020. When you add in the growth/chemistry between Wilson and D.K. Metcalf, the ceiling continues to grow. Don’t forget that Metcalf was a rookie last year, while Tyler Lockett dealt with injuries over the second half of the season. I can’t say Wilson gets to 600 pass attempts, but we don’t need him to in order to produce elite numbers, as we’ve seen. Provided he’s healthy, his floor is likely a top-six quarterback, something not many can say.
60. Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU)
After finishing as the No. 4 quarterback in back-to-back seasons, many are starting to slide Watson down draft boards due to the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. We’ve never seen Watson without Hopkins, which certainly does raise some questions, but it also could provide an outlet for even more rushing yards for him. Watson maneuvers the pocket extremely well and buys himself time to find open receivers. Now without his safety blanket in Hopkins, we could see his rushing ceiling go up. Did you know he rushed for at least 32 yards in 9-of-15 games last year but never topped 47 rushing yards? That’s odd, to say the least. The Texans defense will be as bad as it’s ever been with Watson under center, which should mean even more dropbacks. The reason I’m still okay drafting Watson as a top-six quarterback: He’s only thrown 26 touchdown passes in each of the last two years and has still been a top-12 type quarterback in 63.2 percent of his career games, which is the second-highest rate since 2000, behind only Patrick Mahomes. For context, there were just seven quarterbacks who topped 50 percent last year alone. Watson may not have the passing ceiling without Hopkins, but I’m expecting his rushing totals to make up for some of that, leaving him in the top-six quarterbacks.
61. Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
There’s a realistic scenario where Murray is the QB1 at the end of the season, though I can’t say we should expect it. In the first year of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, he averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt. While it was his rookie season, the Cardinals also had the element of surprise, in that no one had existing tape on Kingsbury’s offense. Remember how ridiculous the Rams were in their first season under Sean McVay? Adding DeAndre Hopkins surely helps his chances, though. Did you know there were six games that Murray didn’t throw a touchdown last year? Based on where his pass attempts and rushing attempts took place, Murray should’ve scored the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last year. He posted QB1-type numbers just 37.5 percent of the time, which is obviously not ideal, though natural progression in his career should improve efficiency. If you’re looking for upside, he’s got it. He belongs in the same tier as guys like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson, but I’d say he belongs at the end of it. The difference between him and those guys? They’ve proved to be top-three fantasy quarterbacks already. You shouldn’t be paying for his ceiling.
62. Mark Ingram II (RB – BAL)
Sure, Ingram finished as the No. 8 running back in half PPR formats last year, but based on opportunity, he ranked as the No. 23 running back. Another player who’s due for regression. Did you know there was just one game last year where Ingram topped 16 carries? Now you add in someone like J.K. Dobbins – who the Ravens had a first-round grade on – into this timeshare? Ingram will be 31 years old in December and now has over 1,500 carries on his frame in the NFL alone. Relying on him for RB2 production would be a mistake. He’s more of a flex-type option who will be a bit touchdown reliant while seeing 12-14 touches per game.
63. Raheem Mostert (RB – SF)
I’m fairly certain that predicting Kyle Shanahan’s running back timeshare is more difficult than predicting the stock market. It stinks because it’s a very efficient system, and one that racked up a league-high 424 carries for the running backs. They were the only team in the league whose running backs rushed for over 2,000 yards. They also led the league with 19 rushing touchdowns. So, why is it that no running back on this team is being drafted as a top-24 option? There were just four instances a running back totaled more than 15 carries last year. There were just six instances in 2018. Of those 10 instances over the last two years, there were five different running backs who hit that mark. Crazy, right? But is there something to Mostert? During the playoff run he totaled 53 carries, 336 yards, and five touchdowns in three games. He saw just three targets in those games, which is brutal for his floor, but we’re now sitting at eight straight games where Mostert has totaled at least 10 carries and 53 rushing yards. That may not seem like much, but it’s a step in the right direction, as is the fact that the 49ers gave in to his demands. He requested a trade if they didn’t re-work his contract, so they added an additional $1.9 million to his salary this year. He’s clearly a big part of their run game moving forward. His current ADP of RB25 is fair. There’s some risk, sure, but you must factor in the potential that he carries the ball 15 times per game and is the primary goal-line back. He has RB1 upside if Shanahan adjusts his ways.
64. Ronald Jones II (RB – TB)
There was a lot of guessing going on throughout the offseason on who would be the starting running back, but Bruce Arians quieted those questions in early August when he said flat out, “RoJo is the main guy; he’ll carry the load,” without hesitation. “All of those other guys are fighting for roles – [for] who goes in second when he gets tired, maybe who is the third-down guy. But they’re all fighting for a role and special teams will have a lot to do with that.” That’s about as clear as it gets. Even LeSean McCoy said he’s just there to mentor Jones and the young running backs. Jones was the only running back on the roster last year to average more than 3.3 yards per carry (he averaged 4.2), and though Arians didn’t remain consistent with the touches he’d give, we did see Jones finish the year strong, totaling 183 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, and then chipping in with another five receptions for 42 yards over the final two games. It seems like it’s a popular thing to rip on Jones for him being a “bad receiver,” but I’m not even sure where that comes from. Yards per route run is often a good measuring stick of future success. There were 64 running backs who ran at least 100 routes in 2019. The top five in Yards per route run were: Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Washington, Dalvin Cook, James White, and … Ronald Jones. Stop saying he’s a bad receiver. Some will say pass blocking is an issue. Again, we’re talking about limited samples, but Jones pass blocked on just 51 snaps last year, allowing two hits and one sack. Knowing how confidently Arians sounds when dubbing Jones as the lead back, he belongs in the RB3 conversation with top-15 upside in what should be a high-scoring offense.
65. Devin Singletary (RB – BUF)
Why does everyone automatically assume that Singletary is a better running back than rookie Zack Moss? They have different roles on this team, but the Bills clearly feel just as good about Moss as they did about Singletary, as both were third-round picks. Singletary played well his rookie year but didn’t get touches when it mattered most. He saw just two carries inside the five-yard-line all season. GM Brandon Beane already said that Moss will take over the Frank Gore role in the offense, which means getting those valuable goal-line touches. Singletary didn’t catch a whole lot of passes in college (just six receptions in 12 games his final year), and some wondered why, but after seeing him average just 4.73 yards per target in 2019, we might be seeing why. Knowing he’s third in line for red zone touches behind Josh Allen and Moss, it’s tough to find the upside with Singletary without injury. Remember Kenyan Drake in Miami? That’s kind of how I view Singletary’s role in Buffalo, only less efficient as a receiver. If Moss and Allen are healthy, I wouldn’t want to rely on anything more than flex-type production out of Singletary.
66. D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
This is a tough backfield to crack without a preseason, as the Lions have a solid running back in Johnson, but that didn’t stop them from drafting Swift at the top of the second round. Johnson has had difficulty staying healthy, as he’s played just 18 games over his first two seasons, which is likely the reason they pounced on Swift, who is a true three-down back. This backfield produced 425 total touches last year, which amounts to 26.6 per game. That’s not a great number for a backfield that’s projected to be somewhat of a timeshare. Let’s pretend that Johnson gets 8-10 touches per game, and then the combination of Bo Scarbrough and Ty Johnson get 2-4 touches per game. Suddenly, we’re looking at 12-16 touches per game for Swift, which is a realistic scenario. He’d be leading the timeshare but could be relied upon as no more than an RB2/3. That’s where he’d be without an injury to Johnson. Worst case scenario is that Johnson remains healthy and they’re a hot-hand committee that you’ll have a tough time predicting from week-to-week. If you get Swift as a middling RB3, that’s fine, but his upside in this offense doesn’t justify anything higher.
67. Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Going from Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen isn’t going to be a highlight of Diggs’ career, as Cousins has continually been one of the better deep-ball passers, while Allen was among the worst in 2019. Diggs actually led the league in yardage on passes that traveled over 20 yards in the air last year. The Bills are still a run-first team that has a top-tier defense, so it’s hard to expect a big jump in pass attempts. They targeted their wide receivers 310 times last year, which was a lot for a team that threw the ball just 513 times. The 60.4 percent target share was the fourth-highest mark in the league. So, again, it’s tough to say there will be more to go around. Knowing that John Brown was fantastic last year (115 targets), as was Cole Beasley (104 targets), it’s tough to take targets away from them, but we have to start taking them from someone because you don’t trade for someone like Diggs and not target him. Still, giving him even 115 targets might be too generous, as it’d completely crush the value of Brown, who already has experience with the quarterback/offense. Realistically, I have Diggs down for 111 targets in my projections. When tied to Allen’s inconsistencies, that is a WR3 in fantasy who can get into WR2 territory at year’s end, similarly to the way Brown did last year. Diggs is probably a top-eight wide receiver in the league, but you need to targets to move up the boards in fantasy football. I’d be happy landing him as my WR3, but that’s about it.
68. Will Fuller (WR – HOU)
Even with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, Fuller has totaled 116 targets in 18 games over the last two years (6.4 per game), which is more than enough to do damage, especially when you’ve averaged 14.3 yards per reception over your career. Fuller’s volume will be there when he’s in the lineup, as Hopkins’ 150-plus targets have to go somewhere, and Fuller is the only one returning to the starting lineup who has any familiarity with Deshaun Watson. You must understand the nature of his game before drafting him though. He’s finished with fewer than 8.0 PPR points in 20-of-42 career games. He’s also finished with more than 20.0 PPR points in nine games. He’s been the definition of a boom-or-bust receiver, and one who’s been hurt a lot (missed 22 games over four years). Still, with Hopkins gone, Fuller should see a bump in targets and become a bit more stable. If he’s healthy, you should have zero issue plugging him in as your WR3 with top-10 upside. You’re getting a discount due to his health concerns.
69. Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
Since coming into the league, Engram has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. Don’t believe me? I’ve tracked all tight ends since the start of the 2000 season and Engram has posted TE1-type numbers in 58.8 percent of his games. The only players with higher percentages over that time are Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and George Kittle. Engram hasn’t had the upside of someone like Jimmy Graham or Tony Gonzalez, but he’s been reliable. Now in an offense with more weapons than ever, will that continue? Even with most of them on the field last year, there was just one game where he saw less than seven targets (he still saw five). Do you know how many tight ends averaged more than even 6.5 targets last year? Six. Engram averaged 8.5 targets, so even if we knocked off a full 1.5 targets per game, he’d still be in elite territory. Injuries have added up, though, and he’s missed 13 games over the last two years, which is why he doesn’t belong in the elite conversation. You need a discount to take players like him. Fortunately, you’re getting that, as he’s the eighth tight end to come off draft boards in the seventh round. I have him as my TE6, though it’s probably unlikely he breaks into the top-three tight ends with all the mouths they have to feed in New York.
70. Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
With Hunt, you’re getting a two-for-one. He’s someone who should offer flex value most weeks with around 6-8 carries and 3-4 targets but would be a plug-and-play RB1 if Chubb missed any time. In a season with so many question marks, that is worth more than most realize. Snagging Hunt as a high-end RB3 makes plenty of sense.
71. Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)
Did you know there have been just three wide receivers who’ve finished as a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last five years? Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Landry. The way he got there in 2019 wasn’t ideal (posted WR2 or better numbers just 31.3 percent of the time), but it was a horrendous offense. The issue now is that he’s coming off hip surgery this offseason. While it seems like his recovery has gone well, that could be something to hold him back from being as consistent as he’s been the last few years in Cleveland. Another hurdle is the limited targets that may be available in Stefanski’s offense. The Vikings receivers combined for just 201 targets last year, and it would appear the Browns are trying to recreate that offense with both Austin Hooper and David Njoku in 2TE sets, while using the run game heavily. There’s been just two times in Landry’s career where he’s finished with more than 7.0 yards per target, and he’s scored more than six touchdowns just once. If he’s cut down anywhere close to the 100-110-target mark, which seems very likely, it’s really going to hurt his fantasy impact. Because of that, he’s a WR3, and one who might be a bit dicier than in past years.
72. Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL)
When projecting Matt Ryan for somewhere in the neighborhood of 620-plus pass attempts, you need to disburse them somewhere. The Falcons didn’t even make an offer to Austin Hooper but decided to spend a second-round pick to acquire Hurst from the Ravens. It’s clear they view him as someone who can step right into Hooper’s role. It may take some time for Hurst to get acclimated to the new offense with a shortened offseason, but Hooper’s role was massive last year. He totaled 97 targets in just 13 games, which was a pace of 119 targets on a full 16-game season. Did you know that of the 116 tight ends who’ve seen more than 85 targets the last 10 years, that 97 of them finished as top-12 tight ends? That’s an 83.6 percent success rate and it seems highly likely that Hurst is going to hit that. Move that number up to 90 targets and it’s a 92.4 percent success rate. One of my bold predictions this year is that Hurst finishes as a top-five fantasy tight end. Don’t think he was bad because he was playing behind Mark Andrews, one of the best tight ends in the league.
73. T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND)
As a soon-to-be 31-year-old coming off an injury-plagued season and playing with a new quarterback, it’s not a good look to show up to camp with a non-football hamstring injury. There will be no preseason game action for him to build any chemistry with his new quarterback, so training camp was important. Hilton has never been a touchdown guy, as his career high is capped out at seven touchdowns. So, he’s reliant upon targets more than someone like D.K. Metcalf, who can score 10 touchdowns. Not only do we have to worry about Hilton’s health and age, but we also have to worry about his quarterback’s. Philip Rivers was not good last year and hasn’t traditionally thrown to guys like Hilton who are undersized and play on the perimeter. With so many variables and lack of true upside, I’m okay fading Hilton, especially at his current cost. If you’re able to land him as a backend WR3, I’m okay with the risk/reward, as there aren’t too many safe options in that range.
74. Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
Through 10 weeks last season, Higbee never topped 64 percent of the snaps played. His percentages from Week 11 forward were: 76, 70, 91, 97, 86, 89, and 96. You know where his production came from now? It should come as no shock that his increase in snaps came when Everett was out of the lineup (missed four full games and parts of others). Still, how do you take a guy who posted 84-plus yards in five straight games off the field? Did you know that he’s the only tight end to ever do that? It didn’t hurt that he played the Cardinals twice and Seahawks during that stretch, as they were the two worst teams in the league against the tight end position. We also can’t forget that Higbee didn’t top 48 yards in 56 of his first 58 games, and that they drafted Everett in the second round with him on the roster. But again, how do you take him off the field after those performances? If we knew he’d be playing 80-plus percent of the snaps, he’d be drafted as a top-five tight end, but we don’t know that for sure. His ADP of TE8 feels like it has the risk built into it, so he’s fine to select in that range, as he has top-five upside.
75. Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
There have been just nine wide receivers who’ve finished as a top-24 receiver in at least four of the last five years. Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, and… Cooks. He’s done that with three different quarterbacks, and it’s hard to say Deshaun Watson is a downgrade. The lack of offseason might prove to be a lot for the chemistry between the two, but knowing Cooks has transitioned well in the past, it shouldn’t take too long. Concussions, on the other hand, are a big worrisome point. He only missed two games due to concussions in 2019, but they’re starting to add up. It also affected his performance (clearly) in a big way, as he never topped 46 yards in the six games following the injury. There’s going to be one of Will Fuller or Cooks who shines as a top-30 receiver with top-20 upside, yet neither are being drafted there. Knowing Cooks has been in this situation before, he gets a vote of confidence. If you land him as your WR4, you should be psyched. If Fuller misses any time, he’d be a must-play WR2 nearly every week.
76. Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
Cohen is one of the best values in fantasy drafts right now, as many have attached to the “Bears suck” mentality. This is the same running back in the same offense who finished as the RB13 in 2018 and then RB37 in 2019, which was the worst possible scenario, as the offense struggled to move the ball and Cohen failed to break off any long runs. Seriously, he had one run of more than 15 yards. In 2018, he ripped off nine of those runs for 197 yards. There’s a middle ground in his performances, and he will be a useful RB3/flex most weeks who’ll give you some big RB1/RB2 performances when those big plays happen, especially in PPR formats.
77. Matt Ryan (QB – ATL)
His finishes over the last four years are (most recent first): QB11, QB2, QB15, QB2. So, are we supposed to expect another QB2 finish this year? The bad news is that Ryan offers nothing on the ground. The good news is that he’s played under Dirk Koetter in four separate seasons and has finished top-8 in pass attempts in each of them. It also doesn’t hurt throwing to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and now Todd Gurley and Hayden Hurst. Knowing there isn’t any running back depth behind the trending-downward Gurley, it seems more likely than ever that Ryan chucks the ball up 620-plus times. Heck, even with Gurley, it’s not like they’re having him tote the ball 20-plus times per week. Ryan’s weekly floor won’t be as high as some of the top-six quarterbacks considering his lack of mobility, but Ryan is certainly in the next tier. The best part is that you get him at a discount because he’s not the “sexy” pick that someone like Josh Allen is. He’s my No. 7 quarterback and I feel pretty good about that.
78. Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
I remember during draft prep season, everyone and their grandmother was saying that Akers struggled at Florida State due to the poor offensive line play. Then he was drafted by the Rams in the second round. For whatever reason, nobody talked about Akers falling behind what is likely a bottom-five offensive line. His ADP was around RB24 earlier in the offseason, though it’s fallen to the RB30 range after Sean McVay came forward and said it’ll be much more of a timeshare in 2020. Here’s a quote from July: “I think it’ll just naturally work itself out. I think if you look at that success San Fran had last year with that running back-by-committee approach. What I thought Kyle Shanahan and their players did a great job of is, ‘Hey, we’re going to have an open-mind approach, we’re going to be committed to trying to have some balance and then we’ll go with the hot hand or whoever really expresses himself as deserving of the carries.” That’s the last thing you want to hear. Don’t forget they traded up to draft Darrell Henderson last year in the third round, too. The bottom line is that no running back averaged more than 3.8 yards per carry behind this offensive line in 2019. Akers is the one they drafted in the second round this year, so you must assume they want him to win the job, but to expect more than 10-14 touches per game to start the year would be a mistake. Under McVay, the Rams running backs have averaged 413.7 touches per year, or 25.9 per game. That’s a far cry from the 31.3 that 49ers running backs averaged last year. If this is a timeshare, it’s going to be messy, as there aren’t enough touches to go around. Akers should be drafted as nothing more than a RB3/flex-type option who you’re hoping shines with no offseason. That’s tough for a rookie behind this offensive line.
79. Julian Edelman (WR – NE)
Did you realize Edelman has seen 793 targets over his last 83 games? That’s a pace of 152.9 targets per season. But what happens when your whole world is flipped upside down? Losing Tom Brady is going to affect Edelman more than anyone, as those two had a connection and were continually on the same page. The Patriots also threw the ball 620 times last year, a number they won’t even come close to in 2020. It’s a different offense, yes, but did you know Cam Newton has never thrown more than 517 pass attempts in a single season? He’s also failed to throw for more than 3,869 yards since his rookie year and has thrown more than 24 touchdowns just once. Meanwhile, Edelman has never averaged more than 7.9 yards per target. What does that mean? Even if he were to get 125 targets, his career-best wouldn’t have totaled 1,000 yards. There’s a lot of issues and question marks surrounding Edelman, and we haven’t even discussed him turning 34 years old this offseason. He’s likely to post low-upside WR3 numbers when on the field, but that’s been a chore in itself, as he’s played all 16 games just three times over his 11 years in the league. If you take the late-WR approach in drafts, it’s not the worst thing to have Edelman as your WR3, but ideally, he’s your WR4 with all the question marks and lack of upside.
80. Jordan Howard (RB – MIA)
After snagging Howard in free agency and signing him to a two-year deal, many thought the Dolphins would select a running back with one of their five picks in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. They didn’t, though. Instead, they traded a fifth-round pick to the 49ers for Matt Breida. Howard has been a steady producer throughout his career to this point, but there’s an important part of this equation that you need to understand. Howard played behind the Bears offensive line that was ranked a consensus top-10 unit when he was there, and then went to an Eagles offensive line that was consensus ranked as a top-three unit. The Dolphins are not anywhere near that territory. Their running backs combined to average 2.96 yards per carry last year, which was dead last in the league. No other team averaged less than 3.29 yards per carry. Now to be fair, they did add Austin Jackson in the first round, Robert Hunt in the second, Solomon Kindley in the fourth, as well as Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency. That’s all great, but with no offseason and potentially five new offensive linemen (three rookies) and a new running back, it’s unlikely there’ll be any continuity. One positive is that new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has had each of his last six teams finish top-14 in yards per carry, so maybe there’s something to his scheme. Knowing Howard offers little-to-nothing in the passing game, it’s tough to see much upside on a team that averaged just 18.3 points per game. He’ll get the goal-line carries, making him a RB3/flex option most weeks, but don’t draft him hoping/expecting a top-20 finish or anything.
81. Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)
Knowing how talented Lindsay is, you have to err on the side of caution with Melvin Gordon, who should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 with limited upside as long as Lindsay is healthy. Lindsay is not someone who’ll offer RB3/flex value every week, but he should be close. It’s clear the Broncos are done with Royce Freeman, so if something were to happen to Gordon and he missed time, Lindsay would be a borderline RB1. Treat him as a high-end RB4 in drafts and you’ll be happy.
82. Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
It’s funny how I’ve become someone who’s viewed as a “Gallup hater” in some circles. Let it be known that Gallup was one of my favorite receiver prospects in the 2018 draft class (here’s the scouting profile I did). But guys, he’s not better than Amari Cooper. It’s clear that Gallup benefits from Cooper’s presence in the lineup and has fit into his field-stretching role rather nicely. Now, the question becomes: How much does CeeDee Lamb affect Gallup’s target share? When Lamb was first drafted, I was concerned, but after sitting down and going through projections, I was still able to find 100-105 targets for him in the offense, which should net him a WR3 finish in fantasy. There are some risks taking him inside the top-30 because you’re taking on some of the risk that Lamb doesn’t eat into his target share a bit more, though it’s a smaller risk knowing we’ve had a shortened offseason with no preseason action. I have Gallup as a back-end WR3 in fantasy with upside for a bit more if Lamb takes time to develop, which is not out of question. If Cooper missed time, Gallup would be my favorite receiver in the offense and a high-end WR2 start most weeks.
83. Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
When the Steelers drafted Johnson in the third round in 2019, many did a double take, but once he got on the field, he proved worthy. The Steelers liked him so much, he saw a very-high 18.0 percent target share in his rookie season. It didn’t hurt that JuJu Smith-Schuster was hurt and missing some time, but it highlights how much they believe in him. He’ll play the “Antonio Brown role” in the offense moving forward while Smith-Schuster goes back to the slot. The downside is that Johnson will then see the opposing No. 1 cornerback, as they don’t go into the slot very often. Still, throughout Ben Roethlisberger‘s long 15-year career (excluding 2019), he’s supported two top-40 wide receivers in 12 of them, with 11 of them supporting two top-32 receivers. There is certainly risk with Roethlisberger’s elbow, but at WR43 (his current ADP), you’re getting a slight discount. I mean, even with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center, he finished as the WR43 his rookie season. Snagging him as your WR4 would be a good idea, as I believe he’ll be a WR3 more often than not.
84. Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)
How did we get here? Rodgers was the poster child for consistency in fantasy football. He may not have had the Lamar Jackson upside, but you knew he would finish as a top-five quarterback as long as he was healthy. Last year was the first time he finished worse than the No. 7 quarterback while playing at least 10 games. His QB9 finish was worse than it appears at first sight. Rodgers actually finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10-of-16 games. There were four games that essentially carried him through the season, and those games were against the Raiders, Giants, Chiefs, and Eagles. Three of those were among the worst in football. Fortunately, Rodgers has a semi-decent schedule in 2020, as he’ll play the Lions twice, Panthers, Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars defenses during the fantasy season. Was it the new offense he was learning? Was it the lack of weapons to throw to? Neither has changed, so it’s tough to say he’ll return to the Rodgers we all know and love as fantasy players, but his cost doesn’t reflect that it’s even a possibility, as he’s being drafted outside the top-10 quarterbacks. If you’re one of those fantasy owners who refuses to spend up at quarterback, taking a shot on Rodgers in the eighth or ninth round would make plenty of sense. He’s 36 years old and has seven top-two finishes under his belt.
85. Hunter Henry (TE – LAC)
Knowing how little the Chargers use their receivers behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, you’d think you’d get excited about Henry, but it’s tough to say he’ll get anywhere close to hitting value as the sixth tight end off the board. Henry has still yet to top 76 targets in a season, and that’s despite Philip Rivers throwing the ball near 600 times each season. Henry has missed time, which hasn’t helped, but still, you want very little risk when spending a 5th/6th round pick on a tight end. The Chargers will lose some volume in the passing game year and will almost certainly have less touchdowns to be distributed in the passing game. If there’s one positive from Tyrod Taylor taking over, it’s that Charles Clay averaged 79.3 targets, 52.3 receptions, 546 yards, and 3.0 touchdowns during Taylor’s starter years in Buffalo. Henry is likely a better player than Clay was, but again, those numbers don’t come close to hitting top-six tight end territory. Henry can finish as a TE1, but you shouldn’t be spending a pick anywhere close to where he’s being drafted.
86. Latavius Murray (RB – NO)
Murray is one of my favorite picks to place on your bench. In fact, I’ve selected him two rounds ahead of his 10th round ADP because not only does he have elite handcuff upside (he was the RB1 while Kamara was out last year), but he also has weekly flex appeal if the team gets back to their pass-to-run ratio of 2017-2018. Did you know Murray had 23 carries in the red zone compared to 26 for Kamara? Or that he they both had 14 carries inside the 10-yard line? Don’t forget that Mark Ingram and Kamara BOTH finished as top-six running backs back in 2017.
87. Marvin Jones (WR – DET)
Despite playing just 13 games and playing with a few backup quarterbacks, Jones finished as a top-30 wide receiver last year. Not many realize that he gets as many targets as Kenny Golladay when they’re both on the field. I understand saying that Golladay is on the rise, but saying that Jones will fall off completely would be a mistake considering the evidence supporting him the last two seasons. Jones is on the last year of his contract and 30 years old, so he’s playing for one last contract. Jones is someone who you can play as a WR3 roughly half the time, which means he’s more of a WR3/4-type player than he is an every-week WR3, but at his cost, he’s not a bad bet at all.
88. Christian Kirk (WR – ARI)
He has the benefit of playing a year with Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, while DeAndre Hopkins may go through a learning curve. Despite playing just 13 games last year, Kirk saw 107 targets (132 target pace over 16 games). The issue is that Hopkins will get a large chunk of the pie, and Larry Fitzgerald didn’t return to play another season to see just 50 targets. It’ll be hard for anyone to correctly predict the target share among these receivers, but Kirk is an ascending talent who’s entering year three of his young career. Knowing the Cardinals receivers combined for 368 targets last year, it’s hard to see a scenario where Kirk sees more targets than he did last year, especially when you know they run a lot of 4WR sets (which cuts into the overall target pie). Kirk has also scored just three touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, so touchdowns aren’t likely to make up for a lower target share. He’s likely going to be somewhat of a hit-or-miss WR3/4 in 2020 with inconsistent targets.
89. Marquise Brown (WR – BAL)
He was coming off foot surgery last year, and it was the reason I was avoiding him in drafts. Same calendar year surgery on foot/ankle never goes well for pass catchers. Still, Brown went out there and played well the first two weeks, racking up 253 yards and two touchdowns over the first two weeks. Unfortunately, the injuries to his lower body added up as the year went on and his performances reflected that, as he topped 50 yards just once over the remaining 12 games he played. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has said Brown’s “had a great offseason.” Brown’s schedule is great to start the year, too. In Weeks 2-5, he’ll play against the Texans, Chiefs, Washington, and Bengals. The upside to Brown is a DeSean Jackson-like presence of someone who won’t be a consistent WR1, but rather one you play as a WR2/3 who gives you “boom” potential on a weekly basis. However, if the Ravens don’t up their pass attempts, it’ll be hard figuring out when those booms will come. Relying on him as more than a WR3 this year would probably be a mistake, because there’s not much evidence suggesting they’ll throw the ball a lot more than they did in 2019.
90. Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)
Sure, Wentz hasn’t had the ceiling you’d like, producing no games over 25.0 fantasy points over the last two years, but that’s what happens when your receivers can’t stay on the field. To produce top-12 type numbers 50-plus percent of the time while dealing with those injuries says a lot about his floor, and we’ve seen his ceiling in 2017. The only other quarterback who’s hit the 50 percent mark in three straight years is Deshaun Watson. The Eagles have added Jalen Reagor to the offense, a receiver who can play all over the field, and stretch a defense. DeSean Jackson is healthy coming into the year, and we saw Wentz’s biggest game of the year with him on the field in 2019. The concern is that Hurts is involved similarly to someone like Taysom Hill in New Orleans which could cost Wentz a few touchdowns here and there. Still, if you’re taking the “wait on quarterback” approach, Wentz is an ideal quarterback to have where you can just set-it-and-forget-it most of the time. He has top-five upside if his pass catchers can stay healthy.
91. Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Did you know that 36.4 percent of Allen’s fantasy production came on the ground last year? His nine rushing touchdowns were the sixth-most all-time, while his 631 rushing yards ranked 18th on that list. According to where his carries took place on the field, he scored 30.97 more fantasy points than he was supposed to on the ground alone. As a passer, he scored 1.66 fewer fantasy points than expected. The Bills want to play solid defense with a ball control style offense, and knowing Allen’s strengths, they’ll be running the ball quite a bit. The addition of Zack Moss to the backfield will lower Allen’s rushing touchdown ceiling, as Moss is a better version of 2019’s Frank Gore. Not many realize Gore ranked 13th among running backs for carries inside the five-yard-line. Adding Stefon Diggs will certainly help his choices when scanning the field, but Allen needs to get better completing the deep ball. My issue with Allen is his inconsistency, and I can best explain it with this stat: It took 18.6 fantasy points on average to finish as a top-12 quarterback in 2019. Allen hit that mark just 43.8 percent of the time, which was worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the same percentage as Jared Goff. Sure, the booms will be bigger with Allen than those guys, but he’s not someone you want to put in your starting lineup every week.
92. Matt Brieda (RB – MIA)
Breida is interesting, as he’s clearly the better pass-catching option of the two, though he’s still yet to see more than 36 targets in any one season. There were 107 targets to the running backs in Miami last year, so we could see a boost for Breida in that aspect, and he’s averaged a massive 4.99 yards per carry when he’s handed the ball. If Howard’s neck injury were to pop back up or he were to miss time, Breida is talented enough to make a difference in fantasy. Unfortunately, he’s being drafted slightly ahead of Howard, which doesn’t make too much sense. He should be viewed in the RB4 territory.
93. Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
I believe the move to sign Gronkowski was a great one, as it at least provided Brady with a level of familiarity. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to be great for fantasy. Do you remember the last time Gronkowski was on the field? He failed to top 44 yards in 7-of-13 games and scored in just three of them. He then proceeded to lose a lot of weight, get away from the game for a year, and then return, only to learn a new system in Tampa Bay. That’s a lot of obstacles, right? I’ve always been a Gronk supporter, but there are other options out there who offer more stability at tight end. Don’t forget that he also hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2011. I’d be willing to snag Gronk if he falls into the 10th round or so, but before then, you’re just taking on too many variables/risks. Howard is going to be playing behind Gronkowski, and that might not be a bad thing, as we know he’s learning/growing as a player and can likely use a veteran like Gronkowski around.
94. Tom Brady (QB – TB)
The end of an era. Crazy to write Brady’s name under the Bucs, but hey, this might be the least crazy thing about 2020. He’s going from Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. That should help his shockingly low 6.6 yards per attempt from 2019. Not only that, but 2019 was the first time in Brady’s career where he didn’t have a touchdown percentage of 4.0 or above. It was also the first time since 2004 where he completed less than 61 percent of his passes. Will the upgrade in receivers help him get back on track, or are we at the end for the greatest of all-time? The Patriots offensive line was not particularly good last year, so when you combined that with Brady’s inability to move at all, you get bad numbers. The Bucs offensive line hasn’t been good over the last few years, though they were slightly better in 2019, and they did draft tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round, highlighting the fact that they know Brady needs protection. They don’t have a James White/Julian Edelman on the roster to be his safety valve, though I suspect Godwin will become that player to him. Will the pass attempts drop off from Jameis Winston? Probably, but know that Bruce Arians has not fallen out of the top 20 in pass attempts since back in 2010. His teams have now been top-five in each of his last three years as a coach. Knowing they don’t have a running back like Saquon Barkley on the roster, we should expect 580-plus pass attempts, and if you look at the receivers on the roster, and what their career averages are when it comes to yards per target, yards per reception, touchdowns, etc., it’s hard to say Brady won’t finish as a top-12 quarterback in 2020. There’s risk that he’s just flat-out done, as well as risk of chemistry with no offseason, but Brady did workout with a lot of the skill-position players even when the NFL advised against it. He’s not a top-five candidate, but if you snag him as a back-end QB1, he shouldn’t lose you fantasy leagues. If you’d like to read about Brady more in-depth, I wrote an article after he signed with the Bucs here.
95. Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Remember when Shepard was considered a rising star who should shine in Odell Beckham’s absence? Well, he’s still the No. 1 wide receiver on this team, though drafters don’t seem to think so. He’s the WR46 in ADP, while Darius Slayton is the WR39, and Golden Tate is the WR54. Their ADP doesn’t match their opportunity. You can argue that Slayton is only going to get better, but can’t we say the same about Shepard who just turned 27 years old? He didn’t see fewer than six targets in any game last year, and that’s despite being held out of practice constantly. I won’t say that the new offense can’t change things, because they will, but Shepard has been a proven performer in this league for four years now. If you want to hold off on drafting wide receivers while loading up on running backs, Shepard might be able to fill that role of low-upside WR3 who offers some target stability to your lineup.
96. Henry Ruggs (WR – LV)
It appears that the Raiders will start by using Ruggs in the slot, which makes more sense than most realize. He’s fast, sure. However, that’s not his best attribute. He’s slippery in the open field, takes great angles and utilizes his speed to get away from defenders. The best thing to do is get Ruggs the ball in his hands and let him create. Did you know that Jerry Jeudy had more than double the deep-ball receptions that Ruggs did while at Alabama? It’s because Ruggs was used a lot on screens and reverses. Putting him in the slot will manufacture touches to get the ball in his hands and let him create. He shouldn’t be pigeonholed to the slot, and I don’t think he will be, but playing there is not a bad thing. Did you know slot targets are worth 10.8 percent more than perimeter targets? Seriously, I’ve done the research (can be read here). On top of that, Derek Carr had the lowest average depth of target among quarterbacks last year, so should love someone like Ruggs who creates after the catch. When a team spends a No. 12 overall pick on someone, they’re going to find ways to get him the ball, so finding out the slot is his primary home makes you feel better about his potential in year one. I’d say his floor should be around 70 targets with a ceiling of 100 targets. He should also get some carries mixed in. Because of that combined with his one-play upside, he’s worth WR3 consideration. Fortunately, you don’t have to use a high pick on him, as he’s going around the 11th-12th round. Even if you reach a round or two, I don’t think you’ll be disappointed if you have him on your roster as a WR4 with tremendous weekly upside.
97. Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI)
It was a shock to see the Eagles pass on Justin Jefferson to select Reagor because Jefferson seemed tailormade for their offense, but that doesn’t make Reagor a bad choice. In fact, he was my No. 3 receiver in this draft class behind only Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. He’s a very explosive player who can play all over the field and create yards after the catch. Knowing that Marquise Goodwin opted out, Alshon Jeffery looks likely to start on the PUP list, and DeSean Jackson turning 34 years old, Reagor might lead this team’s wide receivers in targets. All we’ve heard this offseason is that Reagor is “everything the Eagles thought he’d be and more.” You can read my scouting report on him here. If Jeffery does, in fact, start out the season on the PUP list, Reagor is someone I’m willing to draft with one of my first bench spots, as he has 100-target potential. I can make the case for him to be a WR3 in fantasy, but you don’t want to erase all equity.
98. Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Over the last five years, I haven’t scouted a wide receiver who was more pro-ready and well-rounded than Jeudy. With essentially no offseason, it’s going to be difficult for him to walk in and develop instant chemistry with Drew Lock. At the same time, everyone on the team is learning a new offense, as Pat Shurmur has walked in as the offensive coordinator. Still, it’ll be hard for him to overtake Courtland Sutton as the team’s leader in targets. Jeudy can play many roles, including being the deep threat down the field, playing the possession-style role, or moving into the slot, which he did regularly at Alabama. Sutton isn’t someone who’ll move into the slot very often, which is a good thing for Jeudy, as Shurmur’s slot receivers have done damage in the past. Again, the negative is that fellow rookie KJ Hamler is also a slot presence who’s going to get some playing time. There’s a path to Jeudy being a Terry McLaurin-like fantasy option this year, but his path to targets is not as easy. If Sutton stays on the field, Jeudy will be too inconsistent to trust on a weekly basis. He’s still not a bad on to have on your bench as a WR4/5, because the talent is there.
99. Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ)
There were just 24 wide receivers who finished with 110-plus targets last year. Crowder was one of them. He was No. 16, actually. Did you know he’s the only one who didn’t finish as a top-26 wide receiver? His No. 31 finish was better than most would anticipate, though it was uglier than you’d like it to be. In fact, he produced WR3 or better numbers just 43.8 percent of the time, which ranked 42nd among wide receivers. He also scored fewer than 8.0 PPR points in 43.8 percent of his games. With that being said, he’s the only receiver returning to the starting lineup for Sam Darnold. Both Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are new faces who are going to require time to learn the new offense and develop chemistry with Darnold. Crowder’s targets aren’t likely to go anywhere. In fact, they might actually go up, which is kind of crazy. Crowder doesn’t offer top-15 wide receiver upside, but he does present some stability as a mix-and-match WR3/4 type who presents a solid floor in a pinch. His current ADP of WR49 allows you to get him as your WR5 in some situations, which is fine if you need to add some balance to your high-upside team.
100. J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Dobbins is the upside pick of the bunch, but knowing how well Ingram was playing last year, and that the Ravens still decided to give Edwards/Hill a combined 12-15 touches per week, you have to wonder just how much upside he’ll have. If everyone is healthy, it’s tough to say any of them have RB1 upside, even in this high-scoring offense. If there’s an injury to either Ingram or Dobbins, then we’d have an every-week starter.
101. Sony Michel (RB – NE)
After a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign where he failed to finish as a top-24 running back despite racking up 209 carries in the high-scoring Patriots offense, Michel had an even worse sophomore campaign, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and scoring just seven touchdowns on 259 touches. The Patriots spent a first-round pick on him, so he’ll be given every opportunity to succeed, but they won’t allow him to be inefficient much longer with Damien Harris waiting in the wings and Lamar Miller recently signed. Michel simply hasn’t been the player we watched at Georgia. It’s hard to see losing Tom Brady actually help him become more efficient.
102. Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR)
Henderson is likely the one who offers better value of the Rams’ two rookie running backs, as he’s being drafted three full rounds behind Cam Akers. In fact, I don’t think it’s a bad strategy to snag both of them given their cost, but you must understand the downside … that they’re like the 49ers’ running backs.
103. Anthony Miller (WR – CHI)
I’m not sure many realize just how many targets Taylor Gabriel was getting in this offense the last two years and losing him may have been the key to unlocking Miller’s potential. Gabriel totaled 141 targets in 25 games, which amounts to 5.64 per game, or 90 over a full 16-game season. The splits last year when Gabriel was in/out of the lineup over a 16-game pace would be 103 targets, 66 receptions, 846 yards, and five touchdowns. There’s a good reason the analysts in the industry (ECR) are higher on Miller than the public (ADP).
104. Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Gibson is the one people are clamoring to in the middle rounds as the first Washington running back off the board, though it requires some serious foresight to get there. Yes, he’s 6-feet tall and 228 pounds, and ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. He also didn’t total 80 touches in college. Seriously, he totaled just 77 touches in his two years at Memphis. To be fair, he was highly efficient with those touches, but suddenly projecting him for 10-15 touches per game as a rookie is a bit of a leap. So you know, J.D. McKissic had more touches last year than Gibson did during his whole college career. We don’t even know how Washington will use him. Is he a slot receiver for them? Is he a running back? Ron Rivera has said he views him as a running back, but they have him taking part in wide receiver meetings as well. Signing Peyton Barber to a 2-year, $3 million contract? Why? That signing was an odd one for me and it screamed we’re going to have a committee. He’s averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last three seasons and doesn’t offer anything in the passing game.
105. Zack Moss (RB – BUF)
Moss will be taking over the old Frank Gore, which certainly has value. Based on the touches he received in 2019, he should’ve finished as a top-36 running back. Moss will post RB3/flex-ype numbers when he scores, but comes with RB2 upside should Devin Singletary miss any time.
106. CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
When the Cowboys drafted Lamb at No. 17 overall, I wondered if he’d immediately take over Michael Gallup‘s No. 2 role in the offense, but cooler heads prevailed. Lamb is coming from the Big-12 where the defenses are pretty horrendous, so the learning curve might be bigger than some expect. On top of that, he’s going to have zero game experience with no preseason. It seems very likely that Lamb will start out as a slot-heavy receiver, which should help his transition into the faster pace of the NFL, and it’s a role that Randall Cobb saw 83 targets in last year. Keep in mind that was Cobb’s first year in the offense, so we should see Lamb reach or exceed that number. But temper expectations in fantasy, as he’s clearly the third option this year behind Cooper and Gallup. He’s someone who belongs in the WR4/5 conversation. If either of Cooper or Gallup were to miss time, Lamb would be a WR3 start with upside for more.
107. Adrian Peterson (RB – WAS)
Do you really think Peterson re-signed with Washington so he could sit on the bench? Even if Derrius Guice was still on the team, Peterson was going to get carries. Did you realize he’s totaled 462 carries over the last two years? That ranks ninth in the NFL. He’s been pretty good on them, too, totaling 4.20 yards per carry and scoring 12 touchdowns. He’s going to eat up at least 10 carries per game, which is a good chunk of the pie.
108. Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET)
We all know Johnson’s struggled to stay on the field over his first two seasons, and it led the Lions to draft D’Andre Swift at the top of the second round. You don’t draft a running back at the top of the second round to not use him. Johnson’s skillset clashes with that of Swift, so it’s unlikely he sees more than 10-12 touches per game.
109. James White (RB – NE)
White has always been a value, especially in PPR formats, but with Tom Brady gone, this team is likely to throw a whole lot less, and White has never averaged more than 5.9 carries per game.
110. Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Pollard only totaled 101 touches last year, but he was explosive with them. Drafting Pollard as one of the best backups in the game makes tons of sense, as he’d walk into a league-winning role should Elliott miss time. On top of that, we may get flex viability with McCarthy as the head coach, as he used the combination of Eddie Lacy and James Starks in somewhat of a timeshare. I’m not saying Lacy is close to Elliott, but rather that McCarthy has been known to do a slight split in backfields. There’s a slight possibility that Pollard has a bigger role in 2020.
111. Matthew Stafford (QB – DET)
There are a lot of people talking about Stafford as a sleeper this year and that he’s undervalued based on what we saw last year, which was just eight games. Did we forget that Stafford he has 10 other years of sample size to look at? It’s hard to say this is his most talented wide receiver corps, as he played with Calvin Johnson for a long time. It’s clear who Stafford is, right? I mean, he’s a very good, consistent quarterback, but last year was the first time he’s finished as a top-12 quarterback more than half the time. By comparison, Carson Wentz has hit at least 50 percent in each of the last three years. Stafford’s 8.6 yards per attempt was easily the highest mark of his career, as he never topped 7.9 yards per attempt before. In fact, he’d been over 7.6 just once. I like Stafford and think he’s undervalued from a real-life standpoint, but he’s a high-end QB2 in fantasy who’ll give you QB1-type numbers just under half the time. You also can’t forget about his back problems that shut him down last year.
112. Drew Brees (QB – NO)
The Saints went from running 67-69 plays per game on offense during the 2013-2016 seasons to running just 62-63 plays per game from 2017-2019. Why do you believe that is? For one, Brees is now 41 years old. Remember when quarterbacks retired before they were 40? Meanwhile, Brees continues to break his completion percentage records. But more importantly, the Saints defense is as good as it’s ever been under Sean Payton. This leads to fewer pass attempts. In 2019, he threw a touchdown on 7.1 percent of his passes, a new career high. Knowing his career rate is 5.4 percent (5.6 percent in New Orleans), we should expect him to come closer to that range. He’s a fantasy quarterback who presents a sturdy floor, but his upside is dissipating as the offense throws the ball less and less. On top of that, Taysom Hill is there to steal the occasional touchdown. Brees is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, but you shouldn’t overpay for him in fantasy football in 2020.
113. Jack Doyle (TE – IND)
We’ve watched the Colts tight end duo score plenty of fantasy points over the last two years under Frank Reich, right? They’ve combined for 186 receptions, 2,096 yards and 25 touchdowns in that time. Now, we get Philip Rivers, the guy who’s supported a top-11 tight end in all but one season in his long career, yet none of the Colts tight ends are being drafted in the top 18 at the position? The logical one is Doyle, who has now seen 105 targets in 22 games under Frank Reich. Burton is similar in the way that he’s more of a move tight end while Doyle is the traditional one who’ll be on the field most of the time. In a year where the Colts threw the ball just 513 times, it’s good to see Doyle with at least four targets in 12-of-15 games. If you want to wait at tight end and search for a potential every-week starter, Doyle makes some sense.
114. Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
There have been whispers about Coleman getting the bigger role, but I can’t believe them. He had the bigger role early in the season but wasn’t particularly efficient. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry or less in 9-of-14 games. He topped 45 rushing yards three times all season. In the games he totaled at least 12 carries, he failed to top 3.1 yards per carry in 4-of-5 games. Coleman is a timeshare back, that’s what he is. He’s not someone you should draft as anything more than a mediocre RB4 who would have spot-start ability if Mostert missed time.
115. Duke Johnson (RB – HOU)
Johnson has been highly efficient all over the field for multiple teams now, yet no coaches have wanted to give him a bigger role. He’s yet to top 104 carries in a season. Now five years into his career, it’s probably unrealistic that he breaks out without David Johnson getting injured, but it’s definitely possible that Duke is the better running back at this stage in their careers. The Texans can’t do that though, not after they traded what they did for David. Because of that, Duke is an RB4 who should get a big opportunity if David really isn’t able to get back to full health.
116. Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Not many realize that Williams ranked eighth among wide receivers in air yards last year. That’s incredible opportunity. Unfortunately, he averaged just 2.0 yards of separation when targeted, which was the lowest number in football. Williams needs a quarterback who’s willing to throw it into tight coverage to succeed. We haven’t seen Tyrod Taylor play in a little bit, but the last season he was a starter was in 2017. He threw into tight coverage just 15.2 percent of the time, which was the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. In 2016, Taylor’s mark was just 14.2 percent, the third-lowest mark in the league. Philip Rivers was at a much higher 17.1 percent last year. Williams is much more reliant on touchdowns to produce than Keenan Allen, which is why you should probably be fading the receiver who struggles with separation, especially now that he’s playing with a quarterback who’s not aggressive. Rivers has thrown 83 touchdowns in the 48 games since Williams came into the league. Meanwhile, Taylor has thrown 33 touchdown passes in his last 32 starts. Williams should be considered a WR4, at best.
117. Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)
Everyone wants the shiny new toy that just posted 740 yards and eight touchdowns on just 83 targets last year, as evidenced by his WR39 ADP. The issue is stability. With Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in the mix, it’s going to be very hard for Slayton to get consistent targets and be reliable in fantasy. Sure, he had multiple 120-yard, two-touchdown games last year, but you know what else he had… after those games? A game with three targets. Another game with two targets. Keep in mind that was while Evan Engram was out of the lineup. Slayton outproduced what everyone expected last year, being a fifth-round pick, but there’s a real chance he’s the No. 5 option in this passing attack when everyone is healthy. His average depth of target last year was 14.5 yards down the field, which ranked 10th in all of football. That further indicates a boom/bust player who’s being taken as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. If you want to believe in his ceiling, that’s fine, but don’t pay for it. He’s in the WR4 territory and not as safe as Shepard or Tate. If someone misses time, we saw what he can do if promoted.
118. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB)
Vaughn has already fallen behind on the offense after he was forced to leave the team with COVID. He’s probably the long-term handcuff but knowing Arians hasn’t fully trusted young inexperienced running backs, he may not add much value this year.
119. John Brown (WR – BUF)
The addition of Stefon Diggs likely crushed the appeal that Brown had in fantasy football. The Bills gave up a first, fourth, fifth, and sixth-round pick for Diggs (and a seventh rounder). That’s a lot. The fact that there will be no preseason certainly helps Brown, as he has experience and chemistry with Josh Allen, as well as knowing the offense. Here’s the crazy part about Brown last year: He hit WR3 or better numbers in 73.3 percent of his games, which ranked 11th in the league. He only hit WR2 or better numbers in 26.7 percent of his games, which ranked 51st in the league. Now start removing targets to get Diggs his, and we suddenly lose some of that WR3 floor that he had. He is a good football player who just won’t get enough targets to start on a consistent basis. Now, if Diggs were to miss any time, we could go back to playing him as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. Until then, Brown is in the WR4 range for me.
120. Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
In case you missed it, Samuel broke his foot in June and needed to have surgery immediately. Any time a pass catcher has surgery on a foot or ankle in the same calendar year, you have to be concerned, as we’ve seen players continually struggle to produce. Kyle Shanahan has already come forward saying that Samuel will miss games, and that the only question is how many. This is a bit reminiscent of A.J. Green last year, where I kept telling people to take the discount as your WR3. Oddly enough, Samuel is being drafted in WR3 territory as the WR30 right now. There’s no way I’ll advise to make that mistake again, especially with a player who has such a limited sample size. He saw 81 targets last year. That’s hardly “can’t miss” material, anyway. If he falls into the double-digit rounds, he’s not a bad gamble, but I wouldn’t take him prior to then.
121. Mecole Hardman (WR – KC)
I understand the want to draft Hardman, I really do. But has the hype train gotten out of control? He’s played four years of college and pro football, and here are his touch totals (most recent first): 30, 40, 33, and 0. He’s been highly efficient on almost all of those touches, but at some point, you have to ask yourself why he’s not getting more. Seriously, his efficiency last year was out of this world. Here are some stats for you from my 175 interesting facts from the 2019 football season article:
- Among wide receivers who’ve seen at least 30 targets, Mecole Hardman‘s 13.1 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
- Mecole Hardman averaged 2.77 PPR points per target in 2019, which ranked as the fourth-best mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
Pretty nuts, right? I’m not arguing his efficiency at all. His performance last year was very Tyreek Hill-esque, and I could see him breaking out similarly to Hill, “if” Hill wasn’t on the field with him. It certainly helps that the Chiefs are taking him off special teams to focus on offense, as that’s the same thing they did with Hill a few years ago. Drafting him as a WR4/5 could be worth the reward but understand that he might be the No. 5 option in the passing game behind Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Sammy Watkins. For a team that hasn’t thrown the ball more than 583 times in Andy Reid’s entire time in Kansas City, that directly impacts Hardman, even if he is uber efficient. If he starts playing more snaps than Watkins, that’s when you’ll see me completely buy in.
122. Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
Yes, we’ve been hearing reports that Mack may start for the Colts, but I’m not buying them. You don’t draft someone like Jonathan Taylor and play him behind Mack, who’s been a mediocre running back to this point in his career. Expect 8-10 touches per game with handcuff value.
123. Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
If something were to happen to Dalvin Cook where he missed time, I do believe this team would employ more of a timeshare approach between Mattison, Boone, and Abdullah, though Mattison would still be at least an every-week RB2 start.
123b. (Late Addition) Lamar Miller (RB – NE)
124. Boston Scott (RB – PHI)
Scott is still likely to have a role in the offense, especially after he played so well down the stretch. He himself averaged 37.3 snaps per game over the last month, though as I mentioned before, it was large in part to do with the lack of pass catchers healthy. He did score five touchdowns on just 61 carries and caught 24-of-26 passes for 204 yards, so you can say he earned a role in the offense. Think of Scott as a Chris Thompson-type who could walk into a bigger role than most think.
125. Jonnu Smith (TE – TEN)
Did you know there are three teams who’ve finished top-12 in tight end scoring over each of the last five years? The Chiefs, Eagles, and… Titans. Yep, even last year when they finished with the eighth most fantasy points as a team. Does that mean there could be a Smith breakout this season? Possibly, but let’s not forget that Delanie Walker missed nine games last year and Smith saw just 44 targets on the season. This has nothing to do with talent, because when you hear Bill Belichick mention Smith as one of the most talented at the position, you pay attention. No matter what the reason is for him not getting more targets, there’s something that’s been blocking him from a breakout. It’s not efficiency, as he averaged 10.0 yards per target (better than Kelce, Kittle, etc.) and scored a touchdown every 14.7 targets. There were two games during the season where he saw zero targets. That’s unacceptable for a player who’s supposed to be on the verge of a breakout. That’s what worries me about Smith, is that he’s on a run-first offense that will throw the ball 20 times in a game if that’s all they have to, leaving you in the dust. Because of that, he’s a high-end TE2 for me, but one who could take a massive leap this year.
126. T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
There’s an article I wrote this offseason that was titled, “Which Fantasy Players Should Have Scored the Most Fantasy Points.” In that article, I highlighted that every target/carry/pass attempt has an expected outcome in fantasy points. A target on your own 10-yard line isn’t worth as much as a target on the opponent’s 20-yard line, etc. Each of the tight ends who finished top-12 in opportunity finished top-13 at year’s end, so it’s clearly something to look for. Based on Hockenson’s pace over 16 games, he would’ve been the No. 12 tight end in opportunity. Now going into his second season, we should see his role grow. Hockenson was one of the least efficient players in all of football last year, and even going over the last 10 years, his 54.2 percent catch-rate ranked 331st among 357 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets. There’s only room for improvement, so if you’re looking for a potential late-round tight end, he has more opportunity than most realize.
127. Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Trusting a rookie quarterback in fantasy? Nonsense. Now? After we practically had no offseason? It sounds crazy, and it probably is. However, I don’t know if I’ve seen a quarterback with Burrow’s confidence and swag come into the league in a long time. He’s also walking into a situation where he has one of the best wide receiver depth charts in the league (when healthy). The offense that Zac Taylor ran last year presented plenty of opportunity, as Andy Dalton finished with the 12th most expected fantasy points despite missing three full games. He threw the ball at least 36 times in 11-of-13 games, including three games with 50-plus attempts. The offensive line is a problem, though it helps he’ll get last year’s first-round pick Jonah Williams back at left tackle. While the pass attempts and talent at wide receiver are great, what should attract you to Burrow is his willingness to run with the ball. Sure, he broke records as a passer at LSU, but he also rushed for nearly 800 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two years. That adds breakout potential to a quarterback, so when you combine that with his arm talent, he makes for an ideal QB2 in fantasy. The Bengals defense is in a complete rebuild mode, and while they’ve added talent this offseason, it’ll take time for them to come together. They allowed 26.2 points per game last year (8th most), so if they continue to struggle, Burrow could become 2020’s version of Jameis Winston.
128. Cam Newton (QB – NE)
The last time we saw Newton on a football field, he didn’t look so great. His season was ended in 2019 due to a Lisfranc injury that could affect his mobility moving forward, and he also had shoulder surgery after the 2018 season. In the two full games he played in 2019, he rushed for negative two yards. NEGATIVE. He needs the mobility in order to remain relevant in fantasy. Why? Well, do you know how many times he’s thrown more than 24 touchdowns in a season? Once. Jimmy Garoppolo threw 27 last year. I’m not saying that Newton doesn’t have any mobility anymore, but rather that he’s lost a lot of it. Newton rushed for at least 539 yards in each of his first five seasons. Since then, he’s topped 488 rushing yards once (over four years). On top of that, there’ve been just three quarterbacks who’ve rushed for 500 yards after turning 30 years old. Sure, Newton is a physical specimen, but that’s also what likely led to his injuries, as you’re not supposed to be as big as he is and move the way he does. Now you add in a shortened offseason, a new playbook, and new set of wide receivers, yet he’s still expected to return to the old days? He’s going to try, that much is certain. I’m guessing we get Newton Lite, something similar to what we saw in 2016 where he rushed for 359 yards and five touchdowns. I wouldn’t want to draft him with ultra-high expectations, and for what it’s worth, his draft position is perfectly fine, as he’s going around the QB15 in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. By drafting him there, you have no qualms about cutting him for a streamer if things don’t work out.
129. Sammy Watkins (WR – KC)
Does anyone else believe that Watkins may have played through injury in 2019? He hadn’t tallied anything less than 8.3 yards per target over the previous four years, and that’s despite some subpar quarterback talent in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Knowing that Watkins is the No. 2 option at wide receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense and that he’s going outside the top-50 wide receivers is bananas. Sure, he was bad in 2019, but he looked like the player we thought he’d be once they got to the playoffs, as he compiled 14 receptions for 288 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in their three playoff games. The Chiefs also had an opportunity to move on from Watkins this offseason, but they decided to keep him on the roster. He may not be an every-week option from the get-go, but knowing you have a player tied to Patrick Mahomes who saw six-plus targets in 10-of-17 games last year should carry some weight. Snagging him as a WR4/5 with upside makes too much sense, as we can’t let one inefficient year erase what he’s been throughout his career. There’s an avenue to him finishing as a WR3 without injury in front of him.
130 . Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)
There are many fantasy enthusiasts out there who think that with the arrival of Chan Gailey, that Gesicki’s stock went through the roof. This is due to him playing 71.8 percent of his snaps last year in the slot, the highest mark of any tight end in the league. Everyone will be quick to remind you of Eric Decker and how he demolished the slot role in Gailey’s offense. My issue is this: Gesicki hasn’t been good. Decker was extremely good before Gailey’s offense. Just because Gesicki played in the slot under the last offensive coordinator, it doesn’t mean Gailey will use him the same way. Now, to be fair, it does help that Albert Wilson opted out, as he occupied the slot most of the time. But if you look at Gailey’s overall target rankings for his tight ends, it’s tough to argue for Gesicki. They’ve finished 28th or worse in seven of the last eight seasons. Keep in mind the good season was with Tony Gonzalez, who just happens to be an all-time top-three tight end. Meanwhile, Gesicki has averaged a measly 6.4 yards per target over his first two seasons. He is young and there is a learning curve with young tight ends, so I’m not going to write him off or anything, but I want you to know that Gailey hasn’t been kind to tight ends not named Gonzalez. There are a wide variety of outcomes for Gesicki in 2020. One of them includes him finishing outside the top-15 tight ends, while another has him finishing top-10. If you’re looking for a breakout tight end who can finish top-five, he’s probably not your guy, as this offense just doesn’t score enough. Just don’t reach for him.
131. Robby Anderson (WR – CAR)
Switching teams as a wide receiver this offseason seems… less than ideal. It does help, however, when there’s a new quarterback on that team, as well as a coach you’ve played for in the past. Matt Rhule was the coach while Anderson was at Temple back in 2015. The issue is that Bridgewater’s strengths don’t really align with Anderson’s. Bridgewater threw the ball 20-plus yards just 7.1 percent of the time last year, which ranked second lowest in the league. Anderson’s skill set just doesn’t align with Bridgewater’s strengths as a passer, though they may try to force the issue after spending $20 million over two years on Anderson. Not having an offseason to build rapport makes me a bit more concerned, especially knowing we’ve seen Anderson’s effort level best described as “inconsistent” on the field. It’s tough to say he’ll be a better fantasy option than he was in New York, only now his asking price is much lower. Being taken outside the top 50 wide receivers is a discount worth taking in best-ball leagues, but in redraft, it’s tough to say he’ll be a consistent contributor. He’s the third option, at best.
132. Preston Williams (WR – MIA)
Did you know that Williams was the No. 39 wide receiver through nine weeks last year? That was despite them having their bye in Week 5, as well as him not being a true starter until Week 3. He was extremely good his rookie year. He’s coming off a torn ACL, which isn’t an injury that’s as detrimental as it used to be, but it may be tough for him to return as the same player in a brand-new offense. The Dolphins defense improved greatly, their run game should be much better, and they’ll eventually transition to a rookie quarterback. These are all question marks, but fortunately, Williams is being drafted outside the top 60 wide receivers, similar to the way DeVante Parker was last year. Given their current prices (Williams WR61, Parker WR22), Williams seems like a much better value than Parker this year. Knowing that Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out, there are plenty of targets up for grabs, making Williams a solid WR4/5 on fantasy teams that you can spot-start depending on matchups.
133. DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI)
We saw exactly one game with Jackson healthy in the Doug Pederson offense. It led to nine targets, eight receptions, 154 yards, and two touchdowns. To be fair, it was against Washington, but still impressive. It’s tough to take too much away from just one game, though. He is now 34 years old, so it’s only a matter of time before his game declines, though we haven’t seen it yet. He’s averaged at least 10.0 yards per target in six of his last seven seasons. With Marquise Goodwin opting out for the season, they’ll need Jackson in the field-stretching role. He’s a poor man’s version of Will Fuller at this stage of his career but can still fit in your lineup from time to time. At his current WR58 draft position, he’s a steal.
134. Parris Campbell (WR – IND)
If T.Y. Hilton continues to miss time with his hamstring ailment, Campbell is a candidate for sleeper of the year. Going back through the years with Philip Rivers, there’s always been a target over the middle of the field. Whether it be Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, or Eddie Royal. Campbell is going to fill the slot role when T.Y. Hilton is healthy, which isn’t a bad thing. And if Hilton were to miss time, Campbell will move around the formation. Fortunately, he’s a bigger, stronger, and faster version of Hilton. We haven’t seen him play at the level Hilton has, but the Colts did draft him in the second round last year, highlighting their vision for him in this offense. While Hilton remains sidelined and rookie Michael Pittman tries to acclimate to the NFL, Campbell is a dark horse to lead this team in targets. Taking him in the double-digit rounds makes tons of sense, and best of all, you’ll find out what you have over the first couple weeks.
135. Justin Jackson (RB – LAC)
Jackson and Joshua Kelley figure to fight for the No. 2 running back slot which has certainly had value over the last few years, though Melvin Gordon is more talented than both Jackson and Kelley. The combination of Gordon and Ekeler averaged 31 touches per game last year, so there is a lot to go around, though Tyrod Taylor will surely steal some opportunity. The question is whether those touches that Jackson and Kelley get come in the red zone, when it matters most. They’re both likely touchdown-dependent options, though Jackson would be my choice to get the bigger opportunity from the start. He’s averaged 5.14 yards per carry through his first two seasons in the league.
136. Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
Here’s a fun fact: Jones had two of the top-10 single game performances by quarterbacks in 2019. Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are the only two other quarterbacks who can say that. In fact, Jones had four games where he tallied 28-plus fantasy points, including three games over 30 points, something Philip Rivers has never done in his career. It wasn’t all pretty, though. Outside of those four explosion games, Jones was a train wreck, finishing with 14.7 or fewer fantasy points in the eight other games he started. His matchups where he exploded were against the Washington Football team, Bucs, Jets, and Lions. That’s a far cry from his start to the season in 2020 where he’ll open the season against the Steelers, Bears, and 49ers. You’re going to find him on waiver wires before long. In fact, he has one of the toughest schedules in the league, though the start is just brutal. What his 2019 season reminded me of was 2018 Mitch Trubisky. Now to be fair, Jones is under a new head coach, though Jason Garrett may not be a better play caller than Pat Shurmur. On top of that, Jones never got the luxury to play with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton on the field at the same time. The upside is certainly there for Jones to take the leap into top-12 quarterback status, but the early schedule means you shouldn’t draft him in 1QB leagues, unless you plan on platooning quarterbacks. In 2QB formats, he’s the ideal solution, as he has job security, rushing upside, and his defense is horrendous.
137. Noah Fant (TE – DEN)
It was a successful rookie year for Fant. So many fantasy players have seemingly forgotten it typically takes a few years for tight ends to become someone you can rely on. He saw 66 targets his rookie year and ranked 15th in expected fantasy points among tight ends. The discerning part is that he didn’t tally more than four targets in any game with Drew Lock. In fact, he averaged just 2.8 targets per game with him, while averaging 4.7 targets per game with the other quarterbacks. We’ve now watched the Broncos add three talented pass-catching options in Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon this offseason, which won’t help his target share go up. On top of that, they selected Okwuegbunam in the fourth round, who happens to be Lock’s old college tight end who he loved targeting in the red zone. Fant is still the top tight end on this team, but I cannot say he’s a lock to see 70-plus targets in 2020. That puts him outside the starting tight end territory, and knowing his ceiling might be around 80-85 targets, I would probably look elsewhere in the TE10-15 range for someone with true breakout potential.
138. Jared Cook (TE – NO)
After not scoring more than six touchdowns in any of his first 10 years in the league, Cook burst onto the Saints last year, scoring nine touchdowns on just 65 targets in 14 games. Not just that, but he also averaged a ridiculous 16.4 yards per reception. No other tight end with at least 25 targets averaged more than 14.0 yards per reception. Let me be clear: He’s going to regress in both categories. He’s going to need more targets in order to live up to his TE9 price tag, and I don’t see how he gets them with Emmanuel Sanders added to the roster, as well as the projected decline in pass attempts. Even if he saw 70 targets, do you want to know just how hard it is to be a top-12 tight end with them? Over the last 10 years, there’ve been 120 tight ends who’ve finished top-12 (math). Just nine of them finished there with fewer than 72 targets. And, for what it’s worth, five of them finished TE11 or TE12. I have Cook as my No. 15 tight end because that’s the most likely scenario. We’ve already seen the best-case one. I dare you to think it happens in back-to-back years, especially when they drafted a tight end (Trautman) in the third round.
139. Nyheim Hines (RB – IND)
Some think he’ll be the “new Austin Ekeler” for Philip Rivers. For that to happen, he’d have to actually be on the field. Hines played 21.3 snaps per game last year, and that was with Mack missing two full games. Ekeler averaged 38.1 snaps per game last year.
140. Anthony McFarland (RB – PIT)
Benny Snell is apparently the backup, as Mike Tomlin’s comments from May suggest. “Benny Snell is a guy that is capable of being a featured runner who plays with a physical style in a similar manner to James. He’s capable of being a James -type of guy if James is unavailable.” That also tells me that McFarland is going to have his own standalone role in the offense, which makes sense considering I had him pegged as a Chris Thompson-type running back with more tackle-breaking ability. It’s possible they give the fourth-round rookie 5-8 touches per game. It’s also possible he surpasses Snell as the backup, though that may take time. Still, I’d rather own McFarland at the end of my roster than Snell.
141. Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC)
Justin Jackson and Kelley figure to fight for the No. 2 running back slot which has certainly had value over the last few years, though Melvin Gordon is more talented than both Jackson and Kelley. The combination of Gordon and Ekeler averaged 31 touches per game last year, so there is a lot to go around, though Tyrod Taylor will surely steal some opportunity. The question is whether those touches that Jackson and Kelley get come in the red zone, when it matters most. They’re both likely touchdown-dependent options, though Jackson would be my choice to get the bigger opportunity from the start. He’s averaged 5.14 yards per carry through his first two seasons in the league.
142. Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT)
This is one of the weirdest offseasons in NFL history. It’s uncharted territory with so many question marks. Then you add in Roethlisberger, who’s been rehabbing from an elbow injury that had him tear three tendons in his throwing arm. Yikes. His teammates have said he looks good while throwing the ball around, and have also said he’s lost weight, and looks lighter on his feet. Many are undervaluing the Steelers this year due to what happened last year, but don’t forget they averaged 66.4 and 66.1 plays per game in 2017 and 2018, while averaging just 58.6 plays per game in 2019. That amounts to an extra 120-plus plays for this offense with Roethlisberger back. The pass attempts dropped from 687 to 510. While that 687 number from 2018 was sky-high, the Steelers continually have averaged 585-610 pass attempts. We can talk about Roethlisberger throwing at least 26 touchdowns in six of his last eight seasons and that he’s averaged at least 7.5 yards per attempt each year from 2014-2018, but none of that matters if his elbow isn’t right. It adds a level of risk to the entire roster, though he was apparently playing through some elbow pain for quite some time, and it makes sense considering how three tendons finally snapped. We’ll talk about it throughout the season in The Primer, but you should also know that Roethlisberger has been horrendous on the road over the last six years, averaging just 15.22 fantasy points per game compared to the 22.19 fantasy points per game at home. He opens the season on the road against the Giants, which is a juicy matchup, but should you trust him coming off the arm injury? I’d probably play it safe and stream him throughout the year once we know he’s healthy.
143. Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE)
It was a nightmare sophomore season for Mayfield, who regressed rather than progressed. His completion percentage dropped 4.4 points, yards per attempt dropped 0.5 yards, he threw five less touchdowns, and threw seven more interceptions. Wait, I thought Odell Beckham was supposed to help? It’s clear that Freddie Kitchens hurt all players involved, as even Nick Chubb was extremely inefficient in the red zone, totaling negative 16 yards on nine carries inside the five-yard-line. Let’s just erase that season, shall we? Kevin Stefanski will be the new head coach and play caller. Do we have a lot to go off? Not really. What we do know is that they added two offensive linemen who’ll make a difference at the most important positions, as well as add a pass-catching tight end. It seems they would like to replicate what the Vikings did last year under Stefanski, which would be brutal for Mayfield’s outlook, as Kirk Cousins threw the ball just 444 times. Mayfield has some mobility but not enough to overcome that low of volume through the air. But knowing that’s possible, we know Mayfield could have a lower floor than most would like to admit. He should be treated as an excellent QB2 in Superflex/2QB formats, while being looked at as a streamer in standard leagues.
144. Gardner Minshew (QB – JAX)
It was quite miraculous what Minshew accomplished in 2020, especially when you factor in the lack of draft capital (sixth-round pick) they used to acquire him. Don’t understand just how good he was?
And keep in mind that Minshew didn’t even start two of the games included in that sample. Am I going to say that he should be drafted like Murray? No. However, he is being undervalued by those in 2QB leagues. The average quarterback rushes for a touchdown every 96.2 yards rushing. Had Minshew scored three rushing touchdowns (instead of the zero that he did) on 344 rushing yards, he would’ve finished as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback… in his rookie season… as a sixth-round pick. The Jaguars defense is as bad as ever, so we’ll see plenty of pass attempts out of him. It should also be noted that Jay Gruden (his new coordinator) has produced top-14 quarterbacks in 6-of-9 years, and the years he didn’t, there were injuries and/or multiple quarterbacks playing. Minshew has zero competition and can potentially be a Jameis Winston-lite in 2020. He’s the perfect target in 2QB leagues and will be streamable quite a bit in 1QB leagues.
145. Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
When someone goes from anywhere in between 6.7 and 7.7 yards per attempt throughout their first six years, then jumps up to 9.6 yards per target, we call that an outlier, especially when said outlier contains just a 286-pass attempt sample size. We can’t ignore it, though. Tannehill put his name on the record books, as his 117.5 QB Rating in 2019 ranks as the fourth-best all-time. His 0.67 fantasy points per actual pass attempt ranked as the fourth-best mark over the last 10 years. What made it all that more impressive is that he was sacked every 10.8 dropbacks, which was the third-most often in the league. By comparison, Drew Brees was sacked every 32.5 dropbacks. So, that leaves us saying, “Okay, we know there’ll be regression, but how much?” Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans have run exactly 58.8 plays per game in each of his first two seasons as head coach. We know they want to be a run-first team, right? That’s why the pass attempts have been 432 in 2018 and 448 in 2019. That’s a problem. For the sake of argument, let’s raise that number to 500, which would be a massive difference. Even assigning Tannehill a number of 8.3 yards per attempt (Patrick Mahomes‘ number from 2019), it would amount to 4,150 yards. Then let’s say he throws a touchdown on 5.0 percent of his passes (Dak Prescott from 2019). That would amount to 25 touchdowns. So, 4,150 passing yards and 25 touchdowns while comparing him to Mahomes and Prescott, while raising his pass attempts up to 500? Do you see why it makes little sense to think Tannehill even approaches top-10 territory? By comparison, Tom Brady threw for 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns last year – he was hardly usable. Treat Tannehill as a streamer and you’ll be happy. He’s a great No. 2 quarterback to have in Superflex/2QB leagues because he’s locked into the job and has shown top-five upside, even if it’s highly improbable.
146. Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
It’s never easy to lose your top receiver during the offseason, which is what happened to Cousins when the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs. They tried to replace him immediately, snagging Justin Jefferson in the first round of the NFL Draft. For a guy who threw just 444 pass attempts and offers no mobility, it’s quite an accomplishment to finish as the No. 15 fantasy quarterback, as Cousins did. Now, with Kevin Stefanski out of town, you must wonder if the offense moves towards a more balanced attack under Gary Kubiak, though he may have been the genius behind the offense last year. Still, it’s unrealistic to think Cousins throws the ball just 444 times again. Not only is the defense going through a rebuild process, but the Vikings just can’t remain that efficient on the ground. Did you know the previous three seasons, Cousins was the (most recent first) QB12, QB6, and QB5? He’s trending in the wrong direction, but he’s still been a usable streamer in 1QB leagues. I’d be shocked if he’s below 500 pass attempts this year, though he is going to become less efficient losing Diggs. Even if we repeated last year’s numbers, Cousins ranked 20th in top-18-type performances, which make him a solid quarterback to use in 2QB/Superflex formats. He has no shot to lose the job, likely sees increased volume, and has finished as a top-five quarterback before. Just don’t draft him in 1QB leagues as a starter for Week 1, because he’s playing the Packers, a team he scored just 8.9 and 6.9 fantasy points against last year.
147. Jared Goff (QB – LAR)
I can’t explain what happened to Goff after that game in 2018 where the Rams went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs (remember that 54-51 game?) but something happened. In his first 26 games under Sean McVay, Goff threw 54 touchdowns on 858 pass attempts (6.3 percent touchdown rate). Since that Chiefs game in 2018, he’s thrown just 28 touchdowns in 21 games on 806 pass attempts (3.5 percent touchdown rate). That’s not great for a quarterback who offers nothing with his legs. He did throw two touchdowns in eight games last year but didn’t hit three touchdowns until Week 17. Now you take away Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, only to replace them with Van Jefferson and Cam Akers? It’s quite ridiculous, but the Rams didn’t address the offensive line issues, either. Their offensive line was among the worst in football last year, which is a problem because Goff isn’t good under pressure. He ranked 25th among quarterbacks with a 60.4 QB Rating under duress. The offensive line is the biggest concern for me, as that’s the one thing that took a major step back last year, and it seriously impacted his numbers. The good news is that his pass attempts have been skyrocketing, which help make up for some of the decreased efficiency. Goff makes for a decent No. 2 quarterback in Superflex/2QB leagues, as he’s not getting benched, and there’s always the possibility he goes back to who he was, though I’m not counting on it based on the moves that were – and weren’t – made this offseason.
148. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
In case you didn’t know, Jefferson is coming off a ridiculous season with LSU where he tallied 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns over 15 games. He played the big-slot role for them, which is something the Vikings should take into consideration when figuring out how to best deploy him. Unfortunately, Jefferson wound up on the COVID list and is being forced to miss a lot of camp. Still, he’s a route-running technician who’s playing behind a 30-year-old receiver who’s been dealing with back issues. There’s an avenue where Jefferson is relied upon as a rookie more than most think, though it would likely require Thielen to be out of the lineup. Under Gary Kubiak/Kevin Stefanski last year, the wide receivers saw just 43.2 percent of the target share (4th-lowest mark in the NFL), making it very difficult for multiple options to be fantasy relevant on a week-to-week basis. Because of that, Jefferson is essentially just a wide receiver handcuff.
149. Golden Tate (WR – NYG)
I remember when Tate was just a young guy in the league trying to find a role in the Seahawks offense. Here we are, now entering his 11th season at 32 years old. As you can see from the Shepard paragraph, Tate was semi-consistent with his targets, but you also have to factor in where he played on the field. Both Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram missed time throughout the year, which should’ve led to more targets for Tate. He had them most of the time, but even more importantly, he produced when he played. He produced WR3 or better numbers in 81.8 percent of his games last year. You know who did that more often than him? Michael Thomas. That’s it. It is a new offense and Barkley/Engram are healthy, so don’t expect that anymore, but understand that there’s likely a place for him in fantasy football, especially when you consider the state of the Giants defense that’ll be among the league’s worst. He’s not sexy and won’t finish as a top-24 receiver, but he can be a WR4 type that you plug in when you know the Giants will be throwing a ton.
150. Allen Lazard (WR – GB)
We had to wonder whether it’d be Lazard or Devin Funchess as the starting receiver opposite Davante Adams, but after finding out that Funchess opted out, it should be Lazard’s job. Despite only being a part of the offense in 10 games, Lazard racked up 52 targets last year, including 17 of them in the final two games that he turned into 114 yards and a touchdown. That pace of targets over a 16-game season would add up to 83.2, which is certainly enough to be relevant, and there’s obviously room for growth with the departure of Geronimo Allison. Aaron Rodgers has continually gone to bat for Lazard, and that’s something to latch onto, as Rodgers did the same thing for Davante Adams back when he struggled at the start of his career. Lazard isn’t someone you should rely on for WR3 production right out of the gate, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities knowing that Rodgers trusts him. If you can land him as your WR5/6, there aren’t many in that territory who offer the target upside Lazard does without injury in front of them.
151. Blake Jarwin (TE – DAL)
152. Teddy Bridgewater (QB – CAR)
153. Philip Rivers (QB – IND)
154. Corey Davis (WR – TEN)
155. Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR)
156. Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
157. Austin Hooper (TE – CLE)
158. Damien Harris (RB – NE)
159. Breshad Perriman (WR – NYJ)
160. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
161. N’Keal Harry (WR – NE)
162. Emmanuel Sanders (WR – NO)
163. Dede Westbrook (WR – JAX)
164. Alshon Jeffery (WR – PHI)
165. DeAndre Washington (RB – KC)
166. Cole Beasley (WR – BUF)
167. Denzel Mims (WR – NYJ)
168. Carlos Hyde (RB – SEA)
169. Giovani Bernard (RB – CIN)
170. Drew Lock (QB – DEN)
171. Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF)
172. Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
173. San Francisco 49ers D/ST
174. Baltimore Ravens D/ST
175. Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI)
176. Darryton Evans (RB – TEN)
177. Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV)
178. Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
179. John Ross (WR – CIN)
180. Will Dissly (TE – SEA)
181. Eric Ebron (TE – PIT)
182. Chicago Bears D/ST
183. New Orleans Saints D/ST
184. Buffalo Bills D/ST
185. Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
186. Denver Broncos D/ST
187. New England Patriots D/ST
188. Danny Amendola (WR – DET)
189. Cleveland Browns D/ST
190. Los Angeles Rams D/ST
191. Washington Football Team D/ST
192. Green Bay Packers D/ST
193. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
194. Derek Carr (QB – LV)
195. Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR – WAS)
196. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB)
197. Russell Gage (WR – ATL)
198. Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
199. Steven Sims (WR – WAS)
200. James Washington (WR – PIT)
201. Mohamed Sanu (WR – NE)
202. Josh Reynolds (WR – LAR)
203. Randall Cobb (WR – HOU)
204. Chris Thompson (RB – JAX)
205. Tennessee Titans D/ST
206. Sam Darnold (QB – NYJ)
207. Tyrod Taylor (QB – LAC)
208. Chris Herndon (TE – NYJ)
209. Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN)
210. Jamaal Williams (RB – GB)
211. Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF)
212. KJ Hamler (WR – DEN)
213. A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
214. Phillip Dorsett (WR – SEA)
215. Jace Sternberger (TE – GB)
216. Laviska Shenault (WR – JAX)
217. Darrel Williams (RB – KC)
218. Chris Conley (WR – JAX)
219. Tyrell Williams (WR – LV)
220. Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)
221. Isaiah Ford (WR – MIA)
222. Taysom Hill (QB/TE – NO)
223. Bryan Edwards (WR – LV)
224. Andy Isabella (WR – ARI)
225. Tre’Quan Smith (WR – NO)
226. Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
227. Lynn Bowden (WR – LV)
228. Ian Thomas (TE – CAR)
229. Greg Olsen (TE – SEA)
230. O.J. Howard (TE – TB)
231. Mitch Trubisky (QB – CHI)
232. Dwayne Haskins (QB – WAS)
233. Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – MIA)
234. Jalen Hurd (WR – SF)
235. Miles Boykin (WR – BAL)
236. Greg Ward (WR – PHI)
237. Zach Pascal (WR – IND)
238. Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
239. Nick Foles (QB – CHI)
240. Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
241. Darwin Thompson (RB – KC)
242. Jalen Richard (RB – LV)
243. Rex Burkhead (RB – NE)
244. LeSean McCoy (RB – TB)
245. Bryce Love (RB – WAS)
246. Peyton Barber (RB – WAS)
247. Ryquell Armstead (RB – JAX)
248. Ito Smith (RB – ATL)
249. Malcolm Brown (RB – LAR)
250. Jameis Winston (QB – NO)